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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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Page 36 of 114 pages ‹ First  < 34 35 36 37 38 >  Last ›
   3501. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:53 PM (#4295291)
FWIW, CNN has gone from 28% to 35% reported in and Obama kept a 4 point lead.
   3502. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4295292)
3487: Arizona's too dry.
   3503. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4295293)
Right, it depends on demographics. But at some point - I guess 15% isn't it - it becomes virtually impossible to make up the ground.
   3504. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4295294)
It's probably safe to take out your blue crayon and color in Massachusetts, but do keep within the lines.

I'm waiting for the calls. Being disciplined!

Chris Christie ad just came on for some reason.
   3505. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4295295)

Ray, it depends on where they are-for example if the 15 percent of precincts in Indiana are all in NW Indiana (pretty blue) then that really tells you nothing about the election's final results.


Yes, and as you know (but others may not), the latest reporting counties in Indiana are the blue ones (time zone difference between NW Indiana and the rest of the state). Mourdock/Pence (though I can't see Gregg beating him) better have a lead before our results come in.
   3506. President of the David Eckstein Fan Club Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4295296)
Romney's on pace for like 490 electoral votes!!!!
   3507. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4295297)
3487: Arizona's too dry.

I didn't say it was a great vagina.
   3508. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4295298)
Gregg doesn't - or at shouldn't stand a chance - but Pence is underperforming Romney by a good margin and again, we're still waiting on D strongholds by the Lake. I think Mourdock is absolutely toast... He's underperforming McCains numbers by a good clip.
   3509. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4295299)
Right, it depends on demographics. But at some point - I guess 15% isn't it - it becomes virtually impossible to make up the ground.


Yup. In a tight swing state 15% is too close to call for the networks. 2000 Florida is still fresh in their minds, they don't want to get burned.
   3510. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4295300)
Romney's people listen to jazz? JAZZ!?!?!
   3511. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4295301)

I voted at 7:15 pm in NJ.
As usual the line was..... zero. No waiting.

NJ has 566 municipalities. I wonder if they also have WAY too many polling places?
Convenient, though.

   3512. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4295302)
Candy Crowley is at Romney's HQ. Maybe she can fact check his speech tonight while he gives it.
   3513. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4295303)
Obama underperforming in some rural KY counties he took last time.
   3514. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4295304)
Florida: The Penis of America
I believe the proper term, per Homer Simpson, is "America's Wang".
   3515. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4295305)
So if there are, say, 15% of precincts reporting in a given state and one of the candidates has a significant lead (say, 57% to 42%), is it fair to say that the candidate who is behind is in big trouble in that state?

When would it be fair to say this?


Not necessarily. Since the reporting isn't distributed evenly throughout the state there can be big shifts in both directions as the various areas report in.
   3516. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4295306)
Fox News just called it for Romney.
   3517. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4295307)
Romney's people listen to jazz? JAZZ!?!?!

You have never heard of Utah jazz?
   3518. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:58 PM (#4295308)
FoxNews just called it for Romney.

Called what?
   3519. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:58 PM (#4295309)
But the ominous black panther has called it for Obama, so it's still even.
   3520. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:59 PM (#4295310)
That shouldn't have amused me Ray, but indeed it did...
   3521. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:59 PM (#4295311)
Comparing 2008 county totals to 2012, I'm actually feeling better about NC than FL... My poor, poor map... Still early tho.
   3522. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4295312)
Called what?

The Western Hemisphere, most likely.
   3523. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4295313)
41% of the votes are in in FLorida and Mitt is trailing by 3%. Not good.
   3524. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4295314)
The Florida results seem to be coming in much faster than the other states. 41% already.
   3525. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4295315)
You got your blue wish.
   3526. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4295316)
BOOM! BARACK ACROSS THE BOARD ON CNN!

Of course, no surprises there at all, but it makes for the tally to look closer.
   3527. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4295317)
Okay, Shooty, you can use your crayons now.
   3528. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4295318)
PA "too early" to call... Axe keeps his mustache.
   3529. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4295319)
41% of the votes are in in FLorida and Mitt is trailing by 3%. Not good.

