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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
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Rule by lingerie-clad women?
Angela Merkel in lingerie ... no, thanks.
Clearly the election is rigged.
Sure. Now, what's that got to do with your point?
Libertarianism is a better antidote to tyranny than modern liberalism and other chords in the key of collectivism.
Compare them to their contemporaries. The Catholic Church had no one in Luther's league in terms of scholarship, intelligence, seriousness, and commitment. This is the great tragedy of the Church (and, in some ways, of Western Europe). If the Church had had Luther's equal in the upper reaches of the hierarchy then maybe the opening phase of the Reformation happens within the Church, and the next 170 years are a lot less murderous than they actually were.
So are Unicorns and Santa Claus.
And writing ability! Luther was an amazing wordsmith.
OK, but using what criteria?
#3009: Here is where my lack of religious knowledge hurts. I have no idea if this is snark or serious evaluation of his writing ability.
FOX breathlessly reports the return of ominous (happy, Ray?) Black Panthers [X]
Dailykos has recommend diary about vote machine recording Obama votes for Romney [X]
Ron Paul says both candidates are the same [X]
Celebrity says something stupid [ ]
Celebrity says something offensive [ ]
Pundit starts crowing too early about Nate Silver's inaccuracy [ ]
Democratic pundit claims to be 'encouraged' by turnout [ ]
Republican pundit claims to be 'encouraged' by turnout [ ]
James O'Keefe gets arrested for 'proving' how easy it is to commit voter fraud [ ]
Tea Partier shows up to 'poll watch' with an assault rifle [ ]
OWS shows up to 'poll watch' with a smart phone [ ]
Michael Gerson uses both of the evidence above to prove that 'both sides do it' [ ]
Wolf Blitzer says race is too close to call after CNN calls the election [ ]
Rachel Maddow is as cute as ever and I wish I were a lesbian [X]
Keith Olbermann rents a really large projector and projects himself doing election night coverage all by himself onto the surface of the moon [ ]
Contributions to the advancement of science based on their scriptural revelations of course.
Network calls a state for one candidate, but then retracts it later in the evening [ ] (Conradian call)
John King's magic map breaks down or locks up [ ]
Someone calls the hologram technology "cool" [ ]
One network says a state "is too close to call" as another network calls the state for a candidate [ ]
No, it isn't, and no one here has ever demonstrated how it possibly could. It's a nonsensical stance and will lead to worse, as it's influence on American life shows.
(Coke to RTG)
Only real celebrities, I don't want anyone cheating by checking this off just because they saw Victoria Jackson at a teabag hootenanny.
Didn't modern liberalism align itself with the civil rights movement, reproductive rights, gender equality, and several other resistances to tyranny? Oh, forgot, those ills would all have been cured faster and better by the workings of an unfettered marketplace :)
John Polkinghorne?
Huh? Its core tenet of leaving people and voluntary associations of people alone demonstrates it.
Seemed like a light ballot for a presidential year: prez/vp, senator, rep, both state chambers, city supervisor, mass transit board, school board, junior college board, 11 state props and seven city props. Got to vote on capital punishment, what I think of Citizens United, whether to tear down a century-old dam and whether I should help a rich insurance company owner get even richer.
PUMA claims Hillary would have won reelection by a landslide [ ]
George W Bush sighting [ ]
NOT a Bill Clinton sighting [ ]
Chris Matthews tells a Tip O'Neil story [ ]
Even taking into account he was referring to the Parliamentary system, I always think about that.
Oh, how many original and lasting insights he had. An ability to win disputations. Evidence of ability in and understanding of Greek & Hebrew. I'm not really sure on exact criteria, because you're always stuck with importance as an ultimate measure in an area in which an absolutely correct answer is impossible to come by. Luther's an easy choice, though, because a lot of his insights are foundational.
He's considered a great stylist by Germans, both his writings and his collected table talk. A lot of his hymns are still sung, and his #1 hit is often sung in English as "A Mighty Fortress Is Our God".
I found a two more sources of Granby antics, if anyone's interested: http://web.cecs.pdx.edu/~maier/wisc-journal/j04.txt and http://badgerherald.com/news/2011/12/12/prankster_reflects_o.php
As the official Republican candidate he got a third of the vote for coroner.
If it were up to the marketplace, part of this country would still have a slave system.
Supposedly there are 230K absentee ballots outstanding in Ohio that have a return date of 10 days post-election. So Ohio probably won't have a winner tonight or anytime reasonably soon.
Let's just say that I bought an extra box of 12 gauge shells and a couple extra bottles of scotch.
State power, not the "marketplace," enforced the slave system.
Supposedly there are 230K absentee ballots outstanding in Ohio that have a return date of 10 days post-election. So Ohio probably won't have a winner tonight.
Not to mention talk of machines acting up, NY and NJ troubles, the regular Florida disfunction, etc. Could be wild.
