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Monday, September 24, 2018

OTP 2018 September 24: Baseball and the presidency

He tells us that Theodore Roosevelt, for all his heroics and man of action persona, detested baseball. For TR, the game was too slow, too staid, too devoid of the rough and tumble he loved – even though as a good pol he sang its praises as it grew in popularity.

His daughter, Alice Roosevelt Longworth: “Father and all of us regard[ed] baseball as a mollycoddle game. Tennis, football, lacrosse, boxing, polo, yes. They are violent, which appealed to us. But baseball? Father wouldn’t watch it, not even at Harvard!”

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 24, 2018 at 08:48 AM | 3291 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, politics

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   401. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:20 PM (#5751117)
So it’s obvious Kavanaugh was a scumbag. And it’s pretty clear at this point he was rapey. Also that he committed perjury. And that mobsters helped pay off his substantial gambling debts in exchange for ______.

So why y’all want him on the court so badly?
   402. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:23 PM (#5751118)
I’m pretty sure Kavanaugh was a scumbag. Also that he committed perjury. And that mobsters helped him pay off his substantial gambling debts in exchange for ______.
It's hard to make Sam seem rational, but you're somehow managing to make him look sane in comparison.

EDIT: Your edit to your own post just hammers my point home.
   403. Lassus Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:24 PM (#5751119)
To annoy liberals. That's basically 85% of their platform.
   404. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:25 PM (#5751120)
Like, Random Judge X is obviously a better candidate. Why not go with him?
   405. tshipman Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:25 PM (#5751121)
I personally have a problem with YC trying to smear her, and David saying that her motivations were not honorable.
Neither of those things happened.


You're a ####### liar.

An honorable woman wouldn't have made the accusation.
   406. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:27 PM (#5751122)
I guess if you can't take out Kavanaugh with far-fetched claims that he accosted women and then lied about it, turn it around and go after him with claims that he didn't do anything with women but claimed he did.

What that has to do with being on the Supreme Court 35 years later is anyone's guess, but desperate is desperate.
   407. Lassus Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:27 PM (#5751123)
and then dismissed it with this devastating paragraph:

Guys, I think I know who's writing all those 2-cent clickbait spam headlines.
   408. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:29 PM (#5751124)
Like, was Neil Gorsuch really the only non-cartoon-villain conservative judge who passed the Fed Soc’s ideological purity test? Once he was picked they were out, it was down to drunk rapists in deep with Vinnie or the guy who once said something nice about the EPA? Damn that’s a short bench!
   409. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:29 PM (#5751125)
No, Shipman's the liar; I explained right after the post that it was intended to point out the ridiculousness of the claim that an honorable Kavanaugh would have withdrawn.
   410. tshipman Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:30 PM (#5751126)
And here's clapper from the previous thread:

Is it really coincidental that Ms. Ford put herself in the position to inevitably be the reluctantly outted witness? And that the timing just happens to come right before the vote but too late for her story to be pursued during the hearings?


Although it did lead to a good joke by Gonfalon.
   411. tshipman Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:34 PM (#5751127)
No, you're the liar; I explained right after the post that it was intended to point out the ridiculousness of the claim that an honorable Kavanaugh would have withdrawn.


Oh, but you explained your position further:

EDIT: That having been said, while she had every right to make the accusation if true, the way she went about it actually was pretty dishonorable regardless. You don't anonymously accuse someone of a serious crime.


You know that people can read what you wrote? Like, you can't just lie about it later?
   412. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:35 PM (#5751128)
It’d be like if the reason Obama never submitted someone after Garland is cuz his backup choice, sure, he had the backing of the American Comstitution Society, which is nice, but there was also that unpleasantness back in 2007. Though many people think that little girl was lying.
   413. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:36 PM (#5751130)
You know that people can read what you wrote? Like, you can't just lie about it later?
Right. Exactly. Like, I wrote "the way she went about it" was dishonorable, and you changed it to, "her motivations were dishonorable."

In case you can't grasp the difference: the latter depends on whether she's telling the truth. The former does not.
   414. tshipman Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:39 PM (#5751131)
Right. Exactly. Like, I wrote "the way she went about it" was dishonorable, and you changed it to, "her motivations were dishonorable."

In case you can't grasp the difference: the latter depends on whether she's telling the truth. The former does not.


Gosh, I guess I just misconstrued you when you wrote twice in one page that she was dishonorable.

Sure there's no way that kind of talk might discourage victims of rape from coming forward.

And then you have the gall to pedantically split hairs about phrasing. You sack of ####.
   415. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:47 PM (#5751132)

Like, Random Judge X is obviously a better candidate. Why not go with him?
Uh, because there's nothing wrong with Kavanaugh? You can't find a single thing he did wrong in the last 35 years. There is not a single person on the planet who could pass the fake dishonest purity tests that nutty leftists are trying to impose on Kavanaugh. So pathetic that you're reduced to saying that he may have obliquely exaggerated his dating success in high school in a forum that nobody ever read, and that this is somehow an issue. Who gives a ####?

Just say that you hate white males, especially well-to-do ones, and you can't stand the thought of anyone on the court that may not be a communist, and stop inventing these phony character slams, please.
   416. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:47 PM (#5751133)
And here's clapper from the previous thread:

Is it really coincidental that Ms. Ford put herself in the position to inevitably be the reluctantly outted witness? And that the timing just happens to come right before the vote but too late for her story to be pursued during the hearings?

