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Monday, January 22, 2018

OTP 22 January 2018: What the Baseball Hall of Fame can teach us about elections

Would ballot-box behavior change if people knew more precisely how their fellow citizens planned to vote?

It’s a question that still haunts Democrats as they continue staring daggers at their friends who went third party in November 2016. But it’s also an experiment being carried out in real time by the Baseball Writers Association of America as members prepare to elect at least three and as many as five retired greats to the Hall of Fame later this

The association’s complicated voting rules work like this: Eligible players need 75 percent of the vote to win election. Those receiving less than 5 percent get kicked off the ballot; those between rejection and enshrinement can stay on the ballot for up to 10 years. And voters can support up to 10 candidates.

 

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 08:44 AM | 4563 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, politics

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   1. BDC Posted: January 22, 2018 at 11:32 AM (#5610857)
Anyway, I think the basic problem in Congress right now is that the Republicans have an extremely tenuous majority and are just finding it hard to enact their agenda smoothly. That, and having a President who seems mighty unclear on the concept of "agenda."

Both parties will blame the other, but at the end of the day, when you hold one chamber 51-49, your whip ability has to be dominatrix-level to consistently enact a coherent policy. The obvious thing would be for the Republican leadership to seek enough concessions to peel off a fair number of Democrats, which as the most recent vote shows could clearly be done; but that runs afoul of the GOP hardliners. (The inverse might well apply if the Democrats held the 51-49 edge and the White House, of course; they're no saints or geniuses either.) It's just not a very clear-cut majority.
   2. Zonk's Timely Epoch Posted: January 22, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5610859)
We should open things with another poll!

ABC/Wapo puts Trump at 36%

Oh and -

Forty-eight percent of voters think Trump is mentally stable, versus the 47 percent of voters who think he is not.
   3. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 22, 2018 at 11:37 AM (#5610862)
I just got a call from an examining attorney at the USPTO, so I guess the government isn't all that shut down.
   4. Greg K Posted: January 22, 2018 at 11:38 AM (#5610864)
Anyway, I think the basic problem in Congress right now is that the Republicans have an extremely tenuous majority and are just finding it hard to enact their agenda smoothly. That, and having a President who seems mighty unclear on the concept of "agenda."

Sounds like the British parliament right now.
   5. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5610866)
when you hold one chamber 51-49, your whip ability has to be dominatrix-level to consistently enact a coherent policy


Fetishizing self-interest as an institutional value doesn't make it any easier to whip, either. Hard to convince your guys to take one for the team when you're the party of \"#### You, I Got Mine".
   6. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5610867)
Sounds like the British parliament right now.

Except with far worse grammar.
   7. Zonk's Timely Epoch Posted: January 22, 2018 at 11:50 AM (#5610873)
Anyway, I think the basic problem in Congress right now is that the Republicans have an extremely tenuous majority and are just finding it hard to enact their agenda smoothly. That, and having a President who seems mighty unclear on the concept of "agenda."


I think a more basic problem is that the roles are reversed -- you have the party of anti-government pleading to reopen the government while the party of pro-government doesn't seem especially interested in caving.

Hey - objectively, in the short-term - I think the Democrats are on the losing end of this. But it's a short-term losing end with longer term implications that make it worthwhile, I think.

As noted in last week's thread - I'm just loving the GOP selling the importance of government and wringing their hands over the loss of government-sponsored healthcare for kids and poor families. There's also the master dealmaker essentially getting whacked by both Democrats AND more than a few Republicans for making things harder, not easier - the very essence of a NON-dealmaker.

I think the longer this drags on, there's also the basic matter that this would be the 4th short-term CR... and what's gonna be different when the next 30 day/3 week/whatever epoch is up?

Politics aside - short-term and long-term - I said last week I would have voted for cloture... probably not for the CR itself - but strictly from a good governance standpoint, I don't particularly like going about things this way.

Still, I'm content to just let the GOP keep posting 24 news cycle 'wins' - meaningless as they'll be a month from now. I think there's more long-term value in the damage it does to Trump coupled with, again - loving the GOP rally the base for things like government and CHIP.
   8. zenbitz Posted: January 22, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5610874)
Sorry can't post now, I have to build a consortium-wide mailing list to cover the non functional NIH one. #thestruggleisreal
   9. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:14 PM (#5610891)
I just got a call from an examining attorney at the USPTO, so I guess the government isn't all that shut down.

The Patent & Trademark Office is largely funded by the filing fees it charges, rather than appropriated funds.
   10. tshipman Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5610897)
In the files of "not a good look":

President Trump reportedly uses an accent to imitate Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Senior administration officials told The Washington Post that Trump has been known to “affect an Indian accent” to quote Modi, who last year condemned U.S. activity in Afghanistan during a private meeting with Trump.

