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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   2601. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:18 AM (#4294184)
my ex-son in law, a professor at a serious college in a serious line of study.

Man, I hope your daughter's name isn't Carmen.
   2602. bob gee Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:19 AM (#4294185)
2597 - and "number of signs in district X favor (romney/obama)". if signs = votes, ron paul would have done much better in the primaries.
   2603. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:19 AM (#4294186)
And I do have a knack for posting lots of stuff right before the flip.

To sum up: if you aren't voting, I called you a selfish, idiot, egotist on the 26th page. Feel free to skip over it.
   2604. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:20 AM (#4294187)
Okay, yard signs are stupid. I have no idea why people put yard signs out.
   2605. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:21 AM (#4294189)
bunyon

what a nice fella you are about the 'not voting' nonsense

i like my summary better. ha, ha
   2606. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:23 AM (#4294191)
Okay, yard signs are stupid. I have no idea why people put yard signs out.


So are all the mail flyers, but, that hasn't stopped the parties from sending about 10 a day to me for the last two weeks.
   2607. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:25 AM (#4294192)
2605: I like your summary, too and I was much more long winded in the posts before the flip. I was reading on my iphone last night but couldn't remember my password. So it all sort of simmered and I found myself in at work early and with an unexpectedly free hour or so.

   2608. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:25 AM (#4294193)
bunyon

this was mentioned elsewhere but the premise of yard signs is signalling ot others that person 'x' is really popular so if you are a voter swayed by such things then said voter will vote for the popular guy

there is a small population of the voting public who wants to be associated with the 'winner' and in a tight race you look for every edge

   2609. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:26 AM (#4294194)
This may be the dumbest thing ever posted on BBTF.


Agree. Of course voting is important it is a Democracy.

Al Franken: 1,212,629
Norm Coleman: 1,212,317

We have already had enough people in this thread suggest voting is worthless or that they are not going to vote to impact the 2008 MN Senate race.

Of course the best part is people don't want to vote (not significant enough) but then spend their time on a baseball geek website talking politics.
Anyway everyone (even Ray) should vote, but it is a free country.

Finally bbc - you are just plain wrong I am sorry to say. The American political system is founded on compromise and it is an important part of how things work (and still does happen, though it is rare on the federal level), but it is a means to an end and not an end. The actual policies matter, laws matter. A good law passed in a partisan fashion is better than a crap law with bipartisan support.
   2610. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:26 AM (#4294195)
Woke up and hit refresh to see that we jumped two pages and figured we moved on. Glad to see we're still arguing about voting or not voting.

This whole notion that you can only change the situation by voting and that it is dumb to complain if you don't vote is nothing more than people buying into the ad campaigns. If you think your vote makes a difference then you are truly dumb. There are many ways to make a difference voting is probably the least effective way of doing it.
   2611. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:26 AM (#4294196)
UnSkewed has backed their "final" projection down to Romney 275-263, RTG.


What a chicken...

Duly noted in the spreadsheet.

   2612. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:28 AM (#4294198)

a country is influenced by a collection of individual votes


I love this quote Harveys.

I'm a bit biased. My father came here from Cuba when he was 15 years old so from him I've gained an appreciation of how fortunate we are here. Voting is just about the easiest thing we can do and it's something we are fortunate to be able to do. If you are physically able to vote, you should do so.
   2613. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:28 AM (#4294199)
We have already had enough people in this thread suggest voting is worthless or that they are not going to vote to impact the 2008 MN Senate race.

I don't think we have over 300 members who a) have said they don't vote, b) live in Minnesota, and C) have said they would have voted for Coleman.
   2614. Greg K Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:29 AM (#4294200)
Andy's original point was that he knew people who voted for Nader and then gnashed their teeth that Bush won. That is a fair point. A 3rd party vote has to be done with the understanding the wrong lizard may win.

I remember thinking Nader stealing votes from Gore in 2000 might be a good thing because it would force the Democrats away from the centre in the next election.

Though to be fair, being a 16 year old Canadian kid I
A) knew next to nothing about American politics
B) was too young to vote
C) couldn't vote in America anyway

My ideal take on voting in general is to join Evelyn Waugh in not wishing to presume to advise the Queen how to run her country. But seeing as modern political culture doesn't allow her to run it herself anyway, I feel ok casting the occasional vote.
   2615. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:31 AM (#4294201)
There are many ways to make a difference voting is probably the least effective way of doing it.