You'll have to explain where the so-called "smear" is. Pointing out how ludicrous it is for someone to come forward with what they claim is an important accusation, but then say I don't really want to be involved? Someone with the advanced education & political activity of Ford? Dilly-dallying for months, then requesting numerous postponements? You apparently don't want Ford to be cross-examined, and have tried to pre-empt the inevitable fallout from a poor performance by claiming it is a smear to raise any questions about her credibility, despite the fact that every witness she has named has disputed her account. Of course, by tshipman's standard, Atticus Finch was a defender of "rape culture".
   417. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:49 PM (#5751136)
Perhaps even explain that Kavanaugh's fate is supposed to be decided by the Senate, not tabloid TV?
And yet there have been pro-Kavanaugh TV spots for over a month now, long before any of these accusations came to light.

Plus Kavanaugh himself just went on tabloid TV to make his case.
   418. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:50 PM (#5751137)
Sure there's no way that kind of talk might discourage victims of rape from coming forward.
Right. Exactly.

But of course it would be good if accusers were discouraged from anonymously smearing people with no evidence. Defending such conduct as you're doing is, some might say, deplorable.
   419. Mike A Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:56 PM (#5751138)
Every Republican I talked to tonight is 100% convinced Ford is lying.

But aren't the odds more likely she's not? Most studies put the percent of false sexual assault reports at roughly 5%, give or take a few percentage points. Even if you add in the remote possibility that she may be misremembering the attacker, it's still going to be low odds that she's lying, right?
   420. strong silence Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:02 AM (#5751139)
just day you hate white males

Feeling defensive?

Listen to women David. You're life will be better.

This isn't about you David.
   421. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:03 AM (#5751140)

But aren't the odds more likely she's not? Most studies put the percent of false sexual assault reports at roughly 5%, give or take a few percentage points. Even if you add in the remote possibility that she may be misremembering the attacker, it's still going to be low odds that she's lying, right?
No, that's not what studies say. First, as I keep pointing out, those are only reports to police, not anyone who makes such a claim in any forum. Second, that's the subset that are confirmed to be false, not the much larger percentage that are ultimately not substantiated. Third, I don't think the percent of people who go to the police and falsely claim that someone broke into their apartments or grabbed them on a dark street or wouldn't take no for an answer at the end of a date sheds any light one way or the other on the likelihood that someone who waits 36 years and then claims that someone who is about to be appointed to the Supreme Court tried to rape them is telling the truth. Fourth, I don't think the possibility that someone misidentifies or misremembers someone decades later is remote at all.
   422. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:04 AM (#5751141)

Listen to women David. You're life will be better.

This isn't about you David.
It's not about "women," either.
   423. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:04 AM (#5751142)
Right. Exactly. Like, I wrote "the way she went about it" was dishonorable, and you changed it to, "her motivations were dishonorable."

In case you can't grasp the difference: the latter depends on whether she's telling the truth. The former does not.


Gosh, I guess I just misconstrued you when you wrote twice in one page that she was dishonorable.

Sure there's no way that kind of talk might discourage victims of rape from coming forward.

And then you have the gall to pedantically split hairs about phrasing. You sack of ####.


Not that David's comment was flattering to her but I do see a difference... And I don't see why he can't criticize the way she came forward even if she is telling the truth. Making a serious accusation anonymously does seem unfair.

Note that both Ford and Kavanaugh may be victims -- Ford if she was sexually assaulted and Kavanaugh if she is mistaken about who did it.
   424. strong silence Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:06 AM (#5751143)
Just say that you hate white males, especially well-to-do ones, and you can't

The libertarian finally reveally his aristocratic and class-conscuous leanings. Glad we got that out.
   425. strong silence Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:10 AM (#5751145)
It's not about "women," either.

Uh, it's hard to believe that you care much for women and POC. What is the evidence that you do?
   426. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:10 AM (#5751146)
Perhaps even explain that Kavanaugh's fate is supposed to be decided by the Senate, not tabloid TV?

And yet there have been pro-Kavanaugh TV spots for over a month now, long before any of these accusations came to light. Plus Kavanaugh himself just went on tabloid TV to make his case.

Has any pro-Kavanaugh witness gone on TV, but refused to make a statement to the Judiciary Committee? Has any pro-Kavanaugh witness refused to testify when scheduled, or demanded special treatment? It's no on both. Apparently you think Kavanaugh and those backing him should just accept the smears without mounting a defense. Sorry, that's not happening.
   427. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:12 AM (#5751148)

Uh, it's hard to believe that you care much for women and POC. What is the evidence that you do?
I don't understand the question. I care about people, not about women qua women or POC qua POC.
   428. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:19 AM (#5751149)
Perhaps someone can explain to Clapper that no matter how stridently he keeps stumping for Kavanaugh, Kavanaugh's fate is supposed to be decided by the Senate, not tabloid OTP.

The alert reader will note that the pro-Kavanaugh TV spots have been aired since well before any of the accusations came to light. Interesting that... someone?... thought they would be necessary.

And it's amusing that Clapper feels the need to be condescending about how it must be explained to posters how the Senate decides these things, then defends the tabloid strategy of Kavanaugh.
   429. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:25 AM (#5751150)
But aren't the odds more likely she's not? Most studies put the percent of false sexual assault reports at roughly 5%, give or take a few percentage points.