   11. Traderdave Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:28 PM (#5610902)
This bond guy has an equity question. When does GE become a buy?


I sold mine early '16 at 29ish. I had bought them cheap and while it wasn't a world beater, it was an acceptable return.

Thinking of when to get back in. Not so much a price target (lots of chatter that it's a buy at 15 or at 12, etc) but rather what must occur to make it time to go bottom feeding?

Cut the dividend to zero? Recognize Alstom impairment? New CEO? Final exit from GECC/GNW? (though that might take many years)

Or is there not a single act that would trigger a buy?


   12. Zonk's Timely Epoch Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:29 PM (#5610903)
In the files of "not a good look":


For someone so scatterbrained and unable to focus, it's pretty impressive how Trump has pretty much managed to find ways to insult everyone that isn't an old white guy in such a thorough and consistent manner.

   13. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:31 PM (#5610906)
For someone so scatterbrained and unable to focus, it's pretty impressive how Trump has pretty much managed to find ways to insult everyone that isn't an old white guy in such a thorough and consistent manner.

Don't sell him short - he's definitely also insulted some old white guys. McCain for one...is Jeb old enough to qualify?
   14. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:38 PM (#5610913)
Schumer caves, the filibuster will be history, and the government will re-open tomorrow. (Sorry, David!)

#WompWomp
   15. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5610916)
Keeping clapping for your white nationalist friends Jason.
   16. Zonk's Timely Epoch Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5610917)
Don't sell him short - he's definitely also insulted some old white guys. McCain for one...is Jeb old enough to qualify?


By golly, you're right.

I don't want to alarm anyone, but the President just might be a thoroughly disagreeable ####### top to bottom.
   17. dlf Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:45 PM (#5610920)
#11 - I've actually been having much the same thoughts and, with as much as the market has run up, think that GE is a decent value play based on the steps Flannery has already taken in cutting the dividend and consolidating operations into fewer core services (power, healthcare, air, etc.). Of course, my bet there would be a little more than a bottle of bourbon, even a bit more than a bottle of Pappy van W. ...
   18. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:45 PM (#5610921)

Schumer caves, the filibuster will be history, and the government will re-open tomorrow. (Sorry, David!)
So you're saying it's over? It's always been over?
   19. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:48 PM (#5610923)
Schumer caves, the filibuster will be history, and the government will re-open tomorrow. (Sorry, David!)

And now we'll see whether McConnell will add to his growing list of broken promises.
   20. Zonk's Timely Epoch Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:49 PM (#5610925)
I congratulate my GOP friends on their epic legislative victory...

I'm sure passage of their 4th short-term CR to set the stage for a 5th showdown in a month will go down in the annals of uni-party federal control. Truly, an example of what the Republican party can accomplish when handed the levers of power!
   21. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:52 PM (#5610927)
Schumer caves, the filibuster will be history, and the government will re-open tomorrow. (Sorry, David!)
BTW, I hope you mean that the filibuster of the CR, not the filibuster overall.
   22. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5610928)
I congratulate my GOP friends on their epic legislative victory...

I'm sure passage of their 4th short-term CR to set the stage for a 5th showdown in a month will go down in the annals of uni-party federal control. Truly, an example of what the Republican party can accomplish when handed the levers of power!
Snark fails to conceal that the other day you guys were sure that the Republicans would take all the blame for the shutdown, and that the Democrats were thus morally and strategically justified in saying #### You to McConnell. But it turned out that even the media couldn't twist themselves enough to blame a Democratic filibuster on Republicans, and Democrats read the mood very differently than you guys did.
   23. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5610930)
I'm sure passage of their 4th short-term CR to set the stage for a 5th showdown in a month will go down in the annals of uni-party federal control. Truly, an example of what the Republican party can accomplish when handed the levers of power!


Yeah, it is unclear what is being celebrated here. Convincing the party that values the government and wants it to help people to reopen the government? Um ... congrats? So what did the GOP win other than the opportunity for the Turtle to betray a promise?
   24. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:55 PM (#5610931)
I congratulate my GOP friends on their epic legislative victory...

