Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 33 of 114 pages ‹ First  < 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 >  Last ›
   3201. Davo Dozier (Mastroianni) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4294949)
What is the update on the ominous black panther who is opening doors for old white ladies in Philly?

I believe he's moving in with his auntie and uncle in Bel Air.
   3202. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4294950)

I think that regardless of political persuasion, we should all be able to agree on Nancy Grace.


Both Obama and Romney missed out on a chance to gain votes by denouncing her.
   3203. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4294951)
Honest question: in this instance, you would still have to pay taxes, assuming you physically remained in the US, right?

You can't renounce your citizenship while within the United States, only abroad. At some consulates, there's over a two-year waiting list to do so.

(Note: I'm not considering it; I've just seen news reports that it's increasingly popular to renounce U.S. citizenship, mostly for tax reasons.)
   3204. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4294952)
never mind
   3205. GregD Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4294953)
For me, those people are Nancy Grace, Wendy Murphy, and John Feinstein.
I have no idea who Wendy Murphy is but based on your selection of Nancy Grace and John Feinstein, Ray, I am pretty sure I am going to be willing to sign on blind to her inclusion.
   3206. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4294954)
I believe you all that she is loathsome.

For some reason, this side discussion reminds me of the episode of the Office in which Michael Scott decides he wants to declare bankruptcy, which he attempts to do by shouting that he declares bankruptcy.
   3207. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4294957)
the crew took some swigs of ayahuasca, a psychoactive brew used widely among Amazon basin indigenous people. At least one thing was clear, they said: Obama should defeat Republican Mitt Romney on Tuesday

And if Romney wins, what the hell, we'll just have some more ayahuasca.
   3208. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4294958)
Got an update on the ominous black panther: The update is that he is single handedly swinging the election for Obama.
   3209. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4294959)
See, here's the ultimate problem with the social contract thing. While one can argue we implicitly agree to pay taxes, get drafted to fight in wars, etc, I can in no way accept that we implicitly agreed to not send Nancy Grace in a rocket ship into the sun.
   3210. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4294960)
Murphy was probably one of the furies, or ancillary harpies, in the Duke LAX case, though I didn't pay much attention to the cable blabfests surrounding that atrocity.
   3211. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4294961)
(Jackie was then pregnant with John-John)

You mean... Mr. Elaine Benes Kennedy Jr.


Yeah, too bad that her gauche remarks about sponges caused her would-be future hubby to wind up with the dreaded virgin. It was kind of a drop-off from JFK Jr. to Puddy and The Wiz.
   3212. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4294962)
   3213. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4294963)
In 2004, when the popular vote diverged from the exit polls, some Democratic partisans cited that, not as an indication that the exit polls were inaccurate, but as evidence that the actual vote was fraudulent. I'd expect to see that a bit stronger this time, but ultimately it would be debunked pretty quickly.


In 2004 the exit polls did not diverge significantly from the popular vote, what happened was that Drudge released raw preliminary exit polling data that seemed to indicate that Kerry was winning- that was actually corrected even before the results were final that night- but all you hear for the next 8 years is that the exit pols were wrong in 2004.


Exit polls have to be adjusted in different ways that regular polls - let's say that you poll in 10 different locations-
each location has 1000 voters (10,000 total)- but at some locations you manage to interview 50 people after voting- and another only 25- you have to adjust for that, at one location you may have a 60/40 gender split- you have to adjust for that-
let's say you interview 2% of the voters in one county and 3% of the voters in another- you have to adjust for that- Drudge began releasing polling data before any of those adjustments were made
   3214. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4294964)
The weird thing about Nancy Grace is that I don't know a single person who claims to watch her or to even be able to tolerate her. Yet she's been on TV for years. Who are the people keeping her on the air?
   3215. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4294965)
Got an update on the ominous black panther: The update is that he is single handedly swinging the election for Obama.

Breaking news: He calls himself "Richie Allen".
   3216. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:17 PM (#4294966)
I'd pay higher taxes for ten years if it would send Nancy Grace in a rocket ship into the sun. If you could somehow rig it up so a HAL-like supercomputer cut off her cord during a space walk, leaving her to float aimlessly and eternally through the depths of space, I'd pay 20.
   3217. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4294967)
Serious question: Who is Nancy Grace, and what's her significance?
   3218. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4294968)

You can't renounce your citizenship while within the United States, only abroad. At some consulates, there's over a two-year waiting list to do so.

(Note: I'm not considering it; I've just seen news reports that it's increasingly popular to renounce U.S. citizenship, mostly for tax reasons.)


