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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   201. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 01, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4290209)
Something I found on the internets - who knows if its true. But if so, kinda cool:


'In the sticks' is just a reference to an area where there are lots of twigs, i.e. the countryside. It was first an American expression but is now used throughout the English-speaking world. The earliest citation of it that I have found is from the US newspaper the Florence Times Daily, November 1897:

... he gathered from 1 1/2 acres this year 21 barrels of corn. If any man "away in the sticks" can beat this, in the language of "Philander Doesticks," we exclaim, "let him stand forward to de rear."

For a time, the phrase became specifically associated with baseball. 'The sticks' were exhibition games, played in county locations, which baseball players organised to supplement their income outside the main season. It was not allowed by the rules of the US Baseball Commission, but the rules weren't often strictly applied.
   202. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 01, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4290212)
I don't think Sandy will "decide" the election by any stretch - but movement over the past week has been towards Obama, both at the state and national level (except for the always reliable Scotty R!), so I do think it helps, not hurts, Obama . . .

I have serious doubts that this sort of routine, non-political action affects voters, but if it did, any positive has probably been wiped out by Leno's now oft-repeated line that "Hurricane Sandy has already created more jobs than Obama". Ouch, that one left a mark.
   203. spike Posted: November 01, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4290215)
As president, I will ensure FEMA has the funding it needs to fulfill its mission - Mitt Romney, 1 Nov 2012

Not unexpected of course, and weasel worded enough to where it can mean anything, but Mitt is certainly living up to his public stereotype.
   204. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 01, 2012 at 02:58 PM (#4290217)
Can I go on record as saying I think "sandy" is a terrible name for a hurricane.
   205. spike Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:00 PM (#4290218)
now oft-repeated

First I've heard of it. I probably don't listen to the folks who are "oft-repeating" it though. And Christie's lines have gotten quite a bit more repetition.
   206. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4290220)
My mother's name is Sandy, so my family has been having some fun with this, at least.
   207. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4290222)
I have serious doubts that this sort of routine, non-political action affects voters, but if it did, any positive has probably been wiped out by Leno's now oft-repeated line that "Hurricane Sandy has already created more jobs than Obama". Ouch, that one left a mark.

Jay Leno has been a one-man wrecking crew in recent weeks. He's been just as tough re: Benghazi.
   208. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4290223)
There's the potential for a giant ###########. Though I have a real tough time believing a Paulite would actually take an action that would result in Obama getting the presidency via a plurality.


Couldn't happen that way. If no one gets an Electoral College majority the House of Representatives makes the decision, as noted earlier in the thread. However, the top three candidates are included in the vote (which would put Paul into the discussion in the HoR) and it's theoretically possible that if enough of the Tea Party Republicans decided to vote for Paul instead of Romney that some of the closely-divided states could swing out of Romney's column.

-- MWE
   209. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4290224)
My mother's name is Sandy, so my family has been having some fun with this, at least.


When I hear "Sandy", I immediately think Olivia Newton-John in Grease. And I somehow can't relate her to a superstorm.

-- MWE
   210. Tilden Katz Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4290225)
Bloomberg endorses Obama.
   211. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4290230)
Jay Leno has been a one-man wrecking crew in recent weeks.


He's still relevant?
I thought the whole "leave the Tonight Show, fail at 10pm, beg for job back, screw Conan over" thing left him emasculated by popular culture standards.

From wikipedia:

"On July 1, 2010, Variety reported that only six months into its second life, Jay Leno's Tonight Show posted its lowest ratings since 1992.[22] By September 2010, Leno's ratings had fallen below those of Conan O'Brien when he had hosted The Tonight Show."
   212. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:08 PM (#4290231)
When I hear "Sandy", I immediately think Olivia Newton-John in Grease.


Same here.

Or one of the Alomars...
   213. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4290232)
Bloomberg endorses Obama.

... on the basis of climate change, five days from an election. That's "leadership," Nanny Bloomberg-style.

***
He's still relevant?
I thought the whole "leave the Tonight Show, fail at 10pm, beg for job back, screw Conan over" thing left him emasculated by popular culture standards.

I'm guessing a lot more Americans know who Jay Leno is than Chris Christie, but I could be wrong about that.
   214. spike Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4290233)
Jay Leno has been a one-man wrecking crew in recent weeks.

Given Obama's steady rise in both the RCP average and 538 model since October 14, the question is for whom?
   215. Tilden Katz Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:12 PM (#4290234)
on the basis of climate change


And also marriage equality and reproductive choice. Remind me, which candidate is the nanny on those issues?
   216. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4290235)
I feel badly for people who got hurt by the real estate implosion, but this article is a prime example of liberal media bias. The family in that article presumably stopped paying their mortgage — on a home that was worth less than the mortgage balance — for six months or a year, which culminated in the home being foreclosed. Thereupon, they filed a lawsuit which allowed them to remain in the home for another 30 months without paying anything, for a total of 36 to 42 months of mortgage- and rent-free living. But now, the San Francisco Chronicle apparently wants us to be outraged because the family received only $13,000 after suing over some procedural error.


You feel sorry for them, but you have no sympathy for someone following the rules in place for them to get relief? That sounds as phony as your "I support teachers...let's fire them all and offer them their jobs back at a 50% pay cut."

