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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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3901. Chicago Joe

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4295697)

As more Virginia precincts report, the Romney lead continues to shrink (45k) - still no Norfolk or Portsmouth.

Portsmouth is in.

3902. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4295698)

Allen West with a very small lead in his district. Just under 2,000 votes.

3903. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4295699)

Bastard! I turn to Fox and Karl Rove is on.

Too bad I couldn't time that to an appearance by Madeleine Albright.

3904. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:27 PM (#4295700)

No chance. 2000 wasn't that long ago and the lead isn't *that* big.

Looking at the map, the big red areas look to be done, with Broward and Miami-Dade lagging the state percentage. Obama has Florida and I suspect he'll pull out Virginia. Which, unless I'm forgetting a state, will make an identical map except for an Indiana flip.

3905. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:27 PM (#4295701)

This is the sort of night the Braves never deliver for me.

3906. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:27 PM (#4295702)

CBS news projects Fischer over Kerrey in NE.

3907. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:28 PM (#4295703)

Chris Matthews, that mic is hot!

3908. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:28 PM (#4295704)

Karl Rove with some spittle flying out of his mouth.

And of course Fox News segues to voter fraud in Ohio.

3909. Langer Monk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:28 PM (#4295705)

Portsmouth is in.

Only 2/32 precincts on the state site.

3910. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:28 PM (#4295706)

Big news in Wisconsin! Paul Ryan to return to the House.

3911. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:29 PM (#4295707)

I'm not saying Florida won't go Obama, but I think they'll be extra gunshy about calling that one.

3912. Chicago Joe

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:29 PM (#4295708)

Only 2/32 precincts on the state site.

CNN has 97% reporting.

3913. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:30 PM (#4295709)

Oof, that's brutal!

NBC in Pittsburgh goes to Tom Smith for his concession speech, Smith says, "Who would have thought?" and NBC cuts back to the studio anchor.

3914. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:30 PM (#4295710)

Bachmann race is close with 20% in.

3915. PreservedFish Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4295711)

ABC calls Wisconsin. Finally.

3916. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4295712)

I can see why CNN is waiting on DC. Romney is chipping away at Obama's lead. It is now 92-7 with 52% of the vote in.

3917. 'Spos Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4295713)

3911 Ha Ha Florida "gunshy"

3918. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4295714)

Hang on, Wisconsin is being led by Romney still with almost a 23% in? Why did so many people call Wisconsin so early? Should there be panic? Or...

3919. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4295715)

Do you know what would be awesome? When Romney gives his concession speech, he walks up to the podium, shouts "Baba Booey! Baba Booey! Howard Stern's penis!" and then just runs away.

3920. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4295716)

Don't laugh but I'm out to dinner, can someone tell me if Hanna or Lamb is ahead in the congressional race in northern ny?

Hanna up 60-40 with 24% counted

3921. Langer Monk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4295717)

CNN has 97% reporting.

Gotcha - they have different numbers than the state site 'in' - for instance CNN has much less of Fairfax reported.

3922. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4295718)

I'm not counting chickens, but if Obama wins, and takes Florida and/or Virginia, will watching Fox News be sorta like watching the Hawk Harrelson feed when the Sox lose?

3923. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4295719)

We don't need a shot of a laptop, CNN.

3924. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4295720)

"Holy cats - who is FOX's studio blonde? When they ended that Palin segment, they went back to her and she was staring into my soul - in a good way. Yowza."

If no other wounds are healed from this endless thread, at least let it be that Fox knows how to pick 'em. There's more to life than politics and baseball.

Meanwhile, Rove still all-in - spent 5 minutes touting how they win Ohio, but nothing on why not to be nervous in Florida, that I saw.

Would be fascinating twist if Romney gets must-have Ohio only to have flaky Florida fire the silver bullet.

On nights like this, it's good to be a moderate.
Good luck to y'all, but no we won't hand out trophies to all participants..

3925. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:33 PM (#4295721)

Can't find it Lassus. Sorry.

EDIT: Ah, found it!

Hanna up 60-40 with 24% counted

3926. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:33 PM (#4295722)

Wow ... NC only in Romney's camp by < 80k votes.

Didn't see that being that narrow.

3927. esseff Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4295723)

Looking at the map, the big red areas look to be done, with Broward and Miami-Dade lagging the state percentage. Obama has Florida and I suspect he'll pull out Virginia. Which, unless I'm forgetting a state, will make an identical map except for an Indiana flip.

