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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
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True. He also has zero knowledge of foreign policy. If you're voting on FP, you should choose someone who has actual knowledge of it.
Yes, which means he promises every voter a pony. I hate it because it's completely unrealistic and yet people don't discuss 3rd party candidates as complete frauds. They discuss them as principled and more desirable than people who actually propose governance.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/06/politics/romney-sidebar/index.html?hpt=hp_t2_6
This seems to drastically misrepresent/misunderstand the purpose of third party candidates.
Voted for him in the primary.
A vote for Herman Cain is a vote for Stephen Colbert.
Bricks double as weapons when the wall comes down. Think ahead. Be prepared.
There were no hotly contested items on my ballot, and most of them were Democrats running unopposed. I don't vote in elections where I don't feel fully informed on the race so I still left a few of the uncontested down-ballot ones blank.
Oh come on, grumpy? Anyway I am just happy I got there first. I maybe should have gone with the "Hey Sam, leave those kids alone" but I was in a hurry.
Yeah, but rivets=rivet gun ammo.
Democrats are more likely to certify dead people as eligible to vote.
When I think foreign policy expertise, my mind runs toward a one-term MA gov or a single-term senator who has ###### up everything he's touched on the international scene.
Republicans are more likely to not certify them as dead, so they don't have to pay an estate tax.
The ex never fails to send me information on every down ballot race - soil & water commissioner even. It has made me lazy as the ex and I share political views I admit I have outsourced my down ballot votes.
Off to vote soon. the joys of working near home and being able to duck out for a bit.
By the way, which one's Pink?
Well, I can definitely think of one specific guy he ###### up real nice...
The town of Mt. Gilead, NC had its 2011 mayoral race end with one candidate winning by 2 votes, but either 2 supporters of the other candidate being improperly excluded from voting. They complained to the state board of elections, and the result was a year of litigation and a new election today. The old mayor had wanted to retire but was stuck serving another year, much to his chagrin.
Very long line for me (a very pro-Obama area in Northern Virginia). Got their at 6 am when the poll opened and finally voted at 7:10 am. The line was at least twice as long when I left as it was when I first got there, with a number of people joining the line.
On the plus side, Marvin the Martian is now on the board.
The mayors of our cities don't even have political party affiliations up here in Canada.
Because we're better than you frozen lot of fools, obviously.
USA! USA! USA!
First time at a new precinct in a GE -- did vote there in the primary -- and not an especially smooth ride. Part of this was because Chicago's precinct maps were redrawn, so there were a fair number of people going to the wrong place, but mostly because three precincts from the ward were in a single church basement that was not at all conducive to 3 separate lines. I did manage to get a parking ticket while voting, so next year - I demand a ballot initiative waiving parking regulations on election day...
As I usually do, upon completing my ballot - I did a Jeter fist pump and shouted "DEMOCRACY! YEAH!", which elicited the usual smattering of bleary eyed chuckles... as well as the ire of a GOP poll watcher who thought I said DEMOCRATS.
Actually voted for a couple of local Republicans - one I pseudo-know and another where I have an intense dislike for the Democratic incumbent (and still likely winner), but the votes were for local county and municipal offices. Likewise three Greens (straight-ticket Green party for Water Reclamation!)... but straight ticket Democratic at the federal level. I really wish there were an easier way to deal with the judge retention questions... Every voter I saw was using the same thing I used -- the ABA's retention recommendation list -- but it's still something like a gazillion closely smushed together lines that all have to be marked/colored in (Chicago's ballot uses arrows "<--- --->" where you have to color in the line.)
The only other happening of note was a little girl of about 5 or 6 who kept trying to electioneer inside the polling place, which sort of befuddled the election judges as to how to proceed. Since she was apparently trumpeting a Presidential candidate named "Mittrock Rombama" I was unsure as to whether to advocate for her arrest or not.
Everything is always simple - ponies for everyone - until you actually are in charge. Third parties never hit this, they are ALWAYS Hope and Change.
She.
Where in GA are you planning your run for office? It looks like Cumming has some room on the ballot if you want to join us up here by the lake.
Well, we do have a conservative government right now, so I can't argue with that.
Not if it was stiff competition.
Hitting is still a lousy comparison. All hits aren't equally valuable, even in the same game. All votes within a given geographic district are equally valuable though.
Voting should be made more interesting by adding leverage factors or randomized elements depending on game state; qualifying voters could get extra votes, or perhaps the right to prevent other people from voting.
