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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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Page 38 of 114 pages ‹ First  < 36 37 38 39 40 >  Last ›
   3701. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4295493)
Obama's lead in Ohio shrinking pretty fast.

As you probably know, a lot of Obama early lead in places like Ohio was simply due to early voting.

***
Joe? Can we have a temperature reading?

Once you waver I know Romney's chances are washing away.

Still confident. Looking good in FL and VA.
   3702. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4295494)
Called for Baldwin in Wisconsin.
   3703. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4295495)
Dem counties starting to come in in VA.
   3704. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4295496)
Wow. Nice.
   3705. RollingWave Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4295497)
According to CNN exit polls 52% of the women voted for Donnelly and 43% of them voted for Mourdock. Men are almost split evenly. Akin has 39% of the female vote to 56% going to McCaskill.
To be fair to Mourdock, his comment was retarded but just that, where as Akin was on a whole different level of insane.

   3706. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4295498)
Oh, anyways, my approximate ballot, if anyone cares.

President - Johnson
Senate - Feinstein (ugh, I hadn't figured out how to skip an election on the electronic ballot yet)
CA Rep 48 - DEAR GOD ANYONE BUT Rorbacher (Varasteh)
CA State Senate - Whatever R was running.
CA State Rep - Whatever R was running.
CA Props: 30 NO, 31 NO, 32 YES, 33 NO, 34 YES, 35 NO, 36 YES, 37 NO, 38 NO, 39 NO, 40 YES.
   3707. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:22 PM (#4295499)
Did Fox call PA for Obama before anyone else? I know CNN hasn't called that one yet.
   3708. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:23 PM (#4295500)
Florida being more favorable to Obama than Virginia (so far) is the biggest surprise at this point. However, my recollection from 2000 is that the GOP picked up votes in the Sunshine State from ~ 9:00PM - 12:00 AM. This could take a while, but both sides still have their paths to victory open.
   3709. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:23 PM (#4295501)
Did Fox call PA for Obama before anyone else? I know CNN hasn't called that one yet.


PBS called Pennsylvania for Obama.
   3710. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:23 PM (#4295503)
I've been misreading the CNN map. I assumed if they'd shaded a county it had most of it's vote in. Not the case.

Sorry about that.
   3711. zenbitz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4295505)
Well, isn't NC closer than VA? So probably it's just uneven counting.
   3712. GregD Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4295506)
CNN has called pa to Obama

Ed: whoops I am not watching CNN! Doh!
   3713. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4295507)
ABC has now called PA.
   3714. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4295508)
Looks like a 303 night to me.
   3715. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4295509)
I think NC to Romney, at this point.
   3716. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4295510)
Meanwhile, WSJ "coverage" is talking Pat Toomey, who is trying to spin the fact that FOX is calling Pennsylvania for Obama.


My fellow Americans. As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball, but
tonight I say, we must move forward, not backward, upward not forward,
and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom.
   3717. RollingWave Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:25 PM (#4295511)
Were the Dems really still in play in NC (ads etc)? I was under the impression that they had abandoned that state.
   3718. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:25 PM (#4295512)
I am disappointed that the Empire State Building isn't moving in real time and instead seems to be going up sporadically. Show some dedication, CNN.
   3719. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:25 PM (#4295513)
So far, so right.
   3720. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:26 PM (#4295514)
Wisconsin called for Bammy by Fox.

Is this the first blood drawn?
   3721. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:26 PM (#4295515)
Very little reported from the bayonet-loving Tidewater region
   3722. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:27 PM (#4295516)
Fox News suggesting the GOP will gain House seats.
   3723. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:27 PM (#4295517)
Nate Silver:
Florida has a significant Cuban-American population, and those voters tend be more Republican-leaning than other Hispanics. In this year’s exit poll in Florida, 50 percent of Cuban-American voters said they voted for Mitt Romney, against 47 percent for Barack Obama.

Mr. Obama had a two-thirds advantage with non-Cuban Hispanics in the exit poll, however — and they made up 10 percent of the voting population, compared with 6 percent for Cuban-Americans.

Thus, early returns show Mr. Obama to win Hispanic-Americans over all by 20 percentage points in Florida, and if he wins that, it’d be larger than the 15-point margin he had in 2008. If Mr. Obama ekes out a win in Florida, this will have a lot to do with it.
   3724. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:28 PM (#4295518)
When Fox called Wisconsin for Obama did they immediately go to Dick Morris for a reaction?
   3725. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:29 PM (#4295519)
Nate should've built a model that took live feeds of precinct or county reports and re-handicapped the race based on demographics.

Big missed opportunity for some live eyeballs IMO.
   3726. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:30 PM (#4295520)
81% of Florida precincts are reporting, and Romney is up by 636 votes. Yeah, your singular vote doesn't matter...

