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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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Page 37 of 114 pages ‹ First  < 35 36 37 38 39 >  Last ›
   3601. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4295391)
Problem with PA is that a bunch of things aren't in yet, so it shows it red so far.
   3602. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4295392)
with 1300 votes in DA?
   3603. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4295393)
Romney up 25 points in PA. Worry time.

Sarcasm doesn't really come through well over the intertubes.
   3604. RollingWave Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4295394)
Context is everything. Without knowing where the votes are coming from the raw totals now mean nothing.


From my experiences here in Taiwan, usually rural votes would finish tallying first, due to the obvious part of their voting station usually having less total votes to tally. though in very recent elections reporters began to count tally mid way which complicate things (it's still there, just not as pronounced as before) , but the effect is extremely obvious in official government tally which only reports finished counting stations.
   3605. Tripon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4295395)
I might dislike fox news' but they sure got he hottest chicks. Also, corporations can't send armed thugs to kidnap and murder you? What the heck do you call mercenaries?
   3606. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4295396)
So... no blood drawn yet, yes?
   3607. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4295397)
We may need a poll for favorite Fox Newsbunny.
   3608. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4295398)
Romney up 25 points in PA. Worry time.


It's 1%.
   3609. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:33 PM (#4295399)
Needs more airships.


Or giant apes ...
   3610. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:33 PM (#4295400)
MSNBC just called Nelson over McMahon
   3611. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:33 PM (#4295401)
OK, guys. Have fun and play nice. I'm off to a an election party at the gf's behest. I really would rather sip on scotch and stay plugged into the internet. Ah well.
   3612. greenback votes nefariously Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4295402)
MSNBC just called Nelson over McMahon

So did NPR.
   3613. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4295403)
One of the networks said that most of those first FLA votes released were the early-voting votes.


"MSNBC had a newsbunny?"

I'm grading on a curve. In the valley of the extremely visually challenged, the 50-pct visually able person is the ruler.

put that one thru the MSNBC blender first.
:)


   3614. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4295404)
MSNBC just called Nelson over McMahon

Was this an interstate race?
   3615. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:35 PM (#4295405)
We may need a poll for favorite Fox Newsbunny.



It's Jenna Lee in a walk.
   3616. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:35 PM (#4295406)
with 1300 votes in DA?


All the reporters I follow on twitter are saying it'll be a late call.
   3617. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4295407)
Man, I head over to Fox News to catch newsbunnies and I'm greeted my Huckabee's lazy eye!
   3618. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4295408)
Romney is going to win VA.
   3619. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4295409)
CNN newsman really really wants us to know he can do math.
   3620. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4295411)
Romney is going to win VA.

That's a little premature. Only 1% of Fairfax County has been counted.
   3621. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4295412)
Counties up north look to be going red. If that holds up, Obama can't win it.
   3622. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4295413)
Shut up bunyon!!! Cries
   3623. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4295414)
Anyone got a good recommendation on where to go for the best streaming live coverage that *doesn't* require me to login with my absent roommate's cable l/p?

I'm stuck suffering with the WSJ on YouTube right now ...
   3624. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4295415)
It's Jenna Lee in a walk.
Well I'd certainly take her over Megyn Kelly, whose hotness is overwhelmed by her sneering ######### that she generally wears.

Though that could just be me.
   3625. RollingWave Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4295416)
CNN newsman really really wants us to know he can do math


The whole point of CNN nowadays appears to be wanting us all to know they have really hard working graphic guys.
   3626. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4295417)
Sorry, WJ. As Moe says, I could easily be wrong.
   3627. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4295418)
This works for me - MSNBC

Don't click nothin' though, and let the ad finish
   3628. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4295419)
Voting in VA is expected to last until 11pm Eastern
   3629. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:42 PM (#4295420)
Here is a very important site which has pictures of the Fox News Flygirls.

