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Tuesday, September 11, 2018

OTP 2018 September 10: Former executive Neil McMillan reflects on a long career in baseball, politics and mining

Neil McMillan never made it to the big league, but that hasn’t stopped the former politician, financier and mining executive from blaming his success on the time he spent on the pitcher’s mound all those years ago.

“The real difference in my career … has been a function of my attitude, and it starts out as a willingness or a drive to risk failure,” said McMillan, who recently retired from his last job as chairman of the uranium miner Cameco Corp.

Politics was something of a second choice for McMillan, after a physician ended his lifelong dream of flying for the Snowbirds.

After Trudeau-hating voters turfed him out of office — the alternative would have have been to jump ship and run as a Conservative, an idea he wasn’t prepared to indulge — McMillan spent almost two decades working in finance, as a broker.

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:06 AM | 1379 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: canada, off topic, politics

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   201. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 07:42 PM (#5742511)

Did you read the chargers? Yes, it was dark. She went to put her cardkey in the door opener thingy and realized the door was ajar. Pushed the door open and saw a dark shape in a dark hallway.

But how does that make the slightest bit of sense? How often have you been in your own home, stumbling around in the dark, not turning on a light, and leaving the front door open? I can't come up with a single scenario where I would end up in that situation.
Possible scenario, which doesn't make a lot of sense but isn't tinfoil:

She's tired (though note that it's only 10 pm; she's not stumbling in at 2 am) and gets off at the wrong floor, and somehow doesn't realize it. (Some neighbors were quoted as saying that they've made that mistake before, but that they immediately figured it out when they saw the welcome mats being different.) She gets to the apartment, fumbles with the key for a minute but then the door opens because it was ajar¹, and her mind goes to "intruder." So she pulls her gun and pushes the door open. In the meantime, her fumbling at the door alerts the actual resident, so he goes to check. When she pushes the door open, she sees him in the dark and yells at him to get down or show her his hands or something. Since he's in his own apartment, he's naturally confused and doesn't comply. (And of course he's under no obligation to do so.) So she panics -- cops are naturally cowards -- and shoots. Then she goes in, calls 911, and turns on the lights and says, "Oh crap." I mean, there are holes in this, because it can't be protocol for her to just go in rather than calling it in first. And I don't know how even in the dark you don't recognize your own place, not to mention there's a bright red floor mat outside her door.


¹This part is a bit hard to figure out, because there are two directly contradictory stories we've heard. Either the door was a bit ajar and she pushed it open, or it was closed and she was banging on it and yelling "Let me in." If the latter, that's, um, harder to explain. (Maybe she tries her key and it doesn't work, and she's banging on the door and yelling at the stupid door rather than at a person inside. Then the resident opens the door because she's banging? And then she panics and shoots.)
   202. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 11, 2018 at 07:42 PM (#5742512)
177 is out there, but there had been noise complaints made against the deceased.

As far as the mistaken identity thing, I drive a fairly ubiquitous looking car. On more than one occasion have I tried to get into another car of the same model and color. If I haven't realized it's the wrong car before trying to open the door, the first failed attempt to open the door has always resulted in my immediately spotting something inside the car that made me realize it wasn't mine.

At any rate, this will be interesting to watch unfold. That she's already changed her story on key details isn't, as you guys say, a great look.
   203. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 11, 2018 at 07:43 PM (#5742513)
We could use a man like Micah Johnson again.
   204. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 11, 2018 at 07:48 PM (#5742516)
We could use a man like Micah Johnson again.


Did he live in the apartment above the deceased?
   205. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: September 11, 2018 at 07:56 PM (#5742520)
But how does that make the slightest bit of sense? How often have you been in your own home, stumbling around in the dark, not turning on a light, and leaving the front door open? I can't come up with a single scenario where I would end up in that situation.

She wasn't inside. She was at the door, thinking it was her door, noticing it was ajar, and maybe thinking "crap, someone's in my apartment!" It's dark in there, maybe just a nondescript hallway, nothing to differentiate it as not being yours (in the dark). (Accepting the premise that she thinks it's her floor.)

I am not asking how she got to that situation. I am asking how the dead guy got to that situation. Stumbling around his own apartment in the dark with the front door open. People just don't do that. Nothing you said addresses that at all.

I think absolute best case scenario for her, is it pretty much went down as she described, but the light inside the flat was on. She turned it off after the fact for CYA purposes.
   206. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: September 11, 2018 at 07:58 PM (#5742521)
So she pulls her gun and pushes the door open. In the meantime, her fumbling at the door alerts the actual resident, so he goes to check.

So he is like asleep in his own apartment with his front door left open? Doesn't make sense.
   207. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:01 PM (#5742522)
I know someone who tried to enter the wrong house once. He was very, very, very, very, very drunk.
When that drunk, people sometimes even get into the wrong bed without realizing it, before they are politely told to leave. I mean, I guess I've heard of that happening, anyway (ahem).
   208. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:18 PM (#5742527)

So he is like asleep in his own apartment with his front door left open? Doesn't make sense.
It wasn't wide open under anybody's description; it was ajar. He came in after work and closed the door behind him, but didn't give it quite hard enough a push and it didn't latch. That seems reasonably plausible; certainly my stupid kids do it all the time and I have to yell at them.
   209. BDC Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:18 PM (#5742528)
A common theme in all the reasonable scenarios re: Jean's death here (omitting Davo's fever dream) is that whatever happened, it wasn't the typical killing by a cop. It was not a duty situation, it was not even a quasi-duty situation where an off-duty cop responds to a disturbance. It was, tragically, somebody carrying (fully licensed) who spaced out and killed somebody. The circs might be more or less damning, but it's not really a cop issue (though if she gets off easy, then it becomes a cop issue, for sure).

Where I'd differ from David in #201 is in the warrant that cops are naturally cowards and (implicitly) more likely to kill in such a situation than your typical civilian concealed-carrier. In fact, I think the whole case is classically one of those tragedies that can happen more often when more people carry guns.
   210. BDC Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:19 PM (#5742529)
On the lighter note of "can you make such a mistake": I have worked in the same office building for 30 years. I still frequently get off the elevator on the wrong floor. Not that long ago I walked all the way down the wrong floor and tried to unlock a colleague's office, the one two floors directly above mine. And I really am sober during the day, though it may not seem so from the number of errors I type in the baseball threads.
   211. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:21 PM (#5742530)
198 David Nie’Poranh

177 is batshit crazy, of course. She committed murder, but there is zero evidence for that scenario. The neighbors have talked to the press, and not one of them suggested anything about the guy playing loud music, then or any other time.