I'm sure passage of their 4th short-term CR to set the stage for a 5th showdown in a month will go down in the annals of uni-party federal control. Truly, an example of what the Republican party can accomplish when handed the levers of power!
Concession accepted. But don't fret, zonkie: I'm sure your pals will come up with some other way to take attention away from the tax reform dividend.
   25. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:55 PM (#5610932)
Snark fails to conceal that the other day you guys were sure that the Republicans would take all the blame for the shutdown

Was this really "would" as opposed to "should"?
   26. Greg K Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:56 PM (#5610933)
I could be wrong, the technical details of Congress always befuddle me entirely, but I read the celebration in terms of seeing this as evidence that the Democrats thought the voters would blame them. In other words, an expression of weakness.
   27. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5610934)

Was this really "would" as opposed to "should"?
Obviously the lefty circle jerk here isn't really a hive mind, so I'm sure there was some disagreement, but Bitter Mouse in particular was quite vocal about it being "would."
   28. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5610935)
Snark fails to conceal that the other day you guys were sure that the Republicans would take all the blame for the shutdown, and that the Democrats were thus morally and strategically justified in saying #### You to McConnell. But it turned out that even the media couldn't twist themselves enough to blame a Democratic filibuster on Republicans, and Democrats read the mood very differently than you guys did.
Bingo.
   29. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5610936)
Snark fails to conceal that the other day you guys were sure that the Republicans would take all the blame for the shutdown, and that the Democrats were thus morally and strategically justified in saying #### You to McConnell.


Um ... dude. The two sides came to an agreement. You can say one side of the other is the "winner" in the agreement, but coming to an agreement and reopening the government is not an automatic lose for Democrats. Democrats don't want the government shut down forever, so what matters are the terms of the agreement.

As I said long ago - and you seemingly didn't get - this is and always was about negotiating and leverage. Everyone knew then (I did anyway) the government shutdown - if it even happened - would be short term. And - shocker! - it looks to have been very short term.

So what exactly are you crowing about?
   30. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 12:58 PM (#5610937)
Concession accepted.

I like how Schumer being an actual adult is something to be derided by the GOP, as they wouldn't know an adult in their party unless they were being groped by one.

Also, I agree with the erstwhile kingmaker in #26
   31. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5610939)
Matt Viser, Boston Globe:
Democrats have managed to accede to Republican demands, demoralize their energized base, give a disengaged president a win, and look like they held a meaningless three day government shutdown — all at once.
Bring on the snark, zonkie!
   32. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5610940)
I could be wrong, the technical details of Congress always befuddle me entirely, but I read the celebration in terms of seeing this as evidence that the Democrats thought the voters would blame them. In other words, an expression of weakness.


Well the Democrats are in a minority, so they are in a position of weakness. But still, coming to an agreement is not automatically weak. If the terms are crap it is weak, if the terms are good then it is not. So framing this as "Shutdown over X (either party) loses" is dumb.

Lay out an argument why one side or the other won or lost based on the agreement and not on the fact the two sides agreed to something. Agreement and compromise are not losing. Honest.

Note: Read the above carefully. I am not saying one side or the other won or lost. Just laying out the parameters for what a loss or victory should be judged on.

EDIT: #31 is closer, but sadly lacking any logic, evidence or anything substantive. So a typical JE post, sadly.
   33. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:01 PM (#5610941)
Schumer caves, the filibuster will be history, and the government will re-open tomorrow.


Assuming Trump doesn't veto it.
   34. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5610943)
Bring on the snark, zonkie!

No need. The assholes won because they were assholes. I'm sure you're proud as a new papa, Mr. Never.
   35. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5610946)
No need. The ######## won because they were ########. I'm sure you're proud as a new papa, Mr. Never.
If a battle can't be won, don't fight it. (And yeah, I did read a fortune cookie once.)
   36. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5610947)
This is so not what would have happened if Josh Lyman were involved.
   37. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5610948)
The shutdown blame game was always going to be a short term issue and at the end of the day the Dems can't say they won't vote for cloture forever for 700,000 illegal immigrants. On top of all that you're going to have roughly half the country think the Dems are in the right and half think they are in the wrong and at the end of the day roughly half the voters are going to vote for you and half against regardless of what happens here.

As others mentioned it appears that CHIP will be funded for years, the President looked like a buffoon, again, and the Dems can say to their base that the GOP is a bunch no good non-trustworthy racists when they eventually renege on passing DACA legislation that will satisfy the minorities in this country. This mess was largely Trump's making. He didn't have to throw DACA into the mix but he did and that is something that is going to fire up the base regardless of whether or not a budget gets passed.
   38. tshipman Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5610949)
I don't see how there's this big win for Republicans. They get the 3 week extension. If they don't pony up, then the government shuts down again.
   39. Ray (CTL) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5610950)
I just got a call from an examining attorney at the USPTO, so I guess the government isn't all that shut down.


The USPTO has access to prior year fee collections. Thus it can remain fully optional for the time being on the basis of those fees, and can remain so for a few weeks.

But even if the rubber hits the road and those funds are exhausted the USPTO won't completely shut down; that would wreak havoc on the patents and trademarks system. A small staff would continue to work to accept new applications and maintain IT infrastructure.