My top 5, in order:

Jenna Lee
Heather Nauert
Degan McDowell
Alexis Glick
Dana Perino

   3630. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:42 PM (#4295421)
Wow, Romney won Alabama! Shocking!
   3631. Rickey! is just here so he don't get fined Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:43 PM (#4295422)
Charter school vote is going to be close.


Yeah. I honestly don't know what the correct vote for that is.
   3632. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:44 PM (#4295423)
From Nate:

In the final pre-election forecast at FiveThirtyEight, the state of Florida was exceptionally close. Officially, Mr. Obama was projected to 49.797 percent of the vote there, and Mr. Romney 49.775 percent, a difference of two-hundredths of a percentage point.
   3633. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4295424)
Nelson, Donnelly, McCaskill, Nelson all looking good, Florida /edit and ohio/ looking good, but Virginia stubbornly not moving. Weird.
   3634. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:46 PM (#4295425)
Wow, Romney won Alabama! Shocking!


As a reward, he should have to live there.
   3635. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4295426)
Wow, Romney won Alabama! Shocking!


That's an upset. There were Nick Saban write ins.
   3636. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4295427)
Wierd if obama won florida and lost virginia.
   3637. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4295428)
As a reward, he should have to live there.


To be fair, Birmingham is a terrific city, if you live in the nice burbs. Stupendous food, including some of the best BBQ in the country and good high-end food, beautiful old suburbs in the hills outside of town...
   3638. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4295429)
Of all the deep south states, Alabama would easily be my favorite.
   3639. Danny Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4295430)
I think Joe Trippi is a bigger stooge than Alan Colmes.

Who are they?

FoxNews Democrats.
   3640. RollingWave Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4295431)
in 538 model both VA and FL were kinda tossup ish, though VA less so, but from that perspective each candidates getting one isn't surprising, though obviously for Romney if he loses FL he's automatically toast.
   3641. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4295432)
The ABC guys are talking about how far ahead Obama was in Ohio at the same time in 2008 and he's well behind that pace.


That is flawed analysis, right?
   3642. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4295433)
FoxNews Democrats.

More like FoxNews "Democrats."
   3643. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4295434)
This newsbunny looks like a vampire. Plus she's blaming Romney not visiting Fox as the reason he is losing.
   3644. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:53 PM (#4295435)
Again, the heavy blue districts in VA generally don't report until very late, and are currently still voting.
   3645. Moe Greene Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:54 PM (#4295436)
Interestingly, CNN does not consider North Carolina to be a 'battleground' state, but it's 50-49 right now with 60% of the votes in.
   3646. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:54 PM (#4295437)
This is going to be a long night.
   3647. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:54 PM (#4295438)
Again, the heavy blue districts in VA generally don't report until very late, and are currently still voting.

And will still be voting for hours to come.

I'm not really shocked that a Republican controlled state doesn't have its #### together for election day in Democratic heavy areas.
   3648. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:55 PM (#4295439)
Going to be a long week, DA.

And I'm out of Maker's Mark. Poor planning.

Vodka tonics, I think.
   3649. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:55 PM (#4295440)
Breaking news from CBC!

US ambassador to Canada left the election party he's throwing at the hotel.
He gets too nervous, and decided to go back to his residence to watch it.

Political impact?

Not one ####### bit.

   3650. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:56 PM (#4295441)
I'm not really shocked that a Republican control state doesn't have its #### together for election day in Democratic heavy areas.


I'm just happy they are letting people vote past the deadline. It's the only fair thing to do.
   3651. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:57 PM (#4295442)
And I'm out of Maker's Mark. Poor planning.


Well someone just got crossed off my campaign manager short list.
   3652. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:57 PM (#4295443)
Both guys about to get big bump in electorals with another wave...
   3653. greenback votes nefariously Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:57 PM (#4295444)
I'm just happy they are letting people vote past the deadline. It's the only fair thing to do.

