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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   3001. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4294703)
I, for one, like pants.
   3002. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4294704)
I want to live in a pantisocracy.


Rule by lingerie-clad women?
   3003. Steve Treder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4294706)
Rule by lingerie-clad women?

Angela Merkel in lingerie ... no, thanks.
   3004. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4294707)
Voter wall suppression!

Clearly the election is rigged.
   3005. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4294709)
So has tyranny.

Sure. Now, what's that got to do with your point?


Libertarianism is a better antidote to tyranny than modern liberalism and other chords in the key of collectivism.
   3006. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4294710)
How on Earth would you determine relative brilliance of Christian theologians and scriptural scholars?


Compare them to their contemporaries. The Catholic Church had no one in Luther's league in terms of scholarship, intelligence, seriousness, and commitment. This is the great tragedy of the Church (and, in some ways, of Western Europe). If the Church had had Luther's equal in the upper reaches of the hierarchy then maybe the opening phase of the Reformation happens within the Church, and the next 170 years are a lot less murderous than they actually were.
   3007. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4294711)
44th ward, 33rd precinct -- basement of the church on the corner of Byron/Marshfield....
Mine's usually at Sheil Park, Cornelia and Southport. I assume that's where it is this year, but of course, I won't be there to actually vote, which is really kind of bumming me out.
   3008. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4294712)
Libertarianism is a better antidote to tyranny than modern liberalism and other chords in the key of collectivism.


So are Unicorns and Santa Claus.
   3009. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4294713)
The Catholic Church had no one in Luther's league in terms of scholarship, intelligence, seriousness, and commitment.

And writing ability! Luther was an amazing wordsmith.
   3010. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:19 PM (#4294714)
Compare them to their contemporaries.


OK, but using what criteria?

#3009: Here is where my lack of religious knowledge hurts. I have no idea if this is snark or serious evaluation of his writing ability.
   3011. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4294715)
handsomeness
   3012. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4294716)
I, for one, look forward to Kaijutocracy. Mothra/Gamera '16!
   3013. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4294717)
I'll do it for Gamingboy

FOX breathlessly reports the return of ominous (happy, Ray?) Black Panthers [X]
Dailykos has recommend diary about vote machine recording Obama votes for Romney [X]
Ron Paul says both candidates are the same [X]
Celebrity says something stupid [ ]
Celebrity says something offensive [ ]
Pundit starts crowing too early about Nate Silver's inaccuracy [ ]
Democratic pundit claims to be 'encouraged' by turnout [ ]
Republican pundit claims to be 'encouraged' by turnout [ ]
James O'Keefe gets arrested for 'proving' how easy it is to commit voter fraud [ ]
Tea Partier shows up to 'poll watch' with an assault rifle [ ]
OWS shows up to 'poll watch' with a smart phone [ ]
Michael Gerson uses both of the evidence above to prove that 'both sides do it' [ ]
Wolf Blitzer says race is too close to call after CNN calls the election [ ]
Rachel Maddow is as cute as ever and I wish I were a lesbian [X]
Keith Olbermann rents a really large projector and projects himself doing election night coverage all by himself onto the surface of the moon [ ]

   3014. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4294718)
Compare them to their contemporaries.

OK, but using what criteria?


Contributions to the advancement of science based on their scriptural revelations of course.
   3015. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:22 PM (#4294719)
Talking head says "Osama" instead of "Obama" [ ]
Network calls a state for one candidate, but then retracts it later in the evening [ ] (Conradian call)
John King's magic map breaks down or locks up [ ]
Someone calls the hologram technology "cool" [ ]
One network says a state "is too close to call" as another network calls the state for a candidate [ ]
   3016. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:22 PM (#4294720)
Libertarianism is a better antidote to tyranny than modern liberalism and other chords in the key of collectivism.


No, it isn't, and no one here has ever demonstrated how it possibly could. It's a nonsensical stance and will lead to worse, as it's influence on American life shows.
   3017. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:23 PM (#4294721)
Zonk, I may be sitting out the checklist for politics, but I do have to say this: How about add something about a holographic projection of the Senate showing up?

