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Monday, October 15, 2018

OTP 2018 October 15: The shift in focus from sport to politics

Since I’m hinting at it, here’s my shameless plug: if you can sit through four hours of football and its stoppage time, you can’t justify calling baseball boring. October belongs to America’s pastime. I feel that this whole landscape will look different a decade from now, with football at the lower half of the totem pole.

My opinion isn’t entirely biased. This issue with politics bleeding into the discussion is a serious crutch for an otherwise praised NFL, and until that’s no longer a factor, people are going to shift away. The NBA waters are nice these days too, I’m hearing.

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 15, 2018 at 08:26 AM | 1522 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, politics

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   1201. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:30 AM (#5770994)
I do also like the pseudo-aside Nate noted about polling models...

Again - most pollsters have shifted to LV models, but a surprising number (I've noted a couple) continue to be using RV, quite odd at this point in the cycle. A lot of them are releasing BOTH LV and RV models. A few are actually releasing multiple LV models.

I am not a pollster, but my understanding is that building an LV model entails a lot more than just "Are you likely to vote"... I think likelihood of voting is just one factor that the pollsters use together with questions like "did you vote last election" and last midterm... as well as factors like past turnout.

Again, it seems to me that Virginia in 2017 is instructive. The Democrats didn't just hit their best numbers, to at least some extent - they exceeded them. Why? Turnout - especially for D support - just hit levels that were such outliers, an LV model didn't capture them.

So, sure... I'd still want odds to bet on Beto. I'd still want odds to bet on the Ds taking the Senate (but - those odds wouldn't be 5-1... 3-1 might be enough for me to place a bet).

I think most reputable pollsters are going to be squeamish to employ any sort of LV model that looks a lot different than prior models... but - it's the Trump era. We have no shortage "never before" happening.
   1202. BrianBrianson Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:31 AM (#5770996)
I guess, but I've hauled my carcass down to the voting booth one or two dozen times in my life. I joined a party once to vote in the leadership convention. I even once volunteered with a campaign. But, I don't think I've every given a candidate a buck (or a quid). That would require a hell of a lot of enthusiasm on my part, that I've just never had.
   1203. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:34 AM (#5771003)
As the 538 excerpt points out, unless it’s measuring enthusiasm of the district itself, it doesn’t matter. If people nationwide are giving lots of money to Beto, it doesn’t necessarily say anything about his own constituents’ view of him. (Abortion Barbie is the obvious example.)

Moreover, I suspect that there is a much weaker correlation between contributions and enthusiasm than there used to be, because it’s so much easier to donate. When you had to go find out the candidate’s address by digging up his literature or making a phone call, and then had to go write out a check, get out a stamp and mail the thing, that’s shows some significant commitment. But if all you have to do is click on a link in a fundraising email or Facebook ad and put in your credit card information, well, even the biggest slackers can manage that.


But as it also points out - this isn't the case of a couple shining stars of money hauls.

It's broad-based and deep. It's happening, well, everywhere. Star candidates in deep red districts. Unknown candidates in districts that suddenly become competitive (i.e., Collins seat). Candidates in toss-ups. Candidates in lean R. Progressive candidates. Blue Dog candidates. Centrist candidates. Charisma candidates. Wonk candidates.

I'll point out - again, as TFA does - it's not just the money that says we might have a turnout outlier here.... We've had two years of special elections. We had 2017, in Virginia especially.

   1204. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5771010)
I guess, but I've hauled my carcass down to the voting booth one or two dozen times in my life. I joined a party once to vote in the leadership convention. I even once volunteered with a campaign. But, I don't think I've every given a candidate a buck (or a quid). That would require a hell of a lot of enthusiasm on my part, that I've just never had.


I gave a few bucks to Obama in 2008 - but actually, just in the early part of the primary season. Didn't bother post-nomination.

I did also donate to Dean in 2004.

Possible I don't recall, but I think this is the first cycle where I've donated in the midterms... not a lot - but probably a hundred bucks or so parceled out in 20 buck increments to a half dozen or so candidates.
   1205. McCoy Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:44 AM (#5771015)
Sure - all the money in the world didn't help Ossoff (though, once you include outside spending, the gap wasn't nearly so big, if not parity).

It got him about 4,000 votes shy of being a Congressman. Which is a helluva lot better than most Dems could do in a red district with no money to spend. If Ossoff was anything more than a totem for ticked off non Trump fans he would either a)have won that election or b)have used that election as a springboard for greater political clout within the party.
   1206. Greg K Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:45 AM (#5771017)
Moreover, I suspect that there is a much weaker correlation between contributions and enthusiasm than there used to be, because it’s so much easier to donate. When you had to go find out the candidate’s address by digging up his literature or making a phone call, and then had to go write out a check, get out a stamp and mail the thing, that’s shows some significant commitment. But if all you have to do is click on a link in a fundraising email or Facebook ad and put in your credit card information, well, even the biggest slackers can manage that.