It's the law, isn't it?
   3654. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:57 PM (#4295445)
Obama's lead steadily eroding as Florida's reporting passes 2/3.
   3655. Monty Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:58 PM (#4295446)
Breaking news from CBC!

US ambassador to Canada left the election party he's throwing at the hotel.
He gets too nervous, and decided to go back to his residence to watch it.

Political impact?

Not one ####### bit.


Do we only have one ambassador to Canada? It seems like we should either have a whole lot or not even bother. I mean, it's not like Canada doesn't know where we are.
   3656. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:58 PM (#4295447)
Did Anderson just say Colorado was the home state of Paul Ryan?
   3657. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:59 PM (#4295448)
It's the law, isn't it?


"It's law" hasn't stopped 'em before or earlier today.
   3658. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:59 PM (#4295449)
Margins in FL and NC are both razor thin
   3659. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:00 PM (#4295450)
That's a lot of red.
   3660. greenback votes nefariously Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:00 PM (#4295451)
"It's law" hasn't stopped 'em before or earlier today.

True enough, but it just seems odd to be happy that the local poll workers are following the law.
   3661. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:01 PM (#4295452)
Wolf Blitzer is really excited to call states that were in the bag before the primaries.
   3662. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:01 PM (#4295453)
4,000 vote lead for Obama in Florida with 71% of the vote.
   3663. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:01 PM (#4295454)
What a surprise Michigan going for Obama.
   3664. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4295455)
What a surprise Michigan going for Obama.


It is to Dick Morris!
   3665. RollingWave Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4295456)
would be hilarious if Obama wins in NC and FL though.
   3666. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4295457)
Here is a very important site which has pictures of the Fox News Flygirls.


Reena Ninan by a mile.
   3667. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4295458)
I'm not really shocked that a Republican controlled state doesn't have its #### together for election day in Democratic heavy areas.

Just a guess, but the Democratic-heavy areas of Virginia are probably run by ... Democrats.
   3668. Tuque Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:04 PM (#4295459)
Somebody without an axe to grind tell me what the best station for election coverage is.

I saw a few comments about how Fox News at least has attractive women but I'm not seeing them.
   3669. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:04 PM (#4295460)
Don't click nothin' though, and let the ad finish


Wow, that was amazingly obnoxious. I think I'm going back to YouTube, at least they didn't attempt to get me to install some bullshit 3rd party bloat/spam/mal-ware under the pretense of installing a necessary extension.

Here is a very important site which has pictures of the Fox News Flygirls.


This might be the most important thing you've ever posted.

NOW I know how I will kill the time until the later polls come in ...

[edit] Alright, after careful consideration, here's my Top 10 Women of Fox News (as judged solely by their picture on that website):

(no particular order, except #1)

Shibani Joshi
Kimberly Guilfoyle
Harris Faulkner
Reena Ninan
Jill Dobson
Jenna Lee
Kirsten Powers
Margaret Hoover
Molly Line
Julie Banderas
   3670. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:05 PM (#4295461)
Token lefty Bob Beckel on Fox happy with everything so far except Pennsylvania.
Seems genuinely pissed that Obama may have gotten complacent there, and could blow that one.

If Romney got PA but not Ohio, what's the rest of his magic path (granting that he needs Florida either way)?

and please include the phrase "firewall for Obama" in any response.
:)
   3671. PerroX Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:05 PM (#4295462)
Wolf Blitzer is really excited to call states that were in the bag before the primaries.


I like Shep Smith -- he sarcastically calls the gimmes.
   3672. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4295463)
Shep Smith is the one of the few FOX News guys I like.
   3673. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:07 PM (#4295464)
CNN needs to make this call now?
   3674. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:07 PM (#4295465)
MSNBC says Reps will keep house.
   3675. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:08 PM (#4295466)
If Romney got PA but not Ohio, what's the rest of his magic path (granting that he needs Florida either way)?

