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Monday, January 22, 2018

OTP 22 January 2018: What the Baseball Hall of Fame can teach us about elections

Would ballot-box behavior change if people knew more precisely how their fellow citizens planned to vote?

It’s a question that still haunts Democrats as they continue staring daggers at their friends who went third party in November 2016. But it’s also an experiment being carried out in real time by the Baseball Writers Association of America as members prepare to elect at least three and as many as five retired greats to the Hall of Fame later this

The association’s complicated voting rules work like this: Eligible players need 75 percent of the vote to win election. Those receiving less than 5 percent get kicked off the ballot; those between rejection and enshrinement can stay on the ballot for up to 10 years. And voters can support up to 10 candidates.

 

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 08:44 AM | 4563 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, politics

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   101. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:37 PM (#5611022)
What the GOP wants is a white supremacist nation again.
   102. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:37 PM (#5611023)
The RNC fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago went on as scheduled

Without DJT in attendance, which he had been looking forward to. It's petty, but DJT has made things incredibly personal. I wouldn't put it past Democrats to do things to spite DJT when given the opportunity. And actually if it will fly under the radar, I wouldn't put it past some GOP (including the leadership) to make DJT unhappy.

The previous CR could have ended on any day in early 2018. Someone chose the anniversary of DJT's inauguration. Maybe it's a coincidence, but I doubt it. They anticipated the likelihood of a shutdown and took advantage of the opportunity to stick it to DJT personally.

What went on Friday night was pure political theatre, with some coordination by both parties. Call me a conspiracy nut, but I'm starting to think that the primary purpose was to get CHIP passed and they needed a distraction to do so. In other words, congressional leaders are starting to use Trump's playbook to get bipartisan bills signed.
   103. Zonk, Bearer of Responsibility Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5611024)
*dreamers is a loaded term but we need some shorthand for the group of people at issue.


So is "merit"... where "merit" means the very qualifications - higher education degrees, bankrolls and comfy white collar jobs, and standardized test scores -- the GOP base supposedly thinks is wrong with and ruining America, regardless of immigration.

   104. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5611025)
the Ted Cruzes of the left

And who would that be? The Antifa crowd? Gus Hall's ghost?

It's also funny to see the scornful tone of "the Ted Cruzes of the left", coming from someone who would've voted for Cruz if he'd beaten out Trump for the GOP nomination.
   105. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5611026)
Call me a conspiracy nut, but I'm starting to think that the primary purpose was to get CHIP passed and they needed a distraction to do so. In other words, congressional leaders are starting to use Trump's playbook to get bipartisan bills signed.

That would be great if it was true.
   106. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:40 PM (#5611027)
Pretending that it's DACA alone keeping us in CR land is silly. It's the Dems most convenient and easiest to point to cudgel, sure -- but let's not pretend if DACA becomes law tomorrow, everything is happy in GOP budget land.

Right. GOP is possibly too divided on the issue to get a budget passed in the Senate, maybe even the House. There's a fundamental disagreement between budget hawks, military hawks, and moderates who don't want to devastate domestic spending. Democrats have an advantage in that most of both caucuses fall into the latter category.
   107. Zonk, Bearer of Responsibility Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5611028)
Without DJT in attendance, which he had been looking forward to. It's petty, but DJT has made things incredibly personal. I wouldn't put it past Democrats to do things to spite DJT when given the opportunity. And actually if it will fly under the radar, I wouldn't put it past some GOP (including the leadership) to make DJT unhappy.


As well they should.

It's not the responsibility of everyone else to coddle President Big Baby because he's a Big Baby. Making life easier for the WH babysitters isn't high on my list of priorities.
   108. K-BAR, J-BAR (trhn) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:42 PM (#5611029)
A half-full bottle of Pappy 10 year fell off my liquor cabinet and broke about 4-5 years ago. Still have the picture of the shattered bottle in a pool or bourbon in my phone in case it ever becomes conversationally relevant. Back then I took it in stride because I knew could always buy Weller or Elmer T Lee or Elijah Craig for $30. Whoops....
   109. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5611033)
Right. GOP is possibly too divided on the issue to get a budget passed in the Senate, maybe even the House. There's a fundamental disagreement between budget hawks, military hawks, and moderates who don't want to devastate domestic spending. Democrats have an advantage in that most of both caucuses fall into the latter category.


Maybe. All this massive "Victory" did was - as mentioned up thread - push out things a while. The GOP has managed to get unified a couple times during the Trump Experience, the Tax bill being the most notable, but also various appointments and also the odd CR. If they can continue to cobble together just enough votes on an as needed basis they can continue to "govern" and not give up much of substance to the Democrats. Will they? Beats me.

EDIT: Getting CHIP funded for six years is, by the way, a huge victory in my book.
   110. The Good Face Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:45 PM (#5611034)
And as great as Pappy is, it is insanely overrated. If you're gonna pay up, the only one worth it is the 12. The age fetishists have sent the 15 and 23 year old to stupid heights, and those whiskeys are overaged. They taste like you're licking the barrel instead of sipping the whiskey. The 12 drinks the best and is less stupidly inflated.


There is no 12 year Pappy van Winkle. The Pappy van Winkle lineup comes in 15, 20 and 23 year versions. The 12 year is Van Winkle Special Reserve. But yeah, the entire lineup is insanely overrated. It does fill the very much under-served niche of aged, high quality, wheated bourbon (most bourbon isn't wheated, and much of the bourbon that is wheated tends to be young, mediocre or both), but the prices are insane compared to the quality of the bourbon, which is typically very good or even great. I would never turn down a bottle at anything remotely close to MSRP, but that's simply because I could turn around and sell it for enough money to buy multiple bottles of equally good or better bourbon.
   111. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5611036)
Ok regardless of how this plays out politically, do the conservatives here want some sort of legal status for people brought to this country as children and fulfilling other requirements or not?


