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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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Page 35 of 114 pages ‹ First  < 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 >  Last ›
   3401. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4295182)
D+6 in VA according to CNN exit polls.
   3402. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4295183)
"Ballot Cam." Lame. It's not even a shot of a ballot.
Cam Newton goes to the polls...
   3403. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4295184)
Wolf Blitzer ejaculates [ ]
   3404. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4295185)
Good point, NHIDC. Forgot about that. Okay, perhaps I should change it to this: If LexCorp outright murdered somebody because they were friends with Superman (I dunno- Bibbo Bibbowski or something), could the entire company be charged with MURDER!?!?!
   3405. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4295186)
What was the code again? What does "not able to make a projection" mean?
   3406. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4295187)
Romney more than doubling Obama EV.
   3407. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4295188)
Well, off I head to go vote.

Since it'll be at some random house in Laguna Beach, I'm expecting I'm not going to have to wait in line too long ...
   3408. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:02 PM (#4295189)
CNN calls KY for Romney, VT for Obama!

Romney leads, 8-3!
   3409. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:02 PM (#4295190)
If you're looking for coverage that will bore you to death, I recommend PBS.
   3410. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:02 PM (#4295191)
2 states! SUCK IT MONDALE.
   3411. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:05 PM (#4295194)
Candy Crowley saying she's getting blowback on the O+5 in Ohio report.
   3412. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4295195)
Opinions on the best channel for election coverage?
   3413. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4295196)
7:05 PM ET: First appearance of John King and the touchscreens!
   3414. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:08 PM (#4295198)
Candy Crowley saying she's getting blowback on the O+5 in Ohio report.
First, Crowley and "blow" should never be found in the same paragraph, let alone sentence.

Second, unless she's providing details, Candy isn't bringing much to the table. Blowback from whom? And their complaint is what?
   3415. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4295199)
Imagine that, Romney has 87% of votes from Tea Party supporters. To which I say: How did Obama got 10% of that?

#YeahYeahIKnowExitPoll
   3416. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4295200)
Candy Crowley saying she's getting blowback on the O+5 in Ohio report.
What the hell does that mean? She's being told it's not true, or she's getting criticized from people who are pissed off that it might be true.
   3417. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4295201)
Imagine that, Romney has 87% of votes from Tea Party supporters. To which I say: How did Obama got 10% of that?

Maybe those 10% really hate Mormons.
   3418. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4295202)
Hey, man, I'm just telling you what I'm seeing.


Also, Candy Crowley smokes like a 19th century train.
   3419. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:12 PM (#4295203)
CNN showing a long line for same-day registration in Nashua, NH. I voted in Hooksett, NH and it was the same thing. No lines, no waiting for already registered voters (such as myself), but a long line for people looking to register.
   3420. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:12 PM (#4295204)
Has there been much discussion about the possibility of Bill Nelson winning this election for Obama?
   3421. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4295207)
Bernie Sanders is back!
   3422. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4295208)
Has there been much discussion about the possibility of Bill Nelson winning this election for Obama?
Not that I've read. But one also could accuse Connie Mack IV of losing the election for Romney.
   3423. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4295209)
Republicans trying some fun spin on CNN.
   3424. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4295211)
James Carville on CNN:

"We're going to know what happens in a few hours, we just have to wait."

Yeah, but you still have to fill those hours, James, so you're still gonna have to keep talking.
   3425. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4295212)
Ari Fleischer tweets that "FL looks good."

How trustworthy is Ari Fleischer?
   3426. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4295213)
50%-50% in Florida... with 5% in.
   3427. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4295214)
James Carville hates to talk unnecessarily. He also dislikes bringing the ugly.
   3428. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4295215)
Interested in the Lincoln movie (they better do Gettysburg Address right), but worried bad Spielberg may show up.
   3429. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4295216)
50%-50% in Florida... with 5% in.


Obama was up by about 15 with 3% reporting in. Mittmentum!

   3430. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:21 PM (#4295217)
What's bad Spielberg? Always?
   3431. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:21 PM (#4295218)
Bad Spielberg is 1941.
   3432. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:22 PM (#4295219)
A clean coal commercial. Awesome.
   3433. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:22 PM (#4295220)
Geez, that was early Spielberg and if that was made by some unknown instead of SPIELBERG it wouldn't be looked up so unfavorably.
   3434. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4295222)
It's turning into a landslide!
   3435. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4295223)
CNN is calling Indiana for Romney with only 8% reporting.
   3436. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4295224)
That's a lot of supporters of Romney in Boston.
   3437. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4295225)
Joe, if you are reading:

Exit polls are exit polls, but Virginia as of now is showing +6 D in party ID. So the much-criticized skew may hold in actual reality.
   3438. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:26 PM (#4295226)
Exit polls are worthless.
   3439. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:26 PM (#4295227)
That's a lot of supporters of Romney in Boston.


