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Monday, October 08, 2018

OTP 2018 October 8: Hugh Jackman’s ‘The Front Runner’ Confronts The Political Conundrum Of Our Time

The picture drops us into the thick of the 1984 campaign right as Hart (a low-key and weather Jackman, oddly eschewing his usual star charisma) conceding the nomination to Walter Mondale. As you know, Mondale got slaughtered by Ronald Regan in the general election, losing all but one state in the electoral college (despite still winning 41% of the popular vote). So, four years later, Hart is back in the thick of it, as he argues that the failed 1984 campaign was partially to introduce himself on the national stage for the next time anyway. And this time out, he quickly becomes the front runner for the nomination and the general election.

 

Want to know what happened next? I guess you have to watch the movie.


(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 08, 2018 at 09:00 AM | 1559 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: movie, off topic, politics

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   1. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:22 AM (#5762272)
HOW WILL THE ANGELS LOSE TODAY?
   2. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:30 AM (#5762275)
womyns, amiright?

President Donald Trump has historically low favorability among women, with the Pew Research Center now reporting that 63 percent of women disapprove of how he is doing his job—compared with 30 percent who approve. That might not be surprising, given the range of things that Trump has said and done that might be seen as offensive to women. There’s the famous “Access Hollywood” tape that gave rise to thousands of ##### hats, the 22 women who have publicly accused him of sexual harassment and assault, and the hush money his personal lawyer has admitted to paying to cover up marital indiscretions. There is Trump’s tendency to insult women, from Carly Fiorina to Megyn Kelly to Mika Brzezinski. Most recently, there was his rally in Mississippi, during which the president mocked Dr. Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations that Brett Kavanaugh, who has since been confirmed to the Supreme Court, had sexually assaulted her when they were teenagers.

* * *
The gender gap began with white men leaving the Democratic Party in the late 1950s and early 1960s in response to the civil rights and women’s movements, Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg explains. Only more recently did women start actively leaving the GOP. For two decades now, they have been leaking away from the Republican Party, very slowly becoming independents, while independents have been drifting toward the Democrats. In 1994, according to Pew, 42 percent of women identified as or leaned Republican, as did 52 percent of men. By 2017, only 37 percent of women and 48 percent of men still did. In 1994, 48 percent of women and 39 percent of men identified as or leaned toward the Democrats. By 2017, those numbers were 56 percent of women and 44 percent of men.

Trump’s election put this gender shift “on steroids,” Greenberg says. According to Pew, the share of American women voters who identify with or lean toward the Republican Party has dropped 3 percentage points since 2015—from 40 percent to 37 percent—after having been essentially unchanged from 2010 through 2014. By 2017, just 25 percent of American women fully identified as Republicans. That means that when, say, 84 percent of Republican women say they approve of Trump and his actions, or 69 percent of Republican women say they support Kavanaugh, or 64 percent say they, like Trump, don’t find Ford very “credible,” those percentages represent a small and shrinking slice of American women.

These shifts in party allegiance might seem mild, but they matter. As Rutgers political scientist Kelly Dittmar recently wrote, women have voted in higher numbers and at higher rates than men for decades. In 2016, according to Dittmar, 9.9 million more women than men voted, and about 63 percent of eligible females voted, compared with 59 percent of eligible males. If more women than men vote in November, women’s shift toward the Democrats is likely to be over-represented on Election Day—especially in an election like this one, in which women are highly mobilized and motivated. The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walters recently noted: “The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found that [white college-educated women] support a Democrat for Congress by 22 points—58 percent to 36 percent. In 2014, they preferred a Democratic Congress by just 2 points.”
   3. BDC Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5762276)
Is anyone else reading Michael Lewis' Fifth Risk? I am about halfway through. It is interesting, but I think there's a better book in the material than Lewis got out of it. It's kind of superficially executed. But it has an intriguing thesis, which is why I got it: that whatever your ideology, the federal government is steward of an enormous amount of important stuff; and that Democratic and even the most drown-the-government Republican administrations of the past have worked hard at that stewardship – until the current administration, which is insanely ignorant and incompetent at every conceivable level.
   4. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:47 AM (#5762278)
Mindlessly repeating "job interview" does not make a confirmation hearing a job interview. Moreover, even if it were a job interview, the presumption of innocence should (as a normative, not legal principle) apply. If someone has already gone through all his rounds of interviews and you're happy with him and preparing to send out the letter offer, and then you get an anonymous call (and the caller later reveals herself, as someone you don't know and have no a priori reason to trust) claiming that 30 years ago the guy embezzled from his then-employer, I would hope you would not just revoke the job offer. And if the caller could provide no details of any sort about the purported act, and all they had was the naked accusation, and the applicant denied it, I would hope the potential employer would dismiss the accusation based on fundamental fairness.

(Hell, liberals don't even want employers to be allowed to ask job applicants if they've been convicted of crimes.)
   5. BDC Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:48 AM (#5762279)
Trump’s election put this gender shift “on steroids,”


Per the Roper Center, 41% of women voted for Trump in 2016 – neatly, the same as Mondale got of all voters in 1984, as noted in TFE.

No doubt someone will swoop in and make the astonishing observation that women (and men either) don't vote as overwhelmingly in blocs as black or Hispanic voters. But still, the gender polarization in 2016 was remarkable (women 54-41 for Clinton, men 52-41 for Trump).
   6. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:49 AM (#5762282)

Is anyone else reading Michael Lewis' Fifth Risk? I am about halfway through. It is interesting, but I think there's a better book in the material than Lewis got out of it. It's kind of superficially executed. But it has an intriguing thesis, which is why I got it: that whatever your ideology, the federal government is steward of an enormous amount of important stuff; and that Democratic and even the most drown-the-government Republican administrations of the past have worked hard at that stewardship – until the current administration, which is insanely ignorant and incompetent at every conceivable level.
I only read the long excerpt published in some magazine (forget which, since I read it online) about the transition period. The one which was handled so incompetently because (a) Trump didn't want to spend any money on transition, and (b) the guy in charge, Christie, only got the job as a sinecure, and once it became a real job he got fired by Jared, and not because Jared had someone else in mind but just because Jared hated Christie.
   7. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5762284)

No doubt someone will swoop in and make the astonishing observation that women (and men either) don't vote as overwhelmingly in blocs as black or Hispanic voters. But still, the gender polarization in 2016 was remarkable (women 54-41 for Clinton, men 52-41 for Trump).
The salient point was that PussyGrabber was running against Her, and yet the female vote was ultimately not significantly different than when Obama ran against Romney.
   8. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5762285)
Mindlessly repeating "job interview" does not make a confirmation hearing a job interview. Moreover, even if it were a job interview, the presumption of innocence should (as a normative, not legal principle) apply. If someone has already gone through all his rounds of interviews and you're happy with him and preparing to send out the letter offer, and then you get an anonymous call (and the caller later reveals herself, as someone you don't know and have no a priori reason to trust) claiming that 30 years ago the guy embezzled from his then-employer, I would hope you would not just revoke the job offer. And if the caller could provide no details of any sort about the purported act, and all they had was the naked accusation, and the applicant denied it, I would hope the potential employer would dismiss the accusation based on fundamental fairness.

