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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   4301. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:11 AM (#4296109)
A national popular vote for President is needed. The electoral college was designed for a much different, less connected world.
   4302. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:12 AM (#4296110)
I really like Megyn's hairstyle.
   4303. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:12 AM (#4296111)
Why the need for Romney to concede quickly. Put it on TiVo and go to bed if you need to. I think waiting a bit to be absolutely sure makes sense.

Again, he's going to lose. Has, in fact, lost. But real life need not move at Twitter speeds.
   4304. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:12 AM (#4296112)
So I haven't checked, specifically. Can I assume that Nate hit it out of the park?
   4305. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4296113)
Man, once you get outside the swing states, it seems as if every other state is a major landslide one way or the other.


This is what absolutely blows my mind about America every single 4 years.


Yeah, my folks live in Wyoming, and even I can tell you with near certainty where the 127 Ds live (some in Jackson, Teton county the lone co. that goes blue, and a handful in Laramie where U of Wyoming is located).

   4306. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4296114)
Rove raised a zillion dollars from the sort of fellas who expect a return on their investment.

That's another sweet thought to carry into slumberland. Of course all that money poured into the Romney campaign is probably about 1% of what those dudes made in the stock market over the past four years.
   4307. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4296115)
If Rove changed his tune after you guys convinced me to turn over, I'm sorry I missed it. The last little bit I heard from him sounded pretty reasonable. I DO think the networks called OH too early, knowing that, even if they got it wrong, it was unlikely to change to overall outcome. Get that call in before folks go to bed then.


His original point was that voting totals were down compared to 2008 and directly implied that vote totals were being held back to make it look like Obama won. It never crossed his mind that maybe fewer people voted and that maybe it was because they were tired of people like him making Ohio a cesspool battle ground.
   4308. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4296116)
I'm really glad my parents are in the Cayman Islands right now because I would not like to hear my dad going off about Obama.


Well, I'm glad my parents are in Reno tonight, but they're going to be here this this weekend, and I know I'm going to get the Glenn Beck Special.

Sigh.
   4309. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4296117)
What is the protocol if the election is not close? That the loser concede before the winner gives his speech?
   4310. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4296118)
Without checking because I am lazy, someone last page posted his biggest misses were overestimating R votes in AZ, NM and NV.

edit - Ray, 4304
   4311. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:14 AM (#4296119)
VA and Colorado being called now too. So even if Rove is right for some reason, Obama is still prez.
   4312. spike Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:14 AM (#4296120)
"Romney wasn't negative enough" - comedy gold.
   4313. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:14 AM (#4296121)
I really like Megyn's hairstyle.
I like her everything. Even when she's saying all sorts of silly things, I just think, "Oh, you!" and swoon a little.
   4314. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:14 AM (#4296122)
I don't know. I don't think things will actually be good but Obama will be able to move a bit and I think the Rs will start seeing the writing on the wall. I think we don't exactly have peace in Congress but I think the next two years will be better than the last two.

It may be naivete but I really think you have to govern at some point.
yes, you are. but you have plenty of company in that.

when you say that you think they have to govern, what you miss, is that their entire party is centered around the belief that government is evil. they don't believe in smaller, or more efficient government, they believe in bathtub government, as in, they want to shrink the federal government to the point where they can drown it in a bathtub.


   4315. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:14 AM (#4296123)
Have they called Marylands gay marriage vote?


Up just 45000 with Montgomery County 100% reported and the African-American and rich conservative suburbs still to come in. Not that matters. If history is any guide, it will be attempted again next year or imposed from above. The ability of the state to enforce new discrimination standards against its competing bodies and assume new responsibilities in custody cases is too tempting not to.
   4316. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:14 AM (#4296124)
ray

typically though sometimes the winner tells folks he received a concession phone call
   4317. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:15 AM (#4296125)
CNN with a great graphic on Ohio.
   4318. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:15 AM (#4296126)

how did moderates do overall?

Indiana picked a blue dog Democrat over a far right R

Mass tossed out Scott Brown, but Warren at least is more aggressive against Wall St - a pretty bipartisan emotion - than almost anyone in DC

Maine elected an independent Senator who leans left, but has not yet committed to the D. Would it be so bad for moderates if he doesn't promise to give them their vote time after time?

McCaskill won, also more moderate than her R challenger

any Senate election that is now more left or right than before?

