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Wednesday, October 31, 2012
OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
Joe Kehoskie
Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s)
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Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa
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Man, I hope your daughter's name isn't Carmen.
To sum up: if you aren't voting, I called you a selfish, idiot, egotist on the 26th page. Feel free to skip over it.
what a nice fella you are about the 'not voting' nonsense
i like my summary better. ha, ha
So are all the mail flyers, but, that hasn't stopped the parties from sending about 10 a day to me for the last two weeks.
this was mentioned elsewhere but the premise of yard signs is signalling ot others that person 'x' is really popular so if you are a voter swayed by such things then said voter will vote for the popular guy
there is a small population of the voting public who wants to be associated with the 'winner' and in a tight race you look for every edge
Agree. Of course voting is important it is a Democracy.
Al Franken: 1,212,629
Norm Coleman: 1,212,317
We have already had enough people in this thread suggest voting is worthless or that they are not going to vote to impact the 2008 MN Senate race.
Of course the best part is people don't want to vote (not significant enough) but then spend their time on a baseball geek website talking politics.
Anyway everyone (even Ray) should vote, but it is a free country.
Finally bbc - you are just plain wrong I am sorry to say. The American political system is founded on compromise and it is an important part of how things work (and still does happen, though it is rare on the federal level), but it is a means to an end and not an end. The actual policies matter, laws matter. A good law passed in a partisan fashion is better than a crap law with bipartisan support.
This whole notion that you can only change the situation by voting and that it is dumb to complain if you don't vote is nothing more than people buying into the ad campaigns. If you think your vote makes a difference then you are truly dumb. There are many ways to make a difference voting is probably the least effective way of doing it.
What a chicken...
Duly noted in the spreadsheet.
I love this quote Harveys.
I'm a bit biased. My father came here from Cuba when he was 15 years old so from him I've gained an appreciation of how fortunate we are here. Voting is just about the easiest thing we can do and it's something we are fortunate to be able to do. If you are physically able to vote, you should do so.
I don't think we have over 300 members who a) have said they don't vote, b) live in Minnesota, and C) have said they would have voted for Coleman.
I remember thinking Nader stealing votes from Gore in 2000 might be a good thing because it would force the Democrats away from the centre in the next election.
Though to be fair, being a 16 year old Canadian kid I
A) knew next to nothing about American politics
B) was too young to vote
C) couldn't vote in America anyway
My ideal take on voting in general is to join Evelyn Waugh in not wishing to presume to advise the Queen how to run her country. But seeing as modern political culture doesn't allow her to run it herself anyway, I feel ok casting the occasional vote.
I assume you're talking about making a difference in government policy. If so, would care to list the all these different ways I can make a difference?
I can't keep up with this thread anymore, but--did Dick Morris's 440-98 Romney win prediction not make the spreadsheet?
Not to mention why you can't vote and do those things.
Wait, what? Who said only way? Voting in the general is a way to influence. So is voting in the primary. So is giving money and volunteering your time. So is contacting your representative and letting them know what you think. heck so is posting here, talking to your friends, letters to the editor and so on.
Just because some are more effective than others doesn't mean you stop. They are not mutually exclusive - "Oh crap that ten minutes I spent voting in the general election means I can't give money next primary."
However, if you feel you are a victim, a piece of bark in the giant ocean unable to influence anything, washed about by forces beyond your control, then I feel sorry for you because it is a self fulfilling notion. No one is captain of their own destiny, but everyone can influence their destiny unless they decide not to.
(Vote suppression!!)
Right.
Not knowing what list he's going to come up with - I assume stuff like lobbying, getting to know people in power, etc., all of that can change with an election. Incumbents don't lose enough for my taste but they do lose. And the new guy always shakes things up a bit - organizational makeovers and whatnot.
Now, if he wasn't talking specifically about government, I agree, there are a number of important things one can do to make a community better in which the <u>individual</u> has more power than a single vote. And you should do those things if you wish.
But it seems as if our non-voting friends think the numbers on election night are just randomly generated instead of actual votes.