Those "studies" used a flawed methodology, focusing on those exonerated after conviction, or after being formally charged. There's apparently no reliable tracking of the much larger number of cases where charges are never brought because the accuser isn't credible. On top of that, some jurisdictions are reportedly reluctant to bring charges for filing a false police report against women found to have lied about rape for fear of discouraging legitimate claims. That's absurd - we don't worry that arresting people for filing false insurance claims will discourage legitimate insurance claims. You want to be sure there's actual evidence of lying, not inconclusive he said-she said disputes, but attempting to falsely put someone in prison is a serious offense. Again, we don't decide credibility issues based on gender. Those proposing to do so for Ford need to do so because that's all she has, by every other measure she doesn't pass the credibility test.
   430. strong silence Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:27 AM (#5751151)
What's the last book you read by a female author?

What's the last book you read by a non-white person?

When did you last cry and why?

I digress. You're not on trial David. However, your logical mind isn't grounded with empathy.
   431. Mike A Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:27 AM (#5751152)
Even if the false accusation rates aren't as low as 5%, the percent is still going to be relatively low. And sure, many accusations are not substantiated because it's often difficult to get strong evidence and it turns into a 'he said, she said' situation. It's tough to convict on that. The time passing is an issue, and perhaps the timing is as well, but I'm still weighing the odds and it tells me she's likely telling the truth. I just don't see enough motivation for her to lie.

That doesn't mean 100%, of course, and the reality of the matter is we'll probably never know for sure.

Is there enough to keep Kavanaugh off the court? I don't know yet.
   432. strong silence Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:30 AM (#5751153)
   433. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:30 AM (#5751155)
I'm pretty well convinced that Kavanaugh was a drunk in the time period in question. (Not that that means he committed these acts obviously but FWIW it's consistent with both accusers' stories.)

It also doesn't speak well of him that he's had two women come forward willing to say that he did bad things -- attempted rape in one case. I think it would take a lot for someone who knows you to make up a defamatory story about you.

Of course, neither woman (unless I'm wrong about Ramirez in this respect) seems to have known him that well. This is in stark contrast to Anita Hill having worked closely with Clarence Thomas.

I would not be shocked if the allegations are true. But there's a difference between that and meeting a reasonable standard of evidence for claims such as these.
   434. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:32 AM (#5751156)

Has any pro-Kavanaugh witness gone on TV, but refused to make a statement to the Judiciary Committee? Has any pro-Kavanaugh witness refused to testify when scheduled, or demanded special treatment? It's no on both.
Speaking of which, is Ford actually going to appear?
   435. strong silence Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:34 AM (#5751157)
not about women qua women or POC qua POC.

Does this mean you don't care for a person merely because he or she belongs to a class of people?
   436. strong silence Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:40 AM (#5751158)
Ray, how is reasonable standard defined? I am asking for our view, not how the law views it. How do you weigh one person's character against that of another? One person integrity against another's? Ultimately, one person's life against another's?
   437. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:43 AM (#5751160)
Speaking of which, is Ford actually going to appear?


I do think it lessens her credibility to be attempting to set conditions in this way.

Again I note: When the world was against Roger Clemens he said "I'm telling the truth and I'm going to Congress and I'm going to tell them what I know." He didn't say "But only if conditions ABCDEF are met."

It probably seems that I'm at times taking both sides of the argument. But I don't see how to avoid that, in a situation where an accuser has made a credible claim but there remains much doubt about whether the person she's pointing the finger at is actually guilty. It's difficult for me to see how both camps (pro-Ford and pro-Kavanaugh, for shorthand) remain on one side of the fence or the other at all times.
   438. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:49 AM (#5751161)
I think it would take a lot for someone who knows you to make up a defamatory story about you.

Ray, look at what some folks make up just to score points in a political thread on a baseball website. The response in some quarters here wouldn't be pretty if you were ever nominated to the Supreme Court. Catchers throwing lanes would almost certainly overshadow high school yearbook shenanigans.

And the two accusers aren't just random classmates, both have been reported to be very active politically in opposition to the current administration. Their possible political motivation might be less of an issue if there was any corroboration, but there isn't. What are the odds of legitimate accusers having no corroboration and every witness they name dispute their account?
   439. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:56 AM (#5751162)
"Don't be a cartoonish supervillain" is too much of a purity test for poor David N!
   440. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 12:58 AM (#5751163)

Does this mean you don't care for a person merely because he or she belongs to a class of people?
It depends on whether the class is a self-selected one. I hate Yankees fans and Nazis and socialists and the like. But -- and to go back to your 430 -- what kind of person thinks of a book as a "book by a non-white person" or a "book by a woman"?
   441. Morty Causa Posted: September 25, 2018 at 01:04 AM (#5751164)
The opposition and especially the opposition media (and that includes The New Yorker, Slate, the Times, Post, CNN, MSNBC) have entered desperation mode. They are frantically trawling for any and every thing they can find that will find traction, and are throwing everything that can possibly stick to the public urinal wall. Time is running out. There are only a few minutes left in this game and only a Hail Mary pass can save the Democrats and liberals from having leverage in an autocratic institution. Take no prisoners. Kill 'em all is the attitude. For the prospect they behold is truly frightening. After all, the Court was instrumental in giving them what they wanted since at least the '60s and '70s--to hell with the democratic process--and they've been holding position since. But their opposition has never given. If anything their impetus is stronger than ever. The jig is up, the Democrats and liberals fear, unless they can dredge up enough to get a couple of defectors from the Republicans. That means ratcheting up their constituency sense of outrage so that they will turn up the heat on the representatives in government. For at stake, as we witnessed 50 years ago, is control of the Court for decades maybe. This is no time for any stinkin' dignity or decency.
   442. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 25, 2018 at 01:08 AM (#5751165)
Clapper, #395:
Ali deleted his tweets, not because anyone, especially me, was using them unfairly, but because they made the New Yorker look bad, and it is one of his major freelance gigs.