(Hell, liberals don't even want employers to be allowed to ask job applicants if they've been convicted of crimes.)


...and if the interviewee had said in the interview "Why, I never even worked at a place anything like that!" - but I found out s/he had, the job offer would be revoked regardless and without ever knowing whether the base accusation was true or not.
   9. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5762287)
The salient point was that PussyGrabber was running against Her, and yet the female vote was ultimately not significantly different than when Obama ran against Romney.


2-3 points when we're talking about ~70 million voters is not insignificant.

It's even more important when pussygrabber would have lost if that had been just 2.5 to 3.5 points.
   10. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5762288)

The default position of the Ayn Rand reader is that the person with the most socioeconomic power wins.
Setting aside the strawman (the number of "Ayn Rand readers" is trivial. Very few libertarians are objectivists.), that's not the position at all. The position is that all exchanges must be voluntary, and thus it's not a win-lose situation.
   11. BDC Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5762289)
Yes, Lewis tells the story of the failed transition very well. But most of The Fifth Risk is not about Donald Trump or the palace personnel; it centers on political appointees past and present in departments like Energy and Agriculture. Though the NYT and WaPo etc., the "opposition media," have done some reporting on the chaos at that level of government, I wish they would do a lot more, and spare us the palace-gossip and personality-driven stories about the White House.
   12. perros Posted: October 08, 2018 at 10:58 AM (#5762292)
From the lede:

It’s a good movie, but I wish it was more willing to deal with its central conundrum. Voters were arguably right to want better private behavior from their public leaders. Yet, that desire allowed openly immoral folks to take the reins of power.


'Tis extraordinarily true -- the Democrats, the press, and the liberal public believe all the hogwash about arcs of history and inevitable progress, that if we personally align ourselves on the moral side of things, everything's gonna be alright.

The conundrum is we have to align ourselves collectively towards justice on all fronts to achieve justice on lesser ones. We can't blithely proclaim ourselves capitalists and not reap the inevitable consequences -- gross economic inequality, catastrophic climate change, and the rule of a handful of billionaires over the rest of us. You can't vote for guargantuan military expenditures, endless covert global war, and mass surveillance -- for technological empire -- and expect democratic government at home.

One of the many terrible things about Kavanaugh's confirmation is that Christine Blasey Ford, herself the beneficiary of class privilege -- rich white woman raised in toney DC who goes on to a highly successful career teaching in one of the wealthiest enclaves in the world -- is not to be believed when she tells us a powerful man sexually attacked her as a 15-year-old, and who is to be openly mocked by not just the President but leading sycophants like Hatch, Graham, and Grassley. If there is no social justice for Ford, what's the likelihood of a 15-year-old girl getting justice now when we've nationally broadcast the fact that if you are powerful enough, your despicable actions have no consequences?

Welcome to Trumpland.
   13. BDC Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5762293)
2-3 points when we're talking about ~70 million voters is not insignificant


Yes, and it's also getting more polarized:

Candidate    Men   Women
Obama 2008   
+1     +13
Obama 2012   
-7     +11
HRC   2016   
-11    +13 


Maybe that'll cycle back eventually, but at least in 2016 it's hard to ignore how differently men and women voted.
   14. bobm Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5762294)
I only read the long excerpt published in some magazine (forget which, since I read it online) about the transition period. The one which was handled so incompetently because (a) Trump didn't want to spend any money on transition, and (b) the guy in charge, Christie, only got the job as a sinecure, and once it became a real job he got fired by Jared, and not because Jared had someone else in mind but just because Jared hated Christie.


The Guardian (UK): ‘This guy doesn’t know anything’: the inside story of Trump’s shambolic transition team
   15. bobm Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:06 AM (#5762297)
If there is no social justice for Ford, what's the likelihood of a 15-year-old girl getting justice now

Higher now versus her waiting 36 years from now to report it.
   16. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5762299)
Setting aside the strawman (the number of "Ayn Rand readers" is trivial. Very few libertarians are objectivists.)

Yup, someone who doesn't know the significant differences between objectivism and libertarianism isn't qualified to comment on either.
   17. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5762300)
the number of "Ayn Rand readers" is trivial.

Over 7 million copies of Atlas Shrugged have been sold, and nearly 6.5 million copies of The Fountainhead. Much as I'd like to think that these readers are all now dead**, we've still got one of them as Speaker of the House, and another one whom IIRC you said you once voted for.

** Other than those who've read Miz Rand for reviewing or anthropological purposes
   18. perros Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:10 AM (#5762302)
The position is that all exchanges must be voluntary, and thus it's not a win-lose situation.


There's voluntary for Wal-mart, the wealthiest owners in America, who have a vast pool of low-income laborers from which to pull, and there's voluntary for trailer park girl, whose just lost everything she owns in a hurricane and has been out of work a month and can reach for the relative wages and roof overhead of the Supercenter vs no food, no clothing, no shelter. Hopefully all that polution won't make her sick and in need of money and time off for doctor care.

So yeah, there's still winners and losers even if things could always get worse for TPG.
   19. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:12 AM (#5762304)

From the lede:
It's highly symbolic/ironic that perros says "from the lede" and then actually quotes from the last paragraph of the story; he's as bassackwards about this as about everything else.

We can't blithely proclaim ourselves capitalists and not reap the inevitable consequences
i.e., wealth, comfort, liberty... But we can pretend that other failed models can get us those things.

and who is to be openly mocked by not just the President but leading sycophants like Hatch, Graham, and Grassley. I
Neither Hatch nor Graham mocked her, openly or otherwise. But one would hope that being a rich white person with family connections and a good job don't cause people to suspend fundamental principles of justice.
what's the likelihood of a 15-year-old girl getting justice now
That would depend on whether the 15-year-old girl has evidence, or whether she waits 35 years to come forward.
   20. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:16 AM (#5762306)
Over 7 million copies of Atlas Shrugged have been sold, and nearly 6.5 million copies of The Fountainhead.
Over periods of 61 and 75 years, respectively. There are 325 million people in the U.S. now, and obviously many more millions over those decades. 7 million -- or even 13.5 million, if you assume there's no overlap at all between purchasers of the two books -- is thus relatively trivial.
   21. strong silence Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:16 AM (#5762307)
Who is more hated: Christopher Colombus or Brett Kavanaugh?
   22. Lassus Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:16 AM (#5762308)
That would depend on whether the 15-year-old girl has evidence, or whether she waits 35 years to come forward.

