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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   3101. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4294831)
Nixon's making a conditional concession speech at 3:00 AM just before going to bed, and he's incredibly gracious about it. Of course as it turned out, the race wasn't finally decided until late Wednesday morning.
   3102. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4294832)
32nd first!


3101. Jolly Old St. Nick Points To The Sky Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4294831)


D'oh.
   3103. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4294833)
32nd first!

Sorry, the Nader votes bumped you down.
   3104. BurlyBuehrle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4294834)
@3052:

EDIT: I voted early at Horner Park, so I don't know if the problems you describe are occurring at my precinct today or not. Hope not, obviously.


Horner Park was "Location X" in my post - people said they had been there, only to be told to come to Angelo's. The election officials at Angelo's were trying to get it straightened out, but apparently, the telephone number to the Board of Elections was busy. I didn't stick around to see how it turned out.

When I lived in Chicago previously (many years, interrupted by a 6-year stay in LA), I voted in park district buildings, churches, community halls...but never a pizza joint.
   3105. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4294835)
So you're saying that an ostensibly voluntary arrangement turns out not to be voluntary at all after you look at the circumstances surrounding it? That ostensible consent doesn't make everything okay?
No; I'm saying that "ostensibly" doesn't mean what you think it means.¹ There's nothing ostensibly voluntary about it.




¹ Definitely one of those words that if you repeat several times, it loses all meaning.
   3106. formerly dp Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4294838)
Bioshock II was a let down (but still fun at times), and the multiplayer was a f*cking sh!t sandwich.


The multiplayer was perfect evidence for why not all games need multiplayer. As for the main game, it was predictable, but fun to play. Never did get around to playing through the DLC. The first Bioshock was tough to top, especially since its success was sort of unexpected-- a combination of good plot, engaging gameplay, fantastic environmental storytelling, and being released in August when nothing else worthwhile was competing with it.
   3107. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4294840)
It's the obvious response to your assertion that blacks weren't able to leave the South *during the Jim Crow era*.


Thanks. My error. I'm having discussions on different sites.

I of course was referring to Blacks under the slave system.
   3108. hokieneer Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4294841)
If you guys liked bioshock, beyond the gameplay and rand paradise collapse, you should try Spec Ops: The Line. It takes the player-to-main character relationship to another level of intrigue and narration.
   3109. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4294842)

There's nothing even ostensibly voluntary about the "contract" to pay taxes.


Sure there is. Nothing is forcing you to be an American citizen. Your parents did, admittedly, enter you into the contract while you were a minor, as was their legal right, but once you became an adult, you have the ability to terminate the contract at will.

I mean, if I am a member of the local country club, and they insist that I pay my annual dues, I don't get to rage about involuntary confiscation of my property. Paying dues is a requirement of membership in the country club. If I don't want to pay dues, I should not be a member. Same goes for the United States as a whole.

No; I'm saying that "ostensibly" doesn't mean what you think it means.¹ There's nothing ostensibly voluntary about it.


If you are partner to an agreement, and you are allowed to terminate that agreement at any time of your choosing, sounds like an ostensibly voluntary agreement to me.
   3110. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4294844)
Thanks. My error. I'm having discussions on different sites.

Whoa, are you having the exact same one on two different sites? Is that a coincidence or do BTFers have an auxiliary site to argue or something?
   3111. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4294846)
   3112. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4294847)
NBC's RCA 501 "electronic computer" gives Kennedy 333 to 1 odds of winning the 1960 election as of midnight on election night,


And speaking of early computing, there's a moment in the 1968 NBC coverage where Huntley or Brinkley notes that "John Chancellor is over there with something that looks like a TV on top of a typewriter."
   3113. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4294848)
Celebrity says something stupid [ ]


Well, the Rs had Jon Voight stumping in the Philly area last night as their big celebrity!
   3114. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4294850)
And you would have a magic talking unicorn as a pet, too.
No; those jerks never shut up. Trying to sleep, and they just keep talking. No thanks.
   3115. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4294851)
I mean, if I walk onto the local country club golf range, and they insist that I pay dues before doing so, I don't get to rage about involuntary confiscation of my property. Paying dues is a requirement of membership in the country club. If I don't want to pay dues, I should just stay off their property. Same goes for the United States as a whole.