(Coke to RTG)
   3018. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:23 PM (#4294722)
Celebrity says something stupid [ ]
Celebrity says something offensive [ ]


Only real celebrities, I don't want anyone cheating by checking this off just because they saw Victoria Jackson at a teabag hootenanny.
   3019. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4294724)
Libertarianism is a better antidote to tyranny than modern liberalism

Didn't modern liberalism align itself with the civil rights movement, reproductive rights, gender equality, and several other resistances to tyranny? Oh, forgot, those ills would all have been cured faster and better by the workings of an unfettered marketplace :)
   3020. Greg K Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4294726)
Contributions to the advancement of science based on their scriptural revelations of course.

John Polkinghorne?
   3021. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4294727)
No, it isn't, and no one here has ever demonstrated how it possibly could.

Huh? Its core tenet of leaving people and voluntary associations of people alone demonstrates it.
   3022. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4294729)
Voted with no wait about 10:30. After 20 years of voting in a neighbor's garage where they even fed us, this was the first time in the homeowners' association clubhouse. Poll worker said they'd been busy, but that of course is relative.

Seemed like a light ballot for a presidential year: prez/vp, senator, rep, both state chambers, city supervisor, mass transit board, school board, junior college board, 11 state props and seven city props. Got to vote on capital punishment, what I think of Citizens United, whether to tear down a century-old dam and whether I should help a rich insurance company owner get even richer.
   3023. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4294730)
Newt Gingrich claims he'd have won by 100+ EVs [ ]
PUMA claims Hillary would have won reelection by a landslide [ ]
George W Bush sighting [ ]
NOT a Bill Clinton sighting [ ]
Chris Matthews tells a Tip O'Neil story [ ]
   3024. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4294731)
Candidate talking head says "Everyone is upbeat" while defeat looms large [ ]
   3025. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4294732)
I believe it was Winston Churchill who said that Democracy is the worst type of government, save for all the other types of government that exist.

Even taking into account he was referring to the Parliamentary system, I always think about that.
   3026. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4294733)
OK, but using what criteria?


Oh, how many original and lasting insights he had. An ability to win disputations. Evidence of ability in and understanding of Greek & Hebrew. I'm not really sure on exact criteria, because you're always stuck with importance as an ultimate measure in an area in which an absolutely correct answer is impossible to come by. Luther's an easy choice, though, because a lot of his insights are foundational.

#3009: Here is where my lack of religious knowledge hurts. I have no idea if this is snark or serious evaluation of his writing ability.


He's considered a great stylist by Germans, both his writings and his collected table talk. A lot of his hymns are still sung, and his #1 hit is often sung in English as "A Mighty Fortress Is Our God".
   3027. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4294734)
I'm a little concerned this evening/tonight/tomorrow is going to be utter chaos.
   3028. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:29 PM (#4294735)
There's an indie-comedy version of "The Candidate" in here somewhere.....


I found a two more sources of Granby antics, if anyone's interested: http://web.cecs.pdx.edu/~maier/wisc-journal/j04.txt and http://badgerherald.com/news/2011/12/12/prankster_reflects_o.php

As the official Republican candidate he got a third of the vote for coroner.
   3029. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:29 PM (#4294736)
Didn't modern liberalism align itself with the civil rights movement, reproductive rights, gender equality, and several other resistances to tyranny? Oh, forgot, those ills would all have been cured faster and better by the workings of an unfettered marketplace :)


If it were up to the marketplace, part of this country would still have a slave system.
   3030. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4294737)
I'm a little concerned this evening/tonight/tomorrow is going to be utter chaos.

Supposedly there are 230K absentee ballots outstanding in Ohio that have a return date of 10 days post-election. So Ohio probably won't have a winner tonight or anytime reasonably soon.
   3031. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4294738)
I get the feeling this is either going to be quick, or it will, as Lassus said, be chaos. The election will either be decided by the time Jon Stewart comes on the air, or it will be going on for a long time of recounts and lawsuits.
   3032. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4294739)
I'm a little concerned this evening/tonight/tomorrow is going to be utter chaos.