EDIT: I guess they've worked something out making this point moot.
   40. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5610951)
F#%king up Trump's Mar-A-Lago anniversary party and saving the taxpayers another $3 million in golf fees is nearly as epochal a political victory as kicking the funding can all the way to Lincoln's birthday.
   41. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5610952)
EDIT: #31 is closer, but sadly lacking any logic, evidence or anything substantive. So a typical JE post, sadly.
Awwwwwwww, and this comes from the dude whose approach to OTP is, "I don't know who Mitch McConnell is and don't care who he is, but listen to me, I know what I'm talking about!"
   42. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5610953)
Um ... dude. The two sides came to an agreement.
Um... dude. The Dems folded. The Dems know the Dems folded, the Republicans know the Dems folded, you know the Dems folded, everyone knows the Dems folded..
You can say one side of the other is the "winner" in the agreement, but coming to an agreement and reopening the government is not an automatic lose for Democrats. Democrats don't want the government shut down forever, so what matters are the terms of the agreement.
The agreement is the one the Democrats rejected before: vote on the CR now, vote on DACA later. You and Dems sneered at that, saying that they have no reason to trust that there would be a DACA vote later, and that they were therefore right to insist on DACA being in the CR.


So what exactly are you crowing about?
You being wrong, of course. What else is there to crow about in the world?
   43. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5610954)
If a battle can't be won, don't fight it. (And yeah, I did read a fortune cookie once.)

And thankfully our founding fathers never had Chinese food because we wouldn't be the United States of America with this thinking.
   44. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5610955)
That angry old white guys shouting at the dying of their youthful light will ruin it for everyone else? Yeah. Seems legit.
   45. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5610956)
If a battle can't be won, don't fight it. (And yeah, I did read a fortune cookie once.)

I said the Dems were idiots on this days ago, before the shutdown. The Dems being idiots doesn't actually make the GOP decent humans.

I'm sure there are jobs available in the White House, Jason, lots of turnover. Good luck.
   46. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5610957)
I don't see how there's this big win for Republicans.
You're right, shipman, it's not a big win for Republicans. It's not even a yuge loss for Democrats. But it's certainly an embarrassment for Schumer and Durbin.
   47. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:11 PM (#5610959)
I guarantee you there's no problem with the size of Schumer and Durbin's caucus, I guarantee.
   48. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:12 PM (#5610960)
Jason’s surgically opened up a second throat for trump at this point.
   49. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5610961)
But it's certainly an embarrassment for Schumer and Durbin.

It's probably not as bad as you think, then, as nobody (relatively) outside the beltway has any idea who the fuck Durbin even is.
   50. Ray (CTL) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5610962)
The optics of the Dems shutting down the government over the interests of illegal aliens were apparently bad enough for even the Democrats to notice.
   51. Greg K Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5610963)

Also, I agree with the erstwhile kingmaker in #26

I'm slowly catching up the The Crown. The episode I saw last night (about Lord Altrincham's reforms) had a bit of a light-hearted moment when some guy punched Altrincham in the face for criticizing the Queen. Elizabeth and the Queen Mother have a "jolly good show" when they hear of it, only to nervously adjust their collars when it turns out that the assailant is a member of a fascist/racist political organization.

The bit can't help but bring to mind the issue of being a bit uncomfortable with who your political bed fellows are...though I imagine the connection is more directly related to Jo Cox than anything in American politics.

It's interesting how the show attempts to thread the needle of showing a Monarchy in need of modernization without being too critical of Elizabeth herself. The horribly out condescending and out of touch speech that she gave, which started Altrincham's attacks is entirely blamed on a subordinate (Elizabeth just read what was handed to her). And she ends up proving to be a remarkably open to and tolerant of Altrincham's ideas, which in the end saves the day. Next up appears to be her dealing with the Nazi sympathizers in her family, so we'll see how compromised she gets there.

The show does rely a bit too much on the people surrounding Elizabeth being out of touch and backwards, allowing her adaptability to shine through. I do worry it lets her off the hook a few times too many though.
   52. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5610964)
Um... dude. The Dems folded. The Dems know the Dems folded, the Republicans know the Dems folded, you know the Dems folded, everyone knows the Dems folded..

To the tune of kicking the can down the road three weeks. The horror. The GOP has not escaped this mess. They have to redo this all over again next month. What a sweeping victory. It's Wellington at Waterloo all over again.


The agreement is the one the Democrats rejected before: vote on the CR now, vote on DACA later. You and Dems sneered at that, saying that they have no reason to trust that there would be a DACA vote later, and that they were therefore right to insist on DACA being in the CR.

