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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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4001. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:00 AM (#4295800)

Denver Post calls CO for O.

4002. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:01 AM (#4295802)

PATRICK STEWART STARTS THE DAILY SHOW FTW!

4003. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:01 AM (#4295803)

One anchor says "Mazie Horono wins"
Other anchor "Who..uh...is...that race is?"

4004. Liver of blaspheming 'zop Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:01 AM (#4295804)

Elizabeth Warren - still an embarassment.

4005. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:02 AM (#4295805)

"edit: Creepy Coke to Howie"

my. best. Coke. ever.

4006. NTNgod Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:02 AM (#4295806)

now Fox has on Susan Estrich, the Dukakis campaign manager

Just recently, she did just as well representing Samsung in the their big case against Apple.

4007. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:02 AM (#4295807)

Why are they so obsessed with Florida at this point? Obama's won Colorado, so it's over.

4008. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:02 AM (#4295808)

this is how Nate Silver's projection have worked out so far

4009. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:03 AM (#4295809)

O at last in the lead in Wisconsin, which some had projected for him, even as he trailed.

4010. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:03 AM (#4295810)

And now my other blindly Obama hating roommate enters the frey. Once they call this I am retreating to my room.

4011. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:03 AM (#4295811)

Jon Stewart drops an f bomb live.

4012. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:04 AM (#4295813)

Elizabeth Warren - still an embarassment.

Does anyone have a whinier cadence in her speech than she does? I'd rather listen to Jennifer Tilly and Fran Drescher sing La Boheme. And I'm someone with a shitty voice.

4013. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4295814)

Romney finally wins a swinger --

NC, so says MSNBC.

4014. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4295815)

She kinda looks like a better looking version of the woman from Bones.

I just realized who I was thinking of. It is the neighbor from Mad Men who has a husband who cheated on her.

4015. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4295816)

this is how Nate Silver's projection have worked out so far

... exactly the same as RCP.

4016. Langer Monk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4295817)

I just realized who I was thinking of. It is the neighbor from Mad Men who has a husband who cheated on her.

Alexis Bledel?

4017. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4295818)

And now my other blindly Obama hating roommate enters the frey. Once they call this I am retreating to my room.

Odin might have something to say about that.
The Gods of My People are not amused.

4018. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4295819)

If you read this Jim, I assumed that was nannied!

4019. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:06 AM (#4295820)

A lot of the coverage on the net is terrible
Few updates, fl vote totals butno percent voting... Argh

4020. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:06 AM (#4295821)

And now my other blindly Obama hating roommate enters the frey. Once they call this I am retreating to my room.

Stay calm, ominous and menacing black panthers are being dispatched to your location. Do you require a handout, also?

4021. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:06 AM (#4295822)

And now my other blindly Obama hating roommate enters the frey. Once they call this I am retreating to my room.

Jim Frey for gay marriage!

4022. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:06 AM (#4295823)

... exactly the same as RCP.

Joe did you bother looking at the link?

4023. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:07 AM (#4295824)

And now my other blindly Obama hating roommate enters the frey. Once they call this I am retreating to my room.

Oh no, savor the sweet flavor of their ignorance, tears and ignorant fears ...

[edit] Oh, and never trust a Frey ...

4024. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:07 AM (#4295825)

Dianne Feinstein will be 85 at the end of the term to which she was just re-elected. Can't imagine she'll last more than one or two terms beyond that.

4025. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:08 AM (#4295826)

I just realized who I was thinking of. It is the neighbor from Mad Men who has a husband who cheated on her.

Anne Dudek, who was also Amber on House?

4026. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:08 AM (#4295828)

Elizabeth Warren - still an embarassment.

Hilarious!

4027. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:09 AM (#4295829)

Dianne Feinstein will be 85 at the end of the term to which she was just re-elected. Can't imagine she'll last more than one or two terms beyond that.

You can always count on the Dems to have... well... no backup plan whatsoever.

4028. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:09 AM (#4295830)

Jim Frey for gay marriage!

Walder Frey for inter-marriage!

4029. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:09 AM (#4295831)

Alexis Bledel?

No the original one. The neighbor of Hamm.

4030. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:09 AM (#4295832)

I think David Gergen just took a #### on air. That seemed to be his facial expression.

4031. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:09 AM (#4295833)

Dianne Feinstein will be 85 at the end of the term to which she was just re-elected. Can't imagine she'll last more than one or two terms beyond that.