Yankee Clapper, correct as always.

Yashar Ali:
I deleted these two tweets because the first was being shared without the clarification. It is true that NBC/NYT/WAPO were aware of the Ramirez accusations for at least a week. But she only spoke to the New Yorker. [Deleted original tweets reposted side-by-side]


And your plaintive "But, it was the only tweet I saw!" alibi is pathetic. Especially after your belligerent and unapologetic abuse of Zonk for the identical "I didn't see the other one" snafu a month ago. Except in that case Zonk was right, and you were an unrepentant boor.

That was lowly behavior. But these last ~10 days have been your shabbiest, shittiest performance ever. Uh, congratulations?
   443. strong silence Posted: September 25, 2018 at 01:11 AM (#5751166)
A person who who likes to learn from different people.

Yes, people of color have self-selected. That means they feel they have unique experiences or attitudes (that they feel are worthy of attention.)
   444. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 25, 2018 at 01:12 AM (#5751167)
Poor sad Gonfalon, imaginary protector of the twitterverse.
   445. Morty Causa Posted: September 25, 2018 at 01:18 AM (#5751168)
Yes, people of color have self-selected. That means they feel they have unique experiences or attitudes (that they feel are worthy of attention.)


Who and what group of people don't feel that way?
   446. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 01:21 AM (#5751169)
A person who who likes to learn from different people.
Maybe when you see a black person you think, "Hey, he's different from me," but I don't think that says something flattering about you.
Yes, people of color have self-selected.
Nope. Pretty sure they were born that way. Except Rachel Dolezal.
That means they feel they have unique experiences or attitudes (that they feel are worthy of attention.)
Everyone has unique experiences and attitudes. But that doesn’t turn on their skin color.
   447. Mike A Posted: September 25, 2018 at 01:23 AM (#5751170)
I'm pretty well convinced that Kavanaugh was a drunk in the time period in question. (Not that that means he committed these acts obviously but FWIW it's consistent with both accusers' stories.)
Kavanaugh's Freshman Yale roommate described Brett as a heavy drinker who became 'belligerent' and 'aggressive' when drunk. Said he was incoherently drunk a lot. Also believes his friend Ramirez, saying Kavanaugh and his circle were 'capable' of the behavior described in her story. Like you say, it doesn't mean he did these things, but if one is often becoming incoherently drunk, well...it ups the odds.
   448. strong silence Posted: September 25, 2018 at 01:26 AM (#5751171)
Morty, all people feel that way.

I think David thinks he cares for all people, regardless of race, creed, etc.

But how can someone care (about all people) without listening or trying to understand (all people)?
   449. strong silence Posted: September 25, 2018 at 01:34 AM (#5751172)
something flattering about you.

It might not flatter me but I don't care about that. I think a black person or any person might be different. So I engage. However you don't seem to even be curious about different people. For example, you rarely, if ever, ask someone here at OTP for his opinion.
   450. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 25, 2018 at 01:51 AM (#5751173)
Speaking of which, is Ford actually going to appear?

Not much reason for Ford's attorney (her new one Bromwich, not Katz) to write that letter other than to try to give her an out. A witness doesn't have any standing to tell the Committee who may question her, and the division of labor between Senators & staff is up to the Senators. In any event, if you can't answer questions from a staff counsel, it's unlikely that you'd do any better if the Comitteee just had one of the better lawyer Senators lead the questioning, which was the other option. But I've been assured by Andy and others here that Ford will definitely testify and it was suggested that I'm just trying to undermine her by expressing any doubt. You guys still sure? And agree that pulling out at the last moment is a desperate gambit? Can we have a roll call?
   451. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 25, 2018 at 02:00 AM (#5751174)
Yankee Clapper, #444:
Poor sad Gonfalon, imaginary protector of the twitterverse.

Better not to have responded at all.
   452. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 25, 2018 at 02:45 AM (#5751175)
As the band Madness sang, welcome to the House of Fun.


Looks like the Cook Report "Toss Up" list for Republican-held House seats will soon be getting one smaller, if the latest poll is an indication.

NJ-03 -- Kim (D) 57%, MacArthur (R) 30%


Two GOP-held "Toss Up" seats in Texas are much closer:

TX-32 -- Allred (D) 47%, Sessions (R) 42%
Sessions is an 8-term Representative. The district has been Republican since 1997.

TX-07 -- Fletcher (D) 47%, Culberson (R) 45%
Culberson is a 9-term Representative. The district has been Republican since 1967, when it was flipped by political newcomer George H.W. Bush.


The PA-07 seat has already been downgraded (or upgraded) to "Lean Democratic." It's one of the many districts where the Republican incumbent just up and quit. This particular incumbent actually left the seat totally vacant back in May, after he'd gotten a load of the new un-gerrymandered map. Anyhow, the latest poll has the Democrat ahead 52% to 39%. This seat has been Republican since 1986.


Cook rates the Republican CA-45 seat as a Toss Up. The Democrat was ahead by 46% to 42% in the last poll. This seat has been Republican since the day it was created and its first House election was held in 1982.


Another Republican-held Toss Up is in OH-01. The Republican, 11-term Rep. Steve Chabot, leads 46% to 39%. He won his last three elections by margins of 18%, 26% and 20%.
   453. Lassus Posted: September 25, 2018 at 06:31 AM (#5751180)
As the band Madness sang, welcome to the House of Fun.

From the same song, it seems like the "...welcome to the lion's den..." lyric may be more appropriate.
   454. . Posted: September 25, 2018 at 06:46 AM (#5751181)
Those proposing to do so for Ford need to do so because that's all she has, by every other measure she doesn't pass the credibility test.