And now those within the party and outside of it that care about DACA will know that the Dems are willing to fight for their views and take a hit for it while the GOP is the party that doesn't mind being racist. The war isn't over the budget but over the control of the government. This was not a battle the Dems could win but they could certainly show people they were serious about protecting a group of people that a lot of people want protected.
   53. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5610965)
As I predicted, the shut down would be over by EOB Monday.

Democrats won by satisfying their base, assuming their is a vote on DACA soon. They also ruined DJT's anniversary party by forcing its cancellation, which is a small moral victory. The shutdown itself was too inconsequential for most people to notice, let alone care (it helped that it was mostly over a weekend). I don't think it was much of a victory, but if you have to determine a winner, it was the Democrats who came out ahead.

And, as Zonk noted, all this bill does was kick the down the road for several weeks. There are still fundamental disagreements both within the GOP and of course between the two parties as to what appropriate funding levels are. The inevitable result is going to be a reluctant agreement to maintain current funding levels for another year, so they might as well just vote to pass that CR and then be done with it until after the midterms.

Finally, DJT was exposed again as someone who brings nothing to the table other than chaos. For the next round of negotiations (on both the next CR and DACA), they should just take away his cellphone and send him down to Florida to play golf so as to not interject anymore difficulty into a delicate process. His total incompetence made a difficult situation even worse.
   54. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5610966)
Jason dOesnt care about being a decent human being. He cares about the news cycle for his gop lords and masters. He’s a good little Vichy sympathizer.
   55. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5610967)
Um ... dude. The two sides came to an agreement.

I see Bitter Mouse is doing his Black Knight imitation again: "All right, we'll call it a draw."
   56. Traderdave Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5610968)
#11 - I've actually been having much the same thoughts and, with as much as the market has run up, think that GE is a decent value play based on the steps Flannery has already taken in cutting the dividend and consolidating operations into fewer core services (power, healthcare, air, etc.). Of course, my bet there would be a little more than a bottle of bourbon, even a bit more than a bottle of Pappy van W. ...


I didn't precisely predict the recent insurance related hit but the opacity of the remaining liabilities of finance divisions was one factor in my getting out. Management quality was another. Even with Immelt out, the bulk of GE's senior people are veterans of the Welch regime, back when Capital was a nice little piggy bank to tap every quarter to "massage" earnings. It takes more than a new captain, it also takes a lot of new chiefs & sailors to turn around such a large ship.

The spinoff/sum of parts angle is very interesting but such things work much better when done from strength rather than weakness.

OTOH, the willingness to confront the insurance liabilities is a positive.



And as great as Pappy is, it is insanely overrated. If you're gonna pay up, the only one worth it is the 12. The age fetishists have sent the 15 and 23 year old to stupid heights, and those whiskeys are overaged. They taste like you're licking the barrel instead of sipping the whiskey. The 12 drinks the best and is less stupidly inflated.
   57. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:16 PM (#5610969)
To the tune of kicking the can down the road three weeks. The horror.
See #31. They didn't need to shut down the government to continue negotiating DACA.
   58. Zonk's Timely Epoch Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:16 PM (#5610971)
Snark fails to conceal that the other day you guys were sure that the Republicans would take all the blame for the shutdown, and that the Democrats were thus morally and strategically justified in saying #### You to McConnell. But it turned out that even the media couldn't twist themselves enough to blame a Democratic filibuster on Republicans, and Democrats read the mood very differently than you guys did.


I think I've pretty consistently said the Dems were in a short-term bad position, pooh-poohing the effect of the fleeting 24 hour news cycle wins. When you're the party that believes government works and likewise supports government-sponsored health insurance, blocking this CR was never going to be a long-term tenable position. And sure - it didn't help much that the Dems really didn't seem to have much a messenging plan (hey - say there really wasn't a good one to be found, if you like).

I very much STILL maintain the #### you McConnell attitude... and you know as well as I do we're going to be right back here in three weeks anyway. Of course, those McConnell promises seem to be adding up rather quickly, don't they? Doesn't Susan Collins still have tax bill promises still owed to her?

By all means, though.... let's get Trump back in the spotlight. Between porn star tales and the new "Hey look at me! I'm Apu!" out this morning -- it's probably a bad long-term strategy to keep Trump out of the center of attention anyway.
   59. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5610972)
#53 seems accurate, although I do think it is possible that liberals are going to be more pissed at the Dems (for caving) than they should be. (Although that might primarily be my Vassar feed.)
   60. tshipman Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5610973)
Yeah, I really don't get it.

CHIP gets extended for 6 years, Ds get a vote on DACA.

