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Monday, October 15, 2018

OTP 2018 October 15: The shift in focus from sport to politics

Since I’m hinting at it, here’s my shameless plug: if you can sit through four hours of football and its stoppage time, you can’t justify calling baseball boring. October belongs to America’s pastime. I feel that this whole landscape will look different a decade from now, with football at the lower half of the totem pole.

My opinion isn’t entirely biased. This issue with politics bleeding into the discussion is a serious crutch for an otherwise praised NFL, and until that’s no longer a factor, people are going to shift away. The NBA waters are nice these days too, I’m hearing.

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 15, 2018 at 08:26 AM | 1522 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, politics

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   1401. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 20, 2018 at 10:10 AM (#5771676)
I SAID JUANABOUT OBAMA
   1402. Count Posted: October 20, 2018 at 10:21 AM (#5771678)
I'm sure the Hillary-watchers here are equally interested in other nominees who did not become president. Mitt Romney is going to be a senator, and he's already in classic Mitt form - softening / walking back his anti-Trump stance in 2016 last week:

The former presidential candidate and governor headlined a rally for Rep. Martha McSally on Friday in Gilbert, Arizona, to help boost her campaign to fill the Senate seat being left open by Sen. Jeff Flake’s departure, but comments Romney made after the event have drawn some criticism.

When Romney was asked what happened with his efforts to stop Donald Trump from becoming president in 2016, Romney denied being a leader in the so-called "never Trump" movement.

“I don't think that was the case,” Romney said.

“President Trump was not the person I wanted to become the nominee of our party, but he's president now. The policies he's promoted have been pretty effective. And I support a lot of those policies. When there's a place where I disagree, I point that out,” he said.


In 2016, Romney had predicted:

Let me explain why I say that. First on the economy. If Donald Trump’s plans were ever implemented, the country would sink into prolonged recession. A few examples. His proposed 35 percent tariff-like penalties would instigate a trade war and that would raise prices for consumers, kill our export jobs and lead entrepreneurs and businesses of all stripes to flee America.

His tax plan in combination with his refusal to reform entitlements and honestly address spending would balloon the deficit and the national debt. So even though Donald Trump has offered very few specific economic plans, what little he has said is enough to know that he would be very bad for American workers and for American families.

...

Now let me turn to national security and the safety of our homes and loved ones. Mr. Trump’s bombast is already alarming the allies and fueling the enmity of our enemies. Insulting all Muslims will keep many of them from fully engaging with us in the urgent fight against ISIS, and for what purpose? Muslim terrorists would only have to lie about their religion to enter the country.

...

We will only really know if he’s a real deal or a phony if he releases his tax returns and the tape of his interview with The New York Times. I predict that there are more bombshells in his tax returns. I predict that he doesn’t give much, if anything, to the disabled and to our veterans. I predict that he told The New York Times that his immigration talk is just that — talk.

And I predict that despite his promise to do so, first made over a year ago, that he will never ever release his tax returns. Never — not the returns under audit; not even the returns that are no longer being audited. He has too much to hide. Nor will he authorize the release of the tapes that he made with The New York Times.

If I’m right, you’ll have all the proof you need to know that Donald Trump is indeed a phony. Attacking me as he surely will won’t prove him any less of a phony. It’s entirely in his hands to prove me wrong. All he has to do is release his back taxes like he promised he would and let us hear what he said behind closed doors to The New York Times.

...

I understand the anger Americans feel today. In the past, our presidents have channeled that anger and forged it into resolve, into endurance and high purpose, and into the will to defeat the enemies of freedom. Our anger was transformed into energy directed for good.

Mr. Trump is directing our anger for less than noble purposes. He creates scapegoats of Muslims and Mexican immigrants. He calls for the use of torture. He calls for killing the innocent children and family members of terrorists. He cheers assaults on protesters. He applauds the prospect of twisting the Constitution to limit First Amendment freedom of the press.

This is the very brand of anger that has led other nations into the abyss.

Here’s what I know. Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud. His promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump University.

(APPLAUSE)

He’s playing the members of the American public for suckers. He gets a free ride to the White House and all we get is a lousy hat.

(LAUGHTER)

His domestic policies would lead to recession. His foreign policies would make America and the world less safe. He has neither the temperament nor the judgment to be president and his personal qualities would mean that America would cease to be a shining city on a hill.



We don't have a recession, but otherwise pretty good calls by Romney. What do you think changed Romney's mind about Trump being a dangerous fraud ?

Some conservatives, aghast that Donald Trump leads their party, blamed liberals for being too mean to past nominees like Romney. Nope! Romney is as craven and unprincipled as we all remember.
   1403. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 20, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5771689)
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5bca4851e4b0a8f17eec6001
   1404. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 20, 2018 at 11:50 AM (#5771690)
Quayle ran for the Republican nomination in 2000.

More accurately, Quayle ran for the Republican nomination from April through September of 1999, withdrawing not long after finishing 8th in the infamous Ames Straw Poll in Iowa. He never made it to 2000 - no votes & no delegates.
Good lord David. Either stop nit picking, or stop complaining when others pick your nits. Dan Quayle ran for the 2000 Republican Presidential nomination, just like Rick Perry and Lindsay Graham ran for the 2016 republican Presidential nomination even though they dropped out in 2015. Your clarification was unnecessary.
Are you
(a) confusing me and YC?
(b) Doxxing YC?
(c) Trying to flatter YC by calling him by my name?
   1405. perros Posted: October 20, 2018 at 11:53 AM (#5771692)
Mitt Romney a GOPer politician? Who knew?

Trump has been really good so far for his team, deapite any ######## and moaning at the edges. And it's not like GOPers give a #### about the 99 percent anyways. Trump's the perfect guy to convince no small part of them all aboard.
   1406. perros Posted: October 20, 2018 at 11:55 AM (#5771693)
And anybody who bought GOPer never trump hogwash is dopier than dupe.
   1407. perros Posted: October 20, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5771699)
diplomatically speaking it is pretty alarming that Saudi Arabia would be so reckless. I mean, you can chalk it up to the government having a collective brain fart, or you can see it as a pattern of recent behaviour where a traditionally irresponsible state has been acting more and more irresponsibly in recent years.


As demonstrated by Sam's link (and contra Zonk), the world as a whole is moving rightrightright, led and tremendously influenced by the good ol' USA. Saudi Arabia has internal factions like every other country, and MbS is the reckless force behind KSA's more extreme posture.

Just remember the US paid dummies who've droned on and on that MbS is great liberalizer becauase he let women drive. Khoshoggi isn't his first victim, nor will he be his last.