So, is that what you tell homosexual couples? Or people who disagree with the Patriot Act? Or people who have their speech suppressed? Or are drafted and sent off to die in a war they never wanted? (Obviously, there's no draft right now, but this is theoretical)

I'm sure it isn't what you do or would do (nor should you), so your argument is fundamentally dishonest. You don't *really* believe in the "do what the government says because that's part of your social contract" argument; you're just making a rhetorical flourish that nobody really believes (and you know it).
   3116. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4294852)
The Definitive List Of Who Athletes Are Voting For, So You Can Decide If You’ll Hate Them From Now On


Hahahaha! Romney got A-Rod!
   3117. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4294853)
The possibilities for tonight/after:

Obama wins popular vote and electoral vote: GOP has massive meltdown, accuse Dems of voter fraud or something. Many people say or do things that come back to haunt them in the future, especially amongst minorities. Also, they decide to blame Chris Christie. Chris Christie doesn't give a ####. Nate Silver is only the target of disgruntled people who think he hacked into the databases to make himself right.

Obama wins popular vote but loses electorals: GOP praises the Electoral College as democracy in action. Dems try usual fruitless attempts to change voting but don't get that much more success as they have had in the past (whether by proposing amendments or by trying to get compacts signed or whatever). Nate Silver moved to undisclosed location for safety, emerging only occasionally.

Obama loses popular vote but wins electoral: GOP has massive meltdown, and begins- unironically- to declare that the EC is un-American and must be destroyed. Dems change mind on EC, think it's great. GOP attempts to propose amendments or compacts or whatever to change EC are slightly more successful than Dem attempts- partially because Dems have already done some of the work- but still fall short. Nate Silver has NYPD protection around him for a few weeks.

Romney wins both popular and electoral: Nate Silver burned at the stake. Dems have massive meltdown and sue over the various voting irregularities. GOP lured into thinking the "get lots of white people" strategy still works for the long-term, possibly dooming their chances in future elections.

Electoral tie: Romney is president. Joe Biden is veep. Anarchy crosses the land. After the fires have been extinguished, Joe Biden realizes that he can "Springtime for Hitler" the administration and decides to adopt the personality that The Onion thinks he has. Nate Silver gets a ride in Biden's Trans-Am.
   3118. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4294854)
FWIW, black sharecroppers often weren't really able to leave. They were generally in debt up to their eyeballs to the plantation owners and could and often were tracked down and dragged back for non-payment. These weren't fair debts, of course; you were more or less born into sharecropping, and you owed a large amount from the start. It was debt slavery, enforced by the local sheriff. Some of the stories relating to the Great Migration involve people sneaking out in the dead of night and so forth.
   3119. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4294855)
And of course you don't have to leave. The liberal retort to "love it or leave it" was "love it .. and make it better". Which you have the option of doing. But nonetheless, one of the conditions of remaining a citizen in good standing is agreeing to follow the rules voluntarily, including those about paying taxes. Of course, there's also civil disobedience if that's your thing. But that's essentially walking away from a contract because you consider it unjust. Which is fine, but not very libertarian.
It wouldn't be very libertarian if it were a contract. But it isn't. Quick, check: do you see my signature at the bottom?
   3120. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4294857)
Does anyone know what George Will's prediction is?
   3121. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4294858)
   3122. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4294861)
Joe Biden realizes that he can "Springtime for Hitler" the administration and decides to adopt the personality that The Onion thinks he has.


It would be worth the insanity to see this happen.

   3123. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4294862)
Does anyone know what George Will's prediction is?

A Romney landslide.
   3124. BurlyBuehrle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4294863)
The breakdown is almost 100% correlated to the athlete's race.


Except Chris Kluwe -- and I immensely enjoyed when he absolutely DESTROYED that Maryland state delegate who thought that any pro-gay sentiments from NFL players ought to be censored. Kluwe's response to Delegate Burns
   3125. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4294865)
Your parents did, admittedly, enter you into the contract while you were a minor, as was their legal right, but once you became an adult, you have the ability to terminate the contract at will.