Not really sure why she would bother coming forward at all at this point. "Do you have evidence he stuck his hand up your skirt? OK, sorry. Try next time. Unless you're lying."
   23. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:20 AM (#5762309)
But one would hope that being a rich white person with family connections and a good job don't cause people to suspend fundamental principles of justice.


Yet, the continual recitation of his resume was ultimately used time and time again as a defense.

This call to objective standards would ring more true if that weren't the case... if it wasn't continually - nakedly - implied that he just couldn't have done such a thing because look at all the good schools and good jobs!
   24. perros Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:21 AM (#5762310)
I read most of Rand in high school and went off to college as Reagan's human veal, but that dastardly Committee on Central America commie pinko fag* was allowed to set up a table in the commons, and the rest is history.

*Later murdered in cold blood during the first Gulf War.
   25. perros Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5762311)
actually quotes from the last paragraph


The lede of this thread, you pedantic moron. But yeah, I support the idea that the last shall be first.
   26. Greg K Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5762313)
Over periods of 61 and 75 years, respectively. There are 325 million people in the U.S. now, and obviously many more millions over those decades. 7 million -- or even 13.5 million, if you assume there's no overlap at all between purchasers of the two books -- is thus relatively trivial.

Are those purely US sales? Otherwise the denominator might be bigger. I know a couple Ayn Rand readers up here.

Though oddly enough both of them are big government lefties. One just liked her story telling. The other is my mom who took to Rand's celebration of selfishness (because she is by nature the most selfless person in the world, so hearing the opposite did her some good).
   27. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5762314)
Over 7 million copies of Atlas Shrugged have been sold, and nearly 6.5 million copies of The Fountainhead. Much as I'd like to think that these readers are all now dead**, we've still got one of them as Speaker of the House, and another one whom IIRC you said you once voted for.

Over periods of 61 and 75 years, respectively. There are 325 million people in the U.S. now, and obviously many more millions over those decades. 7 million -- or even 13.5 million, if you assume there's no overlap at all between purchasers of the two books -- is thus relatively trivial.


And yet her views continue to influence policy whenever a Republican wins the presidency, trivial as you think those millions of readers might be. And that's not even counting the numbers of non-readers of hers who parrot her cliches about the evils of government and the inherent nobility of businessmen.
   28. perros Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:27 AM (#5762315)
i.e., wealth, comfort, liberty..


Curious how a lot of high tech billionaires are doomsday preppers.
   29. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:28 AM (#5762316)
Over periods of 61 and 75 years, respectively. There are 325 million people in the U.S. now, and obviously many more millions over those decades. 7 million -- or even 13.5 million, if you assume there's no overlap at all between purchasers of the two books -- is thus relatively trivial.

Are those purely US sales? Otherwise the denominator might be bigger.

No, AFAIK those are worldwide sales, although one would have to assume that the great majority of her readers are / were American. As recently as 2008, Atlas Shrugged was the 9th best selling book in the U.S.
   30. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:29 AM (#5762318)
Not really sure why she would bother coming forward at all at this point. "Do you have evidence he stuck his hand up your skirt? OK, sorry. Try next time. Unless you're lying."

So you would outright lie to a 15-year-old about what happened at the hearing in order to make her less likely to seek justice because you want to slander your political enemies? Perhaps my warm feelings for you are over-sentimental (especially since they're not shared). Never expected you to go full-blast Samdy-repugnant.
   31. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:34 AM (#5762322)

And yet her views continue to influence policy whenever a Republican wins the presidency,
I wish.
   32. JL72 Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:38 AM (#5762323)
Yes, Lewis tells the story of the failed transition very well. But most of The Fifth Risk is not about Donald Trump or the palace personnel; it centers on political appointees past and present in departments like Energy and Agriculture. Though the NYT and WaPo etc., the "opposition media," have done some reporting on the chaos at that level of government, I wish they would do a lot more, and spare us the palace-gossip and personality-driven stories about the White House.


I talked to an acquaintance at a party a little over a year ago about this and her take was very interesting. She works at a "lesser" department in a civil service position, but is pretty high up and reports to an appointed position. She was working on a project that the head of her agency is against, but as of that point, there were hardly any appointments even made, let alone confirmed, in her area of the department. Add to it she had not, at that point, received any direct instructions on what to do with her project.

So while she is following the last instructions she received, she knows that is almost certainly not what the secretary of her department wants. But she has to wait to get instructions, which have not occurred. She found it very frustrating, particularly when she hears comments about the "deep-state" that is allegedly undermining Trump.
   33. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:38 AM (#5762324)

Not really sure why she would bother coming forward at all at this point. "Do you have evidence he stuck his hand up your skirt? OK, sorry. Try next time. Unless you're lying."
Well, at a minimum, one could likely establish whether the accused was at the place and time that the attack allegedly took place; that's something. One could establish her reaction and behavior right after the attack. (And his, for that matter.) There might actually be physical evidence.
   34. Lassus Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5762325)
Re: #30, I'm at a loss for what you're getting at. What I quoted of David's said nothing about the hearing. He said it depended on a 15-year-old having evidence of an assault. My "hand up skirt" was an example of a common teenage type of assault, and did not have to do with Ford.
   35. JL72 Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5762327)
Over periods of 61 and 75 years, respectively. There are 325 million people in the U.S. now, and obviously many more millions over those decades. 7 million -- or even 13.5 million, if you assume there's no overlap at all between purchasers of the two books -- is thus relatively trivial.


This is a good point, although the citation to book sales is silly, considering the number of us who read Rand by borrowing from the library or from someone else.
   36. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5762328)
This call to objective standards would ring more true if that weren't the case... if it wasn't continually - nakedly - implied that he just couldn't have done such a thing because look at all the good schools and good jobs!
Nobody said -- or "implied" -- any such thing. His background was recited only for the proposition that (a) he couldn't have been so successful if he were a guy who was continuously getting blackout drunk, and (b) nothing in the last 35 years is consistent with Ford's allegations. (And more specifically, many of those "good jobs" required background checks, at which nothing like this came out.)

EDITED TO ADD: Nobody said that someone who went to Georgetown Prep or Yale couldn't be a rapist by dint of those resume items.