   4319. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:16 AM (#4296127)
howie

tammy baldwin looks to have defeated tommy thompson and she is leftier than sen kohl
   4320. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:16 AM (#4296128)
How quickly we forget that Tim Russert used to be a prominent figure on this night.
   4321. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:16 AM (#4296129)
The HEAT MAP!

GOP rules the empty spaces, so they are important! Dems rule cities which are compact and not as important.

Heh.
   4322. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:17 AM (#4296130)
didn't Gore call W back in '00 and say something like "Did I say was conceding 30 minutes ago?"
   4323. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:17 AM (#4296132)
First important test is the fiscal cliff. Does anyone think they won't just kick the can down the road and continue to run deficits?
Obama will be wise to sell a return to top rates under Clinton.

Forty years ago whoda thought America would be saved by brown people.?
   4324. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:17 AM (#4296133)
I had no idea Megyn Kelly was THAT woman. I just looked her up after hearing all you guys talk about her. I just do not think she is distinctively cute enough to make up for all the irritating passive/aggressive mannerisms and #### she says.

I dissent.
   4325. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:17 AM (#4296134)
4221. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4296029)
Nate's biggest "misses" from partial data:

Arizona predicted 53-46, currently 56-43
New Mexico predicted 53-47 currently 53-43 (4% independent?)
Nevada predicted 52-47 currently 54-44

These are all with ~63% reporting.
   4326. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:17 AM (#4296135)

Up just 45000 with Montgomery County 100% reported and the African-American and rich conservative suburbs still to come in. Not that matters. If history is any guide, it will be attempted again next year or imposed from above. The ability of the state to enforce new discrimination standards against its competing bodies and assume new responsibilities in custody cases is too tempting not to.


Is that up for or against? Because I'm going to go on record with saying that anywhere gay marriage wins a popular vote, it will never lose it afterwards. Simple demographics are simply against it.
   4327. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:18 AM (#4296136)
CNN has gone back to the Ohio map A LOT these past 30 minutes.

It's like they want to make sure everyone understands that their stats guys know what they are talking about.

NBC did the same thing.
   4328. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:18 AM (#4296137)
Britt Hume preaching it to the Rs. He might well be Andy.
   4329. PreservedFish Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:18 AM (#4296138)
"Romney not ready to concede" - CBS
   4330. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:19 AM (#4296139)
"I had no idea Megyn Kelly was THAT woman. I just looked her up after hearing all you guys talk about her. I just do not think she is distinctively cute enough to make up for all the irritating passive/aggressive mannerisms and #### she says.

I dissent."

nothing in the first 4,000 posts paints you as more hyper-partisan than this.
:)

easy solution: mute button

she's an attorney with 2 kids, and turns 42 (!) this month



   4331. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:19 AM (#4296140)
tammy baldwin looks to have defeated tommy thompson and she is leftier than sen kohl


by a mile. Thompson was a disaster of a pick. Awful primary result for the Rs in that race. Hovde, or Fitz would've done much better than ole' Tommy.
   4332. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:19 AM (#4296141)
CNN has gone back to the Ohio map A LOT these past 30 minutes.


With Fox hammering away at it and Romney not conceding, you can't blame them.
   4333. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:19 AM (#4296142)
great point on fox news, where its large populations of college educated people voted for obama, how funny
   4334. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:20 AM (#4296143)
Hmmmm, someone should get right on the "heat map" that graphs voting against population density ...
   4335. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:20 AM (#4296144)
How quickly we forget that Tim Russert used to be a prominent figure on this night.


Would he have played with the magic screens?

Or busted out the trusty white board?

Either way, Uncle Tim would have had everything under control.
   4336. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:21 AM (#4296145)
4325. Clearly silver blew it. Bad night for nate
   4337. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:21 AM (#4296146)
I still like the other blond more, because she is smarter and smart is sexy. So is sleep. I am heading off to bed. Goodnight everyone and thanks again for an entertaining night.
   4338. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:21 AM (#4296147)
Megyn Kelly was much cuter back when she was Megyn Kendall. Seriously.

Meanwhile, this Rachel Maddow is not easy on the eyes.
   4339. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:21 AM (#4296148)
I saw on Twitter that apparently Puerto Rico voted for statehood too? Huh? I didn't know they were even voting about it. Is it binding? Did we get a 51st state and nobody noticed?
   4340. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:21 AM (#4296149)
Is there ever a point at which early voting gets "too early?"


