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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   2701. tshipman Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4294310)
Gary Johnson's foreign policy is neither dangerous nor lunatic.


True. He also has zero knowledge of foreign policy. If you're voting on FP, you should choose someone who has actual knowledge of it.

His economic policy is crazy. As with any third party candidate in the US system, he (and Jill Stein) have the option of hewing more closely to utopian "what should be" claims than practical "what we can accomplish" because he knows he'll never win, and thus never have to keep the utopian promise


Yes, which means he promises every voter a pony. I hate it because it's completely unrealistic and yet people don't discuss 3rd party candidates as complete frauds. They discuss them as principled and more desirable than people who actually propose governance.
   2702. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4294311)
Romney campaigning today in Ohio and PA.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/06/politics/romney-sidebar/index.html?hpt=hp_t2_6
   2703. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4294312)
I haven't made up my mind yet, but I think I'm going to write in Herman Cain.
   2704. formerly dp Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4294313)
I hate it because it's completely unrealistic and yet people don't discuss 3rd party candidates as complete frauds. They discuss them as principled and more desirable than people who actually propose governance.


This seems to drastically misrepresent/misunderstand the purpose of third party candidates.
   2705. formerly dp Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4294315)
I haven't made up my mind yet, but I think I'm going to write in Herman Cain.


Voted for him in the primary.

A vote for Herman Cain is a vote for Stephen Colbert.
   2706. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4294316)
Should have used bricks


Bricks double as weapons when the wall comes down. Think ahead. Be prepared.
   2707. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4294317)
I voted at my polling place in the West Village of Manhattan this morning. I was in a different polling place last time around so I can't compare the lines directly, but it was quite busy and chaotic and took me about 45 minutes to vote. It would have taken more than an hour if I was one of the people who didn't know which district they were in and had to wait in line to figure that out (there were about 10 districts at my polling place).

There were no hotly contested items on my ballot, and most of them were Democrats running unopposed. I don't vote in elections where I don't feel fully informed on the race so I still left a few of the uncontested down-ballot ones blank.
   2708. dlf Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4294318)
On my ballot, we have contested elections for President, two different seats on the Public Service Commission, and the House together with two constitutional amendments. We have uncontested elections for eleven other positions with no D having been nominated to fill any of the positions from Coroner (why is party affiliation relevant) to several judges, sheriff, etc.
   2709. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:24 AM (#4294319)
This is my grumpy "begrudgingly acknowledged" look.


Oh come on, grumpy? Anyway I am just happy I got there first. I maybe should have gone with the "Hey Sam, leave those kids alone" but I was in a hurry.
   2710. formerly dp Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4294320)
Bricks double as weapons when the wall comes down. Think ahead. Be prepared.


Yeah, but rivets=rivet gun ammo.
   2711. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4294322)
Coroner (why is party affiliation relevant)

Democrats are more likely to certify dead people as eligible to vote.
   2712. Portia Stanke Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4294323)
True. He also has zero knowledge of foreign policy. If you're voting on FP, you should choose someone who has actual knowledge of it.


When I think foreign policy expertise, my mind runs toward a one-term MA gov or a single-term senator who has ###### up everything he's touched on the international scene.
   2713. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4294324)
Coroner (why is party affiliation relevant)

Democrats are more likely to certify dead people as eligible to vote.


Republicans are more likely to not certify them as dead, so they don't have to pay an estate tax.
   2714. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4294326)
There were no hotly contested items on my ballot, and most of them were Democrats running unopposed. I don't vote in elections where I don't feel fully informed on the race so I still left a few of the uncontested down-ballot ones blank.


The ex never fails to send me information on every down ballot race - soil & water commissioner even. It has made me lazy as the ex and I share political views I admit I have outsourced my down ballot votes.

Off to vote soon. the joys of working near home and being able to duck out for a bit.
   2715. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4294327)
I maybe should have gone with the "Hey Sam, leave those kids alone"


By the way, which one's Pink?
   2716. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4294328)
single-term senator who has ###### up everything he's touched on the international scene.


Well, I can definitely think of one specific guy he ###### up real nice...
   2717. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4294329)
Late to this...

it's about the fact that no election in this country can ever be decided by one vote.


