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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   2901. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4294584)
flip
   2902. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4294585)
I agree with Gold Star that AZ isn't going blue this year, but I'd say the above statement is accurate if you replace "flip" with "make it close."


AZ and UT annoy me, because the aesthetics of the big blue block from CA to TX just look better.
   2903. OCF Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4294586)
My suburbanoid California neighborhood: in and out with no wait at about 9:30 A.M. No way to compare to 2008, since the both the polling location and size of location have changed. Lots of SUVs in the parking lot, but more vehicles in the parking lot than accounted for by people inside the polling station, so maybe a lot of them were doing things elsewhere in the park (the location is a rec. center in a large park.)
   2904. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4294587)
If anyone has time on their hands and wants to get in the mood for election night coverage, there's some great stuff on youTube from past election nights, including extended coverage from 1976 and 1968 and a good chunk of NBC's 1960 coverage. Fascinating walk down memory lane for oldsters and a history lesson for younguns.

You can also see the network trend from numbers, numbers, numbers to analysis, analysis, analysis.
   2905. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4294588)
Shocked, I am, shocked.


You usually are, Lassus. So it's status quo, as that's your perpetual state.
   2906. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4294589)
We're going to see a lot of people on the left flip out if Romney wins. Charges of racism, voter suppression, etc.


We're going to see a lot of people on the right flip out if Obama wins. Charges of media bias, voter fraud, etc.
   2907. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4294590)
Anti-feline bias...


Hey I have three and two are fine (especially the cancer ridden old dude who is in charge because he has attitude in all directions), but the third cat is just annoying (but is the sister of Cat #2 who is a favorite of my youngest and since I am not willing to break up the set I am stuck with her).

But yeah, dogs are superior (and clearly collectivist).
   2908. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4294591)
5 minutes to vote in a liberal in-town Atlanta neighborhood. Folks here definitely vote early/absentee - I live in a pretty politically engaged part of town.


A friend of mine had to wait an hour and a half. YMMV indeed.

Hey maybe in 2014 I can be your County Commissioner!
   2909. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4294593)
We're going to see a lot of people on the right flip out if Obama wins. Charges of media bias, voter fraud, etc.


Don't forget ominous scowling Negroes scaring decent white folk from the polls. They got a lot of mileage out of that in 2008.
   2910. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4294594)
   2911. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4294596)
But yeah, dogs are superior (and clearly collectivist).

I've come to enjoy them both equally, though I sadly can't have a dog in my current digs. One day! I also want either a goat or Llama for some reason. I'm not even kidding.
   2912. SoSH U at work Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4294598)
Heck, just reading the comments on John Mellencamp's FB posts is depressing. Oh yeah, y'all are such big fans, you're just stunned he's voting for a Muslim, Ronald Reagan loved "Little Pink Houses".


I don't get that. How could anyone who's interested enough in John Mellencamp to visit his Facebook page be remotely surprised that he's voting for Obama?
   2913. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4294599)
I think that would scare everybody.


Golf clap.
   2914. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4294600)
My best friend raised goats as a child and he said it was really cool.
   2915. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4294601)
Dude, I love my cats (well I tolerate one of them), but they are amoral predators who give sociopaths a bad name.


And yet, I still get to vote. AMERICA!
   2916. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4294602)
Don't forget ominous scowling Negroes scaring decent white folk from the polls. They got a lot of mileage out of that in 2008.


FoxNews is still playing that tune today.
   2917. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4294603)
You usually are, Lassus. So it's status quo, as that's your perpetual state.


Fortunately Ray never, ever personally attacks anyone, calls names or anything like that.
   2918. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4294604)
I don't get that. How could anyone who's interested enough in John Mellencamp to visit his Facebook page be remotely surprised that he's voting for Obama?

I would hate to see Springsteen's FB page then. Kid Rock's is still pretty hilarious, I'd bet...
   2919. Mefisto Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4294605)
My best friend raised goats as a child and he said it was really cool.


Did he feed them testicles?
   2920. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4294606)
(my neighbor uses a drop cloth when he trims his hedges).


Huh. I usually just do it over the toilet. Maybe he should trim more often?
   2921. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4294607)
The above-the-fold stories on foxnews.com:
One of the best things about this election cycle is Fox's complete descent into right wing cheerleading. I mean, they were more or less already there, but they've completely dropped all pretext of being fair and balanced, hopefully to the point where actual journalists can now just point and laugh.
   2922. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4294608)
Total aside: While clearing out political email from my inbox I came across a "deal" for getting a Roomba. Should I get one for my house? Are they worthwhile?