You mean I shouldn't mail in this ballot for Hilary Clinton 2016 tomorrow?
   4341. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:21 AM (#4296150)
Forty years ago whoda thought America would be saved by brown people.?

Sixty years ago America began to enter the modern world on the strength of what black people did. What happened tonight is just a continuation of that.
   4342. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:22 AM (#4296151)
mrams

for the record i voted for baldwin.

age bigotry on my part. that and tommy of today is not the tommy of yesteryear. lost his fastball
   4343. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:22 AM (#4296152)
What was Nate's final EC prediction before the election, does anyone remember?


Nate hasn't been wrong on any states yet. He called Virginia for Obama and called Florida as close as it's possible to be. The last Florida prediction I saw of Nate's this morning gave Obama a 50.3% chance of winning the state and called the projected vote a 49-49 tie.
   4344. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:23 AM (#4296153)
This was not Dick Morris:

Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico -- now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.


2 out of (1)3 ain't bad.
   4345. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:23 AM (#4296154)
I saw on Twitter that apparently Puerto Rico voted for statehood too? Huh? I didn't know they were even voting about it. Is it binding? Did we get a 51st state and nobody noticed?


I was just thinking that the next time the Democrats have a fillibusterproof majority they should IMMEDIATELY vote PR, Guam, and DC in as new states. Then invade Mexico and add Sonara and Chihuahua. THAT would screw whitey BUT GOOD.
   4346. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:24 AM (#4296155)
In DC a Democrat won every single position that had party affiliation involved. Like I said in my vote was totally pointless. All three props won by a landslide like I thought they would.
   4347. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:25 AM (#4296156)
Van Jones is a CNN contributor. I seem to recall there was a scandal with him, but I can't recall what.

A 911 Truther.
   4348. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:25 AM (#4296157)
Megyn Kelly was much cuter back when she was Megyn Kendall. Seriously.


agree with this. She was also extraordinarily good as a legal reporter, in terms of 'splaining very mundane legal concepts to the audience. Almost as good as Pete Williams on NBC, who's best moment was basically ripping the microphone from a bumbling David Gregory during '00 to explain to viewers what SCOTUS had said in B v G as everyone was running outside the Court to report the decision.
   4349. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:25 AM (#4296158)
Sixty years ago America began to enter the modern world on the strength of what black people did. What happened tonight is just a continuation of that.


America, 2250 - The Tyranny of the Tan! Let's go all Bullworth on their asses. YOU. WILL. BE. ASSIMILATED.
   4350. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:26 AM (#4296159)
Tonight turned out to be not so nearly as insane as I thought it would be, thankfully.
   4351. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:26 AM (#4296160)
Loving this graphic on CNN showing 335 votes separating Obama and Romney in the popular vote.
   4352. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:26 AM (#4296161)
I saw on Twitter that apparently Puerto Rico voted for statehood too? Huh? I didn't know they were even voting about it. Is it binding? Did we get a 51st state and nobody noticed?


No. There are two ballot questions gauging interest in statehood.
   4353. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:26 AM (#4296162)
my estimation is that the only person who is going to help the governor understand that the concession speech needs to happen is mrs. romney

   4354. puck Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:26 AM (#4296163)
Marijuana has been legalized in Washington State!

Colorado will pass it as well.
   4355. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:27 AM (#4296164)
Pat Caddell, a very good 'get off my lawn' type of pundit. Always good blunt insight. Pretty good dressing down of the Rs today and in the future.
   4356. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:27 AM (#4296165)
Nate didn't make a specific EC prediction, but the most likely outcomes was 303. And what looks like 293 (minus OH?) and 320sih (plus VA?) It's not a very clear graphic and I am not about to blow it up and re-mark the X-axis.
   4357. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:28 AM (#4296166)
4326. Up is for.

It would seem the demographics have no knowledge of family or sense to uphold it. Shifts are favoring those who either 1. grew up in broken families and don't know what they're called to defend and/or 2. practice their heterosexual relationships with the same lack of permanence or rejection of procreation that are inherent within homosexual relationships.
   4358. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:29 AM (#4296167)
Hovde, or Fitz would've done much better than ole' Tommy.


I'm not sure about that. Hovde always struck me as a DC carpetbagger, and I don't think his work running a hedge fund would be endearing. (I get the impression we prefer our business-types to be in manufacturing or farming). Fitz would have had to deal with all the baggage from his time in the Legislature, i.e. the same stuff that led to the recall.

