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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
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Now, there's always a place for moonshine.
It's taken me far too long to formulate a good retort here, but it occurs to me that you could have developed a taste for gin during your Dickensian youth.
The reason so many Jews supported the Civil Rights movement is that (a) it was the right thing to do because (b) we well remembered being the ones discriminated against, in many places over many ages.
That did not, however, stop Jews from also supporting their own, and being tribal or clannish as the case may be. Jews supported charity, but they supported Jewish charities first and foremost. When I was growing up, the defining question with respect to any politician, issue or event was -- "Is it good for the Jews?"
From your lips to G-d's ears. Please, let it happen, and let him get the nomination.
And let Bobby Jindal be his VP nominee.
My girlfriend's worst alcohol experiences all involve Kraken. I assume this supports your statement.
And picking up right where he left off on the ol' campaign trail.
Out here, everyone votes for the Democrat. In the incoming state legislature, 44 of 51 representatives are Democrats, and 24 out of 25 of the Senators. It was not always quite that one-sided since I have been here, but it has pretty much always been a super-majority. There are historical reasons for it, dating back to the Republican party's identification with the Big 5 companies that controlled the State for many years, until the Democratic Revolution of 1955, led in part by the returning AJA's, including Dan Inouye.
Saul, Sie hat fil seykhl vi in kloyster mezuzes.
You mean Poland. Having to deal with the Russians refined theirs with pain.
Single-malt Scotch makes them wet their panties.
Wait, he's a shallow and spineless hypocrite?
Who knew?
As for comparing Asian-Americans to Jewish-Americans, I'd love it if we ever got to a point where voters simply didn't care about the ethnic persuasion of Asian-American candidates the way they don't particularly care about a Jewish candidate's religion, and Asian-Americans were active in regional and national politics in the way Jewish-Americans are, but that's just not the reality. There were 39 Jewish members of Congress this year, and exactly one Asian-American congressperson. That's a
You might think it's racist for me to want to vote for Asian-Americans; I would argue the refusal to acknowledge the near-total exclusion of Asian-American representation at federal levels as a problem is more racist.
All things being equal eh? Well that's a new qualifier. I suppose everyone would vote for a candidate for all sorts of frivolous reasons, all things being equal. And here I was thinking that your devotion to nominees was solely based on their racial characteristics, when you've now clarified that this particular ethnic dedication is really more of a tiebreaker, all things being equal and all.
I cheerfully withdraw my contentions. Excelsior!
I think it's weird that you're treating Indian-Americans, Chinese-Americans, Japanese-Americans and Philippinos as all the same. How does electing a Mongolian make a Taiwanese kid know that the process is open to him.
I'm relatively sympathetic to your argument, but I don't understand why you're lumping in everyone from the largest continent on Earth together. Indian people have more in common with Celts than Chinese.
It's fine to vote for anyone because of their race/ethnicity/gender/sexuality as long as
a) that person is otherwise qualified and acceptable to you to do the job.
b) that persons' race/ethnicity/gender/sexuality etc. is underrepresented in government.
Like, it would be kinda weird to vote for an Asian man for San Francisco Board of Supervisors (even Mayor?) BECAUSE that person was Asian. But Congress? Senate? Governor? Sure, nothing wrong with that. It's a little arbitrary, but so it whole process.
This is the whole basis for affirmative action and diversity programs. No, "one" (i.e, RAY) can argue that these types of things are wrong FROM FIRST MORAL PRINCIPLES... but it's an imperfect world we live in.
It's like like politicalfangraphs.com publishes the pZips projections for the Senate so we can objectively compare candidates.
One of the reasons I voted for Obama (in 2004) was that I thought that a Black dude as president makes a great example to the nation and the rest of the world. I think the same would be true of Hilary. Of course, I wouldn't vote for a Romney or McCain of any color... but I might have been more likely to toss my vote away like I did in 1996 (rather than vote for Clinton) or 2000 (voted for Nader).
This may seem "wrong" - BUT IT'S BECAUSE THEY ARE ALL BROWN PEOPLE. I mean, I could say "Yellow" people, but actually I think electing a kid from Guatemala has nearly the same effect on the Taiwanense as the Mongolian.