The procedure for someone in an untenable mortgage situation (ie, someone you supposedly feel sorry for), is that they stop paying their mortgage. Otherwise, they are not deemed to be "in need", and thus not eligible for relief. Yes, that entails a risk of foreclosure, but when a bank says, "OK, we are going to restructure your debt." and while in that process, initiates foreclosure proceedings, that's some pretty bad faith. In that situation, it is OK to feel sorry for the deadbeats.
   217. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4290236)
Given Obama's steady rise in both the RCP average and 538 model since October 14, the question is for whom?

Obama has gained 0.0 points at RCP since Oct. 14.
   218. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:17 PM (#4290237)
... on the basis of climate change, five days from an election. That's "leadership," Nanny Bloomberg-style.


What's the problem here? There is a time limit on when you should endorse? You don't get to endorse someone based on an issue like Climate Change? And what does leadership have to do with endorsing - do only true leaders endorsements matter?
   219. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:19 PM (#4290238)
Well, the 15th through the 19th was rerun week and the Tonight Show got a .7 rating. I believe ratings for last week come out today but I believe new shows get about 2.7 rating.
   220. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4290240)
And also marriage equality and reproductive choice. Remind me, which candidate is the nanny on those issues?

Ah, yes. Bloomberg believes 13-year-olds should have access to the morning-after pill without parental notification or consent, but he doesn't believe a 40-year-old should be allowed to buy a large soda. World-class leadership.
   221. JL Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:22 PM (#4290241)
I'm guessing a lot more Americans know who Jay Leno is than Chris Christie, but I could be wrong about that.

Does not mean they watch him. The only folks I know that do are in the 60+ age bracket who watch the Tonight Show regardless of who hosts it. Not sure that is the group of undecided's that either side is trying to get.
   222. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:22 PM (#4290242)
Yes, that entails a risk of foreclosure, but when a bank says, "OK, we are going to restructure your debt." and while in that process, initiates foreclosure proceedings, that's some pretty bad faith. In that situation, it is OK to feel sorry for the deadbeats

It's a screwup not really bad faith and the jury did't think the fraud was intentional which it probably wasn't. The homeowners by not paying their mortgage and living in their house rent free for years probably saved around 100,000 dollars in mortgage payments. $13,000 plus those savings doesn't really make me feel sorry for them. If they couldn't afford the house they shouldn't have bought it.
   223. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:23 PM (#4290243)
And also marriage equality and reproductive choice. Remind me, which candidate is the nanny on those issues?


Jesus. Well, his proxies.
   224. zonk Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4290244)

There have been reports of three electors at least thinking of voting Paul instead of Romney. One of them has actually asked to be replaced -- couldn't vote for Romney.

There's the potential for a giant ###########. Though I have a real tough time believing a Paulite would actually take an action that would result in Obama getting the presidency via a plurality.


I could see certain flavors of Paulites that might be willing to do this - not all Paulites are created equal - some of them might be the survivalists/Randian types, but I know other Paulites that are wholly 'fortress America/get rid of the military/I hate foreign adventurism' types... In other words - they don't necessarily agree with his safety net/etc stances, but they so hate anything approaching neoconism that it overrides any and all other concerns.

What's more - those types are also the sort who -- frankly, say exactly what I've been saying... So long as people like Dan Senor are heading up Mitt's foreign policy team, he can pretend to be "just like Obama" all he wants at a debate - the truth is that his advisers would drive the show because those are the sort of people that will be influencing him.

Those types of Paulites aren't fans of Obama either (though, the ones I know will admit he's a wee bit better... they just say that both are so far from their ideal, the distinction doesn't matter). So, yeah -- I could see one of those types deciding to make a point, even if that point ended up leading to an Obama term 2.

The question is whether it's one of those particular types of Paulites that got an EC vote.
   225. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4290245)
Can I go on record as saying I think "sandy" is a terrible name for a hurricane.

My first GF was Sandy, but I'd now rather think of her by her real name, Cassandra.

---------------------------------

Obama has gained 0.0 points at RCP since Oct. 14.

Not according to the RCP Archives page for Oct. 14, which shows Romney with a 1.3 point lead at that point.
   226. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4290246)
Something like 1.2 million people between the ages of 18-49 watch Leno and it comprises about 40% of his audience.
   227. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4290247)
I'm guessing a lot more Americans know who Jay Leno is than Chris Christie, but I could be wrong about that.


I'm confused. Are we really arguing that anything Jay Leno says is swaying the election, and for Romney? Also, pretty sure he's a lifelong Democrat. I know he's married to one of those Hollywood liberal types.
   228. JL Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4290248)
... on the basis of climate change, five days from an election. That's "leadership," Nanny Bloomberg-style.

The Des Moines Register waited until October 27th to endorse Romney. I did not see any complaints about that type of leadership.
   229. zonk Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:27 PM (#4290249)
Heh...

Jay Leno...

Jay Leno is going to swing the election...

Heh-heh...

It's been a crappy day at work, so I just want to say thanks to the Clap and Joe for giving me a smile. Much obliged!
   230. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:27 PM (#4290250)
Jimmy Kimmel and Jay Leno. Kimmel is obviously a professional jerkass, but It's not clear to me that Leno is even a human being. He reacts like some sort of automaton.
   231. spike Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:28 PM (#4290251)
I'm guessing a lot more Americans know who Jay Leno is than Chris Christie, but I could be wrong about that.