Maybe if you could vote through facebook on your phone voter turnout would be higher too!
   1207. McCoy Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:47 AM (#5771020)
I gave money this year to the National and State parties because my wife has been fired up ever since Trump got elected and has been giving money to the Democrats and their candidates left and right. At this point if Abrams wins we'd better get an invite to the inauguration.
   1208. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5771029)
Caravan!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, it's this easy to whip a political party into a frenzy in 2018. Wild.
   1209. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5771031)
I wonder if Nate looked at how well-known a candidate is in his model for polling gains due to finances. I would think -- but it's only a hypothesis -- that unknown candidates have a larger marginal benefit from donation dollars than someone widely known.
   1210. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5771032)
Internal GOP Poll: 'We've Lost the Messaging Battle' on Tax Cuts

“If we can’t sell this to the American people, we ought to go into another line of work,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said in December, after his chamber approved the legislation.


Bipartisan agreement!
   1211. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:55 AM (#5771033)
   1212. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:59 AM (#5771036)
I wonder if Nate looked at how well-known a candidate is in his model for polling gains due to finances. I would think -- but it's only a hypothesis -- that unknown candidates have a larger marginal benefit from donation dollars than someone widely known.


At a CD level, who would that even apply to? Donna Shalala?

She's not even ON the list of D challengers (or Ds running for R seats) that lapped their R opponent fundraising-wise...

I cannot find a straight-forward list, but I don't even recognize any of the names - prior to this cycle that I see from various places noting the gaps.
   1213. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:00 AM (#5771039)
1180
Well, we wouldn't want a church to be <gasp> nice to homosexuals! I mean ... really!
Of course we should be nice to homosexuals. That’s not the issue. We should be nice to murderers and Republicans too.

But teaching homosexuals that it’s okay to act on their SSA—that gay sex is not a sin—is entirely different. Once you reach that point, you’ve strayed so far from Gospel that the words don’t even mean anything, it’s ####### Calvinball, the game with no rules.
   1214. McCoy Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5771042)
Once you reach that point, you’ve strayed so far from Gospel that the words don’t even mean anything, it’s ####### Calvinball, the game with no rules.

I'm pretty sure your typical human being has to stray pretty darn far every single day from the perfect teachings in order to merely exist on this planet.
   1215. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:06 AM (#5771045)
#1199:
Moreover, I suspect that there is a much weaker correlation between contributions and enthusiasm than there used to be, because it’s so much easier to donate. When you had to go find out the candidate’s address by digging up his literature or making a phone call, and then had to go write out a check, get out a stamp and mail the thing, that shows some significant commitment. But if all you have to do is click on a link in a fundraising email or Facebook ad and put in your credit card information, well, even the biggest slackers can manage that.

But the above premise would counter-imply a massive dearth of enthusiasm among Republican voters, based on their comparative lazy failure to flop their arms over and make those E-Z click donations. As Nate Silver writes, "Republican [fundraising] numbers have collapsed" at this slackiest of all times. But I don't believe that the Dem/GOP enthusiasm gap is as great as the money gap. 538 is grappling with that in public, and also in the databank center.



#1205:
Sure - all the money in the world didn't help Ossoff (though, once you include outside spending, the gap wasn't nearly so big, if not parity).
It got him about 4,000 votes shy of being a Congressman. Which is a helluva lot better than most Dems could do in a red district with no money to spend. If Ossoff was anything more than a totem for ticked off non Trump fans he would either a)have won that election or b)have used that election as a springboard for greater political clout within the party.

The winner of that special election, Rep. Karen Handel, just got outraised by more than 2-to-1 by another nobody. But this time, all Republican eyes and wallets have a lot to deal with, and won't be laser-focused on rescuing her.
   1216. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5771060)

But the above premise would counter-imply a massive dearth of enthusiasm among Republican voters, based on their comparative lazy failure to flop their arms over and make those E-Z click donations.
I said "slackers," not "geriatric people who don't know how to use the Internet."
   1217. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5771062)
strayed so far from Gospel that the words don’t even mean anything,


Don't remember any words at all regarding gay sex in the Gospels. Unless you count the Secret Gospel of Mark.
   1218. McCoy Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:18 AM (#5771065)

The winner of that special election, Rep. Karen Handel, just got outraised by more than 2-to-1 by another nobody. But this time, all Republican eyes and wallets have a lot to deal with, and won't be laser-focused on rescuing her.


Handel may have been outraised but Handel has/had a sizable warchest for this election. Handel has always been an interesting candidate because for the most part Georgia voters and Georgia GOP voters have generally been lukewarm to her. She was fortunate enough to run for SoS of GA at a time when the state was going red and win but you do have to give her credit for convincing GOP voters and voters in general to give her the spot but other than that one time she couldn't win an election up until the 2017 special and she just eked out a win there when she probably should have won that handily. Now she is probably going to eke out a win this year and it will be interesting to see what happens in 2020.
   1219. dlf Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:22 AM (#5771068)
In the realm of Things that Would Ordinarily be Pretty Decently Big Stories in an Administration that wasn't a Ridiculous Disaster...

Ben Carson had announced last week that his Deputy, Suzanne Tufts, was going to be moving to Interior to become their new inspector general.


