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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   4501. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:04 AM (#4296311)
Certainly does not seem like a bad guy.


I agree on that point. I'm sure he is a good person, I just disagree with almost all of his policies.
   4502. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:04 AM (#4296312)
Wife thinks Deval Patrick.
   4503. Jay Z Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:04 AM (#4296313)
Second terms are harder because it's harder to keep your own party in line.


Second terms since 1864, not counting the veeps who won their own term:

Lincoln - shot and killed
Grant - Panic of 1873
Cleveland - The first Great Depression
McKinley - shot and killed
Wilson - didn't keep us out of war, had a stroke
FDR - caused a recession by trying to balance the budget, otherwise the country probably was a little better off as it gradually recovered, even though war was coming
Ike - probably more enjoyable since McCarthy was sidelined, not that Ike had anything to do with that. Okay I guess
Nixon - Watergate, energy crisis
Reagan - Iran Contra and stock market crash. Though on balance the economy still might have been better in Term 2 than Term 1.
Clinton - Impeached. Continued to deregulate, which didn't help us down the road but probably was going to happen no matter who was prez.
Bush - everyone remembers.

I'd settle for competence, incrementalism, and some bipartisam budget agreement that doesn't cause a recession.
   4504. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:04 AM (#4296314)
That's the problem with having no principles. It doesn't generate any real, fervent support. He's the nominal standard bearer, and will disappear like smoke in the wind.

Seems to work for Sarah Palin.
   4505. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:05 AM (#4296315)
Romney's concession speech sounds like a continuation of his campaign. Nixon made a far better one in 1960.


Nixon's was a non-concession concession: "If these numbers hold up . . .
   4506. Doris from Rego Park Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:05 AM (#4296316)
joe...
   4507. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:05 AM (#4296317)
FOX calls Virginia.
   4508. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:05 AM (#4296318)
Fox News: "Barack Obama is going to have to be humble."
   4509. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:05 AM (#4296319)
BTW, I'd like to give it up for Yankee Clapper, who was wrong, but was great to read to and actually normal.
   4510. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:06 AM (#4296320)
I realize the gauntlet that is the Republican primaries, but Ryan is going to be in position to be a House leader meeting the President. If he can dance that step well, he'll gain a lot of points with the general public.


It's a fine line to walk though, because he's a huge target for Democrats now.
   4511. Gonfalon B. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:06 AM (#4296321)
4503: Eisenhower also had a second term stroke.
   4512. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:06 AM (#4296322)
Whining about the concession speech is basically the definition of sore winning.
   4513. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:06 AM (#4296323)
Allen West lost, per NBC.
   4514. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:06 AM (#4296324)
What more did you want?

I guess I just expected the speech to be a little longer, that's all. Nothing more, really.
   4515. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:07 AM (#4296325)
It really was classic watching the FOX News "analysts" tilt against the decisions being made by the decision team - a team which seems far more objective and capable.

"We. Are. Not. Losing! No way. NO way!"
   4516. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:08 AM (#4296326)
I feel like I can finally sleep well, but I have to get up in 3 and a half hours for work so I may as well just stay up.

Bachman is in a dogfight. That would be a capper for the night.
   4517. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:08 AM (#4296327)
It's a fine line to walk though, because he's a huge target for Democrats now.

True. But becoming President should be hard.
   4518. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:08 AM (#4296328)
What more did you want?


To be at least as good as McCain's.
   4519. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:08 AM (#4296329)
I agree on that point. I'm sure he is a good person

Eh. I'm not really as sure. But I barely care at this point.
   4520. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:08 AM (#4296330)
Eisenhower also had a second term stroke.


Clinton also had a few of his own, from what I understand.
   4521. Jay Z Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:08 AM (#4296331)
Very short and seemingly earnest... Romney could have been a great president in 1960. Certainly does not seem like a bad guy.


I think a lot of people could have been great presidents in 1960. Wasn't exactly the most challenging time.
   4522. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:09 AM (#4296332)
I'm at my EC# at this point but it looks like Obama is going to get Florida and unless the West Coast tilts heavily towards Obama I'm going to miss on the popular vote.
   4523. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:09 AM (#4296333)
4521 is sarcasm?
   4524. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:09 AM (#4296334)
Very short and seemingly earnest... Romney could have been a great president in 1960. Certainly does not seem like a bad guy.


I think a lot of people could have been great presidents in 1960. Wasn't exactly the most challenging time.


Which one of these is honest belief and which one is sarcasm?
   4525. Poulanc Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:10 AM (#4296335)
So weed now legal in Colorado according to state law, per the voters.