Brown people - including all shades of Asian - etc - sure as #### know they are not the same color as the vast majority of the movers and shakers in the US (and Europe as well). I met a woman who was SE Asian of some variety who worked for Roche in New Jersey. PhD, biochemistry or molecular biology. Mid-level in the company (not a director or anything) They were restructuring or something and offered to move a bunch of folks to Switzerland. She refused -- "too brown" she told me.
Because the inclusion of one ethic outside into the process suggests that more is possible.
Zenbitz gets it. I live in a small city were nearly two-thirds of the population is of Asian descent, and the city council is lousy with Asians. I don't feel a particular need to push any agendas here.
Unless, of course, they're white Latinos. I've made enough ethnicity-crossing mistakes trying to match the names on my class roster with the faces in front of me to understand the sentiment. (Filipinos with Spanish names are especially likely to be confusing.) I will say at this point that if I ever saw an all-white class (I won't, of course), I'd find it weird.
Huh? Have you been studying under Lassus in the BBTF School of Pedantry? This entire discussion has been over your (and Gonfalon Bubble's) theory that incumbency is more powerful now than it was decades ago (a theory with which I disagree). Given that, how exactly was my use of the word "powerful" some sort of dishonest offense?
94 is obviously bigger than 91, but the relevance of that obvious truth to this discussion is up for debate. Your entire theory is based on a measly 3-percentage-point difference in a statistical analysis of two imbalanced samples with cherry-picked endpoints. You also steadfastly refuse to acknowledge that a lot of at-risk incumbents have, in recent years, tended to retire rather than risk losing and being tossed out of office. And yet I'm the one arguing dishonestly. Utterly comical.
In the eternal words of John McEnroe, "You cannot be serious!"
In 1994, 20 Dem incumbents retired and watched as their seats were won by Republicans. In 2010, in addition to the 52 Dem incumbents who lost reelection, an additional 12 Dem incumbents retired and watched as their seats were won by Republicans.
Are you seriously claiming that despite your belief that incumbency is more powerful now than it was 20 or 30 years ago, all those Dems — 32 just in the two elections in 1994 and 2010 — walked away from House seats they were likely to retain, and did so knowing that their seats were likely to be won by Republicans?
That study was conducted in 1995. You're citing a 17-year-old study to advance your theory that incumbency is stronger now than it was 30 years ago?
LOL. In your world, strong incumbents just happen to get sick of the trappings of office and retire in years that large numbers of incumbents from their party get tossed out of office. Very convenient, that.
I'm now hearing that Republicans are doing their damnedest to push Kerry for Secretary of State while blocking Rice essentially because Kerry joining Obama's cabinet makes it more likely that Scott Brown will be able to win the resulting open Massachusetts' Senate seat. While this stretches my credulity, the state of the GOP is such that it wouldn't remotely suprise me. After all, it's only a small subset of McConnell's 'our primary goal over the next four years is to ensure Obama is a one term President,' and holding our credit rating hostage.
This is correct, and often true of people used to continuous electrical service, instant on appliances, DSL, 500 channels of cable, and so on, especially in areas rarely hit by natural disasters. An infrastructure that took decades to establish isn't always repaired in a couple of days.
You're aware that The Good Face isn't a black woman, right?
Seriously, though, this is absolutely true. Look at how poorly the Republicans played their hand, and how many disadvantages they had in 2012, and they still, somehow, came close. The party pretty much did everything wrong, and got 47% of the vote. Nominated the most loathed candidate in decades, had no idea where they stood in polling and therefore didn't bother to make adjustments, had state parties running 50 different GOTV efforts, faced an improving economy, a signficant majority of voters blamed sluggish improvements on Bush, not Obama, their economic platform was 'let's party like it's 2007!', their abortion platform was basically, 'no, never', it goes on and on.
And yet, "your group" keeps voting for politicians who make no secret of their belief that "your group" is already over-represented in America’s best schools and best jobs, and vow to take corrective measures. Quite strange.
All things being equal, do white candidates better represent white Americans? (Let me guess: It’s racist to even ask such a question.)