The polls closed in Florida one minute ago.
   3530. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4295320)
Damn. Really thought O had a chance in Mississippi.
   3531. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:02 PM (#4295321)
Yay. Color time!
   3532. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:03 PM (#4295322)
Joe K, how are you feeling? Still confident?
   3533. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:03 PM (#4295323)
The polls closed in Florida one minute ago.


You set your clock wrong over the weekend.

EDIT: Central time! Curses!
   3534. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:03 PM (#4295324)
The polls closed in Florida one minute ago.


Is that just west of the Apalachicola or ...
   3535. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:03 PM (#4295325)
NJ is 53-45 for O in THE EXIT POLLING. Presumably this means that a good 2% wrote in \"#### Sandy"
   3536. Austin Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:03 PM (#4295326)
You definitely have to be careful interpreting the Florida numbers for the next couple of hours. The Panhandle is fire-engine red, so until more of those votes are counted, a tied race might look like an Obama lead.
   3537. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:04 PM (#4295327)
Fla: but we can still vote til tomorrow... [/pinellas]
   3538. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4295328)
Joe K, how are you feeling? Still confident?

Still confident.
   3539. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4295329)
Will Nate be calling states, just like the networks do?
   3540. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4295330)
VA asked counties to stop reporting vote counts because lines persist at some precincts... Angus King wins ME-Sen, so that's D+1 or D+0.5. Bill Nelson wins Fl.
   3541. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4295331)
Florida is going to go all night.....a really muddled picture right now.
   3542. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4295332)
Will Nate be calling states, just like the networks do?


He's probably having a beer.
   3543. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:07 PM (#4295333)
Will Nate be calling states, just like the networks do?



He's probably having a beer.


Do witches drink beer?
   3544. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:07 PM (#4295334)
41% of the votes are in in FLorida and Mitt is trailing by 3%. Not good.

Source?
   3545. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:08 PM (#4295335)
Beer sounds like a good idea
   3546. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:08 PM (#4295336)
Watching Fox's live feed. They keep showing a screenshot of their chat/comments, with the cameraman repeatedly zeroing in on "Is there a live feed? Where is it?". On a night like this, it's the little things.
   3547. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:08 PM (#4295337)
Yeah, I'm making it up. Stay golden.
   3548. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:08 PM (#4295338)
some MSNBC news bunny just said that D Menendez was in a "tight race" against R Kyrillos.

Maddow gently corrected her without making it too obvious.

the bunny must be giving 15 pct points....

   3549. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:08 PM (#4295339)
Do witches drink beer?


Surely some of them brew it.

Actually he's got a live blog.
   3550. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:08 PM (#4295340)
Chris Christie ad just came on for some reason.

2016
   3551. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4295341)
Continuing his theme of lies, Romney says he has only one speech written.
   3552. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4295342)
Breaking, from MSNBC:

"Ominous Black Panther to give Romney's concession speech"
   3553. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4295343)
Chris Christie ad just came on for some reason.

2016


CHRISTIE VS. CUOMO: THE NORTHEAST'S REVENGE
   3554. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:10 PM (#4295344)
Yeah, I'm making it up. Stay golden.

McCoy: No, curious to find where I can get better Florida than what I've got.
   3555. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4295345)
MSNBC had a newsbunny?
   3556. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4295346)
The Fire Engine red areas must have just started to enter Florida's numbers.
   3557. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4295347)
Gamingboy silly questions of the day:

The thing about the water breaking brings me to this quick question: If life begins at conception, shouldn't you technically be able to vote at age 17 and 3 and 1/2 months? And shouldn't you be able to buy a beer at 20 years and 3 months?
I recognize that this wasn't a serious question, but there's no reason for that, no. There's no "technicality"; it's just a definitional question of how we measure age. There's no reason it must be years since one was alive, as opposed to years since birth.

More importantly, it's a question of how the legislature chooses to measure age for a particular statute. It can say, "1) You must be 16 years old to drive a car.
2) For purposes of this statute, age shall be measured from the time one learned to walk."



