|
|
|
|
Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
|
Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
Newsblog: [OTP-May] Politico: Congressional baseball game, May 1, 1926 (4285 - 6:15am, May 24)Last:  FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substanceNewsblog: Richie Ashburn’s Widow in Tears Over His Endangered Gladwyne Grave (6 - 6:12am, May 24)Last: Scott LangeNewsblog: Tangotiger Blog: Ensberg and Tango speak on being locked-in (1 - 5:30am, May 24)Last: Robert in Manhattan BeachNewsblog: OT: The Soccer Thread, May 2013 (1124 - 4:58am, May 24)Last:  Arnett Mead (Arjun)Newsblog: Mitchell: Pedroia, Cano and Magical Thinking (24 - 4:06am, May 24)Last: Walt DavisNewsblog: OT: NHL is finally back thread (363 - 3:49am, May 24)Last:  BurlyBuehrleNewsblog: Mariners sending Jesus Montero to Triple-A (66 - 2:32am, May 24)Last: rb's team is hopeful for the new year!Newsblog: Mets’ Ike Davis On Struggles: ‘I Can’t Do Any Worse’ (24 - 12:28am, May 24)Last: bobmNewsblog: OT: NBA Monthly Thread - May 2013 (1216 - 12:12am, May 24)Last:  thokNewsblog: Demystifying Red Sox Ownership - What Do They Do? (WEEI) (27 - 12:06am, May 24)Last: KT's Pot ArbNewsblog: OMNICHATTER for MAY 23, 2013 (77 - 11:10pm, May 23)Last: Los Angeles El Hombre of AnaheimNewsblog: ESPN: Forging bond with Pete Rose has helped fuel Joey Votto's desire to be great (127 - 11:03pm, May 23)Last:  Everybody Loves Tyrus RaymondNewsblog: Astros vendor brings snow cones into bathroom stall, gets fired (21 - 10:03pm, May 23)Last: Sunday silenceNewsblog: Leyland breaks his own rule, lets Verlander get win after delay (26 - 9:01pm, May 23)Last: the Hugh Jorgan returnsNewsblog: Daugherty: Brandon Phillips has been Reds' MVP so far (18 - 8:14pm, May 23)Last: TJ
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
D'oh.
Sorry, the Nader votes bumped you down.
Horner Park was "Location X" in my post - people said they had been there, only to be told to come to Angelo's. The election officials at Angelo's were trying to get it straightened out, but apparently, the telephone number to the Board of Elections was busy. I didn't stick around to see how it turned out.
When I lived in Chicago previously (many years, interrupted by a 6-year stay in LA), I voted in park district buildings, churches, community halls...but never a pizza joint.
¹ Definitely one of those words that if you repeat several times, it loses all meaning.
The multiplayer was perfect evidence for why not all games need multiplayer. As for the main game, it was predictable, but fun to play. Never did get around to playing through the DLC. The first Bioshock was tough to top, especially since its success was sort of unexpected-- a combination of good plot, engaging gameplay, fantastic environmental storytelling, and being released in August when nothing else worthwhile was competing with it.
Thanks. My error. I'm having discussions on different sites.
I of course was referring to Blacks under the slave system.
Sure there is. Nothing is forcing you to be an American citizen. Your parents did, admittedly, enter you into the contract while you were a minor, as was their legal right, but once you became an adult, you have the ability to terminate the contract at will.
I mean, if I am a member of the local country club, and they insist that I pay my annual dues, I don't get to rage about involuntary confiscation of my property. Paying dues is a requirement of membership in the country club. If I don't want to pay dues, I should not be a member. Same goes for the United States as a whole.
If you are partner to an agreement, and you are allowed to terminate that agreement at any time of your choosing, sounds like an ostensibly voluntary agreement to me.
Whoa, are you having the exact same one on two different sites? Is that a coincidence or do BTFers have an auxiliary site to argue or something?
The breakdown is almost 100% correlated to the athlete's race.
And speaking of early computing, there's a moment in the 1968 NBC coverage where Huntley or Brinkley notes that "John Chancellor is over there with something that looks like a TV on top of a typewriter."
Well, the Rs had Jon Voight stumping in the Philly area last night as their big celebrity!
So, is that what you tell homosexual couples? Or people who disagree with the Patriot Act? Or people who have their speech suppressed? Or are drafted and sent off to die in a war they never wanted? (Obviously, there's no draft right now, but this is theoretical)
I'm sure it isn't what you do or would do (nor should you), so your argument is fundamentally dishonest. You don't *really* believe in the "do what the government says because that's part of your social contract" argument; you're just making a rhetorical flourish that nobody really believes (and you know it).