That's every conservative in Boston as well as people who have been flown in. They hope large numbers will help them survive the atomic glitter-bomb that the city has planned for them if Romney wins.
   3440. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4295228)
Exit polls are worthless.


I agree, I'm just having some fun.
   3441. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4295229)
The CNN tracker at http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main?hpt=elec_flippertkr seems to update much quicker than the others.

Kind of fun to watch Florida flip back and forth with each update.
   3442. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:28 PM (#4295230)
D+9 in Ohio.
   3443. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4295232)
D+9 in Ohio.

Is that even legal?
   3444. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4295233)
Bad Spielberg is when the manipulation and emotional crap overwhelms the story.

And yeah PBS sure was boring. CNN is a bit better, but it took me five minutes to find (I almost never watch cable news).
   3445. Tripon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4295234)
bad Speilburg is Warhorse.
   3446. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4295235)
It's over.
   3447. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4295237)
Romney is crushing it! It's 24-3!
   3448. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4295238)
Florida: The Penis of America
   3449. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4295239)
Wolf Blitzer ejaculates [ ]
Improbably, I think he just got there over an exit poll showing NC tied.
   3450. steagles Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:33 PM (#4295240)
i could be alone in thinking this, but have we had confirmation of mitt romney actually being a human?


i've really tried to avoid this election, but when i heard romney talk last night, he was referring to human beings as "they", almost as if he wasn't one, so i'd just like to be sure that we're not gonna be in for something like this
   3451. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4295241)
Improbably, I think he just got there over an exit poll showing NC tied.


I hope that WOW doesn't count only because it means we are in store for even better tonight.
   3452. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4295242)
Florida. Close close close. Any reporting on where the remaining votes to be counted are clustered?
   3453. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:35 PM (#4295243)
Florida. Close close close. Any reporting on where the remaining votes to be counted are clustered?


CNN does breakdowns by county and shows what percentage of the county has reported.
   3454. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:35 PM (#4295244)
Florida. Close close close. Any reporting on where the remaining votes to be counted are clustered?

Jeb has them on his boat.
   3455. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4295245)
I've switched to ABC hoping to catch some local results. So I'll miss it when Wolf finally climaxes.
   3456. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4295246)
You know who I miss? Katherine Harris.
   3457. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4295247)
Donnelly running well ahead of Obama's 08 pace in Indiana.
   3458. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4295248)
Panhandle is still open. Some I-4 votes have come in and some north FL has come in.
   3459. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4295249)
CNN does breakdowns by county and shows what percentage of the county has reported.

Cool, but I don't know the demo down there well enough to know what these early #'s mean. Any interpretations?
   3460. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4295250)
Cool, but I don't know the demo down there well enough to know what these early #'s mean. Any interpretations?

Tons more to come.
   3461. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4295251)
Cool, but I don't know the demo down there well enough to know what these early #'s mean. Any interpretations?

Panhandle is basically Alabama, and it closes late.
   3462. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4295252)
   3463. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4295253)
   3464. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4295254)
Well, Nassau County is all the way in. Romney has a better pct than McCain '08, but fewer absolute votes by about 7k.
   3465. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4295255)
Virginia is starting to worry me.
   3466. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4295256)
clarity
   3467. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4295257)
Cool, but I don't know the demo down there well enough to know what these early #'s mean. Any interpretations?


They talk about that too.

Sure are a lot of soft money ads on tonight.
   3468. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4295258)
SC for Romney despite down by 50 points. Damn that liberal media!
   3469. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4295259)
It's obvious why, but it's amusing to see CNN cut in with the breaking news of giving SC to Romney...while showing Obama with 75% of the vote.
   3470. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:43 PM (#4295260)
Virginia is starting to worry me.

Repub counties get counted first. It's going to be close, real close either way.
   3471. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:43 PM (#4295261)
Romney doing as bad as McCain in Duval county.
   3472. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:43 PM (#4295262)
Virginia is starting to worry me.