It doesn't become any more true on the eleventy billionth repetition. She absolutely does pass the relevant test of presumptive believability, and there's really no sense in which she doesn't. Your assumption that a hesitation to throw herself full-bore into the DC circus somehow shows a lack of credibility is ... faulty.

There are other indicia of credibility, but if she was just making #### up, she never would have brought a third person into the room in her claim. And as the record has been further developed, the third person very much fits the type she outlined. Now, of course, we don't properly assign blame and make conclusions based simply on type, but it certainly helps the believability of her account.
   455. . Posted: September 25, 2018 at 06:55 AM (#5751182)
Their possible political motivation might be less of an issue if there was any corroboration, but there isn't.


Aaaannnnd ... this too doesn't become any more true on the eleventy billionth repetition. A classmate heard the dick whipout story shortly after it happened, which is exactly how these things happen in college. Indeed, it's perfectly plausible that Ramirez was wasted and someone else at the party told friends it was Kavanaugh, such that the classmate in the New Yorker heard what he heard and knew what he knew. There's no inconsistency there in the least. The account makes total sense.
   456. PreservedFish Posted: September 25, 2018 at 07:12 AM (#5751183)
Ray:

It probably seems that I'm at times taking both sides of the argument. But I don't see how to avoid that, in a situation where an accuser has made a credible claim but there remains much doubt about whether the person she's pointing the finger at is actually guilty. It's difficult for me to see how both camps (pro-Ford and pro-Kavanaugh, for shorthand) remain on one side of the fence or the other at all times.


I agree.
   457. PreservedFish Posted: September 25, 2018 at 07:48 AM (#5751184)
Also, swiping in to say that when I saw Nieps type out "An honorable woman wouldn't have made the accusation," I immediately assumed that there was either a tacit "if she hadn't actually been raped" or it was in some awkward way a parody post. I was surprised that so many had apeshit reactions. That supposed sentiment - that rape victims should just keep their mouths shut? - is monstrous, monstrous even for a man with the libertarian's innate love of human suffering. I know people like to argue on the internet, but is it really so wrong to make a charitable assumption about the intentions of an august member of the community?
   458. manchestermets Posted: September 25, 2018 at 08:04 AM (#5751185)
I know people like to argue on the internet, but is it really so wrong to make a charitable assumption about the intentions of an august member of the community?


Before or after he's handwaved putting your dick inches from an unsuspecting person's face because it doesn't meet the strict legal definition in New York of sexual assault?
   459. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: September 25, 2018 at 08:06 AM (#5751186)
And the two accusers aren't just random classmates, both have been reported to be very active politically in opposition to the current administration.

The Yankee Clapper loves what is known as the ‘weasel tense’. ‘Have been reported’? Cite, please.
   460. PreservedFish Posted: September 25, 2018 at 08:10 AM (#5751187)
"Raped women should just shut up."
"Pulling a dick out at a drunk teenage party where people are playing with dildos and #### isn't exactly assault."

I think there's a gaping chasm between those two statements. The first is, like, Taliban-level morality. The second is not. The second is subject to disagreement. The first is profoundly vile and hateful. If I were friends with someone that said the first thing, we wouldn't remain friends. The second? Whatever.
   461. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 25, 2018 at 08:25 AM (#5751190)
Has any pro-Kavanaugh witness gone on TV, but refused to make a statement to the Judiciary Committee? Has any pro-Kavanaugh witness refused to testify when scheduled, or demanded special treatment? It's no on both.

Has any anti-Kavanaugh witness other than Ford even been invited to testify before the Committee? So far that Committee hearing is proving harder to crash than Kavanaugh's Tit and Clit club at Yale.

I've been assured by Andy and others here that Ford will definitely testify and it was suggested that I'm just trying to undermine her by expressing any doubt. You guys still sure?

I've offered to put my money where my mouth is on that opinion, and suggested that you do the same. You still sure she won't appear?
   462. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 25, 2018 at 08:33 AM (#5751191)
"Pulling a dick out at a drunk teenage party where people are playing with dildos and #### isn't exactly assault."


I sort of agree with your sentiment, but this is not exactly what K. was accused of. He didn't just pull it out, what he was accused of is a bit worse (and more assaulty) than that.
   463. BDC Posted: September 25, 2018 at 08:59 AM (#5751196)
what kind of person thinks of a book as a "book by a non-white person" or a "book by a woman"?


Well, I guess if the book is Studies in the Syntax of the New Jersey Statutes, they don't :) But Between the World and Me by Ta-Nehisi Coates, yes, I think of that as a book by a non-white person. Are You Somebody? by Nuala O'Faolain is a book by a woman. Sometimes somebody writes a book premised on their identity. Sometimes there are "books by white men," like Frank McCourt's Angela's Ashes; but maybe we don't think of them as by white men because white men are the default human. (Sorry for using some Irish examples, it's what I'm teaching right now.)

Everyone has unique experiences and attitudes. But that doesn’t turn on their skin color


Meanwhile back on Planet Earth …
   464. . Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:02 AM (#5751197)
but maybe we don't think of them as by white men because white men are the default human.


Which is why they've spent most of history factionally and schismatically killing each other?
   465. JL72 Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:10 AM (#5751199)
You can't find a single thing [Kavanaugh] did wrong in the last 35 years.


Actually, it is pretty easy. He lied to Congress about receiving stolen Democratic strategy materials. That he received them and said nothing is bad enough. Lying about them is disqualifying.