(Indeed, certain people argued the opposite, that people from Georgetown Prep are all douchey rapey people.)
   37. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5762329)

This is a good point, although the citation to book sales is silly, considering the number of us who read Rand by borrowing from the library or from someone else.
I considered that -- but the counterpoint is how many people bought the books but never read them. (Especially A.S.)
   38. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5762330)
Nobody said -- or "implied" -- any such thing. His background was recited only for the proposition that (a) he couldn't have been so successful if he were a guy who was continuously getting blackout drunk, and (b) nothing in the last 35 years is consistent with Ford's allegations. (And more specifically, many of those "good jobs" required background checks, at which nothing like this came out.)


Oh.

I didn't realize that you have Clapper - at minimum - on ignore.
   39. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5762333)
Well, at a minimum, one could likely establish whether the accused was at the place and time that the attack allegedly took place; that's something. One could establish her reaction and behavior right after the attack. (And his, for that matter.) There might actually be physical evidence.

And presumably, in this situation, the victim didn't wait to come forth at the exact right time decades later to get her political enemies, didn't outright lie in order to try and not testify, didn't set her testimony based on conditions to make her case as non-reviewable as possible, didn't refuse to make all the evidence she did have available, and didn't send her friend to try to get people to change...err..I mean "clarify" their stories in her favor.
   40. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5762334)
Racist Nazi symbol found on North Charleston police flashlight; origin a mystery

After a white North Charleston officer was fired for hitting a handcuffed black man, a search of his car revealed a police-issued flashlight emblazoned with a racist Nazi symbol and the words “The Wig Splitter.”

Officer Leroy Hair denied ownership of the flashlight and any knowledge of its origin. But he suggests in a new lawsuit that it had been used by other officers to beat minority suspects.
   41. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:48 AM (#5762335)
Re: #30, I'm at a loss for what you're getting at. What I quoted of David's said nothing about the hearing. He said it depended on a 15-year-old having evidence of an assault. My "hand up skirt" was an example of a common teenage type of assault, and did not have to do with Ford

You're suggesting having fair standards for evidence is the same thing as telling 15-year-old assault victims to not report their assaults. That's frightening.
   42. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:49 AM (#5762337)
But again you miss the point: that Ford couldn't bring forth any evidence to support her claims against Kavanaugh is not reason to conclude that Kavanagh must be guilty.

Except that's not what I've said. What I've said is the absence of any other eyewitnesses to, and / or tangible physical evidence of the attack, is not in itself reason to assume that Kavanaugh is innocent.

Those are two different assertions, no matter how many times you try to conflate them.


Yes, they are. Mine presumes innocence which is fundamental in American society. Yours presumes guilt and therefore is immoral.

This is not a court of law


This was not a court of law, but it became a de facto court of law since it became a stand-in for a court of law: people like you wanted to destroy Kavanaugh's life and family over politics the word of one accuser regarding events that happened -- or did not happen -- 35 years ago when the only evidence we had about the night in question corroborated Kavanaugh's version that he had nothing to do with any of this. That is offensive to any just society.

, and the standard should be this: Relative believability.


You made that up but if we're going with it then Kavanaugh was more believable to me regarding events on the night in question -- if there was a night in question. He said he wasn't there, and it turned out there was no proof he was ever there, and it turned out that the only corroborating evidence we had, from Keyser, corroborated Kavanaugh's version that he wasn't there. Kavanaugh said he did not doubt that Ford was assaulted by someone, somewhere, at some time, but that it wasn't him, and he said he meant no ill will towards her. Meanwhile, **Dr.** Ford said she was 100% sure when she should know from her training and advanced degrees and her professional work that she couldn't have been. Her 100% sure did not ring true to me.

You were trying to string him up when you couldn't even show that Ford and Kavanaugh were at the same place at the same time. That is horrific.

It's not Kavanaugh's fault that Ford spoke to nobody about this for 30 years.

And when not a single Senator is willing to say out loud that Ford was making up her story, when their only argument is some variant of the doppelganger theory, when many people who knew Kavanaugh at Georgetown Prep and Yale testify as to his proclivity to be out of control when he was drunk, when his drinking buddy Mark Judge devoted an entire book to describing that drinking culture, and when not a single acquaintance of Ford's has ever said anything about any tendencies on her part to invent tales out of whole cloth, who seems more believable to you?


Kavanaugh does. They testified. We have witness statements under oath. We have an FBI investigation. And from all of that my conclusion is that while I don't think Ford is making up her story I think this is probably all in her head with respect to Kavanaugh. And I think she's actually not sure in her own mind with respect to Kavanaugh but -- like the theory that Kavanaugh was blackout drunk at times but couldn't admit it because then people would think he's a rapist -- Ford knows she can't admit to any uncertainty on her part or people will conclude that Kavanaugh is innocent.
   43. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5762338)
39- Is your take on this that Dr Ford was just a lying #####, that she made up the incident and tried to bring down Kavanaugh for political purposes (or even for no purpose whatsoever, she’s a lying #####, her malevolence is motiveless)?
   44. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5762339)
Innocence is the default assumption,

Not in a job interview.


Job interviews, my dearest SBB, aren't normally televised to the world; they do not normally consist of witnesses being questioned under oath; they do not normally consist of a lynch mob sneering at the job applicant presuming that he's a rapist; they do not normally consist of an 11th hour or 12th hour accuser injecting herself into the proceedings so that she can testify that the job applicant is a rapist and she knew this 35 years ago but didn't tell anyone for 30 years.

Once we have that, we don't have a job interview; we have a proceeding that is for the purpose of determining whether the job applicant is a rapist. And once we have that, if we don't implement some measure of due process and apply the proper standard of proof we're conducting Salem Witch Trials.
   45. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5762340)
Well, at a minimum, one could likely establish whether the accused was at the place and time that the attack allegedly took place; that's something.


And for a 15 yo, I imagine most of these places would be things like school, pep rallies, parties, and places most people would say mean nothing - and the only people who might have a clear recollection of the alleged assaulter being there would likely be buddies of his.

One could establish her reaction and behavior right after the attack.


Oh? Meaning... what. There's a proper and obvious reaction? She was crying? Or mad? Or dazed and out of sorts? Or evasive? So, you establish her reaction -- and the wide gamut of possible reactions allows you to determine... what, exactly?

(And his, for that matter.)


Same question in the inverse.

There might actually be physical evidence.


As always, penetration or bust.
   46. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:53 AM (#5762341)
I considered that -- but the counterpoint is how many people bought the books but never read them. (Especially A.S.)

The problem with the Rand books is that they're kinda shitty. Every character is a cookie cutter trope and every point is made in the bluntest way possible. I'm for individual liberty, the only real protection for civil liberties being recognized, but I don't want to read a crude philosophy book shoehorned into an even cruder story.

"Freedom of choice is as important in economic decisions as in every other aspect of life," takes about 1.5 seconds to read and is no less useful than Atlas Shrugged.
   47. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:54 AM (#5762343)
This is not a court of law

Party of Science©.