Correct - you have to do it at a US embassy on foreign soil (though, I think that's only if you're going "stateless" -- if you've got another citizenship and have worked out the visa issues, I think you can do it in the US... but I imagine it's awfully hard to get a foreign travel visa TO the US while you're still a US citizen).

As far the popularity - my recollection from a news article when the Facebook dude renounced his is that the number is about ~1700 annually... up from just a few hundred years back.
   3219. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4294969)
I wonder if Nate factored in the November 6th Surprise: The Ominous-Looking Black Panther.
   3220. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4294970)
I'd pay higher taxes for ten years if it would send Nancy Grace in a rocket ship into the sun. If you could somehow rig it up so a HAL-like supercomputer cut off her cord during a space walk, leaving her to float aimlessly and eternally through the depths of space, I'd pay 20.


How about if we put her on a space station alone and she's forced to watch Casey Anthony live her life as a free person via satellite television?
   3221. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4294971)

In a libertarian society, there's always the issue who is going to provide for 'public' services. And what would be an equitble fee for it. You have to answer that before you take any potential community seriously.

We all know a truly libertarian community isn't happening, so the idea of whether to take one seriously or not misses the point. The question is how does libertarianism inform our views and decisions within the context of our current political system. I'm not a libertarian, but I understand the arguments for limited government and the dangers of unintended consequences. To me, that means that any new government intervention into the private sector should have a very high bar to pass before being enacted (and likewise, any existing government intervention needs to have a compelling reason for its continued existence).
   3222. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4294972)
Done voting. A bit chaotic on the UES but only 45 minutes. Not a single frightening black man offered to hold a door open for me.
   3223. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4294973)
Confirmed that Nate layered the black panther into his model at 8:34am this morning.
   3224. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4294975)
I know that recent law changes now require a fee (I think it's about $400) -- but all you have to do is go to a US embassy or consulate, sign a few forms, and voila... Unlike many countries, the US will even let you renounce without an alternate citizenship - in effect, becoming stateless.
You have to go to a US embassy or consulate... in a foreign country. (Yes, that's redundant, as there aren't too many U.S. embassies in the U.S., but I wanted to make that clear: you have to leave the country first. You can't just renounce citizenship.)

And you can't do it to avoid future taxes (that is, not taxes already owed, but taxes you might owe down the road) -- and under many circumstances, it's an irrebuttable presumption that you're expatriating to avoid taxes.
   3225. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4294976)
As far the popularity - my recollection from a news article when the Facebook dude renounced his is that the number is about ~1700 annually... up from just a few hundred years back.
True patriots.
   3226. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4294977)
(though, I think that's only if you're going "stateless" -- if you've got another citizenship and have worked out the visa issues, I think you can do it in the US... but I imagine it's awfully hard to get a foreign travel visa TO the US while you're still a US citizen).

I don't believe it would be possible without committing a felony. The person would have to omit their U.S. citizenship in their visa application.
   3227. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4294979)


In 2004 the exit polls did not diverge significantly from the popular vote, what happened was that Drudge released raw preliminary exit polling data that seemed to indicate that Kerry was winning- that was actually corrected even before the results were final that night- but all you hear for the next 8 years is that the exit pols were wrong in 2004.


Exit polls have to be adjusted in different ways that regular polls - let's say that you poll in 10 different locations-
each location has 1000 voters (10,000 total)- but at some locations you manage to interview 50 people after voting- and another only 25- you have to adjust for that, at one location you may have a 60/40 gender split- you have to adjust for that-
let's say you interview 2% of the voters in one county and 3% of the voters in another- you have to adjust for that- Drudge began releasing polling data before any of those adjustments were made


Honestly, a ton of this all -- both the liberal conspiracies about stolen vote counts AND the acorn/voter fraud nonsense could all be made moot if we'd just put a system in place to make all election officials non-partisan/non-elected/etc... Take it out of the state SoS office if you like, have retired judges or let each state party pick one official, together with some system to have a 3rd person... whatever.

Doesn't matter if it's a Republican griping about David Orr in Cook County or Democratic griping about John Husted in Ohio -- get the clearly partisan hacks as far away from any election oversight and control as possible and voila.
   3228. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4294980)
If it means a legitimate, registered voter actually been refused the right to cast a ballot, it hasn't occurred in a long time and won't occur today.

Right, someone who can't afford to wait 7 hours in line doesn't deserve to vote, and their leaving doesn't mean that they were denied the chance to vote! Lazy slacker poors.

