Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

OTP 2018 September 10: Former executive Neil McMillan reflects on a long career in baseball, politics and mining

Neil McMillan never made it to the big league, but that hasn’t stopped the former politician, financier and mining executive from blaming his success on the time he spent on the pitcher’s mound all those years ago.

“The real difference in my career … has been a function of my attitude, and it starts out as a willingness or a drive to risk failure,” said McMillan, who recently retired from his last job as chairman of the uranium miner Cameco Corp.

Politics was something of a second choice for McMillan, after a physician ended his lifelong dream of flying for the Snowbirds.

After Trudeau-hating voters turfed him out of office — the alternative would have have been to jump ship and run as a Conservative, an idea he wasn’t prepared to indulge — McMillan spent almost two decades working in finance, as a broker.

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 11, 2018 at 08:06 AM | 1379 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: canada, off topic, politics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 6 of 14 pages ‹ First  < 4 5 6 7 8 >  Last ›
   501. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:33 PM (#5743300)
flop
   502. OCF Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:44 PM (#5743306)
you could walk all around the property outside the nuke plant and be greeted with pristine upper midwest beaches, forest and water. Outside the coal plant? Trenches filled with toxic dust, tailings ponds the color or bourbon, and a layer of coal dust on your car's hood when you left at the end of the day.

For many reasons, coal-fired electrical generating stations need to be retired. And this is very likely happening, although at the moment it looks like it will take decades to complete. As the existing plants age past their expiration dates, they won't be replaced by new coal plants.

But what about nuclear power? I've long thought that there should be a place for nuclear power (non-greenhouse) moving forward, but my doubts about that that are increasing. I would want to insist on a few things - certainly no more 2nd generation once-through-fuel pressurized water reactors. The conditions I'd want to insist on for anything new: repeated-pass fuel cycles, and with that very little of transuranic elements sent to waste repositories. And designs that could survive full Fukushima conditions without melting down or otherwise damaging themselves. (Full Fukushima conditions = scrammed reactor, isolation from the power grid, and total failure of backup generators.)

My biggest reason for doubting the future of nuclear energy: it's too expensive. Who's going to build any new reactors? In particular, who's going to put in the capital investment? I have a hard time seeing where the money would come from. In the meantime, the other possibilities are looking better than ever, including offshore wind (maybe even far offshore wind?), solar farms in the Sahara exporting power to the north and east, and other similar things. If there are going to be major technological advances, energy storage is a good place to look.

(Fusion power? My best guess is that it will never be practical.)
   503. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:52 PM (#5743310)
Do you play in a regular or periodic poker game? If yes, please list the dates, participants, location/venue, and amounts won/lost.


What a ridiculous and unreasonable question. I've played in a semi-regular weekly home game for at least 15 years. I couldn't possibly begin to answer that question. ~30 games per year for 15 years is about 450 games. I have no earthly idea, except in the vaguest possible terms when, where, who, and how much.
   504. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:54 PM (#5743312)
Fusion power? My best guess is that it will never be practical.


It's only 20 years away.
   505. tshipman Posted: September 12, 2018 at 11:01 PM (#5743320)
If the Dems had anything here, they'd have used it at the hearing, but questioning any Citizen about his attendance at the National Pastime is almost un-American. Maybe Rhode Island is OK with an anti-baseball, anti-gambling & anti-New Jersey Senator, but some have higher standards.

On the more legal questions, most can be easily dismissed by reiterating the prohibition on giving opinions, previews, hints or forecasts on issues that may come before the Court, and avoiding commenting on the political activities of others. Kavanaugh's responses were due today - he may have needed to use rubber stamps for the more repetitive questions - but haven't seen any news reports yet.


Uh, if Kavanaugh is a big enough gambler that he went 60K-110K+ into debt on a judge's salary, that's a serious red flag for a Supreme Court justice.

The "baseball ticket" story is super sketchy--both that he accumulated the debt and carried it for years buying season tickets and that he paid it off so quickly.

These are pretty serious red flags. Including the Kavanaugh quote:
Apologies to all for missing Friday (good excuse), and growing aggressive after blowing still another game of dice (don’t recall),
   506. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: September 12, 2018 at 11:02 PM (#5743322)
My biggest reason for doubting the future of nuclear energy: it's too expensive. Who's going to build any new reactors? In particular, who's going to put in the capital investment? I have a hard time seeing where the money would come from. In the meantime, the other possibilities are looking better than ever, including offshore wind (maybe even far offshore wind?), solar farms in the Sahara exporting power to the north and east, and other similar things. If there are going to be major technological advances, energy storage is a good place to look.


Oh totally, and there's no political will for it in the US. It's a great, relatively clean source of energy but it's also expensive and the future of power (for better and worse) is point production, via solar and what have you. For now, natural gas is fine as baseload. We need to be smart (like not letting methane just vent or be burned off) about harvesting nat gas, but that's something beyond most republicans and many dems as well (who see any FF use as, in the parland of our times -- "problematic").

Energy isn't partisan and neither is climate. The beautiful thing is we have the tools and capability to limit and even reduce C02 production (and other green house gasses like methane) without a significant economic hit, hell, it will probably be a boon for many parts of the country. Someone will invent a spray on solar cell and an affordable battery (the hard part probably long term is the battery imo) and then every house will be its own baseload.
   507. OCF Posted: September 12, 2018 at 11:10 PM (#5743332)
It's only 20 years away.

I don't know how old you are, but I'm not exactly young and I was hearing that when I was a kid. (Of course you already know that and I'm stepping on your joke.)
   508. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: September 12, 2018 at 11:31 PM (#5743346)
What a ridiculous and unreasonable question. I've played in a semi-regular weekly home game for at least 15 years. I couldn't possibly begin to answer that question. 

When you play for a living, you're expected to keep a log of every session you play. However, laziness and irresponsibility are core features of many a pro gambler, so not everyone has the most detailed records.

My accountant told me a story about a client who was being audited. He was expected to bring his logbook to the audit, be he didn't keep any records, so he decided to create some. He shows up at the audit, hands them the book, and the auditor looks at the notebook, only to see a production date printed on it that's more recent than the year of poker that was supposedly documented within. Not sure what happened after that, but I am sure it was unpleasant.

Not really relevant to anything. I just like sharing tales of human stupidity.
   509. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 12, 2018 at 11:32 PM (#5743347)
I don't know how old you are, but I'm not exactly young and I was hearing that when I was a kid. (Of course you already know that and I'm stepping on your joke.)


True dat.
   510. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 12, 2018 at 11:55 PM (#5743352)
Following up on #496, the Senate Judiciary Committee has now posted Judge Kavanaugh's response to the 1,287 written questions, and as might be expected, those who couldn't derail the nomination with in-person cross-examination didn't do any better with written questions. I skimmed as far as Senator Whitehouse's baseball & gambling questions, and didn't see any slips. Preliminary reporting by news outlets that should have enough staff to divvy the task up for more thorough analysis seems to share that assessment. Judge Kavanaugh's response was 263 pages, with his response to the baseball & gambling questions at pages 122-29. No spoilers, other than to indicate that tshipman's silly's speculation in #505 isn't borne out, and Bitter Mouse may be pleased that Kavanugh made short work of the poker question.
Like many Americans, I have occasionally played poker or other games with friends and colleagues. I do not document the details of those casual games.

I doubt any of the Democrats will attempt to justify their votes against Kavanaugh on his failure to fully finger the friends who joined in a rare poker game, or even an outing at Nationals Park, but read the document yourself.