Evidence is *always* important to an honest person.
   48. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:55 AM (#5762344)
When a woman tells you she’s been raped and she knows who raped her, you should assume she’s lying. Cuz ####### be like that.
   49. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:55 AM (#5762345)
Re: #30, I'm at a loss for what you're getting at. What I quoted of David's said nothing about the hearing. He said it depended on a 15-year-old having evidence of an assault. My "hand up skirt" was an example of a common teenage type of assault, and did not have to do with Ford

You're suggesting having fair standards for evidence is the same thing as telling 15-year-old assault victims to not report their assaults. That's frightening.


I guess it does depend on the politics of the accuser and the accused.

So, before proffering any advice to the 15 yo - we need to discover her politics and that of the accused.
   50. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:56 AM (#5762346)
This is not a court of law

This was not a court of law, but it became a de facto court of law since it became a stand-in for a court of law


A court of law where neither guilt nor innocence is pronounced and the "jury" are allowed to openly proclaim their verdict well in advance of testimony. If that's "de facto court", it's a de facto kangaroo court.
   51. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5762347)
This is not a court of law

Party of Science©.


I'm sorry, upon scientific review I've determined this was indeed a court of law. Please update your references appropriately.
   52. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:00 PM (#5762349)

Davo is desperately, frantically, trying to get someone to say that they think she's a liar so that he can then viciously smear them for doing so. (That is, on the rare occasions when he doesn't just come out and attribute that position to people without bothering to ask them.)

But the bottom line is that the presumption of innocence is not the same as calling accusers liars, as much as radical feminists want to demonize this basic principle of due process. Indeed, in the context of a criminal trial (yes, leftist people, you don't have to all rush to say that this isn't one; I know. I am just making a general point), for any crime, one should acquit even if one believes the accuser is telling the truth, if one can't be certain beyond a reasonable doubt.


(My position wrt Kavanaugh is that there is insufficient evidence to brand him as an attempted rapist. I don't know whether Ford is lying or not. I'm not branding her a liar any more than I'm branding him an attempted rapist. I don't know if she's honestly mistaken or not. I prefer to focus on evidence. And focusing on said evidence, no fair-minded person could find him guilty by any reasonable standard.)
   53. Jay Z Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:00 PM (#5762350)
The problem with the Rand books is that they're kinda shitty. Every character is a cookie cutter trope and every point is made in the bluntest way possible. I'm for individual liberty, the only real protection for civil liberties being recognized, but I don't want to read a crude philosophy book shoehorned into an even cruder story.


But that's what the audience for her books wants. Big scary liberal monsters. There's certainly a substantial audience for any book that drives a partisan point home with a sledgehammer.
   54. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:02 PM (#5762351)
That would depend on whether the 15-year-old girl has evidence, or whether she waits 35 years to come forward.

Not really sure why she would bother coming forward at all at this point. "Do you have evidence he stuck his hand up your skirt? OK, sorry. Try next time. Unless you're lying."


I hope Lassus never gives advice to a sex abuse victim. He has completely missed the point of all of this, which is that Ford waited 30-35 years to implicate Kavanaugh, she was unable to bring forth corroborating evidence of any sort, she lacked major details that would enable her story to be tested, her own witness folded on her, she was difficult for the committee to work with, she refused to provide evidence to the committee even though she provided it to the Washington Post, etc.
   55. BDC Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:04 PM (#5762353)
I'm for individual liberty, the only real protection for civil liberties being recognized, but I don't want to read a crude philosophy book shoehorned into an even cruder story


Virginia Woolf was fiercely in favor of Radclyffe Hall's right to publish the lesbian novel The Well of Loneliness – a novel Woolf considered to be a "pale tepid vapid book."

   56. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:05 PM (#5762354)
Not really sure why she would bother coming forward at all at this point. "Do you have evidence he stuck his hand up your skirt? OK, sorry. Try next time. Unless you're lying."

So you would outright lie to a 15-year-old about what happened at the hearing in order to make her less likely to seek justice because you want to slander your political enemies?


Indeed. This is contemptible.
   57. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5762356)

The problem with the Rand books is that they're kinda shitty. Every character is a cookie cutter trope and every point is made in the bluntest way possible.
Someone I respect observed relatively recently that Rand's heroes are all completely unbelievable cartoon characters -- but her villains are all too realistic.

but I don't want to read a crude philosophy book shoehorned into an even cruder story.
Well, she's not a good writer, but her books do convey those philosophical views more vividly than any dry philosophy text could. I mean, I like Nozick, but Anarchy State and Utopia is not quite the page turner that even A.S., let alone the Fountainhead, is. And, yeah, you could sum up the premise in your 1.5-second sentence, but I think she does effectively make the moral case for economic liberty more clearly than most.
   58. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:09 PM (#5762357)
So if Ford hadn’t been so stupid and irresponsible, and had done the smart thing and told the police right away that Kavanaugh and Judge had tried to rape her, what do you think woulda happened next?
   59. strong silence Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5762360)
Maybe if the Indians hadn't bothered to wait 350 years we would take their alegations against Columbus more seriously.

Can any Indian even prove that Columbus was there at the time of the alleged genocide?
   60. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5762361)
I wrote:
Davo is desperately, frantically, trying to get someone to say that they think she's a liar so that he can then viciously smear them for doing so. (That is, on the rare occasions when he doesn't just come out and attribute that position to people without bothering to ask them.)


And of course while I was writing that, he came out and posted:
When a woman tells you she’s been raped and she knows who raped her, you should assume she’s lying. Cuz ####### be like that.
See what I mean? I mean, I'm not sure how much of this performance art is just an excuse for Davo to keep saying the word ####### while pretending he's speaking in other people's voices.
   61. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:13 PM (#5762363)

So if Ford hadn’t been so stupid and irresponsible, and had done the smart thing and told the police right away that Kavanaugh and Judge had tried to rape her, what do you think woulda happened next?
That depends on many things, though in 1982 maybe nothing, but Kavanaugh wouldn't be a federal judge with such a report out there.
   62. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:14 PM (#5762365)
That depends on many things, though in 1982 maybe nothing, but Kavanaugh wouldn't be a federal judge with such a report out there.


Assuming there would have ben a report, which is a big assumption.
   63. Lassus Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:18 PM (#5762368)
You're suggesting having fair standards for evidence is the same thing as telling 15-year-old assault victims to not report their assaults. That's frightening.

If you say so. I'd say I'm commenting that it's quite easy to see why a 15-year-old girl wouldn't report an assault she had no way of proving or figuring out how to prove in a court of law. You can assign me an appropriate Pol Pot Percentage.