You're choosing someone who is going to preside over a $4 trillion budget, who's going to be controlling 20% of the nation's wealth and throw 3 million people in jail, and you think that investing a few hours in this process is somehow too much to ask? Depending on who they vote for, it's going to cost people a lot more than a few hours' worth of their wages.
Indeed. I say, let's get serious about all this. Take every dozen people in line, put them in a small, closed room, then throw three blank ballots into the air. Only those who really want to vote, vote. Skin in the game, literally.
   3229. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4294982)
It's funny, but I randomly happen to be reading a book about expert predictions and why they're usually laughably wrong and why we still have an insatiable appetite for them despite how wrong they usually are. It definitely makes me think about my perception of this election and how I react to opinions of certainty about what will happen. It's probably why I can't get comfortable about how much a favorite Obama is despite the evidence that he probably is.
   3230. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4294984)
(though, I think that's only if you're going "stateless" -- if you've got another citizenship and have worked out the visa issues, I think you can do it in the US... but I imagine it's awfully hard to get a foreign travel visa TO the US while you're still a US citizen).


I don't believe it would be possible without committing a felony. The person would have to omit their U.S. citizenship in their visa application.


Probably... I just have this vague recollection about a friend who held Israeli citizenship claiming he could do it in the states back when we were arguing about the Eduardo Facebook thing... He might well have been crazy - he was a little weird, but also a pretty good lawyer.
   3231. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4294985)
Which election was effed up by the exit polling? Was it in 2000 that liberals got moist over the exit polling that showed the Goreacle to be freely in the lead? Or was it 2004 with the windsurfing Kerry.
   3232. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:27 PM (#4294986)
Why would a country club have any less rights than any other business? It gets a judgment. It gives that judgment to the sheriff. He tells you either to pay up or he starts hauling furniture away.
A judgment for what? You didn't sign up for membership. If it just gratuitously declared you to be a member, there's no contract and no cause of action.
   3233. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:27 PM (#4294987)
We all know a truly libertarian community isn't happening


Well I and many others do, I don't know that everyone knows this.

To me, that means that any new government intervention into the private sector should have a very high bar to pass before being enacted (and likewise, any existing government intervention needs to have a compelling reason for its continued existence).


For me (and I don't speak for anyone else and am not a Libertarian) the state and corporations are both my allies and my enemies. I want both to be playing off each other as much as possible and both limited when not needed. I object to both the Libertarian Government = Evil, Corporations/Private Sector = Good and to the Communist Government = Good, Corporations/Private Sector = Evil (both philosophies simplified for arguments sake, not intended to be a true description of either ideology).

Most Liberals think Corporations both evil and good, and Government evil and good. When they team up it is pretty close to pure evil though. And when either runs amok it is very bad as well.
   3234. villageidiom Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4294988)
The definition you use - they take taxes from me at gunpoint - applies to every modern government in the world as far as I know, so really your complaint is with all modern government and not really liberalism.
Is there a coherent argument for a libertarian-structured society that does not involve taking taxes at gunpoint? So, for example, national defense... How is that paid for, voluntary donations? Or are we quibbling on federal vs. local, that states should fund federal defense, and individuals would have taxes collected at gunpoint from state militia rather than federal? Or would you just strike "provide for the common defense" from the Preamble because it is somehow unconstitutional?

For that matter, given the "nobody asked for my input, I didn't approve, they're doing it anyway" approach by some libertarians here to many federal government issues brought up in this thread and others, is the basic structure of representative government inherently unlibertarian?
   3235. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4294989)
Not that I'm changing my opinion about whether Nate Silver takes a big old whack to the credibility if Romney wins, but just saw that 538 accounted for an amazing 20% of NYT web traffic yesterday... going back to Nate's dustup with Scarborough, and the resulting NYT "naughty, naughty - that's unbecoming of a NYT employee" -- I think it's awfully clear who wants/needs who more.
   3236. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4294991)
you have to do it at a US embassy on foreign soil

This is an oxymoron. The Libya outrage has taught me that our embassies and consulates are on U.S. sovereign soil, not foreign soil.
   3237. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4294992)
And you can't do it to avoid future taxes (that is, not taxes already owed, but taxes you might owe down the road) -- and under many circumstances, it's an irrebuttable presumption that you're expatriating to avoid taxes.

(If you try to sit), I’ll tax your seat,
(If you get too cold), I’ll tax the heat,
(If you take a walk), I’ll tax your feet.