I assume you're talking about making a difference in government policy. If so, would care to list the all these different ways I can make a difference?
   2616. Spahn Insane Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:33 AM (#4294203)
Duly noted in the spreadsheet.

I can't keep up with this thread anymore, but--did Dick Morris's 440-98 Romney win prediction not make the spreadsheet?
   2617. Greg K Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:33 AM (#4294204)
I assume you're talking about making a difference in government policy. If so, would care to list the all these different ways I can make a difference?

Not to mention why you can't vote and do those things.
   2618. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:35 AM (#4294205)
This whole nation that you can only change the situation by voting and that it is dumb to complain if you don't vote is nothing more than people buying into the ad campaigns. If you think your vote makes a difference then you are truly dumb. There are many ways to make a difference voting is probably the least effective way of doing it.


Wait, what? Who said only way? Voting in the general is a way to influence. So is voting in the primary. So is giving money and volunteering your time. So is contacting your representative and letting them know what you think. heck so is posting here, talking to your friends, letters to the editor and so on.

Just because some are more effective than others doesn't mean you stop. They are not mutually exclusive - "Oh crap that ten minutes I spent voting in the general election means I can't give money next primary."

However, if you feel you are a victim, a piece of bark in the giant ocean unable to influence anything, washed about by forces beyond your control, then I feel sorry for you because it is a self fulfilling notion. No one is captain of their own destiny, but everyone can influence their destiny unless they decide not to.
   2619. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:35 AM (#4294206)
BREAKING FROM FOX NEWS: MEMBER OF BLACK PANTHER PARTY OMINOUSLY STANDING OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA POLLING PLACE.

(Vote suppression!!)
   2620. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:37 AM (#4294207)
Not to mention why you can't vote and do those things.

Right.

Not knowing what list he's going to come up with - I assume stuff like lobbying, getting to know people in power, etc., all of that can change with an election. Incumbents don't lose enough for my taste but they do lose. And the new guy always shakes things up a bit - organizational makeovers and whatnot.


Now, if he wasn't talking specifically about government, I agree, there are a number of important things one can do to make a community better in which the <u>individual</u> has more power than a single vote. And you should do those things if you wish.

But it seems as if our non-voting friends think the numbers on election night are just randomly generated instead of actual votes.
   2621. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:39 AM (#4294208)

I think that what Nate and the polls have really captured is that more people in the key states want Obama to be President compared to Romney.

But just as popular vote isn't the be-all, neither is "the total number of people who want you to be President."

If there is a turnout issue on the Democratic side, I don't know how the polls could already know it - even with early voting numbers that do suggest something.

There were a lot of disaffected people who usually don't or who never vote, who got fired up for Obama in 2008. I don't know how any sort of "92 pct certain" number can be put on getting enough of those people into the voting booth again (even granting that in some cases a bus comes to the front door with treats, heh).

I'd certainly give Obama more than a 50 pct chance, but it seems to me that all the 92 pct figure is doing is reflecting sentiment (likelihood that more people favor Obama). In the end, not what matters most.

   2622. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4294209)
Wait, what? Who said only way? Voting in the general is a way to influence. So is voting in the primary. So is giving money and volunteering your time. So is contacting your representative and letting them know what you think. heck so is posting here, talking to your friends, letters to the editor and so on.

All true. But no matter how much money changes hands or how many letters get written, if that doesn't translate to votes, it doesn't matter.

If I write an angry letter that is also well-reasoned but end it with "However, I won't be voting in the next election." the letter goes straight into the bin.


Had a similar thing at work. A professional organization is (unreasonably, even in my capitalistic view) hiking journal rates dramatically. To the point that many/most small schools won't be able to afford those publications. Our library put together a really nice letter to send them and asked us all, as organization members, to sign the letter.

Okay, fine, sure, I'll sign. Along with that letter is one saying we're renewing our subscriptions. How much weight will the first letter hold?
   2623. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:42 AM (#4294211)
Just because I have always liked it, the starfish story, which I was reminded of by the "voting is stupid" crowd.
   2624. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:44 AM (#4294213)
Okay, yard signs are stupid. I have no idea why people put yard signs out.