I'm guessing a lot more Americans have seen Christie on TV in the last 72 hours than Leno, and probably credit him with knowing a bit more about Sandy and the government relief efforts than Jay.

Not to worry - Rush is making sure more folks know about the Governor - "He's fat and a fool. Don't listen to Governor Christie. He doesn't know what he's talking about…"
   232. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:28 PM (#4290252)
Not according to the RCP Archives page for Oct. 14, which shows Romney with a 1.3 point lead at that point.

Let me guess who the guy is who is bad at math.

The Des Moines Register waited until October 27th to endorse Romney. I did not see any complaints about that type of leadership.

I'm guessing the same person doing the complaining about Bloomberg is also the same person who is bad at reading numbers. Am I right?
   233. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4290254)
You feel sorry for them, but you have no sympathy for someone following the rules in place for them to get relief? That sounds as phony as your "I support teachers...let's fire them all and offer them their jobs back at a 50% pay cut."

The procedure for someone in an untenable mortgage situation (ie, someone you supposedly feel sorry for), is that they stop paying their mortgage. Otherwise, they are not deemed to be "in need", and thus not eligible for relief. Yes, that entails a risk of foreclosure, but when a bank says, "OK, we are going to restructure your debt." and while in that process, initiates foreclosure proceedings, that's some pretty bad faith. In that situation, it is OK to feel sorry for the deadbeats.

People have no right to a mortgage modification. In this particular case, the people lived mortgage- and rent-free for a minimum of 36 to 42 months *and* received a check for $13,000 afterward, despite owing more than the house was worth. How much more do you propose they should have received?
   234. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4290255)
Bloomberg believes 13-year-olds should have access to the morning-after pill without parental notification or consent, but he doesn't believe a 40-year-old should be allowed to buy a large soda.


So he's against both teen pregnancy AND obesity? Well, I never!
   235. JL Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4290256)
Something like 1.2 million people between the ages of 18-49 watch Leno and it comprises about 40% of his audience.

I am surprised it is the large a percentage of his audience. Thanks.
   236. Tilden Katz Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4290258)
If only Colin Powell and Mike Bloomberg had the leadership skills of Donald Trump.
   237. spycake Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:34 PM (#4290259)
I don't think Sandy will "decide" the election by any stretch - but movement over the past week has been towards Obama, both at the state and national level (except for the always reliable Scotty R!), so I do think it helps, not hurts, Obama . . .

I have serious doubts that this sort of routine, non-political action affects voters, but if it did, any positive has probably been wiped out by Leno's now oft-repeated line that "Hurricane Sandy has already created more jobs than Obama". Ouch, that one left a mark.

Apparently the liberal media is suppressing this "Leno" figure quite well -- I too have not heard this oft-repeated remark.

I think the hurricane doesn't directly help Obama or hurt Romney as much as it simply overshadows the race and prevents much movement. In a close race where the incumbent is probably the slight favorite, that's going to benefit the incumbent and hurt the challenger. (Of course, if your view is that it's a close race and the challenger is the slight favorite, it may hurt the incumbent, although I think incumbents may be generally benefitted by nonpolitical distractions.)
   238. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4290262)
Kimmel is obviously a professional jerkass, but It's not clear to me that Leno is even a human being. He reacts like some sort of automaton.


Leno was on Marc Maron's WTF podcast a couple of months ago and came across, well, as human. He had tons of cool stories about his early days. He used to open for Jazz greats and Blues guys. He paid his dues, I guess. Interesting life.
   239. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4290263)
Not according to the RCP Archives page for Oct. 14, which shows Romney with a 1.3 point lead at that point.

Let me guess who the guy is who is bad at math.


Dunno about that, but I sure know the guy who's not afraid to go to that RCP link for October 14 in order to back himself up.

Joe's curious adventures into math kind of reminds me of the days when we used to hear about "white man's arithmetic" from some of the more risible black nationalist types.
   240. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4290264)
Not according to the RCP Archives page for Oct. 14, which shows Romney with a 1.3 point lead at that point.

I looked at the wrong date. The graph has Obama gaining 1.0 point since Oct. 14. That's better than 0 points, but it's hardly a sign of major momentum, as Spike seemed to be claiming.

***
I'm confused. Are we really arguing that anything Jay Leno says is swaying the election, and for Romney? Also, pretty sure he's a lifelong Democrat. I know he's married to one of those Hollywood liberal types.

No one said anything about "swaying the election."
   241. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4290266)
No one said anything about "swaying the election."


So let's stop talking about Jay Leno. You've brought up enough bad comedy the last two days. I'm still trying to regain the ability to laugh after your link to that guy redistributing Halloween candy.
   242. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4290268)
People have no right to a mortgage modification. In this particular case, the people lived mortgage- and rent-free for a minimum of 36 to 42 months *and* received a check for $13,000 afterward. How much more do you propose they should have received?


Enough to cover their legal bills? Look, the big culprit here is the stupid requirement that you must stop paying your mortgage in order to be eligible for relief. I was recently able to re-fi because the market turned around and I now had the 80% LTV necessary. I didn't get relief on the balance or interest rate, but was able to lock in the debt from a previous variable rate. I had been saying to the bank for years that "Look, I have no problem paying this now, and even if rates got up a little. But if they go up a lot, I won't be able to. You hold the debt here. I'm not asking you to take on more, just lock in what I have, otherwise, instead of payments, you'll be getting another house." The response was always "Nope, since you are making your payments, we're not going to discuss it." That's just crazy. They could have had a nice 5-6% loan right now ( if they had done this a couple of years ago), but instead, they got their money and I have a nice 3.5% loan with somebody else.

