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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   10601. zonk Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4311721)
I don't know. Why do you want the same government that couldn't manage the Panama Canal to maximum profitability to control the healthcare system for 312,000,000 people?


Because unlike the Panama Canal, which is about commerce -- "we" (or at least, I) don't see health care in the same light, where the goal isn't/shouldn't be "maximum profitability".

   10602. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4311724)
Drum makes a fine point about the demographics of branding and the youth vote:


You'll note that Reagan was quite popular among the 20 somethings- that cohort is now 50ish
Romney won among 45-64 year olds by 51 to 47%

There was one age cohort that Obama did better in 2012 than 2008- 30 to 44 year olds (some of whom were in the 18-29 cohort in 2008)...

In 2000, Bush won only one age cohort- 30 to 49 year olds- again those were 20 somethings when Reagan was President...

But while people tend to stay with one party, they don't always - 65+ year olds were Romney's best cohort, but 12 years ago the 50-64 cohort voted for Gore 50-48% over Bush- obviously some Gore voters in that cohort in 2000 went for Romney in 2012 [which if I may speculate quite frankly has to do with gay marriage and Obama's race and does not mean that today's 50 somethings will become more conservative as they pass retirement age]
   10603. zonk Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4311726)


You'll note that Reagan was quite popular among the 20 somethings- that cohort is now 50ish
Romney won among 45-64 year olds by 51 to 47%

There was one age cohort that Obama did better in 2012 than 2008- 30 to 44 year olds (some of whom were in the 18-29 cohort in 2008)...

In 2000, Bush won only one age cohort- 30 to 49 year olds- again those were 20 somethings when Reagan was President...

But while people tend to stay with one party, they don't always - 65+ year olds were Romney's best cohort, but 12 years ago the 50-64 cohort voted for Gore 50-48% over Bush- obviously some Gore voters in that cohort in 2000 went for Romney in 2012 [which if I may speculate quite frankly has to do with gay marriage and Obama's race and does not mean that today's 50 somethings will become more conservative as they pass retirement age]


Bingo regarding Reagan -- but regarding the last item, I think it's worth noting that the (Churchill, I think?) cliche about people naturally becoming more conservative (how does it go? A young person not liberal has no heart, an older person not conservative has no brain or something like that?) is and has actually always been flat out wrong... Party ID does very much tend to calcify.
   10604. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4311732)
Man, that's really non-responsive. And government run healthcare in this country is doing pretty well for people who use Medicare/Medicaid. Or are you saying that they're not being taken care of?

As I said earlier, I don't have a problem with Panama controlling the canal, but it's unclear why the U.S. was in any way obligated to give it to Panama, or how it was in the U.S.'s best interests to just give away a strategic asset that now generates $800 million per year in profits.

As for Medicaid, I wouldn't want it to be my health plan.

I actually wish we had a government run system that I can pay into, it would probably be cheaper for me, and I can pay in time and less money instead of a lot of money that I do right now if I get sick.

Like a catastrophic-care plan? Those have been available for years, but Obamacare might be the end of them.
   10605. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4311734)
From the Stevens piece in the Post from #10566:

The Obama organization ran a great campaign. In my world, the definition of the better campaign is the one that wins.


At the local level this is definitely not always true. I was in a state house district in which the incumbent made only one campaign appearance, at a dinner at which he fell asleep. He won something like 60-40 over a hard working and motivated third party candidate. If the incumbent had run a solid campaign it would've been 80-20 or something like that. This happens not infrequently, when no-hopers make a good show of it against a lazy incumbent and crack 40%. I think this is theoretically possible at the level of the Presidency -- Mondale, for example, probably could have out-campaigned Regan and still lost by 200+ EC votes.

Has there ever been a Presidential election in which the loser clearly ran a better campaign than the winner? And has there been one in the TV era?
   10606. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4311736)
At the local level this is definitely not always true. I was in a state house district in which the incumbent made only one campaign appearance, at a dinner at which he fell asleep. He won something like 60-40 over a hard working and motivated third party candidate. If the incumbent had run a solid campaign it would've been 80-20 or something like that.


If you know you're going to win regardless, do you really even "run a campaign?"
   10607. McCoy Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4311737)
A young person not liberal has no heart, an older person not conservative has no brain or something like that?) is and has actually always been flat out wrong... Party ID does very much tend to calcify.

