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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   4201. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:46 AM (#4296009)
Don't you remember? Clinton was the first black president.


5-0...Don't forget Harding.
   4202. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:46 AM (#4296010)
Charles Krauthammer beating the "no mandate" drum.
   4203. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:46 AM (#4296011)
Just so you know. Charles Krauthammer says that the real story of the night is that Obama doesn't have a mandate.

By winning, HE LOST!!

edit: Another Coke for Howie.

And to DA Baracus
   4204. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:46 AM (#4296012)
1500 votes separate Romney and Obama in Ohio.
   4205. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:47 AM (#4296013)
CNN is dissembling a bit about OH. I'm not sure how they've called that already. But King does a good job nailing that VA and FL are likely gone from Romney as well.

If it were just any one of these states, you could forgive a guy fighting it. But all of them? It's over.


I also always end up feeling bad for the loser. That has to be a gut punch to lose something this big.
   4206. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:48 AM (#4296014)
Judging from Twitter, everyone is switching to Fox.
   4207. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:48 AM (#4296015)
Anyone else have interesting non-national races? I'm hoping to see Brian Bilbray lose in CA50...
   4208. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4296016)
Krauthammer: no mandate, nothing's changed, gridlock. Obama won't have anywhere to go. Went big the first term while he had the House, went small post '10, and campaigned small. He is not Clinton, he won't be a moderate like Clinton 2nd term, more of the same. Country will slide in 2nd term, weak 2nd term. Admits a dire outlook. No remarks on being wrong on election. Didn't trash Romney or his campaign. Did call the field of Rs weak, Romney was only remotely strong candidate. Optimistic about the 'bench.'

cokes, despite my better efforts.
   4209. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4296017)
More like Karl Rove is trying to single-handedly keep the ratings up for Fox News tonight.


Yeah, this feels like a football game where it's 35-7 in the 3rd quarter, and Al Michaels is like, "Stay with us, interesting game here, oh look the loser is getting close to field goal range."
   4210. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4296018)
I make Obama winning va, fl, and oh, but all close enuf that the r play will be to drag it out deny legitimacy, claim theft, and so on

No surprise
   4211. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4296019)
There goes Nevada.
   4212. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4296020)
I also always end up feeling bad for the loser. That has to be a gut punch to lose something this big.


Me too. Just imagine years of work and years of people telling you that you are going to win. Up to the last minute you have to believe you are going to win, and then bamm you lose. Yuck.
   4213. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4296021)
Hang on. They might bring Michael Barone in to sit with Karl.
   4214. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4296022)
Judging from Twitter, everyone is switching to Fox.


Fox knows this, and will keep it up. And as I type this, a well timed commercial break. You can't call them stupid.
   4215. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4296023)
Does anyone have a live feed link for a FOX News stream?
   4216. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4296024)
Judging from Twitter, everyone is switching to Fox.


It's just to fun to watch the panic set in. I'm not sure that their Hurricane Sandy coverage was this grim.
   4217. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4296025)
"So wait, how close IS Nate going to get? Is he going to stick the landing?"

He's a winner among the casual crowd, but if RCP sticks the same landing - or within a margin of error - then it will be less of a cocky dance in the stat-geek community.

   4218. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4296026)
Don't know where the last votes to be counted are coming from, but those Ohio totals right now are wild. 1,500 dif out of 4.5 million.

Cleveland/Toledo area and some areas in Central Ohio-Zanesville? Lancaster?
   4219. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4296027)
I make Obama winning va, fl, and oh, but all close enuf that the r play will be to drag it out deny legitimacy, claim theft, and so on


With Colorado and Nevada, Obama doesn't need any of the three to win.
   4220. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4296028)
From Arizona, Flake wins. So does Sheriff Joe.
   4221. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4296029)
Nate's biggest "misses" from partial data:

Arizona predicted 53-46, currently 56-43
New Mexico predicted 53-47 currently 53-43 (4% independent?)
Nevada predicted 52-47 currently 54-44

These are all with ~63% reporting.


   4222. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4296030)
Anyone else have interesting non-national races?


Washington has legalized marijuana and has gay marriage leading.
   4223. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4296031)
Trump scrambling to arrange a 4th debate to occur at midnight.
   4224. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4296032)
$6 billion were spent on this election, and we're right the #### back where we were before it started.


Yep, this election was a nice little stimulus package.
   4225. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4296033)
I still don't think they've called DC....
   4226. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4296034)
Msnbc just made fun of rove
   4227. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4296035)
Nate Silver is possibly a witch.
   4228. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4296036)
He's a winner among the casual crowd, but if RCP sticks the same landing - or within a nargin of error - then it will be less of a cocky dance in the stat-geek community.