And I say lying because the alternative explanation is that he is too stupid to realize what he had received. I have seen no evidence of that.

Edit - interesting how those supporting Kavanaugh keep ignoring this, as if there are no reasonable reasons to not vote for him.
   466. PreservedFish Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:19 AM (#5751202)
He didn't just pull it out, what he was accused of is a bit worse (and more assaulty) than that.


My opinion on the dick-waggling story is that it is by itself not enough to disqualify Kav. Sometimes dicks get pulled out at parties. And often, everyone's OK with it. I'm imagining a crowded, loud room, Kav dangles his junk near someone's face, turns around and high-fives his idiot buddies. It's embarrassingly stupid but it's not really creepy, pervy behavior. It crosses some line, certainly, but for me it's probably not the sexual assault line. It reminds me of the Franken boob grab - inappropriate, yes, and demeaning, but a big mistake was choosing the wrong target.

Its value is the weight it lends to the rape story, corroborating the view of Kav as a guy that would get drunk and do inappropriate things. So it's not nothing.
   467. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:23 AM (#5751204)
He didn't just pull it out, what he was accused of is a bit worse (and more assaulty) than that.

My opinion on the dick-waggling story is that it is by itself not enough to disqualify Kav. Sometimes dicks get pulled out at parties.


I didn't say it was. You characterized what he did as simply pulling out his dick and it was not just that. I initially assumed you were just short of short-handing it, but seriously dude.

I am not saying just that incident is disqualifying. However, what he did (and what David also minimized) is not just how you characterized it. It is funny how you piously asked why people were reacting like they were and in doing so showed exactly why people acted as they did.

When it appears like someone is deliberately characterizing something in a slanted fashion - as you did - the reflexive action is to go the other way. Which is exactly what happened with David and the people who overreacted to him.
   468. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:26 AM (#5751206)
My opinion on the dick-waggling story is that it is by itself not enough to disqualify Kav. Sometimes dicks get pulled out at parties. And often, everyone's OK with it. I'm imagining a crowded, loud room, Kav dangles his junk near someone's face, turns around and high-fives his idiot buddies. It's embarrassingly stupid but it's not really creepy, pervy behavior. It reminds me of the Franken boob grab - inappropriate, yes, and demeaning, but a big mistake was choosing the wrong target.

So can we say it was a little bit nutty, a little bit slutty?

   469. PreservedFish Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:36 AM (#5751209)
I thought I'd answer these for myself, just because it's 9:23 and I'm already procrastinating.

What's the last book you read by a female author?

I'm really bad at this, 90% of the books I read are written by men, and indeed recently I've been reading a lot of macho bullshit with handsome swaggery heroes that cause women to drop their panties in an instant. In the last month I listened to "The Nature Fix," which is about how going outdoors is great for your well-being. This is a pop-science book that might well have been written by a man. The last book I read that obviously had a female perspective was "Wild," the Oprah's book club pick that inspired the Reese Witherspoon movie.

What's the last book you read by a non-white person?

V.S. Naipaul's "An Area of Darkness," also in the last month.

When did you last cry and why?

Didn't we have a whole epic thread on this once? It's been well over a decade since I last had a real cry (that is, tears streaming down cheeks), and undoubtedly it was in some fight I was having with my then-girlfriend, now wife. Those were more emotional days.
   470. perros Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:39 AM (#5751212)
inappropriate, yes, and demeaning, but a big mistake was choosing the wrong target


So if I slap you in the face with my schlong, we okay?

As we've discussed, all the discussions here come down to where you stand on the hierarchy of privilege. A few are born pitchers, most catch the devil's hindmost.
   471. PreservedFish Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:40 AM (#5751214)
Mouse, is "Kav dangles his junk near someone's face" inaccurate? I honestly am not sure.
   472. perros Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5751216)
After I turned off the NYT podcast with Douthat justifying the doppelganger theory, it occurred to me I've seen nobody write about the Catholic influence in the efforts to overturn Roe. There'd be no pro-life movement without the RCC's involvement.
   473. PreservedFish Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5751217)
So if I slap you in the face with my schlong, we okay?


I certainly wouldn't appreciate it very much.

As we've discussed, all the discussions here come down to where you stand on the hierarchy of privilege.


There's no question that Kav's silver spoon upbringing plays a role in all of this. No dispute here. People like Kav run our country. And yes, it's disgusting. But his arrogance as a teen, decades ago ... I mean, that was a long time ago.
   474. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5751218)
Mouse, is "Kav dangles his junk near someone's face" inaccurate? I honestly am not sure.


I didn't say it was. I was speaking about your #460 and not #466. In terms of how much something is like assault I think there is a huge difference between pulling it out and pulling it out and putting it in someone's face.

As to the rest I think we mostly agree, but I didn't like #460 much.
   475. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:48 AM (#5751220)
So if I slap you in the face with my schlong, we okay?


These pampered fancy lads are so lucky there aren’t packs of aggressive bull queers who would treat them like they think it’s acceptable to treat women.
   476. PreservedFish Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:49 AM (#5751221)
When it appears like someone is deliberately characterizing something in a slanted fashion - as you did - the reflexive action is to go the other way. Which is exactly what happened with David and the people who overreacted to him.


This shouldn't be the reflexive action. It's what makes debates here get shrill and sanctimonious within just a few comments. If someone's being slanted, call them on it. Don't respond by getting all slanty yourself.
   477. . Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:49 AM (#5751222)
What's the last book you read by a female author?


Just started Jill Lepore's one volume history of the US. Looks like last before that was "A Woman in Berlin" a couple months ago, and before that Hannah Arendt on Eichmann in 1Q 2018. Last novel looks to have been Lionel Shriver's "The Mandibles."