   243. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4290269)
Dunno about that, but I sure know the guy who's not afraid to go to that RCP link for October 14 in order to back himself up.

RCP isn't a one-day average, so it's unclear why you keep referring to the Oct. 14 archives page as if it would tell us much of anything.

The graph of the RCP average plainly shows Romney at 47.4 and Obama at 46.4 on Oct. 14 and both of them at 47.4 today, for a net +1.0 gain for Obama since that date.
   244. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4290272)
Enough to cover their legal bills?

They lived mortgage- and rent-free for 36 to 42 months, if not longer, in a house in San Francisco or San Mateo. That had to be worth a minimum of $100,000, which I'm quite sure covered their legal bills.

Look, the big culprit here is the stupid requirement that you must stop paying your mortgage in order to be eligible for relief. I was recently able to re-fi because the market turned around and I now had the 80% LTV necessary. I didn't get relief on the balance or interest rate, but was able to lock in the debt from a previous variable rate. I had been saying to the bank for years that "Look, I have no problem paying this now, and even if rates got up a little. But if they go up a lot, I won't be able to. You hold the debt here. I'm not asking you to take on more, just lock in what I have, otherwise, instead of payments, you'll be getting another house." The response was always "Nope, since you are making your payments, we're not going to discuss it." That's just crazy. They could have had a nice 5-6% loan right now ( if they had done this a couple of years ago), but instead, they got their money and I have a nice 3.5% loan with somebody else.

How is any of this the bank's problem? Like the people in the San Francisco Chronicle article, you signed a contract. The bank was free not to modify the loan, and you were free to refi elsewhere.
   245. zonk Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4290274)

I looked at the wrong date. The graph has Obama gaining 1.0 point since Oct. 14. That's better than 0 points, but it's hardly a sign of major momentum, as Spike seemed to be claiming.


Apparently, you looked at the wrong spike, too -- because "steady rise" doesn't mean "major momentum" by any semantic understanding I'm aware of...
   246. JL Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4290275)
So I just read that former Republican Senator Chuck Hagel has endorsed Bob Kerrey in Nebraska. A little surprised by that. Can't hurt Kerrey, but I am not sure how Hagel is viewed by voters or Republicans.
   247. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4290276)
It's a screwup not really bad faith and the jury did't think the fraud was intentional which it probably wasn't. The homeowners by not paying their mortgage and living in their house rent free for years probably saved around 100,000 dollars in mortgage payments. $13,000 plus those savings doesn't really make me feel sorry for them. If they couldn't afford the house they shouldn't have bought it.



Are you kidding me? If that is the case, then there are a long list of lenders such as BofA, Wells Fargo, Country Wide etc committing the same screw up. My mother went through the same situation with her house because of the death of my father and was told the same thing by the bank that as long as she kept up the payments she would not be eligible for a adjustment. So she goes ahead with not paying, gets sent countless paperwork by the bank to fill out and when she did , she was sent more that asked the same f'ing questions. When she or I called the company they would not have any update but would instead ask for paperwork that they already had been sent 3 or 4 times. Finally she was able to go through with a short sale and got lucky that the lender approved it. Then right after she moved out, those same a-holes sent her notices asking her if she was aware that she qualified for a loan modification through HARP. So yes there are cases of people buying houses that they should not of purchased but there are also a lot of cases of people getting caught with bills they cant afford who have to use equity in their house and help up losing the house. But I guess the simple narrative makes for the easiest talking points. FYI my mom was only making Soc Sec benefits which is $1300 a month so I guess she should be happy with the $16,000 she saved by not paying the mortgage.
   248. zonk Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:59 PM (#4290277)
How is any of this the bank's problem? Like the people in the San Francisco Chronicle article, you signed a contract. They were free not to modify the loan, and you were free to refi elsewhere.


It's the bank's problem if they breached the contract -- even if by "technicality" -- to which they were also a party... though, technically -- I'd be willing to bet it's not the same bank that actually backed the original mortgage, but that still doesn't relieve them of the terms no matter how many bundlings downstream they were from the originator.
   249. zonk Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4290278)
Are you kidding me? If that is the case, then there are a long list of lenders such as BofA, Wells Fargo, Country Wide etc committing the same screw up. My mother went through the same situation with her house because of the death of my father and was told the same thing by the bank that as long as she kept up the payments she would not be eligible for a adjustment. So she goes ahead with not paying, gets sent countless paperwork by the bank to fill out and when she did , she was sent more that asked the same f'ing questions. When she or I called the company they would not have any update but wound instead ask for paperwork that they already had been sent 3 or 4 times. Finally she was able to go through with a short sale and got lucky that the lender approved it. Then right after she moved out, those same a-holes sent her notices asking her if she was aware that she qualified for a loan modification through HARP. So yes there are cases of people buying houses that they should not of purchased but there are also a lot of cases of people getting caught with bills they cant afford who have to use equity in their house and help up losing the house. But I guess the simple narrative makes for the easiest talking points. FYI my mom was only making Soc Sec benefits which is $1300 a month so I guess she should be happy with the $16,000 she saved by not paying the mortgage.