Let's just say that I bought an extra box of 12 gauge shells and a couple extra bottles of scotch.
   3033. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4294740)
   3034. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4294741)
If it were up to the marketplace, part of this country would still have a slave system.

State power, not the "marketplace," enforced the slave system.
   3035. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4294742)
Talking head says one candidate is going to win a certain state, host then immediately cuts that person off to announce results are in and they are calling the state for the other guy. [ ]
   3036. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4294743)
I'm a little concerned this evening/tonight/tomorrow is going to be utter chaos.

Supposedly there are 230K absentee ballots outstanding in Ohio that have a return date of 10 days post-election. So Ohio probably won't have a winner tonight.


Not to mention talk of machines acting up, NY and NJ troubles, the regular Florida disfunction, etc. Could be wild.
   3037. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4294744)
Thanks Fernigal!
   3038. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4294745)
BTW, I saw somewhere that there were reports that GOP had beaten Dems in early voting in Colorado. Anybody have confirmation anywhere on that? I mean, that wouldn't necessarily mean Romney would win in Colorado, but it certainly would make it much more likely...
   3039. Langer Monk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4294746)
whether to tear down a century-old dam


I, for one, await these results with bated breath.
   3040. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4294747)
Ooh! This is kind of cool. Empire State Building to be used to display electoral results.


I still want to see it used for it's original purpose: Dirigibles!
   3041. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4294748)
Isnt that hit more famous because of Bach than Luther? I know it as the text of one of the greatest cantatas ever written. Had no ckue until just now that ML wrote it.

But anyway...the actual scriptural basis for heaven must be pretty weak.
   3042. Quaker Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4294749)
LOL @ considering Maddow attractive.
   3043. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4294750)
Huh? Its core tenet of leaving people and voluntary associations of people alone demonstrates it.


You can say that; that's not proof of anything. Libertarianism would depend--it's only imaginable--through an enforcement mechanism outside of itself. So where does that get you?

Besides, what belief system doesn't promote that--until there's a consequence that is seen as intolerable?
   3044. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4294751)

But anyway...the actual scriptural basis for heaven must be prettt weak.


So...what is the reason to live a holy life again?
   3045. Steve Treder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4294752)
Let's just say that I bought an extra box of 12 gauge shells and a couple extra bottles of scotch.

Wuss. I do that every morning before breakfast.
   3046. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4294753)
Supposedly there are 230K absentee ballots outstanding in Ohio that have a return date of 10 days post-election. So Ohio probably won't have a winner tonight.


Obama can win pretty early even if Ohio takes forever and Florida goes to Romney.
NH + Wisconsin + Iowa + Virgina = Obama win

And that doesn't include the strong lead Obama has in Nevada.
   3047. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4294754)
Besides, what belief system doesn't promote that--until there's a consequence that is seen as intolerable?

Modern liberalism, whose core tenets are the involuntary extraction of taxes and interference in voluntary arrangements it deems unacceptable.

So, to sum up: Libertarianism's core tenets are anti-tyrannical; modern liberalism's are tyrannical.
   3048. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4294755)
I saw somewhere that there were reports that GOP had beaten Dems in early voting in Colorado. Anybody have confirmation anywhere on that? I mean, that wouldn't necessarily mean Romney would win in Colorado, but it certainly would make it much more likely.


To the best of my knowledge, no states have actually counted (or at least released results from) early votes. Party numbers that get bandied about are based on party registration. Different states differ in how they count party registration, but if it's based at all on who took what ballots in the most recent primaries, it's worth remembering that the Republican primary in Colorado was quite competitive (I think this might have been Santorum's last realistic stand, even), while the Democratic primary was, of course, completely uninteresting (at the Presidential level). So, take party registrations with at least a grain, if not a tablespoon, of salt. (and, of course, in making comparisons to 2008, one has to remember that the 2008 Democratic primary was perhaps the most competitive ever)
   3049. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4294756)

Supposedly there are 230K absentee ballots outstanding in Ohio that have a return date of 10 days post-election. So Ohio probably won't have a winner tonight or anytime reasonably soon.


