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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   3801. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:52 PM (#4295596)
FoxNews clings to hope:

Obama wins battlegrounds of Pa., Mich., Wis.; Romney leads in overall electoral-vote count


(of course, that's before California drops it's vote bomb on the popular count)
   3802. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4295597)
Well, I'm putting the check mark next to Obama. I can't see there being enough Romney votes in Ohio or Colorado, so that wraps it up.
   3803. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4295598)
Human trafficking is, obviously, already illegal. This just expands the sex offender registry, which is already venturing into dangerously grey areas (like the no-fly list). It's getting a bit 1984 in terms of being black listed by an unfightable, faceless bureaucracy.

100% correct. As a criminal defense lawyer - hell, as a concerned citizen - I hope Prop. 35 goes down in flames.
   3804. Gonfalon B. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:54 PM (#4295599)
This headline sums up the night.
   3805. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:54 PM (#4295600)
CNN should be calling NH, Minn, and DC for Obama soon. Probably after the break.
   3806. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:54 PM (#4295601)
I voted against it too. Human trafficking is, obviously, already illegal. This just expands the sex offender registry, which is already venturing into dangerously grey areas (like the no-fly list). It's getting a bit 1984 in terms of being black listed by an unfightable, faceless bureaucracy.


Yeah. Unnecessary bill, badly written. Slate, Salon, sex-workers and anti-trafficking organizations came out against it. We already *had* an anti-trafficking prop passed recently and there have actually been several additional anti-trafficking bills that were passed since then.

[edit] Plus, I tend to instinctively vote NO on Props that I don't think pass the "existential threshold" of needing to be dealt with with a ####### general ballot proposition ...


ABC calls Minnesota.

So far, so right.
   3807. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:54 PM (#4295602)
Looking tough for Romney.

Basically still in play:

CO (9), IA (6), OH (18), VA (13), NC (15), FL (29)

If Obama gets 13 EV from that set, he wins.

Assumes the calls so far and projected safe states are accurate.
   3808. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4295603)
So, the "hey, rape ain't so bad if G*d gives you a baby out of the deal" tactic doesn't seem to working out very well.
   3809. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4295604)
You just gotta understand the glory that IS a nice long hate-#### (or, heck, even a pretend hate-####, if you're into that).
No, no, I mean that her b!tchface renders her significantly less attractive.

But come to think of it, I've never had a a hate-#### so maybe I just don't understand.
   3810. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4295605)
The woman at the ABC News desk doesn't quite understand how elections work. She tried to make a scenario, but seems to think that tie goes to the incumbent. Won't happen, though, Wisconsin's gone.
   3811. greenback likes millwall Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4295606)
Lot of early voting in Colorado - is it already in the totals?

Does this vary by state? Somebody here in IN told me had to stand in line for a half hour while the poll workers compared absentee ballots against the book that in-person voters have to sign.
   3812. Guapo Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4295607)
DAVID AXELROD'S MUSTACHE IS SAFE
   3813. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:56 PM (#4295608)
Think FL's gone, frankly.
   3814. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:56 PM (#4295609)
[3807] NV?
   3815. Gonfalon B. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4295610)
Re: #3807:
Using that NY Times "paths to the White House" thingy, once you click in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, it leaves Obama with 118 combinations to win, while Romney has 9. (Plus 1 tie.)
   3816. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4295611)
Well, hopefully this whole rape thing will teach them that you actually have to compromise in politics.
   3817. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4295612)
Voting for my Rep, Critz/Rothfus, is a dead heat.
   3818. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4295613)
Iowa has run OUT OF BALLOTS? WTF?
   3819. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4295614)
Poppy Harlow is a porn star name.
   3820. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4295615)
Obama takesnh


IA! IA! CTHULU FTHAGN!!!
   3821. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:59 PM (#4295616)
Using that NY Times "paths to the White House" thingy, once you click in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, it leaves Obama with 118 combinations to win, while Romney has 9. (Plus 1 tie.)

At this point, I think 9/127 is better than Romney's odds!
   3822. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:59 PM (#4295617)
Well, hopefully this whole rape thing will teach them that you actually have to compromise in politics.

The compromise is: guy gets to rape, girl gets the baby. It's how most Tea Partiers are conceived.
   3823. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:59 PM (#4295618)

IA! IA! CTHULU FTHAGN!!!

Wait, first they said he was Muslim and now they claim he is a devotee of the Old Ones?
   3824. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:59 PM (#4295619)
Apparently there are a lot of votes still uncounted in bro ward cty
V promising for the dems
   3825. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:59 PM (#4295620)
You just gotta understand the glory that IS a nice long hate-#### (or, heck, even a pretend hate-####, if you're into that).