Hahahaha! Romney got A-Rod!
Obama wins popular vote and electoral vote: GOP has massive meltdown, accuse Dems of voter fraud or something. Many people say or do things that come back to haunt them in the future, especially amongst minorities. Also, they decide to blame Chris Christie. Chris Christie doesn't give a ####. Nate Silver is only the target of disgruntled people who think he hacked into the databases to make himself right.
Obama wins popular vote but loses electorals: GOP praises the Electoral College as democracy in action. Dems try usual fruitless attempts to change voting but don't get that much more success as they have had in the past (whether by proposing amendments or by trying to get compacts signed or whatever). Nate Silver moved to undisclosed location for safety, emerging only occasionally.
Obama loses popular vote but wins electoral: GOP has massive meltdown, and begins- unironically- to declare that the EC is un-American and must be destroyed. Dems change mind on EC, think it's great. GOP attempts to propose amendments or compacts or whatever to change EC are slightly more successful than Dem attempts- partially because Dems have already done some of the work- but still fall short. Nate Silver has NYPD protection around him for a few weeks.
Romney wins both popular and electoral: Nate Silver burned at the stake. Dems have massive meltdown and sue over the various voting irregularities. GOP lured into thinking the "get lots of white people" strategy still works for the long-term, possibly dooming their chances in future elections.
Electoral tie: Romney is president. Joe Biden is veep. Anarchy crosses the land. After the fires have been extinguished, Joe Biden realizes that he can "Springtime for Hitler" the administration and decides to adopt the personality that The Onion thinks he has. Nate Silver gets a ride in Biden's Trans-Am.
It would be worth the insanity to see this happen.
A Romney landslide.
Except Chris Kluwe -- and I immensely enjoyed when he absolutely DESTROYED that Maryland state delegate who thought that any pro-gay sentiments from NFL players ought to be censored. Kluwe's response to Delegate Burns
There is no contract. My parents didn't contract and even if they did, I wouldn't be bound, anymore than I'm bound by the contracts they did enter into.
Plenty is "forcing" me to be an American citizen. I'm less free to work and live in countries that haven't denominated me a citizen.
I mean, if I am a member of the local country club, and they insist that I pay my annual dues, I don't get to rage about involuntary confiscation of my property. Paying dues is a requirement of membership in the country club. If I don't want to pay dues, I should not be a member. Same goes for the United States as a whole.
The same doesn't go for the "United States as a whole." You voluntarily joined the country club and are truly free to leave. You did not voluntarily contract with the United States or any of its component parts to do anything (at least by merely being born; I suppose you could have voluntarily contracted with the US in the same way you contracted with the country club, but that's not what we're talking about.)
It's rather mind-boggling that this simple distinction is, apparently, so difficult for some to make.
George Will: 321 Romney, 217 Obama
If you know any country club that sends people to your house to collect your dues at gunpoint, let me know, okay?
Seriously, give it up. This is a terrible line of argument on your part. There's no contract. The "social contract" is a metaphor, and does not involve anything like an actual contract or voluntary consent.
That's absolutely true, and there was actually a small 20th century underground railroad that helped blacks escape situations like that.
I voted for Romney, but I don't really feel that strongly about the election (and would be surprised if Romney won). We're practically guaranteed deadlock no matter what happens, which works for me.
Though if Romney wins, I might take a few people in this thread off my ignore list just to see their reactions.
Wait a sec, in order to finally live his dream of establishing his libertarian utopia, he first needs a HANDOUT?
Man, glibertarians crack me up.
No, I tell them they should organize and renegotiate the terms of the contract. Silly.
An alternative is civil disobedience. This is the equivalent of having a sit-in at the country club to protest their not having any black members. I don't have a problem with that, but one of the tenets of civil disobedience is that when the officers of the law come to arrest you, you don't offer any resistance, and accept their authority.
Of course it's a metaphor, but it definitely involves voluntary consent. You have consented to your taxation. You can claim you didn't, just like you can claim the Earth is flat, but that doesn't make it true.
This argument would be a lot easier if we knew the definition of "social contract" the poster was using. Perhaps there's a Merriam-Webster DailyKos Edition out there that defines social contracts as "stuff that progressives pass into law, but not all that other stuff passed into law."
And Greg Anthony.