Sure but your Mr Lincoln had to impinge on states rights and ruin it for everyone.
   112. Traderdave Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:48 PM (#5611037)
Ha, I actually sold it for something like $80 a shot last year. No, I want to save it in case I get a special event or customer. 1 bottle, even at $80 a drink, is not going to do anything for my bottom line so I'd rather keep it around to possibly seal a deal that can be noticed on my P&L.


Re: Special event

I have had a hell of a time booking a restaurant's private dining room for a milestone birthday party for my wife. I called places that I know have private rooms and they don't return calls. A couple places I called 3 or 4 times.

One place that did respond had a $200/person minimum without any alcohol. This is a place where app/entree/dessert is generally 80-100. I was OK with 200 if it included wine but the additional mark was insane.

After places that I knew & liked petered out, I started googling local places with private dining. I stopped by two of them that are near each other and saw that "private dining" was just a large table on the edge of the (very loud) main floor.

It got to the point where it felt like I had to offer them a bottle of VW just for the privilege of handing them a lot of money. While I did finally find a place, it was frustrating as hell. I always thought a phone call that starts "I want to drop 4 or 5 grand at your establishment" would be well received, but I guess Bay Are places are just making too much money these days.
   113. BDC Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:58 PM (#5611045)
Yesterday I finally saw The Shape of Water, lovely picture, probably no spoiler to say that it is basically Free Willy meets The Creature from the Black Lagoon with a bit more violence than either of its models.

Politically … it basically fires away at an extremely stationary target, the testosterone-poisoned hyper-American stereotype of the 1950s/60s. Against this "monster," represented by Michael Shannon and Nick Searcy, the film brings to bear a coalition of disabled, queer, black, and Jewish (? Michael Stuhlbarg, anyway; he plays a Soviet spy) characters to tap into the supernatural energies of Latin America (the creature, played by former relief pitcher and current Alabama Senator Doug Jones), and smash the patriarchy.

Searcy has the best line, something like "Decency? That's for export. We don't use it here."
   114. BDC Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5611046)
Also, I feel like I should contribute to the whiskey conversation, by reporting that I had one shot of Johnnie Walker Red and one of Bushmills Single Malt this past holiday season, leaving me with about 7/8 of a bottle of each to get me through the next five years or so.
   115. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5611047)
EDIT: Getting CHIP funded for six years is, by the way, a huge victory in my book.

Agreed, it's huge. And it's actually a victory for both parties.

Democrats like it on its merits. A minority of GOP would sincerely vote to get rid of it, but a majority of the caucus doesn't want to eliminate it. Or are unwilling to pay a political price for what is ultimately a pretty small federal program. Also, GOP governors (and many state legislatures) are very much in favor of continuing it.

It would be difficult for both chambers to pass a "clean" CHIP reauthorization. But Ryan/McConnell engineered a scenario in which they got a majority of the FREEDOM CAUCUS in the House to vote for it. This gets the issue off the table for the next few election cycles, including 2018 where they moderates are going to be most vulnerable.

Also, note it was a 6 year reauthorization, not the typical 10. Why? Well 6 years takes us to 2024. The GOP leadership knows that DJT is unlikely to be reelected, so realistically they're not going to have a chance at reforming the program until they regain the White House, the soonest of which would be 2024.

So the situation that developed benefits both parties and preempts the issue (most importantly keeps DJT from wading into it), because honestly they don't have the bandwidth to try to get CHIP reauthorization passed by March.

BTW, I'm crediting Ryan/McConnell for this bit of 4D chess as a way of bypassing DJT. I don't think that Schumer/Pelosi are that creative.
   116. Shredder Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5611048)
One place that did respond had a $200/person minimum without any alcohol. This is a place where app/entree/dessert is generally 80-100. I was OK with 200 if it included wine but the additional mark was insane.
Man, that's nuts. Our wedding was just a couple years ago, and we got married at a well known Chicago brewpub, 130 people at (I think) $110/head. That included all food (including oyster bar, which was $5/head extra), full bar, and a coordinator. $200 per head for just food is insane.
   117. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5611049)

Side note: I am pretty sure I made no prediction either way, so I don't think I was wrong. Well, no, I did predict a very short shutdown if it happened, so I was right about that.
The prediction you made was not about the length of the shutdown or the like; it was about the fact that Republicans would be blamed because "they control all three branches of government" yada yada yada.
   118. Zonk, Bearer of Responsibility Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:05 PM (#5611051)
EDIT: Getting CHIP funded for six years is, by the way, a huge victory in my book.

Agreed, it's huge. And it's actually a victory for both parties.


Purely for purposes of governance, I agree.

Though, personally - politically - I would not have minded a couple more days of Republicans extolling the virtues and importance of it.
   119. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:06 PM (#5611052)
The prediction you made was not about the length of the shutdown or the like; it was about the fact that Republicans would be blamed because "they control all three branches of government" yada yada yada.

I don't think it really matters who gets "blamed" for it. Hardly anyone was negatively affected by it, some didn't even notice it. It will be a non-issue in the 2018 midterms.

To the extent that anyone's keeping score at home, Democratic voters blame the GOP, GOP voters blame the Democrats. The marginal voter doesn't really care. It was an inert act of political theatre that got CHIP reauthorized to the benefit of the leadership of both parties.
   120. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:09 PM (#5611053)
Democrats won by satisfying their base . . .