I would put it in the basement (finished) where I rarely get around to sweeping. Cool toy or terrible waste of money?

Now back to politics (and cats) unleashed.
   2923. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4294609)
hopefully to the point where actual journalists can now just point and laugh.


They weren't doing that already?
   2924. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4294610)
The saner among the rightwingers know that Obama is favored - or at best think it is even - so they won't go crazy with an Obama win.


Neal Boortz signed off today by basically saying, "I think Obama will win, and I'll probably be calling in sick tomorrow"

   2925. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4294611)
2921, I am looking forward to seeing how Murdoch exacts his revenge on Christie, though. Fox News can always sink lower.
   2926. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4294612)
2919 and 2920 clearly show the campaign season has gotton to everyone :) OK, I laughed, I admit it.
   2927. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4294613)
Total aside: While clearing out political email from my inbox I came across a "deal" for getting a Roomba. Should I get one for my house? Are they worthwhile?

My buddy has one it says it isn't that great. Terribly finnicky and can get clogged and such if you have pets and such that require heavy duty work. If you have a smallish area with not a lot of stuff obstructions it isn't that bad but then again sweeping up that kind of an area isn't that hard either.
   2928. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4294614)
Total aside: While clearing out political email from my inbox I came across a "deal" for getting a Roomba. Should I get one for my house? Are they worthwhile?

No. You'd still have to sweep/vacuum the places it misses so you save no time. Not to keep bringing up cats, but if you have cats, then yeah, it might be worth it for reasons having nothing to do with cleanliness.
   2929. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4294615)
While clearing out political email from my inbox I came across a "deal" for getting a Roomba. Should I get one for my house? Are they worthwhile?

In China Miéville's novel Perdido Street Station, a Roomba becomes sentient, precipitating political unrest and scientific innovations. So I say, yes.
   2930. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4294616)
In China Miéville's novel Perdido Street Station, a Roomba becomes sentient, precipitating political unrest and scientific innovations. So I say, yes.


China Mieville is so friggin' weird.
   2931. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4294617)
I would hate to see Springsteen's FB page then. Kid Rock's is still pretty hilarious, I'd bet...


Ted Nugent's doesn't disappoint. Well, the comments section, I mean, I don't think he actually posts on it.
   2932. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4294618)
Don't forget ominous scowling Negroes scaring decent white folk from the polls.

It's already started, what with the "ominous" Black Panthers outside the polling places.

Of course, as Seinfeld might say, as far as whitey is concerned, the "ominous" describing Black Panthers is as superfluous as "the clown" appended to Bozo.
   2933. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4294619)
I have no appetite today. I skipped breakfast and I think I'll just skip lunch, too. If I have to solace myself with booze tonight, it's going to be a 30 second job.
   2934. Greg K Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4294620)
Total aside: While clearing out political email from my inbox I came across a "deal" for getting a Roomba. Should I get one for my house? Are they worthwhile?

Only if you attach an iPod to it.
   2935. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4294621)
Not to keep bringing up cats, but if you have cats, then yeah, it might be worth it for reasons having nothing to do with cleanliness.


They turn cats into cavalry.
   2936. formerly dp Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4294622)
1) Libertarianism is more of a 17th century philosophy.


Sort of not really. But this is the part where you need to acknowledge the historicity of your own ideology-- I get what the classic liberals were agitating for, and what they wanted to move beyond. The problem is that once they moved beyond it, subsequent thinkers took it to be a historically transcendental political philosophy.

2) Socialism is the ideology founded on MINEMINEMINEMINE!!! It's just that the phrase doesn't actually refer to things that actually do belong to the speaker.


The problem has always been that you want things both ways-- you want "the contract" to be accorded some sort of sacred status, but you want to erase all of the conditions that brought it into being, to not consider the comprised positions people are in when they agree to be bound by "the contract." Once you expand you consideration of justice beyond the purely contractual, the claims you make on the labor of others disappears. Your position requires a mechanism to enforce your metaphysics on those who don't accept its validity, but then pretends to just be the way things should be, rather than the way one class set them up to be in order to privilege their class-based worldview.
   2937. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4294623)
You usually are, Lassus. So it's status quo, as that's your perpetual state.