Except when Sugar Bear disagreed with the terms of the so-called contract, that's not what you told him to do. You told him to leave the country.
I didn't say I was having the same discussion. I said I was having "discussions". Things got hectic.
Of course California wound up going to Nixon, but what the hell....
Aww, that would've been cool.
I would tell them to leave the country or work through our political system to elect people who will change things to their liking (or run for office themselves). What would you tell them?
I most certainly did not. I only said that was an option.
No, I would say that a contract can be so unjust to one party that they are morally justified in tearing it up and starting afresh. But then, unlike libertarians, I don't fetishize the "right to contract". It's just one right among many.
I laughed.
---
(Thanks for the Will replies.)
As I recall, at that point NBC was way overstating Kennedy's position, based on a false projection that he had carried California.
EDIT: As stated in 3137
"A Few." Now, that is cool.
The same thing. But what I wouldn't tell them is that they implicitly agreed to this so-called social contract and thus aren't being wronged in any way.
Do you tell gay couples that one "option" they have is to leave the country, or move to another state?
If not, then please do can it, and stop pretending that you are consistent across the board. You have whims, not principles.
In 2004, when the popular vote diverged from the exit polls, some Democratic partisans cited that, not as an indication that the exit polls were inaccurate, but as evidence that the actual vote was fraudulent. I'd expect to see that a bit stronger this time, but ultimately it would be debunked pretty quickly.
Well, I only have like 6 on my ignore list. Joey B is one of them and while it would be fun to see him whine after an Obama win, he doesn't post in these threads regularly. I'd probably unignore Hutcheson and Treder temporarily as they're the most likely to have entertaining histrionics in the unlikely event Romney wins.
Not really. It's the opposite. Formal conventional agreements followed original arrangements agreed upon naturally to form societies, however elemental.
I know lots of gay couples that have moved to another state so that they can get married. I most certainly would advise it if it were important to them. Why wouldn't I? I also support people in North Korea fleeing to South Korea if they are able.
Exactly. Thanks. People who don't like their tax rates have many choices, it's weird to say that they are oppressed in some fashion, yet poor people, who have many fewer options, are demonized by the same people who complain about their taxes.
I know that recent law changes now require a fee (I think it's about $400) -- but all you have to do is go to a US embassy or consulate, sign a few forms, and voila... Unlike many countries, the US will even let you renounce without an alternate citizenship - in effect, becoming stateless.
Chris Christie = the Honey Badger
Then I have no complaints with that. What you said to Sugar Bear appeared far more aggressive than that to me.
Dan is taunting again!
Mr. SmallBall.
On the draft. Yes, coerced conscription and assignment to a fighting unit would not be accepted. However, on the earlier question of tax revenues to support government responsibilities, etc. The libertarianism I'm familiar with adopts consistent and traditional definitions. Including the definition of a community, as small as a commune or big as a nation, that requires the protection, member initiation and boundaries for continued existence of that said community. Perhaps you propose less authority to be granted to the executive branch in determining the community's alliances and interests on foreign lands. However, granting that responsibility is simply a matter of recognizing the core definition and responsibilities of a community. It need not justify or provide example to additional responsibilities at the pleasure of the governed majority or governing body.
The problem is you essentially need bipartisanship among the *most* partisan states on the left and right. Assuming it surpasses all legal hurdles, the first time the compact elects a different president than the electoral college does, the states on the losing end will revoke it for the next election (if they even go along with it for that one - there's a giant step between an agreement and actually enforcing that agreement).
I expect if it is as close as we think it will be that the losing party will launch an all-out blitz, including lawsuits, along the lines of fighting a stolen election.
If the winner has fewer than 300 EV and the popular vote is within 1%, I'll be surprised if it is settled by the end of Wednesday.
Playing with that cool toy, I'm not nearly as convinced of an Obama win as I was before. FL and NC are on the list as tossups - they'll both go to Romney and when you do that, he actually has a few more routes to victory than Obama. Yes, Obama is leading the polls by just a hair in the remaining states, but I can't see how that is 90% certain territory.
Of course not, because arguing about it is pointless because it's axiomatic to the modern liberal that people that pay into it aren't being wronged. Why? Because extracting taxes involuntarily to satiate their whims is one of the two core tenets of their philosophy. The other is interfering with voluntary associations of people to satiate their whims.
As noted.