The town of Mt. Gilead, NC had its 2011 mayoral race end with one candidate winning by 2 votes, but either 2 supporters of the other candidate being improperly excluded from voting. They complained to the state board of elections, and the result was a year of litigation and a new election today. The old mayor had wanted to retire but was stuck serving another year, much to his chagrin.
   2718. JL Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:28 AM (#4294331)
Going by a very small sample size of one polling place (mine), there's going to be a heavy voter turnout this year. At a polling place where I've never had to wait (even in 2008), I was in line for over 30 minutes this morning. And, when I left, the line was just as long as it was when I got there.

Very long line for me (a very pro-Obama area in Northern Virginia). Got their at 6 am when the poll opened and finally voted at 7:10 am. The line was at least twice as long when I left as it was when I first got there, with a number of people joining the line.

On the plus side, Marvin the Martian is now on the board.
   2719. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:28 AM (#4294335)
I bet the guy running for Coroner would be the most stunned if he had competition.
   2720. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:29 AM (#4294337)
Why do you Americans have political party affiliations for things like sheriffs, judges, coroners, etc?

The mayors of our cities don't even have political party affiliations up here in Canada.
   2721. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4294338)
Why do you Americans have political party affiliations for things like sheriffs, judges, coroners, etc?


Because we're better than you frozen lot of fools, obviously.

USA! USA! USA!
   2722. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4294339)
Voting line not quite as long as 2008 - when it was a 2 hour wait - but pretty darn close (~90 minutes)... I did make a point of telling all my peeps in the office that the law requires they be allotted time to get to the polls and that if it meant coming in a couple hours late or leaving a couple hours early, they should take advantage of it.

First time at a new precinct in a GE -- did vote there in the primary -- and not an especially smooth ride. Part of this was because Chicago's precinct maps were redrawn, so there were a fair number of people going to the wrong place, but mostly because three precincts from the ward were in a single church basement that was not at all conducive to 3 separate lines. I did manage to get a parking ticket while voting, so next year - I demand a ballot initiative waiving parking regulations on election day...

As I usually do, upon completing my ballot - I did a Jeter fist pump and shouted "DEMOCRACY! YEAH!", which elicited the usual smattering of bleary eyed chuckles... as well as the ire of a GOP poll watcher who thought I said DEMOCRATS.

Actually voted for a couple of local Republicans - one I pseudo-know and another where I have an intense dislike for the Democratic incumbent (and still likely winner), but the votes were for local county and municipal offices. Likewise three Greens (straight-ticket Green party for Water Reclamation!)... but straight ticket Democratic at the federal level. I really wish there were an easier way to deal with the judge retention questions... Every voter I saw was using the same thing I used -- the ABA's retention recommendation list -- but it's still something like a gazillion closely smushed together lines that all have to be marked/colored in (Chicago's ballot uses arrows "<--- --->" where you have to color in the line.)

The only other happening of note was a little girl of about 5 or 6 who kept trying to electioneer inside the polling place, which sort of befuddled the election judges as to how to proceed. Since she was apparently trumpeting a Presidential candidate named "Mittrock Rombama" I was unsure as to whether to advocate for her arrest or not.
   2723. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:31 AM (#4294340)
I have no problem with third party candidates and folks should vote for them as they like. But they are not analogues for the major candidates and people should not pretend they are. Third party candidates (excluding a few) never have to concern themselves with actually governing in any sense. they don't have to deal with the real world of compromise and so can keep themselves "pure". Which is fine and all, but not how the real politicians govern.

Everything is always simple - ponies for everyone - until you actually are in charge. Third parties never hit this, they are ALWAYS Hope and Change.

   2724. dlf Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4294341)
I bet the guy running for Coroner would be the most stunned if he had competition.


She.

Where in GA are you planning your run for office? It looks like Cumming has some room on the ballot if you want to join us up here by the lake.
   2725. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4294342)
Because we're better than you frozen lot of fools, obviously.

USA! USA! USA!


Well, we do have a conservative government right now, so I can't argue with that.
   2726. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4294344)
I bet the guy running for Coroner would be the most stunned if he had competition.

Not if it was stiff competition.
   2727. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4294345)
If it means a legitimate, registered voter actually been refused the right to cast a ballot, it hasn't occurred in a long time and won't occur today.