EDIT: And now Obama is up 1300 votes. This is fun.
   3727. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:31 PM (#4295521)
Local ####, but a huge tell for Democrat enthusiasm this cycle: John Barrow is currently ahead in GA-12 against a Tea Party con.
   3728. zenbitz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:31 PM (#4295522)
Silver projected NC to be 50.6-48.9 to Romney. How is that not in play? VA was essential the reverse. Both 70-30 propositions.
   3729. Tripon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:31 PM (#4295523)
Wait, wasn't part of the reason Romney picked Ryan as to pick up Wisconsin?
   3730. Langer Monk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:32 PM (#4295524)
Nothing reported from Norfolk, VA Beach or Portsmouth - Norfolk and Portsmouth were 70% for Obama in '08. Deficit of about 97k votes. And not a lot in from Fairfax County or Prince William yet.
   3731. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:32 PM (#4295525)
Florida is going to be a recount no matter what...
   3732. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:32 PM (#4295526)
3706. what about Prop 35?
   3733. zenbitz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:33 PM (#4295527)
CNN: Romney people on the ground are confident in Florida [X]
   3734. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:33 PM (#4295528)
Fox called Wisconsin? I know that Baldwin has been called, but I haven't seen Pres called yet.
   3735. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4295529)
MSNBC just did too
   3736. RollingWave Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4295530)
When's the last time a President AND Vice President candidate didn't carry their home states and still won?
   3737. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4295531)
FOX called Wisconsin for Obama?!
   3738. zenbitz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4295532)
So, at what point does the rest of country (red and blue) decide that OHIO doesn't get to pick the president anymore?
   3739. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4295533)
3706. what about Prop 35?


Eh?
   3740. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:35 PM (#4295534)
Ohio also has an unusual amount of astronauts.
   3741. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:36 PM (#4295535)
So, at what point does the rest of country (red and blue) decide that OHIO doesn't get to pick the president anymore?


When Kang vaporizes it with his laser gun.
   3742. zenbitz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:36 PM (#4295536)
Fox just called IN senate for Donnally.
   3743. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:36 PM (#4295537)
When's the last time a President AND Vice President candidate didn't carry their home states and still won?


1972-McGovern and Shriver.
   3744. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:37 PM (#4295538)
MSNBC has it R-50/0-48, but Obama winning Wisconsin with only 3% of the vote.

That's...unusual.
   3745. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:37 PM (#4295539)
Nixon lost?
   3746. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:38 PM (#4295540)
So, at what point does the rest of country (red and blue) decide that OHIO doesn't get to pick the president anymore?


Obama can win without Ohio, Virginia or Florida, as long as he holds N.H., Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (and avoids surprises in states that weren't considered battlegrounds).
   3747. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:38 PM (#4295541)
If they call this at 11:01, when are concession and victory speeches?
   3748. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:38 PM (#4295542)
Ah sorry, didn't see the "won" part and they just mentioned that on PBS.
   3749. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:38 PM (#4295543)
When's the last time a President AND Vice President candidate didn't carry their home states and still won?

You don't think the Dems are going to hold Delaware?
   3750. zenbitz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:39 PM (#4295544)
Yes CNN didn't even mention WI. Assuming that the various networks have extremely similar forecasters (based on county party bias and turnout), I can only guess that Fox makes a call a 97% certainty but CNN waits for 99%.
   3751. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:39 PM (#4295545)
I like how Ohio has turned into a dud so all eyes have turned to Florida. If Romney doesn't win Ohio he's got a pull a miracle out of his butt.
   3752. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:39 PM (#4295546)
If they call this at 11:01, when are concession an victory speeches?


As soon as Romney finishes writing it.
   3753. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:39 PM (#4295547)
When's the last time a President AND Vice President candidate didn't carry their home states and still won?



1972-McGovern and Shriver.


Um.

EDIT: Sorry, see what you missed.
   3754. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:39 PM (#4295548)
it's creepy how geographically continguous the voting blocs are.
   3755. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:39 PM (#4295549)
NV/CO/NH wins it right now for Obama.
   3756. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:41 PM (#4295550)
As soon as Romney finishes writing it.

It would be kind of cool if he read his victory speech anyway. it would also play into the whole Romney is a robot meme.
   3757. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:41 PM (#4295551)
I never have gotten why they don't just have the obvious state-wins counted immediately. I mean, I know why: because otherwise there'd be no drama. But... hey.
   3758. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:41 PM (#4295552)
Stand by for projection as soon as major toothbrush commercial is over.
   3759. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:42 PM (#4295553)
Obama took lead in FL?
   3760. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:42 PM (#4295554)
Gee, another shocker. Obama gets PA. Man, don't you just hate it when the polls are right?
   3761. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:42 PM (#4295555)
NBC projects Warren over Brown.
   3762. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4295556)
Obama wins PA. The GOP is going to have to step up their voter suppression for 2016.

It would be kind of cool if he read his victory speech anyway. it would also play into the whole Romney is a robot meme.


*applause*
   3763. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4295557)
It would be kind of cool if he read his victory speech anyway. it would also play into the whole Romney is a robot meme.



