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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
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I was thinking about that... maybe I drop my chemist? I'm just not sure we're going to be able to rely on much in the way of electronics in the near-term -- we'll still have generators around and such, but I would think that eventually, we're going to go through a non-electric period and I would suspect that our descendants are going to need to relearn that one at some point in the future.
I'm not sure what you think I'm advocating. I specifically said that if we were getting sent back to the stone age we don't need lawyers and bankers and that lawyers and bankers have value in, what I'll label, post dark-ages eras.
Then just let them drive right off the fiscal cliff. That'll get you some serious spending cuts.
Oh, you don't want to do that?
EDIT: And I love this:
Fifth columnists are everywhere.
Does he ever? I don't think I've ever seen him smile. I still can't believe he's my Congressman (and ran unopposed this year!).
Sure there are Halloween songs. "The Ghost of Tom," "The Worms Crawl In, the Worms Crawl Out" . . . there aren't too many, and they're not any good, but they do exist. And the kids like them, so they can be useful. It's hard to overestimate the difficulty of getting kids to cooperate.
"Jingle Bells"
"Winter Wonderland"
"Let it Snow"
"The Most Wonderful Time of the Year"
Etc.
Yeah, there's totally no way to make that work.
It is just me, or does Boehner not really seem to enjoy the job of Speaker? I get that trying to get the Teapers to go along with anything must be a major headache, but isn't meeting that challenge what Speakers are supposed to do?
Your so right and I've actually read the book. So ashamed. This must be how Dick Morris or JoeK should feel.
The ones in 28 Days Later weren't zombies, either. They're people infected with a disease.
The Curse of Millhaven
"The racial aspect"? So all those right-wingers who confirmed black guy Colin Powell as secretary of state and then black woman Condoleezza Rice as secretary of state are now at risk of being seen as racists if they oppose Susan Rice for secretary of state?
Quite a racket you guys have crafted for yourselves.
I think I made myself pretty clear...
I'm advocating drafting a team of people to keep me safe, feed me, build things for me, heal me when I'm sick, and allow me to reproduce with Kate Upton in relative safety and harmony.
I get that a chunk of the Tea Party group wants to dump him. What I can't get clear is how big that group truly is.
If Boehner gets a deal that includes some tax increases, can he deliver 30 Republicans? 100? 150? Maybe's it not knowable, but somewhere between delivering 100 and 150 Republicans he can just tell Cantor to go #### himself, no? If he's stuck between 30-100, then he's obviously stuck being their stooge.
Well of course it CAN work. The point is, why should it be so difficult? Is anyone really offended by "The 12 days of Christmas" or "The Christmas Song" ("Chestnuts roasting on an open fire...")?
Sandy blasts $80B hole through debt talks
First it was $30 billion, then $40 billion, and now it's $80 billion. New York and New Jersey want every man, woman, and child in the U.S. to kick in $260 because a storm hit, while New York and New Jersey pay $0. Crazy.
"The racial aspect"? So all those right-wingers who confirmed black guy Colin Powell as secretary of state and then black woman Condoleezza Rice as secretary of state are now at risk of being seen as racists if they oppose Susan Rice for secretary of state?
Personally I don't see it as racial. More as a typical case of wingnuts being wingnuts, and a party determined to drive itself right off the cliff because it's talked itself into doing it. But the sight of a united Senate party made up of aging white men voting unanimously against a black woman on dubious grounds isn't going to look too good. You may not like to hear that, but then there are a lot of things you don't like to hear.
And it's rather ironic that the party that greatly benefited from the Swift Boating of John Kerry in 2004 is now trying to position him as a Secretary of State. I think Kerry would make a fine Secretary of State, but color me totally cynical about the Republicans' motivations in promoting him.
Don't forget this contemporary classic, homeboy.
It's called negotiation. Your asking price is never your bottom line. IF they get $80 billion, and IF that covers 100% of their damage, THEN your comment above is valid. Until then, it's all a lot of hot air.
Yeah, the dire warnings about not confirming Susan Rice are nonsense; liberal echo chamber stuff. The timing and history are such that it won't cost the GOP a damn thing. Of course, if they really believe she's an inept dolt, the smarter move would be to confirm her after making a show of grumbling and then use her gaffes to attack and weaken the Obama admin. It's not like it really matters. Foreign policy is the Jack Russell terrier of the USA; noisy, destructive, and more trouble than it's worth. That never seems to change no matter who's at State.
