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I agree on that point. I'm sure he is a good person, I just disagree with almost all of his policies.
Second terms since 1864, not counting the veeps who won their own term:
Lincoln - shot and killed
Grant - Panic of 1873
Cleveland - The first Great Depression
McKinley - shot and killed
Wilson - didn't keep us out of war, had a stroke
FDR - caused a recession by trying to balance the budget, otherwise the country probably was a little better off as it gradually recovered, even though war was coming
Ike - probably more enjoyable since McCarthy was sidelined, not that Ike had anything to do with that. Okay I guess
Nixon - Watergate, energy crisis
Reagan - Iran Contra and stock market crash. Though on balance the economy still might have been better in Term 2 than Term 1.
Clinton - Impeached. Continued to deregulate, which didn't help us down the road but probably was going to happen no matter who was prez.
Bush - everyone remembers.
I'd settle for competence, incrementalism, and some bipartisam budget agreement that doesn't cause a recession.
Seems to work for Sarah Palin.
Nixon's was a non-concession concession: "If these numbers hold up . . .
It's a fine line to walk though, because he's a huge target for Democrats now.
I guess I just expected the speech to be a little longer, that's all. Nothing more, really.
"We. Are. Not. Losing! No way. NO way!"
Bachman is in a dogfight. That would be a capper for the night.
True. But becoming President should be hard.
To be at least as good as McCain's.
Eh. I'm not really as sure. But I barely care at this point.
Clinton also had a few of his own, from what I understand.
I think a lot of people could have been great presidents in 1960. Wasn't exactly the most challenging time.
I think a lot of people could have been great presidents in 1960. Wasn't exactly the most challenging time.
Which one of these is honest belief and which one is sarcasm?
Well, according to national law, it's still illegal.
Watching the tears stream down Karl Rove's hammy face really was one of my favorite parts of the night.
What a weak night by Romney. Weak performance in the ground game, weak in not conceding, weak concession speech. I'm going to be really glad when no one remembers who he is in four years. Hit the curb, liarman!
So, just so I'm clear on your position, you're saying that the move in popular movement (as expressed by voting) towards the legalization of gay marriage across the United States (and keep in mind [and I know this might be hard] that towards *doesn't* have to mean achieving) in the last 10+ years is a result of the exploitation of "1. the ignorant and 2. the selfish?
Is that correct?
and civil rights. and the beginnings of the vietnam war
that time had its challenges
I really think they're going to need to change policy, not just color.
The GOP finds a charismatic white guy for 2016, R intransigence stalls the recovery, and the Repubs win the presidency easily. The browning of the electorate is, what? 2% a year? There may not be a reckoning any time soon.
NV, VA, FL not yet called by NBC.
It's remarkable, how close this election came to taking a month to resolve. Anyone who says campaigns don't matter has their head up their butt. Swap the campaign's GOTV efforts and President Romney just gave his acceptance speech.
Wrt the Senate: the Dems pick up a seat?
RCP had Romney up 1.5% in Florida, 538 had it tied, with a very slight advantage to Obama. That seems worth at least a dime.
and civil rights. and the beginnings of the vietnam war
that time had its challenges
The book on Kennedy's civil rights leadership could be titled "Profiles in Porridge."
Nixon's was a non-concession concession: "If these numbers hold up . . .
As it turned out, though, that was a reasonable qualifier. NBC first called the election for Kennedy on the basis of California, only to find out that Nixon actually won that state.
Final question of the night: After all is said and done, how many states will Romney win that McCain didn't, other than North Carolina and Indiana? I'm having a hard time thinking of any others.
I thought pretty early on that things were looking really good for Obama. Early returns from Florida and Virgina suggested that he was extremely competitive in those states and might even have a slight advantage plus North Carolina was still up in the air for quite a while. If he was doing that well in the three swing states he was most likely to lose then that boded really well for his chances in the swing states he was expected to have a stronger hold on. Once Pennsylvania was called as a clear victory for him after all the hullabaloo about it being in play then I thought that was pretty much it as at that time Florida was leaning towards him a bit and they didn't seem to have any idea which way Virgina would end up going. I didn't really feel a lot of apprehension throughout the night, I thought going in that Obama's chances were quite good and almost everything I was hearing over the radio confirmed that Romney wasn't making any of the gains he needed to if he was going to have a real shot at winning.
Assuming that Florida remains in Obama's column my prediction will end up correct; I don't remember my PV prediction so I'll have to check that once we know the results there. Overall a good night that went about as expected.
I'm hoping for it in his victory speech.
People who argue on ESPN.
Innnnnnnnn West Nairobi, born and raised, in the madrassa, I spent most of my days ...
If there was such a thing as national dog-catcher, Bobby Jindal couldn't get elected to it.
Man, FOX News now eating a big bag of Nate Silver flavored crow.
George Will once said a suitable goal for conservatives is to reduce government oversight and regulation to what it was in 1900. What was the legal status of marihuana back then?
As one who was there, that's not a bad description, although he began to make up for it in the last five months of his life.
CNN Exit Polls, 2008 (D-R-I): 39-32-29
CNN Exit Polls, 2012 (D-R-I) 38-32-29
So, to answer Joe, pretty much, yeah, same partisan split.
