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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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Page 45 of 114 pages ‹ First  < 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 >  Last ›
   4401. spike Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:43 AM (#4296211)
538's most common outcome was 332 and it looks like that is exactly what we will get.

And my prediction!
   4402. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:44 AM (#4296212)
concession speech at 12:55 EST. just long enough for me to stay up for that :(
   4403. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:44 AM (#4296213)
Corey booker!
   4404. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:44 AM (#4296214)
Karl Rove on Fox, working his way through the Kubler-Ross chart: "This president has said, 'No compromises, and my opponents are unAmerican.'"
   4405. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:44 AM (#4296215)

It won't be 50-49. It'll be 49-49.


No, Obama will win the popular vote by at least 1.5 points, maybe 2. Democrats will pick up seats in both the House and the Senate.
   4406. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:45 AM (#4296216)
Republicans, whatever else they might be, are unfailingly (unintentionally) funny.
Good thing they've got that going for them, because they are NEVER funny when they actually try to be funny.
   4407. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:45 AM (#4296217)
Jon Stewart is going to have to do a full hour Daily Show on Rove's performance tonight.
   4408. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:45 AM (#4296218)
they keep talking about how a second term president has a harder time, I would think its reverse. the pres can go for what he wants instead of what gets him votes
   4409. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:45 AM (#4296219)
Ruth Graham ?@publicroad
Friends' consensus: Romney's speech is delayed because he's saddling up Rafalca backstage. Most majestic concession speech EVER!
   4410. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:45 AM (#4296220)

Romney in either 10 mins, or 70, depending on a gasping Carl Cameron's commentary just now

   4411. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:45 AM (#4296221)
CNN saying VA now too.


Nate Silver has not only gotten every state right, but he even correctly identified which state would be the last tossup, with Florida. The man is clearly a warlock of some sort.

It won't be 50-49. It'll be 49-49.


California is only reporting 29% of their vote so far. Obama will probably add another 1-1.5 million to his lead over Romney just from California. I could see him winning the popular vote by as much as 2% when it's all said and done.
   4412. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:45 AM (#4296222)
Maybe to bring this thread back around... maybe more libertarians in NM than AZ (%) too? Which probably detracts more from R than D.

Hard saying. Johnson was an R before he was a Libertarian, though he clearly leaned Libertarian while governor. I'd say his "good" showing in NM was mostly due to personal connection.
   4413. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:46 AM (#4296223)
shredder

i think i can be intentionally funny and have done so every so often.
   4414. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:46 AM (#4296224)
H
owever, I think that it is interesting that it was AZ, NM and NV that were over-predicted as R. I was discussing with my wife why NM is easily D while AZ tends R (she is a non-mormon from UT). We don't know - what is the difference in demographics between those two state? As an outsider, they seem pretty similar (as could NV).


AZ is backwards. Nate UNDERPREDICTED R totals in AZ by ... oh, now it's 2%. [ 53-47 R(predicted) vs. 55-43 R/62% ]
   4415. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:46 AM (#4296225)
Go easy on Karl Rove. The big guy just spent $300 million to beat Bob Kerrey.
   4416. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:47 AM (#4296226)
CBS News ?@CBSNews

BREAKING: @JanCBS reports Gov. Romney has called President Obama to concede http://cbsn.ws/election
   4417. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:47 AM (#4296227)
Oooooh, THE KRAUTHAMMER SPEAKS NEXT!

This should be amusing.
   4418. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:47 AM (#4296228)
I feel comforted that the loons on the left and right on my Facebook have both been hilariously paranoid today.
   4419. SteveF Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:47 AM (#4296229)
they keep talking about how a second term president has a harder time


Second terms are harder because it's harder to keep your own party in line.
   4420. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:48 AM (#4296230)
Thanks thok and buynon, my response got flipped at 4400.