If a white person even hinted that she voted for a candidate because of the candidate’s skin color, she’d be labeled a racist without a second thought. But “Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim” admits he’d vote for candidates of the opposite party based solely on ethnicity, and he’s “giving a gift to his children,” or something — and his fellow lefties are "loath to judge."
The double standards crafted by and for the left get more shameless by the day.
Jack this made me laugh, which may be a sign of my bad-person-ness.
I haven't posted here in years.
To be fair, the debate on the merits of his stance is taking place within the lefty element on this thread.
How many of the several dozen lefties in this thread have called him a racist, which they would have done within about 3 milliseconds if a white person made similar statements?
Or not, I guess.
Reverse racism isn't an argument worthy of a restaurant dumpster.
Yes. It is easier to represent (in arguments on the internet or in the halls of power) people with the same life experience as oneself. Female politicians - everything else being equal - represent women better than men do, and so on. Which does not mean all women represent women better than men or anything like that, the qualifier everything else being equal is doing much heavy lifting here.
Except for all the liberals who are judging (Not all of which I agree with - a fractious lot we are). I still think an argument can be made - on diversity grounds - to assigning extra credit to candidates who are not the dominant group in power (not always white & male as discussed upthread).
Personally the only judgement I have made of LA El Hombre is he either doesn't know Jindal well enough or his "too crazy" line is well right of mine, but since it was all hypothetical I figured no biggie, which is why I (and others) called out the shameful and unamerican comments as out of line (Maybe you thought it was Conservative Mouse doing that posting or something).
So what exactly double standard are you claiming to see?
Well I didn't call him racist. To the best of my recollection I have never called anyone racist in this thread. Racism clearly exists, but it is a fools game to parse out the motivation of specific acts (except the truly out there ones, obviously).
I took yesterday off.
Anyway, it's always fun to hear from the Alinsky wannabes. Have you ever won a debate on the merits or do you just sling insults? Perhaps we can discuss the topic of media bias again, so you can make a fool of yourself for the hundredth time.
Youth liked Clinton, disliked Bush, and like Obama. That is many years of generational bad news. I don't think attitudes are set in stone or anything, but the GOP better hope those attitudes are very changeable. Maybe The Good Face should add a point about the GOP figuring out a message for the youth (though it was sort of addressed if I remember right but some of the other points).
"The youth" is drowning in student-loan debt and can't find good jobs. At some point, being cool might not be enough for the Dems.
He's not interested in a double standard - the perceived "racism" of any individuals on the left he is claiming is used to justify continuing institutional racism. Forwarding the idea that "lefties are racist!" serves the dual purpose of inoculating himself from criticism on this score because of "hypocrisy!" as well as "proving" that this is the natural order of things.
Yes, yes, Asian-Americans have been oppressed so much, they're the highest-educated and highest-earning demographic in America, despite generally having weaker roots in the U.S. than their black, white, and Latino counterparts.
No, actually it was the one where you made an inadvertent admission against interest:
Hmm, what would we call it when certain stories are reported and others aren't, or when stories are "framed" in a certain way? Ah, yes: Media bias.
Not to speak for him, but I don't think he was disputing the existence of "Media Bias", I think he was disputing whether seeing liberal ideology as the source of that bias is a useful perspective.
No, he was disputing the existence of media bias.
Demerara rum (Lemon Hart is my favorite brand), that's rum. Rich and dark without being cloying. It mixes well (it's the fundamental base spirit in both versions of the Zombie), and in particular it mixes well with other rums. Jamaican amber rums (Appleton), light Virgin Islands rums (Cruzan is a really solid option at its price).
I have a bottle of Smith & Cross pot-still rum that has some of the character of a single-malt scotch, it's a whole lot of fun. I recently mixed a version of a Last Word cocktail, but substituted Smith & Cross for the gin and increased the amount of base liquor - 1 rum, .5 green chartreuse, .5 cointreau, .5 lime. (I realized that the Last Word recipe looked a lot like a daiquiri or rum daisy, just with gin instead of rum and added chartreuse. So it totally works, and the smokiness of the rum mixes well with the aromatic chartreuse.)
