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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   4701. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:10 AM (#4296512)
congrats to maryland for finally everyone to TRULY pursue life, liberty and THE PURSUITE OF HAPPINESS


spelling is a fail
   4702. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:13 AM (#4296513)
Alright, time to go to bed.

Wake up tomorrow and see what damage the Propositions have wrought ...
   4703. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:14 AM (#4296514)
Obama said he was going to leave states alone on this, and he didn't: the buck stops with him.


I don't disagree. Obama's drug policy is dumb. It's on the list of things I disagree with him about.
   4704. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:15 AM (#4296515)
Judging by the trend line of the statewide vote in California, it looks like there's going to be a little bit more of separation in the national popular vote than it appeared earlier that there would be.
   4705. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:17 AM (#4296516)
4 counties left with precincts out for ND. All deep red, Heitkamp up 3k. Recount!

Tester's up 8 in Montana with 36% in, less than 1% of Missoula and Lewis & Clark reporting (but 60k early vote in both)

Heller and Barkeley seems a tossup.
   4706. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:18 AM (#4296517)
Looks like ~10 seat gain for Dems in the House.
   4707. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:19 AM (#4296518)
Extrapolating blindly from the third of the ballots reported, Obama might improve his national margin by 2 million votes thanks to California.
   4708. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:19 AM (#4296519)
Triplepost- Them polls were pretty good! No major surprises, I think on the NYTimes safe list in the house only Ben Chandler in KY-06 lost. Given that it's like 350ish seats, that's pretty good accuracy.
   4709. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:20 AM (#4296520)
OK, I can see that deciding the president by popular vote would have some recount issues... but why are EC votes tied to states? Just apportion them by state. Then you only recount places where the representative EC vote is close.


And futhermore, why are their 435 Representatives and 538 EC votes. Just make them the same thing. This would actually be a USEFUL case of gerrymandering - since the Rep districts would proxy presidential votes. They are already proportional and there are regulations for expanding them as the population changes.

I mean, why should Cleveland counter all of Rural Ohio's votes? Or the rural Georgia trump Atlanta?

Anyway, I am sure this is not an original idea, so it probably has some horrible legal flaw that I am missing.
   4710. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:20 AM (#4296521)
Bachmann up by 1350; 80% reporting.
   4711. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:21 AM (#4296522)
Scratch that house count, i clearly misread something.
   4712. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:22 AM (#4296523)
Bachmann back on top by 1,700 votes with about 68,000 ballots remaining.

Obama leading Virginia by more than 2%, with over 99% reporting.
   4713. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:22 AM (#4296524)
4709: That's even worse than we currently have. The clear solution is to simply go to a national popular vote.

eta: to clarify, they're already tied to states. A state's EV = 2 senators + house seats. If you're saying you should give EVs by house district one, you're saying that a good gerrymander will result in 5 districts winning 53-47 and 1 district going 80-20 in the other direction, a vastly greater distortion of the popular vote.
   4714. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:23 AM (#4296525)
Rachel Maddow on MSNBC a minute ago: "The winner of tonight's election is Nate Silver."
   4715. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:23 AM (#4296526)
Sheldon Anderson spent approximately $70million to support first Newt Gingrich, and then Mitt Romney.

And for all his money spent...
   4716. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:25 AM (#4296528)
bachmann up by 1,690 w 81% in.

And futhermore, why are their 435 Representatives and 538 EC votes. Just make them the same thing. This would actually be a USEFUL case of gerrymandering - since the Rep districts would proxy presidential votes. They are already proportional and there are regulations for expanding them as the population changes.
EC = #Reps in a state + 2 senators, + 3 for DC.

The +2 bonus does overrep the small states. Again.
   4717. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:26 AM (#4296529)
Heidi Heitkamp a little over 3,000 votes up for N.Dakota Senate, with about 6,400 ballots remaining.
   4718. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:26 AM (#4296530)
Matheson beat Love, once again the GOP has no african americans on the federal level (assuming that holds).
   4719. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:27 AM (#4296531)
Heidi Heitkamp a little over 3,000 votes up for N.Dakota Senate, with about 6,400 ballots remaining.


Coming from 4 red counties. Either way it's going to be a recount, because it'll be close.