Right, someone who can't afford to wait 7 hours in line doesn't deserve to vote, and their leaving doesn't mean that they were denied the chance to vote! Lazy slacker poors.
You're choosing someone who is going to preside over a $4 trillion budget, who's going to be controlling 20% of the nation's wealth and throw 3 million people in jail, and you think that investing a few hours in this process is somehow too much to ask? Depending on who they vote for, it's going to cost people a lot more than a few hours' worth of their wages.
   2728. The Good Face Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4294346)
Regardless, the comparison isn't to clutch hitting, it's to *hitting.* Saying "you shouldn't vote because one vote is meaningless in a large statistical sample" is like saying "the results of Chipper Jones' last at bat is meaningless because it's just one hit in a 20 year career." Yes, in the aggregate, the single event isn't going to move the trend, but if there isn't an accumulation of individual events, THERE IS NO TREND.


Hitting is still a lousy comparison. All hits aren't equally valuable, even in the same game. All votes within a given geographic district are equally valuable though.

Voting should be made more interesting by adding leverage factors or randomized elements depending on game state; qualifying voters could get extra votes, or perhaps the right to prevent other people from voting.
   2729. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4294347)
This is the longest I've ever waited to vote. I was in there about an hour; the school gym on 122nd Street in Harlem was crowded, with lines to check in, lines to fill out your ballot, and lines to insert your ballot in the machine. I would've been in there longer but I accidentally cut in line because there was confusion over where the line began and ended. There were two lines to get into one line and once we realized there were two, all the people kind of smushed together into one line and I ended up in a favorable position.

I voted in Brooklyn the last two elections. The last time there was only a few people ahead of me. In 2004, none at all. I walked past three more voting places on my way to work, and the lines went outside in each case.
   2730. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:39 AM (#4294349)
Voting should be made more interesting by adding leverage factors or randomized elements depending on game state; qualifying voters could get extra votes, or perhaps the right to prevent other people from voting.


Democracy would be better if it were modeled on Survivor?
   2731. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4294350)
Gary Johnson's foreign policy is neither dangerous nor lunatic.

In fact it's far saner than either party so much as contemplates


His economic policy is crazy.

Yes, yes it is, but he's not gonna win...
   2732. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4294351)
You're choosing someone who is going to preside over a $4 trillion budget, who's going to be controlling 20% of the nation's wealth and throw 3 million people in jail, and you think that investing a few hours in this process is somehow too much to ask? Depending on who they vote for, it's going to cost people a lot more than a few hours' worth of their wages.


We all know your defense of liberty ends with anyone who isn't of your tribe, David. It's been clear for a few years now.
   2733. zack Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4294352)
I have no problem with third party candidates and folks should vote for them as they like. But they are not analogues for the major candidates and people should not pretend they are. Third party candidates (excluding a few) never have to concern themselves with actually governing in any sense. they don't have to deal with the real world of compromise and so can keep themselves "pure". Which is fine and all, but not how the real politicians govern.


The only purpose of third parties in modern US elections is to try and draw the major parties to the right or left, but I doubt they've even accomplished that anytime in the last 30 years. It is fun voting for major party candidates through minor parties if you vote in NY though. There used to be a movement to vote green so they'd get campaign funding, is that still a thing?

Well, there is one other purpose for 3rd parties: I voted two whole weeks ago, and it was a straight DC Statehood ticket (other than President), because DC local politics are bad and should feel bad.
   2734. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4294354)
I voted in Chicago this morning. It was the most annoying ####### ballot I've ever voted on. It came on two long card stock sheets, one with two sides. The first sheet had some ballot questions (1 state constitutional amendment and three various non-binding things). The text was printed in English, Spanish, and Chinese, and had the full text of various propositions, meaning it was a huge piece of paper covered in text with a small number of things to actually vote on. I'm not at all sure that I didn't miss something. Side one of the second sheet had the general races, all of which were Democrats running unopposed or Democrats who will get 65% or more of the vote. Then there were the judicial questions. One is an actual race for a state supreme court position, then questions on whether or not other judges should be retained. There are (I think) 60 judges on the ballot. A couple of local lawyers' groups have made recommendations and I had a few I voted to not retain, but it's annoying as #### to go through the extremely long list of people I know nothing about looking for a few names -- and was it Judge Flanagan or Judge Flannigan that I wanted to vote against? Then you rotely fill in the line on the other 55 names, but the pen is skinny so you have to color in the bar, not just make a quick dash. It's an absurd system.