EDIT: Here's the Washington Post article on Kavanaugh's response - their take seems similar to mine.
   511. greenback slays lewks Posted: September 13, 2018 at 12:55 AM (#5743356)
Michigan State University's god-awful response to their rapist doctor has been discussed here in the past, but I haven't seen any discussion of the latest development. This is one side of a lawsuit, which brings an obvious caveat, but nonetheless, holy ####!
A new lawsuit alleges that Michigan State University officials were made aware of a videotaped rape of an underage girl by Dr. Larry Nassar but covered it up, told a coach who reported it to resign, and stripped the victim of a scholarship.

The federal suit, filed in Michigan Monday on behalf of Erika Davis of California and other plaintiffs whose names were not revealed, says Davis was given a pill by Nassar during an exam in the spring of 1992, when she was 17, and raped as a video camera captured the attack.

Davis, a scholarship field hockey player at MSU who was referred to Nassar by her coach, told her coach what happened, and the coach in turn went to Nassar's office, demanded the video, and received it, according to the suit.

But when she complained about the doctor to then-athletic director George Perles, "she was forced to return the video, resign and sign a non-disclosure agreement," the suit claims.

The filing says the coach retained a copy of the video. Perles is now a trustee of MSU but he was not named as an individual defendant.

   512. tshipman Posted: September 13, 2018 at 01:15 AM (#5743357)
Following up on #496, the Senate Judiciary Committee has now posted Judge Kavanaugh's response to the 1,287 written questions, and as might be expected, those who couldn't derail the nomination with in-person cross-examination didn't do any better with written questions. I skimmed as far as Senator Whitehouse's baseball & gambling questions, and didn't see any slips. Preliminary reporting by news outlets that should have enough staff to divvy the task up for more thorough analysis seems to share that assessment. Judge Kavanaugh's response was 263 pages, with his response to the baseball & gambling questions at pages 122-29. No spoilers, other than to indicate that tshipman's silly's speculation in #505 isn't borne out, and Bitter Mouse may be pleased that Kavanugh made short work of the poker question.


We'll see. His answers were alarmingly non-specific. It should not be possible to get 60K in debt buying season tickets for 4 seats, particularly if friends paid you back in a timely manner.

If this statement gets proven to be false, then his nomination will fail:
I have not had gambling debts or participated in “fantasy” leagues.


Also, this is frankly unbelievable:
The game of dice referred to in that email was not a game with monetary stakes.


1. No one plays dice without money besides children.
2. No one who loses at a dice game with no stakes gets so angry they have to apologize later.
   513. OCF Posted: September 13, 2018 at 01:16 AM (#5743359)
About coal-fired power: excerpts from a Wikipedia article about one particularly large (and more technically advanced and cleaner than most) coal-fired generating plant:

Navajo Generating Station is a 2250 megawatt net coal-fired powerplant located on the Navajo Nation, near Page, Arizona United States. … As of 2017 permission to operate as a conventional coal-fired plant is anticipated until 2017-2019, and to December 22, 2044 if extended. However, in 2017, the utility operators of the power station voted to close the facility when the lease expires in 2019.

[Various items about requirements being phased in that the plant reduce its mercury and NOx admissions below its current level]

The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power withdrew from the project in 2016. After the rise of shale gas in the United States, natural gas power prices ($32/MWh) fell under the cost of coal power for NGS ($38/MWh), and NGS production decreased

In 2014, generation fell to 72% of capacity, and to 61% in 2016. …

There’s news from this summer about a potential buyer who would seek to continue to operate the plant, albeit at less than half of its original capacity. Between the plant and the Kayenta coal mine, there are a lot of jobs at stake for the Navajo and Hopi nations. Whether this will or won’t actually happen seems unclear.
   514. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 13, 2018 at 01:50 AM (#5743360)
NRA spokesghoul Dana Loesch explains where the apartment cop murder went wrong:
"This could have been very different if Botham Jean had been, say he was a law abiding gun owner, and he saw somebody coming into his apartment. I mean, there’s no -- I don't think there’s any context that the actions would have been justified. If I see somebody coming into my house and I’m not expecting them, and they’re walking in like they own the place, I would -- I would act to defend myself. And this could have been very differently, had he actually had a firearm on him. Maybe it would be a different individual, she might be the one carried out."

I myself am taking a terrible risk this very moment, by being in my home without being fully strapped.
   515. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 13, 2018 at 01:58 AM (#5743361)
It should not be possible to get 60K in debt buying season tickets for 4 seats, particularly if friends paid you back in a timely manner.

If tshipman is going to comment on Judge Kavanaugh's finances, he ought to read Kavanaugh's statement, rather than constantly attempt to imagine a nonexistent gotcha. Kavanaugh never said the credit card debts on his financial disclosure form were entirely due to his Nationals tickets, he also mentioned home repair and improvement projects. There may be a problem linking directly to the Kavanaugh response PDF, as I attempted to do in #510, but it is available at the end of the long list in the 1st group of documents on this page, listed as Kavanaugh Responses To Questions For The Record, which contains his explanation:
At this time, we have no debts other than our home mortgage. Over the years, we carried some personal debt. That debt was not close to the top of the ranges listed on the financial disclosure reports. Over the years, we have sunk a decent amount of money into our home for sometimes unanticipated repairs and improvements. As many homeowners probably appreciate, the list sometimes seems to never end, and for us it has included over the years: replacing the heating and air conditioning system and air conditioning units, replacing the water heater, painting and repairing the full exterior of the house, painting the interior of the house, replacing the porch flooring on the front and side porches with composite wood, gutter repairs, roof repairs, new refrigerator, new oven, ceiling leaks, ongoing flooding in the basement, waterproofing the basement, mold removal in the basement, drainage work because of excess water outside the house that was running into the neighbor’s property, fence repair, and so on. Maintaining a house, especially an old house like ours, can be expensive. I have not had gambling debts or participated in “fantasy” leagues.

Tshipman was also incorrect when he asserted in #505 that the debts were carried over from year-to-year. There's no indication of that, and it appears that tshipman misunderstands the financial disclosure process for federal judges. The disclosure obligation just covers debts as of a certain date every year, and doesn't track their disposition. If the billing cycle for the Nationals tickets coincides with the disclosure date, they're going to appear every year, even if the balance is paid off shortly after the disclosure form is filed. Same for various home improvement projects over the years. The purpose of the financial disclosure requirement is not to monitor judges finances but to detect conflict of interests. In this instance, the forms just indicate that Kavanaugh sometimes put large expenses on his credit cards, probably to earn the points. There's nothing to this, and these "Have you now or ever attended a baseball game?" questions are representative of a New McCarthyism that should shame its practioners.
   516. tshipman Posted: September 13, 2018 at 02:23 AM (#5743363)
If tshipman is going to comment on Judge Kavanaugh's finances, he ought to read Kavanaugh's statement, rather than constantly attempt to imagine a nonexistent gotcha. Kavanaugh never said the credit card debts on his financial disclosure form were entirely due to his Nationals tickets, he also mentioned home repair and improvement projects. There may be a problem linking directly to the Kavanaugh response PDF, as I attempted to do in #510, but it is available at the end of the long list in the 1st group of documents on this page, listed as Kavanaugh Responses To Questions For The Record, which contains his explanation:


Right, Raj Shah said that.

Per seat, Nats tickets top out at about $200/seat on the first base side. That means that 4 seats would run 66K for the year.