3928. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4295724)

I hope to Christ you ain't talking about Peggy Noonan.

3929. zenbitz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:35 PM (#4295725)

Cthulhu shout out on last nights Daily Show.

3930. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:35 PM (#4295726)

I was late getting back there, but I'm guessing he meant Megyn?

3931. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:35 PM (#4295727)

NC

Oh yeah, big duh there.

3932. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:36 PM (#4295728)

Cthulhu shout out on last nights Daily Show.

That there was. Y'know, I have to wonder what Lovecraft would think of Obama. Probably not well.

3933. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:36 PM (#4295729)

I see my old Racine/Kenosha area is going hardcore Romney this year. Apparently all those Illinisians that fled Illinois because of taxes were Republicans. Go figure.

3934. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:36 PM (#4295730)

If no other wounds are healed from this endless thread, at least let it be that Fox knows how to pick 'em. There's more to life than politics and baseball.

Hear, hear. Amazing GF was supposed to be running a press conference in Fresno this morning, but instead had a tire go all shreddy on her, and is only recently back safe & sound in SF. She hadn't had any news & didn't give much of a crap (she already voted last week); she's glad enough to know BHO's going to win (although she voted Green); I'm glad she's alive & well & grumpy. PRIORITIES, goddammit.

3935. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4295731)

Heh, the ABC B-team anchor dude who likes like he's from Mad Men: "No matter who wins tonight, the speech will be about how Americans needs to come together and both sides need to unite to do what I want."

3936. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4295732)

Flip, late. Repost: Don't laugh but I'm out to dinner, can someone tell me if Hanna or Lamb is ahead in the congressional race in northern ny?

3937. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4295733)

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

CBS calls AZ for Romney.

Damn it, so far, no good ...

3938. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:38 PM (#4295734)

Also, I think Jeff Greenfield's stoned.

3939. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:38 PM (#4295735)

I am pretty damn happy with the results thus far... not thrilled or ecstatic - no real big shockers yet - but my optimistic projections are looking good so far... in fact - it looks like I might have undershot on the Pres map, as it looks like O 332 rather than 303.

My senate map looks perfect thus - in fact, I might miss low as Tester (at least per the exits) looks he just might hang on.

I'm doing REALLY well on my house map...

3940. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:38 PM (#4295736)

Hech w all that. Russia today cable has the hottest news babes
The alyona show is the best, crooked stocking seams, plenty cleavage, and a phd

3941. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:39 PM (#4295737)

Read closer Lassus.

3942. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:39 PM (#4295738)

Thanks, guys. Sucks, though.

3943. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:39 PM (#4295739)

I don't know if it is my tint settings on my TV or what but the women of Fox are pale as shvts taken after eating a box of powdered donuts. Give them some sun Fox.

3944. greenback

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:40 PM (#4295740)

Florida and Virginia just got a lot closer.

3945. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:41 PM (#4295741)

#### you Thomas Peterffy.

3946. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:41 PM (#4295742)

I really hate the immigrant growing up in a socialist country commercial. When it comes on I'm actually forced to listen to Fox News. Though it is funny that the satellite feed goes out when Robert Gibbs is on and talking to Fox.

3947. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:41 PM (#4295743)

I don't know if it is my tint settings on my TV or what but the women of Fox are pale as shvts taken after eating a box of powdered donuts.

Wait, does the latter actually happen? Isn't sugar digested fully or something? I really have no idea about how the body works.

3948. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:41 PM (#4295744)

"Holy cats - who is FOX's studio blonde? When they ended that Palin segment, they went back to her and she was staring into my soul - in a good way. Yowza."

Are you talking about Megyn Kelly? She's unbelievable. If she came to my house and whispered sweet conservative nothings into my ear, I don't see how I could resist.

Kelly just asked Rove a few minutes ago after Rove seemed so upbeat, "Are you just doing this to make yourself feel better?"

3949. greenback

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4295745)

"My concern for this nation grows greater," defeated Senate candidate Richard Mourdock says, tearfully. NPR's Sonari Glinton reports that the GOP candidate says he was "attacked for standing for my principles."

I was really hoping he would say losing was God's plan.

3950. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4295746)

NC looks like it's gone to Romney. I'm late figuring that out.

3951. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4295747)

I don't know if it is my tint settings on my TV or what but the women of Fox are pale as shvts taken after eating a box of powdered donuts. Give them some sun Fox.