But no sirree, the country is not moving left!



Well, according to national law, it's still illegal.
   4526. tshipman Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:10 AM (#4296336)
It really was classic watching the FOX News "analysts" tilt against the decisions being made by the decision team - a team which seems far more objective and capable.

"We. Are. Not. Losing! No way. NO way!"


Watching the tears stream down Karl Rove's hammy face really was one of my favorite parts of the night.


What a weak night by Romney. Weak performance in the ground game, weak in not conceding, weak concession speech. I'm going to be really glad when no one remembers who he is in four years. Hit the curb, liarman!
   4527. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:10 AM (#4296337)
4388. You rejected it with a series of non-sequitors. Populist movements that exploit 1. the ignorant and 2. the selfish rarely sustain their gains over time.


So, just so I'm clear on your position, you're saying that the move in popular movement (as expressed by voting) towards the legalization of gay marriage across the United States (and keep in mind [and I know this might be hard] that towards *doesn't* have to mean achieving) in the last 10+ years is a result of the exploitation of "1. the ignorant and 2. the selfish?

Is that correct?
   4528. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:10 AM (#4296338)
hey now, within 3 years the president of 1960 stared nuclear war in the face.

and civil rights. and the beginnings of the vietnam war

that time had its challenges
   4529. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:10 AM (#4296339)
Clinton also had a few of his own, from what I understand.
Hi-yo!
   4530. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:10 AM (#4296340)
Allen West lost, per NBC.
Which is awesome, but knocking out camera obsessed wingnut Congressmen is kinda like playing whack-a-mole.
   4531. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:10 AM (#4296341)
Is there anything more tiresome than political pundits?
   4532. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:11 AM (#4296342)
If the GOP are willing to throw out something like Jindal + Rubio , that would change the game big time, but who knows at this point, the truth is the GOP can easily make enough of an adjustment and win in 2016, but the current trend is definately going the wrong way, which is of course however, not truely predictive of the future.
Well, they're brown, but Jindal never recovered from his goofy speech a few years ago. Rubio wouldn't do much better among Hispanics than Romney did. He's a teeper through and through. How many AA votes would Allen West get if he ran for Prez? Would he even nudge 10%? Or, take Sarah Palin. She swung very few female votes to McCain.

I really think they're going to need to change policy, not just color.

The GOP finds a charismatic white guy for 2016, R intransigence stalls the recovery, and the Repubs win the presidency easily. The browning of the electorate is, what? 2% a year? There may not be a reckoning any time soon.

NV, VA, FL not yet called by NBC.

It's remarkable, how close this election came to taking a month to resolve. Anyone who says campaigns don't matter has their head up their butt. Swap the campaign's GOTV efforts and President Romney just gave his acceptance speech.

Wrt the Senate: the Dems pick up a seat?

   4533. Adam M Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:12 AM (#4296343)
Oh, and to be fair, I don't see a dime's worth of difference between RCP and Nate.


RCP had Romney up 1.5% in Florida, 538 had it tied, with a very slight advantage to Obama. That seems worth at least a dime.
   4534. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:13 AM (#4296344)
Now that he's won a second term, I hope Obama titles his Presidential memoir "Born In Kenya."
   4535. Gonfalon B. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:13 AM (#4296345)
hey now, within 3 years the president of 1960 stared nuclear war in the face.
and civil rights. and the beginnings of the vietnam war
that time had its challenges


The book on Kennedy's civil rights leadership could be titled "Profiles in Porridge."
   4536. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:13 AM (#4296346)
Romney's concession speech sounds like a continuation of his campaign. Nixon made a far better one in 1960.

Nixon's was a non-concession concession: "If these numbers hold up . . .


As it turned out, though, that was a reasonable qualifier. NBC first called the election for Kennedy on the basis of California, only to find out that Nixon actually won that state.

Final question of the night: After all is said and done, how many states will Romney win that McCain didn't, other than North Carolina and Indiana? I'm having a hard time thinking of any others.
   4537. Jim Wisinski Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:13 AM (#4296347)
I worked from 3:30 till midnight so I have a ton to catch up on here and haven't read any of it yet. I was listening on the radio through my phone at work (the big local AM news station, it's strongly conservative but I knew it was likely to have good comprehensive coverage of what was going on) and checking on the web from time to time too.

