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Monday, October 08, 2018

OTP 2018 October 8: Hugh Jackman’s ‘The Front Runner’ Confronts The Political Conundrum Of Our Time

The picture drops us into the thick of the 1984 campaign right as Hart (a low-key and weather Jackman, oddly eschewing his usual star charisma) conceding the nomination to Walter Mondale. As you know, Mondale got slaughtered by Ronald Regan in the general election, losing all but one state in the electoral college (despite still winning 41% of the popular vote). So, four years later, Hart is back in the thick of it, as he argues that the failed 1984 campaign was partially to introduce himself on the national stage for the next time anyway. And this time out, he quickly becomes the front runner for the nomination and the general election.

 

Want to know what happened next? I guess you have to watch the movie.


(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 08, 2018 at 09:00 AM | 1559 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: movie, off topic, politics

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   801. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 10, 2018 at 06:05 PM (#5764350)
flip
   802. PreservedFish Posted: October 10, 2018 at 06:07 PM (#5764352)
“Prepper”= Doomsday prep?


Yes. That wasn't a big part of the story though, in fact now that I think of it they might not have been preppers, but rest assured they were weirdos.
   803. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 10, 2018 at 06:11 PM (#5764354)
I listened to a This American Life report on a teen girl that escaped from her nutty Texas prepper family. She was born on the family compound, homeschooled, forbidden from having a job, etc. She had no birth certificate, no social security card, no nothing. She was unable to get a job or open a bank account or anything like that. Courts couldn't help her at all. It took snowballing media pressure for local politicians to pass a new rule that allowed her to get her first piece of official identification.

Part of the piece explores the culture of people that do everything they can to disappear in this manner. They quote a guy that cannot understand the teen's efforts to integrate in mainstream society - he thinks that her IDlessness is a great blessing. I figured that this was a kind of libertarian wet dream.


I know the story you speak of -- well, I think I do.

In fact, just trying to find a link to it -- I actually found two of them.
   804. PreservedFish Posted: October 10, 2018 at 06:12 PM (#5764355)
Ah, it's the Radiolab one. I got my NPR shows mixed up.
   805. perros Posted: October 10, 2018 at 06:12 PM (#5764356)
I like the idea of being invisible.
   806. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 10, 2018 at 06:19 PM (#5764358)
Punishing women with the death penalty would cut abortions, Idaho Lieutenant Governor candidate says

Nonini added that his wife, Cathyanne, does not share his endorsement of the death penalty even though both are devout Catholics.
   807. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 10, 2018 at 06:32 PM (#5764360)
Democrats up big in Minnesota as Trump approval sags

Two years after Donald Trump came close to carrying Minnesota in the presidential election, Democrats enjoy double-digit leads in the state’s two Senate races, its gubernatorial contest and in voters’ preference for party control of Congress — while more than four in ten likely voters strongly disapprove of the president’s job performance, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll.

The glum picture for the GOP comes as both parties point to the state’s four competitive House races as bellwether contests in the race for control of the lower chamber. The poll finds that 53 percent of likely voters prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats after the November midterm elections, while 41 percent prefer Republicans.

Asked another way, if the midterm election was tomorrow, 54 percent of likely voters in the state say they would vote for the Democrat in their district, while just 40 percent choose the Republican. Democrats have the advantage on that question among all age groups, all income levels and every region except the conservative southern area of the state.
   808. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 10, 2018 at 06:35 PM (#5764362)
   809. BDC Posted: October 10, 2018 at 06:59 PM (#5764372)
Donna Zuckerberg's book Not All Dead White Men (Harvard, 2018) is valuable as documentation, but it is so intent on diving into the Red Pill culture that I found it less readable than I had hoped: the stuff she unearths is just too awful (and she's only quoting the speciously presentable reaches). I wrote this brief note for my website:

Donna Zuckerberg ventures into the vilest reaches of Reddit to report on the uses that the "manosphere" is making of the Greek and Roman classics. She groups the various "men's-rights," anti-feminist, and "pickup artist" philosophies under a catchall term of their own devising, The Red Pill. These guys, while they're not complaining about how women rule the world and enslave them, apparently love to read Marcus Aurelius and the Ars Amatoria. After a sharp introduction, Zuckerberg's book develops a rhythm of giving a useful textbook-like summary of a classical tradition (e.g. Stoicism), and then mining The Red Pill for quotes. The problem is that these quotes are so unbelievably illiterate and moronic that there's barely any sense in examining them. It's as if you were to go back and forth between the dolce stil nuovo and the nearest bathroom wall. I will say this: it's as well to know that such horrors exist, and Zuckerberg's book, while I couldn't finish it, will play its part in documenting a bizarre chapter in 21st-century culture.
   810. perros Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:03 PM (#5764373)
Nonini added that his wife, Cathyanne, does not share his endorsement of the death penalty even though both are devout Catholics.




Call the exorcist
   811. zenbitz Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:03 PM (#5764374)
Funny, I would have been absolutely sure a libertarian would be strongly against voter ID laws.


Ha! They are against MANDATORY Id laws, they are FOR needing an ID to vote or any other hurdle you can put up to spend 'taxpayer money'.
   812. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:06 PM (#5764375)
807 I don’t even know the two GOP Senators challenging up here in MN, which isn’t a great sign. (I am BOMBARDED with ads for the MN3 House of Representatives race, which is between a moderate incumbent Republican with the personality of a tree stump, and his Democratic challenger, some absolute scumbag trust-fund kid who inherited a company from his dad and appears to have never worked a day in his life. It’s a real Alien vs Predator situation.)

The Governor race I know a bit. On the GOP Primary the race was between a moderate with big name recognition (Tim Pawlently) and his rabidly Trumpkin challenger. The Trumpkin ( his name is Jeff Johnson) pulled off a very surprising upset.

On the Democrat side it was a 3-person race. Lori Swanson was a centrist/Hillary type, Erin Murphy was the Leftist/BernieBro pick, and Tim Walz split the difference (and also added a kinda folksy image—he was the only candidate from a rural area, repping the district that borders Iowa. The other two were from Minneapolis. Walz just looks like a sort of guy who actually does spend his weekends hunting and fixing carburetors.)....and Walz wound up with a surprising victory (and Murphy a surprisingly close 2nd place; Swanson was the favorite but did terribly).

This has been your edition of MINNESOTA POLITICS FROM A GUY WHO PAYS A TINY BIT OF ATTENTION.
   813. zenbitz Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:08 PM (#5764376)
The point was that people do need to identify where they live sometimes


What if they live IN A VAN DOWN BY THE RIVER. Or are any other sort of garden variety vagabond.
   814. . Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:11 PM (#5764378)
I will say this: it's as well to know that such horrors exist,


They always have; it's just that pre-Internet it was more widely dispersed and its utterances not as readily made or easily retrievable.