We love us some monster mash as long as #### don't get too bloody.
   1408. perros Posted: October 20, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5771701)
"Collective brain fart" accutely describes the liberal response to quite predictable world events that fall outside the range of naughty and nice.
   1409. perros Posted: October 20, 2018 at 12:17 PM (#5771703)
Read Sam's link. White Nationalism has long been a driving force in GOP politics, but it's now all they stand for. You can't put Trump at the head of your party and not go full fascist.
   1410. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 20, 2018 at 02:01 PM (#5771725)
The Real Clear Politics "No Toss-Ups" Senate Map currently stands at 54 Republicans, 46 Democrats, with Florida having moved into the GOP column. That's a gain of 3 seats, but the GOP only leads narrowly in Arizona, Florida, Nevada & Missouri.
   1411. . Posted: October 20, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5771727)
David Leonhardt's column in the Times today begins the process of grappling with the very real possibility that the House doesn't in fact go blue.
   1412. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 20, 2018 at 02:21 PM (#5771731)
Nate Silver ruminates on the fundraising gap:
Small-donor fundraising for Congress has been growing for years, presumably because raising money digitally is so much easier than the old ways of doing it. But D and R fundraising was moving in tandem and the R's just dropped off a cliff this year while Dems kept growing.

........In 2010, fundraising was a bit less predictive than usual but 2012/14/16 were all pretty good.

...........I have seen people shrug off the fundraising data because they're having trouble explaining it and I think shrugging off isn't what you want to do.

................I empathize with the case for sort of ignoring the fundraising numbers—the case basically being, they're so good for Ds/bad for Rs that they seem outlier-ish and we don't know what to do with them. But I don't think that case is prudent or wise. You can't just ignore outliers.

...................One point that I think people miss: the Dems' fundraising numbers are pretty good but not **that** good. It's that Dems' fundraising numbers are pretty good *and* the GOP ones are bad.

........................Personally, I think the D seat distribution may be more right-skewed than what our model shows. e.g., maybe the model is right that Ds win 35-40 on average, but the median should be lower (30-35?), and the tail where they win 55+ fatter.

Cook Report shows 31 "Tossup" House seats. 30 are held by Republicans, and one is held by a retiring Democrat.

Cook Report has 25 "Lean Republican" seats: 24 are held by Republicans, and one is held by a retiring Democrat.

Cook Report has 14 "Lean Democratic" seats: 2 of them are held by retiring Democrats, and 12 are held by Republicans (4 of whom are retiring, plus one case of "oopsie, married Congressman spent taxpayer money to cover up sexual harassment of his proposed 'soul mate' and abandoned the seat last April).
   1413. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 20, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5771736)
#1410:
The Real Clear Politics "No Toss-Ups" Senate Map currently stands at 54 Republicans, 46 Democrats, with Florida having moved into the GOP column. That's a gain of 3 seats, but the GOP only leads narrowly in Arizona, Florida, Nevada & Missouri.



Meanwhile, 538 has the Democratic candidates leading in Missouri (with a 61% chance), in Florida (64%), and in Arizona (64%). The Democrat is given a 45% shot in Nevada, making it the one "No Toss-Ups" rating among this group to be in alignment with RCP's assessment.

538's methodology also appears to carry a little more credence than RCP's. As an example, RCP's current Florida Senate polling average has Bill Nelson and Rick Scott dead even, to the tenth of a percentage point, with 46.3% apiece. But when it comes to "No Toss-Ups," a decision has to be made. And an extra pinch of red it is. Somehow this RCP tiebreaker is meant to reflect the Democrat Nelson having led in four of the last five polls listed by RCP (with the fifth being a tie). Going a few weeks further back, the Republican Scott led in just three of RCP's last dozen polls, and by margins of 2%, 1%, and 2%. Nelson had a 3% and a 7% over this same period. Advantage: GOP.
   1414. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 20, 2018 at 03:23 PM (#5771741)
David Leonhardt's column in the Times today begins the process of grappling with the very real possibility that the House doesn't in fact go blue.


I see no reason not to go with Nate's peg of a 20% chance for the Rs to keep the House.

But that's a real chance. And by election day it may move a bit.

The gleeful Dems may be repeating the mistake of 2016.
   1415. Lassus Posted: October 20, 2018 at 03:33 PM (#5771744)
I don't think anyone's gleeful or taking anything for granted. It's a non-stop desperate plea for voters on all (figurative) channels all the time.
   1416. . Posted: October 20, 2018 at 03:58 PM (#5771749)
It's higher -- 33-40%. Especially if that "caravan" makes it up from Mexico around election time.
   1417. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 20, 2018 at 04:06 PM (#5771751)
I don't think anyone's gleeful or taking anything for granted. It's a non-stop desperate plea for voters on all (figurative) channels all the time.

It's all going to come down to turnout. And if the last two years don't motivate Democrats to vote, nothing will.
   1418. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 20, 2018 at 04:11 PM (#5771753)
As an example, RCP's current Florida Senate polling average has Bill Nelson and Rick Scott dead even, to the tenth of a percentage point, with 46.3% apiece. But when it comes to "No Toss-Ups," a decision has to be made. And an extra pinch of red it is. Somehow this RCP tiebreaker is meant to reflect the Democrat Nelson having led in four of the last five polls listed by RCP (with the fifth being a tie). Going a few weeks further back, the Republican Scott led in just three of RCP's last dozen polls, and by margins of 2%, 1%, and 2%. Nelson had a 3% and a 7% over this same period. Advantage: GOP.

That's an incorrect description of the RCP "No-Toss-Ups" methodology. Only the last 3 polls currently listed were considered, the mid-September and earlier polls have aged out of the formula. Nelson has a 1% lead in the Mason-Dixon & WCTV-TV polls, and Scott has a 2% lead in the St. Pete Poll. That's an overall tie, but the No-Toss Ups formula gives the edge to the more recent poll (by 2+ weeks), so Scott gets the call. No one is contending that it isn't super close, just that the only October poll there puts Scott ahead.
   1419. McCoy Posted: October 20, 2018 at 05:13 PM (#5771759)
Softball playing days might be over. Separated my shoulder today in the championship game.
   1420. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 20, 2018 at 05:41 PM (#5771763)
Are you
(a) confusing me and YC?
(b) Doxxing YC?
(c) Trying to flatter YC by calling him by my name?


Whoops, sorry David. Yes, it's A
   1421. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: October 20, 2018 at 05:54 PM (#5771764)
Wheeeee ...



Donald Trump has confirmed the US will leave an arms control treaty with Russia dating from the cold war that has kept nuclear missiles out of Europe for three decades.

“We’ll have to develop those weapons,” the president told reporters in Nevada after a rally. “We’re going to terminate the agreement and we’re going to pull out.”

Trump was referring to the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF), which banned ground-launch nuclear missiles with ranges from 500km to 5,500km. Signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, it led to nearly 2,700 short- and medium-range missiles being eliminated, and an end to a dangerous standoff between US Pershing and cruise missiles and Soviet SS-20 missiles in Europe.