FWIW, Interior said today that Tufts was NOT going to become the IG there.
   1220. BrianBrianson Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:22 AM (#5771069)
I'm pretty sure your typical human being has to stray pretty darn far every single day from the perfect teachings in order to merely exist on this planet.


Have you sat down and read that thing? Technically, we're not even allowed to go to the bathroom.
   1221. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:22 AM (#5771070)
Caravan!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, it's this easy to whip a political party into a frenzy in 2018


If the political party relies on The Stupids to form their base? Sure. Convincing Stupids of anything is easy. Once you're willing to reject massive amounts of scientific evidence in favor of evolution (or, say, global warming) you've already conditioned yourself to be a credulous rube. From there you're off to the races. PIZZAGATE! DEEP STATE! SOROS!
   1222. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5771073)
If the political party relies on The Stupids to form their base? Sure. Convincing Stupids of anything is easy. Once you're willing to reject massive amounts of scientific evidence in favor of evolution (or, say, global warming) you've already conditioned yourself to be a credulous rube. From there you're off to the races. PIZZAGATE! DEEP STATE! SOROS!


My understanding is that the RCCC didn't even bother having a human write up this spot - it wrote itself...

Open with the black guy disrespecting the anthem, move into roving antifa gangs in the streets, finish up with invaders to the south -- and a Jew handing out money to all of them to make it work.
   1223. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5771078)
Don't remember any words at all regarding gay sex in the Gospels.
There was plenty. Marriage is between a man and a woman, and sex is for married people. Not hard to read between those lines.

Of course, Jesus also pushed the Golden Rule as universal, and we probably don't want all the masochists out there practicing it on us. So it's not like the Gospels don't have some dodgy bits.
   1224. Ishmael Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5771080)
Don't remember any words at all regarding gay sex in the Gospels. Unless you count the Secret Gospel of Mark.

It’s possible that the healing of the Centurion’s servant passage in Luke and Matthew (I think this is the only miracle story that appears to originate from the Q Source, interestingly) refers to a male sex slave, or pederasty relationship. It’s not the kind of thing we could know for sure, though. And there isn’t really any teaching about homosexuality in the story. It’s more concerned with the gentile mission, I think.

Of course, the naked young man that probably inspired Morton Smith is also in the actual Gospel of Mark.
   1225. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:32 AM (#5771081)
At this point if Abrams wins we'd better get an invite to the inauguration.


If Abrams wins, just come ITP. It will be a party in the streets.
   1226. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:32 AM (#5771082)
Following on #1218--

With 18 days to go, Rep. Handel has small advantages in cash on hand (about $250,000) and in polling (about 2%). That makes her one of the lucky ones.
   1227. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5771090)
How a ###### up system managed to get even worse...

The Department of Education and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) have both released reviews of PSLF that back up Frotman's CFPB findings.

The department's recent report card for PSLF, the program's first, was a revelation, describing a scale of dysfunction that surprised many in the loan industry. It found that, over the past year, nearly 29,000 applications for Public Service Loan Forgiveness were submitted and processed. Of those, 99 percent were denied, the vast majority for "not meeting program requirements."

Ninety-nine percent.

Just days after the Education Department released its data, the federal government's independent watchdog weighed in with the results of its own investigation. Investigators from the GAO found that, more than a decade into the program, many borrowers and servicers still appear confused about basic requirements.
   1228. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5771092)
Don't remember any words at all regarding gay sex in the Gospels. Unless you count the Secret Gospel of Mark.


It shouldn't matter anyways, nobody should live their lives according to goyish fanfiction.
   1229. Lassus Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:45 AM (#5771096)
But teaching homosexuals that it’s okay to act on their SSA—that gay sex is not a sin—is entirely different.
Fuck off, dolt.
   1230. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:50 AM (#5771102)
Well, if a guy can be as careless as to kill a guy in an interrogation, I suppose it’s totes possible he’s not the most careful driver, either.


Saudi Arabia probably has poor signage. He likely missed an end-bike-lane.
   1231. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5771106)
But teaching homosexuals that it’s okay to act on their SSA—that gay sex is not a sin—is entirely different. Once you reach that point, you’ve strayed so far from Gospel that the words don’t even mean anything, it’s ####### Calvinball, the game with no rules.


Ding! You got it in one "that the words don’t even mean anything". Of course I am an atheist, I think much of the sentiment in most religions is fine, but much of it is nonsense and effectively means nothing.

Mostly I let the religious folks argue who is and is not a true Scotsman. And AFAICT when two such get together and disagree they then split into two denominations and call each other heretics and sinners.
   1232. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5771113)
But teaching homosexuals that it’s okay to act on their SSA—that gay sex is not a sin—is entirely different.

#### off, dolt.


In the old days you'd be tortured for openly rejecting Papist dogma. But we live in the now, where I'm the jerk for pointing it out.
   1233. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5771114)
Handel may have been outraised but Handel has/had a sizable warchest for this election. Handel has always been an interesting candidate because for the most part Georgia voters and Georgia GOP voters have generally been lukewarm to her.