I voted in Brooklyn the last two elections. The last time there was only a few people ahead of me. In 2004, none at all. I walked past three more voting places on my way to work, and the lines went outside in each case.
Democracy would be better if it were modeled on Survivor?
In fact it's far saner than either party so much as contemplates
Yes, yes it is, but he's not gonna win...
We all know your defense of liberty ends with anyone who isn't of your tribe, David. It's been clear for a few years now.
The only purpose of third parties in modern US elections is to try and draw the major parties to the right or left, but I doubt they've even accomplished that anytime in the last 30 years. It is fun voting for major party candidates through minor parties if you vote in NY though. There used to be a movement to vote green so they'd get campaign funding, is that still a thing?
Well, there is one other purpose for 3rd parties: I voted two whole weeks ago, and it was a straight DC Statehood ticket (other than President), because DC local politics are bad and should feel bad.
The whole ballot was absurd. It was a list of foregone conclusions coupled with a vast flood of people that you can't expect a normal citizen to know anything about. I voted, but it was completely stupid.
Because the two major parties have done a good job of convincing the electorate that voting for third parties is a waste.
I think part of Johnson's appeal compared to some previous Libertarian candidates is that he's obviously not a lunatic. His success and popularity in New Mexico makes gives him a much stronger track record than most guys the Libertarian party have run for major office recently and during his time there he showed he can pragmatically work with established Republicans/Democrats and not just try to impose some kind of pure ideology.
2) Socialism is the ideology founded on MINEMINEMINEMINE!!! It's just that the phrase doesn't actually refer to things that actually do belong to the speaker.
Let's vote on it.
I literally do not understand the mindset that believes that Obama has not had very effective and sane foreign policy. The only way I get there is if I treat the drone policy as being "foreign policy."
Right now I live in Dunwoody (just, don't ask. Please.) but next year I'll be living in the Druid Hills or Decatur area. Although the thought of a campaign slogan involving Cumming is pretty tempting. (Side note, best team trivia name I've heard in a while: "Just call me Alpharetta 'cause I'm five minutes from Cumming.")
OK--he hedged his original prediction substantially, then. (Yeah, I saw the Cramer prediction that mirrored the 440-98.)
Actually, it's more of a structural thing. US institutions aren't designed to facilitate third/minor party impacts.
*slow clap*
Yes, it's a direct function of an antique electoral system. I can't blame the Founding F's, it was a new deal back then, but that doesn't mean we have to stick with it forever.
Unfortunately the only people who can change it are entrenched in power because of it.
I'm in Chicago as well. Since I don't pay attention to judge's "races" (scarequoted because they're expressly labeled votes "to retain;" they don't have actual opponents), I don't vote in them. I figure that way, if (when?) one or more of 'em gets snagged in some scandal, at least I won't have perpetuated their corrupt judgeship.
That, and it just takes too damn long. (And I'm always uncomfortable voting for unopposed candidates for some reason, even if I like them.)
The ABA's retention recommendations are perfectly fine to use, I think -- the list I use actually has multiple association subgroups as well, and they generally come out in agreement... of the 60 or so judges up for retention, I think 5 got "not recommended", and a quick googling of them seems to confirm that at least a couple of those calls are good ones.
In the socialists' defense, they apparently insist on only three exclamation points, compared to libertarians' five (according to the post you quoted in 2737). So there is a difference.
Woohoo! Something finally outpaces my libertine childlessness!
I don’t disagree with this sentiment, but it certainly ain't free.
As Sam notes, this has more to do with First Past the Post. You can see this in local governments where they allow things like ranked choice and other voting systems--there's a lot more candidates to choose from.
I guess I have never understood this point of view. It must be convenient to believe that you live in a vacuum, completely independent from all you pass by.
Let me know when you've got anything more than self-satisfaction and tautologies on your side, guys.
I vote. But I'm not deluded about what it's for.
My wife just called to let me know it took her about 90 minutes. The line has gone down a bit since she voted. For what very little it is worth, we both agree that these levels are similar to what we saw in 2008.
No libertarian believes that. Nor would most or all of them want to live in a vacuum. What they want is to be free to associate with people and institutions of their choice, rather than be roped into a phony "we're all in this together" collective run by government.
Socialist.
On the way home I saw a yard sign for one of the 13 uncontested candidates.
1: Libertarianism as everyone outside of the US knows it is more of a 17th century philosophy
2: Libertarianism as espoused by self-proclaimed Libertarians in the US is most definitely a 19th century philosophy
3: Most of our "isms" are founded on MINEMINEMINEMINE- it's just that American Libertarianism of the type you espouse is more tightly enwrapped in it.