If there is no vote on DACA in 3 weeks, government just shuts down again, but this time without risking CHIP. Seems better to me.
   61. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5610974)
See #31. They didn't need to shut down the government to continue negotiating DACA.

See the freaking post you're quoting from. The Dems got to make hay about DACA.

This is all largely meaningless. Come November there are going to be no great amount of people voting for or against a party because of what happened here since Friday. This is simply 24 hour news cycle laundry cheering. It's people who think their interests and hobbies have far greater import than they actually do.
   62. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5610976)
As I predicted, the shut down would be over by EOB Monday.

Democrats won by satisfying their base, assuming their is a vote on DACA soon. They also ruined DJT's anniversary party by forcing its cancellation, which is a small moral victory. The shutdown itself was too inconsequential for most people to notice, let alone care (it helped that it was mostly over a weekend). I don't think it was much of a victory, but if you have to determine a winner, it was the Democrats who came out ahead.

And, as Zonk noted, all this bill does was kick the down the road for several weeks. There are still fundamental disagreements both within the GOP and of course between the two parties as to what appropriate funding levels are. The inevitable result is going to be a reluctant agreement to maintain current funding levels for another year, so they might as well just vote to pass that CR and then be done with it until after the midterms.

Finally, DJT was exposed again as someone who brings nothing to the table other than chaos. For the next round of negotiations (on both the next CR and DACA), they should just take away his cellphone and send him down to Florida to play golf so as to not interject anymore difficulty into a delicate process. His total incompetence made a difficult situation even worse.
Come on, people, the MSM blamed the Democrats for the shutdown. Um, hello? THIS. NEVER. HAPPENS.

BTW, the increasingly unhinged Democrat base is already lashing out at Schumer and Durbin and the other Senate Democrats who voted YES.
   63. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:20 PM (#5610977)

Democrats won by satisfying their base,
I think you should check Twitter; you won't find their base being satisfied.
   64. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5610978)
And at the next poker game, the Republicans will be down... by one CHIP.
   65. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5610979)
I don't know that the Democrats ever really thought that they'd get DACA. But they knew that the same deal that was offered last week (including CHIP) would be available to them next week. They put on a dog-and-pony show for the benefit of satisfying Latinos and others in the base, but shutting down the government for a weekend didn't really cause any lasting harm. At most, government employees got an extra three-day weekend, which will probably wind up being paid. No one was hurt, Latinos are satisfied (for now).

And there was a huge moral victory in disrupting DJT's little party in Florida to celebrate the anniversary of his coronation. It wouldn't surprise me if the scheduling of the end to the previous CR was chosen precisely to frustrate DJT.
   66. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5610980)
See the freaking post you're quoting from. The Dems got to make hay about DACA.
Do you really need to be reminded about the CNN poll showing the strong preference for keeping the government open over fixing DACA?
   67. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5610981)
The age fetishists have sent the 15 and 23 year old to stupid heights, and those whiskeys are overaged. They taste like you're licking the barrel instead of sipping the whiskey. The 12 drinks the best and is less stupidly inflated


I've still got a bottle of 10 year in storage. I didn't put it out on the bar yet, saw no real reason to do so.
   68. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5610983)
Come on, people, the MSM blamed the Democrats for the shutdown. Um, hello? THIS. NEVER. HAPPENS.

I've been told by the GOP leadership that all news is fake.
   69. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5610984)
I think you should check Twitter; you won't find their base being satisfied.
Who needs to check Twitter when you can query a handful of tourists from Manhattan paying $40 for a shot of low-grade bourbon?
   70. Traderdave Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5610985)
I've still got a bottle of 10 year in storage. I didn't put it out on the bar yet, saw no real reason to do so.


Retain for personal consumption.
   71. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5610986)
We can’t know for sure who won the shutdown without personal texts from mid level FBI agents.
   72. Count Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5610987)
Ok regardless of how this plays out politically, do the conservatives here want some sort of legal status for people brought to this country as children and fulfilling other requirements or not? Preferably citizenship (which most Americans support). If the conservatives here want some form of DACA to pass, are you upset that no deal has been reached on that issue yet? Do you blame the Trump WH and the House GOP (both beholden to white nationalists)? What's your actual position on the substantive issue affecting hundreds of thousands of people who have lived here since they were children and who are at risk of being deported?
   73. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5610988)
I think you should check Twitter; you won't find their base being satisfied.

In ten months their base isn't going to care about a CR in January.
   74. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5610989)
I think you should check Twitter; you won't find their base being satisfied.

They're going to hold Schumer's feet to the fire to make sure that there is a vote coming on DACA in a few weeks. They're not going to withhold support in November or try to primary incumbents in May-August.