Another question: If corporations are people, if LexCorp- which at some points has basically had "kill Superman" as it's business plan, were to kill somebody in an attempt to murder Superman, could the entire corporation be charged with manslaughter?
Yes. Corporations can be, and are, charged criminally. They can be fined or even executed (dissolved) if convicted. (They can't be put in jail, but that's a question of physics, not law.) Individuals who work for the corporation are entitled to their own due process and their own trials, though.
   3558. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4295348)
CNN's website.
   3559. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4295349)
I'm getting my vote updates from here: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president

Also, I thought Fox News had a monopoly on newsbunnies.
   3560. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:12 PM (#4295350)
Here is a libertarian condundrum.

If I want to drive, from say, New York to Indiana (say I am fleeing a hurricane). I am not a citizen or resident of any state that I enter. I have to pay several tolls to use interstate highway systems. Is this legitimate fee-for-service? I never agreed, implicitly or explicitly that either local, state, or federal government could charge me to use "it's" road (let alone negotiate the price)
Well, the roads should be privatized, in which case fee-for-service would be the expected arrangement. But in the absence of that best-case scenario, yes, fee-for-service via the government is the next best thing. That is, assuming the fee is set to cover the costs, rather than being hiked so the government has funds to provide iPhones to hobos or whatever the relevant politician's pet project is.

It's entirely libertarian to pay the toll, because otherwise someone else is being forced to subsidize your use of the road.

(Note that even non-toll highways are relatively libertarian; they tend to be funded with gas taxes, which of course are generally paid by road users. (Except that -- see above -- the gas taxes keep getting diverted to whatever the mass transit fad of the month is.)
   3561. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:12 PM (#4295351)
This demonstrates not only a misunderstanding of libertarian thought, but also a misunderstanding of your own position. Libertarians as a rule do not worship corporate power; it's typically preferable to government power because corporations can't send armed men to kill you, but "better than" does not necessarily equate to approval.
I would say, rather, that libertarians do not "worship" corporate power so much as question its existence, precisely because corporations can't send armed men to kill you, or take your property.

Everything you say about rent-seeking corporations using the government to grow and gain power is true, and liberals' failure to understand this is a big failure. But even if corporations and government are not working hand in glove, this notion of "playing off" corporate power and government power is a bigger conceptual failure because it's like arguing that Galileo should have defended himself by playing off the Catholic Church and the Jews of Europe. It completely misunderstands the scale. Corporations cannot possibly be played off against government, because corporations are impotent against government. The richest, most powerful corporation in the world can do nothing other than run and hide if a government comes after it.


Libertarians as a rule do not worship corporate power

Corporations are creations of the state. They're barely consistent with libertarian thought, much less creditors to it.
Corporations (with a few exceptions, such as Fannie Mae) are creations of private people, not the state. You register your corporation with the state, but you form it privately for your own private purposes.
   3562. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4295352)
51-49, Obama with a 100k vote lead with 50% reported in Florida. Romney will make that up. So now it's down to freaking Ohio.
   3563. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4295353)
A little separation now in the Indiana Senate race
   3564. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4295354)
The Fire Engine red areas must have just started to enter Florida's numbers.

Pnahandle hasn't come in yet. But most of the rest of the north has come in and it has come in for Romney but Palm Beach and Miami are coming for Obama.
   3565. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4295355)
Hee. As primitive as it is, American society has managed to move past the worst (i.e. the bulk) of libertariansim. It's on the order of turning 22 or 23 and realizing other people, GASP, are exactly as real as you are.
Uh, that's when one does become a libertarian. Before that, liberals and conservatives think of other people as pieces to move around on a SimCity screen to create the world one wants." (Does that game still exist?)
   3566. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4295356)
Apparently there are also lines of voters left in Florida.
   3567. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:15 PM (#4295357)
Romney now up 50%-49% in Florida according to CNN with 54% of the vote reporting in.
   3568. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:15 PM (#4295358)
No real senate surprises so far...Murphy, mccaskill, Casey, and Warren all seem to be in good shape.
   3569. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:15 PM (#4295359)
Romney just took the lead in Florida.
   3570. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:16 PM (#4295360)
Broward is just starting to come in.
   3571. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4295361)
Ari Fleischer notes that OH exit polls show 15% black voters, up from 11% 4 years ago.
   3572. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4295362)
St Joe county - Donnelly home turf and home to south bend - just dumped in... But still no Lake Co (keep in mind - they're in a different timezone, too).
   3573. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4295363)
Everything is still so early, for both candidates.
   3574. Danny Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4295364)
MA-Sen CNN exit poll has Warren up 18 with women and Brown up 9 with men.
   3575. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4295365)
Maine Senate seat goes to Angus King. That's -1 for the GOP.
   3576. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4295366)
Ari Fleischer notes that OH exit polls show 15% black voters, up from 11% 4 years ago.