As I mentioned before it isn't so much an individual changing his mind as he gets older but the fact that as the group gets older more and more people from that group vote. So two things happen. One the extremists from one side tend to balance out the extremist from the other side as they start to vote and two, what was considered liberal 20 years earlier has now become more mainstream and even possibly conservative in the present day. So if you're motivated enough in the political process to vote at 18 or so you probably aren't going to change your political lean much as the years go by. But if you didn't really care much at that age by the time you do start voting the things you care about will be mainstream enough that you'll care more about other issues when deciding to vote and those other issues that you care about at an older age tend to be conservative issues.
   10608. zonk Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4311739)
Like a catastrophic-care plan? Those have been available for years, but Obamacare might be the end of them.


Why shouldn't they be over? With the prohibition against lifetime spending caps in the base plan, it eliminates what catastrophic care plans always were to begin with: an upsell boondoggle that the seller of the base plan was ingeniously able to create.

It would have been like car manufacturers deciding to sell cars together with engines, bodies, wheels, etc... but only offering drive-trains as a separate add-on.
   10609. McCoy Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4311743)
Has there ever been a Presidential election in which the loser clearly ran a better campaign than the winner? And has there been one in the TV era?

The word "clearly" causes all kinds of problems because victory tends to cloud the subject. Just like in football one can say the loser clearly should have won but didn't but you can't really say the loser clearly won the game but lost in the final score.


   10610. Tripon Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4311745)
The 1960 election between Nixon and Kennedy should be up there. If it wasn't for the TV debates, Nixon probably becomes president 8 years earlier.
   10611. McCoy Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:50 PM (#4311747)
Hell, if it wasn't for Nixon's 50 state campaign he would have gotten elected in 1960 and not just because all that traveling led to the injury that made him look like a pale sweaty freak in the debate.
   10612. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4311750)
   10613. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4311766)
One the extremists from one side tend to balance out the extremist from the other side as they start to vote and two, what was considered liberal 20 years earlier has now become more mainstream and even possibly conservative in the present day


The Democrats of 2012 are the party of socially moderate tweaks to existing programs and fiscal sanity. They're basically the 1982-92 era GOP. Barack Obama is George H. W. Bush with a tan.

The GOP of 2012 are reactionary, not conservative.
   10614. Tripon Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4311768)
10612. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 28, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4311750)
FOX News' new alert scares Megyn Kelly.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/dorsey/terrifying-fox-news-alert-terrifies-fox-news-hos


They probably should change that url link at the end.
   10615. GregD Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4311769)
You can make a case that Ford ran a better campaign than Carter in 76. Stevenson in 52 certainly ran an interesting campaign; he had no chance to win no matter what so it's hard to figure out whether it was better than Ike's. The Reps actually ran good campaigns all things considered against FDR in 40 and 44; it wasn't 36 all over again. There's probably some level at which Al Smith ran a good campaign in 28 but it didn't matter since a Dem couldn't win without the South and no one could keep the South behind a Catholic once Heflin made the issue central (and if he hadn't someone else would have.)

My dad always says that Humphrey in 68 ran a much better campaign than anyone expected, and made a close race out of something that looked like a catastrophe in the summer.
   10616. spike Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:13 PM (#4311772)
FOX News' new alert scares Megyn Kelly.

Megyn Kelly in GIF form has quite a bit more je ne sais quois
   10617. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4311775)
Has there ever been a Presidential election in which the loser clearly ran a better campaign than the winner? And has there been one in the TV era?


I think GHW Bush ran a marginally better campaign than Bill Clinton did. Of course he was essentially running against 2 opponents and that fractured his campaigns attention. I suspect Nixon/Kennedy is a better example though.
   10618. Ron J2 Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:17 PM (#4311777)
If you know you're going to win regardless, do you really even "run a campaign?"


I used to enjoy the old SSI computer game "President Elect". One of the things I liked to experiment with was the absolute minimum you could do and still win in some of the very one sided campaigns.

According to the game, Nixon could have done absolutely no campaigning and refused to debate and would still usually win in 1972.
   10619. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4311778)
FOX News' new alert scares Megyn Kelly.
I'm always surprised at how good looking Megyn Kelly is. It's like she gets more attractive every time I look at her.
   10620. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4311780)
Has there ever been a Presidential election in which the loser clearly ran a better campaign than the winner? And has there been one in the TV era?


Ford (debate gaffe aside) likely ran a better campaign than Carter, which is why he almost pulled it out despite Watergate, pardoning Nixon, sitting on his thumbs as Saigon fell, and trailing badly during the summer... though "better" is a relative term, Carter was not a good campaigner and his primary win was inexplicable in the first place.