Tshipman was also incorrect when he asserted in #505 that the debts were carried over from year-to-year. There's no indication of that, and it appears that tshipman misunderstands the financial disclosure process for federal judges. The disclosure obligation just covers debts as of a certain date every year, and doesn't track their disposition. If the billing cycle for the Nationals tickets coincides with the disclosure date, they're going to appear every year, even if the balance is paid off shortly after the disclosure form is filed. Same for various home improvement projects over the years. The purpose of the financial disclosure requirement is not to monitor judges finances but to detect conflict of interests. In this instance, the forms just indicate that Kavanaugh sometimes put large expenses on his credit cards, probably to earn the points. There's nothing to this, and these "Have you now or ever attended a baseball game?" questions are representative of a New McCarthyism that should shame its practioners.


Asking someone who magically has over a hundred thousand dollars of debt disappear overnight how that happened is hardly "New McCarthyism", particularly when that candidate writes to apologize for his actions after a dice game. It's basic oversight.

If nothing comes of it, then nothing comes of it. At a minimum, I strongly disapprove of his financial choices. All you people who shame poor people for spending $500 on a new phone should be lambasting someone who only makes $220K for having significant mortgage on a house worth 1.25mm and putting 60K in baseball tickets on a credit card.
   517. OCF Posted: September 13, 2018 at 02:27 AM (#5743364)
NRA spokesghoul Dana Loesch explains where the apartment cop murder went wrong:

NRA advocates killing cops.
   518. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 02:51 AM (#5743365)

As a candidate, Donald Trump pledged to balance the federal budget and lower the national debt, promises that are proving difficult to keep.

Once he won, Trump considered an unusual approach that was quickly slapped down by his chief economic advisor, according to veteran journalist Bob Woodward's new book, "Fear: Trump in the White House," which went on sale Tuesday.

"Just run the presses — print money," Trump said, according to Woodward, during a discussion on the national debt with Gary Cohn, former director of the White House National Economic Council.

"You don't get to do it that way," Cohn said, according to Woodward. "We have huge deficits and they matter. The government doesn't keep a balance sheet like that."

Cohn was "astounded at Trump's lack of basic understanding," Woodward writes.


Well, there has been plenty of astonishment from this administration to go around ...

CNBC

   519. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 13, 2018 at 03:17 AM (#5743366)
Asking someone who magically has over a hundred thousand dollars of debt disappear overnight how that happened is hardly "New McCarthyism", particularly when that candidate writes to apologize for his actions after a dice game. It's basic oversight.

If nothing comes of it, then nothing comes of it. At a minimum, I strongly disapprove of his financial choices. All you people who shame poor people for spending $500 on a new phone should be lambasting someone who only makes $220K for having significant mortgage on a house worth 1.25mm and putting 60K in baseball tickets on a credit card.

Once again tshipman either deliberately or recklessly misstates the basic facts, in classic McCarthyite manner. None of Kavanaugh's disclosure forms have "over a hundred thousand dollars of debts disappear overnight". The financial disclosure form lists debts in broad categories with the two relevant to Kavanaugh being "$15,000 or less" and "$15,001 - $50,000". In most years Kavanaugh only listed credit card debt in the "$15,000 or less category". In one year he had three accounts in the $15,001 - $50,000" category. Kavanaugh was quite clear that his debts were not close to the top range of those categories, yet tshipman insists on calculating as if they were, just as he falsely claims that Kavanaugh had the most expensive seats at Nationals Park. Tshipman also continues to ignore that disclosure is an annual snapshot of finances on a certain date. Any changes are year-to-year, not overnight.

Tshipman has also misstated Kavanaugh's income. In addition to his judicial salary, Kavanaugh earned $22.5-$28.8K teaching at Harvard or Yale. In recent years his wife has earned ~ $66K working for the town government. Kavanaugh also benefited from a ~ $150K payment after federal judges were awarded long-delayed cost-of-living increases. He's also covered by a retirement plan that will allow him to retire at full salary (with a COLA!) at age 65, and has invested in the Thrift Savings Plan, the Feds 401(K). Almost everyone here would gladly trade financial places with Kavanaugh.
   520. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: September 13, 2018 at 04:45 AM (#5743367)
"Just run the presses — print money," Trump said, according to Woodward, during a discussion on the national debt with Gary Cohn, former director of the White House National Economic Council.

"You don't get to do it that way," Cohn said, according to Woodward. "We have huge deficits and they matter. The government doesn't keep a balance sheet like that."

Cohn was "astounded at Trump's lack of basic understanding," Woodward writes.

So you are telling me Trump lacks the most fundamental understanding of basic economics?
   521. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 13, 2018 at 05:06 AM (#5743368)
   522. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 05:50 AM (#5743369)
He’s actually a genius and you’re too unsophisticated to understand him. Ask any professional hypnotist. Say, Dilbert.
   523. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 06:09 AM (#5743370)
   524. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 06:17 AM (#5743371)
^Tom Waits is a musical treasure.
   525. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 06:21 AM (#5743372)
So you are telling me Trump lacks the most fundamental understanding of basic economics?


He understands Republican economics just fine. Cut taxes, run up massive deficits, and wait for a Democratic President to be elected and blame them for not cutting the deficit.
   526. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 13, 2018 at 06:34 AM (#5743373)
538 has launched its Senate electoral model, to go along with their House model that's been up a few weeks.

The current forecast gives Democrats a one-third chance to take control of the Senate. Ho-lee crap.

Of the 35 seats up for election this cycle, 538 rates 4 of them as Solid Republican, 1 as Likely R, 2 as Lean R, 3 as Toss Ups, and 2 as Lean Democratic. The GOP only needs to win 8 of the 12 races, seven of which they're favored in, to retain control of the Senate.

538 gives an initial overview:
We currently forecast Democrats to win the popular vote for the U.S. House by 8 to 9 percentage points (similar to their advantage on the generic congressional ballot) — a margin that by almost any definition would qualify as a “wave election.” As a point of comparison, Republicans won the House popular vote by 7 percentage points in 1994 and in 2010, and Democrats won it by 8 points in 2006, all of which are usually considered wave years. But our model thinks that even an 8- or 9-point advantage would probably not be enough for Democrats to win the Senate.

........But just as Republicans are far from doomed in the House, they are far from safe in the Senate. Democrats need to gain only a net of two seats to take control of the Senate, and they have five plausible opportunities: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas and (most debatably) the Mississippi special election, which involves a nonpartisan blanket primary on Nov. 6 with a potential runoff three weeks later. Meanwhile, Republicans have three very good opportunities to pick off Democratic incumbents — those are McCaskill in Missouri, Heitkamp in North Dakota and (surprisingly) Bill Nelson in Florida — and there are several other states where they’re still in the running, such as Indiana. But no one of those races is a sure thing for Republicans. In fact, the Classic and Deluxe versions of our model have Republicans as slight underdogs in all of the Democratic-held seats, although the polling-driven Lite version of the forecast has them favored in North Dakota and Florida.

..........Democrats would become favorites to take the Senate if they won the overall popular vote for the House by more than about 11 points. At that point, the tailwind would simply be so strong that Democrats would probably find a way to win all or almost all of the toss-up races. ....We wouldn’t bet on Democrats winning the House popular vote by 11 points, which would be an overwhelming margin — the most lopsided margin for either party since 1982. But considering that they’re already ahead by 8 or 9 points right now, it can hardly be ruled out.