TAXMAN!!!
   3238. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4294993)
What is the update on the ominous black panther who is opening doors for old white ladies in Philly?

It was ok, they spoke jive.
   3239. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4294994)
A judgment for what? You didn't sign up for membership. If it just gratuitously declared you to be a member, there's no contract and no cause of action.


If you prefer, you can take my relationship with my bank and the debt I owe them. If I don't pay, they will come with a court order (at gunpoint!).
   3240. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4294996)
Which election was effed up by the exit polling?


Elections are not hurt by exit polling, though clearly people were upset by the disconnect between exit polls and reality.

could all be made moot if we'd just put a system in place to make all election officials non-partisan/non-elected/etc


I would love to see some real national rules around voting. The current patchwork is just silly and inefficient. It should be easier to register and vote, and the results should be much more accurate and reported faster than they are. Heck I would even sign up for a Voter ID scenario (with certain allowances) in exchange for a halt to much of this nonsense and some consistent early and mail in voting options nationally.
   3241. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4294997)
If you prefer, you can take my relationship with my bank and the debt I owe them. If I don't pay, they will come with a court order (at gunpoint!).

Voluntary arrangement.
   3242. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4294998)
Which election was effed up by the exit polling? Was it in 2000 that liberals got moist over the exit polling that showed the Goreacle to be freely in the lead? Or was it 2004 with the windsurfing Kerry.


It was 2004, Kerry, Ohio.
   3243. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4294999)

I think the "you're free to leave" argument is being mischaracterized. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the people making it are saying something like "if you don't like our system, you can change it through the democratic process. If you can't get enough people to buy into your views, you can also opt out if you feel that the tax system is oppressive and unfair. No one is forcing you to stay here."

This is just a description of the political system, though, not a useful or interesting statement. The question is, what do *you* actually believe in or stand for. When gay people complain about their inability to get married, do you tell them they're wrong to feel aggrieved because the majority of the state or country disagrees with them, and you won't support their efforts to change things?
   3244. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4295000)
Rany Jazayerli has a good (and long) article on politics, discussing the relationship between Muslims and the Republican party:

My dad, who had just obtained his American citizenship in 1978, became a reliable supporter of the Republican Party, both with his ballot and occasionally with his checkbook. He wasn’t alone. Most immigrant Muslims to America – once they obtained their citizenship – joined the Reagan Revolution.


Needless to say, Muslim support for Republicans has not remained at high levels.
   3245. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4295001)
OMG, EXIT POLLS ARE COMING! LET'S JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS!


(Also, anyone who is interested should REALLY look up the Daily Show thing about Nancy Grace and the Duke scandal)
   3246. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4295002)

Voluntary arrangement.


How is it different than your arrangement with the American polity?
   3247. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4295003)
Tea leaves...

61% of RVs in Cuyahoga County (the big Cleveland-centric OH Dem stronghold) voted in 2008....they passed 50% at 2:30 PM today and the county Dem chair has hopes of hitting 70% by the time polls close.
   3248. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4295004)
538 accounted for an amazing 20% of NYT web traffic yesterday


Nate is paid to drive traffic. Getting things right helps drive traffic, but if he continues to get the eyeballs (whether through good writing, analysis, or whatever) he will find gainful employment no matter his accuracy.
   3249. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4295005)
The networks have announced that they won't talk about a state's exit polls until that state has finished voting entirely.
   3250. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4295006)
Serious question: Who is Nancy Grace, and what's her significance?

She's a former prosecutor who hosts her own TV show that focuses on legal commentary and current ongoing (high-profile) court cases. Her style is intense and confrontational, and to say that she believes she's infallible would be a massive understatement. Regardless of the facts in a given case, she has no problem at all with attacking the accused and calling them guilty before the trial even begins.

She was absolutely insufferable with her coverage of the Duke lacrosse rape allegations, and I gather that she really became popular during the Casey Anthony trial.
   3251. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4295007)
How is it different than your arrangement with the American polity?

I didn't agree to the things the American polity has obligated me to do. You did agree to enter into an agreement with the bank and pay them money.
   3252. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4295008)
A Philadelphia court judge ordered poll workers to cover up a mural of President Barack Obama that was inside a polling place at a local school.