It's totally cynical on my part, but I think that this was the Democrats' plan all along. And getting CHIP funded for six years was the cherry on top.
   75. tshipman Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5610990)
Come on, people, the MSM blamed the Democrats for the shutdown. Um, hello? THIS. NEVER. HAPPENS.


And, in 3 weeks, if Republicans renege on the deal, who do you think will be blamed?
   76. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5610991)
I think you should check Twitter

I already said the Dems were idiots and would be unsatisfied. (And those two things aren't even necessarily related.) However, one should never actually "check Twitter" for anything accurate.
   77. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5610993)
They also ruined DJT's anniversary party by forcing its cancellation, which is a small moral victory.

Scratch that "moral victory, too. The RNC fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago went on as scheduled, with a video message from Trump explaining his absence due to the Schumer Shutdown.
   78. Zonk's Timely Epoch Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5610994)
Um... dude. The Dems folded. The Dems know the Dems folded, the Republicans know the Dems folded, you know the Dems folded, everyone knows the Dems folded..


I commend them for folding. The GOP was surprisingly unified - at least, once Squeezer Meadows decided to get squeezed and the Freedom Caucus neutered themselves - it was never going to be a great hand to play. And when you're the party that actually IS pro-government, you're always starting in a hole anyway.

Besides, if we're going to have a big showdown on the budget and DACA -- I'd rather wait a month or two. Better to wait until the public -- and GOP candidates -- are dragged into midterm primary season. Not sure how much cave the freedom caucus has in them - but optimally, I'd prefer to have things get really ugly closer to the March/April timeframe.
   79. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5610995)
Do you really need to be reminded about the CNN poll showing the strong preference for keeping the government open over fixing DACA?


Do you really not understand how bases get built? The Dems showed minorities that they care about their positions and will fight for them. The rest of the base is not going to care about a short term virtually non visible shutdown.
   80. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5610996)
And, in 3 weeks, if Republicans renege on the deal, who do you think will be blamed?
Renege on what deal? Schumer sure didn't spell out any details.
   81. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5610997)
Retain for personal consumption.

Had one, gave it away. Not really my thing.
   82. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5610998)

They're going to hold Schumer's feet to the fire to make sure that there is a vote coming on DACA in a few weeks.
Hold Schumer's feet to the fire? If there's no DACA vote it's because McConnell reneged. (I don't think that'll happen, but that's the relevant factor.) If he does, what are Schumer's feet going to do about it?
   83. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5611000)

The RNC fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago went on as scheduled,
Yes, but they had to eat their caviar with plastic utensils.
   84. Count Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5611001)
82- schumers feet are held to the fire re voting for another cr in a few weeks if there's no DACA vote.
   85. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5611002)
Ok regardless of how this plays out politically, do the conservatives here want some sort of legal status for people brought to this country as children and fulfilling other requirements or not? Preferably citizenship (which most Americans support). If the conservatives here want some form of DACA to pass, are you upset that no deal has been reached on that issue yet? Do you blame the Trump WH and the House GOP (both beholden to white nationalists)? What's your actual position on the substantive issue affecting hundreds of thousands of people who have lived here since they were children and who are at risk of being deported?

It's a fringe opinion to deport DACA immigrants for sure, on both sides of the aisle. And it's a political headache for anyone of the GOP who is otherwise indifferent to the issue. The GOP can't make this issue go away fast enough and most are not "true believers" for The Wall, so it's a fight that they aren't really interested in.
   86. Zonk's Timely Epoch Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5611003)
Scratch that "moral victory, too. The RNC fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago went on as scheduled, with a video message from Trump explaining his absence due to the Schumer Shutdown.


Just as Trump wanted, I'm sure.

If your enemy is temperamental, irritate him.
   87. tshipman Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5611004)
(I don't think that'll happen, but that's the relevant factor.) If he does, what are Schumer's feet going to do about it?


Shut down the government, and say that they had to do it because Republicans renege on deals?

I mean, this one's pretty obvious.
   88. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5611005)
Do you really not understand how bases get built? The Dems showed minorities that they care about their positions and will fight for them. The rest of the base is not going to care about a short term virtually non visible shutdown.
Actually, I do. And right now the base is cheering on the Ted Cruzes of the left, not the leadership of their party which cooked up this embarrassment.
   89. BDC Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5611006)
If the conservatives here want some form of DACA to pass, are you upset that no deal has been reached on that issue yet?

Somehow I suspect this is well down the conservative priority list, probably below golf-course tax exemptions.
   90. Traderdave Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5611007)
Had one, gave it away. Not really my thing.