There is no contract. My parents didn't contract and even if they did, I wouldn't be bound, anymore than I'm bound by the contracts they did enter into.

Plenty is "forcing" me to be an American citizen. I'm less free to work and live in countries that haven't denominated me a citizen.

I mean, if I am a member of the local country club, and they insist that I pay my annual dues, I don't get to rage about involuntary confiscation of my property. Paying dues is a requirement of membership in the country club. If I don't want to pay dues, I should not be a member. Same goes for the United States as a whole.

The same doesn't go for the "United States as a whole." You voluntarily joined the country club and are truly free to leave. You did not voluntarily contract with the United States or any of its component parts to do anything (at least by merely being born; I suppose you could have voluntarily contracted with the US in the same way you contracted with the country club, but that's not what we're talking about.)

It's rather mind-boggling that this simple distinction is, apparently, so difficult for some to make.
   3126. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4294866)
   3127. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4294867)
Sure there is. Nothing is forcing you to be an American citizen. Your parents did, admittedly, enter you into the contract while you were a minor, as was their legal right, but once you became an adult, you have the ability to terminate the contract at will.
This is wrong. Unless you were born in Kenya and pretended to be born in Hawaii, you are not describing the law accurately at all. And, no, you cannot terminate the contract at will. And it's not a contract.

I mean, if I am a member of the local country club, and they insist that I pay my annual dues, I don't get to rage about involuntary confiscation of my property. Paying dues is a requirement of membership in the country club. If I don't want to pay dues, I should not be a member. Same goes for the United States as a whole.
If you know any country club that sends people to your house to collect your dues at gunpoint, let me know, okay?

Seriously, give it up. This is a terrible line of argument on your part. There's no contract. The "social contract" is a metaphor, and does not involve anything like an actual contract or voluntary consent.
   3128. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4294868)
FWIW, black sharecroppers often weren't really able to leave. They were generally in debt up to their eyeballs to the plantation owners and could and often were tracked down and dragged back for non-payment. These weren't fair debts, of course; you were more or less born into sharecropping, and you owed a large amount from the start. It was debt slavery, enforced by the local sheriff. Some of the stories relating to the Great Migration involve people sneaking out in the dead of night and so forth.

That's absolutely true, and there was actually a small 20th century underground railroad that helped blacks escape situations like that.
   3129. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4294869)
As a Canadian, how I'm feel about these elections...

I voted for Romney, but I don't really feel that strongly about the election (and would be surprised if Romney won). We're practically guaranteed deadlock no matter what happens, which works for me.

Though if Romney wins, I might take a few people in this thread off my ignore list just to see their reactions.
   3130. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4294870)
You are free, of course, to terminate the contract and remove yourself to another jurisdiction.

Are you going to pay for his flight, moving expenses, possible language training, job search/placement expenses? If not, then moving isn't free either. Not to mention what Dan says in #3058.



Wait a sec, in order to finally live his dream of establishing his libertarian utopia, he first needs a HANDOUT?

Man, glibertarians crack me up.
   3131. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4294871)

So, is that what you tell homosexual couples? Or people who disagree with the Patriot Act? Or people who have their speech suppressed? Or are drafted and sent off to die in a war they never wanted? (Obviously, there's no draft right now, but this is theoretical)

I'm sure it isn't what you do or would do (nor should you), so your argument is fundamentally dishonest. You don't *really* believe in the "do what the government says because that's part of your social contract" argument; you're just making a rhetorical flourish that nobody really believes (and you know it).


No, I tell them they should organize and renegotiate the terms of the contract. Silly.

An alternative is civil disobedience. This is the equivalent of having a sit-in at the country club to protest their not having any black members. I don't have a problem with that, but one of the tenets of civil disobedience is that when the officers of the law come to arrest you, you don't offer any resistance, and accept their authority.

The "social contract" is a metaphor, and does not involve anything like an actual contract or voluntary consent.