No, no, I mean that her b!tchface renders her significantly less attractive.

Sounds like a War on Women at some BBTF precincts.
   3826. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4295621)
MITT ROMNEY WON UTAH!?!!?!?! WOW!
   3827. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4295622)
'Zop, did you ever answer what was revolting about Warren or was it the native American thing only? Did I forget?


I'm a bankruptcy lawyer and when I was in law school a few years ago (gosh, now we're talking 4-5 years ago) I worked closely with a bankruptcy prof there. He was a prominent researcher who knew Warren professionally and personally. IIRC, this was when Warren was getting involved in TARP but before she was ticketed for bigger and better things, before she was a liberal cause celebre. Anyhow, this professor told me multiple times that he viewed Warren as dishonest, backstabbing, ambitious to a fault, etc. And this wasn't something he said about anyone else, no matter their political persuasion. He just viewed Warren as a very destructive person, aside from ideology.

I get why people here root for Warren because she's the rare white (didn't mean to bring that up, but, LOLZ) politican who's comfortable using unabashed left wing rhetoric, but between the stories I heard back in the aughts and the Native American thing (which is precisely consistent with those stories), I'm convinced she's a bad person, even by politician standards. And Scott Brown is a friend-of-a-friend and is, at least so I am told, a good guy, if a bit of a goof. I don't like seeing shitty people beat good people.
   3828. President of the David Eckstein Fan Club Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4295623)
Utah for Romney. Shocked.
   3829. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4295624)
Also on the ABC, the lead guy, Dan Harris, has this weird ass half Paul Ryan, half Bill Maher looking face thing going on.
   3830. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4295625)
Don't give up yet - we're still waiting on Trump's Midnight Surprise.

I hear he has upped his ante to $10 mil.
   3831. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:01 PM (#4295626)
The sad part is that 4 years from now we'll have the same argument over polls that we did this year. Somebody needs to reassess the way they process polls and it isn't Nate Silver.
   3832. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:01 PM (#4295627)
#3813 - into the ocean? Holy crap.
   3833. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:01 PM (#4295628)
NOT UTAH!

/sad face Obama
   3834. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:01 PM (#4295629)
Apparently there are a lot of votes still uncounted in bro ward cty


I dunno, man, I think the bro's are voting for Romney ...
   3835. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:01 PM (#4295630)
That "512 Paths to the White House" page on the NYT site just moved NH to the "called for Obama" status, the first of its identified battlegrounds for that to happen.
   3836. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4295631)
Don't give up yet - we're still waiting on Trump's Midnight Surprise.

Trump's planning a special episode of Celebrity Apprentice in which the celebrities have to kidnap electors and replace them with doubles.
   3837. GregD Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4295632)
What has been the best result for republicans so far? Seriously? What's their best senate or house final so far?
   3838. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4295633)
Did Jeff Greenfield just say that Warren beat Brown in union households, 61-49?
   3839. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4295634)
####### did you guys waste a lot of time arguing about those ####### polls.
   3840. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:03 PM (#4295635)
Don't give up yet - we're still waiting on Trump's Midnight Surprise.

I hear he has upped his ante to $10 mil.


Not sure if I missed the mention, but Mark Cuban is offering to donate $1 million to the Red Cross if Trump shaves his head.
   3841. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:03 PM (#4295636)
Santa Rosa County is the biggest drama queen in the biggest drama state-no results, and I don't think anyone's under 50% in the rest of the state of Florida.
   3842. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:03 PM (#4295637)
[3838] Just like in basebaal, they were giving 110%!
   3843. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:03 PM (#4295638)
'Zop - thanks for the answer.
   3844. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:04 PM (#4295639)
CNN now calling NH too.
   3845. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:04 PM (#4295640)
####### did you guys waste a lot of time arguing about those ####### polls.
.

There has to have been at least 700 posts about that bull-####. Someone needs to pay with their mustache
   3846. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:04 PM (#4295641)
CNN gives NH to Obama. I'm very happy to be wrong about this one.
   3847. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:05 PM (#4295642)
Not sure if I missed the mention, but Mark Cuban is offering to donate $1 million to the Red Cross if Trump shaves his head.


Oh, man, he should totally KickStarter that bet.

