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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
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I believe he's moving in with his auntie and uncle in Bel Air.
Both Obama and Romney missed out on a chance to gain votes by denouncing her.
You can't renounce your citizenship while within the United States, only abroad. At some consulates, there's over a two-year waiting list to do so.
(Note: I'm not considering it; I've just seen news reports that it's increasingly popular to renounce U.S. citizenship, mostly for tax reasons.)
For some reason, this side discussion reminds me of the episode of the Office in which Michael Scott decides he wants to declare bankruptcy, which he attempts to do by shouting that he declares bankruptcy.
And if Romney wins, what the hell, we'll just have some more ayahuasca.
You mean... Mr. Elaine Benes Kennedy Jr.
Yeah, too bad that her gauche remarks about sponges caused her would-be future hubby to wind up with the dreaded virgin. It was kind of a drop-off from JFK Jr. to Puddy and The Wiz.
In 2004 the exit polls did not diverge significantly from the popular vote, what happened was that Drudge released raw preliminary exit polling data that seemed to indicate that Kerry was winning- that was actually corrected even before the results were final that night- but all you hear for the next 8 years is that the exit pols were wrong in 2004.
Exit polls have to be adjusted in different ways that regular polls - let's say that you poll in 10 different locations-
each location has 1000 voters (10,000 total)- but at some locations you manage to interview 50 people after voting- and another only 25- you have to adjust for that, at one location you may have a 60/40 gender split- you have to adjust for that-
let's say you interview 2% of the voters in one county and 3% of the voters in another- you have to adjust for that- Drudge began releasing polling data before any of those adjustments were made
Breaking news: He calls himself "Richie Allen".
Correct - you have to do it at a US embassy on foreign soil (though, I think that's only if you're going "stateless" -- if you've got another citizenship and have worked out the visa issues, I think you can do it in the US... but I imagine it's awfully hard to get a foreign travel visa TO the US while you're still a US citizen).
As far the popularity - my recollection from a news article when the Facebook dude renounced his is that the number is about ~1700 annually... up from just a few hundred years back.
How about if we put her on a space station alone and she's forced to watch Casey Anthony live her life as a free person via satellite television?
In a libertarian society, there's always the issue who is going to provide for 'public' services. And what would be an equitble fee for it. You have to answer that before you take any potential community seriously.
We all know a truly libertarian community isn't happening, so the idea of whether to take one seriously or not misses the point. The question is how does libertarianism inform our views and decisions within the context of our current political system. I'm not a libertarian, but I understand the arguments for limited government and the dangers of unintended consequences. To me, that means that any new government intervention into the private sector should have a very high bar to pass before being enacted (and likewise, any existing government intervention needs to have a compelling reason for its continued existence).
And you can't do it to avoid future taxes (that is, not taxes already owed, but taxes you might owe down the road) -- and under many circumstances, it's an irrebuttable presumption that you're expatriating to avoid taxes.
I don't believe it would be possible without committing a felony. The person would have to omit their U.S. citizenship in their visa application.
Honestly, a ton of this all -- both the liberal conspiracies about stolen vote counts AND the acorn/voter fraud nonsense could all be made moot if we'd just put a system in place to make all election officials non-partisan/non-elected/etc... Take it out of the state SoS office if you like, have retired judges or let each state party pick one official, together with some system to have a 3rd person... whatever.
Doesn't matter if it's a Republican griping about David Orr in Cook County or Democratic griping about John Husted in Ohio -- get the clearly partisan hacks as far away from any election oversight and control as possible and voila.
Probably... I just have this vague recollection about a friend who held Israeli citizenship claiming he could do it in the states back when we were arguing about the Eduardo Facebook thing... He might well have been crazy - he was a little weird, but also a pretty good lawyer.
Well I and many others do, I don't know that everyone knows this.
For me (and I don't speak for anyone else and am not a Libertarian) the state and corporations are both my allies and my enemies. I want both to be playing off each other as much as possible and both limited when not needed. I object to both the Libertarian Government = Evil, Corporations/Private Sector = Good and to the Communist Government = Good, Corporations/Private Sector = Evil (both philosophies simplified for arguments sake, not intended to be a true description of either ideology).
Most Liberals think Corporations both evil and good, and Government evil and good. When they team up it is pretty close to pure evil though. And when either runs amok it is very bad as well.
For that matter, given the "nobody asked for my input, I didn't approve, they're doing it anyway" approach by some libertarians here to many federal government issues brought up in this thread and others, is the basic structure of representative government inherently unlibertarian?