Of course it's a metaphor, but it definitely involves voluntary consent. You have consented to your taxation. You can claim you didn't, just like you can claim the Earth is flat, but that doesn't make it true.
   3132. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4294872)
Big surprise! "Alaska was supposed to be a Kennedy stronghold", but a last minute visit from Nixon over the last weekend apparently put it into the Nixon column in the early morning hours.
   3133. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4294874)
The "social contract" is a metaphor, and does not involve anything like an actual contract or voluntary consent.

This argument would be a lot easier if we knew the definition of "social contract" the poster was using. Perhaps there's a Merriam-Webster DailyKos Edition out there that defines social contracts as "stuff that progressives pass into law, but not all that other stuff passed into law."
   3134. SoSH U at work Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4294875)
Except Chris Kluwe


And Greg Anthony.

   3135. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4294876)
No, I tell them they should organize and renegotiate the terms of the contract. Silly.

Except when Sugar Bear disagreed with the terms of the so-called contract, that's not what you told him to do. You told him to leave the country.
   3136. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4294877)
Whoa, are you having the exact same one on two different sites? Is that a coincidence or do BTFers have an auxiliary site to argue or something?


I didn't say I was having the same discussion. I said I was having "discussions". Things got hectic.
   3137. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4294878)
At 7:19 AM, NBC gives California to Kennedy, and that puts him over the top---He is now "officially" elected.

Of course California wound up going to Nixon, but what the hell....
   3138. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4294879)
didn't say I was having the same discussion. I said I was having "discussions". Things got hectic.

Aww, that would've been cool.
   3139. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4294880)
The requirement to return "fugitive" slaves to their "owners"? Just part of ye olde social contract.
   3140. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4294881)
So, is that what you tell homosexual couples? Or people who disagree with the Patriot Act? Or people who have their speech suppressed? Or are drafted and sent off to die in a war they never wanted? (Obviously, there's no draft right now, but this is theoretical)

I would tell them to leave the country or work through our political system to elect people who will change things to their liking (or run for office themselves). What would you tell them?
   3141. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4294882)

Except when Sugar Bear disagreed with the terms of the so-called contract, that's not what you told him to do. You told him to leave the country.


I most certainly did not. I only said that was an option.

The requirement to return "fugitive" slaves to their "owners"? Just part of ye olde social contract.


No, I would say that a contract can be so unjust to one party that they are morally justified in tearing it up and starting afresh. But then, unlike libertarians, I don't fetishize the "right to contract". It's just one right among many.
   3142. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4294883)
Perhaps there's a Merriam-Webster DailyKos Edition out there


I laughed.

---

(Thanks for the Will replies.)
   3143. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4294884)
Nixon's making a conditional concession speech at 3:00 AM just before going to bed, and he's incredibly gracious about it. Of course as it turned out, the race wasn't finally decided until late Wednesday morning.


As I recall, at that point NBC was way overstating Kennedy's position, based on a false projection that he had carried California.

EDIT: As stated in 3137
   3144. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4294885)
Though if Romney wins, I might take a few people in this thread off my ignore list just to see their reactions.


"A Few." Now, that is cool.
   3145. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4294886)
I would tell them to leave the country or work through our political system to elect people who will change things to their liking (or run for office themselves). What would you tell them?

The same thing. But what I wouldn't tell them is that they implicitly agreed to this so-called social contract and thus aren't being wronged in any way.
   3146. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4294887)
I most certainly did not. I only said that was an option.


Do you tell gay couples that one "option" they have is to leave the country, or move to another state?

If not, then please do can it, and stop pretending that you are consistent across the board. You have whims, not principles.
   3147. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4294888)
Romney wins both popular and electoral: Nate Silver burned at the stake. Dems have massive meltdown and sue over the various voting irregularities.

In 2004, when the popular vote diverged from the exit polls, some Democratic partisans cited that, not as an indication that the exit polls were inaccurate, but as evidence that the actual vote was fraudulent. I'd expect to see that a bit stronger this time, but ultimately it would be debunked pretty quickly.
   3148. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4294889)
"A Few." Now, that is cool.