Or, the Democrats could win by means of the micro path and just have the coin come up heads in a lot of the toss-up races, even if the overall political environment isn’t any better for them than we’re currently projecting. There are 11 seats that each party has at least a 10 percent chance of winning: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia. Democrats need to win eight of those 11 to take the Senate. If each of these races were truly a coin flip — meaning, a 50-50 proposition where the outcomes were independent from one another — then Democrats would have to do the equivalent of coming up with eight heads in 11 tries, the chances of which are about 11 percent. ......[But] if you woke me up on Nov. 7 and told me that the Democrats had won the Senate, I’d guess it had been because the overall political environment had been even better for them than we’d expected — and not because they’d navigated their way through the thicket of individual races.

.........There’s a greater than 50 percent chance that either Republicans win the House or Democrats win the Senate.


Current odds of winning (*), sez 538.com:

WI - Tammy Baldwin: 96%
NJ - Robert Menendez: 93%
MN - Tina Smith: 92%
MT - Jon Tester: 90%
WV - Joe Manchin: 88.5%
MS - Cindy Hyde-Smith: 82%
IN - Joe Donnelly: 76.5%
TN - Marsha Blackburn: 70%
AZ-- Krysten Sinema: 67% (flip to D)
TX - Ted Cruz: 65%
MO - Claire McCaskill: 63.5%
ND - Heidi Heitkamp: 60%
NV - Jackie Rosen: 59.5% (flip to D)
FL - Bill Nelson: 55%

(*According to the "Classic" model, one of three that 538 offers. If you want to see Phil Bredesen or Kevin Cramer or Rick Scott in the lead, you gotta click one of the other two election models.)
   527. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 13, 2018 at 06:38 AM (#5743374)
As I’ve said, I won’t believe the Senate is really in play for Democrats until lame duck Majority Leader McConnell cancels Christmas in order to bulldoze through another eight impeccable, overwhelmingly qualified judges that no decent human being could ever oppose. And the National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar agrees:
Is the Senate in Play? Don’t Bet on It.

The odds aren’t any better now than they were several months ago. Republicans have made progress in several key states (North Dakota, Missouri, Arizona) even as they’ve suffered setbacks in others (West Virginia, Indiana, Montana).

........Most likely, the Senate will remain closely divided, with Republicans holding their narrow advantage past 2018. Republicans will blow a historic chance at picking up many seats, given the uniquely favorable Senate map, while Democrats are still struggling to ensure that all their vulnerable red-state senators return to Congress despite a favorable national environment.

………There are two competing theories of the political landscape. One, laid out by my colleague Charlie Cook, is that the House and Senate races are operating in two entirely different universes. Most of the House battlegrounds are taking place in affluent suburbia, where Trump is deeply unpopular and where Democrats should pick up numerous seats. Most of the battleground Senate races are occurring in some of the Trumpiest parts of the country, where the president is still popular and red-state Democrats are still weighed down by the liberalism of the national party.

The second theory, teased by NBC’s political team, is that one party inevitably wins all the close elections in wave years. So with polls showing competitive contests in red states like Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona, and Indiana, the instinct is to give Democrats an advantage in assessing which party has the edge. And if Democrats run the table in every close race, that’s how they can win a 51-seat majority. There’s plenty of historical precedent for this: In 2006, Democrats surprised the political world by taking back the Senate, winning all but one of the close races in the blue wave.

I’m much closer to the former camp. One senior Republican official compared wave elections to a different meteorological phenomenon: tornadoes, which can wipe out one neighborhood but leave a nearby one untouched. The 2010 GOP landslide hardly affected vulnerable Democrats in the West, which has since emerged as a Democratic beachhead in the Trump era. And in the Democrats’ 2006 wave, the only close Senate race that Republicans won took place in Tennessee, then in the middle of a political realignment to the right.

……….The blue wave that’s expected to hit Northern Virginia is unlikely to impact North Dakota. The path for Democrats to win the Senate majority depends on a near-sweep of the most Trump-friendly parts of the map: Tennessee, Missouri, and West Virginia. If Democrats shock the political world with these unlikely red-state upsets, impeachment will be the least of Trump’s troubles.
   528. McCoy Posted: September 13, 2018 at 06:51 AM (#5743376)
You know what was unlikely? A Democrat winning in Alabama.
   529. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 13, 2018 at 07:26 AM (#5743377)
Yeah, but you can't count on that everywhere. Most Republican candidates only fuck children on the environment, the deficit and education funding.
   530. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: September 13, 2018 at 07:31 AM (#5743378)
Yeah, but you can't count on that everywhere. Most Republican candidates only #### children on the environment, the deficit and education funding.


How do you know?
   531. perros Posted: September 13, 2018 at 07:59 AM (#5743380)
Kavanaugh was quite clear


He's a liar who's tracks have been effectively hidden until he can be confirmed. The Democrats are pinning him down in writing now for comparison once all his paper trail is released.

Not that it matters in the Land of Impunity. He'll never be held accountable. At least if he avoids dining out.
   532. BDC Posted: September 13, 2018 at 08:13 AM (#5743382)
this is frankly unbelievable:
The game of dice referred to in that email was not a game with monetary stakes

1. No one plays dice without money besides children.
2. No one who loses at a dice game with no stakes gets so angry they have to apologize later


Could have been dice baseball, though. I think we can probably all relate to losing our #### over that.
   533. perros Posted: September 13, 2018 at 08:20 AM (#5743384)
But here the cop didn't take any of the steps that would make it easy for her to get away with it.


She still may get away with it, but her story rings of the confusing truth. She done ###### up big time.
   534. perros Posted: September 13, 2018 at 08:29 AM (#5743385)
Or storms like Ike, that were Majors for awhile and hit Texas as only a 2.

There's bigger storms, more often, the past few years. Just because they don't hit the US doesn't mean much.


Like with the whole climate change narrative, it matters very much not to exaggerate the truth. But as Trump pointed out, if you want to wield authority in 2018 you have to scare the daylights out of people.

Florence will be a punishing storm thst will wreak havoc on an overbuilt coastline, but it will not classify as a major hurricane. The terrorization of the public this week has been obscene.
   535. Greg K Posted: September 13, 2018 at 08:33 AM (#5743386)
Florence will be a punishing storm thst will wreak havoc on an overbuilt coastline, but it will not classify as a major hurricane. The terrorization of the public this week has been obscene.

It's like the good old pre-Trump days of 2014, when CNN was able to spend 20 hours a day on plane crashes or storms.
   536. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 08:35 AM (#5743388)
Their constituents want these red state Democrats to oppose Kavanaugh :
Setting aside that their constituents include all the people in the state, not merely the ones likely to vote for them, this was a dumb argument when YC made it and it doesn't get less dumb now. Polls show the vast majority of Americans can't name a single Supreme Court justice. Not one. And you expect us to believe that people will nevertheless vote based on how a senator voted for confirmation of someone they couldn't identify?

(That's not to mention that the whole "less likely to vote for" formulation is meaningless. "Before, there was a 72% chance I was going to vote for Heitkamp. Now there's only a 64% chance that I do," said no one ever. Voting for someone is binary; you do or you don't.)
   537. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: September 13, 2018 at 08:37 AM (#5743389)
Setting aside that their constituents include all the people in the state, not merely the ones likely to vote for them, this was a dumb argument when YC made it and it doesn't get less dumb now. Polls show the vast majority of Americans can't name a single Supreme Court justice. Not one. And you expect us to believe that people will nevertheless vote based on how a senator voted for confirmation of someone they couldn't identify?


Take it up with Clapper -

He's spent more posts than everyone else combined on the political implications of the Senate vote...
   538. Lassus Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:03 AM (#5743393)
The terrorization of the public this week has been obscene.