The Guardian reported on Friday that Trump’s third national security adviser, John Bolton, a longstanding opponent of arms control treaties, was pushing for US withdrawal. The US says Russia has been violating the INF agreement with the development and deployment of a new cruise missile. Under the terms of the treaty, it would take six months for US withdrawal to take effect.

US hawks have also argued that the INF treaty ties the country’s hands in its strategic rivalry with China in the Pacific, with no response to Chinese medium-range missiles that could threaten US bases, allies and shipping.


Graun
   1422. BDC Posted: October 20, 2018 at 06:56 PM (#5771771)
The INF is Reagan's single greatest legacy. So much for that.
   1423. Howie Menckel Posted: October 20, 2018 at 07:06 PM (#5771773)
Softball playing days might be over. Separated my shoulder today in the championship game.

um, you've seen us BBTFers play.
oh, you mean real softball, not the mockery of a game that we undertake once a year.
well, welcome to the abyss - just comes a little earlier for you (or not; you could be young enough to heal).
   1424. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: October 20, 2018 at 07:28 PM (#5771775)
Yeah, don't be a baby, ok???


President Donald Trump dismissed as ridiculous a question from a female reporter who asked her about his claims that the migrants making their way to the United States are dangerous. During a roundtable with reporters, Trump answered questions about a large caravan heading to the border. “Some of these people are hard criminals. Hardened criminals—not good people,” Trump said. “These are some bad people coming through. These aren’t babies these aren’t little angels coming into our country.”

New York Times reporter Emily Cochrane asked Trump to explain himself: “What evidence do you have that these are hardened criminals that are coming to the United States?” Trump dismissed the question, as if the answer were obvious. “Oh please. Please, don’t be a baby, OK. Take a look, just take a look, look at what’s happening, look at the Mexican soldiers that are laying on the ground. Take a look. These are hardened—I didn’t say in all cases but in many cases these are hardened criminals. These are tough, tough people. And I don’t want them in our country and neither does our country want them in our country.”


Link
   1425. BrianBrianson Posted: October 20, 2018 at 07:38 PM (#5771777)
I mean, it's not nice to ask a question of a senile old man when you know he doesn't know the answer.
   1426. Srul Itza Posted: October 20, 2018 at 07:44 PM (#5771778)
The INF is Reagan's single greatest legacy.


Reagan would be far too liberal for today's Republican party.

   1427. Shredder Posted: October 20, 2018 at 08:00 PM (#5771781)
Reagan would be far too liberal for today's Republican party.
The policies that Reagan pushed for would be way to liberal for today's Republican party. If Reagan were alive and politically active today, he'd be just as nutball right wing as the rest of today's Republican Party.
   1428. perros Posted: October 20, 2018 at 08:45 PM (#5771804)
Reagan is the reason we're where we are today.
   1429. Chicago Joe Posted: October 20, 2018 at 08:51 PM (#5771808)
Yeah, he’s kind of our modern (post-Watergate) Original Sin.
   1430. perros Posted: October 20, 2018 at 09:15 PM (#5771825)
I still hate him the most. Nixon was a terrible person and everybody knew it. Reagan had a pleasant visage camouflaging the killer inside.
   1431. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 20, 2018 at 10:29 PM (#5771873)
As has been subtly coming out in opinion columns, many progressives are sort of upset with Elizabeth Warren. Not only did the DNA results prove she was white but she's going against the orthodoxy of the left which essentially claims that identity is what one feels. They're not there with ethnicity yet but Warren in trying to prove scientifically that she's part Native American makes the left uneasy because with gender, according to the left, biology/science is irrelevant and it's what the individual believes. Warren is challenging that general theme.
   1432. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 20, 2018 at 11:18 PM (#5771892)
Miami GOP Chairman just caught leading Proud Boys in attack on Democratic campaign office

The Miami-Dade Republican Party’s County Chairman led an angry mob of partisans, alongside the local leader of national hate group the Proud Boys, in an attack on a Democratic campaign office this week.

Miami GOP Chairman Nelson Diaz planned the event (image below) and local Congressman Carlos Curbelo publicized the protest heavily, before and after.

“This is beyond reprehensible and it must be condemned in the strongest of ways,” said Pelosi campaign spokesman Jorge Aguilar who attended the event.

The Proud Boys are a national street gang with numerous Republican connections one of whose members planned the Charlottesville riot which group members attended last summer.(...)

In just the last week, the Proud Boys violently attacked protesters alongside neo-Nazis in Manhattan after an event held at the GOP’s New York City clubhouse and The Oregonian reported on Monday that a march they co-organized in Portland included a team of rooftop snipers. (...)

“I was on the other side of that door with the Capitol Police, helping to deadbolt the entrance from an angry mob. I’ve never seen anything like this in all of my years in Miami politics, or anywhere else for that matter,” said Ricky Junquera, Outreach Vice Chairman of the Miami-Dade County Democratic party

“Peacefully protesting is one thing, but what they were doing on the other side of that door was not peaceful. No volunteer should fear that kind of violence.” says Junquera, who himself began working for the Mucarsel-Powell campaign recently.
   1433. perros Posted: October 20, 2018 at 11:59 PM (#5771952)
The Oregonian reported on Monday that a march they co-organized in Portland included a team of rooftop snipers. (...)


The cops shrugged. They had gun permits.
   1434. perros Posted: October 21, 2018 at 12:00 AM (#5771953)
***
   1435. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 21, 2018 at 12:03 AM (#5771956)
.
   1436. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 21, 2018 at 12:05 AM (#5771958)
From Oddshark. The first few candidates, of many:

Odds to win the 2020 united states presidential election

Donald Trump +150
Kamala Harris +1000
Bernie Sanders +1200
Joe Biden +1400
Elizabeth Warren +1500
Mike Pence +1800
Cory Booker +2000
Beto O'Rourke +2500
Kirsten Gillibrand +3000

   1437. Howie Menckel Posted: October 21, 2018 at 12:50 AM (#5771971)
that's basically:
bet 100 on Trump to win 150
bet 100 on Harris to win 1000 (so 10 to 1)

but you can't legally bet on elections if you are in the U.S. - although oddshark's domination of google search priorities puts all political machines to shame. almost nothing slips past their goalie
   1438. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 21, 2018 at 01:19 AM (#5771990)
that's basically:
bet 100 on Trump to win 150


I like the odds of betting 1000 against Trump to win 1000.
   1439. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 21, 2018 at 01:33 AM (#5771992)
More from the link in #1436:
Michael Avenetti +40000
Julian Castro +6000
Amy Klobuchar +6000
Sherrod Brown +6000
Hillary Clinton +6600
Terry McAuliffe +8000
Tammy Duckworth +10000

Having longer odds than Michael Avenatti says something about the candidate and/or electorate, or maybe the oddsmaker, but some of these options have been previously touted here. No mention of first-out-of-the-gate John Delaney? Must be an overwhelming favorite, eh?
   1440. TVerik, who wonders what the hell is "Ansky" Posted: October 21, 2018 at 01:47 AM (#5771993)
Klobuchar is the best-liked politician in the country.
   1441. Howie Menckel Posted: October 21, 2018 at 01:56 AM (#5771994)
I would take Klobuchar at that number of all those listed, if this was legal.
   1442. Lassus Posted: October 21, 2018 at 05:38 AM (#5771998)
Hmmm.... which Dems in the thread brought up the Dems being confident and then also moved on ahead to the Dems' odds for taking the 2020 election?