I agree with this in principle, but shouldn't someone have noticed this before hand?
   3253. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4295009)
EDIT: Wait, was Murphy a prosecutor in the Duke lacrosse case? Still don't recall Feinstein.
Yes, if by "prosecutor" you mean "odious talking head on television who once was a real life prosecutor but failed at it and decided to prosecute them on television," then yes.
   3254. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4295010)
I'd like to say that, the more I think about it, the more hilarious the image in my head of Joe Biden driving Nate Silver to safety in his Trans-Am during a Electoral-Tie Post-Apocalyptic Hellscape seems to become. I'm pretty sure that Biden's license plate in my most recent mental image was "AMTRAK4EVER"
   3255. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4295011)
See, here's the ultimate problem with the social contract thing. While one can argue we implicitly agree to pay taxes, get drafted to fight in wars, etc, I can in no way accept that we implicitly agreed to not send Nancy Grace in a rocket ship into the sun.


What state does she live in? Do they have a ballot initiative process?
   3256. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4295012)
Why have we not heard a peep from our fellow vote-suppression liberals about how many people in the Hurricane Sandy states will have a tough time voting today if they are able to vote at all? Is it because these people are in solidly blue states? If they were in swing states, would our fellow liberals be whining that so many people realistically may not be able to vote today?
Ah, projection.
   3257. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4295013)
61% of RVs in Cuyahoga County (the big Cleveland-centric OH Dem stronghold) voted in 2008....they passed 50% at 2:30 PM today and the county Dem chair has hopes of hitting 70% by the time polls close.

Cuyahoga County has purged over 100,000 RVs from the voter rolls since 2011, so percentage comparisons don't tell us much. Even with the same number of voters, 2012 turnout will appear to be higher on a percentage basis.
   3258. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4295014)
She was absolutely insufferable with her coverage of the Duke lacrosse rape allegations


Not if one assumes that she had signed confessions from the students and videos of them both plotting the rape and then doing the rape.

And also a video of them conspiring to drop the cone of silence - you know, to enact that fraternity, lacrosse code where people see others raping women but since they all play lacrosse together, everyone shuts up about it.

   3259. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4295015)
Philadelphia court judge ordered poll workers to cover up a mural of President Barack Obama that was inside a polling place at a local school.


I agree with this in principle, but shouldn't someone have noticed this before hand?


ditto
   3260. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4295016)

Cuyahoga County has purged over 100,000 RVs from the voter rolls since 2011, so percentage comparisons don't tell us much.


Although we have no idea how many of those RVs were "LVs" in the past election...
   3261. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4295019)
I didn't agree to the things the American polity has obligated me to do.


Pretty much every person born in every country in the last hundred years or so* is in the same boat. Of course our gilded cages are MUCH nicer now than they were back then, and in exchange we do get freedom from some things that they dealt with back in the day. But turning back the clock is not really an option.

* Time frame completly guessed at. I suspect it is longer, but whatever.
   3262. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4295020)
   3263. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4295021)
Needless to say, Muslim support for Republicans has not remained at high levels.
You mean because we now have a Muslim Democratic president?
   3264. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4295022)
I have appeared twice on Nancy Grace's show, in the reporter-giving-background role. She has the interview style of a steamroller.

Let's go to the video!
NANCY GRACE: ... But first, breaking news tonight. Two children missing from the home where their grandparents and uncle have been discovered dead. An Amber Alert in effect tonight for 18-month-old Brian Cervantes, his 3- year-old little sister, Jennifer.

Tonight, in Philadelphia, defense attorney Joe Lawless with us; in San Francisco, defense attorney Daniel Horowitz; here in New York, psychotherapist Dr. Robi Ludwig; and in Phoenix, Arizona, reporter Gold Star.

Let`s go straight to the reporter. Gold Star, explain to me how these kids went missing, the family wiped out.

GOLD STAR: It began late last night, about 10:30, two 911 hang-up calls. Maricopa County sheriff deputies arrive on the scene. They look inside. There`s three dead bodies, one on the couch, two on the living room floor.

Unfortunately, they have no idea what`s gone on. They just have victims. About 1:30 in the morning, the mother comes home. That would be the daughter of the two older victims and the brother of the...

GRACE: Oh, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait. Let me get this family tree straight.

GOLD STAR: Sorry.
   3265. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:44 PM (#4295023)
She was absolutely insufferable with her coverage of the Duke lacrosse rape allegations, and I gather that she really became popular started during the Casey Anthony trial.


I think she first got big during the Natalee Holloway hubub, or maybe it was JonBenet Ramsey.

Regardless, she's a horrible shrieking harpy
   3266. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:44 PM (#4295024)
Anyone else avoid any sort of prognositcation/exit polling/conjecture about who is voting and who isn't until they actually start counting the votes today?
   3267. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4295025)
I have appeared twice on Nancy Grace's show, in the reporter-giving-background role. She has the interview style of a steamroller.