I thought pretty early on that things were looking really good for Obama. Early returns from Florida and Virgina suggested that he was extremely competitive in those states and might even have a slight advantage plus North Carolina was still up in the air for quite a while. If he was doing that well in the three swing states he was most likely to lose then that boded really well for his chances in the swing states he was expected to have a stronger hold on. Once Pennsylvania was called as a clear victory for him after all the hullabaloo about it being in play then I thought that was pretty much it as at that time Florida was leaning towards him a bit and they didn't seem to have any idea which way Virgina would end up going. I didn't really feel a lot of apprehension throughout the night, I thought going in that Obama's chances were quite good and almost everything I was hearing over the radio confirmed that Romney wasn't making any of the gains he needed to if he was going to have a real shot at winning.

Assuming that Florida remains in Obama's column my prediction will end up correct; I don't remember my PV prediction so I'll have to check that once we know the results there. Overall a good night that went about as expected.
   4538. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:13 AM (#4296348)
Now that he's won a second term, I hope Obama title his Presidential memoir "Born In Kenya."

I'm hoping for it in his victory speech.
   4539. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:14 AM (#4296349)
Is there anything more tiresome than political pundits?


People who argue on ESPN.
   4540. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:14 AM (#4296350)
As has been said numerous times the biggest cookie that 538 offers is the primaries and the probabilities he offers in June and such. At the end of the election the predictions are almost totally based on weighted polls which if they are all saying the same thing will look almost exactly like a basic aggregator number.
   4541. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:14 AM (#4296351)
Perfectly cromulent concession... I've got no problem with it.
   4542. tshipman Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:14 AM (#4296352)
Now that he's won a second term, I hope Obama title his Presidential memoir "Born In Kenya."


Innnnnnnnn West Nairobi, born and raised, in the madrassa, I spent most of my days ...
   4543. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:14 AM (#4296353)
I recall a few people in this topic being worried that Akin would still defeat McCaskill because people didn't want to say they were voting for the "legitimate rape" guy in the polls. Well, the polls do seem to have been off, in that McCaskill won by even more than the polls indicated.
   4544. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:14 AM (#4296354)
Well, they're brown, but Jindal never recovered from his goofy speech a few years ago.


If there was such a thing as national dog-catcher, Bobby Jindal couldn't get elected to it.

Man, FOX News now eating a big bag of Nate Silver flavored crow.
   4545. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:15 AM (#4296355)
So weed now legal in Colorado according to state law, per the voters.

But no sirree, the country is not moving left!


George Will once said a suitable goal for conservatives is to reduce government oversight and regulation to what it was in 1900. What was the legal status of marihuana back then?
   4546. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:15 AM (#4296356)
The book on Kennedy's civil rights leadership could be titled "Profiles in Porridge."

As one who was there, that's not a bad description, although he began to make up for it in the last five months of his life.
   4547. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:15 AM (#4296357)
I assume these numbers are preliminary and are still subject to change, but to go back to a question Joe kept asking: Does anybody expect the partisan split of the electorate to be the same as in 2008?

CNN Exit Polls, 2008 (D-R-I): 39-32-29
CNN Exit Polls, 2012 (D-R-I) 38-32-29

So, to answer Joe, pretty much, yeah, same partisan split.
   4548. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:16 AM (#4296358)
hey now, within 3 years the president of 1960 stared nuclear war in the face.

and civil rights. and the beginnings of the vietnam war

that time had its challenges


I'm not saying it was easy, I just think that "he" (or his family/mindset) could have done very well then in the context of what we now think of as "opposite" parties.
   4549. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:16 AM (#4296359)
Every big race has been called in New Hampshire and it's a clean sweep for Democrats. Obama for President, a retention of Governor, and both House seats flip from R to D.
   4550. Gamingboy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:16 AM (#4296360)
Bachman is up by about 1,000 with 72% in
   4551. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:17 AM (#4296361)
I assume these numbers are preliminary and are still subject to change, but to go back to a question Joe kept asking: Does anybody expect the partisan split of the electorate to be the same as in 2008?

CNN Exit Polls, 2008 (D-R-I): 39-32-29
CNN Exit Polls, 2012 (D-R-I) 38-32-29

So, to answer Joe, pretty much, yeah, same partisan split.


But, but, but 2010.
   4552. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:17 AM (#4296362)
So, to answer Joe, pretty much, yeah, same partisan split.

Joe is still confident.
   4553. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:17 AM (#4296363)
Everything turns on Alaska.
   4554. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:17 AM (#4296364)
Every big race has been called in New Hampshire and it's a clean sweep for Democrats.