Asking for MYSELF.

Gee, I wonder what the Dems are up to?
   1443. . Posted: October 21, 2018 at 08:42 AM (#5772003)
Yeah, he’s kind of our modern (post-Watergate) Original Sin.


That's actually Roe v. Wade. Decent policy, awful constitutional "law." (*) We've never really recovered from it.

(*) And the sin-ish metaphor of irresistible temptation fits perfectly, too.
   1444. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 21, 2018 at 09:31 AM (#5772004)
The proper response to today’s Republicans are counter sniper nests of your own
   1445. BDC Posted: October 21, 2018 at 09:48 AM (#5772007)
Reagan is the reason we're where we are today


I've been reading Jeffrey Toobin's book American Heiress, about Patty Hearst and the SLA. Toobin discusses a food giveaway called People in Need that Patty's father Randolph Hearst set up at the demand of the SLA. Ronald Reagan thought this move was weak, and, commenting on scenes of Hearst's people giving food to the poor, remarked "It's just too bad we can't have an epidemic of botulism." I suppose this was the famous Reagan humor, but it strikes me as very close to something Trump might say. There is more in common between Trump and Reagan than people rosy with nostalgia might allow.

   1446. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 21, 2018 at 09:57 AM (#5772008)
Fascists love a performative strongman.
   1447. perros Posted: October 21, 2018 at 10:03 AM (#5772010)
RONALD - 6
WILSON - 6
REAGAN - 6

   1448. PreservedFish Posted: October 21, 2018 at 10:13 AM (#5772013)
Don't people with botulism still need food?
   1449. perros Posted: October 21, 2018 at 10:20 AM (#5772016)
Americans are nice, but there's a deep mean streak always waiting to be tapped.
   1450. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 21, 2018 at 10:31 AM (#5772022)
There is no rational way to describe 300 million people as “nice” or “evil” or anything else.
   1451. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 21, 2018 at 10:54 AM (#5772030)
Clapper, #1418:
As an example, RCP's current Florida Senate polling average has Bill Nelson and Rick Scott dead even, to the tenth of a percentage point, with 46.3% apiece. But when it comes to "No Toss-Ups," a decision has to be made. And an extra pinch of red it is. Somehow this RCP tiebreaker is meant to reflect the Democrat Nelson having led in four of the last five polls listed by RCP (with the fifth being a tie). Going a few weeks further back, the Republican Scott led in just three of RCP's last dozen polls, and by margins of 2%, 1%, and 2%. Nelson had a 3% and a 7% over this same period. Advantage: GOP.
That's an incorrect description of the RCP "No-Toss-Ups" methodology. Only the last 3 polls currently listed were considered, the mid-September and earlier polls have aged out of the formula. Nelson has a 1% lead in the Mason-Dixon & WCTV-TV polls, and Scott has a 2% lead in the St. Pete Poll. That's an overall tie, but the No-Toss Ups formula gives the edge to the more recent poll (by 2+ weeks), so Scott gets the call. No one is contending that it isn't super close, just that the only October poll there puts Scott ahead.


For a methodology, RCP's "No Toss-Ups" option is somehow both arbitrary and fluid. As for "aging out of the formula," what is the formula? The number three-- except when it's four polls, or five? RCP's cut-off dates for these three elections are: 24 days ago (Florida), or 18 days ago (Arizona), or 37 days (Missouri). And in each case, the last 3 polls currently listed by RCP are different from the 3 most recent polls released for the race. Ingredients go in first, recipe to follow.

Florida RCP average:
3 polls, dating back to September 27. The first poll to miss the cutoff is from 9/24, showing the Democrat with a 7% lead. Including it would convert an RCP Tie into an RCP 2.7% Dem lead. RCP also omits four other polls that were released since their 9/27 cutoff. Including them would move the Democrat into the RCP lead.

Arizona RCP average:
4 polls, dating back to October 2. The first poll to miss the cutoff is from 9/30, showing the Democrat with a 3% lead. Including it would turn an RCP 0.7% GOP lead into a Tie. RCP also omits two other polls that came since their 10/2 cutoff. Including them would move the Democrat into the RCP lead.

Missouri RCP average:
4 polls, dating back to September 13. The first poll to miss the cutoff is from 9/14, showing a Tie. Including it would barely change the average (a 0.25% lead becomes 0.2%). RCP also omits six other polls that came since their 9/13 cutoff. Including them would boost the Republican's lead.

RCP includes the work of 3, or 4, or 5 pollsters for each of its "Top Senate Race" averages. The varying "cutoff" points are determined by the multiple existing polls that RCP has itself cut out of its chosen timeframes. RCP's current cutoff dates for its top 17 races range from October 5 (Texas) to June 12 (Ohio). The percentage of public polls omitted by RCP per Senate race is as large as two-thirds.

Other than 538's greater transparency and clarity, its much larger amount of included polls, its systematic contextualization of the pollsters' varying methodologies and past performances, its decision NOT to apply forced, arbitrary and essentially pointless "tiebreakers" -- and other than the sanitation, aqueduct and public order -- what reason is there for us to value 538's evaluations above RCP's?
   1452. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 21, 2018 at 10:55 AM (#5772032)
Gotta love the timing and understatement in this lead sentence from yesterday’s New York Times:
Republican leaders are increasingly worried that their candidates for governor and Senate are in political trouble across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and other states that the party prizes, and that the difficulties could spill into House races that the G.O.P. needs to win in November to keep control of the chamber.

No!! Are they really? You.. you THINK?

Coming up later this week in the New York Times: Partisan Rancor Roils Some Midterm Races

At least we know that the nothing word “increasingly” has bipartisan appeal in these troubled times.