The state GOP doesn't seem to do a good job recruiting people for these campaigns.
   4359. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:30 AM (#4296168)
binding? Did we get a 51st state and nobody noticed?



No. There are two ballot questions gauging interest in statehood.


Okay, figured as much. Might be interesting to see what goes on in the future, though, I guess. Have to think GOP as it is now would stab eyes out than let more Spanish-speakers in, though.
   4360. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:30 AM (#4296169)
4325. Clearly silver blew it. Bad night for nate


I am just reposting and I think that Silver was amazing correct (a witch?).

However, I think that it is interesting that it was AZ, NM and NV that were over-predicted as R. I was discussing with my wife why NM is easily D while AZ tends R (she is a non-mormon from UT). We don't know - what is the difference in demographics between those two state? As an outsider, they seem pretty similar (as could NV).
   4361. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:31 AM (#4296170)
Oddly it looks like rasmussen had the best final OH poll.
   4362. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:31 AM (#4296171)
"Democrats won by polarizing the heck out of this country"

Um, yeah.
   4363. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:31 AM (#4296172)
I love Shep Smith so much.
   4364. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:32 AM (#4296173)
Seriously, 99 million votes... and a margin of just 5,000. Wild.
   4365. NTNgod Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:32 AM (#4296174)
I saw on Twitter that apparently Puerto Rico voted for statehood too?

Bernie Williams is probably real, real happy.
   4366. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:32 AM (#4296175)
my estimation is that the only person who is going to help the governor understand that the concession speech needs to happen is mrs. romney
True, this

Good for the country, that the margins in oh, fl, co too great to recount
   4367. Steve Treder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:34 AM (#4296176)
Republicans, whatever else they might be, are unfailingly (unintentionally) funny.
   4368. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:34 AM (#4296177)
However, I think that it is interesting that it was AZ, NM and NV that were over-predicted as R. I was discussing with my wife why NM is easily D while AZ tends R (she is a non-mormon from UT). We don't know - what is the difference in demographics between those two state? As an outsider, they seem pretty similar (as could NV).
a lot of old white people retire to arizona.
   4369. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:34 AM (#4296178)
4360. The difference between AZ and NM? Federal workers.
   4370. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:34 AM (#4296179)
Seriously, 99 million votes... and a margin of just 5,000. Wild.


Would you support a national presidential vote?
   4371. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:34 AM (#4296180)
Obama now ahead in national vote.
   4372. shock Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:35 AM (#4296181)
Nate didn't make a specific EC prediction, but the most likely outcomes was 303. And what looks like 293 (minus OH?) and 320sih (plus VA?) It's not a very clear graphic and I am not about to blow it up and re-mark the X-axis.


I don't quite understand. I see 330 being the highest outcome, 20% probability.
   4373. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:35 AM (#4296182)
he state GOP doesn't seem to do a good job recruiting people for these campaigns.


but for Walker, I'd agree with this. However, Generic R was way ahead of Baldwin.

Thompson's appearances were dreadful. It's like he was as hammered as he was at Lambeau after GB won the super bowl over NE.
Thompson hammered
   4374. Poulanc Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:35 AM (#4296183)
NBC's Brian Williams talking about the Tweets by Donald Trump ...

"Donald Trump, who has driven well past the last exit to relevance..."
   4375. puck Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:35 AM (#4296185)
Seriously, 99 million votes... and a margin of just 5,000. Wild.

Would you support a national presidential vote?

Would that mean recounting in every precinct nationally?
   4376. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:35 AM (#4296186)
but a single vote doesn't matter.

//someone had to write it
   4377. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:36 AM (#4296187)
The difference between AZ and NM? Federal workers.


Besides Los Alamos, what else is there? (Honest question.)
   4378. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:36 AM (#4296188)
Obama now ahead in national vote.


So now he has a mandate!
   4379. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:36 AM (#4296189)
Right or wrong, the EC saves us a real pain in the ass this year.

The popular vote will be very close and we'd be recounting all over the place for weeks.
   4380. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:36 AM (#4296190)
Ohio is currently barely outside the trigger for an auto recount.
   4381. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:36 AM (#4296191)

Would you support a national presidential vote?


Not sure. Haven't thought about it much.

It's kind of annoying that the vast majority of states are never in play.
   4382. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:37 AM (#4296192)
Why the need for Romney to concede quickly.

If I were Romney, I wouldn't concede until morning, at the earliest.