The failing New York Times disagrees
the officer and Mr. Jean did not know each other but that she lived in a unit below Mr. Jean, who had received noise complaints from a downstairs neighbor.

And on the low ratings CNN his attorney elaborated:
“The only connection we have been able to make is that she was his immediate downstairs neighbor,” Meritt said. “And there were noise complaints from the immediate downstairs neighbors about whoever was upstairs, and that would have been Botham. In fact, there were noise complaints that very day about upstairs activity in Botham’s apartment. Botham received a phone call about noise coming from his apartment from the downstairs neighbor.”


And a bit more to the....sad? Fort Worth Star-Telegram:
Merritt said that two witnesses, who are sisters and residents of the apartment complex, gave statements that contradict the affidavit.

“One happened to be in a quiet room reading a book so she was in the best position to hear things,” Merritt said. “She heard pounding at the door. The other one (witness) was in the living room (of her own apartment) watching TV. She also heard the same pounding at the door.”

He said the key witness, who was reading the book, heard shouting.

“She heard, ‘Let me in!’ followed by ‘Let me in!’ in an elevated tone and then she heard more pounding at the door,” Merritt said.

But they’re probably all lying.
   212. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:23 PM (#5742532)
It wasn't wide open under anybody's description; it was ajar. He came in after work and closed the door behind him, but didn't give it quite hard enough a push and it didn't latch. That seems reasonably plausible; certainly my stupid kids do it all the time and I have to yell at them.


What about 192 and the video in 196?
   213. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:35 PM (#5742535)
It wasn't wide open under anybody's description; it was ajar. He came in after work and closed the door behind him, but didn't give it quite hard enough a push and it didn't latch. That seems reasonably plausible; certainly my stupid kids do it all the time and I have to yell at them.


The door was locked, they are designed to auto close and lock. Nice kids tho.

So his apt was above hers? I have a hard time believing that after living in a place for awhile you'd make the mistake ABOVE your apt rather than below. Like you don't realize you just walked up an extra flight? Rather than just one less? You are conditioned to walk up two flights for months and then one night you just keep walking and go up another flight?

Seems odd.
   214. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:44 PM (#5742541)
Where I'd differ from David in #201 is in the warrant that cops are naturally cowards and (implicitly) more likely to kill in such a situation than your typical civilian concealed-carrier. In fact, I think the whole case is classically one of those tragedies that can happen more often when more people carry guns.
I don't know that cops are naturally any more cowardly than anyone else, but they're trained to be cowards. They're not trained to think, "What's the most likely scenario here?" Rather, they're trained to assume that people are gunning for them, and to think of the worst case possibilities, and to preempt them. Any confrontation could turn deadly, and they have to be ready for that and make sure that if someone's hurt, it's not them. Worse, they're trained (de facto if not de jure) that they can get away with just about anything and that there will virtually never be repercussions if they're too trigger happy.

Civilian concealed-carriers, OTOH, know that if they randomly shoot someone who poses no reasonable threat, they will at the very least be prosecuted if not convicted.
   215. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:51 PM (#5742546)
So she murdered the guy on Friday night. Then she got to spend the weekend at home with her family, to get time to decompress and contact her attorney, arrange for bail, talk with her friends on the force to get her story straight, etc.

Finally on Sunday night she gets arrested and processed. In a different county’s jail. The booking process takes an hour and afterwards the deputy lets her out a back entrance to avoid the media.

This is how they treat a murder suspect!!!

This Blue Line bullshit is, more than anything else, the reason people despise cops so much. They see the way a cop gets treated after committing a murder, and compare it to the way they were treated after, like, a DUI, and they are rightfully infuriated.
   216. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:53 PM (#5742548)

What about 192 and the video in 196?
What about the video? It doesn't prove anything; that one door closed one time in one video does not mean all doors in the building always close every time. Maybe his door sticks. Maybe there was something on the ground that kept it from closing all the way. Whatever. I don't have any idea whether the door was ajar -- as I mentioned in my prior post, there's also witness statements that she was pounding on the door to be let in. I'm just saying that I don't find it implausible that the door could've been ajar.

Obviously some of us are interested in the issue because we want to piece together what happened in a bizarre scenario, but ultimately it doesn't matter for the purpose of whether she's guilty. Whether the door was ajar and she pushed it open, or whether he opened it, doesn't change what she did.
   217. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:55 PM (#5742550)
We'll likely never know what actually happened. What we already know is that the cops from her precinct are strongly spinning the "facts" of their "investigation" into he man's murder in order to protect their own. As cops always do. It's a universal tendency of LEOs to circle up and protect their "brothers in blue." This is why every argument of "not all cops" is fundamentally bullshit. All cops aren't evil, bigoted racists and murderers. But damned near all of them cover up for those that are, regularly, and with willful intent.
   218. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:56 PM (#5742553)

This Blue Line bullshit is, more than anything else, the reason people despise cops so much. They see the way a cop gets treated after committing a murder, and compare it to the way they were treated after, like, a DUI, and they are rightfully infuriated.
Davo is projecting here. Maybe in the RCPUSA circles in which he travels, people despise cops; most Americans worship cops. They don't get infuriated at all; they're the ones who typically let the cops off the hook on the rare occasions when prosecutors actually do try to hold cops accountable.
   219. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 11, 2018 at 09:08 PM (#5742562)
Thin Blue Line #### is the main reason why the people who do despise cops so much do in fact despise them.

You skipped 211 I take it, the one showing everything you’re claiming is bullshit? Pity.
   220. PreservedFish Posted: September 11, 2018 at 09:14 PM (#5742571)
Davo obviously implied that this bullshit is the reason that "some" people despise cops so much. Come on.
   221. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 09:25 PM (#5742579)
So his apt was above hers? I have a hard time believing that after living in a place for awhile you'd make the mistake ABOVE your apt rather than below. Like you don't realize you just walked up an extra flight? Rather than just one less? You are conditioned to walk up two flights for months and then one night you just keep walking and go up another flight?
First, she had only lived there a short while. Second, she didn't walk up at all; she parked on that floor. Allegedly.
   222. Srul Itza Posted: September 11, 2018 at 09:32 PM (#5742585)
So his apt was above hers? I have a hard time believing that after living in a place for awhile you'd make the mistake ABOVE your apt rather than below. Like you don't realize you just walked up an extra flight? Rather than just one less? You are conditioned to walk up two flights for months and then one night you just keep walking and go up another flight?