(edited)
   4720. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:27 AM (#4296532)
4660. You didn't mention if you fit group 3.
   4721. Nats-Homer-in-DC Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:28 AM (#4296533)
4660 (Dave).
   4722. Jay Z Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:28 AM (#4296534)
Sheldon Anderson spent approximately $70million to support first Newt Gingrich, and then Mitt Romney.


He must have been the one millionaire Gingrich said he had on his side, to Romney's 16 or whatever.
   4723. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:29 AM (#4296535)
Doug Burns, Fox's election atty, yammering on about Obama, and how he was photographed from below 'just like in a socialist country'. Fox's cretinous blond going on about how isn't it odd, that there were last minute software patches on the voting machines? Very suspicious...

Husted was your guy, #######.

Ah, and now the Foxheads are blaming George Bush.
   4724. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:31 AM (#4296536)
Husted was a secret liburul obammercrat! And as Politico proved, it only counts if white men support you!
   4725. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:36 AM (#4296537)
Wait, what? Politico had an article on the white vote? Must have missed it.

Ugh--the counties in MN with uncounted votes mostly lean Bachmann. It doesn't look good for Graves.

Foxheads now wondering, since Obama no longer has to pander to his base, will he move to the center?

HAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHA. Ouch. I think they're serious.
   4726. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:37 AM (#4296538)
Sooo...

As we get more downballot calls, my predictions actually look like they may end up sucking... I missed Obama/EC by Florida (more than likely, at least) -- but it appears that I might have missed the Senate by two Dems (depending on Heitkamp and Berkely... both of whom could still lose).

I ended undershooting the house pretty good, too -- looks like the Dems might actually go +10 or even better in the House. The Dems got both NH seats - I thought they'd only get one. They actually hit their absolute limit in IL -- looking like +4, I had them +2. They did better in NY than I figured and look like they might get a couple in FL. Looks like both Barrow and Matheson hang on -- both of which utterly shock me.

The pool I do was big money, so I have to admit a bit of selfish disappointment... but when the dust settles, this is actually going to look like a much, much better night up and down the line for Democrats that I expected - and I expected them to win seats in both chambers and keep the WH with relative ease.

Gonna have to go see where the tossup/uncalled House seats are at...

Without going back to look at past elections - I think Team Blue overperformed expectations by a pretty healthy clip.
   4727. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:39 AM (#4296539)
Not called yet, but it looks like Pete Stark might be going down.
   4728. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:40 AM (#4296540)
I'm still waiting for UnskewedPolls.com to update their site. I need to make sense of all this.
   4729. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:40 AM (#4296541)
Yeah, I'm stunned that Dems might still end up +3 in the senate, I had them +1 and it could still end up that way. I undershot Obama by 29 on EVs, giving Florida to Romney. I loved that CBS was still bloviating about Ohio being close despite both having called it (correctly, given how many Cleveland, Cinci, and Toledo votes were outstanding) and despite Obama won anyways without VA, OH, or FL.
   4730. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:43 AM (#4296542)
They certainly overperformed my expectations.
   4731. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:44 AM (#4296543)
More-minority leader Mitch McConnell, because he can't punch the entire Tea Party:

“I extend my sincere congratulations to President Obama and Vice President Biden on their hard-fought victory, and I would like to thank Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan for running a great campaign based on concrete solutions to the tremendous economic challenges we continue to face.

“The American people did two things: they gave President Obama a second chance to fix the problems that even he admits he failed to solve during his first four years in office, and they preserved Republican control of the House of Representatives.

“The voters have not endorsed the failures or excesses of the president’s first term, they have simply given him more time to finish the job they asked him to do together with a Congress that restored balance to Washington after two years of one-party control.

“Now it’s time for the president to propose solutions that actually have a chance of passing the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and a closely-divided Senate, step up to the plate on the challenges of the moment, and deliver in a way that he did not in his first four years in office.

“To the extent he wants to move to the political center, which is where the work gets done in a divided government, we’ll be there to meet him half way.

“That begins by proposing a way for both parties to work together in avoiding the ‘fiscal cliff’ without harming a weak and fragile economy, and when that is behind us work with us to reform the tax code and our broken entitlement system. Republicans are eager to hear the president’s proposals on these and many other pressing issues going forward and to do the work the people sent us here to do.”


