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And my prediction!
No, Obama will win the popular vote by at least 1.5 points, maybe 2. Democrats will pick up seats in both the House and the Senate.
Romney in either 10 mins, or 70, depending on a gasping Carl Cameron's commentary just now
Nate Silver has not only gotten every state right, but he even correctly identified which state would be the last tossup, with Florida. The man is clearly a warlock of some sort.
California is only reporting 29% of their vote so far. Obama will probably add another 1-1.5 million to his lead over Romney just from California. I could see him winning the popular vote by as much as 2% when it's all said and done.
Hard saying. Johnson was an R before he was a Libertarian, though he clearly leaned Libertarian while governor. I'd say his "good" showing in NM was mostly due to personal connection.
i think i can be intentionally funny and have done so every so often.
AZ is backwards. Nate UNDERPREDICTED R totals in AZ by ... oh, now it's 2%. [ 53-47 R(predicted) vs. 55-43 R/62% ]
This should be amusing.
Second terms are harder because it's harder to keep your own party in line.
As a Wisconsinite, this is now my most emotionally invested race. (PS, from LaX with most family in MSP, so yeah, I call you MINE.)
yes, i know it's irritating. but the governor has the next 10-15 years of wanting to be relevant to consider.
Bush won 50.7% to 48.3% in 2004 and declared it a mandate.
What matters is who is the president and who is in the legislature. Mandate or not.
Obama is up 150,000 with CAlifornia only 29% in. I think the closeness is being overstated a bit,
Also because the "Gotta get re-elected before he can do what he REALLY wants to do!" excuse gets vaporized.
Just don't expect to get anything done. Like I say, you may well not anyway. But Obama and the Ds score no points from me if they don't actually make an effort.
Just 'cuz you give money and grouse at party meetings doesn't make you a Republican.
Holy crap, that's the alien from Men in Black.
He can want all he wants, but he's not going to be relevant anymore. He doesn't have an office to fall back on like McCain and Kerry or an issue to promote like Gore.
ok, 5 mins til Romney concession
and Nate vs Real Clear Politics is the only race left.
If Nate doesn't beat them, he won the war but didn't battle.....
What a night. Anyone really expect things to go so quickly?
So the worst post-Civil War president is now the model?
But no sirree, the country is not moving left!
Yup.
VERY amusing.
Yes? I suspect anyone without a great deal of emotional investment expected the EC to decide things quickly.
Fox says Romney called Obama just now to concede
The Rs sure lapped it up.
He can always take a swim in his pool full of doubloons, Scrooge McDuck style!
The Rs sure lapped it up.
And the country moved away from it. I assume the Ds would like to win in 2016?
thank you everyone else for voting!
Clinton or Cuomo, I figure, for the Dems. GOP will depend heavily on what direction the party goes- could be a guy like Rubio or Christie, but could just as easily be Ryan.
there was a bunch of states where in a pre-2000 would have gotten called much much quicker. Don't know if the 270 target would have gotten hit quicker though.
The ####?
Rubio or Bush would STILL have to get out of the primaries in 2016 while dealing with the hyper-anti immigrant base, just like Romney did THIS YEAR.
Look where that left him this year.
Idiot.
If I could compress this into a handle, I would.
24% of workers in NM are public sector workers link
Remember, being president would have been a pay cut.
Must have made a pit stop in Colorado before his concession speech, no wonder it took him so long.
It would have been extra income.
Just go back to the ####### Cayman Islands and leave the rest of us alone.
The man is an unadulterated sack of crap, but he's going out in respectable style.
Well, what with him not being a citizen, what do you expect?
since when is sincere and succinct a bad thing
the art of public speaking is brevity
I'm actually interested to see, a couple weeks from now when everything is digested, if there was any anti-Mormon backlash among evangelicals. It's purely anecdotal, but I know a handful of evangelicals who are hardcore Conservatives that didn't vote for Romney (or at least claimed they weren't voting for him).
Again, the difference for one or the other will be Florida. Silver had O by the slimmest of margins, RCP had had it for R in its no-tossup map.
What more did you want?
What more did you want?
A little softshoe would have been nice.
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