Generally speaking, Karen Handel will do or say anything to get the next promotion. ANYTHING. She has no core at all.
   1234. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:01 PM (#5771116)
And AFAICT when two such get together and disagree they then split into two denominations and call each other heretics and sinners.
Well, are you Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1879, or Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1912?
   1235. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:09 PM (#5771125)
Northern Conservative Baptist great Lakes Region Council of 1912!
   1236. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5771127)
Sketchy poll results...

WASHINGTON (AP) — Just 1 in 4 people thinks Brett Kavanaugh was completely honest when as a Supreme Court nominee he gave sworn testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee last month, with Republicans and Democrats holding starkly distinct opinions of his credibility, according to a poll released Friday.

The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey also found that the public holds tepid views of how major players handled the extraordinary battle, which culminated Oct. 6 in an exhausted Senate’s near party line confirmation of Kavanaugh. President Donald Trump, Senate Republicans and Democrats and the FBI each earned approval from 32 percent or less of the poll’s respondents.


1 in 4 feels a bit high... Looking at the crosstabs, I see a clear over-sampling of OTP yakkers...
   1237. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:14 PM (#5771134)
Amusingly at this point no one on Earth is a likely Democratic presidential nominee. It is a forest of unlikely candidates as far as the eye can see.

Philippe Reines has his eye on someone:
“It’s curious why Hillary Clinton’s name isn’t in the mix—either conversationally or in formal polling—as a 2020 candidate,” said Philippe Reines, her longtime gatekeeper in the Senate and at the State Department. “She’s younger than Donald Trump by a year. She’s younger than Joe Biden by four years. Is it that she’s run before? This would be Bernie Sanders’ second time, and Biden’s third time. Is it lack of support? She had 65 million people vote for her.”

Even if half of those people would no longer support Clinton in another election, Reines argued, “there’s no one in the Democratic Party who has anywhere near a base of 32 million people. That’s multiples of what a Sanders or a Warren have.”

Reines said his biggest fear for the Democratic Party is that they realize, only in hindsight, that dismissing Clinton for the errors she made in 2016 was a mistake. “Chalking the loss up to her being a failed candidate is an oversimplification,” Reines said. “She is smarter than most, tougher than most, she could raise money easier than most, and it was an absolute fight to the death.”

She may not even have to run - just wait for the inevitable brokered convention to see the light.
   1238. McCoy Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:15 PM (#5771135)
and it was an absolute fight to the death.”

Who died?
   1239. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:16 PM (#5771136)
That's why nobody loves you, YR.
   1240. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:18 PM (#5771139)
I'm pretty sure that isn't why.
   1241. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:18 PM (#5771141)
Wow. At this point, it has to be said - Clapper's obsession with HRC surpasses even Ray's. Do you run a google search every morning?
   1242. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:19 PM (#5771143)
Northern Conservative Baptist great Lakes Region Council of 1912!


Splitter!
   1243. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:21 PM (#5771144)
Wow. At this point, it has to be said - Clapper's obsession with HRC surpasses even Ray's. Do you run a google search every morning?


No. He's merely an empty vessel into which the RNC pours their daily talking points.
   1244. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5771149)
Marriage is between a man and a woman, and sex is for married people. Not hard to read between those lines.


None of the disciples is married, Magdalene is a whore, and his mom's a virgin. One reason Jesus was considered beyond the plae is he had no wife.

There was the marriage feast at Cana, but everybody got drunk and made out withthe bridemaids.
   1245. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5771151)
Wow. At this point, it has to be said - Clapper's obsession with HRC surpasses even Ray's. Do you run a google search every morning?

Are you under the impression that I'm feeding lines to Philippe Reines, or ghostwriting articles Politico features as its lead item? I'm not running Hillary's nationwide comeback tour, either.
   1246. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:30 PM (#5771156)
Since 2003, I've worked continuously 50-60 hours a week, lot of weekend work, too. For the past two years, I've worked ten hour 330+ days per.

I could use more sleep.
   1247. Ishmael Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:30 PM (#5771157)
None of the disciples is married, Magdalene is a whore, and his mom's a virgin.

Jesus heals Peter's mother in law in the synoptics (Mark 1:29-31).

Mary Magdalene isn't really a prostitute in the gospels either. Based only on the gospel material, she’s barely a character at all. You have to conflate her (as later tradition did) with Mary of Bethany and with the woman taken in adultery and the sinful woman in Luke 7 to create the character of a fallen woman turned disciple.
   1248. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5771158)

Of course, the naked young man that probably inspired Morton Smith is also in the actual Gospel of Mark


Was Smith a hoaxer?
   1249. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:38 PM (#5771161)
Based only on the gospel material, she’s barely a character at all.


So maybe there's all kinds of family life going on, but it's not important to the story? I'm not a believer (though I've had some mysfical experiences), but I'm pretty interested in Christianity from nearly every angle. Doesn't seem like Jesus was much interested in starting a new religion.

I appreciate your posts.