   64. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:19 PM (#5762369)
So if Ford hadn’t been so stupid and irresponsible, and had done the smart thing and told the police right away that Kavanaugh and Judge had tried to rape her, what do you think woulda happened next?


She'd have been grounded for going to a get-together with older boys and beer... and if she's REALLY lucky, maybe one of the po-po would have told the fellas some women be cray-cray so be more careful about who boys just be boys around.
   65. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:22 PM (#5762370)
That depends on many things, though in 1982 maybe nothing, but Kavanaugh wouldn't be a federal judge with such a report out there.


A report of what?

IIRC, there were LOs who said that they were aware of creeper Roy, but nothing on paper... I suppose he wasn't a federal judge, though.
   66. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:22 PM (#5762371)
If you say so. I'd say I'm commenting that it's quite easy to see why a 15-year-old girl wouldn't report an assault she had no way of proving or figuring out how to prove in a court of law.


"Had no way of proving" is doing a lot of work there.

In most cases there is at least some corroborating evidence.

Do you not see the problems with Ford's claim, as detailed here, that caused it to not meet any reasonable standard of proof? Or do you just ignore all of that?
   67. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:23 PM (#5762372)

"Had no way of proving" is doing a lot of work there.

In most cases there is corroborating evidence.


And you know this because of all the sexual assault cases for which you are familiar?
   68. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:30 PM (#5762375)

I'd say I'm commenting that it's quite easy to see why a 15-year-old girl wouldn't report an assault she had no way of proving or figuring out how to prove in a court of law.
As perros noted in #12, wrt Ford we are not talking about some street urchin here; we are talking about someone whose family was also wealthy and socially elite. I'll bet that if she had told them, they could have hired their own attorney to figure out how to handle it. "My dad will know what to do" might have crossed her mind.

For someone from a different background, that might not be (or have been) an option, sure. But it would be sort of an odd takeaway for you to start telling 15-year olds, "Don't bother to report it" rather than "Here's what you should do."
   69. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:31 PM (#5762376)
Here's maybe the best first hand testimony on the culture of Georgetown Prep that I've seen so far, and don't assume from the headline that it's just another liberal rant. If you want to respond to it don't just cherry pick the parts that conform or don't conform to your assumptions about either Judge or Kavanaugh. Read the whole thing:

I Went to Georgetown Prep and Knew Mark Judge—and I Believe Christine Blasey Ford
I have a story to tell about Mark Judge, Georgetown Prep, and Brett Kavanaugh, but it might not be the one you want to hear.

It also might be too late. The horses have left the barn; the votes are all but counted; the Great Betrayal looms. Where are the men who might have stopped it, the boys I knew at Prep who never would have let this pass? You know who you are. You have sons and daughters, wives and lovers. You went to Prep for longer than I did and knew Brett better than I did. Maybe you don’t think he did what Christine says he did. I can respect that. But you were educated by Jesuits too. How could you not stand up, or quietly put in a call to Brett and lend him encouragement? Just a call: “Brett, wait a minute. You’re my friend. I believe you. But we need to look at this. We need to address it. Publicly, honestly, and slowly.” Friends don’t let friends hedge their way onto the highest court in the land.

I attended Prep from the fall of 1980 through the spring of 1982. Brett Kavanaugh and Mark Judge were one year above me, but I had overlapped with Kavanaugh in junior high; and because Judge and I lived in the same neighborhood, we carpooled to Prep for a year or two. They were both popular boys, and I remember them each with that mixture of fear and fondness that only a 14-year-old boy can feel toward well-liked upperclassmen. There is no question in my mind that Christine Blasey Ford is telling the truth.

I believe her not because I know attacks like the one she describes were regularly happening (I don’t and, for the record, I do not know what happened at the party described by Dr. Ford), or because I have some inside knowledge that Brett Kavanaugh was a sexual assailant (I don’t), or because Prep promoted a culture of drunkenness (it didn’t, though some students did drink and party to excess). Prep was a remarkable school, attended by kind boys, run by good teachers, supported by caring parents. For most of us, the drinking and partying were kept in check by sports, school plays, and studies. But I remember Brett, and Mark even more so, and I am convinced that Dr. Ford is telling the truth because of a very specific detail she shared about the night in question. ...
   70. Jay Z Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:37 PM (#5762379)
Someone I respect observed relatively recently that Rand's heroes are all completely unbelievable cartoon characters -- but her villains are all too realistic.


Wrong. See Taggart's Tunnel. Rand basically implied that 300 people on a train all deserved to die.
   71. Lassus Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:37 PM (#5762380)
As perros noted in #12, wrt Ford we are not talking about some street urchin here;

I was speaking generally about any 15-year-old who had been assaulted.


But it would be sort of an odd takeaway for you to start telling 15-year olds, "Don't bother to report it" rather than "Here's what you should do."

Which is not what I said, of course. I'll grant my language was sarcastic, but again, the point is it is quite easy to see why such a thing would go unreported.
   72. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5762382)

Here's maybe the best first hand testimony on the culture of Georgetown Prep that I've seen so far, and don't assume from the headline that it's just another liberal rant.
Well, the part where he says that rich kids deserved to get punched in the stomach by poor black people is kind of consistent with that description.
   73. zenbitz Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5762384)
Once again, I have the technocratic solution.

To go along with replacing all cops with non-lethal robots (with back up "drone" remote command), every many woman and child should wear a body cam that is on at all time, with footage stored in some encrypted archive.

I guess we can stop short of literally *implanting* the cameras because there will be a record of camera disable/disrobing. I guess.
   74. perros Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:45 PM (#5762385)
She found it very frustrating, particularly when she hears comments about the "deep-state" that is allegedly undermining Trump.


Dry rot.
   75. perros Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:47 PM (#5762386)
there will be a record of camera disable/disrobing. I guess.

There goes the last bit of the gig economy.
   76. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:48 PM (#5762387)
Here's maybe the best first hand testimony on the culture of Georgetown Prep that I've seen so far, and don't assume from the headline that it's just another liberal rant.

Well, the part where he says that rich kids deserved to get punched in the stomach by poor black people is kind of consistent with that description.


Right, and never mind the rest of the article, including this:
When I saw that Brett had spent the weekend following at a friend’s house in Rehoboth, I shuddered. I don’t believe I joined him on that occasion, but I know that house. It belonged to the grandmother of a friend of mine. I had spent time with Brett Kavanaugh in it. It might have been in junior high. I can’t be sure. But I know we were still boys then, and we had spent time there as boys do. There were no parties or girls. There was no beer. In the mornings we rode bikes and ate jelly donuts and played basketball for hours—Brett was good—and then went inside and drank pitchers of iced water over Monopoly games that lasted into the evening. It was harmless. Innocent. In retrospect it is heartbreaking to imagine that soon after that week at the beach in 1982, something happened that would ruin lives and more than 35 years later convulse our national politics. I knew the men we’re discussing when they were boys. Our heroes were Holden Caulfield from The Catcher in the Rye and Phineas and Gene from A Separate Peace. We wanted to be like them.