The shuffling of MBS' here seems to be the real problem to me --

A friend of mine - not in any foreclosure trouble or anything - was just complaining about this last weekend... His loan - a prime loan originally with Chase - has been bundled and sold 3 times just this year. He's rather pissed about just dealing with the paperwork that will be required for this year's taxes.

It boggles my mind how it has come to pass that so much 'commerce' in our system amounts to nothing more than paper shuffling and bets against various rates and such.
   250. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4290279)
Dunno about that, but I sure know the guy who's not afraid to go to that RCP link for October 14 in order to back himself up.

RCP isn't a one-day average, so it's unclear why you keep referring to the Oct. 14 archives page as if it would tell us much of anything.

The graph of the RCP average plainly shows Romney at 47.4 and Obama at 46.4 on Oct. 14 and both of them at 47.4 today, for a net +1.0 gain for Obama since that date.


Then where did you get that original "0.0 points" claim from?

But anyway, that RCP Archive page for October 14th says, "RCP Average: Romney +1.3" Today's RCP Average says (as of a minute ago) "Tie". But just in case you want to give it another look, here is is once again, all unskewed: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/10/14/

P.S. That same Archives page also shows both candidates in a "tie" at 47.4% each. I don't care what you want to call it, but if you're going to talk about numbers, at least get the numbers right.
   251. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4290280)
Apparently, you looked at the wrong spike, too -- because "steady rise" doesn't mean "major momentum" by any semantic understanding I'm aware of...

If we're really going to argue over 1 point at RCP, then you might want to actually visit RCP. Obama was at 46.4 on Oct. 14, then gained 0.9 on Oct. 15, then spent much of the next two weeks in steady decline, which was reversed only within the past couple days, when he gained a net +1.0 from Oct. 14 (or a whopping 0.1 from Oct. 15). This is your (and Spike's) idea of a "steady rise"?

***
Then where did you get that original "0.0 points" claim from?

I specifically said I looked at the wrong date.

P.S. That same Archives page also shows both candidates in a "tie" at 47.4% each. I don't care what you want to call it, but if you're going to talk about numbers, at least get the numbers right.

What are you talking about? I covered this in #243.
   252. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4290283)
It's the bank's problem if they breached the contract -- even if by "technicality" -- to which they were also a party... though, technically -- I'd be willing to bet it's not the same bank that actually backed the original mortgage, but that still doesn't relieve them of the terms no matter how many bundlings downstream they were from the originator.

Misirlou didn't mention any breach of contract by his bank.
   253. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4290284)

Are you kidding me? If that is the case, then there are a long list of lenders such as BofA, Wells Fargo, Country Wide etc committing the same screw up. My mother went through the same situation with her house because of the death of my father and was told the same thing by the bank that as long as she kept up the payments she would not be eligible for a adjustment. So she goes ahead with not paying, gets sent countless paperwork by the bank to fill out and when she did , she was sent more that asked the same f'ing questions. When she or I called the company they would not have any update but would instead ask for paperwork that they already had been sent 3 or 4 times. Finally she was able to go through with a short sale and got lucky that the lender approved it. Then right after she moved out, those same a-holes sent her notices asking her if she was aware that she qualified for a loan modification through HARP. So yes there are cases of people buying houses that they should not of purchased but there are also a lot of cases of people getting caught with bills they cant afford who have to use equity in their house and help up losing the house. But I guess the simple narrative makes for the easiest talking points. FYI my mom was only making Soc Sec benefits which is $1300 a month so I guess she should be happy with the $16,000 she saved by not paying the mortgage.


If you cannot afford your mortgage payments you should not buy the house that gets you those mortgage payments. Period.
   254. zonk Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:11 PM (#4290285)
Not that endorsements matter all that much, I think --

But I was somewhat surprised to see that the Economist has also endorsed Obama... it reads as a lot more of a pretty damn accurate and pitch perfect smackdown of Romney and the utter dishonesty of his campaign and plans than a hearty pro-Obama endorsement, but still.

   255. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4290286)
It boggles my mind how it has come to pass that so much 'commerce' in our system amounts to nothing more than paper shuffling and bets against various rates and such.

Unfortunately, if you took all the BS "jobs" out of our economy (corporate lawyers; "consultants"; purveyors of phony products; spin merchants; etc.), half the country would mostly be sitting around twiddling their thumbs all day with no money to pay for their thumb polish. The bottom line is our economy needs all the BS it can get to keep the machine humming.
   256. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4290287)

Yes, but if it were to knock down Arthur Bryant's instead, that WOULD be a federal disaster.


THIS! I agree with.

Honestly, I think Arthur Bryant's is a little like Derek Jeter: overrated, but still a genuine Hall of Famer. Slow's BBQ in Detroit is the best I've ever had, though I've never been to Pappy's in STL or Rendevous in Memphis.

But take all of this with a great big grain of salt. I grew up thinking Dallas BBQ was actual barbecue.
   257. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4290288)
At least for brisket it is.
   258. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4290291)
If you cannot afford your mortgage payments you should not buy the house that gets you those mortgage payments. Period.


Or have your spouse get sick and die either. That really puts a cramp in your mortgage payment.
   259. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4290292)
If we're really going to argue over 1 point at RCP, then you might want to actually visit RCP. Obama was at 46.4 on Oct. 14, then gained 0.9 on Oct. 15, then spent much of the next two weeks in steady decline, which was reversed only within the past couple days, when he gained a net +1.0 from Oct. 14 (or a whopping 0.1 from Oct. 15). This is your (and Spike's) idea of a "steady rise"?