Mitch McConnell faces a primary in 18 months.
   4732. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:45 AM (#4296544)
Wait, what? Politico had an article on the white vote? Must have missed it.


It was stating that you only have a mandate if you have white male voters. So the dude who won tonight, with a literal rainbow coalition, won't have a mandate. Perfectly fair to argue that Obama won a close election and doesn't have a mandate, massively dickish and racist to say that the reason he doesn't have a mandate is because white dudes are what makes a mandate. But, eh. Politico. In a just world, Dylan Byers would be forced to be an unpaid intern for HuffPo the next four years. Instead, he'll probably join a reputable news organization and earn a decent living.
   4733. Sunday silence Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:46 AM (#4296545)
If you need any more clear proof that one man/one vote in this country is a silly fairy tale: look no further than the electoral college and the popular vote. Despite whatever Calif. does later tonight, as it stands now Obama is up 0.3% in the pop. vote and has already won a fairly strong majority (300 ish) in the EC to end this game not long after midnight.

So it really doesnt matter if Calif does go 3 M for Obama or whatever it does. The fact is, the current count in the EC is still a done deal in Obama's favor and this with a statistical dead heat. You dont have to belive there's something philosphically wrong with that. But you are stupid if you ever think ONE VOTE, per se, matters in this country.

It should have already been obvious after the chad election of 2000 and it's damn clear now that current presidential elections cannot be decided by one vote. This is now the 3rd time in the last 4 elections that this sort of result either happened; or came close to happening. In 2000, GOre I believe won the popular vote but lost the EC; and Carey in 2004 actually could have lost the pop vote by something like 3% and still have won the EC if he had won OH. This both a peculiar trend as well as troubling one. I mean peculiar in that I dont think these recent near misses are random, rather they are part of a particular strategy deliberately aimed at taking "battle ground states." Whatever they may be in whatever year it is.

Not that I blame the strategists. Carville was saying further back, really 20 years ago that they didnt win the election so much as pick the pocket of the EC.
   4734. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:46 AM (#4296546)
This reminds me a little of '68, when the popular vote was extremely close but the EC not so much. In that one, Nixon won most of the battleground states by small margins just as Obama did tonight.
   4735. Poulanc Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:49 AM (#4296547)
bachmann up by 1,690 w 81% in.


Now less than 700 w/ 83% reporting.
   4736. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:49 AM (#4296548)
If you need any more clear proof that one man/one vote in this country is a silly fairy tale: look no further than the electoral college and the popular vote. Despite whatever Calif. does later tonight, as it stands now Obama is up 0.3% in the pop. vote and has already won a fairly strong majority (300 ish) in the EC to end this game not long after midnight.


Not that I don't agree on the EC/pop vote --

But I'd note that there are a decent number of uncounted ballots in states already called for Obama that tend to be deep blue districts. It's not going to be 3%, and probably not 2% -- but it's gonna be in spitting distance, I bet, when all is said and done.
   4737. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:50 AM (#4296549)
I assume these numbers are preliminary and are still subject to change, but to go back to a question Joe kept asking: Does anybody expect the partisan split of the electorate to be the same as in 2008?

CNN Exit Polls, 2008 (D-R-I): 39-32-29
CNN Exit Polls, 2012 (D-R-I) 38-32-29

So, to answer Joe, pretty much, yeah, same partisan split.

There were no or reduced exit polls in 19 states this year, 16 of which were won by Romney. This almost assuredly affected the numbers shown above.

If the partisan split was the same in 2012 as 2008 but Obama won by only ~2 points instead of 7, that's a big drop for Obama. Either the party ID split will end up being lower than was reported in today's exit polls or Obama underperformed the party ID split by 5 points.

***
No. Joe consistently asked "Does anyone here actually believe the 2012 electorate will be more Dem than in 2008?" Turns out, it was!

If 2012 was more Dem than 2008, Obama underperformed substantially.

***

Anyway, congrats to the Obama supporters here. I'm surprised Obama was able to overcome the various headwinds that historically made reelection difficult for incumbents in his position — bad economy, high unemployment, stagnant wages, sub-50 job approval, etc., etc. — but Obama and his media surrogates clearly were very successful in keeping this election from being a referendum on the economy.