Wow, you actually *spoke* to her? That's some serious cojones right there.
   3268. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4295027)
Wow, you actually *spoke* to her? That's some serious cojones right there.
More like, she talked at me. But occasionally asked a question.
   3269. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4295028)

I didn't agree to the things the American polity has obligated me to do. You did agree to enter into an agreement with the bank and pay them money.


That's not an argument. What exactly about my interaction with the bank constitutes an agreement that my interaction with the United States does not?

If I walk into a bank office, I am subject to the rules and regulations of that bank. If I walk across the border to Canada, I am subject to the rules and regulations of Canada. Or would that also not constitute agreement?

(Note that I am assuming on the basis of earlier posts by you that you are not an anarchist, saying that all forms of authority are inherently wrong).

   3270. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4295031)
It was 2004, Kerry, Ohio.

The best was Bob Shrum. For those not aware of the story, based on the exit polling, Shrum told John Kerry "Let me be the first to call you Mr. President."
   3271. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4295032)
Best take on Nancy came from, of all people, Tucker Carlson: "Nancy Grace fails the Ultimate Power Test. If you gave her ultimate power, how many dead people would there be? Many."

He also has called Grace "a nostril-flaring, hyperbole-spewing, man-hating, crime-busting shrew." Sounds about right.
   3272. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4295033)
I'd rather Morty become president and Carter have lived to be 200.


First it was Jacques Barzun, then Carter. Centenarians aren't what they used to be when I was wearing onions on my belt.
   3273. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4295035)
BDC Jr. reports long, long voting lines in Austin, Tex., despite the Senate and Presidential races here being foregone conclusions. Good for Austin!
   3274. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4295036)
I didn't agree to the things the American polity has obligated me to do.
There's a support group for that. It's called Everybody, and we meet at the bar.
   3275. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4295037)
See, here's the ultimate problem with the social contract thing. While one can argue we implicitly agree to pay taxes, get drafted to fight in wars, etc, I can in no way accept that we implicitly agreed to not send Nancy Grace in a rocket ship into the sun.


What state does she live in? Do they have a ballot initiative process?


She lives in Atlanta. I will add this to my platform when I run for office without trying in 2014.
   3276. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4295038)
Although we have no idea how many of those RVs were "LVs" in the past election...

It doesn't matter. Turnout = voters divided by RV.
   3277. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4295040)
More like, she talked at me. But occasionally asked a question.

From the script though, it actually looks like you got a word in edgewise!
   3278. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4295041)
I think she first got big during the Natalee Holloway hubub, or maybe it was JonBenet Ramsey.

Regardless, she's a horrible shrieking harpy


Hopefully, she'll someday be involved in a disappearing blond case in another role.


I didn't agree to the things the American polity has obligated me to do. You did agree to enter into an agreement with the bank and pay them money.



That's not an argument. What exactly about my interaction with the bank constitutes an agreement that my interaction with the United States does not?

If I walk into a bank office, I am subject to the rules and regulations of that bank. If I walk across the border to Canada, I am subject to the rules and regulations of Canada. Or would that also not constitute agreement?


As sort of a moderate libertarian, I get the argument that there are functions of government necessary for the protection of a free society. I don't desire anarchy. My problem with the "contract" argument is that it can be - and has been - used to justify just about anything a government wishes to do. I think a lot of libertarians go a little too berserk over taxes. But they're absolutely right in principle. Taxes should be something done as small as possible to do what is necessary, and only because it is necessary. Not something that can be done as much as the government wants for any reason whatsoever.

IOW, I think the election is getting to you all and you're all going a little overboard. It is absolutely not too early to have a drink.
   3279. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4295042)
The best was Bob Shrum.


Bob Shrum goes in my bucket with Dick Morris for people I would not believe if they said water was wet. I would consider Dick Morris even worse but for the fact he got involved in a sexual escapade (foot fetish?) and that both makes him a bit more interesting* and gets a bit of sympathy because I don't care what people do on their own time and don't think they should be punished for it.

* As a person it makes him less two dimensional. Get your mind out of the gutter, I mean seriously yuck.
   3280. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4295043)
Bob Shrum goes in my bucket with Dick Morris for people I would not believe if they said water was wet. I would consider Dick Morris even worse but for the fact he got involved in a sexual escapade (foot fetish?) and that both makes him a bit more interesting* and gets a bit of sympathy because I don't care what people do on their own time and don't think they should be punished for it.