Someone put a bunch of Romney/Ryan and republican tricket yard signs on the state-owned Oriskany Creek fishing area in my county, public land. I pulled them down, feeling like Mayor Royce's people. Would I have pulled down Obama signs? Not sure. They would have absolutely, positively annoyed me, but partisanship may have held my hand. BUT, maybe not, because I really find that kind of thing irritating.
   2625. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:45 AM (#4294214)
Man, yard signs are so worthless, but if you don't have them in a campaign people come to the office and ##### so much about not being able to get one. Seriously, the yard sign war means jack all.
   2626. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:45 AM (#4294215)
Okay, Harveys, I get your point about people wanting to vote for a winner. It's stupid, but I get it.

   2627. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:45 AM (#4294216)
Okay, I voted early and often for the next president, Gary Johnson. (Slogan: "The least nutty Libertarian Party nominee ever!") The rest is just waiting to see if he sweeps all 538 electoral votes or if there's a faithless elector somewhere.
   2628. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:46 AM (#4294217)
This whole notion that you can only change the situation by voting

Cokes, but not a single human being here said this, so, why did you?
   2629. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:49 AM (#4294220)
There are many ways to make a difference voting is probably the least effective way of doing it.


Stupid suffragettes and civil rights marchers, getting beaten and going to prison for something that's nearly worthless.
   2630. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:52 AM (#4294221)
just out of curiousity - after all these kazillion thousand posts, has even ONE guy changed his mind on any political issue or brought up anything that hadn't already been said by like june?
Before, I thought you were all crazy and I wouldn't trust any of you to handle any position higher than dogcatcher. Now, I wouldn't trust any of you to handle any position INCLUDING dogcatcher.
   2631. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:53 AM (#4294222)
Dude, you want a dog caught, I'm your man. I'm like Dr. Doolittle, and nicer and better than that irritating dog whisperer.
   2632. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:55 AM (#4294223)
Stupid suffragettes and civil rights marchers, getting beaten and going to prison for something that's nearly worthless.


If they let everyone do it, clearly it's not that important.
   2633. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:55 AM (#4294224)
I assume you're talking about making a difference in government policy. If so, would care to list the all these different ways I can make a difference?

Donating money
Volunteering
Lobbying
Talking to your fellow man
Helping your fellow man
Joining community clubs
Voting
Running for office . . . . .
   2634. DL from MN Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:56 AM (#4294225)
I use the yard signs for signaling some times. I look to see which non-endorsed office candidates are clustered with the other ones I don't support. It's a pretty good shorthand to find the crackpots.
   2635. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:57 AM (#4294226)
Just because some are more effective than others doesn't mean you stop.

Of course not but it also doesn't mean that it is dumb to talk about politics or want a better government even though you didn't vote. People in terms of this topic are forcing it to be an only situation by making voting the requirement to have a say.
   2636. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4294229)
Stupid suffragettes and civil rights marchers, getting beaten and going to prison for something that's nearly worthless.

I've always thought so.
   2637. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4294230)
I can't keep up with this thread anymore, but--did Dick Morris's 440-98 Romney win prediction not make the spreadsheet?


Actually, it was Jim Cramer's 440-98 OBAMA win that made the spreadsheet.
Dick Morris called it 325-213 for Romney.

Spreadsheet here
   2638. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4294231)
I am a voting addict, I vote on anything. The fact that there might be millions of people in my constituency (true of statewide elections in Texas) doesn't deter me: as Harv indicates, candidates rack up those huge vote totals one vote at a time. A ballplayer doesn't say "it doesn't matter if I get a hit in this inning, it only bumps our WPA by an tiny amount" :)

Long lines at the polls are a bad thing. I canceled my class today (I'm the professor, I get to do that), and I voted long ago myself anyway. But not all employers or teachers give their charges the day off, and not everybody has unlimited personal time or economic leisure to spend seven hours of a weekday standing in line. Open up access, provide lots of booths and clerks. What's the harm? This is supposed to be the central core of our democracy. Governments should act like it matters.
   2639. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4294232)
Okay, I voted early and often for the next president, Gary Johnson. (Slogan: "The least nutty Libertarian Party nominee ever!") The rest is just waiting to see if he sweeps all 538 electoral votes or if there's a faithless elector somewhere.