She supposedly parked one floor too high, and that is how she ended up on the wrong floor.

Supposedly.
   223. Srul Itza Posted: September 11, 2018 at 09:38 PM (#5742592)
most Americans worship cops


Since 9/11, it has become more of a thing.

Those Americans who worship cops, though, are the ones who have never had to actually deal with one.

Most everyone who has had an interaction with the cops ends up with a less-than-worshipful attitude.
   224. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 11, 2018 at 09:45 PM (#5742596)
California Man Tries To Stab Republican Congressional Candidate:
A Castro Valley man shouting profanities about President Trump attacked a Republican congressional candidate who was working an election booth at a town festival, threatening him and trying to stab him with a switchblade, authorities and the candidate said Tuesday.

Farzad Vincent Fazeli, 35, was jailed after the alleged Sunday attack on Rudy Peters at the Castro Valley Fall Festival. Alameda County prosecutors charged Fazeli on Tuesday with a felony count of making criminal threats and misdemeanor counts of exhibiting a deadly weapon and possessing a switchblade.

"Castro" Valley, you say?
   225. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 09:48 PM (#5742599)

Most everyone who has had an interaction with the cops ends up with a less-than-worshipful attitude.
A bunch of people on twitter have noted how law & order conservatives have suddenly come to be critics of the criminal justice system now that Trump and his cronies are caught up in it. They're suddenly shocked about the lenient standard for obtaining a warrant, how informants are used, etc. And about how law enforcement interrogates people. Today Chris Collins (the insider trading congressman) complained that it doesn't work the way it does on TV; when they came to his house to talk to him, they didn't read him his rights or the like. (Putting cuffs on someone and saying, "Mr. Jones, you're under arrest for the murder of John Smith; you have the right to remain silent, you have the right to an attorney..." is done purely for dramatic effect on screen.)
   226. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 09:51 PM (#5742601)

You skipped 211 I take it, the one showing everything you’re claiming is bullshit? Pity.
The only source for these alleged noise complaints is from the lawyer for the dead guy's family, and I'm not sure how he'd know. No neighbor or landlord or police source has so much as mentioned it. And the lawyer for the dead guy's family claims that the noise complaint was made earlier that day, which doesn't make any sense since both Jean and Guyger would've been at work.
   227. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:12 PM (#5742619)
Posted for the somewhat unusual headline - McConnell Screws Dems Ahead Of Election With October Session:
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is planning to keep the chamber in session for a significant portion of October if not four entire weeks, costing Democrats key campaign trail days and allowing the Senate to continue its work into the fall, according to five Republican officials. The Kentucky Republican wants to keep cranking through as many lifetime judicial nominations and executive nominations as he can with his majority in the balance and the GOP still with the unilateral ability to confirm President Donald Trump’s picks.
. . .
“We’re going to clear the deck of all the circuit judges,” McConnell told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt last week.
. . .
Democrats also could cut a deal with Republicans to confirm some less controversial executive branch nominees and judges and win a longer fall break, allowing their incumbents more time on the campaign trail. But when Democrats agreed to a confirmation deal of eight district court judges in August to gain back a few days of recess, liberals like Demand Justice executive director Brian Fallon called the move “pathetic.”

That seems a bit more ambitious than my prediction in #180, but there is a certain amount of posturing in what both party leaders say about many scheduling matters. Plenty of room for compromise on nominees who will eventually be confirmed whatever the scenario, if folks are so inclined.
   228. Lassus Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:15 PM (#5742632)
"Castro" Valley, you say?

I can't imagine you have some kind of worthwhile point, but Castro Valley is named after Don Guillermo Castro, who was a soldier in the Mexican army and a rancher.

   229. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:29 PM (#5742650)
Humorless Lassus once again objects to an obvious tongue-in-cheek comment.
   230. tshipman Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:34 PM (#5742652)
Humorless Lassus once again objects to an obvious tongue-in-cheek comment.


I mean, your joke was dumb and unfunny.

Like if, for example, someone were to refer to you as the Yankee Crapper.

It wouldn't be funny, because Yankee Crapper is just an immature play on your name and not really related to anything.
   231. zenbitz Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:37 PM (#5742655)
Even taking her story at face value, you carry a gun and shoot someone accidentidentally - you need to go to jail for a long time. Oh, and lose your cop job. The NRA should be all over this - what ever happened to personal responsibility and firearms trainings.

I am not a gun control advocate. But if you want to carry, you have to carry the responsibility of toting around a deadly weapon. I don't drive a motorcycle because I don't trust myself to pay attention on the road well enough to stay alive. I don't even have a gun because I don't want anyone to get accidentally shot by it.

There should be zero tolerance of this crap.

EDIT: If her story has holes in it (shown in court, not debated via BBTF or twitter) she should face murder 2 or something. And they should fire all the cops that backed her up and charge them with obstruction of justice.

Also, I like rainbow unicorns and ponies.
   232. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:54 PM (#5742673)

I know someone who tried to enter the wrong house once. He was very, very, very, very, very drunk


You're friends with Ryen Russillo?
   233. Howie Menckel Posted: September 11, 2018 at 11:00 PM (#5742680)
the 9-11 jumpers
the closer we are to this 9-11 issue, the more I'd recommend you avoid it.

but Esquire did a great service in explaining how a subset of any of us might react to impossible choices. this is what happened, unfiltered.

it's tough sledding:

"The photographer is no stranger to history; he knows it is something that happens later. In the actual moment history is made, it is usually made in terror and confusion, and so it is up to people like him — paid witnesses — to have the presence of mind to attend to its manufacture. The photographer has that presence of mind and has had it since he was a young man. When he was twenty-one years old, he was standing right behind Bobby Kennedy when Bobby Kennedy was shot in the head. His jacket was spattered with Kennedy's blood, but he jumped on a table and shot pictures of Kennedy's open and ebbing eyes, and then of Ethel Kennedy crouching over her husband and begging photographers — begging him — not to take pictures.