I haven't read the book (will now, though), but average walkers is the way to go. In certain situations fast zombies work. 28... takes smart advantage of its infecteds' frenzy, and the DotD remake's fast zombies meant fighting them individually was a lost cause, so it kept the focus on the humans trapped in the mall, but in general it's easier to make a solid film using 'slow' walkers. The Walking Dead tv series gets this right. Its dead can stagger at a pretty good clip for a while, putting real stress on the characters. Strategy is more important and more interesting with the slow ones, else it pretty much boils down to 'Run! Hide!'
zonk: an electrician is going to be much more valuable in the short run than a chemist. In any case, you'll have a tough time getting the chemist's lab going without electricity. Also, I don't know why you'd ever have an electricity free period. You'd at least want someone who could run solar panels for you after the gas goes bad, and to develop the next generation of solar electricity.
edit: youtube has commercials now, in advance of a four minute video? #### you, youtube.
I have a young cousin who wants to become a hiphop artist. He's a pretty good writer, but he's never even heard of Public Enemy. How is this possible?
Grandma Got Runover By A Raindeer?
One thing I wonder regarding the early Romero zombie flics and Walking Dead...
Why doesn't everyone flee north?
Sure - the weather is going to miserable without the creature comforts, but given the rotting nature of the walkers and such - these extreme cold/thawing events would seem to clear out the zombie herds pretty significantly, wouldn't they? How would a walker be able to "survive" in below freezing snowdrifts?
Obviously, there are other challenges living in say... Minnesota without modern creature comforts during a northern north american winter - but it would seem to me that you just need to survive (keep warm & eat) a single seasonal cycle and then you'd only have to deal with the freshly dead.
*snort* I hope someone got fired over that...
if a deal happens with tax increases it either has to be all the republicans with some hard cores on the sidelines or the speaker and 40 loyalists who are in safe locations but know they are doing him one last favor and that tehy will be deemed 'suspect' by new leadership, etc
cantor isn't helping him
Hmmm... I'm torn - I really hate to lose my chemist, but I'm not losing Kate Upton either.
The party of Sarah Palin and Condi Rice are going to have an awfully hard time making the case that Rice is not qualified, or should be disqualified for the information she passed on regarding the situation in another country
Walking home from our house [REDACTED] Eve?
Maybe you should start taking some night classes. Or does Kate love you enough to do it for you?
That's actually a plot point in the World War Z book. The short answer is that there aren't enough resources up there to sustain that kind of population shift.
And at the risk of being written off as an ancient relic, all I can say is that I was raised on the Sunday newspapers and never attended a church service from the age of 6 on up. And yet I was easily able to find beauty and meaning in the Christmas and Hanukkah songs we sang all through elementary school, and listened to in assembly after that when presented by the glee clubs. "Jingle Bells" and all that is fine, but they can't possibly compare to the sacred carols for beauty, and for the life of me I can't see why---in our great age of cultural diversity---we shouldn't want children to be exposed to traditions that they didn't grow up in. Present Christmas carols, Hanukkah songs, Kwanzaa songs, and religious songs from any other seasonal holidays. As a confirmed agnostic, why on Earth should I have a problem with any of that? How is the world going to end because school children get exposed to religious traditions? Those songs I learned in 5th and 6th grade never "converted" me, but they certainly started me on a lifelong appreciation of some of the finest music ever composed. Some people can sure pick the strangest fights.
EDIT: Zombrex to Vlad. Keep living your life, with Zombrex! By Phenotrans.
Well, I guess Kate's gonna actually have to learn to love me, so I suppose she can learn chemistry, too...
What's your population size? If you've only got ten people no point in having a chemist -- you are going to spend all your time hunting and scavenging and moving about. Not to mention that that is an insufficient breeding population. If you've got 1000 people then draft picks #1-10 are farmers. So it gets complicated.
But one occupation in general to add to your list is veterinarian.
There have been studies and models done of the ideal crew size for extraplanetary exploration (assuming cost isn't an object). There were a number of studies that suggested that 30 people is the minimum number of skilled individuals you would need so that you have a skilled person for any given task that you are likely to need to perform. Might be a good place to start.
I'm with you brother. I'd expose myself to Sarah Palin's Wasilla fealty pledge if the cold could hypothetically keep the Bieber horde at bay from me and my family.
Does he ever? I can't wait for Boehner's autobiography one day. He is going to absolutely slaughter Cantor in it, possibly even more than he takes a hatchet to Obama.
