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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
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5-0...Don't forget Harding.
By winning, HE LOST!!
edit: Another Coke for Howie.
And to DA Baracus
If it were just any one of these states, you could forgive a guy fighting it. But all of them? It's over.
I also always end up feeling bad for the loser. That has to be a gut punch to lose something this big.
cokes, despite my better efforts.
Yeah, this feels like a football game where it's 35-7 in the 3rd quarter, and Al Michaels is like, "Stay with us, interesting game here, oh look the loser is getting close to field goal range."
No surprise
Me too. Just imagine years of work and years of people telling you that you are going to win. Up to the last minute you have to believe you are going to win, and then bamm you lose. Yuck.
Fox knows this, and will keep it up. And as I type this, a well timed commercial break. You can't call them stupid.
It's just to fun to watch the panic set in. I'm not sure that their Hurricane Sandy coverage was this grim.
He's a winner among the casual crowd, but if RCP sticks the same landing - or within a margin of error - then it will be less of a cocky dance in the stat-geek community.
Cleveland/Toledo area and some areas in Central Ohio-Zanesville? Lancaster?
With Colorado and Nevada, Obama doesn't need any of the three to win.
Arizona predicted 53-46, currently 56-43
New Mexico predicted 53-47 currently 53-43 (4% independent?)
Nevada predicted 52-47 currently 54-44
These are all with ~63% reporting.
Washington has legalized marijuana and has gay marriage leading.
Yep, this election was a nice little stimulus package.
Florida will be the difference, one way or the other. RCP had it Romney to the end; Silver had Obama by a thin whisker.
Johnson is their former governor.
Not that it means anything in relation to the election, but the Monday Night Miracle where the Jets came back on the Dolphins from 30-7 down, Arnold Schwartzenegger was a guest in the booth and he said the Jets would pull out the win. Of course.
Well, I'd assume that's a whole lot of 4% to Johnson, he *is* a former NM Governor, after all ...
[edit] dammit, coke to bunyon.
It's like saving one more present for Dec. 26th.
Not in DC. You guys got all our money that we usually get. Thanks a lot, bastards.
Fox on aIr guys refusing to accept obama win
Trump asks for a revolution
Not kidding
O has dem cuyahoga votes coming in
Here.
It's like saving one more present for Dec. 26th.
Apparently they never announced it but they gave it to him already.
Perfect.
Thank you.
Simple but awesome. Thank you.
Doesn't matter. Obama's won enough even without it. And it'll turn back to Obama before long depending on where the remaining votes are.
Thanks Lassus, I did not know that but am glad that I do.
Remember that when you claim he has to govern. How?
But that can't be. Andy told us that every place that has voted on it doesn't want it.
EDIT: And Morty gets a Rum and Coke, with lime.
That was not his point in the previous segment.
for those who confuse the two, Barone LOVES political history and roots for Republicans. But this is another data point or 1,000 for him to enjoy dissecting.
Rove raised a zillion dollars from the sort of fellas who expect a return on their investment.
be not confused...
Thanks Lassus, I did not know that but am glad that I do.
Ditto.
There is NO mandate. The government is split reflecting the deep divisions in the people. Anyone, R or D, who goes into the next two years acting as if they have a big mandate and are beloved is a fool.
Remember that when you claim he has to govern. How?
Hey, if I knew how, I wouldn't be sitting here on BBTF. It may not be possible. And I say that as much to the Rs in the House as the President. Obama was re-elected but he isn't nearly as popular and liked as he was 4 years ago. Acting like he's been given some big victory will be an over-reach.
And I say this as someone who is happy he was re-elected.
I was actually AT that game. Up in the top row of the Meadowlands. It was awesome. Vinny Testaverde unleashed! Jumbo Elliot TD on tackle eligible play!
Deserves got nothing to do with it, it seems ...
eat it mitten, equality is more important then money
This is what absolutely blows my mind about America every single 4 years.
Nate figures Obama pulling out the popular vote as well:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/live-blog-the-2012-presidential-election/?src=twt&twt=fivethirtyeight#math-favors-obama-in-popular-vote
I will say that might well be (not that it matters) in part because a much larger pct than ever before voted early - often even before the first Presidential debate.
Is there ever a point at which early voting gets "too early?"
Food for thought, because if we ever get a late-arriving "October surprise" that for once would be legit, could we be stuck with someone who - on Election Day itself - would have lost only the popular vote but also the Electoral College?
UPDATE: Fox lackey Carl Cameron hinting that Romney "as a man of honor" will concede eventually. He seems like a guy who just lost a powerful insider gig in a Romney administration, for some reason.
Baer= Fox News (w Megyn Kelly) who wants to watch Shep.
Now it's not even acknowledging the Obama victory and is no less of a party organ than the NRO. What happened there?
He hurt Republican feelings with comments he made years ago and so the Republicans pressured him to resign instead of care about the actual needs of the country.
Hey, I got citations!
EDIT: And Morty gets a Rum and Coke, with lime.
Sure. But that doesn't mean ruling by fiat and not ever talking, directly, with the congress-critters. The blame is at least half on the House (I'd say more, but it's a bias). He has to try a new approach. I expect him to try to govern, which means dealing with all the folks that got elected.
The idea that he has some surplus of political capital that the House should fear is dumb. And vice versa.
That's all I'm saying.
If Rove changed his tune after you guys convinced me to turn over, I'm sorry I missed it. The last little bit I heard from him sounded pretty reasonable. I DO think the networks called OH too early, knowing that, even if they got it wrong, it was unlikely to change to overall outcome. Get that call in before folks go to bed then.
It makes you think what would happen if politicians went back to the 50 state game plans that they used to have 40 and 50 years ago.
If there's a god....
Hey Mitt, this one's for you.
Bloomberg News ?@BloombergNews Republicans to hold most governor's offices since 2000 with four wins #election2012
....
Americans are SO passive-aggressive
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