Really? Perhaps some here need to get out more often, since virtually all the reporting indicates otherwise:
Liberal groups quickly accused Democrats of caving, saying they failed to get a real guarantee that Dreamers will be protected.

“It’s official: Chuck Schumer is the worst negotiator in Washington — even worse than Trump,” Credo Political Director Murshed Zaheed said in a statement. “Any plan to protect Dreamers that relies on the word of serial liars like Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan or Donald Trump is doomed to fail.”

Notably, several senators seen as potential White House candidates for the Democratic Party in 2020 voted against the funding bill, including Sens. Cory Booker (N.J.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) and Kamala Harris (Calif.).
. . .
In the end, however, Democrats worried they lacked an endgame for ending the shutdown and were suffering political damage as Republicans hammered them for holding government funding hostage.

The NYT has a similar story, and it's also reported elsewhere that Nancy Pelosi & Steny Hoyer urged a "No" vote.

EDIT: 16 of the 18 votes against cloture came from Senate Democrats:
NAYs ---18
Blumenthal (D-CT)
Booker (D-NJ)
Cortez Masto (D-NV)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Gillibrand (D-NY)
Harris (D-CA)
Hirono (D-HI)
Leahy (D-VT)
Lee (R-UT)
Markey (D-MA)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Merkley (D-OR)
Murphy (D-CT)
Paul (R-KY)
Sanders (I-VT)
Tester (D-MT)
Warren (D-MA)
Wyden (D-OR)
   121. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5611054)
Congressman gets booted from Ethics Panel for lack of ethics. Was that wrong? Should he have not done that? I tell you, he's gotta plead ignorance on this thing because if anyone had said anything to him at all when he first started on the Ethics panel that that sort of thing was frowned upon, you know?

Key GOP rep removed from ethics panel after harassment settlement
NY Times: Representative Patrick Meehan, a Pennsylvania Republican who has taken a leading role in fighting sexual harassment in Congress, used thousands of dollars in taxpayer money to settle his own misconduct complaint after a former aide accused him last year of making unwanted romantic overtures to her, according to several people familiar with the settlement.
...After the woman became involved in a serious relationship with someone outside the office last year, Mr. Meehan professed his romantic desires for her – first in person, and then in a handwritten letter – and he grew hostile when she did not reciprocate, the people familiar with her time in the office said.
...The woman found it necessary to begin working from home, before ultimately quitting. She initiated the complaint process with the congressional Office of Compliance and received a settlement from the Pennsylvania Republican’s congressional office fund.

Meehan’s office denies the allegations, but when the Times asked why the lawmaker agreed to the settlement and the confidentiality provision if the allegations were false, the congressman’s spokesperson did not respond.

...House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) responded to the report by removing Meehan from the 10-member Ethics Committee, which will now take the lead in examining the allegations.

...What’s more, Meehan, whose district includes Philadelphia suburbs, represents one of the most competitive congressional districts in the country. If this story affects his political standing, as appears likely, it may have an impact on Congress’ makeup after the midterm elections.
   122. BrianBrianson Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5611055)
by reporting that I had one shot of Johnnie Walker Red


You poor bastard.
   123. Count Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5611057)
No takers from the conservatives here to say their actual position on the dreamers?
   124. BDC Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5611058)
one shot of Johnnie Walker Red

You poor bastard


Because the whiskey is that bad, or because given that it's so bad, I didn't at least drink myself into amnesia?
   125. reech Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5611059)
I'm completely disgusted by the Democrats caving on this.
There is no chance that the Republicans will honor any promises.
   126. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5611060)
Notably, several senators seen as potential White House candidates for the Democratic Party in 2020 voted against the funding bill, including Sens. Cory Booker (N.J.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) and Kamala Harris (Calif.).


These were not tactical votes, though. Only a Majority Leader keeping his reconsideration options open can ever do such a thing.
   127. Traderdave Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5611061)
No takers from the conservatives here to say their actual position on the dreamers?


They're in favor of WASP Dreamers, maybe a few Catholics if they're the right kind. Jewish dreamers are OK as long as they're the type that dresses like normal people.

Most conservatives know they can't say that out loud, but that is their position.
   128. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5611062)
The GOP leadership knows that DJT is unlikely to be reelected,
Cite? As someone who has talked with folks close to the GOP leadership, that is NOT the prevailing view.
   129. Ray (CTL) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:18 PM (#5611063)
No takers from the conservatives here to say their actual position on the dreamers?


They can stay if we (1) acknowledge that DACA is illegal, and (b) drop the pretense of the euphemism "dreamers."
   130. Traderdave Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:19 PM (#5611064)
one shot of Johnnie Walker Red


It would be cheaper & have a similar effect to down a shot of vodka and then put a pinch of ashes from a peat fire in between cheek & gum, Skoal style.
   131. Ray (CTL) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:19 PM (#5611065)
I'm completely disgusted by the Democrats caving on this.
There is no chance that the Republicans will honor any promises.


Yes, the "Srul Strategy" can be employed by either party.
   132. BrianBrianson Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5611066)
No, I can't really imagine anyone getting past one shot of Johnny Walker Red. Unless perhaps they're already in the amnesia territory. It's not Baiju, and part of my dislike for it is how ridiculously overpriced it is.
   133. Zonk, Bearer of Responsibility Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:21 PM (#5611068)
They can stay if we (1) acknowledge that DACA is illegal, and (b) drop the pretense of the euphemism "dreamers."