I never once have said a word about any "steady rise". That was Spike, not me. All I've done is to point out that 1.3 - 0.0 = 1.3, and shown you that this is stated on two separate parts of that October 14th page.

P.S. That same Archives page also shows both candidates in a "tie" at 47.4% each. I don't care what you want to call it, but if you're going to talk about numbers, at least get the numbers right.

What are you talking about? I covered this in #243.


You mean this?

RCP isn't a one-day average, so it's unclear why you keep referring to the Oct. 14 archives page as if it would tell us much of anything.


Actually it tells us twice, in their own words, that the "RCP Average" showed Romney at +1.3 points. If you don't want to refer to that number, then you have to go to the various individual polls, which is NOT what you were citing when you first made your original claim.
   260. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4290293)
How is any of this the bank's problem? Like the people in the San Francisco Chronicle article, you signed a contract. They were free not to modify the loan, and you were free to refi elsewhere.


Not a problem per se, but bad business IMO. They already held the debt. They could have locked it in at 2 points higher than I was currently paying. But they stuck to "you don't have the LTV and you are current in your payments so you are not in distress. I replied that no, I'm not in distress, but I could be if rates go up, in which case we'll either be right back here, or you'll have another foreclosure. As I saw it, they had no upside to refusing.
   261. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4290294)
The thread was a lot better a hundred plus posts ago. (Though we are due for another BBQ thread.)
   262. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4290295)
Or have your spouse get sick and die either. That really puts a cramp in your mortgage payment.

Then you should plan better and even if you planned for all contingencies and you still can't make your payments that is too bad but oh well. Owning a house is not a birthright nor a right handed down by god.

People get old and things happen to old people that's why you see all those commercials on TV telling you to plan for your old age.
   263. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4290296)
Looks like The Yankee Clapper has been right about Virginia:

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report notes that the early vote in Virginia is not going the way the Obama campaign hoped: “Today’s new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off 2008 pace.” He elaborates that as of yesterday, 185,489 ballots had been cast in Obama localities, compared to 214,783 by this point in 2008, while 115,908 in McCain, compared to 117,224 in 2008.

He adds, “Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax –20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm…” and “In Romney strongholds, enthusiasm up. Hanover (33.1% Obama) turnout up 6.2%, Buchanan (coal country) up 14.5% vs. 2008.” ...


source
   264. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4290299)
If you cannot afford your mortgage payments you should not buy the house that gets you those mortgage payments. Period.



Or have your spouse get sick and die either. That really puts a cramp in your mortgage payment.


Or have your ex-wife die and find yourself with sole custody of your 2 kids and living in a one bedroom bachelor pad that is $100,000 under water and thus you cannot move (this happened to my brother-in-law.)
   265. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4290301)
Actually it tells us twice, in their own words, that the "RCP Average" showed Romney at +1.3 points. If you don't want to refer to that number, then you have to go to the various individual polls, which is NOT what you were citing when you first made your original claim.

Good grief. The chart of RCP's averages is here and it plainly shows Romney +1.0, not +1.3, on Oct. 14. If you have a problem with this, take it up with RCP.
   266. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4290302)
   267. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4290304)
Owning a home carries with it tremendous amounts of risk. Always have and always will. People for some reason tend to ignore the risks until it bites them in the ass and then they complain about the mean old baddies the banks.
   268. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4290307)
Mortgage aside.

As part of the divorce from the ex I have to get the ex's name off the mortage for obvious reasons (I get the house). I make more each year than what I need to refinance. I have great credit and a pile of cash in the bank. But since I am self employed (for less than two years) I can not get a refi. I have been trying for months and even have a friend (who makes more than I do and is a w-2 employee) who is more than willing to cosign. But no dice.

The whole thing is maddening, especially the multiple times people have said sure and then many forms and such later I am told nope. So I am converting to a w-2 employee just so I can get my mortgage refinanced and free up the ex to buy their own house. It is a first world problem I admit, but really frustrating that no one wants my perfectly good money.

So I have no sympathy for banks at all on this on a personal level.
   269. zonk Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4290308)
Such an hilarious supposed GOP SuperPAC effort to attract the AA vote that you really have to wonder if maybe it's not a liberal plant designed to make the GOP look like idiots... unless Joe has a superpac he's not telling us about.
   270. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4290309)
Owning a home carries with it tremendous amounts of risk. Always have and always will. People for some reason tend to ignore the risks until it bites them in the ass and then they complain about the mean old baddies the banks.
Then shouldn't you also be complaining about a society that incentivizes home ownership, via mortgage interest deductions?
   271. Guapo Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4290311)
It's almost like some sort of hurricane hit Virginia and made it impossible for people to vote.
   272. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4290313)
As I said way back when when all of this was coming to a head, there are many things/systems/people to complain about. Homeowners aren't victims though.
   273. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4290318)
It's almost like some sort of hurricane hit Virginia and made it impossible for people to vote.