What's the last book you read by a non-white person?


Just started Jamel Brinkley's "A Lucky Man."

When did you last cry and why?


At the end of The Rider, one of 2018's best films to date. Poignancy.



   478. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:52 AM (#5751224)
Don't respond by getting all slanty yourself.


Racist.
   479. perros Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:54 AM (#5751226)
But his arrogance as a teen, decades ago ... I mean, that was a long time ago.


He's the same guy his entire career, including the eye candy clerks. These people are not fit to rule. If confirmed -- and he will be confirmed short of a sex tape -- we'll have an accused frat boy rapist judging the rest of us. I realize we've had these men in charge all along, the difference is the power brokers don't pretend to care this time, and will plough that field and us along with it moving forward.

Forget decline, the collapse of legitimate political authority is upon us.
   480. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:55 AM (#5751227)
This shouldn't be the reflexive action. It's what makes debates here get shrill and sanctimonious within just a few comments. If someone's being slanted, call them on it. Don't respond by getting all slanty yourself.


Which I tried to do, but it is difficult online. Without face-to-face interactions much less information is conveyed. It makes the words harder to accurately place in terms of tone and such (on both sides) and makes escalation (on both sides) much more likely.

You are also more ... flexible than David, and so calling you on something and then having a dialogue is much easier with you than him. For example we have not yet gotten bogged down in parsing the exact meaning of any of the words we have used and dissected them to death.

And no I am not defending people who obviously overreacted to David (who, BTW, IMO overreacted the other way in his reflexive and contrarian statements), mostly just explaining what I think happened.
   481. dlf Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:55 AM (#5751228)
What's the last book you read by a female author?


"Record of a Space Born Few" by Becky Chambers. Finished it last weekend. Mediocre scifi. About a month back, I read Jane Levy's biography of Sandy Koufax.

What's the last book you read by a non-white person?


I'm re-reading "I was right on time" by Buck O'Neil now. I gave up half-way through the third book of NK Jemisin's "Broken Earth" trilogy about a month ago. Hugo winning scifi author but book 3 was all over the place. I had read books 1 and 2 last year. I was years since I read it, but recently saw the touring company show of Alice Walker's The Color Purple.

When did you last cry and why?


Shortly after dropping my youngest off at college last month.
   482. . Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:57 AM (#5751230)
As we've discussed, all the discussions here come down to where you stand on the hierarchy of privilege. A few are born pitchers, most catch the devil's hindmost.


No, this isn't even close to true and borders on delusional. There is no "hierarchy of privilege" in the United States and indeed no US child is shut out from Brett Kavanaugh's career path. Someone like Kavanaugh has some structural advantages to be sure, but if you look at the Georgetown Prep yearbook from his HS years, you'll find a lot of people who have had merely meh careers and lives. My high school was second-rate at best, but that was still no obstacle to my skills eventually allowing me to surpass most of the G'Town Prep class of the relevant era.
   483. BrianBrianson Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:59 AM (#5751231)
What's the last book you read by a female author?


I read The Gruffalo, Stickman, Mon Petite Bou de Chou, Zog, five to ten times a week (each).

What's the last book you read by a non-white person?


This is hard to know. You name (usually) gives away your sex. It doesn't always give away your race. Some of the chapters in The Handbook of Exoplanets are co-authored by people with what I'd call obviously non-white names (and at least some of them I know and those guesses are right). I've read a few chapters over the last ~month.

When did you last cry and why?


I got kicked in the eye on sunday.
   484. perros Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:59 AM (#5751232)
I'm angry, but pretty resigned. The story in the arctic methane release I linked from y'day's WaPo is must reading, for we're in for accelerated climate change that is nearly impossible to imagine once the permafrost is gone.
   485. PreservedFish Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:59 AM (#5751233)
I realize we've had these men in charge all along, the difference is the power brokers don't pretend to care this time, and will plough that field and us along with it moving forward.

Forget decline, the collapse of legitimate political authority is upon us.


Did they once pretend to care? The ascendance of an entitled elite to a position of power is the most commonplace imaginable thing. I feel like it would be easy for you to see this whole controversy as a good thing - evidence of progress, even if he's confirmed. Even just a few years ago a guy like Kav might have flown through without any of this turbulence.
   486. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:01 AM (#5751234)
These people are not fit to rule.


I will take overgeneralization and overreaction for $100.

Forget decline, the collapse of legitimate political authority is upon us.


Um ... no. Just because we talk about something more, because t is exposed to daylight, doesn't mean it suddenly sprang into being. Put another way for legitimate political authority to be presenting collapsing now it would have had to be in much better shape at some point. Please tell me about this once glorious past, when there was all this legitimate political authority and we were "ruled" by paragons.
   487. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:03 AM (#5751235)
I would not be shocked if the allegations are true. But there's a difference between that and meeting a reasonable standard of evidence for claims such as these.


Ray, this is you doing that thing where you know what is right, but it puts you out of step with what the right-wing wants, so you create excessive "but then" clauses to edge your way away from it. Because making sure you're not lining up with "liberals" is more important to you than supporting the obviously good and right thing.

We are not debating whether or not we should send Brett Kavanaugh to prison on the basis of Ford and Ramirez' testimony. If we were, your standard of evidence and benefit of doubt would be far more reasonable. But we're not. We're debating whether or not Brett Kavanaugh should be promoted to the highest bench in the land. This isn't a trial. It's a job interview. We don't need legal standards of guilt to say no to the applicant.
   488. Lassus Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:03 AM (#5751236)
When did you last cry and when?
Shortly after dropping my youngest off at college last month.