Fortunately Ray never, ever personally attacks anyone, calls names or anything like that.


Give it a rest, BM. Lassus and I know each other personally. This is a little light jabbing among friends, as was his "I am shocked, shocked" comment.

In (slightly) other words: give it up.
   2938. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4294624)
Dude, I love my cats (well I tolerate one of them), but they are amoral predators who give sociopaths a bad name.
How else would you expect them to act around a mouse?
If Hispanic turnout breaks records in AZ enough to flip there state, there's almost certainly going to be enough unexpected Hispanic votes to flip Colorado.
Maybe, but they didn't pass an anti-immigrant law in Colorado like the one in Arizona. It's quite possible that AZ Hispanics could be more motivated than CO Hispanics.
   2939. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4294627)
If Arizona were close, the Dems would have gone for it. I'm guessing Romney wins it easily. Maybe next time, though...
   2940. formerly dp Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4294628)
We're going to see a lot of people on the right flip out if Obama wins. Charges of media bias, voter fraud, etc.


The woman in line behind me at the polling place was blaming the blacks and Latinos for voting based on racial/ethnic identity rather than national identity. I wasn't quite sure how this critique was going to play out, except that it probably ended in "if they put country first, they'd vote Romney."
   2941. Jim Wisinski Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4294629)
I also want either a goat or Llama for some reason. I'm not even kidding.


I love goats.

You guys can feel free to take that out of context and make assumptions if you'd like.
   2942. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4294630)
My best friend raised goats as a child and he said it was really cool.


Ms. McGunnigle herded goats for a while. She really got to like them. They're cool, weird, active, and clever animals with their own way of doing things. They can be a handful, but they're never mean to humans (though they can be unpleasant with dogs). A lot better than sheep, which are panicky idiots.

EDIT: Donkeys are also nice, but hard to take care of. Even the little ones.
   2943. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4294631)
My best friend raised goats as a child and he said it was really cool.
Why didn't he raise them as goats? Poor things will never get used to sitting at desks in school.
   2944. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:17 PM (#4294632)
Total aside: While clearing out political email from my inbox I came across a "deal" for getting a Roomba.
From which party? Democrats or Republicans? If the former, the price difference will just come out of the Treasury.
   2945. Swoboda is freedom Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4294633)
I have one cat who would be a good president. He's a worrier and is constantly checking on everyone. It's kind of weird, actually.

My cat's entire platform would be that birds are evil and must be destroyed. Tippi Hedren would be an ideal running mate.
   2946. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4294635)
Give it a rest, BM. Lassus and I know each other personally.


Ray you take this stance of how you never ever attack anyone, and then you act surprised when I point out that you do. I told you at the time you should just admit you engage in personal attacks both because it was true and it would save you grief in the long run. Just admit it and I will drop it forever.
   2947. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:21 PM (#4294637)
My cat's entire platform would be that birds are evil and must be destroyed.


Include squirrels and my dog would definitely be on board.
   2948. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:21 PM (#4294638)
Sam Wang on the early voting #'s.

Bad news and good news for both sides.
   2949. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:22 PM (#4294639)
Roombas have some value as novelty as well. I think they aren't effective enough to be worth it, but they're not un-useful.
   2950. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4294640)
From 2719-

I bet the guy running for Coroner would be the most stunned if he had competition.


A student prankster named Ben Granby ran in the Republican primary for coroner unopposed when I was in college. His campaign ads included him in a bloody whitecoat clutching a knife with the slogan "Ben Granby: He's Gravely Concerned About Our Future." I believe he received several thousand votes.
   2951. Repoz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4294642)
It's already started, what with the "ominous" Black Panthers outside the polling places.

FOX rang the ALARM BANNER and cut to the "ominous" Black Panther...who at that moment opened and held the door for two elderly white women.

FOX quickly pulled off it.
   2952. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4294643)
I don't want to live in a society where my vote is crucial. That kind of society scares me.


And you need to vote (and do other things) to make sure that doesn't come about.
   2953. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4294645)
FOX rang the ALARM BANNER and cut to the "ominous" Black Panther...who at that moment opened and held the door for two elderly white women.
My first inclination was that Fox had paid some dude to stand outside the polling place, but looks like that's probably not true.
   2954. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:28 PM (#4294646)
You're right in one respect, though. American society probably isn't ready for libertarianism. But that's more American society's shortcoming than libertarians'.