   1250. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5771164)
Are you under the impression that I'm feeding lines to Philippe Reines, or ghostwriting articles Politico features as its lead item? I'm not running Hillary's nationwide comeback tour, either.


He is under the impression that you are voluntarily choosing what to post, and your obsession with HRC is manifesting in the posts you make. Are you suggesting there is some random process which posts under your name? Maybe someone else is posting and we should attribute those posts to them? Are you dodging responsibility for your own posts?
   1251. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5771165)
I'm not running Hillary's nationwide comeback tour, either.


Don't be so hard on yourself - sometimes an employer just happens to be looking for other qualities beyond determination, perseverance, preparation, and dedication to fill a position.

You've given it everything you have; there was just a lot of competition.
   1252. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:45 PM (#5771167)
He's merely an empty vessel into which the RNC pours their daily talking points.


Yup. It's pointless to repeat, because making the point would suggest that Republicans and "conservatives" are reasonable mammals open to rational thought, but whatever. The GOP's only play is precisely what Trump and Clapper are going with. Hillary hate. Hate for brown skinned refugees. Authoritarianism. They quite literally have no program or platform. All they have is hatred of any potential "other" than cis het white men, and Christian theocracy.
   1253. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5771168)
Mary Magdalene isn't really a prostitute in the gospels either. Based only on the gospel material, she’s barely a character at all. You have to conflate her (as later tradition did) with Mary of Bethany and with the woman taken in adultery and the sinful woman in Luke 7 to create the character of a fallen woman turned disciple.


For most Christians, all women look the same to them.
   1254. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:50 PM (#5771170)
Easily my favorite thing about Christianity is American gospel music. If you don't count Christian rock.

American music is our most redeeming feature, period.
   1255. BDC Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:51 PM (#5771171)
I dunno. If people in committed gay relationships, building homes and families together, are sinful in your eyes, you may be a wee bit too fundamentalist of any stripe. Just my opinion, mind you. Carry on condemning evil if you like …
   1256. McCoy Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:53 PM (#5771173)
Since 2003, I've worked continuously 50-60 hours a week, lot of weekend work, too. For the past two years, I've worked ten hour 330+ days per.

I could use more sleep.


Apparently in the hotel business the expectation for managers is to work at least 10 hours a day. In my first handful of years working for hotels I did not know this which proved problematic for me because it caused all kinds of stress and troubles for me when I would get scheduled a morning shift or why I was scheduled at a certain time for a morning shift. I would come in at 5:30 in the morning for the breakfast and lunch shift and by 2pm I was ready to leave and yet my boss would be giving me tasks to do and then it would turn into can I leave, do I stay? Then night shifts would start at 2pm despite the fact that nothing happened in the building until 5pm. So you'd be twiddling your thumbs with nothing to do for 3 hours. Couldn't figure out why until years later I discovered that the expectation was 10 hours per day. The first time I discovered that was during a job interview in which the F&B director told me quite clearly several times in the interview process that the job is 10 hours a day 5 days a week and it was even put on the job offer. I took it to mean that I didn't have to work any minute over 10 hours each day and so I didn't. Didn't look at emails after work, didn't answer the phone, didn't look at texts, and I most certainly didn't come in on my days off. As soon as the 10 hours were up I was out the door.

My current job has an expectation of 50 hours a week but I don't do 50 hours. I usually do between 40 to 45 hours.
   1257. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:56 PM (#5771176)
If people in committed gay relationships, building homes and families together, are sinful in your eyes, you may be a wee bit too fundamentalist of any stripe.


You're not approaching the question as they would. (You're approaching it as I would, which would be a modern approach, but not as religious/Catholic doctrinaire thinkers would.) Catholic dogma is pretty one dimensional on the purpose of marriage. It's there to make babies. "Go forth and multiply." Sex is there to make babies. Marriage is there to make sure the babies are verifiable and made within the confines of traditional patriarchical culture and norms. Sex to make babies is good (so long as it's in a Church sanctioned marriage.) Hetero sex that isn't baby making; bad. Gay sex can't make babies; bad. All sex for them is about the damned rug rats.
   1258. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5771177)
   1259. Ishmael Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5771180)
Was Smith a hoaxer?

That's the most likely explanation, I think.
   1260. BDC Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5771181)
"Go forth and multiply." Sex is there to make babies. Marriage is there to make sure the babies are verifiable and made within the confines of traditional patriarchical culture and norms


I'm reading a pretty interesting book at the moment by Michelle Perrot, called The Bedroom. It's about a lot more than sex, but sex is one topic. She discusses French and other Western 19th-century concerns about the sin of onanism, which we associate with masturbation, but which 200 years ago was more associated with non-procreative partner sex (spilling that seed anywhere but the operative place). Couples not as fertile as others were usually suspected of being up to such hijinks, and both priests and doctors would intervene if they inferred that a lot of onanism was going on.
   1261. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5771182)
   1262. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5771183)
Snake handlers are pretty damned fascinating, too, and all the Holy Ghost stuff. The volatility that shakes up social norms rather than fortify them.
   1263. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:03 PM (#5771185)
Re: #1237--

Ipsos just turned out an 11% Democratic generic ballot margin. YouGov just measured a 39% Trump approval rating. Data Orbital just released a "Sinema by 8%" poll in Arizona. PPP just put out a "Rosen by 2%" poll in Nevada. We've already been talking about the blue wave of money in the House of Representatives. Why the hell SHOULDN'T Yankee Clapper prefer to talk about Hillary Clinton crawling out of the grave, and into the 2020 Democratic convention?
   1264. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5771186)
Wow. At this point, it has to be said - Clapper's obsession with HRC surpasses even Ray's. Do you run a google search every morning?