This is an oxymoron. The Libya outrage has taught me that our embassies and consulates are on U.S. sovereign soil, not foreign soil.
(If you try to sit), I’ll tax your seat,
(If you get too cold), I’ll tax the heat,
(If you take a walk), I’ll tax your feet.
TAXMAN!!!
It was ok, they spoke jive.
If you prefer, you can take my relationship with my bank and the debt I owe them. If I don't pay, they will come with a court order (at gunpoint!).
Elections are not hurt by exit polling, though clearly people were upset by the disconnect between exit polls and reality.
I would love to see some real national rules around voting. The current patchwork is just silly and inefficient. It should be easier to register and vote, and the results should be much more accurate and reported faster than they are. Heck I would even sign up for a Voter ID scenario (with certain allowances) in exchange for a halt to much of this nonsense and some consistent early and mail in voting options nationally.
Voluntary arrangement.
It was 2004, Kerry, Ohio.
I think the "you're free to leave" argument is being mischaracterized. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the people making it are saying something like "if you don't like our system, you can change it through the democratic process. If you can't get enough people to buy into your views, you can also opt out if you feel that the tax system is oppressive and unfair. No one is forcing you to stay here."
This is just a description of the political system, though, not a useful or interesting statement. The question is, what do *you* actually believe in or stand for. When gay people complain about their inability to get married, do you tell them they're wrong to feel aggrieved because the majority of the state or country disagrees with them, and you won't support their efforts to change things?
Needless to say, Muslim support for Republicans has not remained at high levels.
(Also, anyone who is interested should REALLY look up the Daily Show thing about Nancy Grace and the Duke scandal)
How is it different than your arrangement with the American polity?
61% of RVs in Cuyahoga County (the big Cleveland-centric OH Dem stronghold) voted in 2008....they passed 50% at 2:30 PM today and the county Dem chair has hopes of hitting 70% by the time polls close.
Nate is paid to drive traffic. Getting things right helps drive traffic, but if he continues to get the eyeballs (whether through good writing, analysis, or whatever) he will find gainful employment no matter his accuracy.
She's a former prosecutor who hosts her own TV show that focuses on legal commentary and current ongoing (high-profile) court cases. Her style is intense and confrontational, and to say that she believes she's infallible would be a massive understatement. Regardless of the facts in a given case, she has no problem at all with attacking the accused and calling them guilty before the trial even begins.
She was absolutely insufferable with her coverage of the Duke lacrosse rape allegations, and I gather that she really became popular during the Casey Anthony trial.
I didn't agree to the things the American polity has obligated me to do. You did agree to enter into an agreement with the bank and pay them money.
I agree with this in principle, but shouldn't someone have noticed this before hand?
What state does she live in? Do they have a ballot initiative process?
Cuyahoga County has purged over 100,000 RVs from the voter rolls since 2011, so percentage comparisons don't tell us much. Even with the same number of voters, 2012 turnout will appear to be higher on a percentage basis.
Not if one assumes that she had signed confessions from the students and videos of them both plotting the rape and then doing the rape.
And also a video of them conspiring to drop the cone of silence - you know, to enact that fraternity, lacrosse code where people see others raping women but since they all play lacrosse together, everyone shuts up about it.
ditto
Although we have no idea how many of those RVs were "LVs" in the past election...
Pretty much every person born in every country in the last hundred years or so* is in the same boat. Of course our gilded cages are MUCH nicer now than they were back then, and in exchange we do get freedom from some things that they dealt with back in the day. But turning back the clock is not really an option.
* Time frame completly guessed at. I suspect it is longer, but whatever.
Let's go to the video!
I think she first got big during the Natalee Holloway hubub, or maybe it was JonBenet Ramsey.
Regardless, she's a horrible shrieking harpy
Wow, you actually *spoke* to her? That's some serious cojones right there.
That's not an argument. What exactly about my interaction with the bank constitutes an agreement that my interaction with the United States does not?
If I walk into a bank office, I am subject to the rules and regulations of that bank. If I walk across the border to Canada, I am subject to the rules and regulations of Canada. Or would that also not constitute agreement?
(Note that I am assuming on the basis of earlier posts by you that you are not an anarchist, saying that all forms of authority are inherently wrong).
The best was Bob Shrum. For those not aware of the story, based on the exit polling, Shrum told John Kerry "Let me be the first to call you Mr. President."
He also has called Grace "a nostril-flaring, hyperbole-spewing, man-hating, crime-busting shrew." Sounds about right.