STFU, you stupid fucking hippie. Hurricanes kill people. Hugo blew my mother's house into a lake, you idiot.
   539. McCoy Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:08 AM (#5743396)
Just got back from the keys and the scars of hurricane Irma could still be seen. Devastated land, rubble, construction, and you could see just how devastating it was too the local businesses. Virtually every business along the highway had a sign that read "now open" or "yes we're open".
   540. PreservedFish Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:11 AM (#5743397)
I've long been puzzled as to why global warming seems as if it were exclusively bad bad bad and why there were so few positive changes associated with climate change. I mean, if you're a swarm of killer bees, I guess it's positive that you now have more territory up North than you used to, but I mean positive for humans. But today on NPR I heard that the warming climate and European droughts have been just marvelous for champagne production, both quality and quantity. Champagne producers ####### love global warming.
   541. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:14 AM (#5743398)
So now Trump is saying the the death toll in PR was inflated by D's to make him look bad. That people who died of "old age" were included in the number.

You Trumpkins must be so proud of yourselves. You pieces of ####.
   542. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:14 AM (#5743400)
The terrorization of the public this week has been obscene.


Good, it should be. People should be terrified of hurricanes for the same reason they should be terrified of the third rail on the subway - they'll ####### kill you if you don't treat them with the respect they deserve.
   543. McCoy Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:15 AM (#5743401)
Global warming has caused some havoc in traditional grape growing areas(like forest fires) and will make a lot of the grape growing areas unable to grow grapes. But it has opened up new land (better known as cheaper land) for grape growing and more will follow. Supposedly Germany and the rest of northern Europe and parts of England will become a good wine growing regions and not for the cold region white wines that they currently make.

Plus we'll probably start seeing more non traditional grape varietals.
   544. manchestermets Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:18 AM (#5743402)
The thing that makes Davo's comments so tinfoil-hat stupid is that his cynicism isn't wrong; it is very easy for cops to get away with things. I've said it many many times here over the years. But here the cop didn't take any of the steps that would make it easy for her to get away with it. She was off duty, she didn't claim that he came at her, she didn't claim to have any law enforcement justification for being there,

If she had said, "I came home from a long day at work, and he was playing loud music, and I went up and knocked on his door to ask that he stop, and he opened the door and brandished a gun/knife/baseball bat/etc. at me, and he wouldn't drop it when I told him to, and then he advanced on me, so I was in fear for my life and I shot him," she'd have a decent shot at getting away with it. But she didn't invent a reasonable, exculpatory story.


But but but... I seem to recall in your analysis of the Michael Brown shooing in Ferguson that you were of the opinion that the prosecutor had tanked the case by providing selective evidence to the grand jury. In the obviously extremely unlikely event that the prosecutor in this case wished to similarly protect the cop, could he not do the same, not even mentioning her original story to the jury and playing up any narcotics that may be found during this search?
   545. BDC Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:20 AM (#5743403)
warming climate and European droughts have been just marvelous for champagne production


Including, I believe, in Kent, where the terroir is supposed to be pretty good for champagne but the climate has never cooperated. Fine English wines are on the horizon.
   546. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:22 AM (#5743407)
I've long been puzzled as to why global warming seems as if it were exclusively bad bad bad and why there were so few positive changes associated with climate change. I mean, if you're a swarm of killer bees, I guess it's positive that you now have more territory up North than you used to, but I mean positive for humans. But today on NPR I heard that the warming climate and European droughts have been just marvelous for champagne production, both quality and quantity. Champagne producers ####### love global warming.


Well, there's the viability of polar shipping routes, too...

The problem, though - is that large cities cannot just move on a dime. Miami under water means literally billions in economic losses.

The same is true of agriculture - turn the breadbasket plains into desert and you simply cannot move the people and production of crops north on a dime.

Ocean currents and fishing grounds... etc.....

Of course, it includes opportunities - but it's a bit like saying "Well, sure - my uninsured home burnt down and I lost all I had, but on the bright side - I really hated that wallpaper in the bathroom and it's gone!"
   547. PreservedFish Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5743410)
Of course, it includes opportunities


Should I be investing in land in Siberia and Canada?
   548. perros Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:29 AM (#5743415)
Good, it should be. People should be terrified of hurricanes for the same reason they should be terrified of the third rail on the subway - they'll ####### kill you if you don't treat them with the respect they deserve.


Next time your doorbell rings, it'll be Anton Chigurh. Or Amber Guyger.
   549. DavidFoss Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:31 AM (#5743416)
The same is true of agriculture - turn the breadbasket plains into desert and you simply cannot move the people and production of crops north on a dime.

There's this weird effect of climate change causing colder and stormier Aprils. I don't fully understand it, but they're saying the warmer arctic is causing cold snaps in the upper midwest. We saw that this year again. Once May hit, the weather quickly whiplashed from winter to summer. Spring only lasted a couple of weeks.

Anyhow, I don't know if you can expand the growing season because of stuff like this. It won't turn Lake Winnipeg into a tourist haven either.
   550. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:31 AM (#5743417)
Should I be investing in land in Siberia and Canada?


I suspect the problem would be that lots of it is already owned - and owned for resource extraction purposes using methods that figure it's arctic/tundra wasteland anyway, so who cares... hence - even if the climate were to shift such that the weather makes it ideal for crops.... well...

   551. Greg K Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:41 AM (#5743424)
I've long been puzzled as to why global warming seems as if it were exclusively bad bad bad and why there were so few positive changes associated with climate change. I mean, if you're a swarm of killer bees, I guess it's positive that you now have more territory up North than you used to, but I mean positive for humans. But today on NPR I heard that the warming climate and European droughts have been just marvelous for champagne production, both quality and quantity. Champagne producers ####### love global warming.

It's interesting up in Canada, where there's a certain amount of "why are milder winters a bad thing?"

I was just reading an article the other day on why global cooling in the early modern period was a good thing for the Dutch. The North Sea herring pushed further south, screwing Norwegian fishermen, but fuelling a fishery/shipbuilding boom in the Netherlands, that in turn helped fuel the Dutch global commercial empire.

Most instances of broad historical change create winners and losers. I think in the case of global warming the losers are facing catastrophic change, while the winners are anticipating mild improvements. But I think in a larger sense, people fear negative change more than they appreciate positive change (there's probably a parallel to be drawn there about why advocates of globalization don't seem to stir many heart strings).

You becoming better off (whether as an individual or as a society) is a product of hard work and destiny. You losing out is either preventable (in which case your leaders should prevent), or the result of someone screwing you.
   552. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:41 AM (#5743425)
Most Republican candidates only #### children on the environment, the deficit and education funding.


And immigration policy.
   553. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:41 AM (#5743426)
There's this weird effect of climate change causing colder and stormier Aprils. I don't fully understand it, but they're saying the warmer arctic is causing cold snaps in the upper midwest. We saw that this year again. Once May hit, the weather quickly whiplashed from winter to summer. Spring only lasted a couple of weeks.

Anyhow, I don't know if you can expand the growing season because of stuff like this. It won't turn Lake Winnipeg into a tourist haven either.


Yeah - I'm just making stuff up with ignorant what ifs.... I'd leave the details to the science guys.

The more general point is that sure, the human species is rather clever and adaptable - but there are 7 billion of us and our most "successful" (maybe not the exact word I'm looking for) endeavors are predicated on some level or manner of permanence. We build our cities and settlements - and then develop industries and production - around certain optimal attributes that exist and are present when we build them.