congresswoman bachmann in a dead heat

i confess to not feeling too bad about that


As a Wisconsinite, this is now my most emotionally invested race. (PS, from LaX with most family in MSP, so yeah, I call you MINE.)
   4421. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:48 AM (#4296231)
congresswoman bachmann in a dead heat
Allen West now losing as well! And Joe "foot in mouth" Wilson is history.
   4422. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:49 AM (#4296232)
FOX IS COMMENTING ON MARIJUANA, LEARN THEIR STANCE NOW.
   4423. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:49 AM (#4296233)
folks have to remember that the governor is very brand aware and if he wants to maintain any type of position of status within the party he needs to go down swinging. which he did.

yes, i know it's irritating. but the governor has the next 10-15 years of wanting to be relevant to consider.
   4424. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:49 AM (#4296234)
It won't be 50-49. It'll be 49-49. And 53-47 isn't a mandate but a clear win. Which means something.

Bush won 50.7% to 48.3% in 2004 and declared it a mandate.

What matters is who is the president and who is in the legislature. Mandate or not.
   4425. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:49 AM (#4296235)
Citizens: In keeping with the terms of Obama's second victory, please place all of your guns at the curb outside your place of residence for collection.
   4426.   Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:49 AM (#4296236)
The popular vote will be very close and we'd be recounting all over the place for weeks.


Obama is up 150,000 with CAlifornia only 29% in. I think the closeness is being overstated a bit,
   4427. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:49 AM (#4296237)
Second terms are harder because it's harder to keep your own party in line.

Also because the "Gotta get re-elected before he can do what he REALLY wants to do!" excuse gets vaporized.
   4428. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:49 AM (#4296238)
@4372 I probably just misread the graph. After everything else predicted to the 10th of a percent, you can't even read the EC vote predictions.
   4429. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:50 AM (#4296239)
Nate Silver wins, and all the rest of you Murray-Chass-looking b1tches can sit the #### down.
   4430. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:50 AM (#4296240)
Okay, so 50-48. If you (and more importantly, the President) want to go lording that over folks that also got elected, be my guest. It'll be great fun.

Just don't expect to get anything done. Like I say, you may well not anyway. But Obama and the Ds score no points from me if they don't actually make an effort.
   4431. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:50 AM (#4296241)
shredder

i think i can be intentionally funny and have done so every so often.


Just 'cuz you give money and grouse at party meetings doesn't make you a Republican.
   4432. Langer Monk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:50 AM (#4296242)
Oooooh, THE KRAUTHAMMER SPEAKS NEXT!


Holy crap, that's the alien from Men in Black.
   4433. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:50 AM (#4296243)
i think i can be intentionally funny and have done so every so often.
Present company (well, some of them) excluded.
   4434. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:51 AM (#4296244)
yes, i know it's irritating. but the governor has the next 10-15 years of wanting to be relevant to consider.


He can want all he wants, but he's not going to be relevant anymore. He doesn't have an office to fall back on like McCain and Kerry or an issue to promote like Gore.
   4435. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:51 AM (#4296245)
he is saying that the repubs need a better campaign, apparently the issues dont matter
   4436. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:51 AM (#4296246)

ok, 5 mins til Romney concession

and Nate vs Real Clear Politics is the only race left.
If Nate doesn't beat them, he won the war but didn't battle.....

   4437. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:51 AM (#4296247)
Conceded!

What a night. Anyone really expect things to go so quickly?
   4438. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4296248)
Bush won 50.7% to 48.3% in 2004 and declared it a mandate.

So the worst post-Civil War president is now the model?
   4439. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4296249)
Krauthammer: "Romney is a northeast liberal."
   4440. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4296250)
So weed now legal in Colorado according to state law, per the voters.

But no sirree, the country is not moving left!
   4441. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4296251)
   4442. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4296252)
This should be amusing.


Yup.

VERY amusing.
   4443. SteveF Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4296253)
What a night. Anyone really expect things to go so quickly?


Yes? I suspect anyone without a great deal of emotional investment expected the EC to decide things quickly.
   4444. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4296254)

Fox says Romney called Obama just now to concede

   4445. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4296255)
So the worst post-Civil War president is now the model?