Now, place-name-dropping I'm much better at...a couple years ago I went up to the mountain monastery where they make (or used to make?) Chartreuse. A really cool place, even if you don't like the drink. The monks' quarters are a bit like the sky cells in the Eyrie. A door connects you to the common hallway, and your cell consists of three walls and open air off the side of the mountain.
I lived in South Africa for a year, and Stroh Rum is quite popular there for it's extremely high ABV (available in 160 proof) and relatively low cost.
Tom Ricks to MSNBC: You’re just like Fox, only not as good at it
A link within that link tells of the immediate aftermath of Ricks's FOX appearance:
BTW here's the link to Tom's Defense Blog, which is read all across the political spectrum.
I'm in Princeton this week and next. It's a 45 minute ride on Jersey Transit to the city. Tuesday and Wednesday nights work best. Thursday's travel day.
I consider Poland to be a province of Mother Russia.
We know (okay, I'm 30, but I'm only a year out of school), but we've also noticed they're better at producing jobs than Republicans, and support us better when we can't, both of which go a long way. Republicans may be good for the stock market (-ish), but Democrats are much better at the unemployment rate (and the median salary, if maybe not the mean).
Dude, he uses his super scientific ToughtPrint technique to 'read between the lines.' It's not like he's just making #### up.
Dude knows what he's talking about.
Chris Rock offered a counter-point. I think he was mostly serious when he said that the white folks in his audience wouldn't want to switch places with him.
I'm not saying I agree. But I have no idea what kind of petty issues he has to deal with because of race.
"Black Like Me" made a powerful impression on me when I first read it, but I have no idea how it would play out today. Particularly for a wealthy black man.
The most disturbing thing posted in 10450+ entries in this thread is that spike is on the wagon.
/edit - I have 4 gigs in the next 8 days, including one at the Clermont Lounge - we'll see how long this wagon business lasts.
You are dead to me.
I think the only invocation of science came when another poster said evolutionary theory made voting for Hindis adaptive or something. I think I'm mainly offering opinion here, but I do notice my request for the neurophysiological correlate of these hard-coded evolutionary adaptations went unfilled.
Black Maple Hill for regular drinking. Pappy Van Winkle for fancy drinkin'. You're welcome.
I don't often drink rum, but when I do, I prefer Pyrat.
Well now that I've been informed that there is no such thing as a "good American" I think you can allay such fears.
But of course you didn't offer such nuance in your original post outlining your racist voting preferences. Now it's "all things being equal" and "non-crazy", but earlier you were claiming support for anti-science religious zealot Jindal simply because you liked his inborn genetics above all else:
Suit yourself. I don't see how you do anyone a service by elevating racial heritage above such significant considerations as, you know, objective reality, but I'm sure plenty of black voters supported Marion Berry post-crack bust because he too had the correct ethnicity, which trumped all other concerns as to character or competence, as is their right.
The Pew research on media bias in the 2012 election has already been published, but I'm sure Fox will tell you to ignore them.
pity he didn't get to say that live on Fox...
"Not worthy of engagement," "shifted the goalposts," not interested in "honest discussion" — not exactly full-blown Alinsky, but it was a decent effort.
The only people who need "refined thinking" on this topic are people like you who deny that there's substantial liberal media bias in the U.S.
I can't imagine anyone who lived through the 2000 election and the run-up to the glorious Iraq War can doubt the existence of media bias.
I particularly loved the bit about how he;'d dress up in good clothes, stand on a street corner across from a church, just to see the expression on the old white ladies leaving church change from peaceful to scowling when they saw him...
I had an aunt like that, someone brown or black flitted into view and she scowled, it was like an involuntary twitch... she ended up with a couple of black culture loving grandchildren... served her right.
There's a nuanced discussion to be had about media bias. By hand-waving away the scholarship on the subject, you've shown you're unwilling to engage in it.
(Yet you still think Asian-Americans vote stupid.) The point needs to be made: I've never said that Asian-Americans are oppressed on this thread. I've only said that they are under-represented at the higher levels of politics.