Well, I only have like 6 on my ignore list. Joey B is one of them and while it would be fun to see him whine after an Obama win, he doesn't post in these threads regularly. I'd probably unignore Hutcheson and Treder temporarily as they're the most likely to have entertaining histrionics in the unlikely event Romney wins.
   3149. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4294890)
The "social contract" is a metaphor, and does not involve anything like an actual contract or voluntary consent.


Not really. It's the opposite. Formal conventional agreements followed original arrangements agreed upon naturally to form societies, however elemental.
   3150. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4294891)
I think the "you're free to leave" argument is being mischaracterized. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the people making it are saying something like "if you don't like our system, you can change it through the democratic process. If you can't get enough people to buy into your views, you can also opt out if you feel that the tax system is oppressive and unfair. No one is forcing you to stay here."
   3151. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4294893)

Do you tell gay couples that one "option" they have is to leave the country, or move to another state?


I know lots of gay couples that have moved to another state so that they can get married. I most certainly would advise it if it were important to them. Why wouldn't I? I also support people in North Korea fleeing to South Korea if they are able.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the people making it are saying something like "if you don't like our system, you can change it through the democratic process. If you can't get enough people to buy into your views, you can also opt out if you feel that the tax system is oppressive and unfair. No one is forcing you to stay here."


Exactly. Thanks. People who don't like their tax rates have many choices, it's weird to say that they are oppressed in some fashion, yet poor people, who have many fewer options, are demonized by the same people who complain about their taxes.
   3152. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4294894)
This is wrong. Unless you were born in Kenya and pretended to be born in Hawaii, you are not describing the law accurately at all. And, no, you cannot terminate the contract at will. And it's not a contract.


I know that recent law changes now require a fee (I think it's about $400) -- but all you have to do is go to a US embassy or consulate, sign a few forms, and voila... Unlike many countries, the US will even let you renounce without an alternate citizenship - in effect, becoming stateless.

   3153. canadian shield Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4294895)
Chris Christie doesn't give a ####.


Chris Christie = the Honey Badger
   3154. GregD Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4294896)
Obama loses popular vote but wins electoral: GOP has massive meltdown, and begins- unironically- to declare that the EC is un-American and must be destroyed. Dems change mind on EC, think it's great. GOP attempts to propose amendments or compacts or whatever to change EC are slightly more successful than Dem attempts- partially because Dems have already done some of the work- but still fall short. Nate Silver has NYPD protection around him for a few weeks.
I am sure Dems would defend the validity of Obama's election in this case, but I think most Democrats would happily sign on to a proposal to eliminate the EC, even if it helped them in this case. Some anti-EC people were rooting for exactly this outcome on the grounds that if the EC in 2000 and 2012 cost each party an election you could build bipartisan support. I have my doubts about getting the rectangular states onboard though.
   3155. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4294897)
Exactly. Thanks.

Then I have no complaints with that. What you said to Sugar Bear appeared far more aggressive than that to me.
   3156. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4294898)
I just don't see the point in arguing about whether someone is being "wronged" by the tax system.
   3157. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4294899)
Can't believe nobody said "Jeter is mixed-race" in the "racial lines" comment.
   3158. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4294900)
JJJJJIIIIIIIMMMMMMM!!!!!1!!!!!

Dan is taunting again!
   3159. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4294901)
Quick, check: do you see my signature at the bottom?


Mr. SmallBall.
   3160. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4294902)
3115: "Or are drafted and sent off to die in a war they never wanted?"

On the draft. Yes, coerced conscription and assignment to a fighting unit would not be accepted. However, on the earlier question of tax revenues to support government responsibilities, etc. The libertarianism I'm familiar with adopts consistent and traditional definitions. Including the definition of a community, as small as a commune or big as a nation, that requires the protection, member initiation and boundaries for continued existence of that said community. Perhaps you propose less authority to be granted to the executive branch in determining the community's alliances and interests on foreign lands. However, granting that responsibility is simply a matter of recognizing the core definition and responsibilities of a community. It need not justify or provide example to additional responsibilities at the pleasure of the governed majority or governing body.
   3161. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4294904)
   3162. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4294905)
Some anti-EC people were rooting for exactly this outcome on the grounds that if the EC in 2000 and 2012 cost each party an election you could build bipartisan support. I have my doubts about getting the rectangular states onboard though.