So, President was the only item on your ballot, or might there have been other, arguably more important races contested? These idiots who think their vote doesn't matter because one vote for president doesn't matter are missing the forest for the bugs under the leaf litter. The most important race on my ballot was not president, or Senator, or state legislator, but sheriff. I've got a stark choice between a traditional good ole boy southern "lock him up, he's bound to be guilty of something" guy and a true civil libertarian. A few years ago a friend of mine ran for city council on a platform that I supported and lost by 3 votes.

Yes, the presidency is important. And yes, one vote will never matter. But focusing on that as an excuse to not vote is galactically stupid.
   2640. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:00 AM (#4294233)
in my corner of the world i have had a much better return on my contribution money in influencing the vote than in influencing legislation and how it is written after the fact.

you contribute to someone's campaign and they owe 'you'

you pay folks (lobbyists) to influence others writing legislation and it's a much taller hill to climb

i am all about the vote. love the vote.
   2641. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:01 AM (#4294235)
These idiots who think their vote doesn't matter because one vote for president doesn't matter are missing the forest for the bugs under the leaf litter.

I live in DC my vote truly does not matter.
   2642. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:02 AM (#4294237)
Okay, yard signs are stupid. I have no idea why people put yard signs out.
Voting is primarily a form of self-expression. Yard signs cut out one of the middlemen (the poll workers).
   2643. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:03 AM (#4294238)
I live in DC my vote truly does not matter.


Is there nothing on your ballot of any importance to you that might be a close vote? Nothing at all? Even if so, you are in a tiny, tiny minority in this country.
   2644. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:04 AM (#4294239)
   2645. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:10 AM (#4294242)
Donating money - used by candidates to gain...votes
Volunteering
for what, exactly? most political volunteering I know of is to...get out the vote
Lobbying
of course. But, again, the guy you're lobbying is worried about keeping his job. Which requires...votes.
Talking to your fellow man
Why does this help? Talking politics without voting is masturbatory back slapping at its finest
Helping your fellow man
okay, sure, but not really part of the political process - I won't argue that this is probably the most powerful means available to an individual to influence his community
Joining community clubs
meh
Voting
Running for office . . . . .


Right. Do that and you won't think voting stupid.

   2646. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:11 AM (#4294243)
So, President was the only item on your ballot, or might there have been other, arguably more important races contested?
There was also Senate, where Menendez will win by 20 percentage points over Joseph Kyrillos (Slogan: "Who?"), the town council (which handles important issues like putting out press releases), and the county board of chosen freeholders (Collective slogan: "Elect us so we can figure out what a County Freeholder is.")

Plus a ballot question about borrowing oodles of money to spend on pork and another about whether state judges can be forced to pay more of their own pensions.

There was a libertarian senate candidate; none for the other positions, so I continued my usual tradition of writing in the names of family members.
   2647. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:12 AM (#4294244)
Is there nothing on your ballot of any importance to you that might be a close vote? Nothing at all? Even if so, you are in a tiny, tiny minority in this country.

Nothing but elected positions on my ballot and DC goes something like 60-80% Democrat every single time.
   2648. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4294245)
county board of chosen freeholders

Or as we used to call it in Gloucester County, the Board of Frozen Cheeseholders.
   2649. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:20 AM (#4294246)
Of course not but it also doesn't mean that it is dumb to talk about politics or want a better government even though you didn't vote. People in terms of this topic are forcing it to be an only situation by making voting the requirement to have a say.


The statement "If you don't vote you don't get to complain" - which I didn't say earleir, but I certainly have plenty of time before - to me is shorthand for "stop your ######## and do something about it, and if you refuse to do anything and keep ######## don't expect me to listen".

And I am there. When friends of mine complain about work, a relationship, their weight, or whatever I listen. However, if they refuse to do anything about it, they only ##### and moan, then I stop listening.

If you don't like the situation you are in, it is not likely to get better if you don't actually do something about it. So I watch my weight, exercise, vote, am in charge of my career, give money to causes I care about, and so on. And I have no interest in listening to those who ##### all the time and never do anything about it.

EDIT: And no I am not accusing you of any of that. If you don't want to vote that is OK (though even when it doesn't matter I vote darn it). I am just explaining the attitude behind the don't vote - don't complain.
   2650. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:20 AM (#4294247)
Ten people who don't (or didn't) vote, including guess who?