On the plus side, the GOP is in much better shape today than it was on Election Day 2008. No one will be talking about the "death of the GOP" tomorrow, like they were in 2008.
   4738. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:51 AM (#4296550)
Right now there's a 1.2% spread (49.8 to 48.6), not 0.3. And it's growing, so that Obama is likely to finish above 50%, which I think is of some significance.

EDIT: That's on the subject of the national popular vote.
   4739. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:52 AM (#4296551)
Percentage of the Hispanic vote:
Bush 40%
McCain 31%
Romney 21% (provisional)
   4740. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:54 AM (#4296552)
Thanks for the summary, CT. There's definitely some true ugly in there.

Interesting--Chris Hayes is claiming that the Tea Party cost the GOP five Senate seats. Good news if it causes the Republicans to calm the #### down, but is he right? Hayes also claims we're seeing a notably different electorate showing up every four years, for the presidential election years, than we are for the midterms. Someone upthread mentioned carrying Obama's ground game into the Democratic party's future. I'd love to see him call on his GOTV people for the 2014 midterms.

Me too, as in missing FL, and undercalling gains in the Senate and House.

McConnell is simply swine. 'If he wants to move to the center..." Why not just say what you mean? 'If Obama wants to become a registered Republican, we might give him a seat at the kiddie's table".

NBC calling Nevada for Obama. 'Bout time. Heitkamp v Berg too close, as is Tester, but he's up by 4% w 62% in. Looks promising. Allen West down by 2,200 w 99% of the vote in.
   4741. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:56 AM (#4296553)
Mitch McConnell faces a primary in a safe Republican state. Unless the Tea Party just doubles down on knocking every Republican establishment character that they can, he's probably is safe. The bigger issue is why McConnell is the Senate Minority Leader if he can't get his party to the promised land despite the advantages they had in this election.
   4742. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:58 AM (#4296554)
The fact is, the current count in the EC is still a done deal in Obama's favor and this with a statistical dead heat.


Uh, by definition elections are not a statistical dead heat. I don't think you know what that means.

JOE! Glad that you're still spinning! How many seats you guys gonna take back in 2014? Probably a good number, given the historical record. Maybe you should pay attention to the actual numbers next time, though.
   4743. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:58 AM (#4296555)
Chris Matthews, apparently trying to bump his "thrill up the leg" line down to #2:

"I'm so glad we had that storm last week."

(Because of bipartisanship.)
   4744. Poulanc Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:58 AM (#4296556)
Marriage amendment defeated in Minnesota.
   4745. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:58 AM (#4296557)
bachmann up by 1,690 w 81% in.

Now less than 700 w/ 83% reporting.
More updated than my source. What's your site?
   4746. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:00 AM (#4296558)
Democrats will take Barack Obama's 2012 "underperformance" every ding-dong day of the week.
   4747. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:00 AM (#4296559)
http://isnatesilverawitch.com/

Nate Silver is now probably a witch.
   4748. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:02 AM (#4296560)
Now with 86.4% reporting, Bachmann is up 1,612 as updated on Politico. Approximately 48,000 ballots outstanding.
   4749. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:02 AM (#4296561)
i mean, it's going to be rough to take back the house before 2016, but yeah. a probable dem majority in the senate for the next few elections (tough holds in 2014, great chances in 2016) and the presidency for 4 years with what looks to be a durable coalition. but us Dems have very good reasons to be happy right now.
   4750. Poulanc Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:02 AM (#4296562)
More updated than my source. What's your site?


Secretary of state.
   4751. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:04 AM (#4296563)
Thanks, Poulanc.

The bigger issue is why McConnell is the Senate Minority Leader if he can't get his party to the promised land despite the advantages they had in this election.

Could any leader, though, have kept the Tea Party from running its people in the primaries this year? I don't know that anyone blames McConnell for Mourdock's, or Akin's mouth. I guess he could come to grief if it's one of those 'someone has to take the fall' situations...