That is a lot of extra chores now.
   489. Lassus Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:05 AM (#5751239)
Someone like Kavanaugh has some structural advantages to be sure, but if you look at the Georgetown Prep yearbook from his HS years, you'll find a lot of people who have had merely meh careers and lives.

In case you you were concerned that blind squirrel was going to get fat on the nut he found earlier.
   490. . Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:05 AM (#5751240)
The "reasonable standard of evidence" here is the standard of "evidence" for a job interview.
   491. perros Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:06 AM (#5751241)
was still no obstacle to my skills eventually allowing me to surpass most of the G'Town Prep class of the relevant era.


There is a courtier class open to a relatively few who pass muster with the elites, but that will shrink nearly as rapidly as the ice going forward. The US is not the upwardly mobile society we believe it to be.... we as in people who have succeeded in the current setup.

Also, the G'town Preppers can lead as mediocre a life as they please with daddy's money.
   492. . Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:06 AM (#5751242)
In case you thought the blind squirrel was going to get fat on the nut he found earlier.


You didn't really think I was going to deviate from my consistent facts and empiricism philosophy and subscribe whole hog to your nutty ideology, did you?
   493. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:09 AM (#5751243)
These people are not fit to rule.


This is not news for a party who elected Donald Trump.

If confirmed -- and he will be confirmed short of a sex tape -- we'll have an accused frat boy rapist judging the rest of us.


I'm truly interested in how Kagan, Sotomayor and RBG will work with him, assuming he's shoved through by the Party of Rape.
   494. Ishmael Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:10 AM (#5751244)
Just started Jill Lepore's one volume history of the US. Looks like last before that was "A Woman in Berlin" a couple months ago, and before that Hannah Arendt on Eichmann in 1Q 2018. Last novel looks to have been Lionel Shriver's "The Mandibles."

What did you make of "A Woman in Berlin", SBB?
   495. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:10 AM (#5751245)
What's the last book you read by a female author?


The book I was reading last night(Burn Bright by Patricia Briggs). And the book before that.

What's the last book you read by a non-white person?


The "book before that" is Barracoon: The Story of the Last "Black Cargo" (actually I am alternating, because Barracoon is to depressing to just read straight through). That book is written by an African American women about the last slave ship from Africa and one of the people taken from African to the US.

Interesting story actually, he was taken in 1859, was a slave during the Civil War and then was freed and lived his life after in the South. The author found him and interviewed him over a period of time, and then the resulting book was not published for literally decades, until just this year.

When did you last cry and why?


Tear up? I tear up at the drop of a hat, usually at things that are patriotic or whatever. I am a true sap (bleeding heart, go figure). Actual tears leaving my eyes? No clue, it was borderline when my dog died, but definite tears visible to other people? Likely before I was a teenager.

What do I win?
   496. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:10 AM (#5751246)
Someone like Kavanaugh has some structural advantages to be sure, but if you look at the Georgetown Prep yearbook from his HS years, you'll find a lot of people who have had merely meh careers and lives. My high school was second-rate at best, but that was still no obstacle to my skills eventually allowing me to surpass most of the G'Town Prep class of the relevant era.


Maybe Fake Lawyering wasn’t an area of particular attraction for that group. Who can say.
   497. BDC Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:11 AM (#5751247)
Last book by a woman writer, Edith Bruck's Lettera alla Madre, or maybe it was Marina Carr's play By the Bog of Cats. I read stuff concurrently and "last" is hard to say unless I write about the book. I taught a short story by Maria Edgeworth last week.

Last non-white author, a couple of crime novels by Keigo Higashino.

Although, along the lines of "who thinks of a book," I consume tons of these popular-science titles about animals, plants, geology, astronomy, etc. These are truly not written from any very strong identity position. A lot of the writers have very Anglo names, but it's anyone's guess sometimes.

Last cry: a couple of years ago when I left a seafood paella on the counter overnight instead of putting it in the fridge. I think I reported that here :-D
   498. . Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:11 AM (#5751248)
There is a courtier class open to a relatively few who pass muster with the elites


No, there isn't. And I've been in that world. It doesn't seem like you have been.

The US is not the upwardly mobile society we believe it to be.... we as in people who have succeeded in the current setup.


It's neither as upwardly mobile as advertised, as upwardly mobile as it should be, or as upwardly mobile as it used to be. It is, however, essentially a fair meritocracy based primarily on brains and academic record. There are some exceptions, of course, and drive/ambition play a big part but in general that's our society. It's the furthest thing imaginable from a closed hierarchical society based on birth class and birthright.

The main problem with meritocracy of course is that it says to people who don't really make much of themselves that that set of affairs reflects upon their personal merit. That's not such a good message and as I've said many times, it isn't the best way to organize a society.
   499. perros Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:13 AM (#5751249)
The ascendance of an entitled elite to a position of power is the most commonplace imaginable thing.


Admittedly Renoir's Rules of the Game could not hold my attention, but note the concession above. We had our little Jefferson discussion not long ago. The difference is the Jeffersons -- even the John McCains -- did something in the service of others, made some gesture towards the common welfare.

Even if you lop off Trump's head, the GOP absolutely doesn't give a #### now.
   500. . Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:13 AM (#5751250)
What did you make of "A Woman in Berlin", SBB?


Main lesson is that people make do in wartime and that wartime changes mores. I guess it also demonstrates the thin reed upon which civilization rests. There's more to say about it, but that's the quick association/drive by version.
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