No. He's merely an empty vessel into which the RNC pours their daily talking points.

And quite methodically, too. They've got it down to a science:

GOP war room blasts endless stream of criticism at Democrats, with Warren its latest target
The Republican Party’s research director, Mike Reed, found out about Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s DNA test before he got out of bed Monday. From his bedroom, the GOP attack machine started whirring.

At the White House, President Trump and his aides initially played down the news. Adviser Kellyanne Conway told reporters “that doesn’t interest me” and Trump said “Who cares?” when asked about the new evidence that the Massachusetts Democrat had Native American heritage.

But the Republican story began to change at 9:46 a.m., when Reed blasted out his first email to thousands of reporters and allies, laying out new talking points for his side — that Warren’s test result showed a “minuscule” percentage of native heritage in her DNA and would not end the political problems that had beset her since opponents suggested she had advanced her career by claiming such ancestry.

“Having as little as 1/512th Native American ties does not give you the right to claim minority status,” he wrote — a quote that soon started showing up on Twitter feeds and in news stories across the country.

It was just the beginning of a week-long anti-Warren onslaught that the Republican National Committee worked to orchestrate from its headquarters in Washington, an effort that helped blunt what Warren had hoped would be a moment of vindication before her likely 2020 presidential campaign.

And it was another trophy for a team of about 60 GOP researchers, bookers and attack dogs who spend their time churning out the ammunition that conservative media and Trump supporters use daily to pummel the president’s foes.

The relentless stream of carefully curated — and sometimes misleading — political hits has been throwing Democrats off message for months while steadily stoking the daily fires of conservative outrage that power Trump’s political movement.

“I understand their weaponry, and frankly I don’t underestimate it at all,” said one aide to a Democrat considering a 2020 campaign, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss strategy. “They are really effective when they want to be. Within an hour, they are all on the same message and they are all pushing it.” ...

And wherever they go, PFC Clapper will be marching in step, just a minuscule part of a big machine.
   1265. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5771187)
I'm reading a pretty interesting book at the moment by Michelle Perrot, called The Bedroom. It's about a lot more than sex, but sex is one topic. She discusses French and other Western 19th-century concerns about the sin of onanism, which we associate with masturbation, but which 200 years ago was more associated with non-procreative partner sex (spilling that seed anywhere but the operative place). Couples not as fertile as others were usually suspected of being up to such hijinks, and both priests and doctors would intervene if they inferred that a lot of onanism was going on.


Makes sense. Traditional Christianity is massively concerned with making sure every orgasm is explicitly pointed toward more Christian babies. There's a reason they align so easily and readily with nativist and nationalist ideologies.
   1266. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5771188)

Brian Kemp is doing everything he can to eliminate Stacy Abrams votes.


Shelby County vs. Holder's maybe the worst SCOTUS decision ever.
   1267. . Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5771189)
The "sin" stuff was invented at a time where kids were dropping left and right, medicine was useless, and everyone was poor. Tribal customs and norms were thereby propagated that would steer people toward reproducing, both to keep the species rolling and to keep the tribe rolling.

Perfectly understandable, but the premises have long since expired.
   1268. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5771191)
“I understand their weaponry, and frankly I don’t underestimate it at all,” said one aide to a Democrat considering a 2020 campaign, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss strategy. “They are really effective when they want to be. Within an hour, they are all on the same message and they are all pushing it.” ...


Clapper and Jason get their talking points pretty quickly, yes.
   1269. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5771192)
Also, the conservative voting block is arch-Catholic. Shocked it's not more remarked upon.
   1270. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5771193)
American music is our most redeeming feature, period.


Hmmmm.... IDK. Probably an answer better for the OTC thread, but I'd go with cinema (or cinema/TV).

I'll admit that - beyond the blues - the distinctly and inarguably American genres... C&W, Jazz, rap, maybe gospel, etc are not my cup of tea - though, there's plenty to like there and even among the good stuff I wouldn't say I "like", I still recognize the greatness.

My 'favorites' list certainly has plenty of American artists - Bruce, Dylan, Petty... AND a good chunk of the stuff I do love/revere - the Stones, Beatles, etc - obviously makes no apologies for its American roots.

But, all in all? My favorite still-relevant groups tend to be heavily Canadian weighted. My 'revered dinosaurs' feature an awful lot of British invasion artists... A lot of seminal movements that spawned offshoots I like - punk, for one - probably would be called more British than American. Even a good chunk of my guilty pleasures - AC/DC, Men at Work, etc - there's an over-representation of Australians.
   1271. . Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5771194)
There's a reason they align so easily and readily with nativist and nationalist ideologies.