As noted above - I'll drop 'dreamers' if you drop 'merit'.

Or - you can keep merit, but explain to all those rust belt, under-educated Trumpkins why all the urban elites with their fancy degrees, white collar jobs, and standardized test scores are more meritorious than the salt-of-the-earth, HS-educated, blue collar strivers are.

Either way.
   134. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:22 PM (#5611069)
EDIT: 16 of the 18 votes against cloture came from Senate Democrats:
They're running.

BTW, Andy, I see you consider Sanders one of your own now. With this act of grace, you've embiggened us all! (smile)
   135. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:32 PM (#5611072)
From the Washington Post - Democrats Caved On The Shutdown, And They're Admitting It. The Democratic base is not happy with just a Senate vote on DACA, they wanted a guarantee that it'd pass the House and be signed by Trump. That guarantee was never going to happen, although some DACA legislation will likely pass, assuming that Senate Democrats don't thwart what comes out of the House as being insufficient.
   136. The Good Face Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:35 PM (#5611073)
No, I can't really imagine anyone getting past one shot of Johnny Walker Red. Unless perhaps they're already in the amnesia territory. It's not Baiju, and part of my dislike for it is how ridiculously overpriced it is.


BDC told us last year that he drank a pour of Johnnie Walker Red neat and didn't think it was bad. So in light of that, I'd say he's actually winning scotch. Johnnie Walker Red is cheap and effortless to find; he'll never need to waste time or money looking for or buying higher end stuff.
   137. dlf Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:36 PM (#5611074)
Then put it on the bar for $50/shot. It will prove Barnum right again.

Ha, I actually sold it for something like $80 a shot last year. No, I want to save it in case I get a special event or customer. 1 bottle, even at $80 a drink, is not going to do anything for my bottom line so I'd rather keep it around to possibly seal a deal that can be noticed on my P&L.


May I respectfully suggest that bringing it along to the Atlanta BTF get together in February would definitely seal that deal.
   138. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5611076)
From the Washington Post - Democrats Caved On The Shutdown, And They're Admitting It. The Democratic base is not happy with just a Senate vote on DACA, they wanted a guarantee that it'd pass the House and be signed by Trump. That guarantee was never going to happen, although some DACA legislation will likely pass, assuming that Senate Democrats don't thwart what comes out of the House as being insufficient.
C'mon, Clapper, who ya gonna believe? Kamala Harris, Dianne Feinstein, and the OFA leadership? Or zonkie, McCoy, Mouse, and 6-4-3? Um...
   139. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:38 PM (#5611078)
There is no chance that the Republicans will honor any promises.

Their safeguard is that there is another vote on a CR within a month or so. If DACA vote doesn't happen, then they can hold out for it at that point.

One other thought: it could be that the GOP is waiting for filing deadlines to pass (i.e., limit primary challengers). That will allow the relatively moderate GOP House members to vote for it without fear of a primary challenge from the alt-right. Primary dates vary by state (May-August), but most deadlines are around March (latest is late April for the later ones).
   140. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:38 PM (#5611079)
Cite? As someone who has talked with folks close to the GOP leadership, that is NOT the prevailing view.

Not with people like you behind him. Or against him. Whichever.

   141. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:40 PM (#5611081)
From the Washington Post

I was told no mainstream media is to be trusted.
   142. BrianBrianson Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:41 PM (#5611082)
Johnnie Walker Red is cheap and effortless to find; he'll never need to waste time or money looking for or buying higher end stuff.


It's really not (and I realise I'm among the poorest guys here). For less money, I can (and do) buy better scotchs. JW Red is $27 for a 26er in PA (where I live). A litre of Teacher's Highland Cream is a) better, and b) $17. More, better whisky for less money. Grant's is $16 for a 26er.
   143. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:44 PM (#5611083)
Here's a periodic reminder that Al-Qaeda's at war with Saudi but sets up shop in Iran...

Al-Qaeda’s historian Mustafa Hamed resumes digital activity in Tehran:
Al-Qaeda’s most prominent historian and Afghan-Arab, strategist Mustafa Hamed, aka Abu al-Walid al-Masri, emerged from Tehran to resume his activity in lecturing radical groups via his website Mafa.

Abu al-Walid, Osama bin Laden’s and Ayman al-Zawahiri’s friend, willingly left Qatar in 2016 and went to Tehran to live there with his children.

Abu al-Walid, who was Al-Jazeera’s correspondent in Kandahar between 1998 and 2001, commented on resuming Mafa’s activity and explained that the website was established 2009 to publish six books about jihad.

“I resumed Mafa’s activity after returning to Iran because I have plenty to say about public matters. My opinions can only be voiced on Mafa as it’s not under the control of international powers which globalized people’s economies,” he said, adding that Iran’s “atmosphere for freedom” allows him to publish on Mafa.

Abu al-Walid reiterated that Iran allowed al-Qaeda members and their families to enter Iran following the September 11, 2001 attacks and offered to help some of them.
   144. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:45 PM (#5611084)
More of the same - Democrats Get Rolled In Shutdown Standoff:
Senate Democrats shut the government down in hopes of striking a deal to shield 700,000 young immigrants from deportation. In the end, they got a promise of a vote — one that Republicans argue was going to happen, anyway.

Democrats lost the shutdown war. That much was obvious when they voted to re-open the government with little to show for it. They had vowed for weeks not to back any funding bill without a bipartisan agreement to protect so-called Dreamers. But as Washington entered day three of a government shutdown, Democrats folded, voting to reopen the government barely any closer to their goal.