I, for one, await these results with bated breath.
I still want to see it used for it's original purpose: Dirigibles!
But anyway...the actual scriptural basis for heaven must be pretty weak.
You can say that; that's not proof of anything. Libertarianism would depend--it's only imaginable--through an enforcement mechanism outside of itself. So where does that get you?
Besides, what belief system doesn't promote that--until there's a consequence that is seen as intolerable?
But anyway...the actual scriptural basis for heaven must be prettt weak.
So...what is the reason to live a holy life again?
Wuss. I do that every morning before breakfast.
Obama can win pretty early even if Ohio takes forever and Florida goes to Romney.
NH + Wisconsin + Iowa + Virgina = Obama win
And that doesn't include the strong lead Obama has in Nevada.
Modern liberalism, whose core tenets are the involuntary extraction of taxes and interference in voluntary arrangements it deems unacceptable.
So, to sum up: Libertarianism's core tenets are anti-tyrannical; modern liberalism's are tyrannical.
To the best of my knowledge, no states have actually counted (or at least released results from) early votes. Party numbers that get bandied about are based on party registration. Different states differ in how they count party registration, but if it's based at all on who took what ballots in the most recent primaries, it's worth remembering that the Republican primary in Colorado was quite competitive (I think this might have been Santorum's last realistic stand, even), while the Democratic primary was, of course, completely uninteresting (at the Presidential level). So, take party registrations with at least a grain, if not a tablespoon, of salt. (and, of course, in making comparisons to 2008, one has to remember that the 2008 Democratic primary was perhaps the most competitive ever)
Sure it will, unless you posit a massively skewed number of absentee ballots. If those 230,000 ballots are split 60-40 for one candidate, that's a 46,000 vote margin for one candidate. It's quite likely the winning margin in Ohio is more than 46,000 votes. If the margin is, say, 103,000, it's not logical to consider the race "too close to call".
Well..he didnt believe in the doctrine of works either.
But the faithful still get ressurrected in the body at the last judgment.
7:15am: 10 minute wait
12:00pm: 5 minute wait
We normally go at 6:30pm and never has the wait been more than 10 minutes.
But then again, as was pointed out by even a liberal family member in a recent discussion about the 3-hour wait times for early voting, all of our neighbors are illegal immigrants. I didn't expect that considering the source, but it's not far from the truth. It's among the top 10 locations according to estimates and day laborers pick up each morning across the street.
*Angelo's Pizza, ~3100 W Montrose.
**Yes, it was weird to vote at a pizza joint.
Ah, a pizza joint's standard fare as a polling place around here. I'm about a half mile north of you. For the three elections I've been here, the polling places for my precinct have been Richard's Body Shop, Huaraches Mexican Restaurant, and the Korean-American Senior Center.
EDIT: I voted early at Horner Park, so I don't know if the problems you describe are occurring at my precinct today or not. Hope not, obviously.
One of those voluntary arrangements you claim to want to uphold is the arrangement whereby we all agree to pay the amount of taxes our elected representatives agree on. So those taxes can hardly be considered "involuntary". You voluntarily agreed to the contract that requires you pay them. You are free, of course, to terminate the contract and remove yourself to another jurisdiction.
Huh? I never agreed to that, nor is it in any way "voluntary." I was born in the United States, and the arrangements regarding taxes were thrust upon me without my input.
And thus there is no "contract" to "terminate."
Which would be a good point if you couldn't use this argument to justify *anything whatsoever* the government does, so long as they leave you the opportunity to terminate the contract and remove yourself to another jurisdiction.
CO: 35/37 (d/r), 1.6m votes
NV: 44/37, .7m
FL: 43/40, 4.3m
IA: 43/32, .6m
NC: 48/32, 2.7m
OH: 29/23, 1.6m
Well then, off you go.
2012 early voting stats.
Are you going to pay for his flight, moving expenses, possible language training, job search/placement expenses? If not, then moving isn't free either. Not to mention what Dan says in #3058.
Libertarianism: 17th century
Conservatism: 1950s American suburbs
Progressivism: late 19th century Europe
What about the neo-cons and neo-liberals?
That's nothing but pure quasi-pseudo-religious dogma. Assertions with nothing more.
True, and you would be similarly born into involuntary arrangements in a libertarian world.
Her father is elected district attorney [ ]
Non-tyrannical ones.
This is actually a fascinating friction in that both arguments are true. Slavery is literally the triumph of market over restraint; slave societies weren't anti-commercial feudalist societies; they were more commercial than we would tolerate.
On the other hand, slavery as a system depends upon, well, a system, and that system has to be law to be meaningful. No one can regulate hundreds of slaves by himself or even with enough guards (if you have 200 guards, then you've lost your profit margin.) Slavery depends--as Olmsted and Karl Marx and Stephen Douglas, not exactly similarly thinking mid-century people, all wrote--entirely on the willingness of neighbors to capture and return escaping (or just hanging out) slaves. That depends on the legal code to protect them for their actions.