Sure it will, unless you posit a massively skewed number of absentee ballots. If those 230,000 ballots are split 60-40 for one candidate, that's a 46,000 vote margin for one candidate. It's quite likely the winning margin in Ohio is more than 46,000 votes. If the margin is, say, 103,000, it's not logical to consider the race "too close to call".
   3050. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4294757)
o...what is the reason to live a holy life again?

Well..he didnt believe in the doctrine of works either.

But the faithful still get ressurrected in the body at the last judgment.

   3051. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4294758)
Family sample at the same polling place

7:15am: 10 minute wait
12:00pm: 5 minute wait

We normally go at 6:30pm and never has the wait been more than 10 minutes.

But then again, as was pointed out by even a liberal family member in a recent discussion about the 3-hour wait times for early voting, all of our neighbors are illegal immigrants. I didn't expect that considering the source, but it's not far from the truth. It's among the top 10 locations according to estimates and day laborers pick up each morning across the street.
   3052. Spahn Insane Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4294760)
Zonk, 2722, which precinct? Also voted in Chicago* today and there was a ton of confusion at the polling place - apparently, a bunch of new precincts. Folks arriving who were told to go to Location X responded with "I was just at Location X, they told me to come here..."

*Angelo's Pizza, ~3100 W Montrose.

**Yes, it was weird to vote at a pizza joint.


Ah, a pizza joint's standard fare as a polling place around here. I'm about a half mile north of you. For the three elections I've been here, the polling places for my precinct have been Richard's Body Shop, Huaraches Mexican Restaurant, and the Korean-American Senior Center.

EDIT: I voted early at Horner Park, so I don't know if the problems you describe are occurring at my precinct today or not. Hope not, obviously.
   3053. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4294762)

Modern liberalism, whose core tenets are the involuntary extraction of taxes and interference in voluntary arrangements it deems unacceptable.


One of those voluntary arrangements you claim to want to uphold is the arrangement whereby we all agree to pay the amount of taxes our elected representatives agree on. So those taxes can hardly be considered "involuntary". You voluntarily agreed to the contract that requires you pay them. You are free, of course, to terminate the contract and remove yourself to another jurisdiction.
   3054. GregD Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4294764)
Just got a call from a live person from the Obama campaign (surely a 15-year-old volunteer) asking if we had voted and whom we voted for. WTF? We live on the Upper West Side of New York, a high-turnout high-Dem neighborhood; I get the GOTV impulse, but there must be more important people to call.
   3055. just plain joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4294766)
All this talk about goats upthread has got me jonesing for a bock beer.
   3056. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4294767)
How on Earth* would you determine relative brilliance of Christian theologians and scriptural scholars? Honest question, I would have no idea where to start, other than perhaps most influential and I assume that is not the criteria (though he likely does fit in the most influential bucket).
Ask Nate Silver?
   3057. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4294768)
One of those voluntary arrangements you claim to want to uphold is the arrangement whereby we all agree to pay the amount of taxes our elected representatives agree on.

Huh? I never agreed to that, nor is it in any way "voluntary." I was born in the United States, and the arrangements regarding taxes were thrust upon me without my input.

And thus there is no "contract" to "terminate."
   3058. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4294769)
One of those voluntary arrangements you claim to want to uphold is the arrangement whereby we all agree to pay the amount of taxes our elected representatives agree on. So those taxes can hardly be considered "involuntary". You voluntarily agreed to the contract that requires you pay them. You are free, of course, to terminate the contract and remove yourself to another jurisdiction.

Which would be a good point if you couldn't use this argument to justify *anything whatsoever* the government does, so long as they leave you the opportunity to terminate the contract and remove yourself to another jurisdiction.