The problem is you essentially need bipartisanship among the *most* partisan states on the left and right. Assuming it surpasses all legal hurdles, the first time the compact elects a different president than the electoral college does, the states on the losing end will revoke it for the next election (if they even go along with it for that one - there's a giant step between an agreement and actually enforcing that agreement).
   3163. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4294907)
In 2004, when the popular vote diverged from the exit polls, some Democratic partisans cited that, not as an indication that the exit polls were inaccurate, but as evidence that the actual vote was fraudulent. I'd expect to see that a bit stronger this time, but ultimately it would be debunked pretty quickly.

I expect if it is as close as we think it will be that the losing party will launch an all-out blitz, including lawsuits, along the lines of fighting a stolen election.

If the winner has fewer than 300 EV and the popular vote is within 1%, I'll be surprised if it is settled by the end of Wednesday.


Playing with that cool toy, I'm not nearly as convinced of an Obama win as I was before. FL and NC are on the list as tossups - they'll both go to Romney and when you do that, he actually has a few more routes to victory than Obama. Yes, Obama is leading the polls by just a hair in the remaining states, but I can't see how that is 90% certain territory.
   3164. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4294908)
I just don't see the point in arguing about whether someone is being "wronged" by the tax system.


Of course not, because arguing about it is pointless because it's axiomatic to the modern liberal that people that pay into it aren't being wronged. Why? Because extracting taxes involuntarily to satiate their whims is one of the two core tenets of their philosophy. The other is interfering with voluntary associations of people to satiate their whims.

As noted.
   3165. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4294909)
Dan is taunting again!

That's a pretty low bar for taunting. I simply noted that there are two people that I no longer interact with in any way but that, if an unlikely event happens, their writing would possibly cause me to have enjoyment. I'm not one of those people that, after ignoring someone, passive-aggressively responds to the person through someone else's quoted passages or anything. We all have people that we wish to have no interaction with until the day we die.
   3166. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4294910)
"accuse Dems of voter fraud or something"

Oh, there's voter fraud going on. In Maryland you have a version of the dream act being voted on and casinos fighting each other. The incentives are too high and threat of punishment too low. After all, the party leadership in charge supports both provisions and is likely to deflect any criticism and refuse any opportunity to prosecute.
   3167. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4294911)
   3168. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4294913)
If you know any country club that sends people to your house to collect your dues at gunpoint, let me know, okay?


Why would a country club have any less rights than any other business? It gets a judgment. It gives that judgment to the sheriff. He tells you either to pay up or he starts hauling furniture away.
   3169. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4294914)
(Temporarily) Dead man votes in Michigan!

I'm actually curious as to what the technical ruling is. Does the vote "officially" happen when the moment the vote is cast?
   3170. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4294915)
I would buy the whole Liberalism = Tyranny argument more if someone could show me some examples of actual governments that are not tyranny. The definition you use - they take taxes from me at gunpoint - applies to every modern government in the world as far as I know, so really your complaint is with all modern government and not really liberalism.

Though I do agree liberalism is more enthusiastic about taking your money, but I think you get more for your dollar as well (Clearly your mileage does vary).
   3171. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4294916)

That's a pretty low bar for taunting. I simply noted that there are two people that I no longer interact with in any way but that, if an unlikely event happens, their writing would possibly cause me to have enjoyment. I'm not one of those people that, after ignoring someone, passive-aggressively responds to the person through someone else's quoted passages or anything. We all have people that we wish to have no interaction with until the day we die.


I think he was making a joke.
   3172. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4294917)
We all have people that we wish to have no interaction with until the day we die.


For me, those people are Nancy Grace, Wendy Murphy, and John Feinstein.
   3173. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4294918)
Why would a country club have any less rights than any other business? It gets a judgment. It gives that judgment to the sheriff. He tells you either to pay up or he starts hauling furniture away.