1. Nate Silver
When “Poblano” began publishing his 2008 presidential election predictions and analyses on Daily Kos in 2007, people paid attention. Then “Poblano” moved to his own blog, FiveThirtyEight.com, where he later revealed he was really Nate Silver, the guy behind PECOTA, a system that predicts Major League Baseball players’ performances. After Silver accurately predicted the results of 49 of 50 states’ 2008 election results (and all 35 Senate races), FiveThirtyEight moved to The New York Times. But none of the eyes on Silver this week will catch him at the polls: he has not voted since he moved to the Times and doesn’t intend to this year, though he told Charlie Rose that if he did, “it would be kind of a Gary Johnson versus Mitt Romney decision.”




   2651. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:21 AM (#4294248)
There was a libertarian senate candidate; none for the other positions, so I continued my usual tradition of writing in the names of family members.

Your infant children, I hope.
   2652. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:24 AM (#4294249)
Your infant children, I hope.
Yup. Among others. Aside from being a protest, it lets me see who tabulates write-in votes and who doesn't. (Most of the time, those votes never get reported anywhere. Occasionally, I see their names appear.)
   2653. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4294251)
Just got back from voting (Kensington, MD / solidly blue precinct), and I was pleasantly surprised to see that the line and the wait (52 min. total) was even longer than in 2008. This may be because of the gay marriage and Dream Act initiatives that were on the ballot, but FWIW the percentage of brown and black skins looked higher than the last time around.
   2654. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4294252)
Just to piss Weekly Journalist off:

Just got a call from the wife who reports that, at 9am, there was NO line at all at our polling place.
   2655. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:28 AM (#4294253)
Re 2649.

Again, voting isn't the only way to do something about it.
   2656. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:28 AM (#4294254)
Okay, yard signs are stupid. I have no idea why people put yard signs out.



Hey, if it weren't for yard signs I wouldn't know there was a woman running for local office named "Syndee". It take an awful lot of self-confidence to run for office with a stripper name like that. I assume her middle name must be even worse, otherwise she'd be running as "S. Janet Coleman" or something.
   2657. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4294255)
There was no line at my polling place in NY burbs at 6:30 AM according to my wife (I slept in).

It should be an exciting night of watching the local results roll in. If everything breaks right we may have a race on my local ballot decided by less than 30 points (but I doubt it).
   2658. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4294256)
the economists line of reasoning on how votes don't matter is just a canard to make them feel cool

Oh, I think they're correct, on an individual level. That said, I also think voting is super important (see all the analogies used upthread).

I think the most valuable thing political conversation does is remind us it isn't two rival football teams. That people you disagree strongly with are good, decent people who are only voicing what they believe is best.

Like 90% of the time, which is enough. (The other 10% - #### 'em, whether they agree with me or not.)

but a willing citizen should not have to wait several hours to vote in an election.

Think it was '04 when I had to wait five hours or so? Fair number of people left a few hours in.
   2659. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:31 AM (#4294258)
Your infant children, I hope.


"What is 'the main course?'"

I'll take Titus Andronicus for 200, Alex.
   2660. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:31 AM (#4294259)
"Syndee". It take an awful lot of self-confidence to run for office with a stripper name like that.


Or actress.
   2661. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:32 AM (#4294260)
Again, voting isn't the only way to do something about it.


And I never said it was. However, not the only way of doing something about it is light years from voting is dumb.
   2662. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:32 AM (#4294261)
Just voted in South Bend, Indiana. My precinct already had about half the number of votes it had in the last election, and lunch is usually the busiest time. But I would guess that most of it is the change in absentee ballots. Previously, you could override your absentee ballot by voting in person(absentee ballots were put in last, which was a pain as a poll worker). Now you cannot vote in person if you did by absentee, and the absentee ballots look to have been counted already. So we shall see how much turnout changes compared to last year.
   2663. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:35 AM (#4294262)
I'll take Titus Andronicus for 200, Alex.

I actually bumped into them the other day - they were going to perform at an Obama rally, I was going to my kid's school a few blocks away.
Um, there's no point to that anecdote. Sorry.
   2664. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:36 AM (#4294263)
If you had to choose one Dem to run (or not run, either way) in 2016 between HRC, Al Gore, and Joe Biden who would you choose and why?