So the hurricane, which apparently didn't hurt Virginia all that badly, is keeping Dems from voting but not Republicans?
   274. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4290319)
Yeah tell that to the banks. they seem to have no problem investing in things that carry a high level of risk, yet when it comes back to bite them in the ass the government has no problem using our tax dollars to bail them out. so the solution seems to be that we need to incorporate ourselves and maybe we will get a better level of service from the lenders.
   275. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4290320)
sitting around twiddling their thumbs all day with no money to pay for their thumb polish


Stupid Polish thumbs coming over here in their kielbasa boats and stealing all our thumb jobs.
   276. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4290321)
Bloomberg believes 13-year-olds should have access to the morning-after pill without parental notification or consent,...
It's an extremely interesting issue. While it's wonderful to think that parents being in on the decision can only be to the good, what are the scenarios where that's the case? Would antichoice parents learning of their daughter's desire to terminate the pregnancy with the MAP and preventing her from doing so, compelling her to bring the fetus to term, be a desirable result in practice? What's the scenario where bringing the parents into the situation and their influencing the 13 year old's decision in favor of bearing a child (presumably the ultimate purpose of notification) works well for the 13 year old?

Of course we want loving parents involved in the critical life decisions of their 13 year old children, but in practice it plays out rather differently wrt the MAP and notification, and that's not even taking into account the issues implicit in a 13 year old who does not want her parents knowing she's pregnant.
   277. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4290323)
Yeah tell that to the banks.

I will.

Stupid actions by one does not negate the stupid actions of another.
   278. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4290324)
Of course we want loving parents involved in critical life decisions of their 13 year old children, but in fact it plays out rather differently wrt the MAP and notification.

How is it any different than giving an aspirin or any other basic medication to a minor, which can't be done without parental consent?

The idea that 13-year-olds should have access to the morning-after pill, or even to abortion, without parental notification or consent, while those same 13-year-olds can't get their ears pierced, go tanning, or be given an aspirin by the school nurse, is patently absurd.
   279. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4290326)
Here is what I said almost one year ago.


The banks bear a responsibility to their investors and quite clearly they made bad choices. Buyers bear a responsibility to themselves and their families and quite clearly they made bad choices. The government bears a responsibility to all of us and quite clearly they made bad choices.
   280. Guapo Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4290327)
Joe, the hurricane hit Northern Virginia quite badly. Arlington and Fairfax county in particular. They shut down early voting for two days. O'Donnell just ordered extended early voting in the affected counties to compensate.

   281. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4290332)
But since I am self employed (for less than two years) I can not get a refi.

Not unsympathetic, but part of the mortgage problem was that people were fudging their earnings & assets to get loans on property they really couldn't afford. Self-employed may have more ability to do that, although I'm sure that isn't what anyone here is doing. I guess self-employed may also be considered more volatile than those employed by more established companies, which might account for the two-year requirement.
   282. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4290333)
In todays world we don't generally allow 13 year olds to act as adults or expect them to make good decisions, so we often use parents as a proxy (since they are the proximate responsible adult and have some degree of responsibility for the child). So it is not crazy to want to insert parents into the decision process.

Of course 13 years old are biologically old enough to make decisions which result in them being pregnant and in the real world some parents are terrible proxies for this sort of decision. If they (parents) are not involved in the decison, the 13 year old decides to have the child aren't the grand parents basically financially on the hook for the kid and grandkid?

Really I don't think there are any good solutions once the teenage pregnancy occurs. Sex education and easy access to birth control is important everyone.

But in any event things happen and I think there is a pretty good case to be made for having some adult proxy in the process even if not the parent. I don't know enough about the details about what Bloomberg wants to know more though.

   283. Tilden Katz Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4290335)
The idea that 13-year-olds should have access to the morning-after pill, or even to abortion, without parental notification or consent but those same 13-year-olds can't get their ears pierced, go tanning, or be given an aspirin by the school nurse, is patently absurd.


Teenage girls should have access to all health care services, including aspirin or any other medication, without parental consent. The right to get your ears pierced or to get a hideous tan isn't as fundamental as the right to make one's own health decisions, but I'd support those too. I'll sign a petition to that effect. Would you sign a petition in favor of guaranteeing a female's right to make her own reproductive decisions free from any interference from any parental, religious, or governmental authority?
   284. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4290336)
Joe, the hurricane hit Northern Virginia quite badly. Arlington and Fairfax county in particular. They shut down early voting for two days. O'Donnell just ordered extended early voting in the affected counties to compensate.

Thanks. I hadn't gotten that impression from the news reports or especially from Primates from the D.C. and No. Virginia areas. Still, it's hard to imagine that a two-day shutdown of early voting would be enough to cause a ~20 percent hit in the Obama strongholds. Hasn't early voting been underway in Virginia for several weeks?
   285. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4290339)
but the wasteland states -- who already get tons of over-representation as it is -- would never give up any power.


zonk,

Do you think it's possible that the fact that you refer to them as "wasteland states" is one reason they might be hesitant to hand over some of the power they have to you?

The history of world politics is a history of the majority screwing with the minority because they can. When it comes to New York and California vs Montana and Idaho in a pure democracy, which pair do you think should be more concerned?
   286. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4290340)
Teenage girls should have access to all health care services, including aspirin or any other medication, without parental consent. The right to get your ears pierced or to get a hideous tan isn't as fundamental as the right to make one's own health decisions, but I'd support those too. I'll sign a petition to that effect. Would you sign a petition in favor of guaranteeing a female's right to make her own reproductive decisions free from any interference from any parental, religious, or governmental authority?