I didn't expect my first disagreement ever (or at least the first I can recall) with The Good Face to be over dogs.
I agree with you re: foreign policy, but not re: Jack Russell terriers.
Agreed completely, except that I bailed on church at the age of 8.
It's no less likely than Denise Richards as a nuclear physicist, right?
I'd be fine without one, but I think a Chef/Cook has to be on that list but obviously lower. We are a spoiled soceity, and if people are just eating crappy beans all day, some may give up without some decent sides created from the rations.
Precisely what I was thinking...
It should only be the gays that have to pay the money. There's a long scientific history of responsibility. Why punish the innocent?
Speaking of the gay, here's one other bone to chew on: New York and New Jersey have been near the bottom of the 50-state list for federal monies received vs. federal taxes paid for decades, with New Jersey regularly ranking 50th. Between 1990 and 2009 the two states paid in $1.6 trillion dollars more than they got back. Tell us more about this unconscionable $260 burden.
folks gripe that we do not have a representative democracy but in some respects it is 'very' representative. congressfolks vote 'exactly' how their constituents want them to vote even if the choice is really dumb. very few pols in the congress or senate are willing to tell their voters that they had to vote 'x' because it was the right thing to do
Wrt TWD, idk. Afaict the only reason not to go north is then you have a cable show with eight viewers watching a dozen characters hanging out in St. Paul, or Winnipeg, or someplace.
Speak English, Mick!
You need a "leader" personality for sure, but that's a personality type that can come from any field.
Hell, maybe Kate Upton should be the #1 pick. Remember that Seinfeld where his beautiful girlfriend cruises through life, unaware that she always gets her way whenever she asks anyone for anything?
So you're in favor of "progressive" taxation, except when you're not. Got it.
And then Kirk Lombard - does Northern California food-foraging tours. Everybody gotta eat, even if it's all dandelions and monkey-faced eels.
And then Amazing GF, because I'm not doing this without Amazing GF if I can help it.
After that, I'm not sure.
In my experience, the most militant atheists and anti-religious types in general come from the ranks of "fallen away" believers who react so strongly against the BS and the hypocrisy of organized religion that they feel compelled to fight it at every turn, no matter how benign the specific subject at hand. The most anti-Catholic person I've ever known was an ex-GF of mine who was raised in one of those Bless the Father Son Holy Ghost type families, and the second she had a chance to escape she saw the Church as a lifelong enemy. I always felt kind of funny as an agnostic, trying to convince her not to throw out the proverbial baby with the Holy Water.
I don't want just any soldier, though -- I want someone with leadership, training, and at least some level of tactical experience...
Look - I'm no hunter (though, hard is might be for folks to believe, this bleeding heart actually did bag a deer in his youth... and was then pretty upset about it :-) - but in the near term, I do think I'll be able to bag one of the many domestic animals that will be around... I do think I'm gonna want a farmer high up.
That said - I think you might be right about Kate Upton... Nothing against any of the skilled positions - but assuming this draft is against the population as a whole, I'm pretty sure I'll still very, very skilled options for the rest in rounds 2 through 10.
So - I'll make Kate Upton my #1 pick.
Oh no, accused of inconsistency by the man who variously cites and dismisses data points like he's walking along an open buffet.
$80 billion, should New York and New Jersey get it, would be approximately the federal "overage" that the two states pay out every year. Another way of framing your argument is that the so-called "taker" states in this metric wouldn't be getting their $260 bonus check for 2013.
I want R. Lee Ermey. Just because.
Uh huh.
If you believe in "progressive" taxation, there's little or no "overage." New York and New Jersey are very wealthy states.
Of course, only one of these equations can win, because it's literally impossible for opposing values to coexist or compromise. And there's no wiggle room anywhere in either of the opposing equations for singular crises, national goodwill, or other absurdities.
Uh huh.
Brevity is... wit.
You forgot the second "t".
No, because progressive taxation is currently the law of the land. People and states don't get to opt out of their responsibilities, so expecting them to opt out of rights is a weird kind of "gotcha."
And high earning individuals who take a huge loss one year don't have to pay a lot of taxes that year, so your gotcha is equally weird.
People who don't have an income don't pay income taxes. What's your point?
If you are going to analogize states to individuals, then it follows logically that if high earning individuals can offset income with losses (which they can), then states can do the same thing. For example, in 2005 I was able to offset some income with un-reimbursed losses from Hurricane Wilma.