Jerry Brown is ready to bring some fresh new blood to the Senate in CA.

4032. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:10 AM (#4295834)

CNN has O winning Iowa.

4033. Der_K Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:10 AM (#4295835)

I can't believe I didn't hear fox, CNN, and others declare kaine the winner until well after I watched Allen's concession speech.

4034. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:10 AM (#4295836)

Anne Dudek, who was also Amber on House?

Ugh, really? That kind of kills it.

4035. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:10 AM (#4295837)

I cannot for the life of me understand why they chose "Fly By Night" for that Jetta commercial.

4036. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:11 AM (#4295838)

CNN says Obama takes Iowa.

4037. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:11 AM (#4295839)

Joe did you bother looking at the link?

Yes. Nate hasn't missed yet, and neither has RCP, as far as I can tell.

4038. DKDC Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:11 AM (#4295840)

So next is Colorado? And then Nevada or Ohio is the clincher.

4039. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:11 AM (#4295841)

Walder Frey for inter-marriage!

Hard to lose your district if most of the population are your wives, daughters or wife-daughters.

4040. GregD Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:11 AM (#4295842)

NBC calls Iowa too

4041. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:11 AM (#4295843)

"Dianne Feinstein will be 85 at the end of the term to which she was just re-elected. Can't imagine she'll last more than one or two terms beyond that."

Jersey always beats any challenge.

Lautenberg turns 89 in January, and would be 90 days after being sworn in in 2014..

4042. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:11 AM (#4295844)

Who was that hot and smart blond on Fox? She was actually correct on the deal between GOP and Obama. Time to exile her I guess.

4043. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4295845)

This is a pole-axing of the GOP.

4044. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4295846)

ABC B-Team is excited that this is the most tweeted event in US political history. Duh.

4045. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4295847)

Yes. Nate hasn't missed yet, and neither has RCP, as far as I can tell.

Yeah that wasn't the point having that particular link. Lighten up.

4046. Greg (U)K Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4295848)

Hard to lose your district if most of the population are your wives, daughters or wife-daughters.

Craster for president?

4047. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4295849)

"Nate Silver is now projecting Hilary Clinton at 63% against Jeb Bush"

4048. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4295850)

Who was that hot and smart blond on Fox? She was actually correct on the deal between GOP and Obama. Time to exile her I guess.

Megyn Kelly?

SHE'S MINE! I SAW HER FIRST!

4049. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4295851)

and that's that

sigh

4050. spike Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4295852)

Iowa to Obama. nearly done now.

4051. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4295853)

So what do we think the chances are that Obama loses the popular vote. He's still trailing on the returns I'm seeing, but there's obviously a lot left to count on the Pacific?

4052. GregD Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4295854)

NBC calls Ohio for Obama

4053. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4295855)

So what are the technicalities that the poll-truthers will use to ignore Nate? Joe?

4054. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4295856)

Ballgame.

NBC just called Ohio... Obama at 274

4055. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4295857)

Ohio!

4056. Monty Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4295858)

I'm partly rooting for Obama and mostly rooting for a big enough margin that it doesn't come down to a Florida recount.

4057. Dock Ellis on Acid

Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4295859)

Fox calls OH for Obama

4058. Liver of blaspheming 'zop Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:14 AM (#4295860)

I'm in the office outside of "Democracy Plaza", and the cheers are annoyingly loud.

4059. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:14 AM (#4295861)

Ohio

Joe K loses the election

4060. Der_K Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:14 AM (#4295862)

Fox gave Ohio to obama

4061. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:14 AM (#4295863)

Ding! Fries are done.

4062. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:14 AM (#4295864)

Ay, oh, way to go, Ohio

4063. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4295865)

Fox calls Ohio for Obama.

Kelly: "What does that mean?"

the longest pregnant (ironically) pause ever from the Fox panel

now trying to rally with "but is this really a mandate?" action

Carl Cameron on Fox putting up a brave front, says now he can say that his insiders told him 2 hours ago that it's over

4064. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4295866)

[4052] That's it, then.

Game over man, game over!

4065. Fenderbelly is a leaf on the wind Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4295867)

BOOOOOOOOOm STICK! Hooray for competence!

4066. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4295868)

Cue up the "City of Blinding Lights", everyone.

4067. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4295869)

I already called Ohio.

4068. Monty Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:16 AM (#4295870)

Fox calls Ohio for Obama.

CNN is being surprisingly slow about it!

4069. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:16 AM (#4295871)

I think David Gergen just took a #### on air. That seemed to be his facial expression.