BBTF-OTP Team Blue appears to stand alone in declaring a Democratic victory.
   145. Count Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:46 PM (#5611085)
YC and JE would love it if you could say what your position is on DACA and why you support (or don't!) the WH and Congressional GOP position and tactics on this issue.
   146. The Good Face Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:46 PM (#5611086)
It's really not (and I realise I'm among the poorest guys here). For less money, I can (and do) buy better scotchs. JW Red is $27 for a 26er in PA (where I live). A litre of Teacher's Highland Cream is a) better, and b) $17. More, better whisky for less money. Grant's is $16 for a 26er.


Took me like 2 seconds to find a liquor store online selling handles of the stuff for $28.97. Could probably do even better than that if you're willing to shop around.
   147. BrianBrianson Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:48 PM (#5611088)
Could probably do even better than that if you're willing to shop around.


Takes me a couple hours to drive to a neighboring state. Obviously prices will vary by state, and I figured using the state where I live is the fairest choice. If you're getting JW Red cheaper, you're probably getting Teacher's cheaper too.
   148. Ray (CTL) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5611089)
BBTF-OTP Team Blue appears to stand alone in declaring a Democratic victory.


The Dems got rolled, plain and simple.
   149. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5611090)
Took me like 2 seconds to find a liquor store online selling handles of the stuff for $28.97.

More out of curiosity than anything else, what's the shipping on that?

edit: Wait, you probably don't mean to ORDER online. You can tell how much drinking I actually do.
   150. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:52 PM (#5611091)
BBTF-OTP Team Blue appears to stand alone in declaring a Democrativ victory.

I just don't think who "won" the mid-January shutdown matters. The ultimate political goal is to win in November. Losing a news cycle or two over the shutdown doesn't really impact.

Some of the major policy goals while a minority party were:
1) preserve Obamacare
2) prevent GOP tax reform
3) reauthorize CHIP
4) preserve DACA

So far they clearly lost (2), but now have won (1) and (3) (or mostly won the first). The fate of DACA is to be determined, but it's not necessarily a political setback to have that issue in November.

Feinstein, Harris, and other Deep Blue Democrats (particularly those in states with large Latino populations) can complain all they want. It's not going to matter in the long run. The situation helps Red State Senate Democrats as well as challengers to more moderate GOP House. It's a long-term political win, even if in the short-term Schumer gets beat up in the press. But that's his job as Minority Leader: take the heat to protect his more vulnerable members.
   151. Zonk, Bearer of Responsibility Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:54 PM (#5611092)
BBTF-OTP Team Blue appears to stand alone in declaring a Democratic victory.


I think team blue is more amused you're going full bat-flip on a foul tip.

Seems a bit much.
   152. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:55 PM (#5611093)
I think team blue is more amused you're going full bat-flip on a foul tip.

Good analogy.
   153. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5611096)
They can stay if we (1) acknowledge that DACA is illegal, and (b) drop the pretense of the euphemism "dreamers."

Yes, let's think of some term that reeks with contempt for the way that they plotted to get brought here by their parents. "Little Juvenile Delinquents" sounds about right.
   154. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:58 PM (#5611097)
YC and JE would love it if you could say what your position is on DACA and why you support (or don't!) the WH and Congressional GOP position and tactics on this issue.
I'd be happy with a DACA deal, even one that also grants the parents permanent residency, that includes a modified version of the Cotton-Perdue legislation. Obviously, the Democrats will have to agree to submit to some funding for the wall so exchanging it for a pathway to citizenship for DREAMers (not the parents though) would probably be acceptable.
   155. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 22, 2018 at 02:58 PM (#5611098)
Yeah, people are angry about Democrats caving but it was going to happen at some point. McConnell is probably going to break his promise, but that will put his broken promise out very publicly. To get meaningful votes on these things, Democrats need to flip 24 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate. That can't happen until November. The thing that a lot of liberals don't seem to realize is that a lot of Republicans believe that government is the problem and so shutting down the government isn't a negative for them. That's why the leverage was basically nil.
   156. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:00 PM (#5611100)
BBTF-OTP Team Blue appears to stand alone in declaring a Democratic victory.

Well, obviously the Dems aren't going to be able to win many immigration votes as long as the nativists in the House have the GOP in an iron grip. I'm sure that makes you proud.
   157. DJS, the Digital Dandy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:00 PM (#5611101)
I like how Schumer being an actual adult is something to be derided by the GOP, as they wouldn't know an adult in their party unless they were being groped by one.


You mean Chuck "YOU SAID A MEAN WORD DURING DACA NEGOTIATIONS I'M TELLING ON YOU AS LOUD AS I CAN!" Schumer?

Or do you mean Cory "I HEARD FROM CHUCK THAT TRUMP SAID A MEAN WORD AND IT MADE ME A CRY TO MY MOMMY SO I'M GOING TO COME AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO CALLING YOU A #### WITHOUT SAYING THE ACTUAL WORD" Booker?
   158. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:02 PM (#5611102)
Obviously, the Democrats will have to agree to submit to some funding for the wall

It is depressing that someone as intelligent as you are is behind this moronic plan and expenditure.
   159. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:02 PM (#5611103)
C'mon, Clapper, who ya gonna believe? Kamala Harris, Dianne Feinstein, and the OFA leadership? Or zonkie, McCoy, Mouse, and 6-4-3? Um...

BBTF-OTP Team Blue appears to stand alone in declaring a Democrativ victory.