The Rs sure lapped it up.
   4446. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:53 AM (#4296256)
Gold Star: no, not at all. Very nice.
   4447. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:53 AM (#4296257)
BTW, Should have called Florida 3 hours ago....that's over.
   4448. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:53 AM (#4296258)
So let's start talking about 2016.
   4449. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:54 AM (#4296259)
Krauthammer: romney up five points eight days ago
   4450. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:54 AM (#4296260)
Krauthammer: 10-point swing in last week because Obama got to play commander in chief with the hurricane.
   4451. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:54 AM (#4296261)
He doesn't have an office to fall back on like McCain and Kerry or an issue to promote like Gore.


He can always take a swim in his pool full of doubloons, Scrooge McDuck style!
   4452. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:54 AM (#4296262)
So the worst post-Civil War president is now the model?

The Rs sure lapped it up.


And the country moved away from it. I assume the Ds would like to win in 2016?
   4453. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:54 AM (#4296263)
I would cut Rove a little slack, given that he was on the front lines in 2000.
   4454. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:55 AM (#4296264)
I hope the Queens park rangers didnt play today. The R's are going down not up
   4455. Moe Greene Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:55 AM (#4296265)
What is Shep talking about? He lost me on the 25-54 advertising stuff.
   4456. DKDC Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:55 AM (#4296266)
I'm so glad I slept in this morning and didnt vote. I love the concession and victory speeches and I'd be a zombie without that extra half hour of shuteye.

thank you everyone else for voting!
   4457. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:55 AM (#4296267)
underrated: just how big the ####### text is on fox news. seniors with poor eye sight!
   4458. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:55 AM (#4296268)
So let's start talking about 2016.


Clinton or Cuomo, I figure, for the Dems. GOP will depend heavily on what direction the party goes- could be a guy like Rubio or Christie, but could just as easily be Ryan.
   4459. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:55 AM (#4296269)
What a night. Anyone really expect things to go so quickly?

there was a bunch of states where in a pre-2000 would have gotten called much much quicker. Don't know if the 270 target would have gotten hit quicker though.
   4460. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:55 AM (#4296270)
Yeah, worrying about what Romney will do next is sort of weird. Whatever he wants, obviously.
   4461. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:55 AM (#4296271)
NOT structural???

The ####?

Rubio or Bush would STILL have to get out of the primaries in 2016 while dealing with the hyper-anti immigrant base, just like Romney did THIS YEAR.

Look where that left him this year.

Idiot.
   4462. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:56 AM (#4296272)
Romney looks stoned.
   4463. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:56 AM (#4296273)
Nate Silver wins, and all the rest of you Murray-Chass-looking b1tches can sit the #### down.


If I could compress this into a handle, I would.
   4464. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:56 AM (#4296274)
Romney enters; we haven't heard an ovation that enthusiastic since the Yankee Stadium fans last month.
   4465. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:56 AM (#4296275)
Romney looks.... happy?
   4466. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:56 AM (#4296276)
The applause at this speech defines "smattering."
   4467. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:56 AM (#4296277)
Well, that's applause for the President from at least ... several people in the crowd ...
   4468. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:57 AM (#4296278)
4337.

24% of workers in NM are public sector workers link
   4469. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:57 AM (#4296279)
looks like this has been one long ####### day
   4470. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:58 AM (#4296280)
Oh, and to be fair, I don't see a dime's worth of difference between RCP and Nate.
   4471. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:58 AM (#4296281)
Romney looks.... happy?


Remember, being president would have been a pay cut.
   4472. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:58 AM (#4296282)
Romney looks stoned.


Must have made a pit stop in Colorado before his concession speech, no wonder it took him so long.
   4473. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:59 AM (#4296283)
Will anybody remember Romney in 4 years or is he the new Dukakis?
   4474. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:59 AM (#4296284)
Remember, being president would have been a pay cut.


It would have been extra income.
   4475. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:00 AM (#4296285)
drudge shows obama with a lead in the popular vote, but still has the asterisk
   4476. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:00 AM (#4296286)
Romney's concession speech sounds like a continuation of his campaign. Nixon made a far better one in 1960.