Of course, change is a part of life - so, of course, it didn't take climate change for mining booms towns to go bust or formerly bustling railway stop towns to get throttled to nothing by not having a major highway or whatnot.

I'm just saying that for every instance of good champagne, it seems like there's gonna be half a dozen instances of bad things that make the math an inevitable super negative.
   554. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:42 AM (#5743428)
Florence will be a punishing storm thst will wreak havoc on an overbuilt coastline, but it will not classify as a major hurricane. The terrorization of the public this week has been obscene.


I agree.
   555. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:43 AM (#5743430)
STFU, you stupid ####### hippie. Hurricanes kill people. Hugo blew my mother's house into a lake, you idiot.


Irma broke one of my outdoor ceiling fans.
   556. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:46 AM (#5743433)
I agree.


Oh yeah? At what point does the death toll rise above "ho hum"? Hopefully no one will die in the storm.
   557. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:49 AM (#5743434)
I don't think the winds of Florence will be the issue (though they will wreak havoc). It's going to be the water that destroys towns/kills most people in this storm.

All of those models have it just parking over the coast for over 24 hours. That is going to be a crap load of rain and storm surge, and it's going to be DEEP inland.
   558. PreservedFish Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:49 AM (#5743435)
It's interesting up in Canada, where there's a certain amount of "why are milder winters a bad thing?"


I live in Maine, and though I'm in favor of milder winters, the principle effect of global warming seems to be the number of evil insects that have moved north. Canada doesn't have much Lyme disease yet, but it's not something to look forward to.

We bought an air conditioner this year. Many people don't own them and say "you only really need it for a week or two," but this year the week or two was more like a month or two. I don't want to think about how brutal it was in NYC or DC.
   559. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:50 AM (#5743436)
People should be terrified of hurricanes for the same reason they should be terrified of the third rail on the subway - they'll ####### kill you if you don't treat them with the respect they deserve.


And the hubris of the news media thinking they know more about an individual's situation that the individual is appealing. I've seen tons of interviews that go something like this:

'What are to going to do if you lose power?"

"I have a generator"

"What if your generator is under water?"

'It won't be, it's elevated"

"What if you run out of gas?"

'I can't, it runs on propane, and I have a 50 gal tank."

What if, what if, what if...All the interviewers assume everyone lives in a sea level mobile home and has made no preparations and are idiots for staying. My one regret about Irma is that I evacuated. Aside from a ceiling fan, my house sustained no damage, and never lost power. meanwhile, I spent 3 cramped, miserable, sweltering days at my sister's house in Ft Lauderdale with no power before they let us return.
   560. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:52 AM (#5743438)
Virtually every business along the highway had a sign that read "now open" or "yes we're open".


A gross exaggeration. Yes, there are a few, like the Publix in Key Largo you can't see from the highway and lost their sign and haven't yet replaced it.
   561. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:56 AM (#5743439)
443


(Again, while it was the correct result under the law, it was complete BS, from a non-legal perspective, that Zimmerman was allowed to provoke a fight with a person who didn't know Zimmerman had a gun, and then, once losing the fight, blow Martin away. There is no cosmic justice that is too harsh for George Zimmerman.)


Go, Ray, go!
   562. McCoy Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:58 AM (#5743441)
Ah yes, the Marlboro man has spoken. The man's man. As has been said many times before. Human beings are bad at probability.

If "virtually every" is a gross exaggeration then so is "there are a few".
   563. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:00 AM (#5743445)
Who could have predicted this?

Trump claiming 3,00 dead in PR is fake news

Trump falsely claims nearly 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico 'did not die'

"3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000," he said in a tweet Thursday morning as Carolinians prepared to be pummeled by Hurricane Florence.

In a second tweet Thursday, Trump cast blame on Democrats, who he said are trying to make him look bad.

"This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!" he wrote.
   564. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:01 AM (#5743446)
The Modern GOP keeps looking more and more like a collection of modern day villains from Dickens novels.

Lawmaker Says Orphanages Better Than Gay Adoption

“In an exchange with high school students that was caught on tape,” Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) “was tongue-tied over the prospect of same-sex couples adopting children and suggested kids would be better off in orphanages than with LGBT families,” the Washington Blade reports.

Politico: “Smith, who has represented the 4th District for nearly 40 years and typically skates to reelection with only a token challenge, is facing a well-funded opponent this year in Navy veteran Josh Welle (D).”
   565. Ishmael Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5743452)
I know MacArthur’s Anti “Social Justice” proclamation (post 391) is gonna come up at my Bible study group next week, and I suspect it’s gonna make me long for the civility and decorum of OTP.

What denomination?

What do you normally talk about, if you don’t mind me asking?
   566. Omineca Greg Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5743453)
"There are roads here and the sand just flies. There is dust all over the ground. […] The roads are muddy. […] We used to pick berries around here. There used to be no houses along the shore. We would just go up there to pick berries, but now we can't go because [it's] too dusty."

—Agnes Kokak

"A long time ago I used to pick a lot [of cottongrass]. There used to be really a lot. Sometimes I would pick them up to make pillows and other things to fill. I haven't seen that in years."

—Laura Kohoktak

"There used to be lots of people travelling, and the only thing we would feed our dogs was caribou meat. Nowadays they are telling people not to feed their dogs with caribou meat. […] You hear that the caribou are becoming fewer and fewer every year, but that was the sort of meat we used to feed our dogs."

—Lena Allukpik

"Sometimes there are black bears around this area. We never used to get black bears in this area, but now they are everywhere. It used to be only polar bears."

—Kate Inuktalik

"Some years it's really hard to find caribou; the hunters have to go really far. […] Sometimes it's really hard in the winter when the caribou go far."

—Mona Tiktalek

"It was like we were [in] May in April last month. It's like every year it changes by the shore. There will be no more ice, like long ago."

—Agnes Kokak

"I'm worried about the seasons. I'm worried about our community. […] I'm worried about how the weather is and what is going on in other communities and around the world."

—Alice Ayalik

"It's thawing really early, before the time for it to melt. A long time ago there used to be a lot of snow in July. Now it melts too early. […] It's even taking longer to freeze up."

—Lena Allukpik

"We're having early breakup because of the ice. It doesn't get very [thick] anymore. […] The ice sometimes takes forever to freeze. The ice is too thin. It's easier to melt. It's really early this year. […] We get more winds from the south; that's why the breakup is early. We keep getting this warm weather from the south. It's a lot warmer, too, in the summertime. I think the winters are getting shorter. […] Too warm. It's getting warmer."

—Joseph Niptanatiak

"We notice even our spring, summer, winter, and fall, they are not the same anymore. We know how our days and years are. The stars, the moon, the sun. We notice the difference now in the changes."

—Mamie Oniak

"The water is not as cold, too, and it's taking forever to freeze up. […] Even when we have the ice freeze-up it doesn't get thick anymore. It's just not too thick. […] A long time ago the ice would freeze right away and it would be really thick. Now it's really thin in some places."

—Roy Inuktalik

"I remember a long time ago there used to be so much snow. Nowadays, hardly any snow. I think our world is changing, I guess. It wasn't so bad many years ago but nowadays the wind is stronger. We have more cold winds. […] We don't get very many thunderstorms now, either. I remember when I used to be inland, there was lots of lightning and lots of thunder."

—John Ohokak

"The permafrost is thawing. The people in Tuktoyaktuk [in the Northwest Territories] are kind of afraid—the people who have houses—for the permafrost is starting to thaw. It's probably getting to be like that in other places, too."