I would choose Joe Biden to not run. I think he is a fine Democrat, but too likely to not win in 2016. I want to win darn it and the other two have a better shot (though I think others in the party would have a better shot still).
   2665. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:36 AM (#4294264)
I voted in Brooklyn. The line was short, and there were no campaign workers anywhere near the polling place. By extrapolation, I can predict that turnout will be low, but in an upset, the electorate will be between 70 and 80% Latino.
   2666. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4294265)
Long lines in adams morgan. My cousin in VA has 2.5 hour lines. Thankfully she is a rep so if she doesn't vote it is all good.
   2667. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:40 AM (#4294268)
Long lines in adams morgan. My cousin in VA has 2.5 hour lines. Thankfully she is a rep so if she doesn't v pi te it is all good.

I thought it wouldn't matter?


The line was short, and there were no campaign workers anywhere near the polling place. By extrapolation, I can predict that turnout will be low, but in an upset, the electorate will be between 70 and 80% Latino.

One other really nice touch this morning is the two D and R representatives handing out literature. They were very nice, accepted my declination of their lit with grace and then we all - about five voters at the back of the line and them - had a very pleasant conversation. Not very deep but not completely innocent either. At one point we needed to shift the line and that required moving some stuff. We all pitched in and did it.

Not exactly world peace but it felt good.
   2668. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:41 AM (#4294269)
It doesn't.
   2669. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:41 AM (#4294270)
This may be the dumbest thing ever posted on BBTF.


Realism ? stupidity. Nothing you said was responsive. One vote has never and will never make a difference.
   2670. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:42 AM (#4294271)
2650:

I am taken with these guys not voting (Marshall is not a surprise--he worked really hard at seeming to be be above it all; it isn't even a surprise that he told Truman what he did--this was a man who vowed never to smile or laugh at FDR's jokes and general bonhomie):

3, 4 and 5. Generals David Petraeus, George C. Marshall and William Tecumseh Sherman

Though he is registered as a Republican, General Petraeus stopped voting in 2002, when he became a two-star general “to avoid being pulled in one direction or another, to be in a sense used by one side or the other.” His voter abstinence follows a long military trend of non-voting generals, which includes both Marshall and Sherman. General Marshall famously disagreed with President Truman’s plan to recognize the state of Israel, saying, “If I were to vote in the election, I would vote against you.”


   2671. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:42 AM (#4294272)
One vote has never and will never make a difference.

Cool. Don't vote then. I realized thinking about it that I'd actually like folks not to vote. If I can convince everyone else not to vote, I'll rule the world.
   2672. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:44 AM (#4294274)
Realism ? stupidity. Nothing you said was responsive. One vote has never and will never make a difference.
Voting, like most of the acts we take in our life, is best understood as a communal and collective act, one we undertake with other people. We join together as members of a coalition which can make a difference. The claim that human acts are best understood as hermetically sealed individual acts fails to account for the necessary communal and political nature of humans.
   2673. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:45 AM (#4294275)
If nobody else votes nobody is going to listen to you.
   2674. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:46 AM (#4294276)
One vote has never and will never make a difference.


One hit has never and will never make a difference. You're not going to move your OBP significantly in one at bat!
   2675. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:47 AM (#4294277)
If nobody else votes nobody is going to listen to you.

I'll win 1-0. You aren't saying not voting is revolution. You're prepared to engage in the system, just not cast a vote. It's a ridiculous stance. However, you seem determined that I'm the ridiculous one, so we may as well drop it. You keep talking to people and thinking you're having an effect.
   2676. tshipman Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:48 AM (#4294278)
I hate that Gary Johnson gets this presumption of reasonability just because he's a third party candidate.

Gary Johnson would immediately plunge the country into a depression on purpose if he were elected. He's a total fraud and he should receive zero votes.
   2677. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:49 AM (#4294280)
Gary Johnson would immediately plunge the country into a depression on purpose if he were elected. He's a total fraud and he should receive zero votes.
I think he'd have to get in line behind Obama for that.

EDIT: But tell me more about the presumption of reasonableness for third party candidates. I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
   2678. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:52 AM (#4294282)
I thought this was funny. I am admittedly a sucker for ev-psych snark, with a side helping of pop-psych snark.

Hormonally Compromised: How the Women of Slate really voted:
Laura Anderson, assistant editor: My ballot was mostly soaked from all the tears I shed while wondering why I’m still single, so I just filled in the few bubbles that stayed dry.