The "manosphere" is hardly a new phenomenon; it used to be found in places like the local tavern or even the old school MLB ballparks. Disco Demolition Night, e.g., was very much the manosphere.
   815. zenbitz Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:12 PM (#5764379)
But, but ... that's all wacky.


It most certainly is NOT. The Libertarian believes there IS a true form of government! They are not *anarchists* after all. That is to protect the property owner from riff-raff foreign and domestic (Police, Courts, and Armed Forces). Obviously, homeless riff raff and vagabonds have no need of such protections (rather: they are to be protected FROM) so there is no need to secure any right for them to VOTE.
   816. BrianBrianson Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:16 PM (#5764381)
I mean - if we just killed everyone, abortions would go to zero. So, if we killed some people, they'd probably go down. Seems reasonable to me.
   817. perros Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:18 PM (#5764383)
“Hey, Olivia.” I turned toward the room again to see Kelly and Ayers entwined, their arms stretched around each other and their faces pressed close together. They smiled theatrically. “This is my friend,” Kelly said.


My theory is Kelly is defacto POTUS. Peobably has a deal with Pence.
   818. perros Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:21 PM (#5764386)
They are not *anarchists* after all.


They wish.
   819. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:22 PM (#5764387)
Where can you even get Brunswick stew any more? That was a cheap staple of my college days in Durham, but I haven't found a restaurant anywhere near DC in the last God knows how many years that even lists it on its menu.

Um. I doubt it was often on DC menus even when you were a boy. Maybe it was.


It wasn't ubiquitous like it was in Carolina, but there were at least a few DC, Virginia and PG County restaurants that had it in the 70's, and probably more when I was in high school and hadn't even heard of it. Don't forget that Washington was a very southern city not that many decades ago, not to mention Northern Virginia.

But in rural NC? I have a friend whose church sells it as a fundraiser. Those ladies make it good, too. For a little extra you can get the original meats.

The late great AB Morris Cafe in Durham, which was right up the block from the new Bulls Stadium, offered Brunswick Stew as a throw-in side dish that counted as a vegetable, even though it was loaded with chicken, rabbit and squirrel. Were they missing anything? Possum, perhaps?
   820. perros Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:25 PM (#5764388)
it's as well to know that such horrors exist


Guys living in their mothers' basements posting to the internet?
   821. perros Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:26 PM (#5764389)
Almost any bbq joint in NC will have Brunswick stew, including the Smithfield's chain.
   822. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:36 PM (#5764392)
807 I don’t even know the two GOP Senators challenging up here in MN, which isn’t a great sign.


The one against Tina Smith is named Housely (sp?) and is mother (sister? Other?) to a famous hockey Housely (sp?) who did some famous hockey stuff or so I am given to understand.

The other one ... is some person who will get destroyed by Amy.

I think. Honestly the state wide campaigns are already over, only the Congressional districts matter.
   823. PreservedFish Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:40 PM (#5764394)
I'd expect that today's Manosphere is more shrill and hateful than yesterday's, both because social media allows the most pathetic losers to find each other, and also because women actually do have more power than they used to. The bile in some of these Red Pill communities is kind of shocking.
   824. bobm Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:41 PM (#5764395)
Frontier said a passenger boarded Flight 1612 in Orlando, saying the squirrel was an emotional support animal.

[...] Frontier said “rodents, including squirrels are not allowed” on its flights.


And that is why Frontier is not the official airline of Walt Disney World and Mickey Mouse.
   825. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:58 PM (#5764400)
I'd expect that today's Manosphere is more shrill and hateful than yesterday's, both because social media allows the most pathetic losers to find each other, and also because women actually do have more power than they used to. The bile in some of these Red Pill communities is kind of shocking.


Nothing says “butch alpha male” like crying about how mean women are to you.

I’d actually love to attend some of their gatherings and ho nob like I did with the white nationalists (because I bet I can pass for a non-woman even BETTER than I can pass as a non-Jew) but I think that crowd skews really young and they’d think I was a narc for Nancy Pelosi.
   826. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 10, 2018 at 08:05 PM (#5764403)
So does Barbara "down 13 and being cut adrift now" Comstock.

Zonk seems to be the one doing the premature crowing here, and he's also citing an outlier poll that used an unusual methodology. The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee is continuing to spend on the race, and the latest poll shows a neck-and-neck race:
New polling from Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock’s campaign shows a closer race in the 10th District than recent public polling would suggest. Comstock led Democratic state Sen. Jennifer Wexton 48 to 47 percent in the survey by McLaughlin & Associates. Only 5 percent of voters were undecided.
. . .
McLaughlin & Associates, which has polled all of Comstock’s state and federal races since 2009, notes in its polling memo to the campaign the Republican has “over performed our own internal polls in every election.”

Might want to wait for some votes to be counted.
   827. bobm Posted: October 10, 2018 at 08:15 PM (#5764407)
[784]

NYC Public Enemy #1 [https://nypost.com/2018/05/30/transit-bandit-ive-taken-thousands-of-trains-on-joyrides/]

The story of Darius McCollum is a fascinating and sad tale of a troubled man and mass transit superfan who has impersonated transit workers and borrowed City buses and subway trains without any authorization, i.e. stolen, for which he has been arrested dozens of times.



Harper's Magazine
May, 2002
The boy who loved transit: how the system failed an obsession. (Report).(imposter posing as employee of the New York City Transit Authority)


Before leaving his girlfriend's apartment in Crown Heights, on the morning of his nineteenth arrest for impersonating and performing the functions of New York City Transit Authority employees, Darius McCollum put on an NYCTA subway conductor's uniform and reflector vest. Over his feet he pulled transit-issue boots with lace guards and soles designed to withstand third-rail jolts. He took transit-issue work gloves and protective goggles. He put a transit-issue hard hat on his head. In his pockets he carried NYCTA work orders and rerouting schedules and newspaper clippings describing his previous arrests: for driving subway trains and buses and various other vehicles without authorization, possessing stolen property, flagging traffic around NYCTA construction sites, forging documents. He also carried a signed letter on NYCTA letterhead:

To: All Concerned Departments

From: Thomas Calandrella Chief Track Officer

Re: Darius McCollum

Effective this date of January 10, 2000, Darius McCollum is a member of a special twelve member Special Study Group; and will analyze the operations of track safety and track operations. SSG will report directly to this office and will be issued all related gear for the respected purposes of this department and will receive assistance of any relating department.

To his belt Darius clipped a flashlight and a key ring the size of a choker. From this ring six smaller rings hung like pendants. Along the curves of the small rings, 139 keys climbed symmetrical and fanlike. Each key granted access to a secure area of the train, bus, or subway system of the New York City Transit Authority. The collection was equivalent to the number of keys an employee would acquire through forty years of steady promotions. Just before he left the apartment, Darius picked up an orange emergency-response lantern.

