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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   4101. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4295903)
Is there a chance Obama loses the popular vote?


He won Calif. by 3 million four years ago. I don't think he'll get the 61-37 split he did then, but he should still win by a couple of million, which will put him ahead in the national vote.
   4102. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4295904)
"Afterbirth of the Bush years". Thank you, Fox news
   4103. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:23 AM (#4295905)
So what do we think the chances are that Obama loses the popular vote. He's still trailing on the returns I'm seeing, but there's obviously a lot left to count on the Pacific?


California has Obama down a million votes, but only 7% of California has reported(and nearly a million votes in that 7%). I think Obama wins the popular vote.
   4104. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:23 AM (#4295906)
In the end, it's going to turn out to be an average, mediocre campaign in hindsight. Didn't Nate note recently that based on the fundamentals and incumbency, with nothing to do with the candidates themselves, you'd expect Obama to win by 2-3 percentage points overall? That looks like just about where the popular vote will end up.
   4105. GregD Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:23 AM (#4295907)
Did CNN really cut to Kenya?
   4106. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:23 AM (#4295908)
Has someone checked on Joe?

Joe? Joe? Are you still with us? If you're on the floor, can you reach the phone?
   4107. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:23 AM (#4295909)
Still confident.
   4108. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:23 AM (#4295910)
Just think, Romney will be unable to drink away the sorrow.
   4109. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:24 AM (#4295911)
CNN REpublican is crying.
   4110. Monty Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:24 AM (#4295912)
Still confident.


That's the spirit!
   4111. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:24 AM (#4295913)
This is a beautiful moment on so many levels, but especially because the Latino vote kicked the Republicans right in their ####### teeth. I hope Mr. Self-Deportation is satisfied.


Republicans got a little testy about Obama's comments in that off the record Iowa news interview, but he was exactly right. If Republicans don't make a sea change in their approach to Latinos, they are going to get slaughtered in 2016.
   4112. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:24 AM (#4295914)
OBAMA WINS.

It is a good day.
   4113. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:25 AM (#4295915)
Hologram George Washington kills it.
   4114. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:25 AM (#4295916)
Did CNN really cut to Kenya?


twice
   4115. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:25 AM (#4295917)
Good to see Fox News cannibalize Romney because he had the audacity to lose to Obama.


That's actually not what I just heard. Brett (not Brit) said Obama won the election because he flat out won the campaign. Now of course, when other pundits appear over the next hour, they may take shots at Romney.
   4116. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:25 AM (#4295918)
We still don't know if Nate Silver was right!
   4117. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:26 AM (#4295919)
   4118. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:26 AM (#4295920)
We still don't know if Nate Silver was right!


Drama!
   4119. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:26 AM (#4295921)
Agree with Lassus that RDP is killing it lately.


Somebody *definitely* upgraded the "sense of humor" code on the RayBot 3.0 ...

Do Androids Dream of Open Mics?
   4120. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:26 AM (#4295922)
I actually kind of feel a bit bad for Joe, who fought the good fight while running on only one cylinder fueled by a case of Red Bull. But I can hardly wait to see what Will, Gerson, Krauthammer and Barone have to say tomorrow.
   4121. Bad Doctor Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:26 AM (#4295923)
Uh oh ... Chris Wallace reports Romney camp is refuting Ohio call. With Rove riding shotgun. Away we go ...
   4122. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:27 AM (#4295924)
This is a beautiful moment on so many levels, but especially because the Latino vote kicked the Republicans right in their ####### teeth. I hope Mr. Self-Deportation is satisfied.



Republicans got a little testy about Obama's comments in that off the record Iowa news interview, but he was exactly right. If Republicans don't make a sea change in their approach to Latinos, they are going to get slaughtered in 2016.


Will said on ABC that if the R nominee in 2020 wins exactly the same proportions of the various demographics he/she will lose by 14 million votes nationwide.


By the way, African-American candidates are now undefeated 2-0 in presidential campaigns.
   4123. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:27 AM (#4295925)
Agree with Lassus that RDP is killing it lately.


And Joe made a funny too.

Hope and change. They're real.
   4124. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:27 AM (#4295926)

yup, Romney camp not buying

"My wife, sage of the couch, pointed out that she remembers going to bed about this time 12 years ago when CNN called it for Gore."

   4125. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:27 AM (#4295927)
I'm not ready to celebrate, at all, because I'm like that; but Gamingboy's 4108 really did make me laugh quite out loud.