Florida will be the difference, one way or the other. RCP had it Romney to the end; Silver had Obama by a thin whisker.
   4229. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4296037)
New Mexico predicted 53-47 currently 53-43 (4% independent?)

Johnson is their former governor.
   4230. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4296038)
So in Krauthammer's world there is no fiscal cliff that Obama can use as leverage? Dude was reaching, but he was not as entertaining as Rove.
   4231. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4296039)
Yeah, this feels like a football game where it's 35-7 in the 3rd quarter, and Al Michaels is like, "Stay with us, interesting game here, oh look the loser is getting close to field goal range."


Not that it means anything in relation to the election, but the Monday Night Miracle where the Jets came back on the Dolphins from 30-7 down, Arnold Schwartzenegger was a guest in the booth and he said the Jets would pull out the win. Of course.
   4232. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4296040)
New Mexico predicted 53-47 currently 53-43 (4% independent?)


Well, I'd assume that's a whole lot of 4% to Johnson, he *is* a former NM Governor, after all ...

[edit] dammit, coke to bunyon.
   4233. GregD Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4296041)
Have they called Marylands gay marriage vote?
   4234. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4296042)
god dammit jackie won a congress seat, she is worthless I hate indiana right now. the only saving grace is that there too ####### dumb to realize lugar was a much better option then the moron mourdock. I would have voted for him again oh well, senate counts more then congress
   4235. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4296043)
Again, in the stat-geek community, does Nate beat RCP is the other item of interest

   4236. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4296044)
I still don't think they've called DC....


It's like saving one more present for Dec. 26th.
   4237. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4296045)
Yep, this election was a nice little stimulus package.

Not in DC. You guys got all our money that we usually get. Thanks a lot, bastards.
   4238. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4296046)
I also always end up feeling bad for the loser. That has to be a gut punch to lose something this big.


Me too. Just imagine years of work and years of people telling you that you are going to win. Up to the last minute you have to believe you are going to win, and then bamm you lose. Yuck.


Fox on aIr guys refusing to accept obama win
Trump asks for a revolution
Not kidding
O has dem cuyahoga votes coming in
   4239. Bad Doctor Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:53 AM (#4296047)
MSNBC calls Fox News on-air personalities' call to refuse to call Ohio for Obama. No, really.
   4240. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:53 AM (#4296048)
Does anyone have a live feed link for a FOX News stream?


Here.
   4241. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:53 AM (#4296049)

It's like saving one more present for Dec. 26th.


Apparently they never announced it but they gave it to him already.
   4242. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:53 AM (#4296050)
Ohio is red.
   4243. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:53 AM (#4296051)
Barone on the set facing off with Rove.
   4244. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:53 AM (#4296052)
Man, once you get outside the swing states, it seems as if every other state is a major landslide one way or the other.
   4245. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:53 AM (#4296053)
Rove is talking about "space cowboys."
   4246. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:54 AM (#4296054)
I'm not sure if this has been covered here somewhere, probably has, but gay marriage is up in every single state so far. I think I might cry.
   4247. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:54 AM (#4296055)
Well, I've got a couple things to write, so heading to bed. Thanks for the entertaining discussion tonight, guys! Well, not the guys on my ignore list, but the other 99% of you were a fun bunch tonight.
   4248. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:54 AM (#4296056)
Here.


Perfect.

Thank you.
   4249. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:55 AM (#4296057)
FOX is must-see TV. Rove vs. the math guys.
   4250. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:55 AM (#4296058)
Nate Silver is possibly a witch.


Simple but awesome. Thank you.
   4251. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:55 AM (#4296059)
There is NO mandate. The government is split reflecting the deep divisions in the people. Anyone, R or D, who goes into the next two years acting as if they have a big mandate and are beloved is a fool.
   4252. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:55 AM (#4296060)
   4253. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:55 AM (#4296061)
Barone running laps here, no sweating.
   4254. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:56 AM (#4296062)
Ohio is red.


Doesn't matter. Obama's won enough even without it. And it'll turn back to Obama before long depending on where the remaining votes are.
   4255. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:56 AM (#4296063)
gay marriage is up in every single state so far.