Six weeks earlier, Darius had been paroled from the Elmira Correctional Facility, near Binghamton, New York, where he had served two years for attempted grand larceny--"attempted" because he had signed out NYCTA vehicles for surface use (extinguishing track fires, supervising maintenance projects) and then signed them back in according to procedure. Darius has never worked for the NYCTA; he has never held a steady job. He is thirty-seven and has spent a third of his adult life in prison for victimless offenses related to transit systems. [...]


NY Post (2016): "Meet New York’s beloved mass transit bandit"


The 51-year-old has already spent 18 years of his life, cumulatively, behind bars for his deftly executed capers, in which he’s worn purloined MTA uniforms and falsified IDs to drive trains and buses as if he was a paid employee.


He is the subject of a new documentary, “Off the Rails,” which chronicles his decades of infamy as one of the city’s most beloved criminals. Friday’s 7:30 screening at the Metrograph will be followed by a Q&A with the director: Adam Irving, making his feature debut, says he was drawn to McCollum’s story. McCollum’s condition, which puts him on the high-functioning end of the autism spectrum, is characterized by obsession with specific topics and difficulty with normal socialization and communication.

“The Asperger’s added this childlike innocence to his crimes,” says the 34-year-old Irving, who adds that part of the reason McCollum got away with so much was because his crimes were so head-scratching in nature. “Why would someone pretend to drive a bus? You’ve got to make the stops, make all the announcements. It’s not, like, a pleasurable thing. Who would do that for free?”

[...]

MTA employees were instrumental in helping him get away with his train and bus sprees, sometimes asking him if he wanted to take over their shifts for the day. But he never revealed their names. “I don’t want people to get hurt or fired,” he says. “People have families.”

His dedication to the MTA workers was so strong, he once attended a strike-planning meeting, voicing his support for employees’ rights. “They asked me to be a union rep,” he says proudly, though he had to turn down the gig for obvious reasons.

In all his years of joyriding, McCollum has never harmed a passenger, though in one incident, he forgot to put a parking brake on a bus, causing it to roll into a car; in another, he is thought to have remotely tripped the emergency brake on a train, which he then flew into action to rescue (though McCollum has never admitted to this, contrary to his usual policy of owning up to his crimes).
   828. perros Posted: October 10, 2018 at 09:20 PM (#5764430)
Thanks, Bob. A saner society would have put McCollum to work for the transit authority in some capacity. Reportedly he's willlingly helped patch security holes in the system, which has been used to further his incarceration.
   829. perros Posted: October 10, 2018 at 09:22 PM (#5764432)
they’d think I was a narc for Nancy Pelosi.


They'd smell actual alpha a mile away...
   830. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 10, 2018 at 09:50 PM (#5764442)
Thanks, Bob. A saner society would have put McCollum to work for the transit authority in some capacity. Reportedly he's willlingly helped patch security holes in the system, which has been used to further his incarceration.


For awhile I had to take the 4 train into Manhattan from Brooklyn. It sucked. At the time it was arguably the most crowded express line (the 1,2 were possibly worse but they are local) and once we got to Atlantic Avenue you'd be lucky to even have a few feet of strap to yourself.

One thing that always put a smile on my face was this conductor that always insisted on saying "GOOD MORNING BROOKLYN, BROOKLYN GOOD MORNING GET TO STEPPIN' BROOKLYN THIS IS NYC GET TO STEPPIN'" and it as a kid from the small town midwest that was really cool. You feel a part of something in NYC, bigger than yourself. Haven't got that feeling in Seattle, at all.
   831. perros Posted: October 10, 2018 at 10:02 PM (#5764444)
Jim Crow Makes a Comeback

Appling-Nunez’s application is one of over 53,000 sitting on hold with Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp’s office. And unlike Appling-Nunez, many people on that list — which is predominantly black, according to an analysis by The Associated Press — may not even know their voter registration has been held up.

Tuesday is Georgia’s deadline to register and be eligible to vote in the November General Election.

Kemp, who’s also the Republican candidate for governor, is in charge of elections and voter registration in Georgia.

His Democratic opponent, former state Rep. Stacey Abrams, and voting rights advocacy groups charge that Kemp is systematically using his office to suppress votes and tilt the election, and that his policies disproportionately affect black and minority voters....

But through a process that Kemp calls voter roll maintenance and his opponents call voter roll purges, Kemp’s office has cancelled over 1.4 million voter registrations since 2012. Nearly 670,000 registrations were cancelled in 2017 alone....

An analysis of the records obtained by The Associated Press reveals racial disparity in the process. Georgia’s population is approximately 32 percent black, according to the U.S. Census, but the list of voter registrations on hold with Kemp’s office is nearly 70 percent black.

Kemp’s office blamed that disparity on the New Georgia Project, a voter registration group founded by Abrams in 2013.
   832. bobm Posted: October 10, 2018 at 10:34 PM (#5764448)
[828]
A saner society would have put McCollum to work for the transit authority in some capacity.

Yes.

From that Post article:

At one point, McCollum found temporary relief from his train-snatching urges by volunteering at Brooklyn’s Transit Museum, where his encyclopedic knowledge was appreciated by the staffers. But higher-ups got wind of it, and he was asked to leave. “The transit police told me it would be good for me there,” he says. “But the bosses said no.”
   833. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 10, 2018 at 10:39 PM (#5764449)
The one against Tina Smith is named Housely (sp?) and is mother (sister? Other?) to a famous hockey Housely (sp?) who did some famous hockey stuff or so I am given to understand.


The hockey player would be Phil Housley - once the highest career scorer among American-born players until Mikey Modano passed him.

I believe he's also got the record for career games without winning a Cup, which doesn't bode well for the candidate (his wife).
   834. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 10, 2018 at 11:12 PM (#5764451)
A saner society would string up people like Brian Kemp by the neck, or tie them to a railroad track and let the first train run over them.

Or let them live, but not come within 100 miles of ever holding a public office.
   835. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 10, 2018 at 11:22 PM (#5764454)
WTF!?!?!?!

Here’s a troubling story out of Texas. Mike Siegel is running against Rep. Michael T. McCaul in Texas’s 10th district. This evening I saw a tweet from Siegel which said: “Just learned that my field director was arrested while delivering our letter. He told police he was working for me and the officer asked, “what party is he?” Now Jacob is under 48 hour investigatory detention in Waller County.”

That didn’t seem right, especially the part about getting arrested after being asked what party he’s affiliated with. So I managed to get Siegel on the phone to get some more details.

In the 10th district, there’s a historically black university called Prairie View A&M University. There’s a long history of the local county government (Waller County) trying to prevent the students there from voting. There was even a big Supreme Court case about it in 1979. This year local officials have put a new set of obstacles in the way of the students voting.

As Mike Siegel explained to me, Siegel’s campaign wrote a letter proposing a solution to the problem and sent a campaign staffer, Jacob Aronowitz, to deliver it to the County Courthouse in Waller County. In Texas, the County Judge (in this case Waller County Judge Carbett “Trey” J. Duhon III) is actually the county executive, not a judge as we usually use the word. In any case, Aronowitz presented the letter to a member of the County Clerk’s staff and then took a picture of himself submitting the letter as a sort of proof of service. It’s not clear whether this was County Clerk Debbie Hollan or another member of the clerk’s office. Whoever it was got upset that he’d taken a picture and called over a bailiff – she apparently thought her privacy had been violated by taking the photograph.