Allison Benedikt, editor, "Double X": I'm pregnant so forgot to vote. Is there still time? Do you have any ice cream?

Aisha Harris, "Brow Beat" assistant: I'm voting for Obama because he's a black man married to a black woman and takes care of his kids, and that turns me on. Considering how often the media reminds me that I'm likely to be single and lonely forever, I need to grasp onto every bit of hope I can that I will one day find the Barack to my Michelle.

Laura Helmuth, science and health editor: I am voting for Romney because I am attracted to men who control vast economic resources and can thus provide reliable food and shelter for my offspring.

Amanda Hess, "Double X" contributor: Since I'm not ovulating this week, I'm finding myself really attracted to men with more feminine facial features. I voted for the guy with the least-square head: President Obama.

Juliana Jiménez, art intern: I'm staunchly pro-Obama but accidentally voted for Romney when I remembered all the manly sons he has and what an alpha male he is. My ovaries want many manly sons too.

J. Bryan Lowder, editorial assistant for culture: Obama because I think I have low testosterone and so do not feel masculine enough to compete in a winner-take-all society.

Amanda Marcotte, "Double X" contributor: I brought my cat into the voting booth with me and let her fill out my ballot.

Alyssa Rosenberg, "Double X" contributor: I got into a stupid argument last night, and in general am handling election stress poorly, so I wrote in Leslie Knope for DC City Council. While finishing a chocolate waffle. Slightly concerned that the whipped cream stains will mean that the voting machine won't count my ballot right.

Hanna Rosin, founder, "Double X": I was determined not to let it happen to me. All day I gripped three copies of my own book tightly against my chest and whispered to myself "I am strong. I have won," over and over again. But then the hard cover against my tender ovulation phase breast reminded me that I am for half my life in fact not in control of my own mind. So I gave in and decided to vote for Obama. He's the cute one, right?

Katy Waldman, assistant editor: I am voting for facial cleanser and a large piece of cheese.
   2679. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:54 AM (#4294284)
Re 2675. And why do you think the rule of law would be in effect in a 1-0 election?
   2680. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:54 AM (#4294285)
I think he'd have to get in line behind Obama for that.

Obama had as much responsibility for the 2007 depression as the candidates you just voted for.
   2681. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4294286)
BREAKING FROM FOX NEWS: MEMBER OF BLACK PANTHER PARTY OMINOUSLY STANDING OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA POLLING PLACE.


I'm pretty sure those are surplus S1W's from the last Public Enemy tour. Somebody play "Welcome To the Terrordome" and see if they break into their routine.
   2682. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4294287)
I think he'd have to get in line behind Obama for that.


You're precious.
   2683. tshipman Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4294288)
EDIT: But tell me more about the presumption of reasonableness for third party candidates. I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

People who vote third party often choose to focus on a few favorable policies, and they never hear about the completely ridiculous policies that their third party candidate is suggesting.

Generally, people refer to voting 3rd party as "throwing your vote away" rather than "voting for a dangerous lunatic."

People should refer to voting for Gary Johnson as voting for a dangerous lunatic, and for voting for Jill Stein as voting for a pandering liar who has no ability to produce what she is selling.
   2684. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4294289)
2678 - that is pretty funny
   2685. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:01 AM (#4294290)
I hate that Gary Johnson gets this presumption of reasonability just because he's a third party candidate.


Expecting a Libertarian to be reasonable makes as much sense as expecting the Pope to be reasonable.

Gary Johnson would immediately plunge the country into a depression on purpose if he were elected. He's a total fraud and he should receive zero votes.


Conservative/Libertarian attitudes played it's role in the economy tanking. And they continue to want to play Russian Roulette with the well-being of this country.

   2686. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4294291)
It's true: Johnson IS a dangerous lunatic. Why, the last time someone made him executive, he turned his state into one overrun by Mexicans. (New ones, at that.) I mean, the man's just crazy to think that a failed 19th century ideology founded on envy might not be the best way to run a country.
   2687. The Good Face Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4294292)
One vote has never and will never make a difference.


One hit has never and will never make a difference. You're not going to move your OBP significantly in one at bat!


That's a terrible comparison; there are lots of times when one hit makes a huge difference. The problem is there's just no such thing as clutch voting.
   2688. formerly dp Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4294293)
#2678 is awesome.