Also - and Dan will appreciate this - my GF's Progressive/Communist parents can't stand Obama, due to his war-like foreign policy. They're pissed.
   4126. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:27 AM (#4295928)
That's actually not what I just heard. Brett (not Brit) said Obama won the election because he flat out won the campaign. Now of course, when other pundits appear over the next hour, they may take shots at Romney.

When I had flipped to the channel some female was talking about how Obama was a big meanie to Romney who said mean things about Romney and wanted to "kill Romney" and Romney didn't fight back and stand up to the mean old bully.
   4127. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:28 AM (#4295929)
Did CNN really cut to Kenya?

twice


Librulmediabias.
   4128. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:29 AM (#4295930)
Nate deserves the kudos he gets. The stress he's been under the last few months must be overwhelming.

Me, I'm way less famous and less highly-paid, but if I miss badly, I shrug, move on with my life, and there's no corner of media saying what a terrible fraud I am. My biggest worry is convincing the girlfriend that I did not really sleep until 10 and not get any work done until 1 or 2.

   4129. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:29 AM (#4295931)
Wow, Hilary Clinton will be 77 when she leaves the White House in 2025.
   4130. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:29 AM (#4295932)
Uh oh ... Chris Wallace reports Romney camp is refuting Ohio call. With Rove riding shotgun. Away we go ...
Oh, please. Just give it up.
   4131. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:29 AM (#4295933)
Go ahead and dispute Ohio you ain't gonna win Colorado, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia.
   4132. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:29 AM (#4295934)
And Obama takes the lead in Va.
   4133. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:29 AM (#4295935)
Dick Morris is telling everyone not to give up.
   4134. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4295936)
Breaking it out by county and w his lead as of eleven Obama hasflorida and it won't be all that close
   4135. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4295937)
Also - and Dan will appreciate this - my GF's Progressive/Communist parents can't stand Obama, due to his war-like foreign policy. They're pissed.

Why are they actually pissed? Did they think Jill Stein was going to win?
   4136. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4295938)
Still confident.

Hang in there, Joe. I remember a friend of mine in 1972 who at midnight refused to admit that McGovern had lost.
   4137. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4295939)

Wow, Hilary Clinton will be 77 when she leaves the White House in 2025.


Cuomo disagrees.
   4138. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4295940)
but if I miss badly, I shrug, move on with my life, and there's no corner of media saying what a terrible fraud I am.


FRAUD!
   4139. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4295941)
Trippi not exactly convincing is his defense of OH being over (not that I disagree with it). Apparently the feeds the guys are getting are down.

Andy: Barone alert, he's gonna be on Fox soon. Can't believe I'm using my 3 TV set up (mainly for college football) for this.
   4140. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4295942)
It's a little clown shoes on fox right now.
   4141. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:31 AM (#4295943)
By the way, African-American candidates are now undefeated 2-0 in presidential campaigns.

4-0.
   4142. starving to death with a full STEAGLES Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:31 AM (#4295945)
look, noone should be that excited right now.

we're still ######. the last 2 years have been horrendous from a legislative point of view, and what did we get out of this election? democrats control the senate and executive, while republicans control the house.

so, we're in the same ####### place that we are right now.


there's nothing to be optimistic about here. happy? sure. at least now mitt romney won't have veto power. but optimistic? #### no. we're still in partisan hell, and there's no path to recovery from that. at least not as long as we have divided government.


jesus. $6 billion were spent on this election, and we're right the #### back where we were before it started.
   4143. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4295946)
From the FoxNews chat section:

How can you accept that America wants President Obama when the majority of Americans voted for Mitt Romney?


Short memories, I see.
   4144. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4295947)
When I had flipped to the channel some female was talking about how Obama was a big meanie to Romney who said mean things about Romney and wanted to "kill Romney" and Romney didn't fight back and stand up to the mean old bully.

Was that Jennifer Rubin or Kathleen Parker?
   4145. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4295948)
By the way, African-American candidates are now undefeated 2-0 in presidential campaigns.

4-0.


Black Bush?
   4146. Mefisto Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4295949)
In the end, it's going to turn out to be an average, mediocre campaign in hindsight. Didn't Nate note recently that based on the fundamentals and incumbency, with nothing to do with the candidates themselves, you'd expect Obama to win by 2-3 percentage points overall? That looks like just about where the popular vote will end up.


This would be a good point if Obama were white. His campaign had to make up that difference, probably about 2-3 percent.
   4147. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4295950)
Hang on... Carl Cameron said no word that Mitt is about to give a concession speech, and his campaign is still "frantically crunching the numbers."

"And let's talk a little bit about Ohio's recount rules."