—Joseph Niptanatiak

"Not very much water; the level of the water has gone down. Even on the mountains over here, we just have little ponds and little places where there's going to be water. We don't see that anymore. Even on the little hills and steep places […] sometimes you could get water for tea. We never see that anymore."

—Mary Kellogok

"So many years ago there was a lot of snow; [the young people] used to go behind the island to build igluit [igloos] with the snow, but not anymore. Not enough snow."

—Alice Ayalik

"The seasons changed. […] It blows so much that you can't get very much snow. Before, there used to be lots of snow and it was good for travelling [by dog team]."

—Mark and Martha Taletok


Quotes from Inuit Elders in The Caribou Taste Different Now
   567. DavidFoss Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:05 AM (#5743454)
Who could have predicted this?

It's still a bit shocking to see it in print. A few people on twitter are actually feeling bad for the worker bees over at the Daily Caller & The Federalist for being required to write up defenses of these two tweets.

Eventually, someone on the left will 'overreact' and then they can lash out at that instead.
   568. perros Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5743457)
Hugo blew my mother's house into a lake,


I saw the pics
   569. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:10 AM (#5743458)
My one regret about Irma is that I evacuated. Aside from a ceiling fan, my house sustained no damage, and never lost power. meanwhile, I spent 3 cramped, miserable, sweltering days at my sister's house in Ft Lauderdale with no power before they let us return.

So you spent 3 cramped, miserable, sweltering days at my sister's house in Ft Lauderdale with no power before they let you return. Presumably you've recovered by now, although I've heard that after 3 days sisters can smell like fish.

And what if you'd stayed put, and Irma had changed course?
   570. Greg K Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:10 AM (#5743459)
I live in Maine, and though I'm in favor of milder winters, the principle effect of global warming seems to be the number of evil insects that have moved north. Canada doesn't have much Lyme disease yet, but it's not something to look forward to.

We've been getting a lot of Lyme warnings/prep the last couple years. Doesn't sound fun.
   571. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:14 AM (#5743464)
If "virtually every" is a gross exaggeration then so is "there are a few".


I live here. There are few. Publix is the only one that comes to mind between Key Largo and Lower Matecumbe. Maybe the Islander, though I don't recall seeing one. I drove to Key West last weekend to officiate in a volleyball tournament. It was my first time since irma that I went past Marathon, and frankly, I hardly noticed anything different, other than a lot more ocean views where trees used to be.

I'm not saying everyone in a beachfront shack should remain. But not everybody does. I have every confidence in the sturdiness of my house and my ability to prepare with food, water, ice, etc. I don't have a generator, but so what? Not having electricity is not the end of the world, and our power grid down here is far, far more hardened than on the mainland.

I have a great fear and respect for hurricanes. That's why I live in an elevated all concrete home (including the roof), with 175 MPH impact glass doors and windows. Treating the storms with respect does not require one to run away every time you're in the cone. A very specific subset of key's residents were devastated by Irma. Oceanfron ground level homes and businesses eases, and those in poorly constructed homes. In the aftermath of the storm, there was one reported filmed constantly in front of a pile of broken lumber that used to be a home on Big Pine Key. The focus on him was deliberately very narrow, because they didn't want to show the two undamaged concrete homes on either side.

   572. McCoy Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:15 AM (#5743465)
I went all the way down to key West I saw more than three signs.
   573. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:16 AM (#5743467)
"What if your generator is under water?"

'It won't be, it's elevated"


There are a lot of people who tried to weather hurricanes at home in what they considered to be elevated positions, and then ended up drowning because they underestimated the storm surge.

But I guess some people have to learn everything the hard way... just hope some poor Coastie or state trooper doesn't get killed trying to rescue his dumb ass.
   574. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:20 AM (#5743469)
And what if you'd stayed put, and Irma had changed course?


Um, I would have been better off? Where it hit could hardly have been worse for the Upper Keys. We got the strong side of the storm for just about the longest possible time period.
   575. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:21 AM (#5743470)
We've been getting a lot of Lyme warnings/prep the last couple years. Doesn't sound fun.


A photographer my company works with just caught Lyme a couple months ago.
   576. Morty Causa Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:21 AM (#5743472)
But I guess some people have to learn everything the hard way... just hope some poor Coastie or state trooper doesn't get killed trying to rescue his dumb ass.

Seemingly, according to the majority view here, the coppers would deserve what they get.
   577. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:21 AM (#5743473)
466

More major hurricanes aren't hitting North Carolina or the United States. In fact, we just completed the longest period without a major hurricane hitting the eastern U.S., 2005-2017.


Hurricane Sandy (2012) and I call BULLSHIT on this one.
   578. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:22 AM (#5743474)
Quotes from Inuit Elders in The Caribou Taste Different Now


Very interesting, Greg. Thanks for sharing.
   579. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:23 AM (#5743475)
Hurricane Sandy
Sandy wasn’t a hurricane by the time it hit us. That’s why people started calling it Superstorm Sandy.
   580. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:23 AM (#5743476)
I went all the way down to key West I saw more than three signs.


How many? 10? 20? I doubt it was more than that. 20 in 108 miles counts as few in my book. And a good many of them were undoubtably like the Publix one. their sign blew down, it hasn't been replaced yet, and the "We're open" banner is nothing more than a temporary sign. I'll cop to there being some of those, but to me they are unremarkable because I know the business has been up and running since shortly after the storm.
   581. Morty Causa Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5743478)
Um, I would have been better off? Where it hit could hardly have been worse for the Upper Keys. We got the strong side of the storm for just about the longest possible time period.

Funny how we always know what the exact right decision should be--in retrospect.
   582. perros Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:27 AM (#5743480)
More than 30,000 people are killed on the roads each year, and many times that injured. How much more blood must be spilled before we ban the automobile and end the carnage?
   583. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:29 AM (#5743485)
481

MSNBC's Chris Hayes now on Michael Moore in Moore's hometown of Flint, MI. should be interesting.
whatever one thinks of Moore, he did a better job than the "experts" of warning about the Rust Belt's volatility in the 2016 election.


Exactly, Howie. And attention should be paid, because now he's predicting that DJT will gin up some pretext of "national security" to name himself President For Life.
   584. DavidFoss Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:31 AM (#5743486)
Hurricane Irene was a Cat 1 when it hit skirted the Outer Banks in 2011. That was technically a landfall. It had weakened to a Tropical Storm by the time it hit NJ & NY though.
   585. dlf Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:31 AM (#5743487)
My one regret about Irma is that I evacuated. Aside from a ceiling fan, my house sustained no damage, and never lost power. meanwhile, I spent 3 cramped, miserable, sweltering days at my sister's house in Ft Lauderdale with no power before they let us return.


You are on the NE side of the Key, right? Basically no issues with storm surge and Largo isn't going to have a problem from excessive rain, so your only problem would be wind damage. That can be a ##### but with good construction, anything up to a C-III isn't too big of a deal.

I lived on the Gulf Coast for a decade and weathered a couple without significant issues. (Watch out for pecan trees - their root systems are pretty shallow for such huge trees. But after they've come down and you split them, you've got awesome bbq smoke for months.) My worst was actually after moving ~150 miles inland when around 1996 Opal spawned tornadoes in Montgomery and brought down a tree on the corner of our house.
   586. McCoy Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:34 AM (#5743489)
What we're seeing is classic over compensation and humans are bad at probability. I was prepared for x but x didn't turn out so bad so I'm not going to take the next x as seriously. Maybe the next x won't be bad either and maybe the next one after that as well but eventually an x will be bad or even worse than expected and it is going to cost you far more than the inconvenience of staying with your sister for 3 days.
   587. perros Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5743493)
I lived on the Gulf Coast for a decade and weathered a couple without significant issues. (Watch out for pecan trees - their root systems are pretty shallow for such huge trees. But after they've come down and you split them, you've got awesome bbq smoke for months.) My worst was actually after moving ~150 miles inland when around 1996 Opal spawned tornadoes in Montgomery and brought down a tree on the corner of our house.