Richard Drew has never done that. Although he has preserved the jacket patterned with Kennedy's blood, he has never not taken a picture, never averted his eye. He works for the Associated Press. He is a journalist. It is not up to him to reject the images that fill his frame, because one never knows when history is made until one makes it. It is not even up to him to distinguish if a body is alive or dead, because the camera makes no such distinctions, and he is in the business of shooting bodies, as all photographers are, unless they are Ansel Adams. Indeed, he was shooting bodies on the morning of September 11, 2001.........

"People on the ground were gasping because people in the building were jumping. He started shooting pictures through a 200mm lens. He was standing between a cop and an emergency technician, and each time one of them cried, "There goes another," his camera found a falling body and followed it down for a nine- or twelve-shot sequence. He shot ten or fifteen of them before he heard the rumbling of the South Tower and witnessed, through the winnowing exclusivity of his lens, its collapse."

it's still pretty raw in these parts
   234. Lassus Posted: September 11, 2018 at 11:32 PM (#5742704)
My only response from living in Manhattan on September 11, 2001 is that the event was the event, and the aftermath gave me a better appreciation for the literal definition of "surreal".
   235. Lassus Posted: September 11, 2018 at 11:34 PM (#5742706)
Humorless Lassus once again objects to an obvious tongue-in-cheek comment.

It didn't make sense as a tongue-in-cheek comment. WTF were you even referring to?
   236. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 11:39 PM (#5742712)
177 is batshit crazy, of course. She committed murder, but there is zero evidence for that scenario.


I assume you don't mean murder of the premeditated variety. I can't figure out what in the hell happened but the least plausible scenario to me is that she intentionally went into his apartment to murder him. (Unless there was some prior relationship we're not aware of.)

But sure it could well have been murder in that she mistakenly went into the apartment and then killed him without a valid argument for self-defense.

But I can see a valid argument for self-defense. She mistakenly enters his apartment thinking it's hers. She then sees him in there moving around. She fails to realize -- somewhat implausibly but maybe it all happened so fast -- that this is not her apartment. *HE* knows that it *IS* his apartment and he makes some sort of move towards her, likely non-threateningly, and/or says something to her. She then honestly and reasonably believes he's an intruder in her own home -- or maybe she does realize she's in his home but still she's fearful of the move he's making towards her -- and Texas being a SYG she has no duty to retreat (even if she could do so safely) and so she uses deadly force, believing she's in imminent danger of serious bodily harm or death.

   237. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 11, 2018 at 11:40 PM (#5742713)
Look, an idiot! (Wayback Edition!)


“Why should my son go to Montenegro to defend it from attack?” Fox host Tucker Carlson asked.

Trump responded: “I understand what you’re saying. I’ve asked the same question.”

“Montenegro is a tiny country with very strong people ... They’re very aggressive people. They may get aggressive, and congratulations, you’re in world war three,” the US president added.


1) That's not how article 5 works
2) What evidence does Trump have that Montenegrans are "very aggressive"?
3) What could a country of 630,000 people, with a military of < 2,000 possibly do to incite WWIII?
   238. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 11, 2018 at 11:43 PM (#5742714)
A bunch of people on twitter have noted how law & order conservatives have suddenly come to be critics of the criminal justice system now that Trump and his cronies are caught up in it.


The roles are reversed for both right and left. Now all of a sudden liberals who have forever been skeptical of law enforcement are worshiping them, defending them to the ground, and swallowing whole every action made by them.
   239. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 12, 2018 at 12:01 AM (#5742717)
231: The NRA did chime in. They suggested the guy might still be alive if he had been a licensed gun owner.
   240. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: September 12, 2018 at 12:06 AM (#5742719)
Now all of a sudden liberals who have forever been skeptical of law enforcement are worshiping them, defending them to the ground, and swallowing whole every action made by them.

Big brain guy has logged on to dump some bullshit on the great pages of the think factory. Ray is lying. Again. Ray is a liar.
   241. Shredder Posted: September 12, 2018 at 12:21 AM (#5742721)
231: The NRA did chime in. They suggested the guy might still be alive if he had been a licensed gun owner.
Right, the black guy who killed the cop in Texas would definitely be thanking his lucky stars.
   242. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 12, 2018 at 12:24 AM (#5742724)
Right, the black guy who killed the cop in Texas would definitely be thanking his lucky stars.

And would not have been arrested that night and been bailed out the day he was arrested.
   243. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 12, 2018 at 12:47 AM (#5742729)
Srul, #88:
I saw an ad in my morning paper for a 9/11 Sale.

There are no words.

Nothing will top this.




Quoted in #125:
@scottadamssays:
President Trump will be the last human leader the...

Proposition that Trump is human not backed by evidence.
   244. zenbitz Posted: September 12, 2018 at 12:48 AM (#5742730)
Or he might have died with his gun in his hand and there would just be another hole in the plaster. Or they might both be dead. Or some 3rd person might be dead.
   245. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 12, 2018 at 03:13 AM (#5742735)
Stay safe, North Carolina!

The Week: Trump apparently moved $10 million from FEMA to ICE right before hurricane season

Based on documents from Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), the Department of Homeland Security transferred $9.8 million from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) over the summer, probably to support the increased costs of President Trump's "zero tolerance" border policy, including the separation of migrant children from their parents.

DHS spokesman Tyler Houlton tweeted that "under no circumstances was any disaster relief funding transferred from @fema to immigration enforcement efforts," adding that "the money in question — transferred to ICE from FEMA's routine operating expenses — could not have been used for hurricane response due to appropriation limitations." The department did not dispute the authenticity of the documents, however, and Merkley and MSNBC's Rachel Maddow pointed out that the money does appear to have been moved from FEMA disaster response and recovery accounts to ICE.

Merkley, who sits on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said he believes the money was transferred around June, the start of what has turned out to be a very active hurricane season. Transferring the funds is legal, he said, but the White House would have to tell Congress — and with an amount this big, it would also probably have to notify Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) or the chairman of the homeland security subcommittee.