I think that what Nate and the polls have really captured is that more people in the key states want Obama to be President compared to Romney.
But just as popular vote isn't the be-all, neither is "the total number of people who want you to be President."
If there is a turnout issue on the Democratic side, I don't know how the polls could already know it - even with early voting numbers that do suggest something.
There were a lot of disaffected people who usually don't or who never vote, who got fired up for Obama in 2008. I don't know how any sort of "92 pct certain" number can be put on getting enough of those people into the voting booth again (even granting that in some cases a bus comes to the front door with treats, heh).
I'd certainly give Obama more than a 50 pct chance, but it seems to me that all the 92 pct figure is doing is reflecting sentiment (likelihood that more people favor Obama). In the end, not what matters most.
All true. But no matter how much money changes hands or how many letters get written, if that doesn't translate to votes, it doesn't matter.
If I write an angry letter that is also well-reasoned but end it with "However, I won't be voting in the next election." the letter goes straight into the bin.
Had a similar thing at work. A professional organization is (unreasonably, even in my capitalistic view) hiking journal rates dramatically. To the point that many/most small schools won't be able to afford those publications. Our library put together a really nice letter to send them and asked us all, as organization members, to sign the letter.
Okay, fine, sure, I'll sign. Along with that letter is one saying we're renewing our subscriptions. How much weight will the first letter hold?
Someone put a bunch of Romney/Ryan and republican tricket yard signs on the state-owned Oriskany Creek fishing area in my county, public land. I pulled them down, feeling like Mayor Royce's people. Would I have pulled down Obama signs? Not sure. They would have absolutely, positively annoyed me, but partisanship may have held my hand. BUT, maybe not, because I really find that kind of thing irritating.
Cokes, but not a single human being here said this, so, why did you?
Stupid suffragettes and civil rights marchers, getting beaten and going to prison for something that's nearly worthless.
If they let everyone do it, clearly it's not that important.
Donating money
Volunteering
Lobbying
Talking to your fellow man
Helping your fellow man
Joining community clubs
Voting
Running for office . . . . .
Of course not but it also doesn't mean that it is dumb to talk about politics or want a better government even though you didn't vote. People in terms of this topic are forcing it to be an only situation by making voting the requirement to have a say.
I've always thought so.
Actually, it was Jim Cramer's 440-98 OBAMA win that made the spreadsheet.
Dick Morris called it 325-213 for Romney.
Spreadsheet here
Long lines at the polls are a bad thing. I canceled my class today (I'm the professor, I get to do that), and I voted long ago myself anyway. But not all employers or teachers give their charges the day off, and not everybody has unlimited personal time or economic leisure to spend seven hours of a weekday standing in line. Open up access, provide lots of booths and clerks. What's the harm? This is supposed to be the central core of our democracy. Governments should act like it matters.
So, President was the only item on your ballot, or might there have been other, arguably more important races contested? These idiots who think their vote doesn't matter because one vote for president doesn't matter are missing the forest for the bugs under the leaf litter. The most important race on my ballot was not president, or Senator, or state legislator, but sheriff. I've got a stark choice between a traditional good ole boy southern "lock him up, he's bound to be guilty of something" guy and a true civil libertarian. A few years ago a friend of mine ran for city council on a platform that I supported and lost by 3 votes.
Yes, the presidency is important. And yes, one vote will never matter. But focusing on that as an excuse to not vote is galactically stupid.
you contribute to someone's campaign and they owe 'you'
you pay folks (lobbyists) to influence others writing legislation and it's a much taller hill to climb
i am all about the vote. love the vote.
I live in DC my vote truly does not matter.
Is there nothing on your ballot of any importance to you that might be a close vote? Nothing at all? Even if so, you are in a tiny, tiny minority in this country.
Ten people who don't (or didn't) vote, including guess who?
Volunteering for what, exactly? most political volunteering I know of is to...get out the vote
Lobbying of course. But, again, the guy you're lobbying is worried about keeping his job. Which requires...votes.