How high do we think it would have to get before the money whore would grovel before the dollars offered?
   3848. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:06 PM (#4295643)
94-5 in DC with 20% of the vote in and CNN still isn't calling it. I'm thinking they forgot about it or can't find it on the "wallboard".
   3849. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:06 PM (#4295644)
So, the "hey, rape ain't so bad if G*d gives you a baby out of the deal" tactic doesn't seem to working out very well.

Yes, thank God that awful misogynist Mourdock was beaten by someone ... with the same exact position on rape and abortion.
   3850. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:06 PM (#4295645)
There has to have been at least 700 posts about that bull-####. Someone needs to pay with their mustache

700?
   3851. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:07 PM (#4295646)
3846. Good good news wrt new hampshire
   3852. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:07 PM (#4295647)
I would also like to say that Ray has been in rare form these last two days. That's a compliment, btw....
   3853. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:07 PM (#4295648)

94-5 in DC with 20% of the vote in and CNN still isn't calling it. I'm thinking they forgot about it or can't find it on the "wallboard".


Actually, due to a shocking result, it went to Teddy.
   3854. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:07 PM (#4295649)
94-5 in DC with 20% of the vote in and CNN still isn't calling it. I'm thinking they forgot about it or can't find it on the "wallboard".


Haha... I imagine there is an intern who is desperately signalling Wolf off-camera.
   3855. Bad Doctor Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4295650)
MSNBC calls MO for McCaskill
   3856. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4295651)
A lot of places are running out of ballots. That shouldn't even be possible.
   3857. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4295652)
3847: I'd be in for $100, normally I'd want some original artwork for that kinda kickstarter commitment but this would be a special case.

Remember we're still awaiting early returns from Kolob, Romney is expected to carry that easily, along with the adjacent planets ruled by his father and grandfather
   3858. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4295653)
Loudon Co finally went blue.
   3859. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4295654)
McCaskill!
   3860. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4295655)
162 to162 not counting Minnesota and dc

Man, tablets are tuff tto type on
   3861. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4295656)
Thanks for staying in the race, Representative MagicVag.
   3862. zenbitz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4295657)
I voted against CA-35. I really hate ballot initiatives like "ANTI-CHILD MOLESTATION STATUE". Also, I am pretty sure it's unwise to put sentencing guidelines (for ANY crimes) up for popular vote.
   3863. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:10 PM (#4295658)
I do believe I'm going to go unblock Kehoskie now.
   3864. The Ghost fouled out, but stays in the game Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:11 PM (#4295659)
Jesse Jackson Jr. hasn't been seen in public in months? No matter, wins in a huge landslide.
   3865. Gonfalon B. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:11 PM (#4295660)
I really hate ballot initiatives like "ANTI-CHILD MOLESTATION STATUE".

That's got to be one depressing public park.
   3866. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:12 PM (#4295661)
NBC and CBS are giving away their real live feed online, but ABC seems to have a B-crew live feed of "exclusive" coverage in partnership with Yahoo!. Fox must be offering a B-crew live-feed unless you login with a cable provider, cos they don't even have a ticker going.
   3867. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:12 PM (#4295662)
Ohio down to a 3% lead.
   3868. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:13 PM (#4295663)
Jesse Jackson Jr. hasn't been seen in public in months? No matter, wins in a huge landslide.


One of the perks of watching returns in NYC is seeing the numbers out of the black districts. You see Dem incumbents getting 80%+ all of the time, often with the GOP guy getting <10%.
   3869. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:13 PM (#4295664)
Also, I am pretty sure it's unwise to put sentencing guidelines (for ANY crimes) up for popular vote.


I made an exception for #36, which I saw as doing some appreciable part to undue the previous stupidity of state-wide 3 strikes sentencing laws.
   3870. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:15 PM (#4295665)

Fox goes to Palin in Wasilla.

I know, but she looks great.

with Greta, both are close to entering the 5 stages of grief...

   3871. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:15 PM (#4295666)
One of the perks of watching returns in NYC is seeing the numbers out of the black districts. You see Dem incumbents getting 80%+ all of the time, often with the GOP guy getting <10%.

You ought to watch the Alabama results then, if you like that sort of thing.
   3872. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:15 PM (#4295668)
CNN calls Missouri Senate race for McCaskill. Akin and Mourdock both defeated. Hooray.
   3873. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:16 PM (#4295669)
From NRO:
heymiller Those MSM polls are looking kinda accurate.
   3874. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:17 PM (#4295670)
162 to162 not counting Minnesota and dc

Man, tablets are tuff tto type on
   3875. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:17 PM (#4295671)
One of the perks of watching returns in NYC is seeing the numbers out of the black districts. You see Dem incumbents getting 80%+ all of the time, often with the GOP guy getting <10%.


