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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
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Again, he's going to lose. Has, in fact, lost. But real life need not move at Twitter speeds.
Yeah, my folks live in Wyoming, and even I can tell you with near certainty where the 127 Ds live (some in Jackson, Teton county the lone co. that goes blue, and a handful in Laramie where U of Wyoming is located).
That's another sweet thought to carry into slumberland. Of course all that money poured into the Romney campaign is probably about 1% of what those dudes made in the stock market over the past four years.
His original point was that voting totals were down compared to 2008 and directly implied that vote totals were being held back to make it look like Obama won. It never crossed his mind that maybe fewer people voted and that maybe it was because they were tired of people like him making Ohio a cesspool battle ground.
Well, I'm glad my parents are in Reno tonight, but they're going to be here this this weekend, and I know I'm going to get the Glenn Beck Special.
Sigh.
edit - Ray, 4304
when you say that you think they have to govern, what you miss, is that their entire party is centered around the belief that government is evil. they don't believe in smaller, or more efficient government, they believe in bathtub government, as in, they want to shrink the federal government to the point where they can drown it in a bathtub.
Up just 45000 with Montgomery County 100% reported and the African-American and rich conservative suburbs still to come in. Not that matters. If history is any guide, it will be attempted again next year or imposed from above. The ability of the state to enforce new discrimination standards against its competing bodies and assume new responsibilities in custody cases is too tempting not to.
typically though sometimes the winner tells folks he received a concession phone call
how did moderates do overall?
Indiana picked a blue dog Democrat over a far right R
Mass tossed out Scott Brown, but Warren at least is more aggressive against Wall St - a pretty bipartisan emotion - than almost anyone in DC
Maine elected an independent Senator who leans left, but has not yet committed to the D. Would it be so bad for moderates if he doesn't promise to give them their vote time after time?
McCaskill won, also more moderate than her R challenger
any Senate election that is now more left or right than before?
tammy baldwin looks to have defeated tommy thompson and she is leftier than sen kohl
GOP rules the empty spaces, so they are important! Dems rule cities which are compact and not as important.
Heh.
Forty years ago whoda thought America would be saved by brown people.?
I dissent.
Is that up for or against? Because I'm going to go on record with saying that anywhere gay marriage wins a popular vote, it will never lose it afterwards. Simple demographics are simply against it.
It's like they want to make sure everyone understands that their stats guys know what they are talking about.
NBC did the same thing.
I dissent."
nothing in the first 4,000 posts paints you as more hyper-partisan than this.
:)
easy solution: mute button
she's an attorney with 2 kids, and turns 42 (!) this month
by a mile. Thompson was a disaster of a pick. Awful primary result for the Rs in that race. Hovde, or Fitz would've done much better than ole' Tommy.
With Fox hammering away at it and Romney not conceding, you can't blame them.
Would he have played with the magic screens?
Or busted out the trusty white board?
Either way, Uncle Tim would have had everything under control.
Meanwhile, this Rachel Maddow is not easy on the eyes.
You mean I shouldn't mail in this ballot for Hilary Clinton 2016 tomorrow?
Sixty years ago America began to enter the modern world on the strength of what black people did. What happened tonight is just a continuation of that.
for the record i voted for baldwin.
age bigotry on my part. that and tommy of today is not the tommy of yesteryear. lost his fastball
Nate hasn't been wrong on any states yet. He called Virginia for Obama and called Florida as close as it's possible to be. The last Florida prediction I saw of Nate's this morning gave Obama a 50.3% chance of winning the state and called the projected vote a 49-49 tie.
2 out of (1)3 ain't bad.
I was just thinking that the next time the Democrats have a fillibusterproof majority they should IMMEDIATELY vote PR, Guam, and DC in as new states. Then invade Mexico and add Sonara and Chihuahua. THAT would screw whitey BUT GOOD.
A 911 Truther.
agree with this. She was also extraordinarily good as a legal reporter, in terms of 'splaining very mundane legal concepts to the audience. Almost as good as Pete Williams on NBC, who's best moment was basically ripping the microphone from a bumbling David Gregory during '00 to explain to viewers what SCOTUS had said in B v G as everyone was running outside the Court to report the decision.
