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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
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He won Calif. by 3 million four years ago. I don't think he'll get the 61-37 split he did then, but he should still win by a couple of million, which will put him ahead in the national vote.
California has Obama down a million votes, but only 7% of California has reported(and nearly a million votes in that 7%). I think Obama wins the popular vote.
Joe? Joe? Are you still with us? If you're on the floor, can you reach the phone?
That's the spirit!
Republicans got a little testy about Obama's comments in that off the record Iowa news interview, but he was exactly right. If Republicans don't make a sea change in their approach to Latinos, they are going to get slaughtered in 2016.
It is a good day.
twice
That's actually not what I just heard. Brett (not Brit) said Obama won the election because he flat out won the campaign. Now of course, when other pundits appear over the next hour, they may take shots at Romney.
Drama!
Somebody *definitely* upgraded the "sense of humor" code on the RayBot 3.0 ...
Do Androids Dream of Open Mics?
Republicans got a little testy about Obama's comments in that off the record Iowa news interview, but he was exactly right. If Republicans don't make a sea change in their approach to Latinos, they are going to get slaughtered in 2016.
Will said on ABC that if the R nominee in 2020 wins exactly the same proportions of the various demographics he/she will lose by 14 million votes nationwide.
By the way, African-American candidates are now undefeated 2-0 in presidential campaigns.
And Joe made a funny too.
Hope and change. They're real.
yup, Romney camp not buying
"My wife, sage of the couch, pointed out that she remembers going to bed about this time 12 years ago when CNN called it for Gore."
Also - and Dan will appreciate this - my GF's Progressive/Communist parents can't stand Obama, due to his war-like foreign policy. They're pissed.
When I had flipped to the channel some female was talking about how Obama was a big meanie to Romney who said mean things about Romney and wanted to "kill Romney" and Romney didn't fight back and stand up to the mean old bully.
Librulmediabias.
Me, I'm way less famous and less highly-paid, but if I miss badly, I shrug, move on with my life, and there's no corner of media saying what a terrible fraud I am. My biggest worry is convincing the girlfriend that I did not really sleep until 10 and not get any work done until 1 or 2.
Why are they actually pissed? Did they think Jill Stein was going to win?
Hang in there, Joe. I remember a friend of mine in 1972 who at midnight refused to admit that McGovern had lost.
Cuomo disagrees.
FRAUD!
Andy: Barone alert, he's gonna be on Fox soon. Can't believe I'm using my 3 TV set up (mainly for college football) for this.
4-0.
we're still ######. the last 2 years have been horrendous from a legislative point of view, and what did we get out of this election? democrats control the senate and executive, while republicans control the house.
so, we're in the same ####### place that we are right now.
there's nothing to be optimistic about here. happy? sure. at least now mitt romney won't have veto power. but optimistic? #### no. we're still in partisan hell, and there's no path to recovery from that. at least not as long as we have divided government.
jesus. $6 billion were spent on this election, and we're right the #### back where we were before it started.
Short memories, I see.
Was that Jennifer Rubin or Kathleen Parker?
Black Bush?
This would be a good point if Obama were white. His campaign had to make up that difference, probably about 2-3 percent.
"And let's talk a little bit about Ohio's recount rules."
No, Carl, let's not.
My wrap up of the media is that I liked CNN best. They had the best graphics and did virtually no interviews with partisan hacks from either side. They stuck with reporting about election returns by and large. I freaking hate it when they interview some rep from one of the politicians who simply say the same things over and over and have no desire to say anything that resembles the truth.
Don't you remember? Clinton was the first black president.
Thanks, I'll check it out. You know me, I've been faithful to PBS all night.
BTW is that the Fox network or Fox News?
That narrative sure did wonders for Jacques Parizeau.
You can't really argue with the numbers. It's a new world out there.
Yeah I remember. So 6-0?
this is surreal
The Latino vote is becoming a bigger and bigger, and Republicans losing it is one clear reason why Romney has to write a speech tonight.
FOX.
Kelly with some good work (theater) here, blowing off Rove and Trippi (leaves set walks down hall) and interviewing the geeks in this war room who do the crunching. These two dudes, are like 'forget it, OH is over.'
When I was listening to NPR it was as well. Changing demographics and how Romney killed himself with the Latino vote by trying to outdistance himself from one time front-runner Rick Perry.
...
FOX News flying Clint Eastwood in to help.
we're still ######. the last 2 years have been horrendous from a legislative point of view, and what did we get out of this election? democrats control the senate and executive, while republicans control the house.
so, we're in the same ####### place that we are right now.
there's nothing to be optimistic about here. happy? sure. at least now mitt romney won't have veto power. but optimistic? #### no. we're still in partisan hell, and there's no path to recovery from that. at least not as long as we have divided government.
jesus. $6 billion were spent on this election, and we're right the #### back where we were before it started.
I don't know. I don't think things will actually be good but Obama will be able to move a bit and I think the Rs will start seeing the writing on the wall. I think we don't exactly have peace in Congress but I think the next two years will be better than the last two.
It may be naivete but I really think you have to govern at some point.
If he isn't, does that mean Obama loses?
Yes, Megyn Kelly with a long - but not long enough - walk thru the Fox studios to have stat geeks still the final nail in Rove's coffin.
no question this gets PPV'd - Democrats will enjoy in ways that make them feel excited and creepy at the same time. beyond their wildest dreams
Death, Taxes, and the losers of any election.
<crickets>
Joe?
<crickets>
More like Karl Rove is trying to single-handedly keep the ratings up for Fox News tonight.
A weird statement - We've never truly been a monoculture, and it's not like we've been a one-party state for a decade or something. Kind of odd to see soul-searching that doesn't actually question beliefs held, or try to figure out how to convert others, but is simply "where do I belong" not "maybe I should change."
How can we possibly know?!?!
It'll be interesting to see if he goes as graciously as Senator McCain did...
I read a good point about this somewhere but I forget where...
That is 0.04% of the GDP. Considering the consequences, that doesn't seem unreasonable.
Yup, some have started to call Colorado, and when Nevada falls, the lead will be Ohio-proof.
O: 44,902,136 votes
R: 45,125,967 votes
Won't concede Ohio
Rove not backing down - Bret Baer wonder if they will "send Megyn walking down again," as the couch potato crowd goes wild.
then segue to rally killer Charles Krauthammer on lack of a mandate.
this PPV will have to be carefully edited...
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