I once joked with a friend that we actually have never seen the actual Mitt Romney, and that all of his apperances are actually Disney Imagineers testing a new audioanimatronic for the Hall of Presidents in case Romney wins.
   3764. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4295558)
Hmmmmm....Miami Dade only 40% in? Nice.
   3765. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4295559)
NBC says Donnelly in Indiana.
   3766. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4295560)
I never have gotten why they don't just have the obvious state-wins counted immediately. I mean, I know why: because otherwise there'd be no drama. But... hey.


Probably a rule about announcing winning states before polls closed.

They could call CA/OR/WA/NM right now.
   3767. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:44 PM (#4295561)
Well I'd certainly take her over Megyn Kelly, whose hotness is overwhelmed by her sneering ######### that she generally wears.

You just gotta understand the glory that IS a nice long hate-#### (or, heck, even a pretend hate-####, if you're into that).
   3768. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:44 PM (#4295562)
NBC projects Warren over Brown.


Revolting. Well, I know who governor of MA will be in a few years.
   3769. GregD Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:44 PM (#4295563)
Donnelly in Indiana by NBC
   3770. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:44 PM (#4295564)
ABC news rocking it with their own Rachel Maddow clone ...
   3771. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:44 PM (#4295565)
Not many places for Romney to pull votes from in FL. Ditto for Obama in NC.
   3772. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:44 PM (#4295566)
If anything, Obama, not Romney, is outperforming the polls.

It's over.
   3773. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:45 PM (#4295568)
Why is Missouri not called?
   3774. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:45 PM (#4295569)
NBC projects Donnelly over Mourdock. Looking good for the Dems in the Senate.
   3775. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:45 PM (#4295570)
Ok looking more like a 332 night...
   3776. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4295571)
Breaking news:

Obama called "lolfagcamper" by 13-year old boy while killing time playing newly released Halo 4 video game.
Obama ordered drones on stand-by.
   3777. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4295572)
Alright, Warren won. A great victory for Native Americans.
   3778. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4295573)
Revolting. Well, I know who governor of MA will be in a few years.


This guy?
   3779. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4295574)

Obama called "lolfagcamper" by 13-year old boy while killing time playing newly released Halo 4 video game.
Obama ordered drones on stand-by.


I always saw Obama as more of a Mass Effect man.
   3780. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4295575)
Really want to see Maryland questions 6 & 7 go down. The party machine will just try again next year and likely succeed then. However, hopefully performing such shenanigans will break their stranglehold over the state. Throughout history, is there any way a dominant party machine has fallen except callously ignoring voters?
   3781. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4295576)
I'm avoiding everything except this thread.
   3782. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:48 PM (#4295577)
Throughout history, is there any way a dominant party machine has fallen except callously ignoring voters?

Tammany Hall?
   3783. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:48 PM (#4295578)
ABC news rocking it with their own Rachel Maddow clone ...

I noticed that too -
   3784. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:48 PM (#4295579)
CNN still not calling Wisconsin for Obama in spite of a now overwhelming 6 pct of the total vote in.
#biased #lol

But CNN also strongly suggesting that Obama in the FL lead, with Miami-Dade-Broward votes out, is just about a dealbreaker for Romney fot the whole shebang.

If flopsweat appears on Rove on Fox, everybody can go home.



   3785. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:49 PM (#4295580)
How can Colorado have a larger percentage of its votes counted compared to New Hampshire?
   3786. GregD Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:49 PM (#4295581)
NBC says mass yes on medical marijuana
   3787. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:49 PM (#4295582)
Joe? Still at 98.6?
   3788. vagab0nd (no longer an outl13r) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4295583)
How can Colorado have a larger percentage of its votes counted compared to New Hampshire?


It must be the pot.
   3789. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4295584)
NH, #######.
   3790. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4295585)

How can Colorado have a larger percentage of its votes counted compared to New Hampshire?


I'd have to guess it involves early voting in some way.
   3791. GregD Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4295586)
New Hampshire to Obama by NBC
   3792. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4295587)
'Zop, did you ever answer what was revolting about Warren or was it the native American thing only? Did I forget?
   3793. DA Baracus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4295588)
How can Colorado have a larger percentage of its votes counted compared to New Hampshire?


New Hampshire had an unexpectedly high number of new voters show up to register and vote, so it is taking a while to count those votes.
   3794. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4295589)
Obama takesnh
   3795. DKDC Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4295590)
It's over.
   3796. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4295591)
Called for Sherrod Brown over Mandel in Ohio.

   3797. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4295592)
Lot of early voting in Colorado - is it already in the totals?
   3798. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4295593)
NBC calls NH for Obama.
   3799. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:52 PM (#4295594)
3706. what about Prop 35?


I voted against it too. Human trafficking is, obviously, already illegal. This just expands the sex offender registry, which is already venturing into dangerously grey areas (like the no-fly list). It's getting a bit 1984 in terms of being black listed by an unfightable, faceless bureaucracy.
   3800. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 09:52 PM (#4295595)
So far, so right.
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