I'm not sure Bush 1 ran a notably worse campaign than Clinton, and in his quixotic way Perot out-campaigned either of them...
   10621. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4311782)
Of for ####'s sake, Joe wants the US to own the Panama Canal for the same reason Reagan and McCain and all of the righties of the 80s wanted to retain it, which is the same reason the righties are aghast at leaving Iraq or Afghanistan. They have an animal-level instinctual belief that when you take territory, you never relinquish it again. It's part of the drive toward empire.

And if there's a part of the electorate that's diminishing almost as fast as angry white men, it's people who give a #### about planting and maintaining puppet governments all over the globe.
   10622. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:27 PM (#4311787)
Bip.
   10623. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4311788)
Carter was not a good campaigner and his primary win was inexplicable in the first place.


Carter (if my memory is correct) ran through the primaries in a different way than before. He used the spread out nature of the primaries back then to his advantage by focusing hard on Iowa and using that win to win down the line, sort of bootstrapping his way up. He was also different for a Democrat. I remember folks commenting how he was a "ray of light" at the time because he was so different than the others (and the generic Democrat), including his (at the time) optimism.

In some ways it was the mirror image of the GOP this year, where Carter was one of the few conservatives in the field and the liberals failed to rally to an anyone but Carter candidate and so he slogged along collecting delegates. He was helped by being an outsider at a time Watergate made being an insider a bad thing.
   10624. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4311791)
Thanks for all of these answers. 2012 was the first time I ever really paid attention to the horse race aspect of the national campaigns, so I hadn't spent any time thinking about the question.
   10625. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4311793)
Why shouldn't they be over? With the prohibition against lifetime spending caps in the base plan, it eliminates what catastrophic care plans always were to begin with: an upsell boondoggle that the seller of the base plan was ingeniously able to create.

What does this "base plan" cost? Also, the idea that there's a "prohibition against lifetime spending caps" is pure fantasy in a single-payer system, let alone in a system of private insurers.
   10626. Lassus Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4311794)
Barack Obama is George H. W. Bush with a tan.

And yet you still wonder why the BTF kids cry when you and Szym fight. It's our fault, isn't it?
   10627. Tripon Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:48 PM (#4311797)
Are we done talking about Panama?
   10628. spike Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4311800)
...and from the don't know whether to laugh or cry dept., Erick Erickson and Karen Handel are considering a primary run against Saxby Chambliss.
   10629. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4311801)
Are we done talking about Panama?


Are you hoping the answer is yes or hoping the answer is no?
   10630. DA Baracus Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4311803)
Are we done talking about Panama?


No.
   10631. DA Baracus Posted: November 28, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4311806)
...and from the don't know whether to laugh or cry dept., Erick Erickson and Karen Handel are considering a primary run against Saxby Chambliss.


I hate this. Either one of them is going to win or Chambliss is going to win by moving to the left during the campaign (as he's already started to do) and then drop it when he's back in office. Vomit.
   10632. BrianBrianson Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:02 PM (#4311808)
I think it's worth noting that the (Churchill, I think?) cliche about people naturally becoming more conservative (how does it go? A young person not liberal has no heart, an older person not conservative has no brain or something like that?) is and has actually always been flat out wrong... Party ID does very much tend to calcify.


It's usually attributed to Churchill, but he said nothing of the sort; he was a Conservative at 15 and a Liberal at 35. link
   10633. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:10 PM (#4311813)
Pretty much any pithy saying can be and is attributed to Lincoln, Twain, or Churchill.
   10634. zenbitz Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:11 PM (#4311817)
Isn't the carving out of Columbia of an independent Panama -- or excuse me -- supporting the noble native Panamanian rebels against the Repressive Regime of Bogota' -- the origin of the phrase "Gunboat Diplomacy"?

/looks it up.

Well, not the origin, but a canonical example according to Wikipedia.
   10635. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4311819)
Pretty much any pithy saying can be and is attributed to Lincoln, Twain, or Churchill.
- Thomas Jefferson / Mahatma Gandhi / Martin Luther King, Jr.
   10636. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4311830)
"Pretty much any pithy saying can be 
and is attributed to Lincoln, Twain, 
or Churchill."
               
Winston Churchill 
   10637. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:38 PM (#4311831)
And yet you still wonder why the BTF kids cry when you and Szym fight. It's our fault, isn't it?


Well, yes. Well, yours, and Dan's. He put on a *lot* of weight after the pregnancy, and of course, you kids will suck the joy of life out of pretty much everything.
   10638. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:39 PM (#4311833)
One Upton down, one to go.
   10639. Steve Treder Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:40 PM (#4311835)
Pretty much any pithy saying can be and is attributed to Lincoln, Twain, or Churchill.