Thanks Lassus, I did not know that but am glad that I do.
   4256. PreservedFish Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:57 AM (#4296064)
Is Fox News as hilarious as everyone makes it out to be? I've never watched.
   4257. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:57 AM (#4296065)
Rove accusing FOX of calling Ohio for... ratings.
   4258. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:57 AM (#4296066)
Now that the gap has expanded to 29,000, Rove is saying he's just looking out for the good of the network for calling a race when it was so close. Which is a valid point if it was his original point, but it wasn't.
   4259. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:57 AM (#4296067)
There is NO mandate. The government is split reflecting the deep divisions in the people. Anyone, R or D, who goes into the next two years acting as if they have a big mandate and are beloved is a fool.


Remember that when you claim he has to govern. How?
   4260. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:57 AM (#4296068)
I'm not sure if this has been covered here somewhere, probably has, but gay marriage is up in every single state so far. I think I might cry.

But that can't be. Andy told us that every place that has voted on it doesn't want it.
   4261. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:57 AM (#4296069)
I'm listening to Rove and I think he's right. I think OH is called too early. I think Obama will win it and I think it won't really matter. But based on how careful they've all been on some earlier states, they've called OH too early.
   4262. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:58 AM (#4296070)
#4251. Sure in one sense, but winning is winning. You have to try to govern, landslide or not, mandate or not.

EDIT: And Morty gets a Rum and Coke, with lime.
   4263. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:58 AM (#4296071)
I'm listening to Rove and I think he's right. I think OH is called too early. I think Obama will win it and I think it won't really matter. But based on how careful they've all been on some earlier states, they've called OH too early.


That was not his point in the previous segment.
   4264. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:59 AM (#4296072)
Marijuana has been legalized in Washington State! Sorry, Philippines, but Tim Lincecum is going to be busy over the next few months!
   4265. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:59 AM (#4296073)
Barone like a counselor working Rove through the first stages of grief.

for those who confuse the two, Barone LOVES political history and roots for Republicans. But this is another data point or 1,000 for him to enjoy dissecting.

Rove raised a zillion dollars from the sort of fellas who expect a return on their investment.

be not confused...

   4266. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:59 AM (#4296074)
So the Romney crowd is booing and heckling. Classy. You guys need a drink.
   4267. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:00 AM (#4296075)
I can't even bring myself to post Doris's (Hey dude, thanks for the bases!) awesome FOX picture link on Facebook yet, I'm too superstitious.
   4268. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:00 AM (#4296076)
gay marriage is up in every single state so far.



Thanks Lassus, I did not know that but am glad that I do.


Ditto.

There is NO mandate. The government is split reflecting the deep divisions in the people. Anyone, R or D, who goes into the next two years acting as if they have a big mandate and are beloved is a fool.



Remember that when you claim he has to govern. How?


Hey, if I knew how, I wouldn't be sitting here on BBTF. It may not be possible. And I say that as much to the Rs in the House as the President. Obama was re-elected but he isn't nearly as popular and liked as he was 4 years ago. Acting like he's been given some big victory will be an over-reach.

And I say this as someone who is happy he was re-elected.
   4269. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:01 AM (#4296077)
Listening to Shep Smith is fantastic entertainment right now.
   4270. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:01 AM (#4296078)
but the Monday Night Miracle where the Jets came back on the Dolphins from 30-7 down, Arnold Schwartzenegger was a guest in the booth and he said the Jets would pull out the win. Of course.


I was actually AT that game. Up in the top row of the Meadowlands. It was awesome. Vinny Testaverde unleashed! Jumbo Elliot TD on tackle eligible play!
   4271. Langer Monk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:01 AM (#4296079)
Virginia has to be called soon I think for Obama. State site, with 95% in, has a 52,500 lead. I think the only delay is the Beach vote - Romney's beating McCain, but I don't think there are enough votes outstanding.
   4272. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:02 AM (#4296080)
drudge with an asterisk!
   4273. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:04 AM (#4296081)
Oh, Brett Baer, you're a giant ####.
   4274. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:04 AM (#4296082)
There's a civil war going on between Shep Smith, the numbers dorks and the control room on Fox.
   4275. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:05 AM (#4296083)
Van Jones is a CNN contributor. I seem to recall there was a scandal with him, but I can't recall what.
   4276. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:05 AM (#4296084)
where can I find a list of the legalization of pot votes? I knew oregon colorado and arkansas had it, and apparently from reading this thread that washinton legalized it. anyone one need a roomate in washinton
   4277. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:05 AM (#4296085)
From a party to a funeral.
   4278. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:06 AM (#4296086)
Why is it not surprising that the Republican nominee has decided that math isn't a good enough explanation for calling Ohio?
   4279. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:06 AM (#4296087)
Damn, why am I getting Brett Baer instead of Shep Smith?