What if we get over-run by zombie bankers?
Oh, so your "gotcha" was missing the "gotcha" part. Now I get it.
Anyone impacted by Sandy should be able to take a deduction, and I never claimed otherwise. But the ability to take deductions isn't what's happening (or being discussed) here, and you know that.
Of course it is, and you were the one to bring it up.
The wealthiest state (per capita), is North Dakota, which receives far more from the federal government (per capita) than NY or NJ.
Thriller
That only applies in a functioning society with laws and social norms. If the warlords take over the beautiful women all end up getting used as currency.
Only in Misirlou's mind is an $80 billion handout the same thing as a person with $0 income paying $0 in taxes, or a person deducting a loss from their pre-tax income.
"Progressive" taxation now includes people in Iowa and Michigan (and Utica, N.Y.) paying to rebuild oceanfront property in New York City. Who knew?
The current chairman of the Senate Budget Committee is a Democrat from North Dakota. I wonder if there's a connection?
Is there no end to the awesomeness that is Joe Biden?
And regarding this: "And in many U.S. jurisdictions, you will not hear Christmas songs at public school winter concerts. That's not just songs that mention Jesus, it's songs that mention the word Christmas, or Santa, or elves, or anything." I really am interested in where this is happening, specifically.
By the way, North Dakota is 20th in household income and 50th in per capita GDP (per Census and IRS). Where did you see N.D. listed as the wealthiest state (per capita) in the U.S.?
The current chairman of the Senate Budget Committee is a Democrat from North Dakota. I wonder if there's a connection?
In per capita tax gain from 1985-1989, North Dakota ranked 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd. Kent Conrad became a freshman Senator in 1987. In 2010, North Dakota ranked 10th. If I had gut feelings like yours, I'd get my stomach stapled.
(I've been listening to the audiobook with my GF and sometimes it's been a little tiresome, but I think that's because it's the first audiobook I"ve ever listened to rather than the subject.)
It is also worth noting that it was not written in English, so it may not really say what even you think it says.
From my point of view, the OT was written by the Jews, for the Jews, and every time one of the uncircumcised reads it, they are bound to screw it up. Just stick with your Gospels, goyim, and leave our fairy tales to us.
The current chairman of the Senate Budget Committee is a Democrat from North Dakota. I wonder if there's a connection?
Oh. My. God. I can only shudder at what the rest of the stuff I can't see looks like.
This must be another one of those gotcha's that's missing the "gotcha" part. It appears (1) you don't believe the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee is looking out for his own state, and/or (2) you didn't see me call Misirlou's entire premise into question (#10872).
Sounds like withdrawal symptoms. Maybe you should have a drink.
Christmas.
Christ Mass.
Christmas is a celebration of the birth of your Lord and Savoir Jesus Christ. Why should we be upset if schools are engaged in Christian indoctrination. What could be wrong with that.
Of course, you could have a Christmas concert without any reference whatsoever to Christ. No Silent Night. No Adeste Fideles. No God Rest Ye Merry Gentlemen. Etc. In which case, why bother calling it a Christmas concert, why not call it a Santa Claus concert? Or a Holiday Concert. Because at that point, calling it a Christmas concert, but ignoring "the reason for the season", is frankly offensive to true Christians.
Then again, if you really want to be traditional, you SHOULD call it a Winter concert. After all, nobody has the faintest idea with Yshua ben-Joseph was actually born; the early Christians co-opted the pagan winter solstice festivals (as religions have been and continue to co-opt other religions). So calling it a Winter Concert is actually a return to tradition.
The fact is, because there were enough of us that we did not feel put upon (the schools may have been open for Jewish Holidays, but no work was ever done on them because of how empty the classes were), we did not feel the need to make an issue of anything.
Times have changed, I know, and kids and cats are all over my lawn.
EDIT: My "I dunno" was not WRT Srul's 10880, which seems to reflect my own experience, but about the topic in general
The fine print hurts your and Gonfalon's point, which I guess neither of you noticed.
Well if so, then that's stupid. If not (It is OK to get aid) then are you really just ######## about the cost? Why not let it play out and see what the cost is?