By this time, Aronowitz is walking out of the courthouse, with his mission accomplished when he’s stopped by a county sheriff’s deputy who asks who he is and what he’s doing. Soon enough Aronowitz surrounded by a court bailiff, a sheriff’s deputy and a city police officer. Aronowitz asks whether he is free to go or whether he’s under arrest. He also calls the candidate, Mike Siegel, who’s also a civil rights attorney. So Siegel is listening to the conversation and advising Aronowitz what to do he’s questioned and not allowed to leave.

Siegel didn’t say this to me in so many words. But from his description of the back and forth, it seems like that the law enforcement officers weren’t happy with Aronowitz but weren’t clear what exactly they could charge him with or if they could arrest him. After explaining what he was at the courthouse to do and then identifying himself, one of the officers asked Aronowitz which party his candidate was with.

Aronowitz told them Siegel was a Democrat. A couple minutes later the phone went dead and Aronowitz was placed under arrest for what he was told was “48 hour investigative detention.”

Notably, Siegel heard the party identification question himself, he tells, because he was on Aronowitz’s speaker phone through the whole exchange.


Tell me again why the Republican party shouldn't utterly destroyed and the earth salted afterwards...
   836. PreservedFish Posted: October 10, 2018 at 11:33 PM (#5764455)
I've been pretty disgusted with our country lately.
   837. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 10, 2018 at 11:35 PM (#5764457)
I've been pretty disgusted with our country lately.


Same here. It's 90% Republicans, but Dems did not acquit themselves well during the Kavanaugh thing.,
   838. Lassus Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:26 AM (#5764465)
Haven't got that feeling in Seattle, at all.

You gotta start riding the buses outta the CD.
   839. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:38 AM (#5764466)
Is there a good way to read this?

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN HOST: Last night, President Trump had a sort of ceremony for now Justice Kavanaugh at the White House, and he apologized on behalf the American people for the immense amount of pain and harm that he said that the judge had been put through by this system.

What do you make of that and what message, including the president’s mocking of Christine Blasey Ford for her allegations, what message does that send to women? And remember, went for President Trump in 2016.

HILLARY CLINTON: White women.

AMANPOUR: White women.

HILLARY CLINTON: White women. All women went for me.
And look, White women have been voting against Democratic presidential candidates for decades now. The White vote has only then won twice in the last 60 years. My husband being one of the two. Lyndon Johnson being the other. So, it’s not a surprise. It’s a disappointment but it’s not a surprise.”
   840. Count Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:44 AM (#5764467)
Yes, Ray, she was correcting the common misconception -spread in part by Trump repeatedly saying it- that women voted for Trump over Clinton, when only a subset of women (white women) voted for Trump over Clinton.
   841. perros Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:46 AM (#5764468)
   842. Barnaby Jones Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:49 AM (#5764469)
Exactly how many of each of their opinions have you read to form these assessments?


I attended a symposium where Jamal Greene talked about this; he said he had to read a ton of Kavanaugh's opinions for the confirmation hearings, and he was surprised at how in writing the Justice was even more conservative than he had been expecting.
   843. Barnaby Jones Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:51 AM (#5764471)
Speaking of law guys, is the Raskolnikov that used to post here the professor at Columbia? Or am I getting him confused with a different law professor Mets fan?
   844. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2018 at 01:00 AM (#5764472)
Ray parsing a Hillary Clinton interview in 2018 gives me an amusing flashback to the time he told all the liberals that they were too obsessed with politics and needed to go outside and enjoy themselves.
   845. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 11, 2018 at 01:10 AM (#5764475)
Oh, look - More Judicial Nominations This Evening. Two 2nd Circuit & three 9th Circuit Judges, as well as 8 District Court nominees. The timing is a bit of a surprise, it's too late to hold a hearing or get a vote before Congress adjourns for the year, so they'll likely have to be resubmitted to the new Senate. If they were controversial, that would just give the opposition time to mobilize, which leads me to conclude there may be a deal in place. Schumer signed off on an earlier group of NY Judges, and this may be a similar arrangement. Same with Feinstein for the 9th Circuit. The group seems well-credential - academic excellence at top law schools, prestigious clerkships, government & law firm experience. Several Asians in the group - Trump is likely to set a record for the most Asian Federal Judges, if he hasn't already. Not much reporting yet, so there may more info shortly.
   846. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 11, 2018 at 04:49 AM (#5764483)
Kavs is a hard liner even on a GOP tilted court.
Please stop. Even if the article accurately described the issues or accurately reflected what was said, this is oral argument, not a decision. Sometimes questions asked at oral argument hint at a judge's ultimate decision on a case; sometimes they reflect devil's advocacy. They do not make one a "hard liner," because they are questions, not answers. If you want to criticize Kavanaugh for one of his opinions, then do so. Preferably accurately. But it is just stupid to attack a justice (or any judge) for the questions (s)he asks. (Especially if you're going to do it based on the questions (s)he asks one side, rather than the full panoply of questions posed to both sides.)

Based on the briefings, I'm not sure there are going to be any votes for the respondent's position, which is bizarrely that if a removable alien dodges ICE for 24 hours after being released from prison, he gets treated differently from one who ICE picks up the same day. There's a possible compromise between the government's position and the respondent's, saying that if ICE arrests him within a reasonable time after his release from prison, they can hold him; that sounds like a reasonable (pun intended) policy and all, but the problem is that the statute doesn't say anything like that.
   847. dlf Posted: October 11, 2018 at 04:54 AM (#5764484)
Or am I getting him confused with a different law professor Mets fan?


I think you are thinking of SamM who teaches law in Louisville.
   848. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 11, 2018 at 05:14 AM (#5764486)
Clapper, #826:
Zonk: Barbara "down 13 and being cut adrift now" Comstock.
Zonk seems to be the one doing the premature crowing here, and he's also citing an outlier poll that used an unusual methodology. The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee is continuing to spend on the race, and the latest poll shows a neck-and-neck race:
New polling from Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock’s campaign shows a closer race in the 10th District than recent public polling would suggest. Comstock led Democratic state Sen. Jennifer Wexton 48 to 47 percent in the survey by McLaughlin & Associates. Only 5 percent of voters were undecided.

McLaughlin & Associates, which has polled all of Comstock’s state and federal races since 2009, notes in its polling memo to the campaign the Republican has “over performed our own internal polls in every election.”
Might want to wait for some votes to be counted.