Don't get no sun under the burqua.

3952. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4295749)

The Romney HQ has the excitement of a library.

3953. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4295750)

Florida and Virginia just got a lot closer.

Yeah, but Colorado didn't.

3954. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:44 PM (#4295751)

Are you talking about Megyn Kelly? She's unbelievable. If she came to my house and whispered sweet conservative nothings into my ear, I don't see how I could resist.

But...the b1tchface!, the b!tchface!

3955. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:44 PM (#4295752)

If Romney loses, I feel bad for him. He'll be unable to drink away his sorrow.

3956. Dock Ellis on Acid

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:44 PM (#4295753)

MSNBC says Minnesota for Obama.

3957. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:45 PM (#4295754)

MSNBC says MN for Obama.

Now? Christ, I think ABC called MI an hour ago ...

3958. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:45 PM (#4295755)

But...the b1tchface!, the b!tchface!

Turn. Her. Around.

3959. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:46 PM (#4295756)

I was late getting back there, but I'm guessing he meant Megyn?

I believe I was.

3960. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:46 PM (#4295757)

John King, as he goes over the Florida map from rural to urban areas: "now if you come down here where the people are." Ouch.

3961. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:46 PM (#4295758)

Are you talking about Megyn Kelly? She's unbelievable. If she came to my house and whispered sweet conservative nothings into my ear, I don't see how I could resist.

Smokin' hot.

3962. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:48 PM (#4295759)

I'm developing a crush for Erin Burnett. Loving her eyes.

3963. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:48 PM (#4295760)

Florida isn't done yet:

@ algore : I am confident in saying that President Obama is going to carry the state of Florida tonight. http://t.co/j8NJbPob #Current2012

3964. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4295761)

I'm developing a crush for Erin Burnett. Loving her eyes.

From her days over at CNBC, she doesn't like to shower ...

[edit] though even *since* those days at CNBC, she was my favorite of their "Money Honeys".

[edit/edit] make of that what you will ...

3965. Dock Ellis on Acid

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4295762)

MSNBC says Missouri goes to Romney

3966. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4295764)

I'm developing a crush for Erin Burnett. Loving her eyes.

YES.

3967. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4295765)

BTW - Thanks everyone. This thread has been very entertaining.

3968. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4295766)

Heh, I'm loving the ABC B-team dialogue with Robert Gibbs.

Female anchor - "Given that Boehner said taxes were off the table what exactly can Obama do?"
Gibbs - "He has lot of things he can do. And leverage at his disposal."

3969. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:50 PM (#4295767)

I'm developing a crush for Erin Burnett. Loving her eyes.

She reminds me of a brunette version of the mom from "Family Ties".
I like.

Megyn Kelly? Top Fox babe. I'd even listen to her talk about terrorist fist bumps and socialist policies.

3970. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:50 PM (#4295768)

Jesus Christ they still won't project DC to Obama. Why?

3971. Swoboda is freedom Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:50 PM (#4295769)

Now how is Joe Walsh going to pay the back child support?

3972. spike Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:50 PM (#4295770)

Akin concession speech on MSNBC - luuuuulzy.

3973. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4295771)

There's an actress from a movie I can't recall that she reminds me of. Erin that is.

3974. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4295772)

Jesus Christ they still won't project DC to Obama. Why?

Nobody's fingers are small enough to touch the little DC diamond on the touchscreen map.

3975. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4295773)

I'm developing a crush for Erin Burnett. Loving her eyes.

There's quite the line in front of you.

3976. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:52 PM (#4295774)

gotta love these concession speeches by Akin and Mourdock...

A loss is just a gift from god for having a pregnant yap

3977. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:54 PM (#4295775)

Walter Shapiro: "To get things done, Obama's going to have to show some leadership that he hasn't before and talk to the Republicans seriously, in a way in which they don't feel insulted."
Male anchor guy that doesn't like like he's from Made Men: "You mean not comparing them to a boil?"

Seriously, the ABC B-Team/Yahoo webcast crew is highly entertaining. And Greenfield is more stoned by the minute, I think he's eating brownies during commercials.

3978. greenback

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:54 PM (#4295776)

Obama with a good two minutes of vote reporting in FL and VA.

3979. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:54 PM (#4295777)

Holy cow. It really does look like Obama will win FL. I kept figuring Romney would still have notes coming in. O is up 35K but almost all that is left to report is heavily blue.