To be fair, the rest of the NYT article uses worthwhile detail and quotes to flesh out its unremarkable premise.
   1453. PreservedFish Posted: October 21, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5772034)
I got botulism confused with bulimia, which is particularly embarrassing, as I work for a food safety company.
   1454. baravelli Posted: October 21, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5772035)
Ray, can you link to any of the opinion columns that you refer to in 1431? Thanks.
   1455. perros Posted: October 21, 2018 at 12:45 PM (#5772052)
I got botulism confused with bulimia, which is particularly embarrassing, as I work for a food safety company


Roll another number and fuggettaboutitt.
   1456. perros Posted: October 21, 2018 at 12:48 PM (#5772053)

Ray, can you link to any of the opinion columns that you refer to in 1431


It's Fox News run through Buddy Ebsen's brain.
   1457. PreservedFish Posted: October 21, 2018 at 12:53 PM (#5772056)
Ray, can you link to any of the opinion columns that you refer to in 1431


You're probably not subtle enough to pick up on the subtleties.
   1458. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 21, 2018 at 12:55 PM (#5772058)
Other than 538's greater transparency and clarity, its much larger amount of included polls, its systematic contextualization of the pollsters' varying methodologies and past performances, its decision NOT to apply forced, arbitrary and essentially pointless "tiebreakers" -- and other than the sanitation, aqueduct and public order -- what reason is there for us to value 538's evaluations above RCP's?

RCP also has a way of reporting polls that while technically accurate don't give readers a deeper understanding of the underlying findings.

Latest example: On their latest poll aggregation page, they list the NBC/Wall St. Journal poll as showing Trump with but a -2% approval rating. Quite a jump for the Orange Man.

But when you click on the poll itself, what you also see (Question #4) is that the Strongly Disapprove / Strongly Approve gap is at -13%, which is 3% smaller than in September, but actually 1% greater than it was in August.**

So while RCP can say it's accurately representing that poll's findings, in truth it's only giving you half of the story.

** That link doesn't work here, but if you go to the RCP link you can access it from there.
   1459. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 21, 2018 at 01:03 PM (#5772060)

RCP also has a way of reporting polls that while technically accurate don't give readers a deeper understanding of the underlying findings.
Uh, it's an aggregator. Its role is to aggregate, not to give readers deeper understandings of underlying findings.
   1460. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 21, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5772061)
Uh, you mean, like not picking subjective cutoff dates to create a "No Toss-Ups" formula?
   1461. perros Posted: October 21, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5772068)
   1462. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 21, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5772079)
CNN/SRSS all-Florida poll today (pollster rated A- by 538):
Florida Senate:
Nelson (D) 50%, Scott (R) 45%

Florida Governor:
Gillum (D) 54%, DeSantis (R) 42%

For now, the poll smells a little outlier-y, even though it also contains a slightly smaller-than-average Trump approval deficit. The only thing we know for sure is that this poll has knocked Rick Scott out of his highly coveted RCP No Toss-Ups perch.

Gillum has led in 21 of 23 polls since late August, with a tie. Nelson has led in 12 of 20 polls since late August, with three ties. However, RCP only lists 13 polls since late August for Nelson-Scott, and 13 polls since late August for Gillum-DeSantis.

538 has adjusted four of Scott's five polling leads since late August slightly towards the Democrats, but they've also shaved Nelson's lead in today's CNN poll from 5% to 4%.
   1463. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 21, 2018 at 02:51 PM (#5772087)
Oh. Polls.
   1464. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 21, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5772104)
What was Christ vs Barabbas, other than a public poll?
   1465. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 21, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5772105)
RCP also has a way of reporting polls that while technically accurate don't give readers a deeper understanding of the underlying findings.

Uh, it's an aggregator. Its role is to aggregate, not to give readers deeper understandings of underlying findings.


That's like Ray's claim that he's only quoting Dilbert or Dershy. There are many ways an aggregator can aggregate. But I notice now that RCP's changed that NBC/WSJ number from -2% to -7%. That still doesn't reflect the much bigger (-13%) Strongly Disapprove/Strongly Approve gap, but at least it now reflects Likely Voters rather than Registered Voters.
   1466. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 21, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5772109)
that's basically:
bet 100 on Trump to win 150


I like the odds of betting 1000 against Trump to win 1000.


I admittedly gave you favorable odds as I've said because I -- unlike you -- put my money where my mouth is, however stupid that may be. (We learned from Bivens how stupid it is.) That said, the odds I gave you are not far off from the above; I built in a contingency for if Trump dies before the election, in which case the bet is off (*), which is something not in the above Oddshark futures.

(*) As I said, in fairness to you, if Trump declines not to run and THEN dies you would still win the bet. That said, I'd hope that if Trump suffers a traumatic health event such as a stroke and thus has to pull out of the race you'd call the bet off, but reviewing the terms of the bet quickly I don't see that we put that in there.

From my e-mails these are the terms of our bet from July 2017:

445. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 18, 2017 at 05:43 PM (#5495633)

Bookmark the page. I'll take the bet. And I'm happy to have each other trust us to pay off.

To be clear, the bet is:

* We each have $1,000 and only $1,000 at stake. Whoever loses the bet wins the other person's $1,000.
* If Trump wins the 2020 election I win the bet.
* If anyone else, D or R, wins the 2020 election you win the bet, with the one exception as follows.
* The only exception is that if Trump dies at any point before election day on 2020 the bet is canceled.

Did I accurately summarize the bet according to your understanding?


100%, and I have no problem trusting you to pay off if you should lose. I've never had any reason to think otherwise.

This tests all of my theories: That impeachment proceedings if started will fail and hurt Democrats; that the RussiaRussia stuff hurts Democrats; that Trump as a power hungry egomaniac will want to run again; that if Trump runs again he'll have a 50-50 chance or better of winning.

You're getting a great deal here as from all of the analysis of the TDSers, Trump has little prayer of winning again in 2020, if he even runs again, if he even survives the first four years. And you get the entire field against him, unless death do our bet part.


That's why I called #402 a serious post. As we all know, money talks and bullshit walks.

EDIT: Actually, with regard to the one exception, to be fair to you, if he declines to run or something and then dies, you would still win the bet. I'm happy to rely on our ability to honestly work out, with the help of others here, any gray areas that may arise if he dies. Surely if he were to die tomorrow or something the bet is simply off.

Agreed on all counts.
   1467. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 21, 2018 at 04:14 PM (#5772113)
In the event of death or debilitating disease I’d hope Andy would ignore Internet bets and join the party in the streets.
   1468. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 21, 2018 at 05:06 PM (#5772127)
Billy Graham Center Explains Survey on Evangelical Trump Voters
The main takeway of the 2016 election for American evangelicals: they “feel committed to engaging the political process even when the candidates are far from ideal.”

So concludes the Billy Graham Center Institute at Wheaton College from its new survey, released in CT’s November issue, examining the oft-repeated statistic that 81 percent of white evangelicals voted for Trump in 2016.