The whole ballot was absurd. It was a list of foregone conclusions coupled with a vast flood of people that you can't expect a normal citizen to know anything about. I voted, but it was completely stupid.
   2735. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4294357)
The only purpose of third parties in modern US elections is to try and draw the major parties to the right or left, but I doubt they've even accomplished that anytime in the last 30 years.

Because the two major parties have done a good job of convincing the electorate that voting for third parties is a waste.
   2736. Manny Coon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4294358)
People should refer to voting for Gary Johnson as voting for a dangerous lunatic


I think part of Johnson's appeal compared to some previous Libertarian candidates is that he's obviously not a lunatic. His success and popularity in New Mexico makes gives him a much stronger track record than most guys the Libertarian party have run for major office recently and during his time there he showed he can pragmatically work with established Republicans/Democrats and not just try to impose some kind of pure ideology.
   2737. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4294360)
So you want him to replace it with a failed 19th century ideology founded on MINEMINEMINEMINE!!!!!
1) Libertarianism is more of a 17th century philosophy.
2) Socialism is the ideology founded on MINEMINEMINEMINE!!! It's just that the phrase doesn't actually refer to things that actually do belong to the speaker.
   2738. The Good Face Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4294361)
Democracy would be better if it were modeled on Survivor?


Let's vote on it.

   2739. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4294362)
Yes, which means he promises every voter a pony. I hate it because it's completely unrealistic and yet people don't discuss 3rd party candidates as complete frauds. They discuss them as principled and more desirable than people who actually propose governance.
Actually, he promises that if you earn your own pony, he won't take it away from you. You're a little confused about libertarianism.
   2740. tshipman Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4294363)
When I think foreign policy expertise, my mind runs toward a one-term MA gov or a single-term senator who has ###### up everything he's touched on the international scene.


I literally do not understand the mindset that believes that Obama has not had very effective and sane foreign policy. The only way I get there is if I treat the drone policy as being "foreign policy."
   2741. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4294364)
Where in GA are you planning your run for office? It looks like Cumming has some room on the ballot if you want to join us up here by the lake.


Right now I live in Dunwoody (just, don't ask. Please.) but next year I'll be living in the Druid Hills or Decatur area. Although the thought of a campaign slogan involving Cumming is pretty tempting. (Side note, best team trivia name I've heard in a while: "Just call me Alpharetta 'cause I'm five minutes from Cumming.")
   2742. Spahn Insane Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4294365)
Dick Morris called it 325-213 for Romney.

OK--he hedged his original prediction substantially, then. (Yeah, I saw the Cramer prediction that mirrored the 440-98.)
   2743. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4294366)
Because the two major parties have done a good job of convincing the electorate that voting for third parties is a waste.


Actually, it's more of a structural thing. US institutions aren't designed to facilitate third/minor party impacts.
   2744. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4294367)
Well, I can definitely think of one specific guy he ###### up real nice...
Yes, Anwar al-Awlaki, but I'm not sure why you're bragging about his assassination program.
   2745. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4294368)
Not if it was stiff competition.


*slow clap*
   2746. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4294371)
We all know your defense of liberty ends with anyone who isn't of your tribe, David. It's been clear for a few years now.
No, I don't think you goyim ought to have your property confiscated either.
   2747. zack Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4294372)
Actually, it's more of a structural thing. US institutions aren't designed to facilitate third/minor party impacts.


Yes, it's a direct function of an antique electoral system. I can't blame the Founding F's, it was a new deal back then, but that doesn't mean we have to stick with it forever.

Unfortunately the only people who can change it are entrenched in power because of it.
   2748. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4294373)
Not voting and counting on others to make the decision for you is the ultimate form of free riding.
   2749. Spahn Insane Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:55 AM (#4294374)
The whole ballot was absurd. It was a list of foregone conclusions coupled with a vast flood of people that you can't expect a normal citizen to know anything about. I voted, but it was completely stupid.

I'm in Chicago as well. Since I don't pay attention to judge's "races" (scarequoted because they're expressly labeled votes "to retain;" they don't have actual opponents), I don't vote in them. I figure that way, if (when?) one or more of 'em gets snagged in some scandal, at least I won't have perpetuated their corrupt judgeship.

That, and it just takes too damn long. (And I'm always uncomfortable voting for unopposed candidates for some reason, even if I like them.)
   2750. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4294376)

I'm in Chicago as well. Since I don't pay attention to judge's "races" (scarequoted because they're expressly labeled votes "to retain"), I don't vote in them. I figure that way, if (when?) one or more of 'em gets snagged in some scandal, at least I won't have perpetuated their corrupt judgeship.