Among other possibilities, either Colorado, or Iowa and N.H.
   3676. Swedish Chef Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:08 PM (#4295467)
Florida is such a drama queen.
   3677. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:08 PM (#4295468)
CNN too. Now Joe K can tell us it is a victory even if Romney loses. Everyone is a winner.
   3678. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:09 PM (#4295469)
Somebody without an axe to grind tell me what the best station for election coverage is.


What I've been doing is keeping MSNBC and CNN on mute (their graphics are easier to understand than Fox's) and listening to NPR through an Oregon Public Broadcasting feed. (Google "KOPB streaming".)
   3679. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:09 PM (#4295470)
I think Joe Trippi is a bigger stooge than Alan Colmes.



Who are they?


Joe Trippi was Howard Dean (and I think John Edwards) campaign manager and he is indeed a stooge... if you can raise a ton of money from small donors - and want someone to waste it on stupid ####, Joe Trippi is your man.
   3680. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:10 PM (#4295471)
Shep Smith is the one of the few FOX News guys I like.


Yeah, Shep's pretty much the token non-hack on staff. Remember his work during Katrina?
   3681. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:10 PM (#4295472)
I would love to see Richard Mourdock's women share of the vote.... or Todd Akin's for that matter.


Bet more women vote for them than 20-something, single men.
   3682. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:11 PM (#4295473)
Shep Smith is the one of the few FOX News guys I like.


I've liked Shep ever since he went off the reservation and openly mocked Glenn Beck near the beginning of Beck's time on Fox ...
   3683. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:12 PM (#4295475)
Wolf almost came on live TV when the Florida vote tally switched right in front of him.
   3684. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:12 PM (#4295476)

Smith appears to be a genuine journalist. I wonder if he started 'going rogue' on the Fox talking points a few years back, and the market research showed that the audience liked having one guy who does that.

Plus I understand he's catnip for the ladies.

   3685. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:12 PM (#4295477)
Obama's lead in Ohio shrinking pretty fast.
   3686. Danny Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:12 PM (#4295478)
The Unskewed guy had his own exit poll. Online.

   3687. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:13 PM (#4295479)
And I'm out of Maker's Mark. Poor planning.


For me that's disqualifying if you ever want to run for office.
   3688. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:13 PM (#4295480)
Joe? Can we have a temperature reading?

Once you waver I know Romney's chances are washing away.
   3689. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:13 PM (#4295481)
According to CNN exit polls 52% of the women voted for Donnelly and 43% of them voted for Mourdock. Men are almost split evenly.
   3690. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:14 PM (#4295482)
WSJ calls MI for Obama.
   3691. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:14 PM (#4295483)
Plus I understand he's catnip for the ladies.


And queer as a three-dollar bill.
   3692. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:15 PM (#4295484)
Akin has 39% of the female vote to 56% going to McCaskill.
   3693. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:15 PM (#4295485)
Called PA for Obama
   3694. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:16 PM (#4295486)
Fox calls PA for Obama. Beckel can loosen those suspenders now.

200-vote margin with 78 pct of the vote in. They'll be pissed if they don't matter this time!
   3695. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:16 PM (#4295487)
Once you waver I know Romney's chances are washing away.


I'm wavering big time. Send it in, Jerome!
   3696. President of the David Eckstein Fan Club Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:17 PM (#4295488)
"Look how close it is!" - CNN talking heads furiously pointing at the 50% each candidate has in Florida
   3697. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:17 PM (#4295489)
Florida at 78% and separated by <200 votes.
   3698. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:17 PM (#4295490)
Broward still is very small so far. Ditto Miami-Dade.
   3699. Langer Monk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:18 PM (#4295491)
Very little of Fairfax counted in VA - Board of Elections count

Including my polling place, which had lines I'd never seen since I moved here.
   3700. greenback votes nefariously Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:18 PM (#4295492)
Fox calls PA for Obama.

So much for Susquehanna.
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