   3059. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4294770)
Early voting #s:
CO: 35/37 (d/r), 1.6m votes
NV: 44/37, .7m
FL: 43/40, 4.3m
IA: 43/32, .6m
NC: 48/32, 2.7m
OH: 29/23, 1.6m
   3060. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4294771)
Huh? I never agreed to that, nor is it in any way "voluntary." I was born in the United States, and the arrangements regarding taxes were thrust upon mew without my input.


Well then, off you go.
   3061. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4294772)
   3062. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4294774)
You are free, of course, to terminate the contract and remove yourself to another jurisdiction.

Are you going to pay for his flight, moving expenses, possible language training, job search/placement expenses? If not, then moving isn't free either. Not to mention what Dan says in #3058.
   3063. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4294775)
Hmm...
Libertarianism: 17th century
Conservatism: 1950s American suburbs
Progressivism: late 19th century Europe

What about the neo-cons and neo-liberals?
   3064. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4294776)
Modern liberalism, whose core tenets are the involuntary extraction of taxes and interference in voluntary arrangements it deems unacceptable.

So, to sum up: Libertarianism's core tenets are anti-tyrannical; modern liberalism's are tyrannical.


That's nothing but pure quasi-pseudo-religious dogma. Assertions with nothing more.
   3065. Nasty Nate Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4294779)
Huh? I never agreed to that, nor is it in any way "voluntary." I was born in the United States, and the arrangements regarding taxes were thrust upon me without my input.


True, and you would be similarly born into involuntary arrangements in a libertarian world.
   3066. spycake Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4294782)
Fisted! [ ]
Her father is elected district attorney [ ]
   3067. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4294783)
True, and you would be similarly born into involuntary arrangements in a libertarian world.

Non-tyrannical ones.
   3068. GregD Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4294784)
If it were up to the marketplace, part of this country would still have a slave system.

State power, not the "marketplace," enforced the slave system


This is actually a fascinating friction in that both arguments are true. Slavery is literally the triumph of market over restraint; slave societies weren't anti-commercial feudalist societies; they were more commercial than we would tolerate.

On the other hand, slavery as a system depends upon, well, a system, and that system has to be law to be meaningful. No one can regulate hundreds of slaves by himself or even with enough guards (if you have 200 guards, then you've lost your profit margin.) Slavery depends--as Olmsted and Karl Marx and Stephen Douglas, not exactly similarly thinking mid-century people, all wrote--entirely on the willingness of neighbors to capture and return escaping (or just hanging out) slaves. That depends on the legal code to protect them for their actions.

On the other hand, individual slavery, as opposed to a slave system, can only be eliminated through law. Absent law, anyone can physically overpower another person and force them into subjugation.

So slavery in its ultimate form only exists through state power, but emancipation in its ultimate form also only exists through state power. These weird paradoxes are why 19th century Southerners sound so strange to modern ears, libertarians sometimes, wild organic statists some times, the Marxists of the master class sometimes.
   3069. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4294785)
One of those voluntary arrangements you claim to want to uphold is the arrangement whereby we all agree to pay the amount of taxes our elected representatives agree on. So those taxes can hardly be considered "involuntary". You voluntarily agreed to the contract that requires you pay them. You are free, of course, to terminate the contract and remove yourself to another jurisdiction.
I never agreed to it. Not voluntarily. Not even involuntarily. (That is, the gunpoint is to ensure the taxes are paid, not to ensure one signs on to any "contract.")

(It just amazes me how many liberals, completely unironically, say, "Love it or leave it." In the 1960s, liberals used to see that as the height of illiberalism.)

EDIT: I mean, what the hell was the matter with Jim Crow? Blacks could have left the South if they wanted. Obviously, they were happy with the arrangement.
   3070. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4294786)
True, and you would be similarly born into involuntary arrangements in a libertarian world.

Non-tyrannical ones.


And what if you parents decided they were bored with you and just threw you into the Hudson? Who would you have hired to prevent that?
   3071. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:52 PM (#4294789)
whether to tear down a century-old dam


I, for one, await these results with bated breath.