It is telling that some folks here need to lie in order to take victory laps. But hey, when Trump is your leader lies are both expected and probably necessary to get through the day.
   160. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:03 PM (#5611104)
There's no downside to McConnell allowing a straight up-or-down vote on a "clean" DACA bill. Even if it passes the Senate, it won't pass the House and DJT would never sign it.

If DACA happens, it will be because it's part of a larger immigration bill (almost certainly including some funding for The Wall). But a more comprehensive bill is not what McConnell agreed to vote on in early February, though.

And if DACA fails to get resolved, then Democrats have the issue to run on in November, particularly in the more moderate Southern CA districts where GOP is vulnerable. It's not the first, or last time, that Democrats will sacrifice the interests of minorities to attain electoral advantage.
   161. Count Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:03 PM (#5611105)
JE thank you! I'm surprised you'd support cutting back legal immigration. Appreciate your willingness to say something, though.
   162. BrianBrianson Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:03 PM (#5611106)
Unaffliated media is mostly not declaring a winner, and it is rather a matter of perspective. For Dems to get any thing when they control nothing is a bit of a victory in a relative sense, but of course, not an absolute sense. So, you're free to see whatever you want.
   163. Zonk, Bearer of Responsibility Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5611107)
You mean Chuck "YOU SAID A MEAN WORD DURING DACA NEGOTIATIONS I'M TELLING ON YOU AS LOUD AS I CAN!" Schumer?


No - I think that's Dick "You invited us here to submit our bipartisan proposal a day after you bragged about taking the heat, a bill of love, prove-you're-not-senile show and then ambushed myself and Senator Graham with your racist ######## talk" Durbin.

Can't tell the players without a scorecard, I guess.
   164. The Good Face Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5611108)
Takes me a couple hours to drive to a neighboring state. Obviously prices will vary by state, and I figured using the state where I live is the fairest choice. If you're getting JW Red cheaper, you're probably getting Teacher's cheaper too.


Pennsylvania isn't really representative when it comes to booze purchases. Anyway, I've never even heard of "Teacher's Authentic Scotch-like Gutrot" or whatever it is you're drinking, which kind of goes to my point. Johnnie Walker Red is ubiquitous; every bar, every restaurant, every liquor store has it, and almost always for cheap. A man who likes the stuff need never fear that he won't be able to find it at a reasonable price wherever he goes.

I'm sure you can find cheaper booze, but if you like JWR you're already close enough to the bottom of the barrel that you probably don't need to scrape much further down unless you're an actual hobo or are immensely frugal.
   165. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5611109)
I just don't think who "won" the mid-January shutdown matters.

Perhaps, but that was not the stance of most on the previous page, hence the need for correction.
   166. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:05 PM (#5611110)
Another 2018 congressional development in the state that's already got Rep. Ethics Panel Ouster (#121):

Pennsylvania's Supreme Court just struck down the GOP's gerrymandered congressional map, and ordered a new fair map to be installed within three and a half weeks (by February 15).

Pennsylvania's Democratic Governor will veto any replacement that isn't suitable. Federal courts are considered unlikely to intercede, considering the similar precedent in Florida, in which the only federal action was to dismiss a VRA Sec 2 challenge. And since the case was decided under Pennsylvania's state constitution, the U.S. Supreme Court has no obvious route to become involved.

Pennsylvania's Congressional districts are currently 13-5 Republican, with an unexpectedly competitive special election for one of the GOP seats coming in March.
   167. Count Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:05 PM (#5611111)
157- are you confusing Schumer with Durbin? Either way I believe that the ######## meeting (wherein Trumo said the quiet part out loud again and revealed that they don't care about "merit" they care about race) was the same one in which Trump scuttled an immigration deal.
   168. Count Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:06 PM (#5611113)
It's not really about November, it's about hundreds of thousands of DACA recipients who face deportation in a couple months.
   169. Zonk, Bearer of Responsibility Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:07 PM (#5611114)
   170. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:07 PM (#5611115)
Re: Special event

I have had a hell of a time booking a restaurant's private dining room for a milestone birthday party for my wife. I called places that I know have private rooms and they don't return calls. A couple places I called 3 or 4 times.

One place that did respond had a $200/person minimum without any alcohol. This is a place where app/entree/dessert is generally 80-100. I was OK with 200 if it included wine but the additional mark was insane.

After places that I knew & liked petered out, I started googling local places with private dining. I stopped by two of them that are near each other and saw that "private dining" was just a large table on the edge of the (very loud) main floor.

It got to the point where it felt like I had to offer them a bottle of VW just for the privilege of handing them a lot of money. While I did finally find a place, it was frustrating as hell. I always thought a phone call that starts "I want to drop 4 or 5 grand at your establishment" would be well received, but I guess Bay Are places are just making too much money these days.


You should send hotel restaurants an email. A lot of hotel restaurants will have PDR. The food may or may not be of the same quality as a stand alone restaurant but most places will have space, staff, and hardware to do your event. Plus if you're looking to spend 200 dollars they certainly can give it their full attention. Obviously don't expect a Holiday Inn or Marriott Courtyard to pull off 4/5 star restaurant food but if you go to a Kimpton or a highly regarded full service restaurant you should be able to get a good meal.

You'll note that I said send them an email. Nowadays it is virtually impossible to get a hold of someone via the phone and they are damn sure not going to call you back via phone.
   171. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5611116)
May I respectfully suggest that bringing it along to the Atlanta BTF get together in February would definitely seal that deal.

The last time I brought alcohol to a meetup nobody drank it. Besides I'm thinking Krog Street Market won't be too thrilled to see me roll up with a bottle of alcohol.
   172. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5611117)
It's not really about November, it's about hundreds of thousands of DACA recipients who face deportation in a couple months.