* As a person it makes him less two dimensional. Get your mind out of the gutter, I mean seriously yuck.


You'd better be wearing shoes.
   3281. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:56 PM (#4295045)
Getting things right helps drive traffic, but if he continues to get the eyeballs (whether through good writing, analysis, or whatever) he will find gainful employment no matter his accuracy.

The raison d'etre of the punditocracy we have now. Nate's in, if he wants to be.
   3282. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:57 PM (#4295046)
Noted historian, theologian, and television personality Glen Beck invites holy retribution on America if fellow Mormon does not win election:


If you look at history through a biblical world view, the last step before a nation is completely destroyed is they drive the righteous from among them. If this isn’t a sign of a group of people that will drive the righteous from among them, and that’s the last step before God’s wrath comes, I fear for our country and it is - it cannot be overstated, it cannot be called paranoid ... If you are a God?fearing person, hear me. Last call, America. Last call. Because the righteous will be driven from among them.

They are nasty, divisive and, I'm sorry, but there is no way to describe that quote from Valerie Jarrett other than evil. Warning: Saul Alinsky is just the beginning of these people.

But I believe in the American people. I believe that we are not too far gone. I believe that people can watch and see the difference. They can feel the difference. When you watch Barack Obama, you can just see he is angry. When you watch Mitt Romney, you can see he is not. We are not an angry nation. We don’t listen to demagogues like that. It doesn’t work. No matter how much power he has amassed, no matter how many friends in the media he has, Americans know. And if they reject it this time, if they’re so dead inside - that’s a possibility - if they’re so dead inside that they can no longer see the difference between good and evil, we have to be destroyed because we will be a remarkable evil on this planet
.
   3283. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4295047)
IOW, I think the election is getting to you all and you're all going a little overboard. It is absolutely not too early to have a drink.


I don't drink*. Though I admit it is tempting sometimes, and right now is one of those times. Still with my family issues with alcohol probably best to stay on the straight and narrow.

* I have had alcohol before, including occasional Hard Ciders (most recently a few years back). I even got a bit tipsy once. Living large in the Mouse House that day. And I used to bartend, so I am not anti-alcohol.

Note: My spelling in this post was such that it looked like I was in fact drinking. Maybe it is time to go home.
   3284. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4295048)
My 2 cents is that with all the propositions being voted on in the state of California, it just reminds me that I wish Prop 13 would someday disappear.
   3285. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4295049)
We are not an angry nation.

Glen and I disagree. The one unifying thing about the people I discuss politics with is that they are angry.
   3286. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:00 PM (#4295051)
Mouse, certainly don't fall off the wagon on my account.

Cigar? Hooker? 3 mile run? Whatever calms you down, man.
   3287. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:00 PM (#4295052)
Glenn Beck, now there's a patriot.
   3288. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:00 PM (#4295053)
The best was Bob Shrum. For those not aware of the story, based on the exit polling, Shrum told John Kerry "Let me be the first to call you Mr. President."


The first and last.

On that dubious note... Any exit polling out yet?
   3289. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4295054)
Not sure I'll be around tonight - I'll miss you all if I'm not.

Have a good time and hug someone. Preferably a loved one but, if they're not available, love the one you're with.
   3290. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4295055)
My problem with the "contract" argument is that it can be - and has been - used to justify just about anything a government wishes to do.


This ultimately boils down to a question of legitimacy. The libertarians don't see government as legitimate authority. I see government as legitimate authority, assuming it is 'government by consent of the governed" (which does not mean government with consent of each individual member of the governed). That much is clear. I am interested in why they see government as fundamentally illegitimate. They appear to hold contracts as the purest form of social interaction, which is why I am pressing that analogy (though I am a devotee of Rousseau).

I just don't see a difference in the following:

* I need some food, so I take out a bank loan.

* I need some food, so I take a dangerous job that will hurt my health.

* I need a place to sleep, so I rent a bed in a dirty flophouse.

* I need a place to sleep, so I buy property of which the ultimate title is held by the government. The government in turn requires me to pay property taxes.

Libertarians see the first three as perfectly legitimate arrangements, while the fourth is illegitimate and coercive. I don't see why.
   3291. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4295056)
When you watch Barack Obama, you can just see he is angry.