I have voted every time I was eligible except in 1996, as I didn't get my absentee ballot in time. I was living in London and didn't realize how early you need to request it.
Back in college when most of the people I hung out with were libertarians I kind of understood this Libertarian point of view. Now, I look at it and think it must be convenient to believe that you live in a vacuum, completely independent from all you pass by.
I have grave doubts that this is true of Sherman. The part about not accepting a nomination, okay, but not voting? His brother was a longtime US Senator, his (essentially but not I don't think legally) stepfather was also a US Senator (both brother and stepfather were also Secty of Treasury), his stepbrother was a congressman, his stepbrother's law partner was a US Senator. He was from one of the most political extended families of era and was himself, despite his reputation, constantly pulling political strings (though he preferred to do so through his siblings from afar and disliked the times he was based in Washington DC.) Sherman literally grew up going to party caucuses as a big part of his childhood. I believe he stopped voting at some point, at least for pres, but not that he never voted.
Libertarians don't believe we live in a vacuum. We just don't believe in the philosophy that insists "You don't live in a vacuum, and I'm going to stick a gun in your face to prove it."
It worked out fine for me as a D-H, but did it really not occur to anybody to divide things up a bit more evenly?
I initially read that as ABBA's retention recs.
I dropped off my absentee ballot days ago so I'm already good to go on voting. I only voted for the three federal races since I don't know jack #### about any of the other races, as well as voting against every constitutional amendment.
Controlling for each of the other two, the rich are more likely to vote than the poor, the smart are more likely to vote than the dumb, and the educated are more likely to vote than the uneducated. It's a much stronger signal than pondering it in isolation.
A few years back the Canadian election split into several regional blocks.
A friend of mine summed it up by saying.
The Atlantic provinces say, "We want the NDP"
Quebec says, "We want the Bloc"
The West says, "We want Reform"
And Ontario says, "You get the Liberals"
All city elections here in Arlington TX, and most of the surrounding communities (including Ft Worth), are non-partisan. The roots of this system are far back in Reconstruction times, when partisan elections had murderous contexts, and added to that is a general feeling that partisanship in local politics is indecorous even when it's peaceful. As a practical matter, virtually every local official in my vicinity is a Republican, so local elections are contested wholly among Republicans (which is why I'm a registered Republican, so I can vote in the primaries). In fact it can be astonishing when a local politician moves up to run for state office and you suddenly discover that they're a Democrat.
It's nice that his mother loves him.
Courting the crazy turned out not to work very well. They don't vote as a clock (and probably have low turnout in any case)
Congrats on understanding less than you did in college?
I didn't vote for school bored or bart director. Or dianne feinstein. But I thought of David and Ray voted for Pelosi. Even though shes an idiot.
P
It worked out fine for me as a D-H, but did it really not occur to anybody to divide things up a bit more evenly?
Same thing happened to me as well. But for me the two big lines were L-R (the biggest) and S-Z being the most populated while the A line wasn't populated at all. Seemed a really stupid way of doing it and it took the staff about 3 hours to realize that the worker up front was sending all the L-Z people into one big line until they got up to the polling area.
McCoy, there were three ballot initiatives on the back of your ballot (as well as DC Council chair) - I hope you didn't forget to turn it over.
There was only one race in DC that was uncontested. I think it was a school board position. I wrote in one of my friend's name on the ballot.
I'm pretty sure only the Swiss do that.
Maybe Wallace felt that LeMay could carpet bomb all the Northern/Liberal cities and he would win.
I don't think those initiatives are going to be close at all.
"Any day now, sir, the tide's going to turn for us. Any day now. It's going to happen soon. Just a few more sorties. Any day now, sir."
Which way? I haven't been following polling on them (I voted no on all three).
Libertarians don't believe they live in a vacuum. They do believe that everything is zero sum, so taking their money (by force) and spending it on stuff is no better (and in fact mostly worse) than having their money. I strongly believe government (and the social contract) is not zero sum (and that the transaction cost of all those silly Libertarian contracts would be really high), but of course I am not a Libertarian.
Probably because it's already been talked about. And also that voter suppression and Sandy effected voting is not the same thing.
Now, government redistribution is zero sum -- well, negative sum actually, because of deadweight losses.
I see Misirlou's golden era for porn was late 90s/early 00s. Only a person who was intimately familiar with the era would be aware of Sydnee Steele.
They don't believe that, either. Voluntary associations and voluntary contracts, commercial and otherwise, are the polar opposite of "zero sum."
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