That's a pretty low bar for taunting. I simply noted that there are two people that I no longer interact with in any way but that, if an unlikely event happens, their writing would possibly cause me to have enjoyment. I'm not one of those people that, after ignoring someone, passive-aggressively responds to the person through someone else's quoted passages or anything. We all have people that we wish to have no interaction with until the day we die.
Oh, there's voter fraud going on. In Maryland you have a version of the dream act being voted on and casinos fighting each other. The incentives are too high and threat of punishment too low. After all, the party leadership in charge supports both provisions and is likely to deflect any criticism and refuse any opportunity to prosecute.
Why would a country club have any less rights than any other business? It gets a judgment. It gives that judgment to the sheriff. He tells you either to pay up or he starts hauling furniture away.
I'm actually curious as to what the technical ruling is. Does the vote "officially" happen when the moment the vote is cast?
Though I do agree liberalism is more enthusiastic about taking your money, but I think you get more for your dollar as well (Clearly your mileage does vary).
I think he was making a joke.
For me, those people are Nancy Grace, Wendy Murphy, and John Feinstein.
I should note that the IRS does *not* need a court order to garnish wages.
I'm kidding...
IIRC, haven't several/(most?) of the big blue states signed on to EC-voiding plans? I'm pretty sure CA has and could have sworn NY has, too.
I would think that the "big states" -- who tend to have undersized Presidential powers at the moment would be cool with this except for maybe FL and OH. It's the small states (in the EV sense) that would have the most to lose... which is more an odd coalition of the VTs/RIs and WYs/AKs
We don't have a perfect one. But less tyranny is superior to more tyranny. When the government violates our freedom of speech, that we're better than most countries are is an extremely unsatisfying argument to me.
Which then segues into another Jackie interview, this time with Myrna Loy, another big fan of the Kennedys. This ad comes off a bit better, but it's still unbelievably stilted and formal.
Loy: "Does your husband want a boy or a girl?" (Jackie was then pregnant with John-John)
Last I hear, he was cold.
I think the judge repossessed his giant wicker chair.
Sorry, I'm multitasking on this big project, so may miss sarcasm at the moment!
Honest question: in this instance, you would still have to pay taxes, assuming you physically remained in the US, right?
Also, I'll probably be jumping off in the near future. But I wanted to thank everyone on this thread, which I have followed off and on (more on) over the past several months. It has been very informative and, at times, hilarious.
Cheers.
Because of the Duke lacrosse case, or does he have other odious qualities? I wouldn't mind talking with Feinstein about writing. Other than that, I'd have the same list of no-interaction people as anybody else: Carrot Top, A-Rod, Charles Manson, the usual.
That might've been because they were confused by the registration cards we recently got in the mail--the mailing the cards were attached to lists both the early voting location and the election day voting location; if you don't read it carefully, it's easy to mess that up. Horner Park was the omnibus early voting location for several (don't know how many) precincts.
You mean... Mr. Elaine Benes Kennedy Jr.
That's cool. Any schadenfreude I would experience is targeted specifically, not generally.
Non-citizen residents assuredly do have to pay US taxes.
Yeah, I'm extremely bummed about that. One of the most important musicians of the 20th century has passed! I'd rather Morty become president and Carter have lived to be 200.
I think that regardless of political persuasion, we should all be able to agree on Nancy Grace.
Which is a very fair response. We pretty much agree on the first amendment annoyance with the current administration (and other bits if I remember), even if not the weight to assign those things we do agree on.
We agree on this as well, but we don't agree on where the tryanny is coming from - taxes to gvoernment versus greater access to health care to be simplistic about it (assuming I am remembering your thoughts on those issues, if wrong sorry). That's why they have elections I suppose.
Of course I'm also glad I'm not on your ignore list.
I honestly have no idea who that is. My guess would be some talking head/pundit from some cable channel like Fox or MSNBC.
Google check ... yes this appears to be the case. Blind I will sign off on this position and seek to never interact with her. I believe you all that she is loathsome.
Yes. Nancy Grace is terrible. I'd rather spend a week with Ann Coulter and Michael Moore than spend 5 minutes listening to her.
Of course I'm also glad I'm not on your ignore list.
Why would you be?
Good god, yes. (I'm not even sure who the other two are, though the names are vaguely familiar...)
EDIT: Wait, was Murphy a prosecutor in the Duke lacrosse case? Still don't recall Feinstein.
I'd recommend you finding a clip of Nancy Grace on Youtube, but I don't to be responsible if it results in your face being melted as if the Ark of the Covenant had been opened nearby.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main