I'm not saying it was easy, I just think that "he" (or his family/mindset) could have done very well then in the context of what we now think of as "opposite" parties.
CNN Exit Polls, 2008 (D-R-I): 39-32-29
CNN Exit Polls, 2012 (D-R-I) 38-32-29
So, to answer Joe, pretty much, yeah, same partisan split.
But, but, but 2010.
Joe is still confident.
That can't be true. We've been told Obama didn't bring any Democrats with him, that he doesn't have any mandate.
Assuming Obama wins Florida, that's it. Romney picked up NC and IN, oh, and one congressional district in Omaha, Nebraska (which, as I understand it, the Nebraska legislature re-drew to make it more solidly red).
booo! I'll hold out for Tester as my late night hope, then.
Yeah but did they bury the split?
Sheriff Joe got re-elected too. So, it's not all roses.
The pro-SSM bloc is made up for four groups.
1. children of broken families who were denied knowledge of what a family should be (aka the ignorant by no fault of their own)
2. promiscuous heterosexuals seeking to harm their consciences by attacking every reminder of the ideal they've denied. (aka the ignorant by weakened will)
3. secularists and transhumanists who want reductionist definitions of humanity and human institutions that are necessary for their plans for humanity's redesign (aka the selfish)
4. power hungry bureaucrats who want new statutes to enforce against their opponents and competing voices for social instruction (families, churches). (aka the selfish)
Eventually 1 and 2 will find healing and become wise. And 3 and 4 can't maintain power without showing their totalitarian hand and being rebuked by the public. It's not sustainable.
That's the real story. That Obama's turnout really was that good. Obama was just that much more effective at turning out people.
15% of the Ohio electorate was black vs. 11% in 2008. Turnout!
"The difference for one or the other will be Florida. Silver had O by the slimmest of margins, RCP had had it for R in its no-tossup map."
I'm going to go ahead and call this one EVEN.
Anyone who would claim that the end result of that tells us which of them did better - really?
The real winners are the pollsters who to a very great extent were able to replicate 2008 sentiment in a changing voter-availability environment. Why anyone assumed they couldn't possibly miss on that given new technology, I can't explain.
But I imagine that the 2016 expectations for 2012 data will linger. I can't say it if it will actually break thru 4 more years of technology again....
LOL YARD SIGNS
I assume most of those people are in constant risk of being turned into pillars of salt anyway. Serves 'em right, smiting is too good for some folk.
Re: Obama's ground game - how well will that move to his successor? That is, if the excellent ground game is largely responsible for his win (I don't know if that is true but it is proposed here and elsewhere), is all the Rs have to do to win is either improve theirs or have an opponent without such a ground game?
Alright, now I *know* I'm just being trolled.
Own up, people, who's got their hand up this sock puppet's ass???
That topic wasn't about exit poll data, which few as a reliable indicator.
It was about voter turnout. Was it appropriate to develop a polling sample according to 2008 voter turnout, and not the historical trends?
Nats-Homer-In-DC, and we haven't seen Esoteric or Joey B in the thread so far.
(to be fair, if it were Esoteric, the handle would be: Nats/Mariners Bigamist in DC)
I wish!
God I'm sleepy. Speech already you muslim commie Kenyan!
Stupid voters are mistaken if they think their electorate will look like 2008. Someone check the crosstabs.
GO BIG OR GO HOME!
hangs head, kicks can ...
Joey B. Good call. He's not usually at a loss for words.
Probably pretty well because his successor will have the Obama stamp of approval. He can directly pass the torch.
I am increasingly so.
And the answer quite obviously turned out to be, "Yes, yes it was".
And Ray continues to kill it. Hope and change.
He also should get some credit for reaching out to King when MLK was jailed in Georgia right at crunch time in the 1960 campaign, though I guess that was really RFK's idea for securing the African American vote.
Can't he just read Romney's?
Of course, there is the fact that divorced Unitarian Stevenson could ONLY win in the South and nowhere else.
Yeah, but as incoherent as [4561] is, it would represent a new high-water mark of coherence for the Red Diaper Baby Boy ...
The pro-SSM bloc is made up for four groups.
1. children of broken families who were denied knowledge of what a family should be (aka the ignorant by no fault of their own)
2. promiscuous heterosexuals seeking to harm their consciences by attacking every reminder of the ideal they've denied. (aka the ignorant by weakened will)
3. secularists and transhumanists who want reductionist definitions of humanity and human institutions that are necessary for their plans for humanity's redesign (aka the selfish)
4. power hungry bureaucrats who want new statutes to enforce against their opponents and competing voices for social instruction (families, churches). (aka the selfish)
Eventually 1 and 2 will find healing and become wise. And 3 and 4 can't maintain power without showing their totalitarian hand and being rebuked by the public. It's not sustainable.
Yeah, there's no way this is for real.
Hoping he wakes up for this one. Blow the ####### doors off, O! You're not going to get another opportunity at this one!
No. Joe consistently asked "Does anyone here actually believe the 2012 electorate will be more Dem than in 2008?" Turns out, it was!
Here's hoping those ballots are from the St. Cloud area.
EDIT : And according to the Secretary of State's count, it's a 650 vote lead for Bachmann with 72% in.
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