Talking to your fellow man Why does this help? Talking politics without voting is masturbatory back slapping at its finest
Helping your fellow man okay, sure, but not really part of the political process - I won't argue that this is probably the most powerful means available to an individual to influence his community
Joining community clubs meh
Voting
Running for office . . . . .
Right. Do that and you won't think voting stupid.
Plus a ballot question about borrowing oodles of money to spend on pork and another about whether state judges can be forced to pay more of their own pensions.
There was a libertarian senate candidate; none for the other positions, so I continued my usual tradition of writing in the names of family members.
Nothing but elected positions on my ballot and DC goes something like 60-80% Democrat every single time.
Or as we used to call it in Gloucester County, the Board of Frozen Cheeseholders.
The statement "If you don't vote you don't get to complain" - which I didn't say earleir, but I certainly have plenty of time before - to me is shorthand for "stop your ######## and do something about it, and if you refuse to do anything and keep ######## don't expect me to listen".
And I am there. When friends of mine complain about work, a relationship, their weight, or whatever I listen. However, if they refuse to do anything about it, they only ##### and moan, then I stop listening.
If you don't like the situation you are in, it is not likely to get better if you don't actually do something about it. So I watch my weight, exercise, vote, am in charge of my career, give money to causes I care about, and so on. And I have no interest in listening to those who ##### all the time and never do anything about it.
EDIT: And no I am not accusing you of any of that. If you don't want to vote that is OK (though even when it doesn't matter I vote darn it). I am just explaining the attitude behind the don't vote - don't complain.
Your infant children, I hope.
Just got a call from the wife who reports that, at 9am, there was NO line at all at our polling place.
Again, voting isn't the only way to do something about it.
Hey, if it weren't for yard signs I wouldn't know there was a woman running for local office named "Syndee". It take an awful lot of self-confidence to run for office with a stripper name like that. I assume her middle name must be even worse, otherwise she'd be running as "S. Janet Coleman" or something.
It should be an exciting night of watching the local results roll in. If everything breaks right we may have a race on my local ballot decided by less than 30 points (but I doubt it).
Oh, I think they're correct, on an individual level. That said, I also think voting is super important (see all the analogies used upthread).
Like 90% of the time, which is enough. (The other 10% - #### 'em, whether they agree with me or not.)
Think it was '04 when I had to wait five hours or so? Fair number of people left a few hours in.
"What is 'the main course?'"
I'll take Titus Andronicus for 200, Alex.
Or actress.
And I never said it was. However, not the only way of doing something about it is light years from voting is dumb.
I actually bumped into them the other day - they were going to perform at an Obama rally, I was going to my kid's school a few blocks away.
Um, there's no point to that anecdote. Sorry.
I would choose Joe Biden to not run. I think he is a fine Democrat, but too likely to not win in 2016. I want to win darn it and the other two have a better shot (though I think others in the party would have a better shot still).
I thought it wouldn't matter?
The line was short, and there were no campaign workers anywhere near the polling place. By extrapolation, I can predict that turnout will be low, but in an upset, the electorate will be between 70 and 80% Latino.
One other really nice touch this morning is the two D and R representatives handing out literature. They were very nice, accepted my declination of their lit with grace and then we all - about five voters at the back of the line and them - had a very pleasant conversation. Not very deep but not completely innocent either. At one point we needed to shift the line and that required moving some stuff. We all pitched in and did it.
Not exactly world peace but it felt good.
Realism ? stupidity. Nothing you said was responsive. One vote has never and will never make a difference.
I am taken with these guys not voting (Marshall is not a surprise--he worked really hard at seeming to be be above it all; it isn't even a surprise that he told Truman what he did--this was a man who vowed never to smile or laugh at FDR's jokes and general bonhomie):
Cool. Don't vote then. I realized thinking about it that I'd actually like folks not to vote. If I can convince everyone else not to vote, I'll rule the world.
One hit has never and will never make a difference. You're not going to move your OBP significantly in one at bat!