Or, might want a nice full bottle of vodka for when the counting begins. Polling for this seat in the last six months:
Monmouth 6/24-- Wexton by 11% (Monmouth is rated A+ by 538.com)
Monmouth 9/30-- Wexton by 9%
C. Newport U 10/2-- Wexton by 11% (Newport is rated B+)
WashPost/Mason 10/5-- Wexton by 12% (WaPo/Mason is rated A+)
McLaughlin 10/8-- Comstock by 1% (McLaughlin is rated C- and the result gets an additional asterisk from 538 to indicate it’s commissioned by partisans)
Clapper’s penetrating eye for what constitutes the “outlier poll” is dependably glaucomic.

The NRCC is reportedly the only special interest group spending money on behalf of Comstock; all others have either yanked their financial support or never offered any to begin with.
   849. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 08:36 AM (#5764490)
Is there a good way to read this?


Your obsession with Hillary?

Probably not.

I suppose if we want to split hairs, we could talk about whether it's more sad that you can't quit her or that you still think the kindergarten gambit of pulling her hair is a good way to get her attention, but that seems like piling on.
   850. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 08:46 AM (#5764492)
As someone on twitter reminds --

Waller County? Where the local fuzz arrested the campaign volunteer for being a Democrat?

That's the county where the Sandra Bland was arrested (and the arresting officer eventually got charged with perjury and the county settled a wrongful death suit with her family).
   851. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 08:59 AM (#5764494)
WaPo now connecting Mohammad bin Salman directly with efforts to nab Khashoggi

This references a different attempt than the one that ultimately - allegedly - led him to be chopped up into little pieces.

The crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered an operation to lure Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi back to Saudi Arabia from his home in Virginia and then detain him, according to U.S. intelligence intercepts of Saudi officials discussing the plan.
   852. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 11, 2018 at 09:14 AM (#5764496)
851I can’t wait to see how the NYT spins this.
   853. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5764501)
Good thing so many not-really-Trumpkins are keeping the libtards in check...

Otherwise, they might have to spend some time caring about stuff like this.

Staff members at a Phoenix-area shelter for unaccompanied migrant children physically abused three children, leading to the closure of the shelter, federal officials said. It was the latest in a series of incidents of alleged abuse involving staff members at shelters and children.

Southwest Key’s Hacienda del Sol shelter was shut down last Friday, but federal officials did not reveal the reason behind the closure until Tuesday.
   854. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 11, 2018 at 09:29 AM (#5764504)
Maybe people will be more likely to believe that the claim that only a tiny number of rape accusations are false is unsubstantiated if it comes from someone other than me:
The real problem is what question these studies are actually answering. ... People think the question these studies answer is “What percentage of rape reports are false?” In reality, the question they are really answering is “What percentage of rape reports can we classify as false with a high degree of certainty?” As a result, these studies don’t give us binary outcomes.
One commenter summed up this data as follows:

True-ish: 35.3%
Definitively False: 5.9%
Inconclusive: 58.8%

(True-ish because it’s not that all in that category were proven true, but rather that someone found that there was enough evidence to proceed.)

Note that this was posted a couple of years ago, so it isn’t a response to the Kavanaugh situation.

   855. Lassus Posted: October 11, 2018 at 09:39 AM (#5764507)
"Unsubstantiated"

That was totally a drinking game.
   856. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 11, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5764509)
Democrats aim for big gains in state legislatures

This year, voters will elect state legislators to fill 6,073 seats in 87 chambers.

Republicans expect to lose some of their historic edge: The party that controls the White House loses an average of about 350 seats in state legislatures in midterm elections. Democrats lost more than 960 seats during the two midterms when Barack Obama was in office.

Those seemingly mammoth swings come because state legislative seats are notoriously tied to national political trends.

Legislative candidates with little money to spend can be swept away at the whims of an electorate aiming to punish the party that holds the White House.
   857. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 11, 2018 at 09:46 AM (#5764511)
Let’s take a look at the outcomes of the Lisak study next. First up, we have “False Reports” at 5.9%:

Applying IACP guidelines, a case was classified as a false report if there was evidence that a thorough investigation was pursued and that the investigation had yielded evidence that the reported sexual assault had in fact not occurred. A thorough investigation would involve, potentially, multiple interviews of the alleged perpetrator, the victim, and other witnesses, and where applicable, the collection of other forensic evidence (e.g., medical records, security camera records). For example, if key elements of a victim’s account of an assault were internally inconsistent and directly contradicted by multiple witnesses and if the victim then altered those key elements of his or her account, investigators might conclude that the report was false. That conclusion would have been based not on a single interview, or on intuitions about the credibility of the victim, but on a “preponderance” of evidence gathered over the course of a thorough investigation

Is Dr Ford’s allegation “definitively false” by this standard?
   858. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:05 AM (#5764516)
After a sharp introduction, Zuckerberg's book develops a rhythm of giving a useful textbook-like summary of a classical tradition (e.g. Stoicism), and then mining The Red Pill for quotes. The problem is that these quotes are so unbelievably illiterate and moronic that there's barely any sense in examining them.


This is the least surprising thing ever. Fascists always read any text intentionally, to create a support for their world view. This is how Nietzsche became "a Nazi philosopher." That the incels are doing it to Marcus Aurelius isn't shocking.
   859. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5764518)
More...
‘Sweep it under the rug’: Fears grow Trump won't confront Saudis over journalist's disappearance

On Tuesday evening, a group of foreign policy figures attended a dinner with a senior White House official with responsibility for the Middle East. The official kept stressing that the U.S. had significant long-term interests in Saudi Arabia and repeatedly noted that Iran is a top threat, several attendees told POLITICO on condition that some of the details about the event be kept private.

When asked about Khashoggi, the official said the U.S. is still trying to get information about what happened, a statement many in the audience found absurd given that Khashoggi disappeared a week earlier and detailed reports had emerged in the media. The official said nothing about the administration being prepared to hold the Saudis accountable for what happened.

* * *

The White House said Wednesday that the powerful Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, had spoken about Khashoggi the previous day with White House national security adviser John Bolton and Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner. Kushner and the crown prince, who is commonly referred to as MBS, are known to be close.

A former administration official told POLITICO that MBS had demanded the call earlier in the week after the top official at the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh asked MBS directly about the Khashoggi case. The crown prince denied any wrongdoing in his conversation with that embassy official, the former official said.


Led around the ####### nose... So the deeply concerned Jar half of Jarvanka and noted humanitarian John Bolton didn't even initiate the call that the WH was claiming as proof of their desire to 'get to the bottom' of it. MBS wanted to tell them they better keep the US better start keeping their damned mouths shut because he'll have dismembered whomever he damn well wants to have dismembered.

Meanwhile

The Republican and Democratic leaders of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Appropriations subcommittee with responsibility for the State Department sent a letter to President Donald Trump that triggered a provision of 2016 Magnitsky human rights law.

* * *
That provision requires the president to reach a determination within four months on whether an extrajudicial killing has occurred against any individual who promotes human rights, including through freedom of expression, such as the missing Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi. If an assassination is found to have occurred, the law requires the president to decide whether to impose sanctions on any individuals complicit in the death.