The ABA's retention recommendations are perfectly fine to use, I think -- the list I use actually has multiple association subgroups as well, and they generally come out in agreement... of the 60 or so judges up for retention, I think 5 got "not recommended", and a quick googling of them seems to confirm that at least a couple of those calls are good ones.

   2751. Moloka'i Three-Finger Brown (Declino DeShields) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4294378)
Socialism is the ideology founded on MINEMINEMINEMINE!!!


In the socialists' defense, they apparently insist on only three exclamation points, compared to libertarians' five (according to the post you quoted in 2737). So there is a difference.
   2752. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4294379)
Not voting and counting on others to make the decision for you is the ultimate form of free riding.

Woohoo! Something finally outpaces my libertine childlessness!
   2753. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4294381)
Not voting and counting on others to make the decision for you is the ultimate form of free riding.


I don’t disagree with this sentiment, but it certainly ain't free.
   2754. tshipman Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4294382)
Because the two major parties have done a good job of convincing the electorate that voting for third parties is a waste.


As Sam notes, this has more to do with First Past the Post. You can see this in local governments where they allow things like ranked choice and other voting systems--there's a lot more candidates to choose from.

Actually, he promises that if you earn your own pony, he won't take it away from you. You're a little confused about libertarianism.


I guess I have never understood this point of view. It must be convenient to believe that you live in a vacuum, completely independent from all you pass by.
   2755. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:05 PM (#4294383)
Not voting and counting on others to make the decision for you is the ultimate form of free riding.


Let me know when you've got anything more than self-satisfaction and tautologies on your side, guys.

I vote. But I'm not deluded about what it's for.
   2756. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4294384)
Actually, it's more of a structural thing. US institutions aren't designed to facilitate third/minor party impacts.

Yes, it's a direct function of an antique electoral system. I can't blame the Founding F's, it was a new deal back then, but that doesn't mean we have to stick with it forever.

Unfortunately the only people who can change it are entrenched in power because of it.
The first-past-the-post system does work against third parties, but there are also structural impediments to third parties that are independent of FPTP, put in place by the two main parties simply to advantage themselves at the expense of competition. Like ballot access rules, for instance. (Many third parties have to spend most of their resources just to get on the ballot, while the two main parties are on automatically.) A good reason to vote for Stein (if you're a communist) or Johnson (if you're a freedom lover) is simply to get them up to the magic percentage in a given state to get permanent ballot access for their party. Then they can use their resources promoting their agendas. Or debate participation. The Democrats and Republicans hijacked the debates (I'm not saying they did anything illegal -- just sleazy) and conspired to make sure they wouldn't have to share the stage with third parties. Or campaign finance laws.
   2757. JL Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:07 PM (#4294387)
Very long line for me (a very pro-Obama area in Northern Virginia). Got their at 6 am when the poll opened and finally voted at 7:10 am. The line was at least twice as long when I left as it was when I first got there, with a number of people joining the line.

My wife just called to let me know it took her about 90 minutes. The line has gone down a bit since she voted. For what very little it is worth, we both agree that these levels are similar to what we saw in 2008.
   2758. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4294390)
FWIW, here's a link to all the AABA's Chicago ballot retention recs... You can enlarge the grids and they look just fine on a smartphone.
   2759. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:13 PM (#4294391)
BTW -- since everyone else is reporting it -- there were (as always) no lines in our precinct. (A very Democratic one.) For the first time, I voted in the AM rather than after work (transit is so screwed up post-Sandy that I wasn't sure I'd make it home before the polls closed), and it wasn't any different.
   2760. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:13 PM (#4294392)
I guess I have never understood this point of view. It must be convenient to believe that you live in a vacuum, completely independent from all you pass by.


No libertarian believes that. Nor would most or all of them want to live in a vacuum. What they want is to be free to associate with people and institutions of their choice, rather than be roped into a phony "we're all in this together" collective run by government.

   2761. villageidiom Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4294393)
If you think your vote makes a difference then you are truly dumb.
The biggest sign of superior intelligence is the eagerness to cede all authority for important collective decisions to the truly dumb.
   2762. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4294396)
Random little tidbit:


Political science research has confirmed what strategists have long known intuitively -- weather on election day matters, at least on the margins. One study found that for every inch of rain, voter turndown goes down about 1 percent, and that that helps Republicans. An inch of snow depresses turnout by about a half a percent.