That can't be true. We've been told Obama didn't bring any Democrats with him, that he doesn't have any mandate.
   4555. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:17 AM (#4296365)
After all is said and done, how many states will Romney win that McCain didn't, other than North Carolina and Indiana? I'm having a hard time thinking of any others.


Assuming Obama wins Florida, that's it. Romney picked up NC and IN, oh, and one congressional district in Omaha, Nebraska (which, as I understand it, the Nebraska legislature re-drew to make it more solidly red).
   4556. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:18 AM (#4296366)
Bachman is up by about 1,000 with 72% in

booo! I'll hold out for Tester as my late night hope, then.
   4557. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:18 AM (#4296367)
CNN Exit Polls, 2008 (D-R-I): 39-32-29
CNN Exit Polls, 2012 (D-R-I) 38-32-29

So, to answer Joe, pretty much, yeah, same partisan split.


Yeah but did they bury the split?
   4558. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:18 AM (#4296368)
Oh, Megyn, does the nation really "wait to hear the President's tone as he addresses a deeply divided nation"???
   4559. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:19 AM (#4296369)
Bachman is up by about 1,000 with 72% in


Sheriff Joe got re-elected too. So, it's not all roses.
   4560. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:21 AM (#4296370)
Reaching back, that CA Prop 35 "anti-trafficing" law is passing like 80-20. No one reads/thinks past the title. ####.
   4561. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:21 AM (#4296371)
4527. Yes.
The pro-SSM bloc is made up for four groups.
1. children of broken families who were denied knowledge of what a family should be (aka the ignorant by no fault of their own)
2. promiscuous heterosexuals seeking to harm their consciences by attacking every reminder of the ideal they've denied. (aka the ignorant by weakened will)
3. secularists and transhumanists who want reductionist definitions of humanity and human institutions that are necessary for their plans for humanity's redesign (aka the selfish)
4. power hungry bureaucrats who want new statutes to enforce against their opponents and competing voices for social instruction (families, churches). (aka the selfish)

Eventually 1 and 2 will find healing and become wise. And 3 and 4 can't maintain power without showing their totalitarian hand and being rebuked by the public. It's not sustainable.
   4562. tshipman Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:21 AM (#4296372)
So, to answer Joe, pretty much, yeah, same partisan split.


That's the real story. That Obama's turnout really was that good. Obama was just that much more effective at turning out people.

15% of the Ohio electorate was black vs. 11% in 2008. Turnout!
   4563. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:22 AM (#4296373)
Sheriff Joe got re-elected too. So, it's not all roses.
Romney is winning AZ by nearly 14 points. I'm rather surprised at the margin - figured it for 8-9 points.
   4564. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:22 AM (#4296374)

"The difference for one or the other will be Florida. Silver had O by the slimmest of margins, RCP had had it for R in its no-tossup map."

I'm going to go ahead and call this one EVEN.

Anyone who would claim that the end result of that tells us which of them did better - really?

The real winners are the pollsters who to a very great extent were able to replicate 2008 sentiment in a changing voter-availability environment. Why anyone assumed they couldn't possibly miss on that given new technology, I can't explain.

But I imagine that the 2016 expectations for 2012 data will linger. I can't say it if it will actually break thru 4 more years of technology again....

   4565. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:23 AM (#4296375)
Nats-Homer, you are a weird dude. I don't even know what you're talking about.
   4566. Guapo Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:23 AM (#4296376)
Peggy Noonan, once more for posterity:

But to the election. Who knows what to make of the weighting of the polls and the assumptions as to who will vote? Who knows the depth and breadth of each party’s turnout efforts? Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.

I think they are and I think it’s this: a Romney win.

Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he’s caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what’s going on at the rallies is moving.

All the vibrations are right. A person who is helping him who is not a longtime Romneyite told me, yesterday: “I joined because I was anti Obama—I’m a patriot, I’ll join up But now I am pro-Romney.” Why? “I’ve spent time with him and I care about him and admire him. He’s a genuinely good man.” Looking at the crowds on TV, hearing them chant “Three more days” and “Two more days”—it feels like a lot of Republicans have gone from anti-Obama to pro-Romney.

Something old is roaring back. One of the Romney campaign’s surrogates, who appeared at a rally with him the other night, spoke of the intensity and joy of the crowd “I worked the rope line, people wouldn’t let go of my hand.” It startled him. A former political figure who’s been in Ohio told me this morning something is moving with evangelicals, other church-going Protestants and religious Catholics. He said what’s happening with them is quiet, unreported and spreading: They really want Romney now, they’ll go out and vote, the election has taken on a new importance to them.