First it was Jacques Barzun, then Carter. Centenarians aren't what they used to be when I was wearing onions on my belt.
She lives in Atlanta. I will add this to my platform when I run for office without trying in 2014.
It doesn't matter. Turnout = voters divided by RV.
From the script though, it actually looks like you got a word in edgewise!
Regardless, she's a horrible shrieking harpy
Hopefully, she'll someday be involved in a disappearing blond case in another role.
I didn't agree to the things the American polity has obligated me to do. You did agree to enter into an agreement with the bank and pay them money.
That's not an argument. What exactly about my interaction with the bank constitutes an agreement that my interaction with the United States does not?
If I walk into a bank office, I am subject to the rules and regulations of that bank. If I walk across the border to Canada, I am subject to the rules and regulations of Canada. Or would that also not constitute agreement?
As sort of a moderate libertarian, I get the argument that there are functions of government necessary for the protection of a free society. I don't desire anarchy. My problem with the "contract" argument is that it can be - and has been - used to justify just about anything a government wishes to do. I think a lot of libertarians go a little too berserk over taxes. But they're absolutely right in principle. Taxes should be something done as small as possible to do what is necessary, and only because it is necessary. Not something that can be done as much as the government wants for any reason whatsoever.
IOW, I think the election is getting to you all and you're all going a little overboard. It is absolutely not too early to have a drink.
Bob Shrum goes in my bucket with Dick Morris for people I would not believe if they said water was wet. I would consider Dick Morris even worse but for the fact he got involved in a sexual escapade (foot fetish?) and that both makes him a bit more interesting* and gets a bit of sympathy because I don't care what people do on their own time and don't think they should be punished for it.
* As a person it makes him less two dimensional. Get your mind out of the gutter, I mean seriously yuck.
* As a person it makes him less two dimensional. Get your mind out of the gutter, I mean seriously yuck.
You'd better be wearing shoes.
The raison d'etre of the punditocracy we have now. Nate's in, if he wants to be.
.
I don't drink*. Though I admit it is tempting sometimes, and right now is one of those times. Still with my family issues with alcohol probably best to stay on the straight and narrow.
* I have had alcohol before, including occasional Hard Ciders (most recently a few years back). I even got a bit tipsy once. Living large in the Mouse House that day. And I used to bartend, so I am not anti-alcohol.
Note: My spelling in this post was such that it looked like I was in fact drinking. Maybe it is time to go home.
Glen and I disagree. The one unifying thing about the people I discuss politics with is that they are angry.
Cigar? Hooker? 3 mile run? Whatever calms you down, man.
The first and last.
On that dubious note... Any exit polling out yet?
Have a good time and hug someone. Preferably a loved one but, if they're not available, love the one you're with.
This ultimately boils down to a question of legitimacy. The libertarians don't see government as legitimate authority. I see government as legitimate authority, assuming it is 'government by consent of the governed" (which does not mean government with consent of each individual member of the governed). That much is clear. I am interested in why they see government as fundamentally illegitimate. They appear to hold contracts as the purest form of social interaction, which is why I am pressing that analogy (though I am a devotee of Rousseau).
I just don't see a difference in the following:
* I need some food, so I take out a bank loan.
* I need some food, so I take a dangerous job that will hurt my health.
* I need a place to sleep, so I rent a bed in a dirty flophouse.
* I need a place to sleep, so I buy property of which the ultimate title is held by the government. The government in turn requires me to pay property taxes.
Libertarians see the first three as perfectly legitimate arrangements, while the fourth is illegitimate and coercive. I don't see why.
The whole thing is dumb, but really? Obama is many things, but angry? Aloof (sure). Introverted (maybe). Ivory tower, elitist socialist from Kenya (Not, but whatever). Muslim (No but hey go for it). But angry? Where on Earth is that coming from? Can't you just make #### up that is just a bit more in tune with reality?
Taxes are merely symptomatic of the broader and more troubling modern liberal tenet -- that they are free to interfere with any arrangement as much as they want to accomplish whatever they want.
Hey, don't disparage Glenn Beck's "angrydar."
And now I am off :)
I went through three red pens today, Bob. :)
His deep seated hatred for white people. Duh.
It's funny because the defining feature of modern Dittohead conservatism is anger. Moreso than hating America and wanting to undermine our scientific advancement for the benefit of our enemies, even.
Beck thinking that Obama comes across as angry is letting slip a lot about Beck and nothing about Obama...
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