Overall, it looks like a clear day in most of the swing states. Naturally, one of the only two swing states with an issue is Florida, which will have sporadic thunderstorms and some heavy rain through the middle and northern parts of the state, and especially in the politically crucial I-4 corridor around Tampa. Florida is supposed to be extremely close, so marginal changes could conceivably matter. The other state with weather today is Wisconsin, which should see rain and snow.
   2763. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4294400)
BTW -- since everyone else is reporting it -- there were (as always) no lines in our precinct. (A very Democratic one.) For the first time, I voted in the AM rather than after work (transit is so...


Socialist.
   2764. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4294401)
The political discussions have started where I work. One older woman's all-in on Benghazi as the reason why Obama's "insane". Romney's pretty popular up here and he's where most everyone wants their vote going where I'm working at the moment.
   2765. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4294403)
My voting location was busy, but flowing. So I've got plenty of time go vote a few more times.

On the way home I saw a yard sign for one of the 13 uncontested candidates.
   2766. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4294405)
1) Libertarianism is more of a 17th century philosophy.
2) Socialism is the ideology founded on MINEMINEMINEMINE!!! It's just that the phrase doesn't actually refer to things that actually do belong to the speaker.


1: Libertarianism as everyone outside of the US knows it is more of a 17th century philosophy
2: Libertarianism as espoused by self-proclaimed Libertarians in the US is most definitely a 19th century philosophy
3: Most of our "isms" are founded on MINEMINEMINEMINE- it's just that American Libertarianism of the type you espouse is more tightly enwrapped in it.

   2767. Swoboda is freedom Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4294407)
I voted this morning. Got there before 7 in Westchester, NY and was out in 3 minutes. Thought about voting for Johnson, just as a protest vote as NY is so deep blue, but didn't as I figured the total count should be important.

I have voted every time I was eligible except in 1996, as I didn't get my absentee ballot in time. I was living in London and didn't realize how early you need to request it.
   2768. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:26 PM (#4294410)
No libertarian believes that. Nor would most or all of them want to live in a vacuum. What they want is to be free to associate with people and institutions of their choice, rather than be roped into a phony "we're all in this together" collective run by government.


Back in college when most of the people I hung out with were libertarians I kind of understood this Libertarian point of view. Now, I look at it and think it must be convenient to believe that you live in a vacuum, completely independent from all you pass by.
   2769. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4294411)
In Fairfax County, Virginia, I'm in a very long line, snaking down a hall and looping back to get into the school gym. Used to always vote on the way in to work, but now that I retired thought there'd be a shorter line mid-morning. Might be two hours.
   2770. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4294412)
Took me 80 minutes to vote and the polling station wasn't really setup all that well or manned well either. Crammed the entire thing into this little room where everyone was bumping into one another. At about 10:15 the scanner read 515 ballots submitted and I would guess the one electronic voting machine had 100 to 200 ballots cast as well.
   2771. GregD Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4294413)
1 hour 40 mins at Upper West Side. Chaotic scene since lines were all snaking through each other but people were calm.


3, 4 and 5. Generals David Petraeus, George C. Marshall and William Tecumseh Sherman

Though he is registered as a Republican, General Petraeus stopped voting in 2002, when he became a two-star general “to avoid being pulled in one direction or another, to be in a sense used by one side or the other.” His voter abstinence follows a long military trend of non-voting generals, which includes both Marshall and Sherman. General Marshall famously disagreed with President Truman’s plan to recognize the state of Israel, saying, “If I were to vote in the election, I would vote against you.”


I have grave doubts that this is true of Sherman. The part about not accepting a nomination, okay, but not voting? His brother was a longtime US Senator, his (essentially but not I don't think legally) stepfather was also a US Senator (both brother and stepfather were also Secty of Treasury), his stepbrother was a congressman, his stepbrother's law partner was a US Senator. He was from one of the most political extended families of era and was himself, despite his reputation, constantly pulling political strings (though he preferred to do so through his siblings from afar and disliked the times he was based in Washington DC.) Sherman literally grew up going to party caucuses as a big part of his childhood. I believe he stopped voting at some point, at least for pres, but not that he never voted.
   2772. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4294414)
Back in college when most of the people I hung out with were libertarians I kind of understood this Libertarian point of view. Now, I look at it and think it must be convenient to believe that you live in a vacuum, completely independent from all you pass by.
Are you just using a macro here? It's one thing to repeat talking points; it's another to repeat them in response to someone who just refuted them last time you posted.