Heck, out here, with the open primary, there are districts where a Republican doesn't even make it to November. It's Dem vs. Dem tonight.
   3876. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4295672)
Shmuley Boteach, the Michael Jackson rabbi who ran against elderly Dem Bill Pascrell in northern NJ House race, couldn't pull off a "Thriller" after all. Pascrell wins....

and Scott Garrett, the only House member from NJ to vote the other day against emergency aid for NJ (also voted against Katrina aid, which to be fair, he wanted safeguards against waste and - a lot was wasted) - wins re-election in northern NJ in spite of redistricting.

NJ - we're never dull!

   3877. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4295673)
I know, but she looks great.
That's maybe as lucid and intelligent as I've ever heard her be. And I don't mean that as damning with faint praise.
   3878. Tuque Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4295674)
I'm just watching Fox because it has lots of bright colors and shiny people.

Also for some reason this white guy keeps waving frantically at the Dodger Stadium infield.
   3879. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:19 PM (#4295675)
I really hate ballot initiatives like "ANTI-CHILD MOLESTATION STATUE".

That's got to be one depressing public park.


You should see the pro-molestation one.
   3880. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:19 PM (#4295676)
Possibly not relevant to anyone except me on this site, but New Hampshire's governorship is called on CNN's web site to remain Democrat. Both House seats are still uncalled.
   3881. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:20 PM (#4295677)
CBS News calls VA for Kaine.
   3882. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:20 PM (#4295678)
Fox goes to Palin in Wasilla.

I know, but she looks great.
Holy cats - who is FOX's studio blonde? When they ended that Palin segment, they went back to her and she was staring into my soul - in a good way. Yowza.

She may immediately vault onto my Top 5 hottest newscasters. She would join, among 3 others, Claire Shipman. I miss Claire.
   3883. zenbitz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:21 PM (#4295679)
Watching last nights' Colbert Report now... Nate Silver is on!
   3884. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:21 PM (#4295680)
ABC calls NM.
   3885. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:21 PM (#4295681)
Romney better be a quick writer - I think Florida gets called for Obama *very* soon.
   3886. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:23 PM (#4295682)
In 2008 I was told that Obama won by Jon Stewart. Will it happen again? Tick-tock Tick-Tock....
   3887. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:23 PM (#4295683)
Obama might have won numerous personal elections including two presidential elections but he is absolutely horrible at getting his fellow Democrats elected. I wonder if he'll stump for Dem presidential candidates in 8+ years.
   3888. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4295684)
The Republican talking head on CNN looked like he was going to cry. Carville patted him on the back in support!

"The silent majority doesn't seem to be a majority, and seems to be invisible."
   3889. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4295685)
In 2008 I was told that Obama won by Jon Stewart. Will it happen again? Tick-tock Tick-Tock....

Bah, I already made the official call. You heard it from me.
   3890. Langer Monk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4295686)
As more Virginia precincts report, the Romney lead continues to shrink (45k) - still no Norfolk or Portsmouth.
   3891. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4295687)
She may immediately vault onto my Top 5 hottest newscasters. She would join, among 3 others, Claire Shipman. I miss Claire

Bastard! I turn to Fox and Karl Rove is on.
   3892. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4295688)
Romney better be a quick writer - I think Florida gets called for Obama *very* soon.
No chance. 2000 wasn't that long ago and the lead isn't *that* big.
   3893. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4295689)
CBS calling NV "likely" for Obama.
   3894. Chicago Joe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4295690)
VA to Romney, I think.
   3895. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:25 PM (#4295691)
Watching last nights' Colbert Report now... Nate Silver is on!

He was also on The Daily Show a couple of weeks ago.
   3896. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:25 PM (#4295692)
Everything was going fine until my roommate sat down and started talking politics. This is painful.
   3897. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:25 PM (#4295693)
Obama might have won numerous personal elections including two presidential elections but he is absolutely horrible at getting his fellow Democrats elected.


Seems like the Dems are kicking ass in the Senate this cycle, no?
   3898. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:25 PM (#4295694)
Tammy Duckworth up by 12 over the biggest dick-head in Congress with 41% reporting. Chicagoist will lose its most commented on politician. Thank god.
   3899. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4295695)
Suck eggs, Maggie Brooks.
   3900. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4295696)
Don't laugh but I'm out to dinner, can someone tell me if Hanna or Lamb is ahead in the congressional race in northern ny?
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