I'm shocked by that one.

3980. Shredder Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:55 PM (#4295778)

How much money did Sheldon Adelson just completely piss away? How many grifters did he make rich? How many real people could have been helped by all of that money he basically just lit on fire?

3981. Langer Monk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:55 PM (#4295779)

Difference of about 15k votes now in Virginia - still no Norfolk on the state site.... I think this will be a 50-75k Obama win.

3982. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:55 PM (#4295780)

Shortly after multiple networks projected that Republicans would retain control of the House, Speaker John Boehner took to the stage with a message that looked ahead to the battle over the fiscal cliff - the GOP isn't budging on taxes.

"With this vote, the American people have also made clear that there is no mandate for raising tax rates," Boehner told supporters at the Ronald Reagan building in Washington.

I'm pretty sure that's spin.

3983. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4295781)

FWIW, I agree that Obama should do better at dealing with Congress. Not giving in, but engaging. Yeah, I know the Rs aren't going to make it easy but, otherwise, he gets nothing done.

3984. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4295782)

AP calls NC for Romney.

3985. Gamingboy Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4295783)

It'll be interesting to see how much O is able to make up the popular vote once CA comes in.

(Oh, and now CNN mentions that)

3986. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4295784)

That cursive Elizabeth on Warren's podium right now? She stole it from a font, I bet.

3987. Adam M

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4295785)

Jesus Christ they still won't project DC to Obama. Why?

Nobody's fingers are small enough to touch the little DC diamond on the touchscreen map.

Awesome.

3988. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4295786)

Ms Kelly on Fox just now standing up, walked over to pat a guest on the back, then walked over to the 'big board' - impromptu - and said she was "afraid to touch it."

She did anyway, then said it was "exciting."

Not sure if they have retro PPV.

........

Chris Mathews re Erin Burnett from 2007, "you're a knockout"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKBDOLdU-Ug

many of you right-wingers might start taking Chris a little more seriously after seeing that clip...

3989. bunyon Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4295787)

"With this vote, the American people have also made clear that there is no mandate for raising tax rates," Boehner told supporters at the Ronald Reagan building in Washington.

I agree with this. It's also not a mandate to cut taxes.

3990. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:57 PM (#4295788)

Why would CNN send Crowly to the Republican headquarters?

They ####### hate her for #####-slapping Romney on "act of terror".

3991. zonk Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:57 PM (#4295789)

That cursive Elizabeth on Warren's podium right now? She stole it from a font, I bet.

Dude, she's full-blooded font...

3992. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:57 PM (#4295790)

There's an actress from a movie I can't recall that she reminds me of. Erin that is.

She kinda looks like a better looking version of the woman from Bones.

3993. GregD Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:57 PM (#4295791)

NBC calls kaine in va maybe others called earlier?

3994. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:57 PM (#4295792)

Dick Morris @DickMorrisTweet
#election2012 we really could win Fla, Ohio, NC, Va, and Col and win the ellection

3995. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:58 PM (#4295793)

now Fox has on Susan Estrich, the Dukakis campaign manager, channeling her inner Stephen Hawking voice without any actual physical ailment (except perhaps a 4-pack-a-day habit).

seems a little sour grapes at this point - "at least our women are hot!"
.........

"She kinda looks like a better looking version of the woman from Bones."

who is Zooey Deschanel's sister

3996. Best Regards, L.M. Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:58 PM (#4295794)

Obama down 15,000 in Virginia, no votes from Norfolk, where he won by 38,000 in 2008.

It's over.

3997. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:59 PM (#4295795)

I'm developing a crush for Erin Burnett. Loving her eyes.

There's quite the line in front of you.

Favorite Burnett moment was Chris Matthews lustily interviewing her.

Would have been about as creepy if I was interviewing her.

edit: Creepy Coke to Howie

3998. Liver of blaspheming 'zop Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:59 PM (#4295796)

George Allen proving that racial slurs caught on television are still career enders.

3999. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:00 AM (#4295797)

Why would CNN send Crowly to the Republican headquarters?

Because their pain, anger, and confusion are tremendously amusing to everyone who doesn't think that indoor plumbing is the devil's work.

4000. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:00 AM (#4295799)

I like Elizabeth Warren's rambling victory speech..err..consecutive sentence fragments, in which she continually emphasizes the odds she overcame to achieve victory in Massachusetts. If Romney only wrote one speech, I think Warren wrote zero.

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