They don't in the least. Nationalism is anathema to the Church. It's a competitor ideology.

Moreover, the vast, vast majority of the "brown people" the "nativists" want to "keep out" are Catholic or otherwise Christian. Mexico, home of the "rapists," is 80%-plus Papist. Maybe Trump just mispronounced the word.
   1272. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5771196)
Easily my favorite thing about Christianity is American gospel music. If you don't count Christian rock.


blessed be the mystery of love...
   1273. . Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5771197)
And it was funny indeed to hear the usual suspect types INSIST for months on end that Hillary was done.
   1274. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5771199)

GOP war room blasts endless stream of criticism at Democrats, with Warren its latest target


It seems to me that the biggest GOP boogeymen this cycle are Pelosi, Clinton, and Warren...

Trying to put my finger on what they have in common besides party affiliation.... what could it be.... what could it be...
   1275. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:12 PM (#5771201)
And it was funny indeed to hear the usual suspect types INSIST for months on end that Hillary was done.


Somehow, I suspect a guy who fumbled Gore's 2000 rapid response team, was part of the 2008 primary debacle team, AND the 2016 team might not be the best "pundit" to give much weight to.

That is, if one doesn't also give any weight to the fact that exactly TWO people keep bringing her up.
   1276. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:12 PM (#5771202)

“I understand their weaponry, and frankly I don’t underestimate it at all,” said one aide to a Democrat considering a 2020 campaign, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss strategy. “They are really effective when they want to be. Within an hour, they are all on the same message and they are all pushing it.” ...


I may come around on the question of counterinsurgency.
   1277. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5771204)
That story in 1261:

Say you live in Georgia. You’re eager to vote in this year’s election—a tight race between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Trump acolyte Brian Kemp—so you fill out an absentee ballot and mail it in. Then, days or weeks after the election, you receive a notice in the mail. The signature on your absentee ballot, it explains, looked different from the signature on your voter-registration card. So an election official threw out your ballot. There is nothing you can do. Your vote has been voided.

If Georgia’s signature-mismatch law remains in effect through the November election, this fate will befall thousands of would-be voters. The statute directs elections officials to apply amateur handwriting analysis to voters’ signatures and reject any potential “mismatch.” Nearly 500 ballots in Gwinnett County alone have already been rejected for mismatch, a disproportionate number of them cast by minority voters. Now the American Civil Liberties Union of Georgia is suing, demanding that the state give all citizens an opportunity to cure ballots rejected for mismatch. Its suit will help determine how successfully Georgia will suppress minority votes in the upcoming race.

The GOP will relinquish democracy before they relinquish power.

   1278. . Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5771205)
That is, if one doesn't also give any weight to the fact that exactly TWO people keep bringing her up.


Yeah, like she isn't out there trying to build up momentum for a possible run. (*) Pull the other one.

(*) In her fever dreams, she probably actually thinks there's a shot she'll be "drafted" to run. That's certainly her fantasy.
   1279. perros Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5771208)
The distinctly and inarguably American genres... C&W, Jazz, rap, maybe gospel, etc are not my cup of tea -


Almost all originating from the South, or descendants of Southerners.

D'ja know Tom Petty's paternal grandmother was full Cherokee?
   1280. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5771213)
Yeah, like she isn't out there trying to build up momentum for a possible run. (*) Pull the other one.

(*) In her fever dreams, she probably actually thinks there's a shot she'll be "drafted" to run. That's certainly her fantasy.


You can do what you like, but before you spend too much time lobbying for the job - you should talk to Clapper about disappointment and the furious competition for the role of managing her comeback tour.
   1281. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5771214)
He's merely an empty vessel into which the RNC pours their daily talking points.


Change "RNC" to "DNC" and that would apply to virtually everyone here who is on the left.

I don't get the effort to claim the high ground by claiming that someone is merely the flip side of all of you. It shows an amusing lack of self awareness.
   1282. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5771215)
1281 shows an amusing lack of self awareness.
   1283. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5771216)
Ray, #1281:
I don't get the effort to claim the high ground by claiming that someone is merely the flip side of all of you. It shows an amusing lack of self awareness.


It sure does! They're just a bunch of liars, virtue signalers, and derangement syndrome victims.
   1284. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5771217)
1281: Indeed. I don’t post anything without running it past Chuck Schumer first.
   1285. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5771218)
Almost all originating from the South, or descendants of Southerners.


I.e. "where the black folk are." A simple truth of life is that white Europeans have shitty music.
   1286. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:27 PM (#5771219)
More on the crooks who can't shoot straight, even while Dear Leader provides all the ridiculous smokescreen they need...

Interior said yesterday that Suzanne Tufts, a Republican political appointee who served as assistant secretary at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, “was referred to the Department by the White House as a potential candidate for a position in the Inspector General’s office.”