- Thomas Jefferson / Mahatma Gandhi / Martin Luther King, Jr.


- Will Rogers / H.L. Mencken / Theodore Roosevelt
   10640. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:43 PM (#4311837)
I hate this. Either one of them is going to win or Chambliss is going to win by moving to the left during the campaign (as he's already started to do) and then drop it when he's back in office. Vomit.


I guess it's *possible* that Eric Erickson puts together some sort of nutter-wing/######## coalition to run strongly against Chambliss from the right. Possible, but unlikely. There's a reason he moved from "flailing minor league wacko in Macon" to "blogger-turned-Fox-News-persona."

There's no way in hell Karen Handel beat Chambliss. I really don't see any way a Teaper challenge from the right untracks Chambliss. As you say, if he is threatened from the right, he pivots moderately left at which point he becomes, what, Sam Nunn with an R next to his name?
   10641. spike Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:44 PM (#4311839)
Upton to the Braves, 5/70-75 reported with a 6th year option. Clearly an Affirmative Action hire
   10642. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:47 PM (#4311844)
Pretty much any pithy saying can be and is attributed to Lincoln, Twain, or Churchill.


Oscar Wilde?
   10643. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:51 PM (#4311850)
If Primeys still existed, #10636 would win one.
   10644. spike Posted: November 28, 2012 at 06:52 PM (#4311851)
Sam Nunn? Chambliss won't have to go that far. Maybe Zell Miller.
   10645. DA Baracus Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4311853)
I guess it's *possible* that Eric Erickson puts together some sort of nutter-wing/######## coalition to run strongly against Chambliss from the right. Possible, but unlikely. There's a reason he moved from "flailing minor league wacko in Macon" to "blogger-turned-Fox-News-persona."

There's no way in hell Karen Handel beat Chambliss. I really don't see any way a Teaper challenge from the right untracks Chambliss. As you say, if he is threatened from the right, he pivots moderately left at which point he becomes, what, Sam Nunn with an R next to his name?


Sam Nunn is before my time, I don't know anything about him. I think Chambliss wins the primary, but it will be a nasty reflection of the right vs far right fight that is coming to parts of the country. Erickson? Handel? Price? Broun? Well, they'll win Cobb County. Neal Boortz was thrown around as a challenger, though it was never serious, but I wish he would because that would be a great source of humor. Chambliss is clearly threatened from the right, and he's clearly tracking towards the middle in response, and to questionable authenticity given that he's a turd of a person. And by moving to the center he'll make the already difficult task of a Democrat unseating him basically impossible.
   10646. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:08 PM (#4311858)
Sam Nunn is before my time, I don't know anything about him. I think Chambliss wins the primary, but it will be a nasty reflection of the right vs far right fight that is coming to parts of the country. Erickson? Handel? Price? Broun? Well, they'll win Cobb County. Neal Boortz was thrown around as a challenger, though it was never serious, but I wish he would because that would be a great source of humor. Chambliss is clearly threatened from the right, and he's clearly tracking towards the middle in response, and to questionable authenticity given that he's a turd of a person. And by moving to the center he'll make the already difficult task of a Democrat unseating him basically impossible.


You know who was a turd of a person? Mark Taylor. Or, as spike points out, Zell Miller. If Eric Erickson runs a Teahadi attack on Chambliss' right and that moves Chambliss back towards the Ben-Nelson-of-GA zone, well, that's a win for me. Hell, I might go vote in another GA GOP primary to help him out. I agree that it will be an ugly primary if the nutters run someone against him, but I think that's a good thing. The GOP - especially the GA state GOP - needs a healthy dose of sunlight.
   10647. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:14 PM (#4311862)
Erickson's candidacy is just another verse of the GOP's same sad song: People running not to lead or solve problems but to increase their exposure/marketability.
   10648. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:23 PM (#4311870)
Erickson's candidacy is just another verse of the GOP's same sad song: People running not to lead or solve problems but to increase their exposure/marketability.


I was dining in the hotel bar Monday night, and David Frum was on CNN*, and he made a really good observation, I think. He pointed out that the GOP never runs any candidate on a platform of ideas that will lead the nation. They always run on a platform of opposition to whatever the Dems are trying to do. There is no way this strategy wins them executive positions in any strong case, going forward. It may keep them the House for a while, though.

*other takeaways from this event; Frum seems vaguely sane these days; James Carville still terrifies me just to look at his mummy like visage; cable news advertising explains their demographics perfectly.
   10649. DA Baracus Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4311878)
I agree that it will be an ugly primary if the nutters run someone against him, but I think that's a good thing. The GOP - especially the GA state GOP - needs a healthy dose of sunlight.