There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same.

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us.


LOL YARD SIGNS
   4567. billyshears Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:23 AM (#4296377)
You guys are all jumping the gun. The electorate was way more Democratic than it should have been. That has to be unskewed before we can declare a winner.
   4568. Gonfalon B. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:24 AM (#4296378)
Bachmann's opponent (Jim Graves) has about 75,000-80,000 uncounted ballots to make up about 1,100 votes.
   4569. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:25 AM (#4296379)
4527. Yes.
The pro-SSM bloc is made up for four groups.
1. children of broken families who were denied knowledge of what a family should be (aka the ignorant by no fault of their own)
2. promiscuous heterosexuals seeking to harm their consciences by attacking every reminder of the ideal they've denied. (aka the ignorant by weakened will)
3. secularists and transhumanists who want reductionist definitions of humanity and human institutions that are necessary for their plans for humanity's redesign (aka the selfish)
4. power hungry bureaucrats who want new statutes to enforce against their opponents and competing voices for social instruction (families, churches). (aka the selfish)

Eventually 1 and 2 will find healing and become wise. And 3 and 4 can't maintain power without showing their totalitarian hand and being rebuked by the public. It's not sustainable.


I assume most of those people are in constant risk of being turned into pillars of salt anyway. Serves 'em right, smiting is too good for some folk.
   4570. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:25 AM (#4296380)
Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us?
SAVOR.
   4571. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:25 AM (#4296381)
Peggy Noonan suuuuuuuuccccccckkkkkkkksssssssssss.
   4572. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:25 AM (#4296382)
He's calling you a sinning fornicator, Shooty.


Re: Obama's ground game - how well will that move to his successor? That is, if the excellent ground game is largely responsible for his win (I don't know if that is true but it is proposed here and elsewhere), is all the Rs have to do to win is either improve theirs or have an opponent without such a ground game?
   4573. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:25 AM (#4296383)
The pro-SSM bloc is made up for four groups.
1. children of broken families who were denied knowledge of what a family should be (aka the ignorant by no fault of their own)
2. promiscuous heterosexuals seeking to harm their consciences by attacking every reminder of the ideal they've denied. (aka the ignorant by weakened will)
3. secularists and transhumanists who want reductionist definitions of humanity and human institutions that are necessary for their plans for humanity's redesign (aka the selfish)
4. power hungry bureaucrats who want new statutes to enforce against their opponents and competing voices for social instruction (families, churches). (aka the selfish)

Eventually 1 and 2 will find healing and become wise. And 3 and 4 can't maintain power without showing their totalitarian hand and being rebuked by the public. It's not sustainable.


Alright, now I *know* I'm just being trolled.

Own up, people, who's got their hand up this sock puppet's ass???

   4574. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:26 AM (#4296384)
4547.
I assume these numbers are preliminary and are still subject to change, but to go back to a question Joe kept asking: Does anybody expect the partisan split of the electorate to be the same as in 2008?


That topic wasn't about exit poll data, which few as a reliable indicator.
It was about voter turnout. Was it appropriate to develop a polling sample according to 2008 voter turnout, and not the historical trends?
   4575. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:26 AM (#4296385)
Every time I see Peggy Noonan on a pundit show she appears to be falling asleep from boredom and then suddenly she half wakes up to make a completely unoriginal point about something marginally on topic from five minutes ago that is completely obvious to everyone. She is completely irrelevant, at least Dick Morris is unintentionally hilarious.
   4576. tshipman Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:27 AM (#4296386)
Own up, people, who's got their hand up this sock puppet's ass???


Nats-Homer-In-DC, and we haven't seen Esoteric or Joey B in the thread so far.

(to be fair, if it were Esoteric, the handle would be: Nats/Mariners Bigamist in DC)
   4577. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:27 AM (#4296387)
He's calling you a sinning fornicator, Shooty.

I wish!

God I'm sleepy. Speech already you muslim commie Kenyan!
   4578. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:27 AM (#4296388)
Yeah but did they bury the split?


Stupid voters are mistaken if they think their electorate will look like 2008. Someone check the crosstabs.
   4579. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:27 AM (#4296389)
Romney is winning AZ by nearly 14 points. I'm rather surprised at the margin - figured it for 8-9 points.


GO BIG OR GO HOME!

hangs head, kicks can ...
   4580. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4296390)
Nats-Homer-In-DC, and we haven't seen Esoteric or Joey B in the thread so far.