If you withstand the wind (and aren't right on the water), you're often better off on the coast than on the inland path. The issue this time is the 24-hour stall after landfall. Still, most flooding will be well away from the coast, where the water has quick exit points.
   588. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:37 AM (#5743494)
Pope Francis at Mass: Bishops must pray to overcome 'Great Accuser’

“In these times, it seems like the 'Great Accuser' has been unchained and is attacking bishops. True, we are all sinners, we bishops. He tries to uncover the sins, so they are visible in order to scandalize the people. The 'Great Accuser', as he himself says to God in the first chapter of the Book of Job, 'roams the earth looking for someone to accuse'. A bishop’s strength against the 'Great Accuser' is prayer, that of Jesus and his own, and the humility of being chosen and remaining close to the people of God, without seeking an aristocratic life that removes this unction. Let us pray, today, for our bishops: for me, for those who are here, and for all the bishops throughout the world.”


These priests are defiling your temple and you liken their accusers to Satan. The laity is looking to Francis for spiritual guidance and he’s just acting like a politician.
   589. dlf Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:40 AM (#5743497)
What we're seeing is classic over compensation and humans are bad at probability.


That and the news / government reporting the worst case scenario as the most likely one. To tie this back to an earlier comment just above, its as if Fox/CNN lead every news hour with pictures of every car wreck and prognostication for future 15 car interstate pileups. Just because there is a possibility of dying when I get on 400 in a couple of hours doesn't mean that I'm going to refuse to get into a car this afternoon. Odds of significant harm in a hurricane are pretty low too.
   590. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:43 AM (#5743498)
510

I doubt any of the Democrats will attempt to justify their votes against Kavanaugh on his failure to fully finger the friends who joined in a rare poker game, or even an outing at Nationals Park, but read the document yourself.


Shorter Clapper: Kavanaugh must not only need to be confirmed, it must be unanimously, enthusiastically and with all the love the entire senate can muster.
   591. DavidFoss Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:49 AM (#5743500)
Sure, the wall-to-wall news coverage can be more than a bit breathless and overkill. That doesn't mean that it doesn't help to warn people about what is coming. If you already know the drill, then you can turn the TV off. Or just track the NHC map which only updates every 4-5 hours. You don't have to watch the nightly news anchors standing on a windy beach all day long.
   592. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:54 AM (#5743502)
You don't have to watch the nightly news anchors standing on a windy beach all day long.


*changes the channel*
   593. McCoy Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5743503)
Re 589

Do you wear a seat belt? Are driving on the highways in a model A? Are you zipping through traffic at 110mph?

The reality is you do things every time you drive and even before you drive that lowers the probability of a fatal crash. You don't pshaw the risk and do whatever you want.

If you have the ability to get out of the way of a hurricane you should do so. Why even take a 1% risk if you don't have too? Why be an issue for limited resources and services if you don't have too?
   594. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5743507)
@mkraju:
Asked if Trump tweet on Puerto Rico disturbed him, Speaker Ryan said:

"I’ll just say what I just said, which is there is no reason to dispute these numbers. This is a devastating storm that hit an isolated island. And that’s really no one’s fault. It’s just what happened.”
   595. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:04 AM (#5743510)
555

I'm just saying that for every instance of good champagne, it seems like there's gonna be half a dozen instances of bad things that make the math an inevitable super negative.


Hitler built the autobahn and the Volkswagen and Mussolini had the trains running on time, too. #justsayin
   596. McCoy Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:07 AM (#5743514)
The trains did not run on time and Hitler basically inherited the building of the Autobahn. Though he and his lackies embraced the propaganda potential of the construction.
   597. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5743515)
That and the news / government reporting the worst case scenario as the most likely one. To tie this back to an earlier comment just above, its as if Fox/CNN lead every news hour with pictures of every car wreck and prognostication for future 15 car interstate pileups. Just because there is a possibility of dying when I get on 400 in a couple of hours doesn't mean that I'm going to refuse to get into a car this afternoon. Odds of significant harm in a hurricane are pretty low too.


I think that the problem is there's a difference between risk elimination and risk mitigation...
   598. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5743524)
Hurricane Sandy

Sandy wasn’t a hurricane by the time it hit us. That’s why people started calling it Superstorm Sandy.


Whatever. Still bullshit. That distinction is cold comfort to my family in Long Beach who had to skedaddle and then raise their homes.
   599. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5743525)
Miserlou in #571 speaks to some of the problems with Florence. NC is obsessed with building #### on and near the beach, and there's a lot of crappy construction, and construction in places where there shouldn't be construction, and just a general refusal to consider why all of this might be a bad idea. And on top of that a refusal to understand that barrier islands are really just big migratory sandbars, and that even if climate change is a product of the Clinton Foundation the barrier islands are still going to want to move around a lot and occasionally disappear. But here -- does a road keep getting washed out? That doesn't mean that the road is in a bad place, it's just a fluke. Rebuild the road!
   600. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:14 AM (#5743526)
The trains did not run on time

Relative for Italy. You have to grade that #### on a curve.
Page 6 of 14 pages ‹ First  < 4 5 6 7 8 >  Last ›

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
James Kannengieser
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogMLB must fix glaring problem that ruined an all-time classic
(98 - 12:09pm, Oct 21)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogMLB -- Manny Machado, Yasiel Puig embrace their villain roles all the way to the World Series
(1 - 12:00pm, Oct 21)
Last: Rough Carrigan

NewsblogOT - NBA Thread (2018-19 season kickoff edition)
(803 - 11:58am, Oct 21)
Last: Booey

NewsblogOTP 2018 October 15: The shift in focus from sport to politics
(1454 - 11:13am, Oct 21)
Last: baravelli

NewsblogMookie Betts to second base? Alex Cora isn’t ruling it out | Boston.com
(7 - 10:52am, Oct 21)
Last: Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens

NewsblogLEAGUE CHAMPION SERIES OMNICHATTER! for the 2018 Playoffs!
(2616 - 10:43am, Oct 21)
Last: perros

NewsblogWhat It Took to Write About Baseball as a Woman
(26 - 10:27am, Oct 21)
Last: AndrewJ

NewsblogThe Brewers are becoming more and more positionless on defense | SI.com
(23 - 10:26am, Oct 21)
Last: Greg Pope

NewsblogFor Dave Dombrowski, Another World Series on the Path to the Hall of Fame - The New York Times
(3 - 7:43am, Oct 21)
Last: Der-K: at 10% emotional investment

NewsblogOT - October 2018 College Football thread
(156 - 11:42pm, Oct 20)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogWhy The Dodgers' WS Odds are So High
(27 - 11:28pm, Oct 20)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogCatch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (October 2018)
(544 - 10:57pm, Oct 20)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogBest 2018-19 Hot Stove value may be in trade
(2 - 6:44pm, Oct 20)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogAstros' Jose Altuve underwent surgery to repair right knee injury
(1 - 6:01pm, Oct 20)
Last: Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB)

Sox TherapyAmerican League Champions!!!!
(32 - 5:17pm, Oct 20)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

Page rendered in 0.8006 seconds
46 querie(s) executed