Libertarians don't believe we live in a vacuum. We just don't believe in the philosophy that insists "You don't live in a vacuum, and I'm going to stick a gun in your face to prove it."
   2773. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4294417)
Whoops.

ST. PETERSBURG – An hour after polls opened today, the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections Office mistakenly placed hundreds – possibly thousands – of automatic calls to voters instructing them that they had until 7 p.m. tomorrow to vote.
   2774. Kurt Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4294418)
At my polling place (DC), there were four lines to sign in - one for last names that start with A-C, one for D-H, one for I-M...and one for N-Z. The A-C line was non-existent, D-H had 2 or 3 people, I-M had about ten, and N-Z stretched all the way to the back of the gym.

It worked out fine for me as a D-H, but did it really not occur to anybody to divide things up a bit more evenly?
   2775. Jim Wisinski Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4294419)
FWIW, here's a link to all the AABA's Chicago ballot retention recs


I initially read that as ABBA's retention recs.

I dropped off my absentee ballot days ago so I'm already good to go on voting. I only voted for the three federal races since I don't know jack #### about any of the other races, as well as voting against every constitutional amendment.
   2776. BrianBrianson Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:32 PM (#4294420)
If you think your vote makes a difference then you are truly dumb.


Controlling for each of the other two, the rich are more likely to vote than the poor, the smart are more likely to vote than the dumb, and the educated are more likely to vote than the uneducated. It's a much stronger signal than pondering it in isolation.
   2777. Ron J2 Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4294424)
He could have quoted Mo Udall: "The voters have spoken...the bastards."


A few years back the Canadian election split into several regional blocks.

A friend of mine summed it up by saying.

The Atlantic provinces say, "We want the NDP"
Quebec says, "We want the Bloc"
The West says, "We want Reform"

And Ontario says, "You get the Liberals"

   2778. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4294425)
I initially read that as ABBA's retention recs.
Take a chance on them.
   2779. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4294426)
The mayors of our cities don't even have political party affiliations up here in Canada

All city elections here in Arlington TX, and most of the surrounding communities (including Ft Worth), are non-partisan. The roots of this system are far back in Reconstruction times, when partisan elections had murderous contexts, and added to that is a general feeling that partisanship in local politics is indecorous even when it's peaceful. As a practical matter, virtually every local official in my vicinity is a Republican, so local elections are contested wholly among Republicans (which is why I'm a registered Republican, so I can vote in the primaries). In fact it can be astonishing when a local politician moves up to run for state office and you suddenly discover that they're a Democrat.
   2780. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4294428)
On the way home I saw a yard sign for one of the 13 uncontested candidates.


It's nice that his mother loves him.
   2781. Ron J2 Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4294429)
Wallace giving his VP slot to Curtis LeMay remains inexplicable.


Courting the crazy turned out not to work very well. They don't vote as a clock (and probably have low turnout in any case)

   2782. The Good Face Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4294430)
Back in college when most of the people I hung out with were libertarians I kind of understood this Libertarian point of view. Now, I look at it and think it must be convenient to believe that you live in a vacuum, completely independent from all you pass by.


Congrats on understanding less than you did in college?
   2783. zenbitz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4294431)
There is A 93.1% chance I voted. I filled out and signed a ballot but lovely wife still has to drop it off. It's absentee so might not get counted anywAY. Odds are good becAUSE there are 3 seperate items thaT effect city college funding where she works.

I didn't vote for school bored or bart director. Or dianne feinstein. But I thought of David and Ray voted for Pelosi. Even though shes an idiot.

P
   2784. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4294432)
At my polling place (DC), there were four lines to sign in - one for last names that start with A-C, one for D-H, one for I-M...and one for N-Z. The A-C line was non-existent, D-H had 2 or 3 people, I-M had about ten, and N-Z stretched all the way to the back of the gym.

It worked out fine for me as a D-H, but did it really not occur to anybody to divide things up a bit more evenly?


Same thing happened to me as well. But for me the two big lines were L-R (the biggest) and S-Z being the most populated while the A line wasn't populated at all. Seemed a really stupid way of doing it and it took the staff about 3 hours to realize that the worker up front was sending all the L-Z people into one big line until they got up to the polling area.
   2785. Kurt Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4294433)
Nothing but elected positions on my ballot and DC goes something like 60-80% Democrat every single time.