I’m not telling this story to excuse Judge, or Kavanaugh, or an obscene culture that treats women as tasty morsels on a man’s groaning board. I believe Christine Blasey Ford. I’m with her. I admit that while watching her testimony I was thinking, “Please let this not be true. Please.” The cognitive dissonance was overwhelming, uproarious. And she stilled it. She didn’t hedge or prevaricate, or claim to remember things she doesn’t or misrepresent what she does. I’m not saying that anyone else is lying, but I’m certain she isn’t.

This is not an apology for guys or a claim that boys will be boys. I have a 10-year-old daughter and know very well what I would do to a boy who did what I believe was done to Christine. I also have a 7-year-old son and am often baffled by the aggressiveness and anger that seem latent within him, the swamp of emotion through which he is condemned as a male to wade on a daily, even hourly, basis. But I also remember some good things about Georgetown Prep. It wasn’t a gladiator school for proto-rapists. There were decent kids there too, and somewhere, I have to believe, we still have some decency in us.

Who knows the truth, and who can tell it? Christine notes Mark’s ambivalence on that night in in 1982. Did he jump on the bed to join in the assault? Did he do so simply out of the wild teenage exuberance that was characteristic of him, with no clear motivation of any kind? Only Mark could say.

But I knew Mark, a little bit and for only a short time, and I’d like to think that a boy who began to participate in a sexual assault stepped back from the brink, even if for reasons of which he was only dimly aware. I believe that Mark Judge, even in his stupid, drunken state, recognized that something was going on that shouldn’t be going on. That he had a kind of person-to-person awareness of the claims of the other that was lacking in Christine’s assailant. That after having done many wrong things, Mark did one right thing. That he may have prevented the rape of a 15-year-old girl in 1982.


Or the prelude to the story about the punch-out incident:
Dr. Ford’s description of Mark Judge’s behavior on that night rings absolutely true. When I read it I thought to myself, “Yep. That’s Mark Judge. That’s exactly how it would have gone down. You couldn’t make that up.” He was like a slobbering, overgrown puppy, now that I think of it. And many of the boys at Prep—including me—were actually quite fond of him.
   77. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:50 PM (#5762389)
Andy, what do you find noteworthy about the article and how much weight do you give it in assessing whether Kavanaugh sexually assaulted Ford?
   78. perros Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:52 PM (#5762391)
Here's what you should do."


The early 80's way was to gang up on the assailant and beat the #### out of him. That includes the family I know where the sisters had to beat the #### out of their own dad. To this day, I know stories of well-connected creeps walking free.

Certainly can't depend upon creep cops and judges for justice.
   79. Greg K Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:52 PM (#5762393)
To go along with replacing all cops with non-lethal robots (with back up "drone" remote command), every many woman and child should wear a body cam that is on at all time, with footage stored in some encrypted archive.

There was a Black Mirror episode about that. It made for really happy marriages because every argument could be resolved definitively by reviewing the tape.
   80. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:55 PM (#5762395)
Over periods of 61 and 75 years, respectively. There are 325 million people in the U.S. now, and obviously many more millions over those decades. 7 million -- or even 13.5 million, if you assume there's no overlap at all between purchasers of the two books -- is thus relatively trivial.

This is a good point, although the citation to book sales is silly, considering the number of us who read Rand by borrowing from the library or from someone else.
I read the Fountainhead but didn't buy it. I think I found it in my parent's house somewhere. Either that or I got it from the library.

edit: ah I see this was already addressed. Anyway, no particular reason to think the same number of sold copies unread approximately makes up for the number of people that read a copy they didn't buy.
   81. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 12:58 PM (#5762397)
Turley:

The biggest winners?

First, Judge Kavanaugh. For those who insisted he was fundamentally damaged, it is worth noting that he is now about to become Justice Kavanaugh and will cast one of nine votes on the highest court in the nation. Confirmation is a vindication of sorts but certainly is not an expungement. Yet, it is an opportunity to create a legacy in decades of decisions, and he is likely to move the court to the right and to reverse some of the legacy of Justice Anthony Kennedy. This controversy may be the start but it will not be the end of his Wikipedia page.

Next, Professor Ford. While she came forward reluctantly and did not appear to seek fame or its benefits, famous she is and benefits will come. While Democrats insisted that she has nothing to gain, she could gain considerably as a result of her taking a stand before the Senate. She is now a celebrity and likely will be buried in book and movie deals. She has more than half a million dollars waiting for her on GoFundMe. (I have raised prior concerns over this new element to litigation, as witnesses receive windfalls after promising to testify for or against national figures, as seen in the cases of Michael Cohen and Andrew McCabe.) Ford has gone from a professor at Palo Alto University to a social icon.

The biggest losers?

First, Judge Kavanaugh. He will remain an asterisk justice. He may bury it with a long line of opinions but he will never entirely erase it. Half of the country is likely to remain firm in its view that he assaulted Ford and committed perjury on the allegations. His was the type of bruising fight that leaves a deep lasting injury. After his own confirmation controversy, Judge Robert Bork retired from the courts. Justice Clarence Thomas is widely viewed as adopting silence during oral arguments in the aftermath of his hearing. Confirmations generally are seen as not just the culmination but the celebration of a career leading to the Supreme Court. This one, however, was a concession to raw and ugly politics, ending on a final vote on party lines, with only one defection on either side.

Next, Professor Ford. She has now entered the realm of personified politics, more of an object than a person for both sides in waging this war. She will remain either the hero or the villain in the eyes of millions, an instantly recognizable face with instantly strong emotions for people on each side of the controversy. The minute someone leaked her letter, against her express wishes, she entered that realm of personalities who are treated like public domain as universally owned objects.

The greatest loser, of course, is clearly our confirmation process, which was reduced to the level of decorum and deliberation one would see in an episode of “Keeping Up with the Kardashians.” Both sides decided to unleash our primordial instincts, and it will be hard to get people to accept prior standards of order or fairness in the process.


   82. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:01 PM (#5762398)
Dr. Ford’s description of Mark Judge’s behavior on that night rings absolutely true. When I read it I thought to myself, “Yep. That’s Mark Judge. That’s exactly how it would have gone down. You couldn’t make that up.” He was like a slobbering, overgrown puppy, now that I think of it. And many of the boys at Prep—including me—were actually quite fond of him.