I don't think that the sunlight will help in this one. I think we'll just get... burned.

I loathe Saxby Chambliss and want to see him lose, but then someone who infuriates me will win instead. Ugh.
   10650. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:43 PM (#4311885)
I loathe Saxby Chambliss and want to see him lose, but then someone who infuriates me will win instead. Ugh


I detest Saxby as much as the next semi-rational primate, but never close the door to the church man. You don't save the choir. You save sinners.
   10651. DA Baracus Posted: November 28, 2012 at 07:48 PM (#4311892)
I detest Saxby as much as the next semi-rational primate, but never close the door to the church man. You don't save the choir. You save sinners.


Ah, but I don't go to church.
   10652. Srul Itza Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:02 PM (#4311902)
Tun Sie Ihrer Mutter mit, dass Mund kussen


Not since she passed, 35 years ago.
   10653. Howie Menckel Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:16 PM (#4311918)

probably way late on this, but I saw moderate R Susan Collins of Maine doing a Debbie Downer on the Rice Secretary of State bid today after their meeting.

Is that the end of the line for Rice? Can anyone get 5 R votes without Collins being one of them these days?

Granted that Collins left a little wiggle room for "more information", but then she also strongly endorsed the Kerry idea, which seemed like a pretty clear signal to the White House...

   10654. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:22 PM (#4311924)
There's nothing "moderate" about Collins.
   10655. SteveF Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4311927)
There's nothing "moderate" about Collins.


Susan Collins votes with her party at the lowest rate of any Senator in either party. (Or at least did in the 112th Congress.)
   10656. Tripon Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4311929)
The White House should nominate Kerry, get a fresh face for the Mass. senate seat.
   10657. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4311931)
probably way late on this, but I saw moderate R Susan Collins of Maine doing a Debbie Downer on the Rice Secretary of State bid today after their meeting.

Is that the end of the line for Rice? Can anyone get 5 R votes without Collins being one of them these days?


If Rice gets voted down on a party line vote, that's just another nail in the Republicans' coffin, further continuation of their collective Obama Derangement Syndrome. This entire ridiculous episode is like 2012 version of Joe McCarthy's battle cry of "Who Promoted Peress?"
   10658. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:33 PM (#4311934)
Ah, but I don't go to church.


Sure you do. You just call it something else.
   10659. The District Attorney Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:35 PM (#4311939)
Bill James, responding to a comment on one of his politically-oriented pay site articles:
God bless Grover Norquist; he's the only guy in Washington who is standing up for YOU and against the lobbyists.
   10660. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4311940)
Granted that Collins left a little wiggle room for "more information", but then she also strongly endorsed the Kerry idea, which seemed like a pretty clear signal to the White House...


1. John Kerry *really wants the job.*

2. John Kerry is Susan Collins' friend.

3. Susan Collins will stump for her friend.

4. The GOP *really wants John Kerry to go to State.* (because that means Scott Brown gets to run for the Senate again, against a non-incumbent, having been an incumbent himself not two years prior.)

5. Susan Collins will stump for her party.

Agreed on the thought that opposing Susan Rice is a pyrrhic victory at best for the GOP.
   10661. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4311944)
Bill James, responding to a comment on one of his politically-oriented pay site articles:
God bless Grover Norquist; he's the only guy in Washington who is standing up for YOU and against the lobbyists.


What you mean, "YOU", Kemo Sabe?
   10662. Tripon Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:54 PM (#4311953)
....GROVER NORQUIST IS A LOBBYIST.
   10663. Steve Treder Posted: November 28, 2012 at 08:57 PM (#4311956)
Bill James, Bill James, Bill James. What can you do about Crazy Old Uncle Bill?
   10664. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 28, 2012 at 09:07 PM (#4311962)
Bill James, Bill James, Bill James. What can you do about Crazy Old Uncle Bill?

I've read his major books but don't follow his blog, but hasn't he come out with some of that Angry Old Man #### more than a few times before?
   10665. Tilden Katz Posted: November 28, 2012 at 09:07 PM (#4311963)
If Kerry gets Secretary of State, wouldn't Patrick appoint someone like Mike Capuano to the seat who would stick around for the special election? I'd like Capuano's chances against Brown. Though I'm one that thinks Brown's best bet is to run for governor in 2014.
   10666. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 28, 2012 at 09:09 PM (#4311965)
I've read his major books but don't follow his blog, but hasn't he come out with some of that Angry Old Man #### more than a few times before?
I can understand why anyone who defends Joe Paterno's actions on the Sandusky case would think Grover Norquist is teh awesome.
   10667. Steve Treder Posted: November 28, 2012 at 09:13 PM (#4311966)
Agreed on the thought that opposing Susan Rice is a pyrrhic victory at best for the GOP.