I agree. But like I said, it won't be the first (or last) time that the Democrats sacrifice the interests of minorities in order to gain an electoral advantage.
   173. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:13 PM (#5611119)
Yeah, people are angry about Democrats caving but it was going to happen at some point.




Yeah, I don't see much happening from any anger on this one. Honestly GOP President Trump will do something ridiculous soon and rile up the Democratic base again, probably before I hit "Submit Your Comment", actually.

Trump's amazing chaos distraction field helps him avoid incoming fire, because it is hard to aim with so many targets, but it has its own downsides as well.
   174. BrianBrianson Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:13 PM (#5611120)
Anyway, I've never even heard of "Teacher's Authentic Scotch-like Gutrot" or whatever it is you're drinking, which kind of goes to my point. Johnnie Walker Red is ubiquitous; every bar, every restaurant, every liquor store has it, and almost always for cheap.


That JW spends their money on advertising rather than making a whisky that can rise to "Whatever" quality is not an upside. If you're at a bar where JW Red is the cheapest scotch ... like, don't drink the scotch. JW Red is bottom of the barrel quality (if that), but it's still ~2X bottom of the barrel price.
   175. Stormy JE Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:13 PM (#5611121)
JE thank you! I'm surprised you'd support cutting back legal immigration. Appreciate your willingness to say something, though.
Avec plaisir.

Of course, I did say "modified version" of Cotton-Perdue, which would mean not cutting chain migration so much, so soon. But I'm trying to be realistic about where we're headed.
   176. DJS, the Digital Dandy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:13 PM (#5611122)
No takers from the conservatives here to say their actual position on the dreamers?

I'm no conservative -- though I frequently line up with them here only because of how many extremist far-leftists there are here -- but I'm intentionally refusing to answer that question. Generally speaking, I don't answer questions that include add-on invective within the question.

If you really wanted answers, you wouldn't ask a bad-faith question. It's like asking a Democrat "Exactly what funding levels would you support for military spending? Keep in mind that the people in Democratic leadership are a bunch of America-haters." Jason really shouldn't have answered your question at all, given that it appears to me that it wasn't honestly asked to gauge an opponent's position, but instead to show how morally superior you are.
   177. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5611125)
Or do you mean Cory "I HEARD FROM CHUCK THAT TRUMP SAID A MEAN WORD AND IT MADE ME A CRY TO MY MOMMY SO I'M GOING TO COME AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO CALLING YOU A #### WITHOUT SAYING THE ACTUAL WORD" Booker?

Too bad you weren't there with your reasoned debate, I suppose.
   178. DJS, the Digital Dandy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:16 PM (#5611127)
Too bad you weren't there with your reasoned debate, I suppose.

You're the one bragging about adult behavior, I'm not. It's your cross to bear.
   179. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5611128)
"Exactly what funding levels would you support for military spending? Keep in mind that the people in Democratic leadership are a bunch of America-haters."

Take it down to pre-Gulf War 1990 levels, adjusted for inflation in order to help balance the budget.
   180. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5611129)
In Atlanta I get JWR for just under $30 a liter wholesale. In terms of cheaper Scotch Dewar's is a dollar cheaper, Grant's is about $11 cheaper, and Famous Grouse is $5 cheaper.
   181. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5611130)
I agree. But like I said, it won't be the first (or last) time that the Democrats sacrifice the interests of minorities in order to gain an electoral advantage.


Well sure, but as has been said, the Democrats really didn't have enough leverage to force a recalcitrant GOP to sign off on DACA (or DACA like) anyway. Just like they (GOP) can kill ACA anytime they decide they really really want to and like they were able to get their Tax farce done, they can do whatever they can manage to unify on, and as the minority the best the Democrats can do (for now) is score points either with the general public or by showing parts of the coalition that we still care enough to fight a bit.
   182. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:18 PM (#5611131)
Take it down to pre-Gulf War 1990 levels, adjusted for inflation in order to help balance the budget.

How about pre-Civil War levels? I want an old wooden cutter and a couple of old guys playing general!
   183. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5611132)
It's your cross to bear.

Over what you've written in these threads? Gladly.
   184. DJS, the Digital Dandy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5611134)
   185. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5611135)
It's like some people don't realize the GOP control every arm of the government and Obama is not in charge. So,like guys, the Democrats are limited as to what they can accomplish. Like, for real.
   186. Count Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:21 PM (#5611137)
176- the conservatives here have been talking pure horse race stuff, I would like to understand their actual positions and see why they support, or don't, the approach by the GOP, instead of talking about who "won" the shutdown. It's more interesting and more productive to do that and yes, I have strong opinions on the substance but can't really get into that while conservatives here refuse to take a position.
   187. DJS, the Digital Dandy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5611138)
Over what you've written in these threads? Gladly.

I'm just here for the lulz.
   188. bunyon Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5611139)
If the Ds want DACA resolved in time to matter they will have to give on the wall no matter how dumb the wall is. They’re in the minority so that’s how it works. If the get chip, daca and keep ACA from being entirely killed and can take either house in 2018 they’ll have done as well as could be expected.
   189. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5611141)
Well sure, but as has been said, the Democrats really didn't have enough leverage to force a recalcitrant GOP to sign off on DACA (or DACA like) anyway.Just like they can kill ACA anytime they decide they really really want to and like they were able to get their Tax farce done, they can do whatever they can manage to unify on, and as the minority the best the Democrats can do is score points either with the general public or by showing parts of the coalition that we still care enough to fight a bit.