McCoy, there were three ballot initiatives on the back of your ballot (as well as DC Council chair) - I hope you didn't forget to turn it over.
   2786. OCF Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4294435)
I just got sent a link to an article in the Chronicle of Higher Education in which, among other things, Sam Wang offers to eat a "really big bug" if Romney carries Ohio. Of course, all along, Sam Wang has thought that Nate Silver was being too cautious.
   2787. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4294437)
On the way home I saw a yard sign for one of the 13 uncontested candidates.

There was only one race in DC that was uncontested. I think it was a school board position. I wrote in one of my friend's name on the ballot.
   2788. Steve Treder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4294438)
They don't vote as a clock

I'm pretty sure only the Swiss do that.
   2789. JL Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4294441)
One interesting twist I had this year was the ability to choose how I voted. Most people chose electronic balloting, but I chose paper because the line was smaller. The people in front of me were semi-paranoid about electronic errors not getting caught in a recount so they chose paper as well. In 2008, I could only vote electronically.
   2790. Swoboda is freedom Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4294442)
Wallace giving his VP slot to Curtis LeMay remains inexplicable.

Maybe Wallace felt that LeMay could carpet bomb all the Northern/Liberal cities and he would win.
   2791. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4294443)
McCoy, there were three ballot initiatives on the back of your ballot (as well as DC Council chair) - I hope you didn't forget to turn it over.

I don't think those initiatives are going to be close at all.
   2792. Steve Treder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4294445)
Maybe Wallace felt that LeMay could carpet bomb all the Northern/Liberal cities and he would win.

"Any day now, sir, the tide's going to turn for us. Any day now. It's going to happen soon. Just a few more sorties. Any day now, sir."
   2793. Kurt Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4294446)
I don't think those initiatives are going to be close at all.

Which way? I haven't been following polling on them (I voted no on all three).
   2794. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4294448)
I voted. Took about 30 minutes. I thougght it would be faster mid morning, but no problems. Minnesota runs pretty good elections generally. I have a terrible memory for such things, so I have no idea if it was faster or slower in 2008.

Libertarians don't believe they live in a vacuum. They do believe that everything is zero sum, so taking their money (by force) and spending it on stuff is no better (and in fact mostly worse) than having their money. I strongly believe government (and the social contract) is not zero sum (and that the transaction cost of all those silly Libertarian contracts would be really high), but of course I am not a Libertarian.
   2795. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4294449)
I dreamt last night that I was watching election returns and Romney had been called the winner because he'd won West Virginia and Tennessee. I actually woke up and had to remind myself that of course he's going to take West Virginia and Tennessee. Sheesh.
   2796. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4294450)
Why have we not heard a peep from our fellow vote-suppression liberals about how many people in the Hurricane Sandy states will have a tough time voting today if they are able to vote at all? Is it because these people are in solidly blue states? If they were in swing states, would our fellow liberals be whining that so many people realistically may not be able to vote today?
   2797. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:49 PM (#4294452)
Why have we not heard a peep from our fellow vote-suppression liberals about how many people in the Hurricane Sandy states will have a tough time voting today if they are able to vote at all?


Probably because it's already been talked about. And also that voter suppression and Sandy effected voting is not the same thing.
   2798. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:49 PM (#4294453)
They do believe that everything is zero sum, so taking their money (by force) and spending it on stuff is no better (and in fact mostly worse) than having their money.
We most certainly do not believe that everything is zero sum. Indeed, our discussion about "income inequality," for instance, often points out that the world is not zero sum, such that the fact that Bill Gates makes a lot of money does not take anything from the rest of us.

Now, government redistribution is zero sum -- well, negative sum actually, because of deadweight losses.
   2799. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4294454)
"Syndee". It take an awful lot of self-confidence to run for office with a stripper name like that.

Or actress.


I see Misirlou's golden era for porn was late 90s/early 00s. Only a person who was intimately familiar with the era would be aware of Sydnee Steele.
   2800. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4294455)
They do believe that everything is zero sum, so taking their money (by force) and spending it on stuff is no better (and in fact mostly worse) than having their money.

They don't believe that, either. Voluntary associations and voluntary contracts, commercial and otherwise, are the polar opposite of "zero sum."
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