Once again, that's not actually evidence. Offering opinions on situations they were not a witness to is just gossip. "Brett Kavanaugh was a fine boy and no way he'd do that," is no less shitty evidence than that.
   83. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5762399)
Here's maybe the best first hand testimony on the culture of Georgetown Prep that I've seen so far, and don't assume from the headline that it's just another liberal rant.

Well, the part where he says that rich kids deserved to get punched in the stomach by poor black people is kind of consistent with that description.


I must've missed that part, but I don't see an issue with it. The law allows you to block the punch and even counter-punch. What's the problem here?
   84. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5762400)
Once again, that's not actually evidence. Offering opinions on situations they were not a witness to is just gossip. "Brett Kavanaugh was a fine boy and no way he'd do that," is no less shitty evidence than that.


Moreover the writer of this piece does not even put Kavanaugh in the bedroom; he merely says (without evidence, but whatever) that he believes **Judge** was there.
   85. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5762401)
(My position wrt Kavanaugh is that there is insufficient evidence to brand him as an attempted rapist. I don't know whether Ford is lying or not. I'm not branding her a liar any more than I'm branding him an attempted rapist. I don't know if she's honestly mistaken or not. I prefer to focus on evidence. And focusing on said evidence, no fair-minded person could find him guilty by any reasonable standard.

Bingo.

Davo, why don't you ask Jim if you can start a new account? Then you can write the things you want to argue against with the new account to your heart's content and then you can triumphantly arrive and dispense your FOR GREAT JUSTICE~! to the other account and climax all over your desk at the thoughts of your all-encompassing inherent goodness. Then everyone will applaud, including Albert Einstein, and carry you out on their shoulders.
   86. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5762403)
Well, the part where he says that rich kids deserved to get punched in the stomach by poor black people is kind of consistent with that description.


I don't think that's what he wrote at all... indeed, the context of the anecdote has almost nothing to do with the thesis you prescibe.
   87. BDC Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5762404)
Rand basically implied that 300 people on a train all deserved to die


Had they all voted to raise her taxes?
   88. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5762405)

Wrong. See Taggart's Tunnel. Rand basically implied that 300 people on a train all deserved to die.
I know the scene. I don't know how that makes what I said "Wrong." If you want to call that scene and the "implication" -- which was about as overt as possible to be without a flashing neon sign -- monstrous, yes. But setting aside that none of those were real characters in the book, as opposed to some background sketches, they were all realistic figures.
   89. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5762406)
I'll confess to being stunned at one thing I've learned here over the past couple of weeks: It's actually fairly stunning how many people here don't understand fundamentally the concepts of evidence and corroborating evidence. They don't understand what these things **are**.
   90. Lassus Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5762407)
I read Anthem, Atlas Shrugged, and the Fountainhead, in that order, from like 19-20 or thereabouts. I only made it 2/3rds of the way through Fountainhead before I was like "man, this is fucked" and gave up on Rand.
   91. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:10 PM (#5762408)
I read Anthem, Atlas Shrugged, and the Fountainhead, in that order, from like 19-20 or thereabouts. I only made it 2/3rds of the was through Fountainhead before I was like "man, this is fuc ked" and gave up on Rand.

Good god, I didn't know anyone could get through that much Rand before dying of boredom.
   92. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:12 PM (#5762410)
I'll confess to being stunned at one thing I've learned here over the past couple of weeks: It's actually fairly stunning how many people here don't understand fundamentally the concepts of evidence and corroborating evidence. They don't understand what these things **are**.

Oh, they understand. They just don't care. The subsect of BTF posters that consists of that ilk believe things on faith with all the fervor of a Young Earther. The only thing that matters is the right result.
   93. Lassus Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:12 PM (#5762411)
Good god, I didn't know anyone could get through that much Rand before dying of boredom.

I really liked LONG books. Also, the first two are kinda sci-fi. (Well, the first one IS sci-fi.)
   94. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5762413)
I'll confess to being stunned at one thing I've learned here over the past couple of weeks: It's actually fairly stunning how many people here don't understand fundamentally the concepts of evidence and corroborating evidence. They don't understand what these things **are**.


More or less stunned than all the attorneys who apparently are unclear what an actual trial is?

It doesn't even rise to the level of clever little trick - pretending this actually WAS a trial or close enough such that all the various games about admissibility and rules of evidence could be cited.

Like I said, correct me if I'm wrong - but I'm pretty sure attorney-authored Do Not Recall statements are only accepted as evidence in lieu of adversarial cross-examination in very narrow circumstances.
   95. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5762414)

There was a Black Mirror episode about that. It made for really happy marriages because every argument could be resolved definitively by reviewing the tape.



Worked out great IIRC!
   96. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5762415)
I really liked LONG books. Also, the first two are kinda sci-fi.

You deserve some kind of trophy for slogging through those back-to-back-to-back.
   97. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5762416)
I don't think that's what he's wrote at all... indeed, the context of the anecdote has almost nothing to do with the thesis you prescibe.
I mean, I practically quoted it word-for-word:
I didn’t tell anyone about it, not even my parents, mostly because I was so weirded out by the whole thing and even more because I felt like I deserved it. Who was I, who were we? Privileged, white, prep-school boys. We had the money, the cars, the country clubs, the green fields, the happy homes. We had all of it, and we deserved a collective punch in the stomach.
(First emphasis in the original, which is annoying because I had wanted to emphasize that; second emphasis mine.)


I'm not sure whether that's more hilarious, or the fact that he wrote an article calling Judge and Kavanaugh attempted rapists (though he actually says nothing about Kavanaugh remotely probative of that accusation) and then feels the need to repeatedly apologize. Not to them, mind you, but to the feminist Weltanschauung generally.
   98. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5762417)

More or less stunned than all the attorneys who apparently are unclear what an actual trial is?

It doesn't even rise to the level of clever little trick - pretending this actually WAS a trial or close enough such that all the various games about admissibility and rules of evidence could be cited.

Like I said, correct me if I'm wrong - but I'm pretty sure attorney-authored Do Not Recall statements are only accepted as evidence in lieu of adversarial cross-examination in very narrow circumstances.


He's just doing his Constanza / Scott Adams act where he simultaneously is flabbergasted and astounded that nobody else in the world sees things the way he does.
   99. Lassus Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5762418)
My position wrt Kavanaugh is that there is insufficient evidence to brand him as an attempted rapist.

I can accept this and still disagree with the outcome of the hearing.

I echo/mirror PreservedFish in that the scope of events, from beginning to end, convince me that Kav is wholly and entirely unsuited for the court and should not be placed in a position of such power.
   100. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 08, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5762419)
(Well, the first one IS sci-fi.)


And the basis for one of the great album sides of all time.
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