USA Today:

Merkley told USA TODAY that after the devastation of last year's storms, including hurricanes Maria, Harvey and Irma, FEMA should have the funds it needs to be prepared for another disastrous hurricane season. "It's almost guaranteed to happen again, so this is just incredibly irresponsible," Merkley said.

The budgeting document, titled "Department of Homeland Security FY 2018 transfer and reprogramming notifications," lists $9,755,303 taken from FEMA's budget, about .9 percent of the agency's listed overall budget, and given to support ICE.

Money was also taken from other agencies, including millions from theTransportation Security Administration and the U.S. Coast Guard, to help ICE, the document states. The document lists the additional money was taken to help ICE detain immigrants along the southern border, fund beds in detention centers and remove undocumented immigrants from the country.

........While it's not uncommon for agencies to move money around, FEMA's budget was decimated last year due to the barrage of storms and fires that affected the nation and the agency was criticized heavily for its handling of the disaster in Puerto Rico.
   246. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 04:29 AM (#5742736)
I assume you don't mean murder of the premeditated variety. I can't figure out what in the hell happened but the least plausible scenario to me is that she intentionally went into his apartment to murder him. (Unless there was some prior relationship we're not aware of.)
There is no "murder of the premeditated variety," in Texas. There's either intentional or not. (A heat-of-passion type situation makes it second degree murder rather than first, but it's still murder.) The charge of manslaughter for which she has been arrested does not fit the facts; that requires someone recklessly cause someone's death, and there's no dispute AFAIK that she intentionally shot him.

and Texas being a SYG she has no duty to retreat
That is incorrect. SYG laws require that one be lawfully present in a given location. Needless to say, you can't break into someone's home and then say, "I had no duty to retreat when the homeowner attacked me."

I assume she will try to claim self-defense; whether that would be successful would turn on whether she could convince a jury that she reasonably believed he was an intruder. But it's not clear that she's even entitled to raise the claim because that defense is not available if the defendant provoked the putative attacker. I am not, however, an expert on how Texas applies its laws in this context, so I will wait for a Texas CDL to weigh in. She might instead argue "mistake of fact," which is also a defense -- but that again requires that the mistake be reasonable.
   247. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 12, 2018 at 05:05 AM (#5742738)
The Onion: Defiant Dallas Police Officer Claims Anyone Could Have Mistaken Black Man’s Apartment For Gun
   248. Lassus Posted: September 12, 2018 at 05:39 AM (#5742740)
Now all of a sudden liberals who have forever been skeptical of law enforcement are worshiping them, defending them to the ground, and swallowing whole every action made by them.

This is more stupider than usual.
   249. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 05:59 AM (#5742746)
The Week: Trump apparently moved $10 million from FEMA to ICE right before hurricane season


Heck of a job, fatass.
   250. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:00 AM (#5742747)
Now all of a sudden liberals who have forever been skeptical of law enforcement are worshiping them, defending them to the ground, and swallowing whole every action made by them.

This is more stupider than usual.


I don’t know if you heard, but this is the same guy who said global warming was a hoax. He’s completely incapable of evaluating evidence objectively.
   251. Ernie Harwell Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:05 AM (#5742748)
But I can see a valid argument for self-defense. She mistakenly enters his apartment thinking it's hers. She then sees him in there moving around. She fails to realize -- somewhat implausibly but maybe it all happened so fast -- that this is not her apartment. *HE* knows that it *IS* his apartment and he makes some sort of move towards her, likely non-threateningly, and/or says something to her. She then honestly and reasonably believes he's an intruder in her own home -- or maybe she does realize she's in his home but still she's fearful of the move he's making towards her -- and Texas being a SYG she has no duty to retreat (even if she could do so safely) and so she uses deadly force, believing she's in imminent danger of serious bodily harm or death.


I mean, doesn’t that defense get thrown out the window because she was, you know, in the victim’s apartment?! In a SYG state, doesn’t being on someone else’s property effectively make you the aggressor?
   252. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:11 AM (#5742749)
Hey, a properly shameless lawyer can make up any scenario they want. OJ Simpson wasn’t a murderer, he was actually the victim of a massive conspiracy by white devils to frame him for murder.
   253. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:32 AM (#5742750)
Today is 9/12. And as we wrap up another year's trip down Felony Lane to revisit Donald Trump's putrid history of megalomoronic 9/11 performances, it's too easy to overlook one of the garbageman's worst.

The despicable "spastic reporter impression" image only exists because Trump was imitating a disabled reporter who'd fact-checked Trump in public. In an attempt to find corroboration for his repeated lie about the nonexistent "thousands and thousands" of gleeful New Jersey Muslims cheering the towers' collapse, Trump distorted the reporter's 2001 news coverage. Intolerably, the reporter said that Trump was wrong about the article.

What else could a serious leader do to demonstrate their patriotic 9/11 bona fides, other than act like one of those inflatable tubenoodle people you see wiggling outside of car dealerships?
   254. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:34 AM (#5742751)
Humorless Lassus once again objects to an obvious tongue-in-cheek comment.

It didn't make sense as a tongue-in-cheek comment. WTF were you even referring to?

That all lefties are Fidel Castro level communists. Duh.

This is why there are no funny right-wing comedians. And why someone from that side of the spectrum should never call anyone else 'humorless.'
   255. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:50 AM (#5742752)
The despicable "spastic reporter impression" image only exists because Trump was imitating a disabled reporter who'd fact-checked Trump in public. In an attempt to find corroboration for his repeated lie about the nonexistent "thousands and thousands" of gleeful New Jersey Muslims cheering the towers' collapse, Trump distorted the reporter's 2001 news coverage. Intolerably, the reporter said that Trump was wrong about the article.


Lying and being an aggressive jerk when caught lying are probably the two traits Trumpholsters admire most in their fat, bald, lazy pudding of a hero. We see it confirmed time and time again.

Oh, if only you hippies had been mature enough to ignore the lies rather than point out they were lies, you could have saved America from the shame of a Trump. I hope you’ve learned how dangerous it is to the very fabric of our nation when you can’t ignore a few harmless lies from a Republican. We’ll see.
   256. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:50 AM (#5742753)
Redneck, #250:
I don’t know if you heard, but this is the same guy who said global warming was a hoax.