I should note that the IRS does *not* need a court order to garnish wages.
   3174. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4294920)
CNN has pulled out the James Earl Jones "This is CNN" voice. So you know this is serious.
   3175. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4294921)
Dan is taunting again!

That's a pretty low bar for taunting. I simply noted that there are two people that I no longer interact with in any way but that, if an unlikely event happens, their writing would possibly cause me to have enjoyment. I'm not one of those people that, after ignoring someone, passive-aggressively responds to the person through someone else's quoted passages or anything. We all have people that we wish to have no interaction with until the day we die.


I'm kidding...

The problem is you essentially need bipartisanship among the *most* partisan states on the left and right. Assuming it surpasses all legal hurdles, the first time the compact elects a different president than the electoral college does, the states on the losing end will revoke it for the next election (if they even go along with it for that one - there's a giant step between an agreement and actually enforcing that agreement).


IIRC, haven't several/(most?) of the big blue states signed on to EC-voiding plans? I'm pretty sure CA has and could have sworn NY has, too.

I would think that the "big states" -- who tend to have undersized Presidential powers at the moment would be cool with this except for maybe FL and OH. It's the small states (in the EV sense) that would have the most to lose... which is more an odd coalition of the VTs/RIs and WYs/AKs
   3176. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4294922)
What is the update on the ominous black panther who is opening doors for old white ladies in Philly?
   3177. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4294923)
I would buy the whole Liberalism = Tyranny argument more if someone could show me some examples of actual governments that are not tyranny

We don't have a perfect one. But less tyranny is superior to more tyranny. When the government violates our freedom of speech, that we're better than most countries are is an extremely unsatisfying argument to me.
   3178. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4294924)
Dr. Spock and Jackie Kennedy are now discussing federal aid to education in a campaign ad, at the time a revolutionary concept. Also touching on "Medical care for the aged", which was the generic term for what later became Medicare. Jackie just sounds weird, kind of a mix of Marilyn Monroe and Edie the Egg Woman.

Which then segues into another Jackie interview, this time with Myrna Loy, another big fan of the Kennedys. This ad comes off a bit better, but it's still unbelievably stilted and formal.

Loy: "Does your husband want a boy or a girl?" (Jackie was then pregnant with John-John)
   3179. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4294925)
My plan right now is to not taunt or high five when Obama wins, and to take it like a Mouse in big boy pants in the unlikely event Obama loses.
   3180. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4294926)
What is the update on the ominous black panther who is opening doors for old white ladies in Philly?


Last I hear, he was cold.
   3181. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4294927)
What is the update on the ominous black panther who is opening doors for old white ladies in Philly?

I think the judge repossessed his giant wicker chair.
   3182. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4294928)
I'm kidding...


Sorry, I'm multitasking on this big project, so may miss sarcasm at the moment!
   3183. BurlyBuehrle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4294929)
I know that recent law changes now require a fee (I think it's about $400) -- but all you have to do is go to a US embassy or consulate, sign a few forms, and voila... Unlike many countries, the US will even let you renounce without an alternate citizenship - in effect, becoming stateless.


Honest question: in this instance, you would still have to pay taxes, assuming you physically remained in the US, right?

Also, I'll probably be jumping off in the near future. But I wanted to thank everyone on this thread, which I have followed off and on (more on) over the past several months. It has been very informative and, at times, hilarious.

Cheers.
   3184. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4294930)
John Feinstein

Because of the Duke lacrosse case, or does he have other odious qualities? I wouldn't mind talking with Feinstein about writing. Other than that, I'd have the same list of no-interaction people as anybody else: Carrot Top, A-Rod, Charles Manson, the usual.
   3185. Spahn Insane Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4294931)
Horner Park was "Location X" in my post - people said they had been there, only to be told to come to Angelo's.

That might've been because they were confused by the registration cards we recently got in the mail--the mailing the cards were attached to lists both the early voting location and the election day voting location; if you don't read it carefully, it's easy to mess that up. Horner Park was the omnibus early voting location for several (don't know how many) precincts.
   3186. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4294932)
Don't give Dan - or me - a hard time. Elliott Carter died. I'll probably remember that more than this election.
   3187. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4294933)
(Jackie was then pregnant with John-John)

You mean... Mr. Elaine Benes Kennedy Jr.
   3188. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4294934)
My plan right now is to not taunt or high five when Obama wins, and to take it like a Mouse in big boy pants in the unlikely event Obama loses.