That's a lot of Somalis.
   3577. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4295367)
Connie Mack IV's political race wins are going to be nowhere near as good as Connie Mack I's baseball wins...
   3578. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4295368)
Interesting note from Nate Silver -- oops, actually, Micah Cohen:

Just more than three-quarters of the vote has been reported in Chesterfield County, Va., an important suburban and exurban region southwest of Richmond. In the tally so far, Mitt Romney leads President Obama 54 percent to 45 percent. If those percentages hold, Mr. Romney’s performance there would match almost exactly Senator John McCain’s margin of victory in Chesterfield County in 2008: 53 percent to 46 percent. Former President George W. Bush, however, when he carried the state in 2004, won Chesterfield County with 63 percent of the vote.
   3579. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4295369)
Any guesses on the first battleground call? Pennsylvania is mine.
   3580. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:21 PM (#4295370)
Latino exits also show up a point or two over 2008...
   3581. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:21 PM (#4295371)
Does anyone know if early votes reported immediately?
   3582. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4295372)
Any guesses on the first battleground call? Pennsylvania is mine.


I'll go with North Carolina.
   3583. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4295373)
Yeah, but what were the likely voter screens applied to those exit polls?
   3584. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4295374)
Joisy!
   3585. RollingWave Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4295375)
I would love to see Richard Mourdock's women share of the vote.... or Todd Akin's for that matter.

meanwhile, so far Mitt seem to have a pretty substantial lead in Virginia, OTOH he's losing by a lot in Ohio.

   3586. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4295376)
Obama back over Romney by a point with 53% of the vote in in Florida.
   3587. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4295377)
CNN's Empire State Building thing is lame.
   3588. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4295378)
CBS has Ohio leaning to Obama now. WTF is the point of that? Call it or don't, jerks.
   3589. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4295379)
CNN's Empire State Building thing is lame.


Needs more airships.
   3590. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4295380)
meanwhile, so far Mitt seem to have a pretty substantial lead in Virginia, OTOH he's losing by a lot in Ohio.

Context is everything. Without knowing where the votes are coming from the raw totals now mean nothing.
   3591. Danny Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4295381)
I think Joe Trippi is a bigger stooge than Alan Colmes.
   3592. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:26 PM (#4295382)
I take N.H. on the first swing state call (theory of fewer votes to count).
   3593. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:26 PM (#4295383)
McCoy: CNN's map looks really goofy-Obama wins Liberty Co? No flippin way.
   3594. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4295384)
In a shocking turn of events, Arkansas will go to Bill Clinton as a write-in.
   3595. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4295385)
Holy cow! Foxx not blowing out Motsinger with 0% reporting. There is hope!
   3596. Srul Itza Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:28 PM (#4295386)
I think Joe Trippi is a bigger stooge than Alan Colmes.


Who are they?
   3597. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:28 PM (#4295387)
Well, they called GA for Romney. I'm destroyed on the inside.
   3598. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:28 PM (#4295388)
PA will get called first...or are we not counting that as a swing state?
   3599. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4295389)
Romney up 25 points in PA. Worry time.
   3600. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4295390)
Well, they called GA for Romney. I'm destroyed on the inside.


Charter school vote is going to be close.
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