Rush Limbaugh yesterday:
“This is made to order for the climate change, global warming crowd. This is, they tell us, one of the most powerful hurricanes this far north, ever. And, of course, why is that? Well, that would be sea surface temperature. And why is that warmer than-- there you go, climate change. It’s being accepted as a non-argumentative fact.

I don’t care what meteorologist you watch or read, website, or what have you. All of this seems to be acknowledged fact. So we’re keeping an eye on that. Hurricanes and hurricane forecasting is like much else that the left has gotten its hands on, and they politicize these things. For those of you asking, ‘What’s the politics of a hurricane?’ climate change is the politics of a hurricane. The forecast, and the destruction potential doom and gloom, is all to heighten the belief in climate change.”
Last year, Limbaugh said the same kind of things about Hurricane Irma being "politicized" by the left: "There is a desire to advance this climate change agenda, and hurricanes are one of the fastest and best ways to do it." Two days after saying that, he flew away to safety in a private plane, ahead of the hurricane's landfall near his home. 92 Americans died because of Irma, which caused over $50 billion in damage.
   257. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:53 AM (#5742755)
Is the license requirement for hairdressers really broadly popular?

I guess I don't mean popular in the sense that there's a constituency for it. But in a managerial sense, yes. The left sees it as a way of protecting both consumers and workers. The right sees it as a field for entrepreneurship (those for-profit schools), and as a source of fee income, their favorite way of funding government.
While liberals are ideologically in favor of moar government, always, there is no ideological support for occupational licensing on the right. There's plenty of Republican political support for it -- as well as Democratic support for it, as there is for all rent seeking.
   258. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:53 AM (#5742756)
This is why there are no funny right-wing comedians. And why someone from that side of the spectrum should never call anyone else 'humorless


“Spectrum”? Did you just imply all conservatives are autistic?

You DID didn’t you? Oh for shame Banana Pants, for shame. Your bigotry has no place in civiIzed discourse. Such hateful and insulting rhetoric is the reason why this site is dying.
   259. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 07:01 AM (#5742757)
Rush Limbaugh yesterday:


Perhaps one of y’all might know this - was Limbaugh quick to hop on the Trumptruck because he saw the fat, ignorant blowhard as a kindred spirit, or was he more of a Nevertrump sort who saw Trump as a fat, ignorant blowhard but in a bad way?
   260. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 07:05 AM (#5742758)
President Dumbass’s official statement on 9/11

Seriously.

Quoting cartoonist “Tom Tomorrow”, “Classic "book report by kid who didn't read the book" mode”
   261. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 07:12 AM (#5742759)
I wrote: "While liberals are ideologically in favor of moar government, always, "

Personally if I'm going to a hairdresser or barber I'd like to know they have a license
See what I mean?
   262. Tom T Posted: September 12, 2018 at 07:29 AM (#5742761)
If someone is going to be cupping me, leeching me, or otherwise bleeding me...yes, I *definitely* want to know they are certified by somebody!
   263. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 07:45 AM (#5742763)
Can’t you just quiz them on their knowledge base to see if they’re competent to your standards?
   264. McCoy Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:08 AM (#5742766)
Re 237. I think you're forgetting how WWI started.
   265. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:08 AM (#5742767)
A new day, but the same stuff ... ‘Shipwreck’: GOP grows fearful about losing Senate as candidates struggle, Trump support tumbles

Republicans have grown increasingly worried about losing control of the Senate, as President Trump’s approval rating tumbles and Democrats gain steam in key battleground races.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Tuesday sounded some of the most doubtful notes of Trump’s presidency that Republicans will keep the upper chamber of Congress, telling reporters, “I hope when the smoke clears, we’ll still have a majority.”

His comments came as Republican strategists and officials fretted over a fresh round of private polling on the Senate races, while public polls registered further erosion in Americans’ approval of Trump. “Shipwreck” was how one leading strategist described the situation, adding an expletive to underscore the severity of the party’s problems.


More at the link, including some fun info regarding the least likable Senator (high bar, but one he clears easily) and his upcoming reelection bid.
   266. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:15 AM (#5742768)
Quoting cartoonist “Tom Tomorrow”, “Classic "book report by kid who didn't read the book" mode”
I keep telling you, bats aren't bugs! But this particular video that you cited doesn't really fit that pattern; it's not like he said that a hurricane was really wet. Rather, it fits the pattern more of a psychopath who can't even feign empathy.
   267. manchestermets Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:21 AM (#5742769)
Re 237. I think you're forgetting how WWI started.


While that's a reasonable response to 237, I'd be willing to bet you every penny I could scrape together that Trump's line of thinking doesn't match your line of thinking. I'd love to see someone ask him "How did WWI start?" on camera.
   268. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:25 AM (#5742770)
RCP's polling aggregates for the competitive Senate races:

Democrats currently lead in Michigan (17.3%); Ohio (15.4%); Pennsylvania (14.8%); Minnesota (8.4%); West Virginia (8.4%); New Jersey (8.3%); Wisconsin (8.0%); Indiana (5.7%); Montana (5.5%), Arizona (3.6%); Nevada (1.3%) and Tennessee (1.3%).

Republicans lead in Texas (3.2%), Florida (1.7%); Missouri (0.6%) and North Dakota (0.5%).

That's 12 races to 4, with all four of the GOP leads being among the smallest. If everything were to hold up as is, that would be a bitter +1 result for the GOP.

2018 was the kind of soft, welcoming, fecund Senate map our great-grandchildren may never live to see again. At least half of the closest races should have been off the board back in January.

It also assumes abiding faith in the strength of older polls and the absence of momentum. For example, Florida's 1.7% is a bit of a holdover, since Rick Scott's small lead is now down to 0% in each of the two latest polls. Same thing in Missouri. And we all know about Limpin' Ted Cruz's tsuris.
   269. manchestermets Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:25 AM (#5742771)
Sigh. The only thing that showed is a typical lack of courage on Clinton's part
and that the Bush administration had a more than normal amount of duplicity
. It said less than nothing about the relative hawkishness of Clinton vis-à-vis ... well anyone.


Or that Clinton had more than a normal amount of gullibility. In the campaign for the 2005 UK general election, the Conservatives who'd all voted in favour of UK participation were defending their support on the grounds that they'd been misled by Tony Blair, but that just seemed strange to me because a) It was obvious to pretty much all non-politicians that the rationale for the invasion was garbage and b) You're standing here in an election campaign saying "Vote for me, it'll be easy for foreign leaders to pull the wool over my eyes!"?
   270. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:28 AM (#5742772)
This is why there are no funny right-wing comedians.