For 13-year-olds? No, I would not.

Do you believe the average 13-year-old girl is mature enough to consent to have sex with a 40-year-old man? If so, I suspect you're in a very small minority. And if not, then why would that 13-year-old be considered mature enough to consent to medication or medical procedures without any parental involvement?
   287. Danny Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4290341)
The Times' Public Editor scolds Silver:
In a phone conversation, Mr. Silver described the wager offer as “half playful and half serious.”

“He’s been on a rant, calling me an idiot and a partisan, so I’m asking him to put some integrity behind it,” he said. “I don’t stand to gain anything from it; it’s for charity.”

He added that he is feeling the strain of being under attack and vulnerable to criticism as Election Day approaches.

“It’s a high-stress time,” he said.

I can understand and sympathize with that.

But whatever the motivation behind it, the wager offer is a bad idea – giving ammunition to the critics who want to paint Mr. Silver as a partisan who is trying to sway the outcome.

It’s also inappropriate for a Times journalist, which is how Mr. Silver is seen by the public even though he’s not a regular staff member.

She also describes him as "probably [the Times'] most high-profile writer at this particular moment."
   288. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4290344)
The banks bear a responsibility to their investors and quite clearly they made bad choices. Buyers bear a responsibility to themselves and their families and quite clearly they made bad choices. The government bears a responsibility to all of us and quite clearly they made bad choices.

I'd feel a lot better about this if decision-makers at the banks got the same treatment as taxpayers got in 2008-2009 and the home buyers got when they were foreclosed.

BTW this isn't really an MBS problem. My employer buys and sells MBSs all the time, and no home owner notices a thing. When somebody on the service end changes though, things get complicated. And the western credit apparatus was built for speed, not 'complicated'.
   289. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4290345)
We're getting to the point where there might be an interesting biopic about Nate Silver in a few years.
   290. Tilden Katz Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4290346)
For 13-year-olds? No, I would not.


So it's not a nanny state when the government is trying to put in place a restriction that aligns with your political beliefs?
   291. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4290347)
Do you believe the average 13-year-old girl is mature enough to consent to have sex with a 40-year-old?


Are you under the impression that the only way a 13-year-old girl can need morning-after contraception is if she consented to sex with another man? Think about that a little.
   292. GregD Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4290348)
zonk,

Do you think it's possible that the fact that you refer to them as "wasteland states" is one reason they might be hesitant to hand over some of the power they have to you?

The history of world politics is a history of the majority screwing with the minority because they can. When it comes to New York and California vs Montana and Idaho in a pure democracy, which pair do you think should be more concerned?
I'm not zonk and I wouldn't call them wasteland states but I can say with absolute certainty that the Great Plains and Far West were using their power to stick the rest of the country with the bill before zonk's grandparents first blinked at each other. So as for me, I'm going to doubt your causality.

It's just not that complicated. Rural states have extra power. Rural states use extra power to their benefit. There's no missing step where you need to insert name-calling from other people to explain the outcome.

It isn't their fault they have extra power--mostly it's the fault of 19th century Republicans scrambling to save their bacon. But it does have real and not always good consequences.
   293. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4290349)
It’s also inappropriate for a Times journalist, which is how Mr. Silver is seen by the public even though he’s not a regular staff member.
Makes me wonder how long Silver is for the Times, post-election.
   294. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4290355)
Correct me if I'm wrong, Silver owns his site, but contracts it to the NYT - right? In any case, I bet it's a mutually beneficial relationship.
   295. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4290356)
I'd feel a lot better about this if decision-makers at the banks got the same treatment as taxpayers got in 2008-2009 and the home buyers got when they were foreclosed.

You mean like not having to pay a dime in mortgage payments for years and sometimes for decades like a few select cases?
   296. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4290357)
So it's not a nanny state when the government is trying to put in place a restriction that aligns with your political beliefs?

When we've reached the point where we pretend that 13-year-olds don't need parents as long as bureaucrats are around, while 40-year-olds need the mayor of New York City to make their beverage selections, then, yes, I'm comfortable calling it a Nanny State.

***
Are you under the impression that the only way a 13-year-old girl can need morning-after contraception is if she consented to sex with another man? Think about that a little.

Where are you going with this? Are you referring to rape? Consensual sex with another minor? (And what do you mean by "another man"?)
   297. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4290359)
538 is licensed to/hosted on NYT's website for 3 years. That contract, I believe, is up in June of 2013.
   298. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4290360)
Where are you going with this? Are you referring to rape? Consensual sex with another minor? (And what do you mean by "another man"?)


Good point - "man", then.

I'm pointing out that one of the most obvious reasons for not requiring parental consent in these cases is that the 13-year-old won't seek the care she needs if she knows that her parents will be notified, and that sometimes goes along with her not consenting. And that, in a (presumably) small but tragic fraction of these cases, it's because her parents were in some way culpable. It would be nice to believe that would we would never, ever have to consider that arrangement of events when making policy, but, outrageously, this is a thing that happens.
   299. Tilden Katz Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4290361)
When we've reached the point where we pretend that 13-year-olds don't need parents but 40-year-olds need the mayor of New York City to make their beverage selections, then, yes, I'm comfortable calling it a Nanny State.


At what age do you think a female should be allowed to make her own reproductive decisions free from parental, religious, or governmental interference?
   300. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4290362)
Obama is now up .1 according to RCP.
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