On the other hand, individual slavery, as opposed to a slave system, can only be eliminated through law. Absent law, anyone can physically overpower another person and force them into subjugation.
So slavery in its ultimate form only exists through state power, but emancipation in its ultimate form also only exists through state power. These weird paradoxes are why 19th century Southerners sound so strange to modern ears, libertarians sometimes, wild organic statists some times, the Marxists of the master class sometimes.
(It just amazes me how many liberals, completely unironically, say, "Love it or leave it." In the 1960s, liberals used to see that as the height of illiberalism.)
EDIT: I mean, what the hell was the matter with Jim Crow? Blacks could have left the South if they wanted. Obviously, they were happy with the arrangement.
Non-tyrannical ones.
And what if you parents decided they were bored with you and just threw you into the Hudson? Who would you have hired to prevent that?
I was trivializing what has been an environmental controversy for even more than a century. And it really is a difficult issue: How far can you go to right what (many consider) a historical wrong when the water supply to about 3 million people is at stake.
Is that to get the goat in the mood?
And you would have a magic talking unicorn as a pet, too.
No. State power just doesn't miraculously engenders itself. Those who benefited form that slave system forced the state to do its bidding. Let's not put the cart before the horse.
Also, there's Rapture from Bioshock. That city went down the crapper fast, despite it being a Randian paradise.
Yeah, it may depend on VA. If Obama wins VA, he only needs two of NH/IA/NV - doesn't need OH or FL in that scenario, and it's basically over.
However, if Romney pulls out VA, he's forces Obama to win one of OH/FL (or CO/NV/NH/IA).
Greg UK: not quite the right time period, but have you read Wolf Hall and the follow-up? The Cromwell historical fiction? It's worlds apart from my normal reading but I picked it up recently after everyone insisted that it was amazing. I'm slowly getting into it.
So registered Democrats' numbers fell from 2008 while registered Republicans' numbers rose from 2008. And that doesn't even account for the independents or party switchers which are likely to break for Romney. Got to wonder if those narrower margins will survive the traditional lead Republicans have among election day voters.
Sounds like there was a whole lotta vote suppression going on at 7:15am.
They depend on being able to impose their very particular notion of property rights on others. They depend on others recognizing the inherent validity of their 'natural' rights. That's only not tyranny if you think 'natural' rights come from god, instead of being invented by a wealthy class of Europeans.
Blacks couldn't leave. You can. No one is stopping you.
Just as those who benefit from taking other people's money and interfering with the voluntary arrangements of others use the state to do their bidding.
Moral: Don't allow the state to be co-opted for tyrannical purposes. If only we could get modern liberals' agreement on this principle ....
If you have a wikipedia account, then, you should propose this article for deletion.
Use this handy tool to figure how each can win.
Love that game. And don't forget that after that it became a pseudo-collectivist crapper, just to show that going too far down one end of the spectrum or the other is a recipe for disaster.
Looking forward to "Infinite", which seems to be "Patriotism gone too far". No doubt Infinite+1 will be about internationalism gone too far. Need to upgrade my computer...
uh, what?
Sure. Thus its, thus it always has been, thus it always will be. Under any system, the state derives its power from something outside of itself, and it will have to mediate between parties. And under libertarianism, however that would be manifested, it would, too. You can't around it. Why live a delusion and a lie.
It didn't really go down the crapper, it just manifested the state of nature in its purest form. Psyched about Infinite...
Edit: Gamingboy unsurprisingly types faster...coke...
So you're saying that an ostensibly voluntary arrangement turns out not to be voluntary at all after you look at the circumstances surrounding it? That ostensible consent doesn't make everything okay?
Next thing you'll be saying is that mine workers didn't agree to be subject to black lung disease, "not voluntarily, not even involuntarily." We'll make a liberal out of you yet!
And of course you don't have to leave. The liberal retort to "love it or leave it" was "love it .. and make it better". Which you have the option of doing. But nonetheless, one of the conditions of remaining a citizen in good standing is agreeing to follow the rules voluntarily, including those about paying taxes. Of course, there's also civil disobedience if that's your thing. But that's essentially walking away from a contract because you consider it unjust. Which is fine, but not very libertarian.
uh, what?
It's the obvious response to your assertion that blacks weren't able to leave the South *during the Jim Crow era*.
Blacks could and did leave the south.
There's nothing even ostensibly voluntary about the "contract" to pay taxes.
Yup. That's my new favourite scenario tool to play with.
Bioshock is one of my favourite games, ever.
Bioshock II was a let down (but still fun at times), and the multiplayer was a f*cking sh!t sandwich.
I'm going to give "Infinite" some time to breathe after it's been released to shake out the bugs.
I probably will too. Well, that and I need to upgrade my gaming computer to Windows 7. XP lasted way longer than I thought it would....
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