Just go back to the ####### Cayman Islands and leave the rest of us alone.
   4477. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:00 AM (#4296287)
Good for Romney.

The man is an unadulterated sack of crap, but he's going out in respectable style.

drudge shows obama with a lead in the popular vote, but still has the asterisk
Well, what with him not being a citizen, what do you expect?
   4478. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:00 AM (#4296288)
And what are those principles this week, Mr Romney?
   4479. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:00 AM (#4296289)
Patton Oswalt: Mitt's giving his "tears in the rain" speech. A soaking wet Harrison Ford watches, bloodied and dumbfounded.
   4480. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:00 AM (#4296290)
Well, everything but an honest truth ...
   4481. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:00 AM (#4296291)
unless there's a picture of Romney with a helmet in a tank, I doubt it.
   4482. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:01 AM (#4296292)
Kinda looks like Paul's wife is crying.
   4483. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:01 AM (#4296293)
That was it?
   4484. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:01 AM (#4296294)
Ease up, Andy. It was a fine concession.
   4485. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:01 AM (#4296295)
Now that the smear merchants can no longer cynically exploit his tax returns for partisan purposes, Romney will release them tomorrow.
   4486. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:02 AM (#4296296)
I think the asterisk is meant to tell the reader he won? That's how 1/2 the local networks are marking victories in their respective races, unless they are using the check mark.
   4487. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:02 AM (#4296297)
WOOOHOOO!!!!! I beewn drinin!
   4488. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:02 AM (#4296298)
Very short and seemingly earnest... Romney could have been a great president in 1960. Certainly does not seem like a bad guy.
   4489. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:02 AM (#4296299)
Obama's turn coming up...
   4490. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:02 AM (#4296300)
It's late, clear the stage. It's all he needed to do. You guys are a rough crowd.
   4491. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:02 AM (#4296301)
tough crowd.

since when is sincere and succinct a bad thing

the art of public speaking is brevity
   4492. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:03 AM (#4296302)
Will anybody remember Romney in 4 years or is he the new Dukakis?
That's the problem with having no principles. It doesn't generate any real, fervent support. He's the nominal standard bearer, and will disappear like smoke in the wind.
   4493. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:03 AM (#4296303)
[4479] Well, a speech that goes something like, "I've seen things *you people* wouldn't believe" would certainly seem in character, no?
   4494. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:03 AM (#4296304)
Krauthammer: "Romney is a northeast liberal."
Like I said, the excuse will be that Romney wasn't a real conservative.

I'm actually interested to see, a couple weeks from now when everything is digested, if there was any anti-Mormon backlash among evangelicals. It's purely anecdotal, but I know a handful of evangelicals who are hardcore Conservatives that didn't vote for Romney (or at least claimed they weren't voting for him).
   4495. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:03 AM (#4296305)
Oh, and to be fair, I don't see a dime's worth of difference between RCP and Nate.


Again, the difference for one or the other will be Florida. Silver had O by the slimmest of margins, RCP had had it for R in its no-tossup map.
   4496. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:03 AM (#4296306)
4388. You rejected it with a series of non-sequitors. Populist movements that exploit 1. the ignorant and 2. the selfish rarely sustain their gains over time.
   4497. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:03 AM (#4296307)
That was it?


What more did you want?
   4498. RollingWave Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:04 AM (#4296308)
If the GOP are willing to throw out something like Jindal + Rubio , that would change the game big time, but who knows at this point, the truth is the GOP can easily make enough of an adjustment and win in 2016, but the current trend is definately going the wrong way, which is of course however, not truely predictive of the future.
   4499. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:04 AM (#4296309)
I realize the gauntlet that is the Republican primaries, but Ryan is going to be in position to be a House leader meeting the President. If he can dance that step well, he'll gain a lot of points with the general public.

   4500. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:04 AM (#4296310)
That was it?

What more did you want?


A little softshoe would have been nice.
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