I don't think it's wrong to want to support politicans who share my background and cultural outlook — that's how most people vote. I don't think it's wrong to want more Asian-Americans in higher office. I'm not saying they should get some break for getting there, or even that other people should vote for them based on their race; it's just for me. Early black and women candidates didn't get into office without massive support from black and female voters, respectively. We're at that point in history where Asian-Americans are starting to become active in politics, and I believe that the movement in general is more important than most policy sticking points.
So you're claiming that the "systemic factors that go into determining which stories get covered, how they get framed, etc.," do not involve liberal media bias in any way, shape, or form? If so, in what unbiased ways are the problems "systemic"? Do news outlets have incompetent assignment editors? Are reporters simply incompetent when it comes to framing stories in a neutral manner, but incompetent in a bias-free way?
Yes, yes, I know: The non-liberals here are all partisan hacks who only spout the party talking points, while the liberals here are all gloriously open-minded in their approach to the issues of the day. Hooray for the BBTF liberals.
As I recall, the single link you posted in August was presented as the dispositive "scholarship" on the issue, while you hand-waved the links Good Face and I posted.
When a biased hack like David Chalian, who was in charge of Yahoo!'s political coverage, is exposed for what he is but still gets hired within months by an even more influential outlet, it's clear the media isn't even pretending to be unbiased anymore.
We know (okay, I'm 30, but I'm only a year out of school), but we've also noticed they're better at producing jobs than Republicans, and support us better when we can't, both of which go a long way. Republicans may be good for the stock market (-ish)....
Not according to that left wing network, Fox Business News.
History Shows Stocks, GDP Outperform Under Democrats
Time to rethink. GOP or third party? Dilemma indeed.
So I'm subject to my "own selective (biased!) perceptions," but somehow all of those news reporters — over 90 percent of whom admit to voting for Dems — manage to set their "selective (biased!) perceptions" aside every day when they walk into work, without fail?
This pathetic hack was the D.C. bureau chief for Yahoo!, and was the political director at ABC News before that. Are we to believe his reporting, story selection, etc., was down the middle, despite his obvious intense dislike of Republicans and the Republican Party?
A former co-worker introduced me to sipping rum. You can only get it at certain times of the year, but El Dorado 15 is superb. Their other products are none too shabby, but this is certainly a case of getting what you pay for. Never had their 21.
Flor de Cana is pretty good. I like their products better than any but the El Dorado 15.
My first preference would typically be a good single malt whiskey, but I prefer a good sipping rum to a second rate whiskey, and the price is generally a heck of a lot better.
And for Ray -- what's your preference in ports? I've dabbled some here, and I've found it is certainly a case of getting what you pay for.
Stand tall dp, don't rehash the argument. Instead find something I have written in the last few days that is stupid and argue with that. Heck if you want I'll say something stupid (stupider?) and let you win the argument. Media bias arguments bad.
And also to update, the rum baron my friend knows is of the Angostura family (of Trinidad not the Dominican). My memory is useless.
He thought that, and then he realized that he would be thrown in jail unless he paid the government a good chunk of his income.
Tawny 30 is my favorite, which is actually better than Tawny 40 - which costs more.
He didn't say "black people" he said "blah people".
As I am open to all liquor suggestions I actually stopped by the Port aisle of my local Lidl just now. I literally know nothing about port, but they had a bottle of it with "Tawny" written on the label for £3.99. That price is right for me to give it a shot! Or is it possible my tawny is not precisely the same thing as your tawny?
If it's not wrong to support politicians who share one's background and cultural outlook, then why do you keep complaining that Asian-Americans are underrepresented at the highest levels of government? There are a lot more whites, blacks, and Latinos than Asian-Americans, so if people generally vote as you suggest, the status quo isn't a problem at all. It's just the natural order of things.
What "movement" is that?
I actually tried that in my dabbling. And it was excellent.
It's generally not my first choice, but it suits me nicely in certain moods.
Because we all know that signing the Panama Canal treaty was the beginning of U.S. decline in world affairs...
I can't see that being tawny, unless its an exceptionally bad batch that was contaminated with rat #### or something. A quart of Taylor Fladgate Tawny 30 is $153.29 at my local (government run) store.
Well, now that I'm more educated, I'm less likely to support the GOP. Funny how that works.
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