Joey B. Good call. He's not usually at a loss for words.
   4581. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4296391)
Re: Obama's ground game - how well will that move to his successor?


Probably pretty well because his successor will have the Obama stamp of approval. He can directly pass the torch.
   4582. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4296392)
Joe is still confident.

I am increasingly so.
   4583. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4296393)
Was it appropriate to develop a polling sample according to 2008 voter turnout, and not the historical trends?


And the answer quite obviously turned out to be, "Yes, yes it was".
   4584. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:29 AM (#4296394)
I concur with the final statement in 4577.
   4585. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:29 AM (#4296395)
Still waiting for Obama. Apparently he didn't have his victory speech written.
   4586. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:29 AM (#4296396)
Where's Joe K? I thought that Silver kid was flim-flam!
   4587. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:29 AM (#4296397)
4561 - Yap yap yap yap. You're dying out, but not fast enough to save your own party - a complete and utter win/win. Your way of thinking is moving into the past. Goodbye, and no one cares.

And Ray continues to kill it. Hope and change.
   4588. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:30 AM (#4296398)
The book on Kennedy's civil rights leadership could be titled "Profiles in Porridge."

As one who was there, that's not a bad description, although he began to make up for it in the last five months of his life.


He also should get some credit for reaching out to King when MLK was jailed in Georgia right at crunch time in the 1960 campaign, though I guess that was really RFK's idea for securing the African American vote.
   4589. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:30 AM (#4296399)
Do you know that for sure, DA? I guess I'm asking how well these sorts of organizations hang together over 4 years. Historically.
   4590. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:30 AM (#4296400)
You guys are all jumping the gun. The electorate was way more Democratic than it should have been. That has to be unskewed before we can declare a winner.
don't forget about all the voter-suppression tactics that democrats have been using to disenfranchise republican voters.
   4591. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:30 AM (#4296401)
Still waiting for Obama. Apparently he didn't have his victory speech written.

Can't he just read Romney's?
   4592. Jay Z Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:30 AM (#4296402)
As far as 1960, I don't think a Mormon would have been electable in 1960. There were issues about a Catholic.

Of course, there is the fact that divorced Unitarian Stevenson could ONLY win in the South and nowhere else.
   4593. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:30 AM (#4296403)

Nats-Homer-In-DC, and we haven't seen Esoteric or Joey B in the thread so far.


Yeah, but as incoherent as [4561] is, it would represent a new high-water mark of coherence for the Red Diaper Baby Boy ...
   4594. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:31 AM (#4296404)
4527. Yes.
The pro-SSM bloc is made up for four groups.
1. children of broken families who were denied knowledge of what a family should be (aka the ignorant by no fault of their own)
2. promiscuous heterosexuals seeking to harm their consciences by attacking every reminder of the ideal they've denied. (aka the ignorant by weakened will)
3. secularists and transhumanists who want reductionist definitions of humanity and human institutions that are necessary for their plans for humanity's redesign (aka the selfish)
4. power hungry bureaucrats who want new statutes to enforce against their opponents and competing voices for social instruction (families, churches). (aka the selfish)

Eventually 1 and 2 will find healing and become wise. And 3 and 4 can't maintain power without showing their totalitarian hand and being rebuked by the public. It's not sustainable.


Yeah, there's no way this is for real.
   4595. tshipman Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:31 AM (#4296405)
Still waiting for Obama. Apparently he didn't have his victory speech written.


Hoping he wakes up for this one. Blow the ####### doors off, O! You're not going to get another opportunity at this one!
   4596. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:31 AM (#4296406)
That topic wasn't about exit poll data, which few as a reliable indicator.
It was about voter turnout. Was it appropriate to develop a polling sample according to 2008 voter turnout, and not the historical trends?


No. Joe consistently asked "Does anyone here actually believe the 2012 electorate will be more Dem than in 2008?" Turns out, it was!

   4597. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:32 AM (#4296407)
Tester still up.
   4598. Poulanc Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:32 AM (#4296408)
Bachmann's opponent (Jim Graves) has about 75,000-80,000 uncounted ballots to make up about 1,100 votes.



Here's hoping those ballots are from the St. Cloud area.


EDIT : And according to the Secretary of State's count, it's a 650 vote lead for Bachmann with 72% in.
   4599. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:32 AM (#4296409)
Eso gets too irritated with everyone, which I'm sorry for, I enjoy his presence.
   4600. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:32 AM (#4296410)
I think most of the supporters of gay marriage are men who just afraid to sleep with other men, as they desire, without society's permission.
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