No, Carl, let's not.
   4148. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4295952)
Republican narrative will be Romney wasn't a real conservative. Reality says that when "self-deportation" is your most moderate immigration position, you're going to get slaughtered in 2012. And to think it's a voting bloc that Republicans could really co-opt, especially on a lot of social issues. But in the end, as a party (not necessarily all individuals), they just hate brown people too much to do so.
   4149. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4295953)
Man, Steagles, way to bring down the jolly joke-making atmosphere!
   4150. PreservedFish Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4295954)
Everyone on CBS and ABC can't stop talking about whites vs minorities. Is that the story?
   4151. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4295955)
I'll probably give this election another half hour before I go to bed.

My wrap up of the media is that I liked CNN best. They had the best graphics and did virtually no interviews with partisan hacks from either side. They stuck with reporting about election returns by and large. I freaking hate it when they interview some rep from one of the politicians who simply say the same things over and over and have no desire to say anything that resembles the truth.
   4152. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:33 AM (#4295956)
Black Bush?

Don't you remember? Clinton was the first black president.
   4153. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:33 AM (#4295957)
Did Nate's adjusted polls miss any state by more than 1%?
   4154. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:34 AM (#4295958)
What is Fox News doing?
   4155. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:34 AM (#4295959)
Andy: Barone alert, he's gonna be on Fox soon. Can't believe I'm using my 3 TV set up (mainly for college football) for this.

Thanks, I'll check it out. You know me, I've been faithful to PBS all night.

BTW is that the Fox network or Fox News?
   4156. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:34 AM (#4295960)
Megyn Kelly on the move, check out those legs.
   4157. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:34 AM (#4295961)
Megyn Kelly is taking a walk.
   4158. Greg K Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:34 AM (#4295962)
Everyone on CBS and ABC can't stop talking about whites vs minorities. Is that the story?

That narrative sure did wonders for Jacques Parizeau.
   4159. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4295963)
Do the FOX people realize that Obama could well still win the Popular Vote, right?
   4160. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4295964)
Everyone on CBS and ABC can't stop talking about whites vs minorities. Is that the story?

You can't really argue with the numbers. It's a new world out there.
   4161. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4295965)
Don't you remember? Clinton was the first black president.


Yeah I remember. So 6-0?
   4162. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4295967)
FOX telling Romney it's over.
   4163. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:36 AM (#4295968)
'explain [karl's] theory'

this is surreal
   4164. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:36 AM (#4295969)
Everyone on CBS and ABC can't stop talking about whites vs minorities. Is that the story?


The Latino vote is becoming a bigger and bigger, and Republicans losing it is one clear reason why Romney has to write a speech tonight.
   4165. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:36 AM (#4295970)
I repeat: FOX telling Romney it's over.

FOX.
   4166. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:37 AM (#4295971)
Fox News, sorry, I only turn on Fox Network when they show MLB or college football.

Kelly with some good work (theater) here, blowing off Rove and Trippi (leaves set walks down hall) and interviewing the geeks in this war room who do the crunching. These two dudes, are like 'forget it, OH is over.'
   4167. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:37 AM (#4295972)
Everyone on CBS and ABC can't stop talking about whites vs minorities. Is that the story?


When I was listening to NPR it was as well. Changing demographics and how Romney killed himself with the Latino vote by trying to outdistance himself from one time front-runner Rick Perry.
   4168. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:38 AM (#4295973)
Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump

This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!



...
   4169. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4295974)
I just got a text message from a buddy saying he was sorry my guy lost. WTF?
   4170. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4295975)
Karl Rove is single-handedly trying to save the election!!

FOX News flying Clint Eastwood in to help.
   4171. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4295976)
Tim Martin ?@timmartinwhy
One of the Romney boys is making everyone look at what he can do on the nunchuks
   4172. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4295977)
look, noone should be that excited right now.

we're still ######. the last 2 years have been horrendous from a legislative point of view, and what did we get out of this election? democrats control the senate and executive, while republicans control the house.

so, we're in the same ####### place that we are right now.


there's nothing to be optimistic about here. happy? sure. at least now mitt romney won't have veto power. but optimistic? #### no. we're still in partisan hell, and there's no path to recovery from that. at least not as long as we have divided government.


jesus. $6 billion were spent on this election, and we're right the #### back where we were before it started.


I don't know. I don't think things will actually be good but Obama will be able to move a bit and I think the Rs will start seeing the writing on the wall. I think we don't exactly have peace in Congress but I think the next two years will be better than the last two.