America, 2250 - The Tyranny of the Tan! Let's go all Bullworth on their asses. YOU. WILL. BE. ASSIMILATED.
No. There are two ballot questions gauging interest in statehood.
Colorado will pass it as well.
It would seem the demographics have no knowledge of family or sense to uphold it. Shifts are favoring those who either 1. grew up in broken families and don't know what they're called to defend and/or 2. practice their heterosexual relationships with the same lack of permanence or rejection of procreation that are inherent within homosexual relationships.
I'm not sure about that. Hovde always struck me as a DC carpetbagger, and I don't think his work running a hedge fund would be endearing. (I get the impression we prefer our business-types to be in manufacturing or farming). Fitz would have had to deal with all the baggage from his time in the Legislature, i.e. the same stuff that led to the recall.
The state GOP doesn't seem to do a good job recruiting people for these campaigns.
Okay, figured as much. Might be interesting to see what goes on in the future, though, I guess. Have to think GOP as it is now would stab eyes out than let more Spanish-speakers in, though.
I am just reposting and I think that Silver was amazing correct (a witch?).
However, I think that it is interesting that it was AZ, NM and NV that were over-predicted as R. I was discussing with my wife why NM is easily D while AZ tends R (she is a non-mormon from UT). We don't know - what is the difference in demographics between those two state? As an outsider, they seem pretty similar (as could NV).
Um, yeah.
Bernie Williams is probably real, real happy.
Good for the country, that the margins in oh, fl, co too great to recount
Would you support a national presidential vote?
I don't quite understand. I see 330 being the highest outcome, 20% probability.
but for Walker, I'd agree with this. However, Generic R was way ahead of Baldwin.
Thompson's appearances were dreadful. It's like he was as hammered as he was at Lambeau after GB won the super bowl over NE.
Thompson hammered
Would that mean recounting in every precinct nationally?
//someone had to write it
Besides Los Alamos, what else is there? (Honest question.)
So now he has a mandate!
The popular vote will be very close and we'd be recounting all over the place for weeks.
Not sure. Haven't thought about it much.
It's kind of annoying that the vast majority of states are never in play.
If I were Romney, I wouldn't concede until morning, at the earliest.
So, a 50-49 win isn't a mandate, but 53-47 is? People are stupid.
Besides Los Alamos, what else is there? (Honest question.)
A whole #### ton of federal lands, some bases, various other national labs. On top of all that, the population is lower, so the feds are higher relative amount. Of the non-fed citizens, NM is much poorer (and, hence, more D than R) than in AZ.
i confess to not feeling too bad about that
I reject that, at least in a singular, nationwide sense. Look at the movement in CA on the issue on Gay Marriage between 2000 and 2008. The next time Gay Marriage comes up for popular state-wide vote (if it ever does, depending on what happens in the courts) it'll win by at least the margin as the difference between the last two. It'll be a BEAT DOWN.
And, nationwide, it's not about the direction things WILL shift, just about how far down they're coming from ...
In a lot of ways, it parallels what would have happened on inter-racial marriage, if that hadn't been decided by Loving v Virginia and had been left to the progressive movement of society: Northern and far-Western states as earlier adopters, the central, mid and south in varying stages afterwards.
But, inexorable, eventually ...
It won't be 50-49. It'll be 49-49. And 53-47 isn't a mandate but a clear win. Which means something.
yes, 1970s Carter guy who Democrats hate because he goes on Fox and rips a lot of left ideas.
would not surprise me if, as you say, he ripped the right tonight.
too unpredictable in this echo chamber era, it seems.
God forbid original thought, it almost feels like....
and yes, gay marriage will continue to win now, whether one likes it or not. I respect the word "inexorable" there.
if that's confusing, then you don't know many 18 to 30 year olds. It's not even a controversial issue.
also true of increasing online gambling options, btw, which is unrelated.
New Mexico is about 40% Hispanic, Arizona is about 25% Hispanic. Arizona is slightly older as well, but the Latino vote is the real difference.
Behold, the last living Rockefeller Republican!
Hey Karl, eat a bag of dicks.
It's turkey time, gobble, gobble.
Thanks bunyon... I did not know that AZ had 6.5m people and NM 2.1m.
Maybe to bring this thread back around... maybe more libertarians in NM than AZ (%) too? Which probably detracts more from R than D.
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