So, a 50-49 win isn't a mandate, but 53-47 is? People are stupid.
   4383. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:38 AM (#4296193)
Wait - Colorado just legalized marijuana? How did I miss this.
   4384. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:38 AM (#4296194)

Besides Los Alamos, what else is there? (Honest question.)


A whole #### ton of federal lands, some bases, various other national labs. On top of all that, the population is lower, so the feds are higher relative amount. Of the non-fed citizens, NM is much poorer (and, hence, more D than R) than in AZ.
   4385. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:38 AM (#4296195)
I'm looking forward to Romney's concession speech. One last opportunity to reverse his position on something from a week ago.
   4386. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:38 AM (#4296196)
congresswoman bachmann in a dead heat

i confess to not feeling too bad about that
   4387. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:39 AM (#4296197)
lots of entanglement with fed law. not that clear yet.
   4388. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:39 AM (#4296198)
It would seem the demographics have no knowledge of family or sense to uphold it. Shifts are favoring those who either 1. grew up in broken families and don't know what they're called to defend and/or 2. practice their heterosexual relationships with the same lack of permanence or rejection of procreation that are inherent within homosexual relationships.


I reject that, at least in a singular, nationwide sense. Look at the movement in CA on the issue on Gay Marriage between 2000 and 2008. The next time Gay Marriage comes up for popular state-wide vote (if it ever does, depending on what happens in the courts) it'll win by at least the margin as the difference between the last two. It'll be a BEAT DOWN.

And, nationwide, it's not about the direction things WILL shift, just about how far down they're coming from ...

In a lot of ways, it parallels what would have happened on inter-racial marriage, if that hadn't been decided by Loving v Virginia and had been left to the progressive movement of society: Northern and far-Western states as earlier adopters, the central, mid and south in varying stages afterwards.

But, inexorable, eventually ...
   4389. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:39 AM (#4296199)
So, a 50-49 win isn't a mandate, but 53-47 is? People are stupid.

It won't be 50-49. It'll be 49-49. And 53-47 isn't a mandate but a clear win. Which means something.
   4390. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:39 AM (#4296200)
"Pat Caddell, a very good 'get off my lawn' type of pundit. Always good blunt insight. Pretty good dressing down of the Rs today and in the future."

yes, 1970s Carter guy who Democrats hate because he goes on Fox and rips a lot of left ideas.
would not surprise me if, as you say, he ripped the right tonight.

too unpredictable in this echo chamber era, it seems.
God forbid original thought, it almost feels like....

and yes, gay marriage will continue to win now, whether one likes it or not. I respect the word "inexorable" there.

if that's confusing, then you don't know many 18 to 30 year olds. It's not even a controversial issue.

also true of increasing online gambling options, btw, which is unrelated.

   4391. thok Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:39 AM (#4296201)
We don't know - what is the difference in demographics between those two state? As an outsider, they seem pretty similar (as could NV).


New Mexico is about 40% Hispanic, Arizona is about 25% Hispanic. Arizona is slightly older as well, but the Latino vote is the real difference.
   4392. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:40 AM (#4296202)
rove is saying it was too smal a margin, does he realize that obama will win the popular vote by several million
   4393. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:41 AM (#4296203)
CNN saying VA now too.
   4394. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:41 AM (#4296204)
Virginia now called.
   4395. Chokeland Bill Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:42 AM (#4296205)
538's most common outcome was 332 and it looks like that is exactly what we will get.
   4396. a fatty cow that need two seats (cough, cough) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:42 AM (#4296206)
karl is completely off the ####### rails now
   4397. spike Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:43 AM (#4296207)
Karl Rove - words fail.
   4398. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:43 AM (#4296208)
congresswoman bachmann in a dead heat

i confess to not feeling too bad about that


Behold, the last living Rockefeller Republican!
   4399. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:43 AM (#4296209)
Rove: The President's won the battle, but may have lost the war ...

Hey Karl, eat a bag of dicks.

It's turkey time, gobble, gobble.

   4400. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:43 AM (#4296210)
A whole #### ton of federal lands, some bases, various other national labs. On top of all that, the population is lower, so the feds are higher relative amount. Of the non-fed citizens, NM is much poorer (and, hence, more D than R) than in AZ.


Thanks bunyon... I did not know that AZ had 6.5m people and NM 2.1m.

Maybe to bring this thread back around... maybe more libertarians in NM than AZ (%) too? Which probably detracts more from R than D.
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