Yeah, the constituencies regarding which "winning" here matters would seem emphatically outnumbered by those in which it doesn't, or in which this is perceived as petty and annoying if not worse. It's the kind of mindless terrier-like smallball stuff that likely creates more enemies than friends. Everybody sees it for the hyperpartisan drama-queen silliness that it is.
   10668. Tilden Katz Posted: November 28, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4311970)
Not sure if anyone pays attention to politics down in my neck of the woods, but Virginia Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling has dropped out of the GOP gubernatorial primary, clearing the way for nutjob AG Ken Cuccinelli. Would love to see the Democrats capitalize on this opportunity, but I don't think Terry McAuliffe is the guy to do it.
   10669. zonk Posted: November 28, 2012 at 09:29 PM (#4311975)

1. John Kerry *really wants the job.*

2. John Kerry is Susan Collins' friend.

3. Susan Collins will stump for her friend.

4. The GOP *really wants John Kerry to go to State.* (because that means Scott Brown gets to run for the Senate again, against a non-incumbent, having been an incumbent himself not two years prior.)

5. Susan Collins will stump for her party.

Agreed on the thought that opposing Susan Rice is a pyrrhic victory at best for the GOP.


I'll add a 6. Susan Collins essentially just announced that she's not following Olympia Snowe into retirement and will be running in 2014.
   10670. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 28, 2012 at 09:31 PM (#4311976)
Agreed on the thought that opposing Susan Rice is a pyrrhic victory at best for the GOP.


Yeah, the constituencies regarding which "winning" here matters would seem emphatically outnumbered by those in which it doesn't, or in which this is perceived as petty and annoying if not worse. It's the kind of mindless terrier-like smallball stuff that likely creates more enemies than friends. Everybody sees it for the hyperpartisan drama-queen silliness that it is.

And when you add the racial aspect, it's just one more indication that the Republicans have simply written off the idea of expanding their share of the black vote beyond the Clarence Thomases and Thomas Sowells and a handful of anti-gay rights ministers. Going after Rice isn't major suicidal the way that harping on Rev. Wright would have been, but the net loss to the GOP is likely to be on the order of 10 to 1**, even if the total numbers won't be that big.

**Yes, a number pulled out of my hat. But how many votes are the Republicans going to attract with this newest obsession? And how many black and / or women voters in swing states might be reminded of this moronic crusade come next election time, and reminded of their Republican Senator's negative vote?
   10671. zonk Posted: November 28, 2012 at 09:35 PM (#4311977)
FYI... more certifications starting to come in...

Obama now at 50.9 -- looks almost certain to top 51% with a margin of victory that actually looks like it's going to be closer to 4%.

BTW - Dave Wasserman has a google docs spreadsheet he updates with certs, so it's been what I've been following.
   10672. McCoy Posted: November 28, 2012 at 09:41 PM (#4311978)
And people thought I was crazy for thinking Obama could win by 5 points.
   10673. Langer Monk Posted: November 28, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4311981)
Not sure if anyone pays attention to politics down in my neck of the woods, but Virginia Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling has dropped out of the GOP gubernatorial primary, clearing the way for nutjob AG Ken Cuccinelli. Would love to see the Democrats capitalize on this opportunity, but I don't think Terry McAuliffe is the guy to do it.


As the Post pointed out, the change in the primary structure made Bolling an enormous underdog. Anyway, the real blame is on the inability for anyone to run for (edit: immediate) re-election.
   10674. Tilden Katz Posted: November 28, 2012 at 10:00 PM (#4311987)
As the Post pointed out, the change in the primary structure made Bolling an enormous underdog. Anyway, the real blame is on the inability for anyone to run for (edit: immediate) re-election.


True. Though I am surprised that Bolling didn't try to get his pound of flesh from Cooch in the primary. He gave the usual "for the good of the party" platitudes but is also refusing to endorse.

Agree about the moronic reelection rule. I didn't (and would never) vote for McDonnell, but he's a far saner and competent option than Cuccinelli. I'd love to see Tom Periello run, but I'm not sure he'd be able to overcome the big money that McAullife will have.
   10675. Howie Menckel Posted: November 28, 2012 at 10:01 PM (#4311989)

Ok, so Collins is a right-wing hack who didn't care what Rice said in the meeting - she's a company man through and through, and is not to be seen as credible no matter what she says.