Also of interest
Nearly one-third of evangelicals (30%) said politics is “extremely important,” while only 18 percent of non-evangelicals judged it so. And, nearly twice as many non-evangelicals (13%) said politics is “not very important” compared to 7 percent of evangelicals.
   1469. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 21, 2018 at 05:43 PM (#5772134)
‘Antifa’ scare sends protestors to Gastonia camping store
Several dozen people showed up to a Gastonia outdoors store on Saturday in the rain to mount a counter-protest against an Antifa rally that didn’t happen.

A recent Facebook page called Gaston County Antifa, which is a portmanteau for “antifascist,” had posted earlier in the week that group members “from at least 10 states” were planning to gather in front of the Gander Outdoors in Franklin Square. Other than the Facebook page, there’s no evidence of any such group actually existing in Gaston County, but that didn’t stop those spreading the rumors. Even local website CharlotteStories ran a widely shared article about the fake rally.

The dozens of counter-protesters stood in front of the Gander store waving flags, including American and Trump flags. Some, like Terry Pennington, came from out of the county to be at the outdoors store.(...)

Pennington made the trip to Gastonia from Locust. He said the Gaston County Antifa post was “most likely” a prank.

“But you see the true supporters,” Pennington said. “We don’t care if it’s a prank. We’re going to show up because what’s going to happen is they’re going to call this and then we ain’t going to show up and then they’re going to really burn down an American flag and it’s going to cause someone to seriously have problems.”(...)

Pennington told The Gazette he and others planned to stay at Gander Outdoors “until we know Antifa ain’t coming.”

People were still outside of the store close to noon.

   1470. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 21, 2018 at 06:14 PM (#5772137)
I like the odds of betting 1000 against Trump to win 1000.

I admittedly gave you favorable odds as I've said because I -- unlike you -- put my money where my mouth is, however stupid that may be.


Uh, Ray, we both have put our money where our mouths are. Do you think I'm playing on ass?

(We learned from Bivens how stupid it is.)

Well, I did lose a couple of Clyde's dinners, but not 40 of them. I was born at night, but not last night.

That said, the odds I gave you are not far off from the above; I built in a contingency for if Trump dies before the election, in which case the bet is off (*), which is something not in the above Oddshark futures.

(*) As I said, in fairness to you, if Trump declines not to run and THEN dies you would still win the bet. That said, I'd hope that if Trump suffers a traumatic health event such as a stroke and thus has to pull out of the race you'd call the bet off, but reviewing the terms of the bet quickly I don't see that we put that in there.


Sure, if he pulls out and then croaks or has a debilitating illness, I win, but if a debilitating illness forces him to withdraw, the bet is off. That seems only fair.

The only gray area might be if he first withdrew, seemingly under political pressure, but shortly afterwards it came out that he'd had actually had a stroke that hadn't been disclosed at the time of his withdrawal. The gray area here would be that in Trump's case it might be hard to tell the difference in his public behavior between Before and After, but there I'd be willing to leave it up to you to make the call. I don't think either of us wants to be winning this on what amounts to a technicality.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the event of death or debilitating disease I’d hope Andy would ignore Internet bets and join the party in the streets.

Only if he were ahead in the polls. Otherwise I'd want the final verdict to be delivered by the electorate, and not by an act of God. As more than one person has said, this election** isn't about Trump, it's about what we are as a country.

** Meaning both 2018 and 2020, where we'll be getting a fortunate chance for a do-over.
   1471. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 21, 2018 at 06:20 PM (#5772140)
To elaborate on my footnote in #1470 above, Jennifer Rubin expressed the stakes quite succinctly, with the help of Peter Wehner.
The corruption eating away at the presidency is not merely financial, of course. Conservative Trump critic and former adviser to President George W. Bush, Peter Wehner, in recent days eloquently addressed the moral dimension of the Saudi situation. “I think the fundamental interpretative fact of the Trump presidency – and I think that this Saudi example is only one manifestation of it – is this is a person [Trump] who is fundamentally amoral and immoral,” he said during an MSNBC appearance. “He is a man without human empathy or without human sympathy, and in many respects a man without conscience; and I think what you’ve seen over the last several days is a person who’s reacting that way.” Wehner continued, “And I think that we’ve seen that lack of human empathy and conscience in almost every arena of the Trump presidency. It explains the cruelty, it explains the policy at the border, separating kids from [parents], it explains the pathological lies, it explains the fact that he’s a man without loyalty — and I think this is just the latest arena in which we’re seeing this ugly drama play itself out.”

In short, the country is convulsed by a president whose personal corruption and moral vacuity offend our deepest-held convictions and our self-image as a citizens of the world’s leading democracy. His devoted cult and his cynical apologists are content to be lied to and receive trinkets (e.g., a tax cut that really doesn’t benefit most of them). The rest of us are not. The energy, the anger and the sense of urgency we see in the run up to the midterm elections reflects voters’ disgust and dismay over a president and a party who sully our democracy.

Two years of Trump leave us wanting to wash away the moral and financial filth that he’s tracked into the White House. If Americans turn out to vote in large enough numbers, the midterms will provide a national cleansing, a political fumigation. The midterms could mark the first substantial step on the road to national renewal. How refreshing and exhilarating that would be.
   1472. perros Posted: October 21, 2018 at 06:51 PM (#5772144)

‘Antifa’ scare sends protestors to Gastonia camping store


My hometown. Left at eighteen and never looked back.
   1473. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: October 21, 2018 at 07:21 PM (#5772147)
Omega Monkey, bets are only stupid if you lose more than you can afford. The particular bet in question says more about you than it does about me. You put yourself in a position where you had to root for a Trump win. Your continued support of him, and your attacks on anyone who attacks him, will be the reason you'll rot in hell someday. Cheers!
   1474. BDC Posted: October 21, 2018 at 08:24 PM (#5772160)
It's Fox News run through Buddy Ebsen's brain


OK, I laughed heartily :-D

EDIT: Though I then realized that for all I know, Buddy Ebsen was a mensch among progressives. I can't find anything to suggest this, but I can't find anything about Ebsen's politics at all, after extensive seconds of Googling. It's just the image of Barnaby Jones huddled in front of Fox News drinking Diet Cokes all night.

   1475. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 21, 2018 at 09:21 PM (#5772179)
WELL I’M GLAD THIS GOT TAKEN CARE OF

Distraction over. So whaddya think, is Hillary running in 2020? Just go away already!
   1476. BDC Posted: October 21, 2018 at 09:39 PM (#5772183)
That’s the nicest sympathy card I’ve seen since the one Stalin sent Mme. Trotsky.
   1477. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 21, 2018 at 10:21 PM (#5772188)
Trump administration considering narrowing legal definition of gender

The Trump administration is weighing a change that would require individuals to identify as male or female based on their genitalia at birth, tightening gender definitions that had offered more leeway to transgender and gender nonconforming individuals, The New York Times reported Sunday.