The White House denial that it picked Tufts is the latest in a round of finger pointing by the White House, Interior and HUD on the choice of Tufts, a GOP operative with no experiencing investigating allegations of unethical behavior. The Interior IG's office has opened several investigations into Zinke's actions, and a report obtained by POLITICO on Thursday faulted him for seeking to skirt or alter department policies to justify his taxpayer-funded trips with his wife.
   1287. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:27 PM (#5771220)
I don’t post anything without running it past Chuck Schumer first.


I have Hillary on speed dial, obviously.
   1288. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5771221)
As for me, I'm actually Nancy Pelosi...
   1289. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:30 PM (#5771222)
John Lewis lives in my shoe.
   1290. RoyalFlush Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5771223)
D'ja know Tom Petty's paternal grandmother was full Cherokee?


Thanks, but I'll wait for the DNA test.
   1291. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5771224)
To be fair, as Nancy Pelosi - I actually just do whatever George Soros tells me.
   1292. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5771225)
Jason Lewis (R-MN):

“I don’t want to be callous here, but how traumatizing was it?” Lewis said on the show. “How many women at some point in their life have a man come on to them, place their hand on their shoulder or maybe even their thigh, kiss them, and they would rather not have it happen, but is that really something that’s going to be seared in your memory that you’ll need therapy for?”
   1293. McCoy Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:32 PM (#5771226)
I come up with my crazy beliefs and views all by myself.
   1294. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:33 PM (#5771227)
I come up with my crazy beliefs and views all by myself.


Why put so much effort into it?

You could just pick those you disagree with politically and take the opposite side automatically... like... ahem... some people.
   1295. BrianBrianson Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5771232)
It’s curious why Hillary Clinton’s name isn’t in the mix—either conversationally or in formal polling—as a 2020 candidate


Well, Nixon won in '68

Stevenson lost in '56

Dewey lost in '44

Bryan lost in '08

Bryan lost in '00

Cleveland won in '92

Van Buren lost in '48

Clay lost in '44

Harrison won in '40

Clay lost in '32

Jackson won in '28

Pinckney lost in '08

Jefferson won in '00

Overall, the retreads just don't have a great track record.
   1296. Ishmael Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5771240)
But teaching homosexuals that it’s okay to act on their SSA—that gay sex is not a sin—is entirely different. Once you reach that point, you’ve strayed so far from Gospel that the words don’t even mean anything, it’s ####### Calvinball, the game with no rules.

Going back to what you say here, Davo, I think it depends on where you are coming from.

I understand the desire to approach a religious ethic, or any moral position, with a kind of seriousness and humility that accepts the parts that you find difficult as well as those you find easy. I think once you get into that mindset it can be tempting to take a position because it’s hard, because it tests your resolve to defend it and to live it. And sometimes that can even be an admirable thing to do.

All I’d say is, particularly when those positions have practical consequences for the lives of other people, I think you have a responsibility to take seriously the grounds of those difficult positions. Now, you’re an evangelical Christian, I think you’ve said, so I presume it’s less important to you what the Pope believes than what the Bible says. And it is not an anti-religious attack, I believe, to say that there is a lot of contradictory material in the New Testament, a lot of nonsense, a lot of strangeness that we tend to do our best to skip over or assimilate, and many statements that most Christians even would find flatly immoral and simply ignore.

On homosexuality specifically, I have commented on this before, I think it’s true that some New Testament writers condemn male-male sex. But I think the reasons they do so, and the context they understand, are alien to the experience and even the category of homosexuality as it exists in the modern world. And they almost completely (it’s possible there is one statement on the subject in Romans, but there’s an element of ambiguity to it) ignore same sex female relations. I could go into this further but I'm going over old ground, I think.

I don’t have a dog in the fight, exactly. I’m not a liberal Christian defending the Bible, and I don’t take it as authoritative myself. But I do try to take it seriously. And that doesn’t mean simply taking the hardest readings on any question.

Whatever conclusion you come to, I think Christians who rely on Biblical authority have a responsibility to take these difficulties seriously, too.

Of course, if you’re just trolling us, ignore the above.
   1297. BrianBrianson Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5771241)
I.e. "where the black folk are." A simple truth of life is that white Europeans have shitty music.


To quote Stan Rogers "But no apologies, of course, to Morris Dancers".
   1298. Greg K Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5771249)
To quote Stan Rogers "But no apologies, of course, to Morris Dancers".

That is hands down my favourite of his songs.
   1299. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:52 PM (#5771250)
I'm sure HRC will bounce around the circuit and make news and sell books and do speeches; that's what that ilk does.

But she's done as a candidate for anything. Lazy columnists musing about her being relevant is more about getting clicks than serious analysis. But that won't stop Clapper from breathlessly linking to the next one who does it, and pretending that it Says Something Important, and using it as grist for his smugness mill. After all, if he keeps "proving" he's smarter than everyone, it masks his inability to contribute anything original.
   1300. BrianBrianson Posted: October 19, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5771258)
I mean, I feel like I should say Northwest Passage, or Barrett's Privateers. But for me, it's probably The Wreck of the Athens Queen.

Or, you know, White Collar Holler.
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