Check.

And the right-wingers who can't stand Collins for the most part won't use her now as the "voice of reason" in this case.

Just checking. Wouldn't want anyone to be cherry-picking a moderate's views...

   10676. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 28, 2012 at 10:21 PM (#4311999)
Does this really indicate that Collins is running for reelection? Seems to damage her standing in a blue state.
   10677. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 28, 2012 at 10:28 PM (#4312002)
Does this really indicate that Collins is running for reelection? Seems to damage her standing in a blue state.


Maine isn't a blue state. Maine is ####### weird.
   10678. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 28, 2012 at 10:31 PM (#4312003)
I guess I wouldn't know.
   10679. zonk Posted: November 28, 2012 at 10:37 PM (#4312008)
Does this really indicate that Collins is running for reelection? Seems to damage her standing in a blue state.


It's not the reelection, it's the potential primary... Stuff like this might keep people like the moron governor from considering a challenge.
   10680. chris p Posted: November 28, 2012 at 10:49 PM (#4312013)
It's not the reelection, it's the potential primary... Stuff like this might keep people like the moron governor from considering a challenge.

the moron governor is pretty much toast, right?
   10681. zonk Posted: November 28, 2012 at 10:56 PM (#4312019)
It's not the reelection, it's the potential primary... Stuff like this might keep people like the moron governor from considering a challenge.

the moron governor is pretty much toast, right?


Who knows... it's so easy to get on Maine GE ballots that they're forever getting situations where a plurality candidate can win statewide with ease.
   10682. Ron J2 Posted: November 29, 2012 at 10:40 AM (#4312217)
10661 (and others) I'd have to see the context, but that sounds vaguely like an attempt at humor that didn't come off.
   10683. GregD Posted: November 29, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4312228)
I am not a Mainer but it seems right to me that she is worried more about a primary than a general election. Primaries can be weird and rely on motivation. It's easy to imagine a Teaper suddenly giving her a run. The Dems knocking her off in an off year election? Much harder to imagine. Besides she can pivot back to the center after she's taken care of the base.

Terry McAuliffe seems spectacularly ill-suited as a gubernatorial candidate, no? I'm sure he'll raise a lot of money again but his likability quotient is zero and people seem to tolerate slick suits more in DC than back at home. But I don't know what the Dems farm team looks like in Va.

   10684. zonk Posted: November 29, 2012 at 11:11 AM (#4312243)
I am not a Mainer but it seems right to me that she is worried more about a primary than a general election. Primaries can be weird and rely on motivation. It's easy to imagine a Teaper suddenly giving her a run. The Dems knocking her off in an off year election? Much harder to imagine. Besides she can pivot back to the center after she's taken care of the base.

Terry McAuliffe seems spectacularly ill-suited as a gubernatorial candidate, no? I'm sure he'll raise a lot of money again but his likability quotient is zero and people seem to tolerate slick suits more in DC than back at home. But I don't know what the Dems farm team looks like in Va.


Yeah - I'm not sure I see a Dem knocking off Collins straight-up... The Maine Dems have fielded decent candidates against Collins her last two cycles and come up well short... Chellie Pingree, who's very well known in Maine, from a powerful Maine family, and generally well-liked (and current the ME-1 congresswoman) lost to her by about 15 in 2002, while Tom Allen (former Portland mayor and also former ME-1 congressman) lost by about 25 in 2008. Pingree and Allen are/were probably the two best possible candidates the Maine Dems could field and each could probably win an open seat election, but it's pretty clear that the only way Collins leaves the Senate is retirement or primary.

The McAuliffe gubernatorial bid is an interesting one -- Cucinnelli's wingnuttery aside, it's interesting that BOTH Terry and Cooch are not native Virginians... I think it's actually a real test of just how powerful that northern Virginia/DC suburban/exurban area has become. Remember that McAuliffe lost the 2006 Dem primary to Jim Webb for VA-SEN, despite significantly outspending Webb. As someone noted upthread, I'd love to see Perriello get in the race, but I'm not sure he'd fare much better in the GE.
   10685. DA Baracus Posted: November 29, 2012 at 11:17 AM (#4312251)
Sure you do. You just call it something else.


I will call it Mosque.
   10686. Langer Monk Posted: November 29, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4312277)
I'd love to see Tom Periello run


Yes, please. It will also be interesting to see what Bolling decides to do next.
   10687. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 29, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4312283)
I will call it Mosque


I personally go to Temple.

The University. All the time. In my head.