The Department of Health and Human Services proposed in a memo obtained by the news outlet that government agencies adopt a definition of gender that is determined "on a biological basis that is clear, grounded in science, objective and administrable."

The change in how the government defines gender marks the latest effort from the administration to undo Obama-era rules that granted more freedoms to people who are transgender.
   1478. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 21, 2018 at 10:45 PM (#5772195)
The decent thing would now be for Khassogi’s loved ones to apologize for Jamal bloodying up the bone saw.

Both sides and all....
   1479. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 21, 2018 at 11:19 PM (#5772206)
That’s the nicest sympathy card I’ve seen since the one Stalin sent Mme. Trotsky.

Or the flowers that the Capone organization sent to the funeral of the rival gang members killed in the St. Valentine's Day massacre.
   1480. perros Posted: October 22, 2018 at 12:56 AM (#5772213)
T
he Department of Health and Human Services proposed in a memo obtained by the news outlet that government agencies adopt a definition of gender that is determined "on a biological basis that is clear, grounded in science, objective and administrable."


Anyone born with ambiguous genitalia will be taken from their parents and deported.
   1481. OCF Posted: October 22, 2018 at 12:56 AM (#5772214)
I've been noticing stories about Dodge City, KS. The gist of the stories: it's a city with population 25,000 or more (maybe 13,000 registered voters), now majority Latino. It has one polling place, and that polling place was recently moved from its old location to a new location outside the city limits and at least a mile from any public transportation.

My reaction to a story like that is to go to Google Maps. I've got to see what's going on for myself. So, the geography of Dodge City, as judged from Google Maps:

The Arkansas River - which is more sand than water, but that's the way that river is all the way down - flows through from west to east. Just north of the river are the main railroad tracks, and a parallel highway. Amtrak's Chicago to Los Angeles long distance train (the Southwest Limited, last I paid any attention) goes through on these tracks, but the BNSF (and the AT&SF; before them) routes its transcontinental freight traffic along a different route (the Belen Cutoff) further south. That highway near the tracks, which forms the east-west main drag through downtown, is called Wyatt Earp Blvd.

What looks like about 3/4 of the city is north of the river and north of the tracks, but there is about 1/4 of it south of the river. There aren't very many apartment buildings; it looks like housing is predominantly free-standing single family houses.

The part south of the river is clearly the lowest-income part of town: small houses, skimpy landscaping, multiple large trailer parks. Businesses include several auto or truck salvage yards. One intersection in this southern area has both a Dollar General and a Dollar Tree. The polling place is south of town, out beyond the salvage yards. It's called an "Expo Center" - a large plain-looking rectangular building with a huge parking lot and some bare-ground areas next to the building that could be enclosed if needed. I've been in buildings like that; I'm guessing it has a large open space in the center that might have a dirt floor, with galleries around it. I imagine its main business is livestock shows and sales, but you could exhibit cars or tractors or whatever in there as well.

The big meat-packing plants are east of town, north of the river, connected to the tracks. The Cargill plant - apparently the biggest employer is further from downtown than the expo center is. There's also a National Beef plant, a little closer in than Cargill.

The country club, which was apparently the previous single voting site, is itself near the edge of town, to the northeast. Generally speaking it looks like the housing closer to the tracks in the river is smaller and older, while the larger houses are further to the north. Apparently there was something wrong with the country club site - remodeling in progress, lack of ADA compliance, something. What housing there is near the country club is clearly the highest income part of town - bigger houses, more trees, bigger trees. My best guess is that the expo center really isn't much worse of a site than the country club was for most of the residents. The big problem isn't so much that they're using the expo center as it is that there aren't five or eight voting precincts at a spread of locations.
   1482. perros Posted: October 22, 2018 at 01:02 AM (#5772216)
In 1984, after working with the Democratic state committee in her home state of Pennsylvania "on a variety of projects" over a period of years, Nancy Kulp (Miss Jane Hathaway from The Beverly Hillbillies) ran unopposed as the Democratic nominee for the United States House of Representatives from Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district. As an opponent of the Republican incumbent Bud Shuster in a Republican-dominated district, Kulp was the decided underdog. Sixty-two years old at the time, Kulp said some voters might feel her background as an actress was "frivolous"; but she noted that Ronald Reagan had taken the route from screen to politics, and she said anyone who "listens and cares" can do well.

To her dismay, her Hillbillies co-star Buddy Ebsen contacted the Shuster campaign and volunteered to make a radio campaign ad in which he called Kulp "too liberal." Kulp said of Ebsen, "He's not the kindly old Jed Clampett that you saw on the show... It's none of his business and he should have stayed out of it." She said Ebsen and she "didn't get along because I found him difficult to work with. But I never would have done something like this to him." Garnering 59,449 votes—just 33.6% of the ballots cast in the election—to Shuster's 117,203 votes and 66.4%, she lost. After this according to her close friends and family Ebsen was regarded as "Persona non grata" to Kulp and she made it clear to people not to bring him up in conversation around her with the exception of interviews related to her time on Hillbillies. In his later years, especially after Kulp's death, Ebsen privately expressed remorse for doing the ad.
   1483. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 22, 2018 at 01:21 AM (#5772217)
@AndrewGillum (Governor candidate, FL)
The wealthiest 3% of corporations are walking away with 6.3 billion dollars in new tax giveaways. With my plan, they can keep 5.3 billion of that. Everyday Floridians just need 1 billion to invest back into our schools, our students -- and pay our teachers what they’re worth.
   1484. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 22, 2018 at 04:12 AM (#5772219)
The country club, which was apparently the previous single voting site, is itself near the edge of town, to the northeast. Generally speaking it looks like the housing closer to the tracks in the river is smaller and older, while the larger houses are further to the north. Apparently there was something wrong with the country club site - remodeling in progress, lack of ADA compliance, something.
According to the Wichita Eagle, the old polling place was the Civic Center, not the country club, although the former is near the latter. In 2002, the county closed all other polling places because of the ADA,¹ so they've been operating with just one for the past 16 years. The problem with the Civic Center is apparently construction, so they temporarily moved voting to the Expo Center while the construction is going on. The Expo Center is clearly less centrally located than the civic center -- but it definitely appears to be closer to the part of town where Hispanic people live, so... And I'm not sure when a mile became such an insurmountable obstacle, but (a) the county is offering free bussing to the new polling place, and (b) Kansas allows voters to vote by mail for any reason; they also have in-person advance voting (including some evening and weekend hours) if that's what people prefer.



Dodge City isn't the only place in Kansas closing polling places:
Another Kansas county also has cut the number of polling places for November, although the Dodge City situation is the only place where voting rights activists have raised concerns.

This November, some Barton County voters will have to travel 18 miles to get to their closest polling site after officials there cut the number of polling places from the 23 that were open for this year’s primary to 11 for the general election, according to Barton County Clerk Donna Zimmerman.