The densely populated areas don't report until very late (and in fact are still voting due to long lines, everyone in line at close of polls will be allowed to vote). The state wasn't called for Obama in 2008 until ~90% precincts reported, despite winning by 7% overall.
   3473. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:43 PM (#4295263)
Virginia is starting to worry me.


Most of what's in is Chesterfield county, which is pretty red.
   3474. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:44 PM (#4295264)
I want another blue state to fill in my map. Dammit!
   3475. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:44 PM (#4295265)
Obama is doing just as well in VA as he did in 2008.
   3476. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4295266)
It's 8%, but where are the early NC votes for Obama?

ETA: Charlotte.
   3477. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4295267)
Donnelly running well ahead of Obama's 08 pace in Indiana.


I wouldn't be surprised if this takes a Franken-Coleman turn at this point. It'll certainly be within recount margins.
   3478. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:46 PM (#4295268)
Florida: The Penis of America
   3479. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:47 PM (#4295269)
Hey guys, where is the penis of America? Also, where is the vagina?
   3480. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:47 PM (#4295270)
AHHHH! OHIO IS ROMNEY TERRITORY!

Oh, wait, they only have 2 counties with anything in, and they both aren't big cities.
   3481. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4295271)
Maryland could pass for a female organ.
   3482. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4295272)
Also, where is the vagina?

West Virginia.
   3483. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4295273)
All the tweets I'm seeing for VA have good news for O - including from non-partisans like David gergen... And Mourdock is toast in IN. The IN governors race - which was on NO ONEs radar - is also close, with no Dem strongholds reporting. If Pence loses, that's probably the shocker of the night. I still can't see that happening, but that race is getting the buzz...
   3484. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:49 PM (#4295274)
It's obvious why, but it's amusing to see CNN cut in with the breaking news of giving SC to Romney...while showing Obama with 75% of the vote


What am I missing?
   3485. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:49 PM (#4295275)
Maryland could pass for a female organ.


Maybe in Chernobyl.
   3486. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4295276)
Michigan is a deformed Shocker.
   3487. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4295277)
Shouldn't Arizona, with the GC, be the vagina?
   3488. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4295278)
So if there are, say, 15% of precincts reporting in a given state and one of the candidates has a significant lead (say, 57% to 42%), is it fair to say that the candidate who is behind is in big trouble in that state?

When would it be fair to say this?
   3489. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4295279)
What am I missing?


2 precincts in-all in the bluest county in SC.
   3490. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4295280)
What am I missing?


It was Obama 75, Romney 24... with 1% reported.
   3491. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4295281)
All the tweets I'm seeing for VA have good news for O - including from non-partisans like David gergen... And Mourdock is toast in IN. The IN governors race - which was on NO ONEs radar - is also close, with no Dem strongholds reporting. If Pence loses, that's probably the shocker of the night. I still can't see that happening, but that race is getting the buzz...


I can't say I was aware Gregg even stood a chance.

But unless something really goofy is happening, I can't see Donnelly running away with it right now.
   3492. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4295282)
So... Any surprises yet?
   3493. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4295283)
Call Georgia, darn it.
   3494. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4295284)
So basically there's no real reason showing up indicating that the systemic poll issues Romney needed to win are actually going to happen and Nate's 16% chance isn't going to hit?
   3495. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4295285)
So if there are, say, 15% of precincts reporting in a given state and one of the candidates has a significant lead (say, 57% to 42%), is it fair to say that the candidate who is behind is in big trouble in that state?

When would it be fair to say this?


Ray, it depends on where they are-for example if the 15 percent of precincts in Indiana are all in NW Indiana (pretty blue) then that really tells you nothing about the election's final results.
   3496. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4295286)
I can't say I was aware Gregg even stood a chance.

He doesn't.
   3497. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4295287)
I think I saw Romney running a couple of points behind Allen in Virginia, which would be a good sign for Obama, since Allen winning is considered a dicey proposition.
   3498. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4295288)
So if there are, say, 15% of precincts reporting in a given state and one of the candidates has a significant lead (say, 57% to 42%), is it fair to say that the candidate who is behind is in big trouble in that state?


It all depends on the demographics of those precincts.
   3499. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4295289)
3474.
I want another blue state to fill in my map. Dammit!


It's probably safe to take out your blue crayon and color in Massachusetts, but do keep within the lines.
   3500. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4295290)
So basically there's no real reason showing up indicating that the systemic poll issues Romney needed to win are actually going to happen and Nate's 16% chance isn't going to hit?


Wayyyy too early to tell.
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