I am because they are lousy songs (unless it is Nat King Cole singing Chestnuts roasting on an open fire"). If you are going to sing Christmas Carols, sing Christmas Carols, and stop apologizing. Am I supposed to stop marveling at great Cathedrals, the Sistine Chapel, great music, great art, because it's inspired by religion. I would much rather hear a choir singing Adeste Fidelis, O Holy Night, Angels we Have Heard on High, etc., etc. They are better musically and they have a spirit that secular Christmas songs simply do not. If someone wants to throw Maoz Tsur into the mix, as a Jewish equivalent, I would not mind. But the Dreidel song? Gag me with a latke, please.
As the owner if a Jack Russell mix, let me be the first to wish you an Unhappy Christmas and a Miserable New Year.
The latter (written by the marvelous Mel Torme, and you're correct that Nat King's version of it is the best) is a wonderful song in every way. "The 12 Days of Christmas" is utter horridness.
One of her best friends from college teaches in Rochester, New York, and has the same situation (same grade levels, also), and on Facebook, we see comments to that effect from their other classmates, most of whom are in New York (various parts of the state). My girlfriend also taught in the Burlington, Vermont area for several years, grades 6 through 8, and in that situation there was not an official school policy against Christmas-mentioning music (religious content was officially discouraged, but not secular Santa/elves/etc.), so she did program it even though a few parents would complain. The kids of parents who complained didn't have to participate, of course.
What's interesting is that the complainers were without exception thoroughly Western atheists. The same type of parent also complained when she programed patriotic songs. We haven't been involved with the public schools in Maryland for long enough to know who did the complaining that led to the policies that are in place here. Certainly the area is more diverse in terms of cultural background than Vermont is. The interdict on Halloween, we've been told, stems from the large complement of Jehovah's Witnesses in this particular school, and isn't necessarily a broad policy.
For the record, I'll reiterate that both of us, as well as every other music teacher whose views on the matter I know, advocate cultural inclusion--the representation of all cultures present, and maybe even some besides. Neither of us is religious (my girlfriend is less religious than I am--I've claimed here to believe in a God, though it's more that I'm not really willing to admit to myself that I don't; she's quite definite on the matter), and the last thing we want to do is pressure kids to believe in a particular religion. But as others have expressed, partaking of art that was inspired by a religion is precisely that and no more. And partaking of art that was inspired by department stores and candy companies is even less than that.
Aren't they all?
The Zombies in 28 Days Later were mindless eating machines. The creatures in I Am Legend could think and were forming a society.
Yes, I have this crazy idea that people in Michigan and Tennessee shouldn't have to subsidize wealthier people's desire to rebuild oceanfront homes and buildings.
BBTF is a funny place. If some city votes to subsidize a new ballpark by $2 million, all hell breaks loose. But giving $80,000,000,000 so wealthy cities, businesses, and individuals can rebuild homes and businesses in high-risk areas? No problem.
"Let it play out and see what the cost is" — a succinct, if unfortunate, summary of the modern liberal's position on government spending.
<sigh>
Walkers don't survive. THEY ARE DEAD! The reason the infected from 28 Days/Weeks are not actually zombies is that they ARE NOT DEAD. When the heroes of the first movie survive by *waiting for the infected to starve to death* you can be pretty sure that the infected were not, in fact, the walking *dead.*
People should pretty much head anywhere that isn't currently heavily populated and experiencing mild weather. Head North. Head South. Head to the mountains. Head to the swamps. Head to the forests. Head to the water. Go anywhere just don't hang out in a major metropolis. A body that isn't reproducing cells, repairing damages, hydrating, and fighting off pests falls apart very very quickly.
Hmm ...
It appears we have a liberal who's shocked, just shocked, at the results of modern liberal governance.
You mean to say that all those lawyers and bankers in New York City actually deserve the money they receive in compensation? Hey man, that's not their money. That's blood money they've earned off the real labor of Walmart employees. They didn't make that money!
Hey, look, another liberal who's come out against "progressive" taxation. Maybe these threads aren't a waste of time after all.
Joe, things like this do make me almost start feeling like a Republican every once in a while, but only until the Republicans start ranting about "legitimate rape" and proposing to ban same-sex marriage again, and I remember that the constraints they want to place on our actions are much worse than the alternative. But to take this example specifically, it's not a law that we can't sing Christmas songs, it's a policy, which isn't the same thing--it wasn't put in place by legislation, it was presumably a reaction to years of occasional but aggressive complaining. So it may have something to do with "liberals," but it has nothing to do with "modern liberal governance."
Sure.
Absolutely
Hold on, let me load this rifle.
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