Haven't you seen David Gergen? He always kinda looks like he ate way too much black bean chili 3 hours ago.

4070. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:17 AM (#4295872)

Haven't you seen David Gergen? He always kinda looks like he ate way too much black bean chili 3 hours ago.

Maybe he has chronic bowel issues.

4071. Guapo Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:17 AM (#4295873)

PLEASE PROCEED GOVERNOR

4072. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:17 AM (#4295874)

HOPE! CHANGE! THINGS ARE GONNA BE TOTALLY DIFFERENT NOW!

4073. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:17 AM (#4295875)

Well, that's a relief.

4074. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4295876)

four more beers! four more beers!

4075. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4295877)

SHE'S MINE! I SAW HER FIRST!

Umm ... (Mouse slowly walks backward not making eye contact) ... sure. I am not talking about the blond in the white jacket btw, but the other one. But yeah she is pretty nice.

4076. Ray (RDP)

Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4295878)

I would also like to say that Ray has been in rare form these last two days. That's a compliment, btw....

Woohoo! I am writing my victory speech now. I only had the concession speech written.

4077. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4295879)

CNN calls the election for Obama. 11:18 PM ET.

4078. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4295880)

CNN HAS CALLED IT!

4079. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4295881)

Seems to be over.

4080. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4295882)

Oh, WSJ, if FOX News says it's OVER ... IT'S ####### OVER.

But I will enjoy the taste of your, sweet, sweet tears.

#####.

4081. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4295883)

No plans to rub this in (unless the circumstances call for it), but I'm legitimately looking forward, and not from a schadenfreude perspective but from a genuine curiosity, to see how Joe reacts to/explains this.

4082. PreservedFish Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4295884)

Is there a chance Obama loses the popular vote?

4083. Doris from Rego Park Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4295885)

CNN is being surprisingly slow about it!

yep, had it on cnn for a few minutes and wasn't sure why people were cheering outside.

drudge gonna push that popular vote

4084. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4295886)

CNN showed a live shot of Kenya.

4085. Mike A Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4295887)

Does this mean Gary Johnson didn't win? Fudge.

4086. Steve Treder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4295888)

Sweeeeeeeeeeeet.

4087. Langer Monk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4295889)

VA state site has Obama up now with 90% in, 4000 votes.

4088. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:20 AM (#4295890)

This is a beautiful moment on so many levels, but especially because the Latino vote kicked the Republicans right in their ####### teeth. I hope Mr. Self-Deportation is satisfied.

4089. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:20 AM (#4295891)

Woohoo! I am writing my victory speech now. I only had the concession speech written.

Agree with Lassus that RDP is killing it lately.

4090. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:20 AM (#4295892)

Good to see Fox News cannibalize Romney because he had the audacity to lose to Obama.

4091. Ray (RDP)

Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:20 AM (#4295893)

FOX has called it for Bammy.

4092. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:20 AM (#4295894)

My wife, sage of the couch, pointed out that she remembers going to bed about this time 12 years ago when CNN called it for Gore.

4093. phredbird

Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:20 AM (#4295895)

cnn calls it. i voted a little while ago. my polling place was very busy at 7 pm. lots of props to vote on.

4094. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:21 AM (#4295896)

Oh. Lookit. Apparently math still works, Joe.

4095. DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:21 AM (#4295897)

Is there a chance Obama loses the popular vote?

I doubt it. California's going to swap Romney coming up.

4096. Chicago Joe

Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:21 AM (#4295898)

Maybe he has chronic bowel issues.

He's covered, thanks to Obamacare!

4097. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4295899)

[4081] Appears [4094] has got you covered.

4098. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4295900)

I have not often posted in this thread over the past month, because it seemed as toxic as another baseball/politics area that I bailed on before that.

but for some reason, it seemed more clever and inviting in recent days - and never moreso than tonight, which surprises me.

and Bret Hume says voters ID'd +6 for Democrats.

Nate Silver, if he has any sense at all, will hit the Upper East Side AND the Village HARD tonight. His wildest dreams are nothing compared to his opportunities tonight. And that doesn't even count the baseball-geek fanboy pats on the back.

:)

4099. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4295901)

Is there a chance Obama loses the popular vote?

doubt it, Cali still has 30+ million people, doesn't it?

4100. Ray (RDP)

Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4295902)

CNN HAS CALLED IT!

Hang on. California isn't in yet. 55 electoral votes.

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OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

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