I was trivializing what has been an environmental controversy for even more than a century. And it really is a difficult issue: How far can you go to right what (many consider) a historical wrong when the water supply to about 3 million people is at stake.
   3072. Swoboda is freedom Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:53 PM (#4294790)
All this talk about goats upthread has got me jonesing for a bock beer.

Is that to get the goat in the mood?
   3073. spycake Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:53 PM (#4294791)
Screw the 2012 early voting results -- I want some numbers on 2016 early voting.
   3074. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:53 PM (#4294792)
Anyone have any idea of the signal/noise ratio between voter fraud reports and actual voter fraud?
   3075. Nasty Nate Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4294793)
True, and you would be similarly born into involuntary arrangements in a libertarian world.

Non-tyrannical ones.


And you would have a magic talking unicorn as a pet, too.
   3076. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4294794)
State power, not the "marketplace," enforced the slave system


No. State power just doesn't miraculously engenders itself. Those who benefited form that slave system forced the state to do its bidding. Let's not put the cart before the horse.
   3077. Tripon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4294795)
In a libertarian society, there's always the issue who is going to provide for 'public' services. And what would be an equitble fee for it. You have to answer that before you take any potential community seriously.

Also, there's Rapture from Bioshock. That city went down the crapper fast, despite it being a Randian paradise.
   3078. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4294797)

Obama can win pretty early even if Ohio takes forever and Florida goes to Romney.
NH + Wisconsin + Iowa + Virgina = Obama win

And that doesn't include the strong lead Obama has in Nevada.


Yeah, it may depend on VA. If Obama wins VA, he only needs two of NH/IA/NV - doesn't need OH or FL in that scenario, and it's basically over.
However, if Romney pulls out VA, he's forces Obama to win one of OH/FL (or CO/NV/NH/IA).
   3079. jmurph Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4294798)
I think it has been almost a full 24 hours since I last tried to indelicately shove 1620s politics into the discussion...I'm about due.


Greg UK: not quite the right time period, but have you read Wolf Hall and the follow-up? The Cromwell historical fiction? It's worlds apart from my normal reading but I picked it up recently after everyone insisted that it was amazing. I'm slowly getting into it.
   3080. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4294800)
Re: #3059 early voting numbers
So registered Democrats' numbers fell from 2008 while registered Republicans' numbers rose from 2008. And that doesn't even account for the independents or party switchers which are likely to break for Romney. Got to wonder if those narrower margins will survive the traditional lead Republicans have among election day voters.
   3081. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4294801)
   3082. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4294802)

7:15am: 10 minute wait
12:00pm: 5 minute wait


Sounds like there was a whole lotta vote suppression going on at 7:15am.
   3083. formerly dp Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4294804)
Libertarianism's core tenets are anti-tyrannical;


They depend on being able to impose their very particular notion of property rights on others. They depend on others recognizing the inherent validity of their 'natural' rights. That's only not tyranny if you think 'natural' rights come from god, instead of being invented by a wealthy class of Europeans.
   3084. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4294805)
I mean, what the hell was the matter with Jim Crow? Blacks could have left the South if they wanted. Obviously, they were happy with the arrangement.


Blacks couldn't leave. You can. No one is stopping you.
   3085. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:58 PM (#4294807)
Those who benefited form that slave system forced the state to do its bidding. Let's not put the cart before the horse.

Just as those who benefit from taking other people's money and interfering with the voluntary arrangements of others use the state to do their bidding.

Moral: Don't allow the state to be co-opted for tyrannical purposes. If only we could get modern liberals' agreement on this principle ....
   3086. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4294810)
Blacks couldn't leave. You can. No one is stopping you.

If you have a wikipedia account, then, you should propose this article for deletion.
   3087. JustDan Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4294811)
Obama can win pretty early even if Ohio takes forever and Florida goes to Romney.
NH + Wisconsin + Iowa + Virgina = Obama win

And that doesn't include the strong lead Obama has in Nevada.