No. No society is and no society ever has been, and no society ever will be. It has to do with the innate limitations of libertarianism, not with society's. Giving in to that urge is allowing that quasi-religious utopian part of your mindset (the bad part) to get the upper hand. That can wreak havoc.
   2955. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:28 PM (#4294647)

FOX rang the ALARM BANNER and cut to the "ominous" Black Panther...who at that moment opened and held the door for two elderly white women.

FOX quickly pulled off it.


Please tell me someone has posted that to youtube so I can watch it when I get home...
   2956. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4294648)
but they're not un-useful.

That really should be there slogan.
   2957. Monty Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4294649)
On CNN, I just learned that Ron Paul's new nickname is "The Texas Maverick".
   2958. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4294650)
Ray you take this stance of how you never ever attack anyone, and then you act surprised when I point out that you do. I told you at the time you should just admit you engage in personal attacks both because it was true and it would save you grief in the long run. Just admit it and I will drop it forever.


Yawn.
   2959. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4294652)
So if it hasn't been tried yet, then it can't be a good idea? I guess no one should have ever bothered with democracy! Or for that matter, trying to solve any problem ever.


Hey, it's Saturday and I got nothing to do--what say we establish a Libertarian society. Oh, yeah.

Democracy has been around since we organized in tribes--probably before.
   2960. Langer Monk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4294653)
Please tell me someone has posted that to youtube so I can watch it when I get home...


This should be it.
   2961. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4294656)
Democracy has been around since we organized in tribes--probably before.


So has tyranny.
   2962. formerly dp Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4294657)
On CNN, I just learned that Ron Paul's new nickname is "The Texas Maverick".


It's not often people learn things from CNN. Cherish this moment forever.
   2963. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4294660)

An unexpected glitch almost caused one central Pennsylvania voter to cast his ballot for the wrong candidate, highlighting concerns about voter fraud on an already tense election day.

"I initially selected Obama but Romney was highlighted," writes Centralpavote on YouTube. "I assumed it was being picky so I de-selected Romney and tried Obama again, this time more carefully, and still got Romney."

A software developer, he tried troubleshooting the screen. "I first thought the calibration was off and tried selecting Jill Stein to actually highlight Obama. Nope. Jill Stein was selected just fine. Next I de-selected her and started at the top of Romney's name and started tapping very closely together to find the 'active areas.' From the top of Romney's button down to the bottom of the black checkbox beside Obama's name was all active for Romney."

A few more taps and he discovered that the only way to select Obama was to click on a small sliver of the screen. All of the buttons for the other candidates seemed to work fine.

Other voters at the precinct didn't have the same problem, he said, and the volunteer didn't seem concerned. "She him hawed for a bit then calmly said, 'It's nothing to worry about, everything will be OK,' and went back to what she was doing," he wrote. "I then recorded this video."

He insists that the video is unedited—the jumpy looking frames are from the camera app on his Android phone, he says—but Yahoo is working on getting the raw footage. Reports are pouring in from other voters who say they've had the same experience with electronic voting machines in other areas, and the computer-savvy among them are quick to point out that the problem is less about fraud and more about faulty electronics.


Video
   2964. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4294661)
This should be it.

Ha. I sent that link to my friend who works at the Daily Show.
   2965. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:37 PM (#4294663)
Please tell me someone has posted that to youtube so I can watch it when I get home...


This should be it.


That really is hilarious.

(I love the lead-in: "Fox News alert...")
   2966. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:37 PM (#4294664)
Well, time to go vote. See you later, weirdos!
   2967. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4294666)
A student prankster named Ben Granby ran in the Republican primary for coroner unopposed when I was in college. His campaign ads included him in a bloody whitecoat clutching a knife with the slogan "Ben Granby: He's Gravely Concerned About Our Future." I believe he received several thousand votes.

There's an indie-comedy version of "The Candidate" in here somewhere.....
   2968. Greg K Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4294667)
Why didn't he raise them as goats? Poor things will never get used to sitting at desks in school.

That's nidicolous!
   2969. The Good Face Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4294668)
Ms. McGunnigle herded goats for a while. She really got to like them. They're cool, weird, active, and clever animals with their own way of doing things. They can be a handful, but they're never mean to humans (though they can be unpleasant with dogs). A lot better than sheep, which are panicky idiots.