The whole thing is dumb, but really? Obama is many things, but angry? Aloof (sure). Introverted (maybe). Ivory tower, elitist socialist from Kenya (Not, but whatever). Muslim (No but hey go for it). But angry? Where on Earth is that coming from? Can't you just make #### up that is just a bit more in tune with reality?
   3292. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4295057)
As sort of a moderate libertarian, I get the argument that there are functions of government necessary for the protection of a free society. I don't desire anarchy. My problem with the "contract" argument is that it can be - and has been - used to justify just about anything a government wishes to do. I think a lot of libertarians go a little too berserk over taxes. But they're absolutely right in principle. Taxes should be something done as small as possible to do what is necessary, and only because it is necessary. Not something that can be done as much as the government wants for any reason whatsoever.

Taxes are merely symptomatic of the broader and more troubling modern liberal tenet -- that they are free to interfere with any arrangement as much as they want to accomplish whatever they want.
   3293. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:02 PM (#4295058)
This has been a great day to grade papers and check this thread once in a while, but I too am going to go offline soon and read about it in the paper tomorrow morning. Enjoy, everybody! I plan to take bunyon's advice.
   3294. BDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4295059)
angry? Where on Earth is that coming from?

Hey, don't disparage Glenn Beck's "angrydar."

And now I am off :)
   3295. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4295061)
I plan to take bunyon's advice.

I went through three red pens today, Bob. :)
   3296. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4295062)
But angry? Where on Earth is that coming from?


His deep seated hatred for white people. Duh.
   3297. Morty Causa Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4295063)
Nancy Grace was as close to being at a loss for words after the Michael Jackson acquittal as I've seen her--but, then, it's not like I follow her program.
   3298. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4295064)
The whole thing is dumb, but really? Obama is many things, but angry? Aloof (sure). Introverted (maybe). Ivory tower, elitist socialist from Kenya (Not, but whatever). Muslim (No but hey go for it). But angry? Where on Earth is that coming from? Can't you just make #### up that is just a bit more in tune with reality?


It's funny because the defining feature of modern Dittohead conservatism is anger. Moreso than hating America and wanting to undermine our scientific advancement for the benefit of our enemies, even.
   3299. Doris from Rego Park Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4295065)
Drudge is suspiciously quiet, which I take as a good sign for the Dems
   3300. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 06, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4295066)
But I believe in the American people. I believe that we are not too far gone. I believe that people can watch and see the difference. They can feel the difference. When you watch Barack Obama, you can just see he is angry. When you watch Mitt Romney, you can see he is not.


Beck thinking that Obama comes across as angry is letting slip a lot about Beck and nothing about Obama...
Page 33 of 114 pages ‹ First  < 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 >  Last ›

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
JE (Jason Epstein)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOMNICHATTER FOR APRIL 18, 2014
(138 - 10:13pm, Apr 18)
Last: Rob_Wood

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread March, 2014
(899 - 10:11pm, Apr 18)
Last: J. Sosa

NewsblogEscape from Cuba: Yasiel Puig’s Untold Journey to the Dodgers
(23 - 10:07pm, Apr 18)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogDoug Glanville: I Was Racially Profiled in My Own Driveway
(324 - 10:04pm, Apr 18)
Last: The Id of SugarBear Blanks

NewsblogMinuteman News Center: Giandurco: This means WAR
(79 - 10:00pm, Apr 18)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogPirates Acquire Ike Davis From Mets
(11 - 9:57pm, Apr 18)
Last: The District Attorney

NewsblogOT: The NHL is finally back thread, part 2
(142 - 9:36pm, Apr 18)
Last: Langer Monk

NewsblogOTP April 2014: BurstNET Sued for Not Making Equipment Lease Payments
(1676 - 9:25pm, Apr 18)
Last: Ron J

NewsblogOT: NBA Monthly Thread - April 2014
(328 - 9:20pm, Apr 18)
Last: The District Attorney

NewsblogMitchell: Now Playing First Base for the Yankees
(53 - 8:09pm, Apr 18)
Last: The District Attorney

NewsblogRB: Carlos Beltran: more of a center fielder than Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb or Duke Snider. So what?
(32 - 7:39pm, Apr 18)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogFletcher: Foes have slowed Trout in one category so far - steals
(7 - 7:22pm, Apr 18)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 4-18-2014
(29 - 7:10pm, Apr 18)
Last: Eric J can SABER all he wants to

NewsblogGleeman: Mets minor league team is hosting “Seinfeld night”
(153 - 7:00pm, Apr 18)
Last: TerpNats

NewsblogNightengale: Pujols nears 500 home runs...and no one seems to care
(82 - 6:18pm, Apr 18)
Last: Rob_Wood

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 0.7268 seconds
52 querie(s) executed