Then put it on the bar for $50/shot. It will prove Barnum right again.
   91. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5611009)
Hold Schumer's feet to the fire? If there's no DACA vote it's because McConnell reneged. (I don't think that'll happen, but that's the relevant factor.) If he does, what are Schumer's feet going to do about it?

If there isn't a vote on this within a month or so, then I'm not sure that Schumer remains minority leader. Sure, Schumer is relying on McConnell, but the rank-and-file Senate Democrats are relying on Schumer's judgement that they'll eventually get a vote on DACA. If that doesn't happen, then Schumer will be held accountable by Democrats.
   92. K-BAR, J-BAR (trhn) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:32 PM (#5611010)
At most, government employees got an extra three-day weekend, which will probably wind up being paid.


Not even that. I am non-excepted, but still had to go in for a half day so we could effect an "orderly shutdown." BEats 2013. If you're gonna shut down the government in a symbolic gesture, doubling down for 10 workdays or so is dumb.
   93. Zonk's Timely Epoch Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:32 PM (#5611011)
People seem to be missing the fact that this.... a CR.... ANOTHER CR....

Pretending that it's DACA alone keeping us in CR land is silly. It's the Dems most convenient and easiest to point to cudgel, sure -- but let's not pretend if DACA becomes law tomorrow, everything is happy in GOP budget land.
   94. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:33 PM (#5611013)
Awwwwwwww, and this comes from the dude whose approach to OTP is, "I don't know who Mitch McConnell is and don't care who he is, but listen to me, I know what I'm talking about!"


This is of course, a lie. I know the main players - like the Turtle. I did not know the specific Congress Critter you brought into the conversation, a Congress Critter without whom the conversation and ideas behind it are exactly the same. But liars gonna lie I guess.
   95. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:34 PM (#5611015)
Shut down the government, and say that they had to do it because Republicans renege on deals?

I mean, this one's pretty obvious.
Again, we'll have to see what's in said DACA bill. And again again, given the choice between the government staying open and DACA, Americans by a wide margin choose the former.
   96. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:34 PM (#5611016)
Actually, I do. And right now the base is cheering on the Ted Cruzes of the left, not the leadership of their party which cooked up this embarrassment.

Why you guys aren't trusting Mr. Investigation N. Nine on the activity of the Dem base is a mystery to me.
   97. Zonk's Timely Epoch Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5611017)
Actually, I do. And right now the base is cheering on the Ted Cruzes of the left, not the leadership of their party which cooked up this embarrassment.


So you're saying this might end up playing out like 2013 going forward did? I'll take that. I mean, I'm still not on the Oprah bandwagon... but if this means that Elizabeth Warren finishes runner-up to President Oprah while the Dems take both chambers, OK. I guess I'll take that.
   98. Count Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5611018)
85- what they have been doing is saying publicly they support some form of DACA until the last week, when they shifted to blasting dreamers* to appeal to anti immigrant types and the Rays of the world who are basically ignorant of the policy disputes involved but like the sound of liberals supporting illegal immigrants over citizens and either aren't aware or don't care that the GOP ostensibly does not want to deport the dreamers. GOPers don't want to cross the white nationalist crowd in the House or Trump WH who don't actually want to pass any legislation to protect the dreamers unless it's paired with radical and frankly abhorrent changes to other areas of immigration law (see House GOP proposal). Of course, conservative commentators here do not have the same political constrainsts so you'd think they could take a position...

*dreamers is a loaded term but we need some shorthand for the group of people at issue.
   99. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5611019)
Then put it on the bar for $50/shot. It will prove Barnum right again.

Ha, I actually sold it for something like $80 a shot last year. No, I want to save it in case I get a special event or customer. 1 bottle, even at $80 a drink, is not going to do anything for my bottom line so I'd rather keep it around to possibly seal a deal that can be noticed on my P&L.
   100. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:37 PM (#5611021)
The agreement is the one the Democrats rejected before: vote on the CR now, vote on DACA later. You and Dems sneered at that, saying that they have no reason to trust that there would be a DACA vote later, and that they were therefore right to insist on DACA being in the CR.



Hey Victory! You are actually talking about things that could be considered a win or loss. Well done.

As for your "analysis", if you want to say the Democrats lost on that basis, well go for it. If it is a victory it is largely meaningless. I think the whole thing reinforced a couple themes - Trump is a dumpster fire at governing, Democrats don't like shutting down the government and the GOP doesn't care if it does, and in the end not much was accomplished either way that impacts the average voter. If you think that is a major victory, then you need to win more. Edit: Also reinforces that Democrats care about minorities and the GOP does not.

Side note: I am pretty sure I made no prediction either way, so I don't think I was wrong. Well, no, I did predict a very short shutdown if it happened, so I was right about that.
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