As a state employee, I have a government-mandated day off. Which sounds nicer than it is-- all they did was switch a sensibly-scheduled off-day to one that could not come at a worse time of the semester. The plus side is I get to vote in the middle of the day, so hopefully dodge a long line.

Has anyone else used Google to help them find their polling place (mine was demolished between the primary and this election)? It's kind of awesome. They have directions to the polling place, and then a breakdown of the ballot race-by-race.
   2689. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:07 AM (#4294294)
People should refer to voting for Gary Johnson as voting for a dangerous lunatic, and for voting for Jill Stein as voting for a pandering liar who has no ability to produce what she is selling.


Gary Johnson's foreign policy is neither dangerous nor lunatic. His economic policy is crazy. As with any third party candidate in the US system, he (and Jill Stein) have the option of hewing more closely to utopian "what should be" claims than practical "what we can accomplish" because he knows he'll never win, and thus never have to keep the utopian promise.
   2690. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4294295)
there are lots of times when one hit makes a huge difference

I found that I needed 4 or 5 hits to make a huge difference. Then again, I hear the pot these days is 5-10x stronger than 30-40 years ago so maybe one hit is plenty any more.
   2691. formerly dp Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4294296)
I mean, the man's just crazy to think that a failed 19th century ideology founded on envy might not be the best way to run a country.


So you want him to replace it with a failed 19th century ideology founded on MINEMINEMINEMINE!!!!!
   2692. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4294297)
Gary Johnson's foreign policy is neither dangerous nor lunatic. His economic policy is crazy. As with any third party candidate in the US system, he (and Jill Stein) have the option of hewing more closely to utopian "what should be" claims than practical "what we can accomplish" because he knows he'll never win, and thus never have to keep the utopian promise

True. And because it is fairly unlikely they get to work with a Libertarian Congress, there is zero chance of their enacting the policies unaltered.

But, by all means, choose which group of corporate shills gets our tax dollars.

   2693. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:10 AM (#4294298)
there are lots of times when one hit makes a huge difference


See Hoffa, Jimmy.
   2694. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4294299)
A couple links (Taken from Daily Kos, so sue me).

First your excuse sucks.

Second:
Vote411. Plug in your address and find out where your polling station is and information about your registration.
• An interactive map with hundreds of links to state-by-state election websites, including voter guides, provisional voting information and polling place hours and locations.
• 1-800-311-8683 Voter Help Line set up by the Democratic Party
• 1-866-MYVOTE1 (866-698-6831)
• 1-866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683)
• 1-888-VE-Y-VOTA (en Español)
   2695. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4294301)
I mean, the man's just crazy to think that a failed 19th century ideology founded on envy might not be the best way to run a country.

So you want him to replace it with a failed 19th century ideology founded on MINEMINEMINEMINE!!!!!


Don't be ridiculous, arrogant selfishness is much older than the 19th century. It wouldn't even exist as an ideology anymore but Big Government won't allow decent folk to throw these mooching jerks over cliffs like they deserve.
   2696. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4294302)
I'm pretty sure those are surplus S1W's from the last Public Enemy tour. Somebody play "Welcome To the Terrordome" and see if they break into their routine.


Yeah, OK, I laughed.
   2697. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4294303)
That's a terrible comparison; there are lots of times when one hit makes a huge difference. The problem is there's just no such thing as clutch voting.


Palm Beach County, 2000. That's the Derek ####### Jeter of clutch voting.

Regardless, the comparison isn't to clutch hitting, it's to *hitting.* Saying "you shouldn't vote because one vote is meaningless in a large statistical sample" is like saying "the results of Chipper Jones' last at bat is meaningless because it's just one hit in a 20 year career." Yes, in the aggregate, the single event isn't going to move the trend, but if there isn't an accumulation of individual events, THERE IS NO TREND.

It's like saying you don't need any bricks, because one brick will never build a wall.
   2698. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:15 AM (#4294305)
It's like saying you don't need any bricks, because one brick will never build a wall.


We don't need no education!
   2699. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:17 AM (#4294307)
We don't need no education!


This is my grumpy "begrudgingly acknowledged" look.
   2700. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4294308)
It's like saying you don't need any bricks, because one brick will never build a wall.

I used rivets/wings. Should have used bricks. Damn.
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