I'll win 1-0. You aren't saying not voting is revolution. You're prepared to engage in the system, just not cast a vote. It's a ridiculous stance. However, you seem determined that I'm the ridiculous one, so we may as well drop it. You keep talking to people and thinking you're having an effect.
Gary Johnson would immediately plunge the country into a depression on purpose if he were elected. He's a total fraud and he should receive zero votes.
EDIT: But tell me more about the presumption of reasonableness for third party candidates. I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
Hormonally Compromised: How the Women of Slate really voted:
Obama had as much responsibility for the 2007 depression as the candidates you just voted for.
I'm pretty sure those are surplus S1W's from the last Public Enemy tour. Somebody play "Welcome To the Terrordome" and see if they break into their routine.
You're precious.
People who vote third party often choose to focus on a few favorable policies, and they never hear about the completely ridiculous policies that their third party candidate is suggesting.
Generally, people refer to voting 3rd party as "throwing your vote away" rather than "voting for a dangerous lunatic."
People should refer to voting for Gary Johnson as voting for a dangerous lunatic, and for voting for Jill Stein as voting for a pandering liar who has no ability to produce what she is selling.
Expecting a Libertarian to be reasonable makes as much sense as expecting the Pope to be reasonable.
Conservative/Libertarian attitudes played it's role in the economy tanking. And they continue to want to play Russian Roulette with the well-being of this country.
That's a terrible comparison; there are lots of times when one hit makes a huge difference. The problem is there's just no such thing as clutch voting.
As a state employee, I have a government-mandated day off. Which sounds nicer than it is-- all they did was switch a sensibly-scheduled off-day to one that could not come at a worse time of the semester. The plus side is I get to vote in the middle of the day, so hopefully dodge a long line.
Has anyone else used Google to help them find their polling place (mine was demolished between the primary and this election)? It's kind of awesome. They have directions to the polling place, and then a breakdown of the ballot race-by-race.
Gary Johnson's foreign policy is neither dangerous nor lunatic. His economic policy is crazy. As with any third party candidate in the US system, he (and Jill Stein) have the option of hewing more closely to utopian "what should be" claims than practical "what we can accomplish" because he knows he'll never win, and thus never have to keep the utopian promise.
I found that I needed 4 or 5 hits to make a huge difference. Then again, I hear the pot these days is 5-10x stronger than 30-40 years ago so maybe one hit is plenty any more.
So you want him to replace it with a failed 19th century ideology founded on MINEMINEMINEMINE!!!!!
True. And because it is fairly unlikely they get to work with a Libertarian Congress, there is zero chance of their enacting the policies unaltered.
But, by all means, choose which group of corporate shills gets our tax dollars.
See Hoffa, Jimmy.
First your excuse sucks.
Second:
• Vote411. Plug in your address and find out where your polling station is and information about your registration.
• An interactive map with hundreds of links to state-by-state election websites, including voter guides, provisional voting information and polling place hours and locations.
• 1-800-311-8683 Voter Help Line set up by the Democratic Party
• 1-866-MYVOTE1 (866-698-6831)
• 1-866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683)
• 1-888-VE-Y-VOTA (en Español)
Don't be ridiculous, arrogant selfishness is much older than the 19th century. It wouldn't even exist as an ideology anymore but Big Government won't allow decent folk to throw these mooching jerks over cliffs like they deserve.
Yeah, OK, I laughed.
Palm Beach County, 2000. That's the Derek ####### Jeter of clutch voting.
Regardless, the comparison isn't to clutch hitting, it's to *hitting.* Saying "you shouldn't vote because one vote is meaningless in a large statistical sample" is like saying "the results of Chipper Jones' last at bat is meaningless because it's just one hit in a 20 year career." Yes, in the aggregate, the single event isn't going to move the trend, but if there isn't an accumulation of individual events, THERE IS NO TREND.
It's like saying you don't need any bricks, because one brick will never build a wall.
We don't need no education!
This is my grumpy "begrudgingly acknowledged" look.
I used rivets/wings. Should have used bricks. Damn.
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