Zimmerman said she consolidated them to save money in hiring poll workers. The county of about 27,000 residents in central Kansas wanted to “test the waters” to see if it could get by with fewer voting machines at fewer sites, she said.

“I watched as a kid the pain of losing a school and losing the post office and losing the grocery store and now losing the voting location and so it is something that is very near and dear to my heart,” Zimmerman said of her decision. “It is a tough choice to move a voting location and it is certainly not one that didn’t happen with considerable thought.”
I assume the people who have to travel 18 miles are white, or we'd have heard about that one.


¹The terrible law that just keeps on giving.
   1485. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 22, 2018 at 05:31 AM (#5772220)
Trump administration considering narrowing legal definition of gender


You don't want any nasty surprises when you're grabbing them by the pussy.




In 1984...Nancy Kulp (Miss Jane Hathaway from The Beverly Hillbillies) ran unopposed as the Democratic nominee for the United States House of Representatives from Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district. .......To her dismay, her Hillbillies co-star Buddy Ebsen contacted the Shuster campaign and volunteered to make a radio campaign ad in which he called Kulp "too liberal." .......Garnering 59,449 votes—just 33.6% of the ballots cast in the election—to Shuster's 117,203 votes and 66.4%, she lost.


It's too bad for Kulp that her district didn't have more Yellow Weeee-doggy Democrats.
   1486. . Posted: October 22, 2018 at 07:23 AM (#5772222)
Ray can certainly handle himself in this area, but the time is probably ripe for a reminder that Andy completely welshed on our 2016 bet. Pretty strong guess that surety bonds for net bets don't exist, but given the track record here, I wouldn't leave home without one.
   1487. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 22, 2018 at 07:43 AM (#5772223)
Re: #1486:
"Declaring ersatz victory again"?
   1488. BDC Posted: October 22, 2018 at 07:46 AM (#5772224)
David, we need to set up a perimeter when it comes arguing with you about voting, which is to say basically not do it :) It's pretty clear that you would be happy with a single machine set up a single morning between 3 and 4am in a location accessible only by helicopter that only the single Libertarian in a given town knew about. Thus there is really no point in repeatedly telling you that anything that makes voting harder … makes voting harder, and makes places less democratic.
   1489. McCoy Posted: October 22, 2018 at 07:56 AM (#5772226)
Ray can certainly handle himself in this area, but the time is probably ripe for a reminder that Andy completely welshed on our 2016 bet. Pretty strong guess that surety bonds for net bets don't exist, but given the track record here, I wouldn't leave home without one.

From what I recall neither one of you is exactly trustworthy when it comes to bets. Though I will say that two people who don't trust or respect each other shouldn't makes bets between themselves. That's just bad decision making on both people's part.


   1490. PreservedFish Posted: October 22, 2018 at 07:59 AM (#5772227)
Well, if you're shameless enough to collect on a bet, but never honest enough to pay, then it seems like a no-brainer!

What were the details on the SBB / Andy bet? I'd love the he said she said.
   1491. perros Posted: October 22, 2018 at 07:59 AM (#5772228)
we need to set up a perimeter when it comes arguing with you about voting, which is to say basically not do it


This week I want to stop arguing with the anti-democrats and take on Democrats to live up to their name in both seeking and exercising power.

Point #1 with a bullet: Stop dialoging with your enemy.
   1492. McCoy Posted: October 22, 2018 at 08:03 AM (#5772230)
What were the details on the SBB / Andy bet? I'd love the he said she said.

It's a complicated convoluted mess of negotiations, agreements, counter negotiations, ultimatums, and hissy fits on both sides.
   1493. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 22, 2018 at 08:04 AM (#5772231)
That’s the nicest sympathy card I’ve seen since the one Stalin sent Mme. Trotsky


In exchange Fat Donnie’s small business sheik Linda McMahon is sending her company to provide happy, family-friendly, pro-Saudi PR at only slightly-inflated rates.

But keep it on the down-low! Like on the official website of Linda Mcmahon’s WWE.
   1494. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 22, 2018 at 08:11 AM (#5772232)
This week I want to stop arguing with the anti-democrats and take on Democrats to live up to their name in both seeking and exercising power.


We are all shocked you want to spend all your time arguing with your not perfect enough allies, in order to ignore your "enemies". So, once you have purified your side then you can march to victory, right? Great plan.
   1495. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 22, 2018 at 08:19 AM (#5772233)
I submitted a new week's thread, we can continue our purging of those insufficiently strident there, when it shows up.
   1496. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 22, 2018 at 08:31 AM (#5772234)
What were the details on the SBB / Andy bet? I'd love the he said she said.

We'd had a bet where I gave him 2 to 1 odds at $1000 to $500, meaning I'd win $500 if Hillary won and he'd win $1000 if Trump won. At some point after that he wanted to double it to $2000 to $1000. I said I'd be fine with that, but for that much money I wanted us to post the stakes with Jason. ** He then threw a hissy fit and unilaterally canceled the original bet, thereby (as it turned out) costing himself $1000. I've had him on ignore ever since, and he can say whatever he wants, but the chronology I just cited is there for anyone to see.

SBB is a man with no verifiable identity, with no links on his page to any information that might identify him, no way of being located in real life, and a long record of making erratic comments and claims about anyone who crosses him. In hindsight, my only mistake was not making him post that original $500 in the first place.

And if anyone might wonder why I don't do that with Ray, it's because I know Ray is a real person, I've met him, we all know where he lives, but more to the point I've found him to be an honorable person, even though his political opinions may be, er, a bit bizarre.

** See #932 in that linked thread from May of 2016. Since I have him on ignore, I can't see his reply, but anyone else can if they're actually interested.
   1497. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 22, 2018 at 08:38 AM (#5772236)
Based on what I know of Stretchy and Andy, Andy might be wrong (we all can be on occasion), but he is not mendacious. Stretchy on the other hand I wouldn't trust ... on anything.
   1498. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 22, 2018 at 08:40 AM (#5772237)
Jolly Andy, #1496:
And if anyone might wonder why I don't do that with Ray, it's because I know Ray is a real person, I've met him, we all know where he lives, but more to...

Lived. Ray just went to a great deal of trouble to dramatically alter his street address right before challenging everyone to a 2020 bet. Verrry suspicious...
   1499. Lassus Posted: October 22, 2018 at 08:50 AM (#5772238)
Andy, like many, like myself, like anyone, has various public faults and deficiencies on display. His betting practices and requests are nowhere near among those. Taking the expert wagering word of lawyers, real or pretend, in place of someone who has spent his life in pool halls, strikes me about as astute as lawyers on climate science.
   1500. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 22, 2018 at 09:09 AM (#5772244)
...or Trump on anything.
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