Use this handy tool to figure how each can win.
   3088. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4294813)
Also, there's Rapture from Bioshock. That city went down the crapper fast, despite it being a Randian paradise.


Love that game. And don't forget that after that it became a pseudo-collectivist crapper, just to show that going too far down one end of the spectrum or the other is a recipe for disaster.


Looking forward to "Infinite", which seems to be "Patriotism gone too far". No doubt Infinite+1 will be about internationalism gone too far. Need to upgrade my computer...
   3089. Nasty Nate Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4294815)
Blacks couldn't leave.


uh, what?
   3090. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4294816)
Just as those who benefit from taking other people's money and interfering with the voluntary arrangements of others use the state to do their bidding.


Sure. Thus its, thus it always has been, thus it always will be. Under any system, the state derives its power from something outside of itself, and it will have to mediate between parties. And under libertarianism, however that would be manifested, it would, too. You can't around it. Why live a delusion and a lie.
   3091. formerly dp Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4294818)
Also, there's Rapture from Bioshock. That city went down the crapper fast, despite it being a Randian paradise.


It didn't really go down the crapper, it just manifested the state of nature in its purest form. Psyched about Infinite...

Edit: Gamingboy unsurprisingly types faster...coke...
   3092. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:04 PM (#4294820)
I never agreed to it. Not voluntarily. Not even involuntarily. (That is, the gunpoint is to ensure the taxes are paid, not to ensure one signs on to any "contract.")

(It just amazes me how many liberals, completely unironically, say, "Love it or leave it." In the 1960s, liberals used to see that as the height of illiberalism.)

EDIT: I mean, what the hell was the matter with Jim Crow? Blacks could have left the South if they wanted. Obviously, they were happy with the arrangement.


So you're saying that an ostensibly voluntary arrangement turns out not to be voluntary at all after you look at the circumstances surrounding it? That ostensible consent doesn't make everything okay?

Next thing you'll be saying is that mine workers didn't agree to be subject to black lung disease, "not voluntarily, not even involuntarily." We'll make a liberal out of you yet!

And of course you don't have to leave. The liberal retort to "love it or leave it" was "love it .. and make it better". Which you have the option of doing. But nonetheless, one of the conditions of remaining a citizen in good standing is agreeing to follow the rules voluntarily, including those about paying taxes. Of course, there's also civil disobedience if that's your thing. But that's essentially walking away from a contract because you consider it unjust. Which is fine, but not very libertarian.
   3093. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:05 PM (#4294821)
3089:

uh, what?
   3094. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:05 PM (#4294822)
uh, what?

It's the obvious response to your assertion that blacks weren't able to leave the South *during the Jim Crow era*.
   3095. Nasty Nate Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4294824)
3089:

uh, what?


Blacks could and did leave the south.
   3096. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:08 PM (#4294825)
So you're saying that an ostensibly voluntary arrangement turns out not to be voluntary at all after you look at the circumstances surrounding it?

There's nothing even ostensibly voluntary about the "contract" to pay taxes.
   3097. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:09 PM (#4294827)
#3087

Yup. That's my new favourite scenario tool to play with.

Also, there's Rapture from Bioshock. That city went down the crapper fast, despite it being a Randian paradise.

Love that game. And don't forget that after that it became a pseudo-collectivist crapper, just to show that going too far down one end of the spectrum or the other is a recipe for disaster.


Bioshock is one of my favourite games, ever.
Bioshock II was a let down (but still fun at times), and the multiplayer was a f*cking sh!t sandwich.

I'm going to give "Infinite" some time to breathe after it's been released to shake out the bugs.
   3098. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4294828)

I'm going to give "Infinite" some time to breathe after it's been released to shake out the bugs.


I probably will too. Well, that and I need to upgrade my gaming computer to Windows 7. XP lasted way longer than I thought it would....
   3099. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4294829)
My official prediction is that I think Obama will win, but I won't be shocked if Romney does. Surprised? Sure.
   3100. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4294830)
Flip
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