Deserves got nothing to do with it, it seems ...
   4280. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:06 AM (#4296088)
so at this point romney seems to be a sore loser. wont admit defeat what a little #####. yes i have been drinking.

eat it mitten, equality is more important then money
   4281. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:06 AM (#4296089)

Man, once you get outside the swing states, it seems as if every other state is a major landslide one way or the other.


This is what absolutely blows my mind about America every single 4 years.
   4282. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4296090)
Nevada called for O.
   4283. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4296091)

Nate figures Obama pulling out the popular vote as well:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/live-blog-the-2012-presidential-election/?src=twt&twt=fivethirtyeight#math-favors-obama-in-popular-vote

I will say that might well be (not that it matters) in part because a much larger pct than ever before voted early - often even before the first Presidential debate.

Is there ever a point at which early voting gets "too early?"

Food for thought, because if we ever get a late-arriving "October surprise" that for once would be legit, could we be stuck with someone who - on Election Day itself - would have lost only the popular vote but also the Electoral College?

UPDATE: Fox lackey Carl Cameron hinting that Romney "as a man of honor" will concede eventually. He seems like a guy who just lost a powerful insider gig in a Romney administration, for some reason.

   4284. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4296092)
What was Nate's final EC prediction before the election, does anyone remember?
   4285. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4296093)
Shep = Fox Network
Baer= Fox News (w Megyn Kelly) who wants to watch Shep.
   4286. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4296094)
Has anyone else noticed that Drudge just totally isn't what it used to be? And I say this as a right-leaning guy. BITD, it was certainly tending toward the right, but not cheerleading or ideological. Just had a ####-all attitude, more libertarian than Republican, and poked fun at everybody.

Now it's not even acknowledging the Obama victory and is no less of a party organ than the NRO. What happened there?
   4287. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4296095)
Van Jones is a CNN contributor. I seem to recall there was a scandal with him, but I can't recall what.


He hurt Republican feelings with comments he made years ago and so the Republicans pressured him to resign instead of care about the actual needs of the country.
   4288. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:08 AM (#4296096)
and apparently from reading this thread that washinton legalized it.


Hey, I got citations!
   4289. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:08 AM (#4296097)
Where is George Will's bow-tie?
   4290. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:08 AM (#4296098)
Really they just said Romney will be a major power in the GOP post loss? Really? I think not.
   4291. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:08 AM (#4296099)
Just switched to Fox and immediately got a PERFECT "he didn't lose because because the public rejected the conservative positions, he lost because he wasn't conservative enough."
   4292. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:08 AM (#4296100)
#4251. Sure in one sense, but winning is winning. You have to try to govern, landslide or not, mandate or not.

EDIT: And Morty gets a Rum and Coke, with lime.


Sure. But that doesn't mean ruling by fiat and not ever talking, directly, with the congress-critters. The blame is at least half on the House (I'd say more, but it's a bias). He has to try a new approach. I expect him to try to govern, which means dealing with all the folks that got elected.

The idea that he has some surplus of political capital that the House should fear is dumb. And vice versa.

That's all I'm saying.


If Rove changed his tune after you guys convinced me to turn over, I'm sorry I missed it. The last little bit I heard from him sounded pretty reasonable. I DO think the networks called OH too early, knowing that, even if they got it wrong, it was unlikely to change to overall outcome. Get that call in before folks go to bed then.
   4293. thok Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:09 AM (#4296101)
Has anybody mentioned that Michelle Bachmann is in a seriously close fight for her House seat right now? It's a difference of a few hundred votes right now.
   4294. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:10 AM (#4296102)
"Clint Eastwood" came up on my Pandora. Good timing.
   4295. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:10 AM (#4296103)
This is what absolutely blows my mind about America every single 4 years

It makes you think what would happen if politicians went back to the 50 state game plans that they used to have 40 and 50 years ago.
   4296. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:10 AM (#4296104)
Has anybody mentioned that Michelle Bachmann is in a seriously close fight for her House seat right now? It's a difference of a few hundred votes right now.


If there's a god....
   4297. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:10 AM (#4296105)
Well, FOX News calls CO for Obama.

Hey Mitt, this one's for you.
   4298. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:10 AM (#4296106)
Audrey Vero ?@ffaudrey
I'm really glad my parents are in the Cayman Islands right now because I would not like to hear my dad going off about Obama.
   4299. SteveF Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:11 AM (#4296107)
First important test is the fiscal cliff. Does anyone think they won't just kick the can down the road and continue to run deficits?
   4300. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:11 AM (#4296108)

Bloomberg News ?@BloombergNews Republicans to hold most governor's offices since 2000 with four wins #election2012

....

Americans are SO passive-aggressive

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