Yeah, goats can make surprisingly good pets under the right circumstances. You can pretty much forget about housebreaking them (although I know one guy who swears his is housebroken...mostly), but they're reasonably smart and affectionate if raised right. Sheep are indeed dumb. Dumb as hell.

   2970. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4294669)
NBC's 1960 Election coverage, featuring "projections" from RCA's 501 computer It's "a wedding of political science and electronic science" that "does the work of 60,000 clerks".

Nixon spent election day "in a private home rented from a chipped beef salesman".
   2971. dave h Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4294670)
#2954, now that you put it that way, I'm convinced! I barely even noticed that your post contained no substance whatsoever, and just assigned random words to a position that you dislike.
   2972. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4294671)
Sheep are indeed dumb. Dumb as hell.
Which is why they always vote Demopublican.
   2973. Monty Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4294672)
So Ron Paul was on CNN. The anchor wanted him to endorse a candidate. Instead, he talked about how both of them are basically the same and how either one is a vote for the status quo. You know the stuff.

Then the anchor said, "So, status quo...sounds like you're leaning Obama?"
   2974. BurlyBuehrle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4294673)
First time at a new precinct in a GE


Zonk, 2722, which precinct? Also voted in Chicago* today and there was a ton of confusion at the polling place - apparently, a bunch of new precincts. Folks arriving who were told to go to Location X responded with "I was just at Location X, they told me to come here..."

*Angelo's Pizza, ~3100 W Montrose.

**Yes, it was weird to vote at a pizza joint.

   2975. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4294674)
(In my view, the healthiest society is one in which nobody votes because it doesn't matter -- not because we're choosing between Tweedledee and Tweedledum, to use Nader's formulation, but because the government plays so little role in society, and choices are made at the individual level.)


There's no situation in which having a say in what happens to you doesn't matter. Unless you're into the sick and perverted. Libertarians see the perfect society as a sadomasochistic construct, with the propounder envisioning himself as the sadist while delusionally or dishonestly promising that everyone can be the sadist, that there can be whipping without anyone getting whipped.

People are dumb, but I just like writing that; the real issue is that they're ignorant. (Rationally so, I might add.) Adding in the votes of a lot of people who don't know anything about policy -- even if they're smart enough to understand it if they invested the time and energy to do so -- does not improve the policy.


The issue is self-interest. Everybody wants there's (and it's nice to have a cushion) and are afraid they won't get it--that someone will steal their rightful share.
   2976. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4294675)
Ben Granby - that got some national attention, as I recall.
   2977. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4294676)
Zonk, 2722, which precinct? Also voted in Chicago* today and there was a ton of confusion at the polling place - apparently, a bunch of new precincts. Folks arriving who were told to go to Location X responded with "I was just at Location X, they told me to come here..."

*Angelo's Pizza, ~3100 W Montrose.

**Yes, it was weird to vote at a pizza joint.


44th ward, 33rd precinct -- basement of the church on the corner of Byron/Marshfield....
   2978. Greg K Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4294677)
Ben Granby - that got some national attention, as I recall.

You're probably thinking of the "Ice Town Costs Ice Clown His Town Crown" fiasco that was Ben Wyatt's term as mayor of Partridge, MN.
   2979. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4294678)
Sheep are indeed dumb. Dumb as hell.

Which is why they always vote Demopublican.


Judging from the historical reticence of libertarians to cast off the shackles of Big Government and go off and start their own Utopian society based on a pure economy of gumption and self-reliance, I think I know where the chicken vote goes.
   2980. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:51 PM (#4294679)
Libertarians see the perfect society as a sadomasochistic construct


Won't anyone stand up for the sadomasochists?

Seriously though I don't think this is a very sound analogy.
   2981. The Good Face Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4294680)
Judging from the historical reticence of libertarians to cast off the shackles of Big Government and go off and start their own Utopian society based on a pure economy of gumption and self-reliance, I think I know where the chicken vote goes.


America; Love it or leave it you pinkos!
   2982. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4294681)
FACT: Martin Luther, one of the most brilliant Christian theologians and scriptural scholars in history, did not bekieve in Heaven.
   2983. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:54 PM (#4294682)
2978 - Ah, that's it - I wonder whatever happened that guy. Anyway, you'll have to excuse me, I'm gonna go eat a chocolate waffle.
   2984. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 06, 2012 at 01:55 PM (#4294683)
Just killing time until 7.
   2985. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4294684)
So, uh.... who's winning?
   2986. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4294685)
Just killing time until 7.