* * *
Despite Trump and Kushner’s warm embrace of Salman as a critical regional ally against Iran, Corker suggested the Saudis have overestimated their importance to the United States, and that has caused them to take some actions that have alienated senators. He specifically noted that Menendez, the ranking member on the Foreign Relations Committee, had recently walked out of a meeting the two of them were scheduled to have with Saudi officials after they were late.

“I’ve noticed over the course of time that their posture here, certainly they felt very sure of themselves,” Corker said. “They view their status here as something that it isn’t.”

Sen. Christopher S. Murphy, D-Conn., has led multiple unsuccessful efforts to block the sale of precision-guided munitions to Saudi Arabia and to end U.S. military support of the country’s war in Yemen. But he said he now feels the tide is finally turning in the Senate

“Many of us have argued that we shouldn’t be giving the Saudis the benefit of the doubt, that they are in fact intentionally killing civilians,” Murphy said. “For those that were skeptical of whether the Saudis are intentionally killing civilians in Yemen, this might change their minds.”

But not all senators on Wednesday were quick to criticize Riyadh.

“Our relationship with the Saudis is very important, and we have to be very careful about it,” said Sen. Orrin G. Hatch, R-Utah, who is retiring. “We have to see who is responsible.”


Led. Around. By. The. #######. Nose.

But why should we be surprised?

If Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un can play Trump and his morons and deplorables like fiddles, getting all manner of feting and bro-hugs... only an idiot would expect any less in any malfeasance came from a nominal "ally".

The tough talk BS is reserved for those rogue democratic western allies... like Canada or Germany.

What an embarrassment of a joke of a nightmare of a steaming pile of crap.
   860. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:13 AM (#5764520)
859- But he let women get drivers licenses!
   861. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:17 AM (#5764522)
I hope some of the Trumpholsters might eventually realize there really is a downside to genuflecting to a fat, lazy coward who talks a big game on TV but has actually hidden behind lawyers for his entire life. The man didn't even have the testicles to stand up to Omarosa ("Nobody even told me about it. You know, they run a big operation but I didn’t know it. I didn’t know that. ####### it.") Truly a chickenshit's idea of a tough guy. I'm still astounded anyone was fooled into thinking he was anything other than a gutless, pampered quisling.
   862. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:20 AM (#5764525)
Georgia's Secretary of State Is Blocking 53,000 Voter Registrations as He Runs for Governor

Kemp, who’s also the Republican candidate for governor, is in charge of elections and voter registration in Georgia.

His Democratic opponent, former state Rep. Stacey Abrams, and voting rights advocacy groups charge that Kemp is systematically using his office to suppress votes and tilt the election, and that his policies disproportionately affect black and minority voters.
   863. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:23 AM (#5764529)
“I could say I’m the most bullied person in the world,” Mrs. Trump said in the interview segment that aired Thursday on “Good Morning America.”

Mrs. Trump said her Be Best campaign is focusing on social media and online behavior in part because of “what people are saying about me.”

“We need to educate the children of social emotional behavior so when they grow up … they know how to deal with those issues,” she said.


It's like a contest to see just how pathetically ridiculous these people can be.

   864. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:26 AM (#5764534)
“I could say I’m the most bullied person in the world,” Mrs. Trump said in the interview segment that aired Thursday on “Good Morning America.”


I suppose she could. Nobody would believe her of course, but that doesn't mean she can't say it.
   865. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:27 AM (#5764536)
I suppose she could. Nobody would believe her of course, but that doesn't mean she can't say it.


So you don't believe women!?!?!?!

/Deploraborg
   866. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:29 AM (#5764538)
I hope some of the Trumpholsters might eventually realize


Please.
   867. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:32 AM (#5764541)
862- Republicans will relinquish democracy before they relinquish power.
   868. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5764544)
His Democratic opponent, former state Rep. Stacey Abrams, and voting rights advocacy groups charge that Kemp is systematically using his office to suppress votes and tilt the election, and that his policies disproportionately affect black and minority voters.


If only those darkies didn't outright refuse to vote for properly patriotic candidates they wouldn't make themselves such an easy target for disenfranchisement. Of course this is very troubling and you hate to see anyone denied their access to participating in democracy, but ultimately the negro community has to share the blame for being so partisan.
   869. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:46 AM (#5764555)
“I could say I’m the most bullied person in the world,” Mrs. Trump said


I certainly wouldn't want to imagine what sharing a home with Trump would be like.
   870. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5764557)
@achanticleer
I legitimately think the biggest error of the Reformation is not sola fides or sola scriptura but their hard-core stance against Mary, the Mother of God.

@DerAmiDerReist
It’s not a stance against Mary to not worship her practically on par with God Himself.
Mary was the most holy of women, but she was still just a human.

@ebreunig
Mothers’ bodies contain cells belonging to their children for the rest of their lives Post-pregnancy, so her body actually contained divine and immortal material permanently. Also anti-Marianism is usually just low key beef with women tbh

Ya gotta love Miss Breunig, I don’t care who you are.
   871. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5764559)
Papists. So wacky.
   872. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:54 AM (#5764560)
Mothers’ bodies contain cells belonging to their children for the rest of their lives Post-pregnancy, so her body actually contained divine and immortal material permanently.


SCIENCE!
   873. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5764567)
The human body contains more microbial cells than actual human cells - so what percentage of Jesus was actually divine and immortal?
   874. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5764568)
I certainly wouldn't want to imagine what sharing a home with Trump would be like.


A perspective that had not occurred to me.

I withdraw my mockery.
   875. JL72 Posted: October 11, 2018 at 11:20 AM (#5764582)
An analysis of the records obtained by The Associated Press reveals racial disparity in the process. Georgia’s population is approximately 32 percent black, according to the U.S. Census, but the list of voter registrations on hold with Kemp’s office is nearly 70 percent black.


Not surprising, as Kemp said four years ago:

“Registering all these minority voters that are out there and others that are sitting on the sidelines, if [Democrats] can do that, they can win these elections in November,” Kemp said to Gwinnett County Republicans in 2014.


When people tell you who they are, believe them.
   876. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5764583)
More on the arrest of Mike Siegel's aide for being a Democrat...

Last night I reported this incident in which a campaign staffer with the campaign of Mike Siegel was arrested after delivering a letter about an on-going voting rights controversy to the County Judge’s office. I was able to speak to a representative of the Waller County Sheriff’s office who gave me their version of events.

According to Captain Manual Zamora of the Sheriff’s office, the staffer, Jacob Aronowitz was arrested and charged with “suspicious activity at the courthouse” after he failed to identify himself after being detained. They originally responded to a call from the County Judge’s office where Aronowitz had just dropped off the letter. Significantly, Zamora said the incident was the subject of a on-going investigation. He said he couldn’t discuss the nature of the investigation. (The Siegel campaign says the Deputies confiscated Aronowitz’s cell phone.)