There are a few, P.J. O'Rourke for one. And if you give me a week I might think of one or two more.

   271. BDC Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:30 AM (#5742774)
2) What evidence does Trump have that Montenegrans are "very aggressive"?


The only Montenegran I ever knew ended up being convicted of attempted murder, so based on the BDC Sample Technique, I would say aggressive AF.
   272. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:37 AM (#5742776)
Democrats currently lead in Michigan (17.3%); Ohio (15.4%); Pennsylvania (14.8%); Minnesota (8.4%); West Virginia (8.4%); New Jersey (8.3%); Wisconsin (8.0%); Indiana (5.7%); Montana (5.5%), Arizona (3.6%); Nevada (1.3%) and Tennessee (1.3%).


There are two Senate elections in MN this cycle. Amy Klobuchar feels ignored ...

RCP Average: Klobuchar +22.0


OK, maybe not.
   273. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:39 AM (#5742778)
What evidence does Trump have that Montenegrans are "very aggressive"?

I just assumed that Trump thought that Montenegro was populated by Negroes.
   274. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:40 AM (#5742779)
This is why there are no funny right-wing comedians.


Maybe not partisan right-wing, but conservative yes. Norm Macdonald and Bill Burr are the kinds of A+ comics you draft in the first round. Nick DiPaolo is funny, and Adam Carolla is pretty funny too.

But the wildly overrated P.J. O'Rourke being an eternal go-to guy in this discussion shows how rough the depth imbalance is for the Comedy Red Team. Has O'Rourke done anything of note in 25 years?
   275. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:41 AM (#5742780)
This is the week all the pundits squint, look back at their spreadsheets and realize ... Surprisingly, the Senate Is Now in Play

Months ago, I acknowledged a long-shot Democratic opportunity in Tennessee, largely because of the reputation of their high-quality nominee, former Gov. Phil Bredesen. But I didn’t take Bredesen’s chances against the Republican nominee, Rep. Marsha Blackburn, seriously given the state’s partisan bent and Trump’s strong showing there two years ago.

I’m still skeptical about Bredesen’s prospects, but recent polls show that the race is for real. I can no longer simply dismiss his chances.

Unlike some, I still have trouble imagining Rep. Beto O’Rourke upsetting Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. But Trump’s problems in some suburban areas of Texas in 2016 and his upcoming trip to the state to boost Cruz’s prospects certainly suggest that the Lone Star State should be on the radar. The challenger is still a distinct underdog, of course, but the race deserves some attention.

   276. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:41 AM (#5742781)
Quinnipiac results, hot off the server...

D+14

Last month was D+9.
   277. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:44 AM (#5742782)
Nate Silver passed along that statistic about 54 of 54 incumbent Senators from the non-White House party winning reelection in the last five wave elections. Someone else took a look at midterms, and he went much further back.

Sabato's Crystal Ball:
Geoffrey Skelley looked at all of the Senate midterm elections in the popular election era, which dates back a century and includes 26 midterms from 1914 to 2014. He found that Senate incumbents who did not belong to the president's party have a sterling reelection record: 91% (287 of 314) of non-presidential party incumbents won reelection in midterms.

If anything, out-party incumbents losing in a midterm is becoming less common: In six of the last eight midterms, including the last three (2006, 2010, and 2014), no such incumbent lost reelection. The last three midterms were all conducted under presidents with weak popularity (George W. Bush in 2006, and Barack Obama in 2010 and 2014).

As to the last point, all Donald Trump has to do to fix that is improve his popularity by 13% in the next month.
   278. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:16 AM (#5742792)
What evidence does Trump have that Montenegrans are "very aggressive"?
Forever the view of Montenegrans was that they were this proud warrior hill tribe that fought tooth and nail to keep the Ottomans out, and then fought tooth and nail to eject them. They were in the middle of every Balkan war from the 1683 to 1918. When you think of Montenegro of this period you think of hill clans, warrior princes, warrior bishops. My memories of Montenegro from Rebecca West were of her looking at a lot of paintings of battles and monuments to battles and sites of battles.

What I'm trying to say is that it's not as if there is no evidence that the Montenegrans are a fierce and warlike people. There is a lot of such evidence. Just that it's all very old and based on a pre-1914 worldview. But if you decide that Montenegro is as it was in 1914, and the world is as it was in 1914, then Montenegro starting World War III seems eminently plausible.

Apparently Ferdinand Zvonimir von Habsburg, a 21-year-old race car driver, is the heir to the current Hapsburg pretender. We can expect him to be assassinated by a Montenegran at any moment.

EDIT: Apparently the Montenegrans had the first armed uprising in Nazi-occupied Europe. So they were still a feisty bunch in 1941.
   279. PreservedFish Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:23 AM (#5742794)
This is the week all the pundits squint, look back at their spreadsheets and realize ... Surprisingly, the Senate Is Now in Play


This is a little bit too reminiscent of those "Hillary could win Arizona!!" reports for me.
   280. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:25 AM (#5742795)
EDIT: Apparently the Montenegrans had the first armed uprising in Nazi-occupied Europe. So they were still a feisty bunch in 1941.


How can we talk this much about Montenegro and not mention its greatest fictional favorite son and detective of all time?
   281. PreservedFish Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:30 AM (#5742796)
My memories of Montenegro from Rebecca West


I am a huge fan of travel literature and the massive Black Lamb and Grey Falcon has been intimidating me, daring me, for years. Do you recommend it?
   282. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:35 AM (#5742800)
But the wildly overrated P.J. O'Rourke being an eternal go-to guy in this discussion shows how rough the depth imbalance is for the Comedy Red Team. Has O'Rourke done anything of note in 25 years?

Beats me, but he was great in The National Lampoon, he wrote a sublime sendup of one of those Nation magazine cruise ships,** and he used to buy my posters, so I figured I owed him one.

** Oops, that was 36 years ago
   283. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:37 AM (#5742802)
Marist

D+12

Last result was D+7.
   284. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:41 AM (#5742804)
538.com generic average up to 9.3%.