It may be naivete but I really think you have to govern at some point.
   4173. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4295978)
We still don't know if Nate Silver was right!


If he isn't, does that mean Obama loses?
   4174. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4295979)

Yes, Megyn Kelly with a long - but not long enough - walk thru the Fox studios to have stat geeks still the final nail in Rove's coffin.

no question this gets PPV'd - Democrats will enjoy in ways that make them feel excited and creepy at the same time. beyond their wildest dreams

   4175. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:40 AM (#4295980)
This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!


Death, Taxes, and the losers of any election.
   4176. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:41 AM (#4295981)
Rove furiously scribbling on his white board. Scribble, Rove! Scribble scribble! We need you!
   4177. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:41 AM (#4295982)
Jose Canseco ?@JoseCanseco

Hate politics and government. So stupid
   4178. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:42 AM (#4295984)
Joe?

<crickets>

Joe?

<crickets>
   4179. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:42 AM (#4295985)
Karl Rove is single-handedly trying to save the election!!

More like Karl Rove is trying to single-handedly keep the ratings up for Fox News tonight.
   4180. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:42 AM (#4295986)
Someone needs to tell Karl Rove that Ohio doesn't matter.
   4181. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:42 AM (#4295987)
I've been out most of the evening, I'm going to have to re-read the last ten pages or so of the thread.
   4182. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:42 AM (#4295988)
From a non-Glenn Reynolds instapundit:

I HAVE QUESTIONS: We’re not a country of land or blood. We’re a country of beliefs. If we’ve lost that, who are we? Who am I? And where do I go?


A weird statement - We've never truly been a monoculture, and it's not like we've been a one-party state for a decade or something. Kind of odd to see soul-searching that doesn't actually question beliefs held, or try to figure out how to convert others, but is simply "where do I belong" not "maybe I should change."
   4183. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:43 AM (#4295990)
Rove is begging. Reduced to begging.
   4184. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:43 AM (#4295991)
Romney is stalling to write the concession speech.
   4185. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:43 AM (#4295992)
If he isn't, does that mean Obama loses?


How can we possibly know?!?!
   4186. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:43 AM (#4295993)
CNN says Romney isn't conceding yet. I guess he wants to hear that he lost VA or FL first....

It'll be interesting to see if he goes as graciously as Senator McCain did...
   4187. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:43 AM (#4295994)
jesus. $6 billion were spent on this election, and we're right the #### back where we were before it started.


I read a good point about this somewhere but I forget where...

That is 0.04% of the GDP. Considering the consequences, that doesn't seem unreasonable.
   4188. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:43 AM (#4295995)
I am taking way too much joy in Rove babbling.
   4189. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:44 AM (#4295996)
so, Obama is up by 1500 votes in Ohio now. How can they have already called it? Not that it is going to matter in the end.
   4190. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:44 AM (#4295997)
Someone needs to tell Karl Rove that Ohio doesn't matter.


Yup, some have started to call Colorado, and when Nevada falls, the lead will be Ohio-proof.
   4191. GregD Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:44 AM (#4295998)
I will give trump credit for his one gift , the commitment to being Donald trump at all times no matter the odds. A lesser man might slip into graciousness by accident but not for the Donald...
   4192. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:44 AM (#4295999)
Rove's theory: total count from '08, looking at what's left (total now) including the counties, explaining the margins, suggesting there are simply too many votes, Toledo went down to Ball State tonight, and too close a margin to make a 'call.'
   4193. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:44 AM (#4296000)
So wait, how close IS Nate going to get? Is he going to stick the landing?
   4194. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:44 AM (#4296001)
4179 - agreed McCoy.
   4195. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:45 AM (#4296002)
Getting closer with plenty of California and others still left:

O: 44,902,136 votes

R: 45,125,967 votes

   4196. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:45 AM (#4296004)
Romney campaign digging in
Won't concede Ohio
   4197. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:45 AM (#4296005)
We just watched the Rove bubble run face-first into reality.
   4198. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:45 AM (#4296006)
Don't know where the last votes to be counted are coming from, but those Ohio totals right now are wild. 1,500 dif out of 4.5 million.
   4199. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:45 AM (#4296007)
Charlotte ?@charlotte14N11
Went to check on mom she's throwing dishes and screaming the F word , she knows if her or dad get really sick w/ Obama they will die sad
   4200. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:46 AM (#4296008)

Rove not backing down - Bret Baer wonder if they will "send Megyn walking down again," as the couch potato crowd goes wild.

then segue to rally killer Charles Krauthammer on lack of a mandate.

this PPV will have to be carefully edited...

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