Aronowitz and Siegel say Aronowitz originally refused to identify himself before he was told what he was being detained for but did identify himself prior to being arrested.

One of the key points I was interested in was the claim that a Sheriff’s deputy had asked Aronowitz the party affiliation of the candidate he worked for shortly before arresting him. Zamora said that was the first he’d heard of it and “highly doubted” that it happened. Zamora made clear that he hadn’t read the arrest report. So he could not say definitively that it didn’t happen. But he said such a question “would be highly unusual. That’s not part of our operating procedure.”

I pointed out that both Aronowitz and the candidate Mike Siegel heard the officer ask the question. (Siegel was dialed in on Aronowitz’s cell phone, advising him while he was detained.) Zamora told me, “I can’t really debate the issue … I doubt there would be any motivation like that. We don’t make arrested based on party affiliation.”

Asked for comment in response to the Captain Zamora’s remarks, Mike Siegel told me: “I heard it. Jacob heard it. I’m only left to wonder whether if he’d said Republican things would have turned out differently.”


Oh, well... I'm glad it's not "standard procedure"... just something they do on a case-by-case basis.
   877. Ishmael Posted: October 11, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5764584)
Mothers’ bodies contain cells belonging to their children for the rest of their lives Post-pregnancy, so her body actually contained divine and immortal material permanently. Also anti-Marianism is usually just low key beef with women tbh

The heresy of Eutychianism rears its ugly head again. I thought we'd seen the last of them after the Council of Chalcedon.
   878. perros Posted: October 11, 2018 at 11:44 AM (#5764594)
This references a different attempt than the one that ultimately - allegedly - led him to be chopped up into little pieces.

The crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered an operation to lure Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi back to Saudi Arabia from his home in Virginia and then detain him, according to U.S. intelligence intercepts of Saudi officials discussing the plan.


MbS is a psychopath who makes Saddam and his sons seem like Brett Kavanaugh.
   879. perros Posted: October 11, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5764596)
“I’ve noticed over the course of time that their posture here, certainly they felt very sure of themselves,” Corker said. “They view their status here as something that it isn’t.”


MbS has bragged he has Jared in his pocket.
   880. manchestermets Posted: October 11, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5764597)
Given the huge number of unpleasant actions taken by the House of Saud that US administrations of either party - and indeed, governments of all western democracies - have at best turned a blind eye to, and at worst actively encouraged, what is it about the Khashoggi incident that makes people think it's going to be any kind of turning point? We want the oil, so the House of Saud can do what it wants and I can't see this changing soon. A murdered journalist is just going to be another bit of collateral damage, I'd have thought.
   881. perros Posted: October 11, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5764599)
I've been pretty disgusted with our country lately.


Same here. It's 90% Republicans, but Dems did not acquit themselves well during the Kavanaugh thing.


"I think there is blame on both sides."
   882. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 11, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5764600)
I haven't verified this information, but it's pretty interesting if true: The Democrats Have a Latino Problem:
Hispanic voters were supposed to be the party’s future. It’s not working out that way.

If the Democratic Party is to regain control of Congress or win back the White House, it will need the support of women and minorities. Almost 7 out of 10 women who are registered to vote disapprove of Donald Trump’s performance in office. The black vote will surely favor the Democratic Party as well. Only 10 percent of black voters support Trump. Then, there is the Hispanic vote. It would seem reasonable to assume that after three uninterrupted years of demonizing, ostracizing, and persecuting the country’s Hispanic immigrants, Trump and his nativist enablers would have hell to pay with Latinos at the ballot box, come November and beyond. Trouble is, they might not. Hispanic voters have become a maddening puzzle for the Democratic Party.

2016 was supposed to be the year America’s great demographic “sleeping giant” would finally awake, shaken out of its slumber by Trump’s rhetoric. Some predicted a massive “We have arrived” moment that would include a surge in voter registration and a dramatic increase in turnout at the polls. A “Latino wave,” an overoptimistic colleague told me, would come ashore and prove that Hispanic voters truly held the key to the White House.

[...]

Latinos have not responded in kind. While Trump was enacting his anti-immigrant agenda, Latino voters seemed to have slowly warmed up to the president. In last week’s NPR/PBS/Marist poll, 41 percent of Hispanics approved of Trump’s performance (black Americans? 12 percent). This is no outlier. Another recent poll put Trump’s approval among Latinos at 35 percent. An average of both would put Trump—again, an overtly nativist president—within about 10 points of Barack Obama’s 49 percent approval among Hispanic at roughly the same time in his presidency.
   883. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 11, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5764601)
52% of Latinos disapprove of Trump.

Conservative headline writers ask: “Do Democrats have a Latino problem?”
   884. perros Posted: October 11, 2018 at 11:58 AM (#5764602)
what is it about the Khashoggi incident that makes people think it's going to be any kind of turning point?


Killing a bunch of randoms in Yemen, chopping off the heads of grandmothers in the streets, or executing a Shia cleric are par for the course. The drug cartel like dealing with a US-published journalist with no attempt to camouflage their actions is... not normal.
   885. BrianBrianson Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:02 PM (#5764604)
About a third of Hispanics voted for Trump, and he hasn't really changed on that front. If one bears in mind that Hispanic includes exceedingly white people you'd never realise are Hispanic unless they told you, it's perhaps not all that surprising. I would guess (R)s get 30-35% of Hispanic votes in the midterms, maybe a little less.
   886. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5764605)
Our foreign policy for the last several decades has been basically “We will countenance all sorts of evil from certain countries (eg Israel, Saudi Arabia) if we can get something good out of it.” (Global capitalism operates under the same type of logic.) I’m with 880, I don’t think this will change anything.
   887. BrianBrianson Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:04 PM (#5764606)
U.S. Customs and Border Patrol now says Canadian Pot Workers are fine

So long as they don't interact with the US pot industry. Nominally, if they use Marijuana they're still eligible for a lifetime ban. But all eight-balls are saying it probably won't come to that.
   888. , Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:06 PM (#5764607)
Legal Latino immigrants (both citizens and not) definitely aren't happy about illegal immigration. Many are also conservative Catholics. And, then, Trump bears a lot of similarity to politician in Latin America. It's not surprising he's not as unpopular with Latinos as he is with African-Americans.

But it ain't like he's popular with them, either.
   889. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5764608)
Our foreign policy for the last several decades has been basically “We will countenance all sorts of evil from certain countries (eg Israel, Saudi Arabia) if we can get something good out of it.”


Just several decades? I feel like this was even more clearly true in the post-war era. Or worse. "We will abet all sorts of evil if we can get something good out of it."
   890. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:13 PM (#5764609)
Given the huge number of unpleasant actions taken by the House of Saud that US administrations of either party - and indeed, governments of all western democracies - have at best turned a blind eye to, and at worst actively encouraged, what is it about the Khashoggi incident that makes people think it's going to be any kind of turning point? We want the oil, so the House of Saud can do what it wants and I can't see this changing soon. A murdered journalist is just going to be another bit of collateral damage, I'd have thought.