That's cool. Any schadenfreude I would experience is targeted specifically, not generally.
   3189. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4294935)
in this instance, you would still have to pay taxes

Non-citizen residents assuredly do have to pay US taxes.
   3190. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4294936)
Don't give Dan - or me - a hard time. Elliott Carter died. I'll probably remember that more than this election.

Yeah, I'm extremely bummed about that. One of the most important musicians of the 20th century has passed! I'd rather Morty become president and Carter have lived to be 200.
   3191. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4294937)
For me, those people are Nancy Grace, Wendy Murphy, and John Feinstein.

I think that regardless of political persuasion, we should all be able to agree on Nancy Grace.
   3192. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4294939)
When the government violates our freedom of speech, that we're better than most countries are is an extremely unsatisfying argument to me.


Which is a very fair response. We pretty much agree on the first amendment annoyance with the current administration (and other bits if I remember), even if not the weight to assign those things we do agree on.

But less tyranny is superior to more tyranny.


We agree on this as well, but we don't agree on where the tryanny is coming from - taxes to gvoernment versus greater access to health care to be simplistic about it (assuming I am remembering your thoughts on those issues, if wrong sorry). That's why they have elections I suppose.

Of course I'm also glad I'm not on your ignore list.
   3193. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4294940)
It's. Over.


“The apus (gods of the hills in indigenous mythology) tell us (Barack) Obama will be reelected,” predicted Juan Osco, known as the Shaman of the Andes on San Cristobal hill overlooking Lima.

AFP reported that "members of the group placed flower petals on photos of the candidates that were also swept over with tobacco smoke. The shamans chewed coca leaves, a traditional ceremonial and medicinal plant since Inca times that helps fight altitude sickness.

And the crew took some swigs of ayahuasca, a psychoactive brew used widely among Amazon basin indigenous people. At least one thing was clear, they said: Obama should defeat Republican Mitt Romney on Tuesday."
   3194. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4294942)
we should all be able to agree on Nancy Grace


I honestly have no idea who that is. My guess would be some talking head/pundit from some cable channel like Fox or MSNBC.

Google check ... yes this appears to be the case. Blind I will sign off on this position and seek to never interact with her. I believe you all that she is loathsome.
   3195. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4294943)
I think that regardless of political persuasion, we should all be able to agree on Nancy Grace.

Yes. Nancy Grace is terrible. I'd rather spend a week with Ann Coulter and Michael Moore than spend 5 minutes listening to her.

Of course I'm also glad I'm not on your ignore list.

Why would you be?
   3196. Danny Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4294944)
Nate Silver Is a One-Man Traffic Machine for the Times

Earlier this year, approximately 1 percent of visits to the New York Times included FiveThirtyEight. Last week, that number was 13 percent. Yesterday, it was 20 percent. That is, one in five visitors to the sixth-most-trafficked U.S. news site took a look at Silver’s blog.

According to Alexa, a Web information company, “538” is the eighth-most searched-for term that led visitors to the Times last month. And over the previous month, it grew more than any other referral term; other increasingly relevant terms were “nate silver” and “538.com.” Notably, no other Times staffers or brands appear on Alexa's lists of top referral terms or rising referral terms.
   3197. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4294945)
Feinsten is because of Duke, and because he's generally a douche-bag.
   3198. Spahn Insane Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4294946)
I think that regardless of political persuasion, we should all be able to agree on Nancy Grace.

Good god, yes. (I'm not even sure who the other two are, though the names are vaguely familiar...)

EDIT: Wait, was Murphy a prosecutor in the Duke lacrosse case? Still don't recall Feinstein.
   3199. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4294947)
I believe you all that she is loathsome.

I'd recommend you finding a clip of Nancy Grace on Youtube, but I don't to be responsible if it results in your face being melted as if the Ark of the Covenant had been opened nearby.
   3200. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4294948)
[moved]
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