How many times have you voted? Would you like the contact information of my Chicago style politics union thug black panther acorn friends who can set you up with some additional registrations so you can fill the spare hours with more votes?

As we speak, I'm feverishly trying to work my way the stack of 500 ballots they gave me.
   2987. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4294686)
I love that "intimidating Black Panther" in Philadelphia, who in the video was politely holding open the door for a pair of white women who were entering the polling area. I guess that to some folks, any black person bigger than Gary Coleman is "intimidating".
   2988. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4294687)
Did anyone compile all the predictions so we know who gets bragging rights? I suggest in case of ties the earliest prediction wins.
   2989. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:02 PM (#4294688)
I predict that the race will be not be as close as some say it is, but not as much a blow-out as others say it is. Also, no matter what happens, lots of people will lose their ####.

/Unhelpful analysis
   2990. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:02 PM (#4294689)
Democracy has been around since we organized in tribes--probably before.

So has tyranny.

Sure. Now, what's that got to do with your point?
   2991. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4294690)
FACT: Martin Luther, one of the most brilliant Christian theologians and scriptural scholars in history


How on Earth* would you determine relative brilliance of Christian theologians and scriptural scholars? Honest question, I would have no idea where to start, other than perhaps most influential and I assume that is not the criteria (though he likely does fit in the most influential bucket).

* In heaven it would obviously be easy, especially since he would then be disproved in his belief.
   2992. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4294692)
I want to live in a pantisocracy. Not because I believe in Utopian communalism, but because I want to live under a government that sounds like it's run by people wearing pants.

FACT: Martin Luther, one of the most brilliant Christian theologians and scriptural scholars in history, did not believe in Heaven.


But he did believe in the Resurrection at Judgment Day. The soul "slept" until this point (in a doctrine called mortalism). More importantly: is this supposed to mean something?
   2993. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:07 PM (#4294693)
I hate pants.

I didn't like the constitutional ballot question this morning, so I crossed it out and proposed my own:

"Being as all Illinoisans rightfully hate pants, the wearing of such shall be made a felony punishable by 5 years in prison".

I hope it passes... if you haven't voted in IL, don't forget to cross out the ballot question and write this one in... I'm pretty sure it works that way.
   2994. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4294695)
Democracy has been around since we organized in tribes--probably before.


Well someone asserted Libertarianism is 17th century. For most purposes that is a fine place to start the clock on Democracy for running modern nation states. So both have very roughly the same start. I scknowledge in theory Libertarianism might work (so does Communism btw), but in terms of organizational political systems I think Democracy is proving to be a pretty darn effective method, though perhaps only the least bad.
   2995. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4294696)
I love that "intimidating Black Panther" in Philadelphia, who in the video was politely holding open the door for a pair of white women who were entering the polling area. I guess that to some folks, any black person bigger than Gary Colemn is "intimidating".


You needed to work the word "ominous" in there somewhere, Andy.

FAIL.
   2996. spycake Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4294697)
Gamingboy: where's the election checklist? I want to see what qualifies as the Conradian move of the night...
   2997. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4294698)
Luther: Reference to the ten people who don't vote?

How on Earth would you determine relative brilliance of Christian theologians and scriptural scholars?
That's what the free market is for. (pulls out VM ranking monkey)
   2998. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:10 PM (#4294699)
Gamingboy: where's the election checklist? I want to see what qualifies as the Conradian move of the night...


It would presumably involve somebody dropping chads or something.
   2999. Greg K Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4294701)
But he did believe in the Resurrection at Judgment Day. The soul "slept" until this point (in a doctrine called mortalism). More importantly: is this supposed to mean something?

I just took it as a way to kill time until 7.

How about this Finnish claim that Luther was trying to bridge Latin and Eastern Orthodox theology. I'm not very well versed in religious history...is this non-crazy?

Also, "pantisocracy" has officially made my list of possible social policy breakthroughs in the Civilization-with-RPG-elements I'm working on.
   3000. Greg K Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4294702)
Well someone asserted Libertarianism is 17th century. For most purposes that is a fine place to start the clock on Democracy for running modern nation states.

I think it has been almost a full 24 hours since I last tried to indelicately shove 1620s politics into the discussion...I'm about due.
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