Saddle up, Rasmussen. You're needed!
   285. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:43 AM (#5742805)
Democrats currently lead in Michigan (17.3%); Ohio (15.4%); Pennsylvania (14.8%); Minnesota (8.4%); West Virginia (8.4%); New Jersey (8.3%); Wisconsin (8.0%); Indiana (5.7%); Montana (5.5%), Arizona (3.6%); Nevada (1.3%) and Tennessee (1.3%).

Republicans lead in Texas (3.2%), Florida (1.7%); Missouri (0.6%) and North Dakota (0.5%).

That's 12 races to 4, with all four of the GOP leads being among the smallest. If everything were to hold up as is, that would be a bitter +1 result for the GOP.


Isn't that a wash? D's flip 3, R's flip 3.
   286. DavidFoss Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:45 AM (#5742807)
This is a little bit too reminiscent of those "Hillary could win Arizona!!" reports for me.

I agree. It's a bit too far out. These negative swings in Trumps approval are understandable given the things that he is constantly doing, but his approval always tends to drift back to ~40% if there is a lull in bad news. I'm just going to watch what is happening in the individual races. The Trump meltdowns which could affect the election would occur around Halloween or so.
   287. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:48 AM (#5742808)
Re: #285-- Yes, you're right. That's one lousier, innit it? How much blacker could this once-in-a-lifetime Senate map get for the GOP? None. None more black. Which is also Donald Trump's 2020 campaign slogan.

(I can't believe a zero-seat pickup, either.)
   288. Greg K Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:49 AM (#5742810)
At times like this I always consult Favell Lee Mortimer's ethnographic study of the European peoples.

But sadly she lets me down. No discussion of Montenegro. Though she describes all the robbers that live in the mountains around Hungary, Greece, and Turkey, so I feel like I might be able to paint a picture.

Certainly her assessment of Americans still rings true:

The Americans are benevolent. They love to do good and among other things they have asylums for the blind, and hospitals for the sick, refuges for the destitute; and they even make their prisoners comfortable - perhaps too comfortable.
   289. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:49 AM (#5742811)
Charlie Cook before Labor Day....

once you get within 100 days or so of the general election, electoral dynamics are pretty much set. In modern history, we’ve never seen a directional change in the last three months of a midterm-election campaign. Waves can stay the same or increase in the closing months, but they don’t reverse direction or dissipate.
   290. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:58 AM (#5742813)
I agree. It's a bit too far out. These negative swings in Trumps approval are understandable given the things that he is constantly doing, but his approval always tends to drift back to ~40% if there is a lull in bad news.


Here is the deal though ... There’s Never Been a President This Unpopular With an Economy This Good

“There’s a huge disconnect,” said Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow and public opinion polling expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank based in Washington. “The economy doesn’t seem to be dominating in a way that it often does in elections.”

That’s a big problem for Republicans as they try to maintain control of Congress. White House Budget Director Mick Mulvaney acknowledged as much last week, telling Republican backers in a private meeting that they needed to get voters to focus on the economy and not on Trump in November, according to the New York Times.


And Trump can't just shut up and disappear for a few months. He just can't. Heck there are reports about how he wants to get out there and hold rallies around he nation. He loves the attention, no he needs it.

GOP President Trump just doesn't wear well, his act is tiring and very stale. People are not going to suddenly warm up to the man in November. And the scandals (plural, many) are not going to go away. The investigations into him and those around him show no sign of wrapping up - certainly not before the election and the rest of the GOP seems to spontaneously generate a wide variety of criminal and Nazi adjacent news items on a regular basis.

Yes this might be the floor. There has to be one somewhere after all. And hey Trump defied the pundits once, maybe he will again. But none of this is (from a partisan perspective) bad news.
   291. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:01 AM (#5742814)
Cook Political Report: House Rating Changes: New Hampshire Primaries Boost Democrats

In the wake of the New Hampshire primary, Republicans will be hard-pressed to pry either of the state's House seats out of the Democratic column. The state's notoriously independent electorate tends to swing hard towards parties riding a wave, and we're moving both of the state's House seats in Democrats' direction. On the opposite coast, Democratic Rep. Jim Costa (CA-16) can't take his reelection for granted.
   292. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:02 AM (#5742815)
He loves the attention, no he needs it.


A Democratic congress is the perfect tonic for him... There are oodles and oodles of committees and investigators just itching to give him the attention he craves.
   293. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:14 AM (#5742821)
173

It's a mistake to assume that delays in figuring out precisely what charge to bring always means that no charges will be brought.


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Bravo, Clapper!

It's be really great if some of the fine folks here would apply that kind of logic to the Mueller investigation instead of bleating NO COLLUSION!NO COLLUSION!
   294. DavidFoss Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:17 AM (#5742822)
But sadly she lets me down. No discussion of Montenegro.

I always thought it was cool that a Slavic country had a Spanish-sounding name. I guess the name comes from a Venetian dialect which is more understandable than Spanish.

I think the current local rivalry is between Serbia & Montenegro. There is not much that separates the two peoples, so there are some who think they should merge. Montenegro has tried to promote their dialect into a new language and to add extra Montenegrin-only characters to the Cyrillic alphabet but it seems a bit forced.

I have no idea why Russia is specifically upset about Montenegro in NATO. A dozen other Warsaw Pact countries joined before they did. The new 'curtain' separating Russia from NATO is far to the east along the eastern borders of the now-NATO Baltics, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romany and Bulgaria.
   295. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:20 AM (#5742824)
A Democratic congress is the perfect tonic for him... There are oodles and oodles of committees and investigators just itching to give him the attention he craves.


Trump's financial records: Do Not Unwrap Until January 3 (*)

*does not apply to Robert Mueller
   296. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:21 AM (#5742825)
On the opposite coast, Democratic Rep. Jim Costa (CA-16) can't take his reelection for granted.


538 gives Costa a 99.7% chance.
   297. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5742827)
I have no idea why Russia is specifically upset about Montenegro in NATO.


Russia had their eyes on the port of Bar as a forward naval base.
   298. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:29 AM (#5742834)
Apparently Ferdinand Zvonimir von Habsburg, a 21-year-old race car driver, is the heir to the current Hapsburg pretender. We can expect him to be assassinated by a Montenegran at any moment.


Do you think they will take him out?
   299. perros Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:35 AM (#5742840)
   300. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5742841)
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