This is true to a large extent - but it's too complex to be so binary about it.

Juannity and I went 'round and 'round a few times about this circa 2015-2016 - but the point you're missing her is that we have had, now, two turning points in the last 3-4 years.

The Saudi-US relationship - call it whatever distasteful term you want; I won't disagree - most definitely chilled, to a significant degree during the Obama administration and in particular, during the last couple of years. The Iran deal was certainly a big catalyst for it, and the US was still far more active in assisting the Saudis in Yemen than I'd have wanted to see - but there WAS a turning point. Diplomatic discussions had become more tense. Certain elements of the pre-Trump diplomatic dance had gotten sharper. The US had begun throttling back its policy of "our man in Arabia".

Trump did a hard reversal of course on that, a hard and breakneck fast reversal on that -- and this is what it has wrought. Pre-Trump, Saudi Arabia wouldn't have been so quick to undertake a royal family coup in the manner MBS has done. Pre-Trump, Saudi Arabia wouldn't have been so quick to throw around it's weight against not just Yemen, but also Qatar.

The big tell here ought to be that it's not the usual SJW suspects complaining... it's the nominal neocon/hawks who are aghast.

I get that people have a distaste for such 'global/foreign policy chess'. People don't like incrementalism in this context. People want pure and moral motives and actions, everywhere and always. I'm a realist on such things - I don't think the world ever has or ever will work that way. How we deal with our allies, enemies, and none of the above is a complex series of decision points, cost/benefit, and should be within the confines of the principles the US claims matter, even if the US is often imperfect in following them.

Beyond the fact that the Saudis have apparently dismembered a journalist - this guy was not really even a dissident. He was previously an aide to the Saudi US ambassador. He's essentially - to use a crude analogy - a Saudi David Gergen.... a guy that's been both part of the government and a media figure, but generally a well-respected one.

But beyond that....?

Setting aside morality and principle, there's ALSO an element of influence and power.

By not just doing this, but essentially thumbing their nose at the US - the Saudis are playing the US like a fiddle. They're basically telling the US they hold the cards, they can do what they want, and the administration is basically saying "Yes, master".

I realize in the era of Trump - it's pretty futile, maybe even a bit silly, to wistfully remember a world where policy wasn't treated like a WWE Nitro event.

But it should still matter.
   891. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:19 PM (#5764612)

52% of Latinos disapprove of Trump.

Conservative headline writers ask: “Do Democrats have a Latino problem?”
I'm not sure which is more pathetic: (1) that you think that an ad hominem against the author is responsive, or (2) that you just make #### up, or (3) that you just make other #### up.

The headline doesn't "ask" anything; it makes a statement. So that's one of the made up things. The other made up thing is the claim that there is a "conservative headline writer." To be sure, we don't actually know who wrote the headline -- in print journalism, it's the editor rather than the reporter, but who knows in this case?, but since it's Slate, it's not going to be a conservative editor -- but the author of the piece is not a conservative.

And of course your ad hominem argument misses the point entirely. Yes, if only 52% of Latinos disapprove of Trump, that would be a huge blow to Democrats.
   892. DJS Holiday-Related Pun Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5764616)
We've *always* accepted some sorts of evil if we get something good out of it. No Soviets were tried at Nuremberg for their actions in Poland and cooperation with Nazi Germany. The US would have accepted the existing slavery for a time if the South hadn't revolted. Nor did we mind assistance in fighting a monarchy from one that was likely *more* totalitarian than George III's.
   893. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:27 PM (#5764617)
So participating in your government is not a natural right?
Of course not. Voting is something that is derivative of government; no government, no voting.



I still don't get it, Nieps. I don't see why an enthusiastic libertarian would care whether voting was a "natural right" or not. I thought that the government requiring people to do #### was basically loathsome to you all.
The government isn't requiring anyone to do anything. If the government passed a law requiring people to have IDs, then libertarians would object strongly.
   894. perros Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:29 PM (#5764618)
'I don’t think this will change anything'


This is true to a large extent - but it's too complex to be so binary about it.


The non-binary extends abroad, as such actions are up the craw of the Turks, too. And while Trump and Pocket Jared overtilted, there's been a non-binary building up to now. Almost all of Obama's moves second term were from the realization the US no longer holds the global cards to dictate unilaterally.
   895. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:30 PM (#5764619)
We've *always* accepted some sorts of evil if we get something good out of it. No Soviets were tried at Nuremberg for their actions in Poland and cooperation with Nazi Germany. The US would have accepted the existing slavery for a time if the South hadn't revolted. Nor did we mind assistance in fighting a monarchy from one that was likely *more* totalitarian than George III's.


And we've had limits.

There are no binary answers.

We had no interest in aligning - directly or loosely - with the Nazis to smash the Bolsheviks. We had no interest in a separate peace with the Nazis to keep them as a bulwark against the Bolsheviks.

For someone who has no shortage of complaints about Sam's absolutist and violent solutions, don't look now... but you're making a case for the inherent, elegant, and even proper logic of it. Just writ larger.
   896. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:37 PM (#5764621)
The government isn't requiring anyone to do anything. If the government passed a law requiring people to have IDs, then libertarians would object strongly.


Again, I'm asking about feeling here. Vibe. If you liberts hate the gov't requiring IDs period, shouldn't you also be wary of the gov't requiring IDs in order to do something important (or unimportant), even if that something is not strictly speaking a natural right?

I mean, there's no natural right to consume trans fats or big gulps, but you hate those bands, don'tcha? The natural right thing seems like a red herring.
   897. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5764623)
Come on 896, you have to know by now that whatever answer he gives will be reverse-engineered from the result.
   898. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5764626)
I don't know what to expect.
   899. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5764627)
The non-binary extends abroad, as such actions are up the craw of the Turks, too. And while Trump and Pocket Jared overtilted, there's been a non-binary building up to now. Almost all of Obama's moves second term were from the realization the US no longer holds all thr global cards.


Glass half full or half empty - no longer all the cards, but recognizing the cards we have and how/why we should use them.

IOW - it's NOT the US's job to maintain peace and good relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. However, they are both at least nominal allies. We've had our issues - some via policy, some via principles - with both. But - we also still have influence over both.

In short, despite no longer having all the cards - we do still have cards... and we can play those cards for right and proper purposes. Some of those right and proper purposes are even ones that are to our advantage - i.e., it's not good for ANYONE to see deteriorating relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. And with both countries sliding towards even more authoritarian and autocratic regimes, it's no longer even unthinkable - even if unlikely - something spins out of control.

I.e., - one thing we could do, one card we do have? "Turkey, SA - we're all friends here. Let's not play with matches. That's dangerous. Please both put your matches down for the sake of this tinderbox. There might be repercussions for the country that resists putting its matches down".

There is a ton of room between isolated fortress America and America: World Police and arbitrator.
   900. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 11, 2018 at 12:51 PM (#5764631)
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