I agree that a shutdown wasn't going to lead to a capitulation on DACA. But the threat did get CHIP reauthorized, which I'd argue most Democrats cared more about than DACA.

There's a very vocal minority who are outraged about Schumer caving after less than 3 days. That's cool: they can fundraise off of that. Schumer's job is to have activists pissed off at him for collaborating with the GOP.

If the Democrats were really outraged, then there would be a serious effort to strip him of his leadership position. But there isn't, since it's all political theatre. Senators from CA have their roles to play in this, just like Schumer has his.
   190. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:23 PM (#5611142)
Take it down to pre-Gulf War 1990 levels, adjusted for inflation in order to help balance the budget.


Near as I can tell, the DOD budget in 1990, in 2017 dollars, was about $580 billion. Trump has requested $603 billion, so not much of a difference.
   191. Count Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:24 PM (#5611144)
188- they gave in on the wall. Trump then backtracked from his prior position and rejected the deal because they now want to make radical restrictionist changes to immigration policy in exchange.
   192. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5611146)
If the Ds want DACA resolved in time to matter they will have to give on the wall no matter how dumb the wall is. They’re in the minority so that’s how it works. If the get chip, daca and keep ACA from being entirely killed and can take either house in 2018 they’ll have done as well as could be expected.

They should agree to fund the wall to get DACA through (at least partially), just because the eminent domain and environmental impact stuff will keep any actual construction from happening for longer than DJT will be in office. And a future Democratic president and congress can offer elimination of the unused funds as a reduction in domestic spending during a future budget fight.

So agree to give DJT $2B or $20B. It doesn't really matter since most of that money will never be spent.
   193. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5611147)
Too bad you weren't there with your reasoned debate, I suppose.

You're the one bragging about adult behavior, I'm not


Well obviously you shouldn’t be given your “YR USED A MEAN WORD I AM BLOCKING HIM FROM ASSAULTING MY SENSIBILITIES AGAIN” whining.
   194. McCoy Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5611148)
This seems straight out of a scene from In the Loop. I mean that movie was supposed to be a parody not a blueprint as to how to run a government.

Donald Trump takes the opioid crisis very seriously. Sure he does.
   195. Traderdave Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5611149)
You should send hotel restaurants an email. A lot of hotel restaurants will have PDR. The food may or may not be of the same quality as a stand alone restaurant but most places will have space, staff, and hardware to do your event. Plus if you're looking to spend 200 dollars they certainly can give it their full attention. Obviously don't expect a Holiday Inn or Marriott Courtyard to pull off 4/5 star restaurant food but if you go to a Kimpton or a highly regarded full service restaurant you should be able to get a good meal.


I did consider that but the hotels we'd have liked are across the bridge in SF. That would pinch some of the crowd that needs to get home early for kids plus many Uber/Lyft drivers will refuse to take you over the bridge. BART works for some but also involves an Uber and a late night arrival in a sketchy BART station. We decided to keep it in the East Bay to make it as easy for guests as possible.
   196. The Good Face Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5611152)
That JW spends their money on advertising rather than making a whisky that can rise to "Whatever" quality is not an upside. If you're at a bar where JW Red is the cheapest scotch ... like, don't drink the scotch. JW Red is bottom of the barrel quality (if that), but it's still ~2X bottom of the barrel price.


Pretty sure that's a relic of you living a state that does it's best to jack up booze prices. Because I can get JWR for like $13 a bottle. It's possible there's a better, even cheaper scotch out there, but assuming you're somebody that's happy drinking JWR, why bother? Unless, as I said before, you're some kind of hobo, or are obsessed with penny pinching. Besides, what if you buy a bottle of alternative rotgut for $11.99 and it turns out you hate the stuff? There are actually a few decent bourbons out there available for $20 or less a bottle, but there are plenty more that are downright terrible. If I liked (and could only afford) a $15 bottle, I'd be hesitant to drop $14 on an unknown quantity.
   197. Zonk, Bearer of Responsibility Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5611153)
I'm just here for the lulz.


In fairness, however unintentionally - he replaces the ones he takes.
   198. BDC Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:32 PM (#5611154)
Somebody gave me that bottle of Johnnie Walker Red, so I am even further ahead :)
   199. Joe Bivens Recognizes the Kenyan Precedent Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:32 PM (#5611156)
You're the one bragging about adult behavior, I'm not




Well obviously you shouldn’t be given your “YR USED A MEAN WORD I AM BLOCKING HIM FROM ASSAULTING MY SENSIBILITIES AGAIN” whining.


In case you're still blocked.

Hey, I thought Mexico was paying for the wall? That's what we were promised.
   200. dlf Posted: January 22, 2018 at 03:33 PM (#5611160)
In Atlanta I get JWR for just under $30 a liter wholesale. In terms of cheaper Scotch Dewar's is a dollar cheaper, Grant's is about $11 cheaper, and Famous Grouse is $5 cheaper.


My wife will occasionally have a rusty nail; we keep a bottle of the bird just for that. About once a year, I start to get nostalgic for my grandfather who passed away many years ago so I'll have what he'd have. He drank Dewars poured slowly over a single small ice cube. Not my drink of choice, but the memories are nice.

The last time I brought alcohol to a meetup nobody drank it. Besides I'm thinking Krog Street Market won't be too thrilled to see me roll up with a bottle of alcohol.


Well, it could accidentally fall into the backseat of dlf's car ... I'm sure it would find a great home with lovely people willing to care for the poor orphan.
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