GO OWLS!
   10688. spike Posted: November 29, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4312294)
Your daily dose of Orwellian reality - I give you Conservative Fact Check

//OMG -

"Our staff:

Chuck Rogers, Editor-In-Chief
Mr. Rogers presently writes all the content for CFC.

"Techdude", Technical Editor
Accomplished computer expert "techdude" has an A.A.S. in Network Technology and Security from Inver Hills Community College. He specializes in detecting document and photo forgeries."
   10689. tshipman Posted: November 29, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4312309)
Just checking. Wouldn't want anyone to be cherry-picking a moderate's views...


Susan Collins is not a ####### moderate. Susan Collins voted for an amendment to defund birth control on a highway bill. She cosponored legislation to audit the Fed. She participated in hijacking the country's credit rating last summer.

Susan Collins is a Republican. She votes with party leadership at a very high rate. Her only high profile defections were on ARRA and confirming judges.
   10690. DA Baracus Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4312323)
I personally go to Temple.


That was safety school.
   10691. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:09 PM (#4312326)
Your daily dose of Orwellian reality - I give you Conservative Fact Check


Headlines like this don't encourage me with regard to their rigor in fact-checking:

American Hero: Sheryl Nuxoll
The Republican Senator from Idaho has an idea for saving is from another Obama term
   10692. spike Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4312335)
When you are spending your time detecting document and photo forgeries, proofreading is just an afterthought.

//now I can't even tell if this is a satire site anymore. If so, these guys are riding the edge beautifully.
   10693. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4312345)
I know I was waiting with bated breath to see who would save us from the tax traitors.
   10694. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4312349)
A few more headlines from "Conservative Fact Check":

Debunking the NOAA's October State of the Climate

Norquist Goes After The Tax Traitors

Dean Chambers Uncovers Voter Fraud

Seance Proves Rice Is On Al Qaeda Payroll

Maine GOP claims voter fraud

Wisconsin GOP: 200,000 fraudulent voters

Definitive Proof of Politifact's Bias
   10695. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4312353)
I know I was waiting with bated breath to see who would save us from the tax traitors.

That would be Bill James. Those government life thieves have finally met their match.
   10696. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4312354)
Boy this site has more gold than Alma Garrett's claim. I especially like this one:

First, an aside: trickle-down economics does work, regardless of what Business Week thinks or claims. We've seen it just in the last decade: thanks to the Bush Tax Cuts (and despite Obama's efforts to undo them), corporate profits are at an all-time high. Tax cuts for the rich work. What economists understand and which the Business Week author does not is that trickle-down takes time. It's a two-step process:

Take the profits earned from a tax cut
Invest these profits into higher wages and more jobs, thus helping the economy.
The Bush tax cuts were only enacted ten years ago. Trickle-down takes time, and the economy will begin to see the rewards soon


Sorry, I think I'll stick with the Conservapedia for all of my hard-hitting conservative thought.
   10697. spike Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:26 PM (#4312356)
OK I missed the seance one - that has to be a joke. Everything else though is a completely believable headline for WND/NewsMax etc. Big golf clap to the site creator.
   10698. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:26 PM (#4312357)
Who needs The Onion ...


On his show Wednesday night, Fox News host Bill O’Reilly accused American Atheists president David Silverman of being a “fascists” who wanted to banish Christmas from the United States.

During the contentious interview, O’Reilly insisted that Christmas displays in public buildings were not a constitutional issue because Christianity is not a religion.

“It is a fact that Christianity is not a religion, it is a philosophy,” the Fox News host declared confidently. “If the government was saying that the Methodist religion deserves a special place in the public square, I would be on your side.”

Silverman said he would be just as upset if a public figure promoted atheism.

“Jesus Christ,” O’Reilly said, then apologized. He added that Christmas trees had nothing to do with Christianity and were a secular symbol.
   10699. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4312359)
From the wonderfully entertaining site mentioned in #10688
The results are, sadly, not surprising. But the situation is grave. PolitiFact (and other supposedly unbiased fact-checking sites) paint Mitt Romney as a serial liar. They also unfairly tarnish Michele Bachmann as a liar, when anybody who follows her already understands that many of her statements aren't meant to be truthful in the first place -- she simply says what she feels.


That's gold.

This is a top-shelf satire site.
   10700. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 29, 2012 at 12:32 PM (#4312365)
They also unfairly tarnish Michele Bachmann as a liar, when anybody who follows her already understands that many of her statements aren't meant to be truthful in the first place -- she simply says what she feels.


That sentence alone should be sent in for a Pulitzer.
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