"I'm so glad we had that storm last week." He dint! (Did he?)
   4752. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:05 AM (#4296564)
Jack I know for sure the Tea Party cost them Lugars seat. Mourdock got lucky in the primarys then lost a seat held by repubs for over 30 years. hell if Lugar had msde it to today I would have voted for him
   4753. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:07 AM (#4296565)
and Carey in 2004

Really?


On the plus side, the GOP is in much better shape today than it was on Election Day 2008. No one will be talking about the "death of the GOP" tomorrow, like they were in 2008.


Yeah, their in great shape. Couldn't beat a black man coming off a four year recession and a major foreign policy #### up. Great shape indeed. They are getting crushed in cities (which are only going to become more prevalent), crushed with minorities (becoming less minor every day), crushed with the youth vote (they'll turn some of them, but it's an uphill battle), and losing women (more and more a stronger force in this society). They need to rethink everything. Maybe adopt a social policy or two that isn't based on the Old Testament.

   4754. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:08 AM (#4296566)
Obama up by 43,000 in Florida with 98.8% reporting. I don't think there are half that many ballots remaining. Obama's 0.5% margin is the state's standard for an automatic recount.
   4755. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:09 AM (#4296567)
Jack @4740: Akin, Mourdock, Christine O'Donnel, Joe Miller in Alaska (though that's still Republican), and that "chickens for check ups" nutter who lost Harry Reid.

Fox is awesome right now: "Sure, Obama won, but I still can't get gas in my car!"
   4756. OCF Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:09 AM (#4296568)
In California, about 50% of the statewide vote is in but only about 1/3 of LA County. Prop 30 is up statewide a little less than 52-48, but is 57-43 in LA County. I was pessimistic going into tonight but maybe it will hold. Its failure would cause immediate serious pain to the state university systems and their students, and probably cause a lot of K-12 teachers to be laid off.

My unfavorite argument of the political season, from the TV ads of the anti-Prop 30 folks: why the politicians could spend money raised by these taxes any way they wanted to. What that is is an explicit argument against the state having a budgetary general fund.

And yes, I know what some people here will say about any kind of tax increase, ever, for anything. And what at least someone on this thread has already said about Prop. 30. Here's one take: the economic recovery has been far slower in California than in most places, and the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high. Part of the reason is that the housing crash and foreclosure wave struck especially deeply, but another reason for the slow recovery is Keynesian: state and local governments have hit the "austerity" button particularly hard, and public employment has declined sharply.
   4757. BrianBrianson Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:11 AM (#4296569)
Despite whatever Calif. does later tonight, as it stands now Obama is up 0.3% in the pop. vote and has already won a fairly strong majority (300 ish) in the EC to end this game not long after midnight.


That 300-ish includes California, while the up 0.3% doesn't include California. Apples to Oranges.
   4758. Jim Wisinski Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:12 AM (#4296570)
On the plus side, the GOP is in much better shape today than it was on Election Day 2008. No one will be talking about the "death of the GOP" tomorrow, like they were in 2008.


Not true. I mentioned earlier that I was following the election via a very conservative local station (airs Beck, Hannity, Limbaugh, etc.) and the guy hosting the show and the biggest local host (Todd Schnitt) were extremely negative on the current state of the GOP and its future in presidential elections. They blasted the far right and the social conservative wing for dragging the party away from the direction the country is trending as a whole (mainly in regards to gay rights, womens issues, and policies involving Hispanics) and not only preventing Romney from winning this year but ensuring that future elections will be very difficult to win as well unless the party changes its approach. Their view is that Republicans are great on the economy and general direction of the country and need to just focus on that while putting the social issues and policies perceived to be anti-minority to the side. The term "exclusive" was used repeatedly in reference to the Republican party becoming nothing more than the white party while the Democratic Party was getting everyone else (and doing better among women)

I don't agree with them about Republicans being the right choice for the economy these days but I think they're absolutely right that the reason Romney isn't the president-elect now is because the party's platform is viewed as anti-minority, anti-gay, and too interfering in women's reproductive rights. If Romney could have avoided the social platform albatross that the party hung around his neck and actually been able to make the election a referendum on the economy then he would have won.
   4759. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:14 AM (#4296571)
Obama is up by over a million in California, and up by over 550,000 in the popular vote. He has the prospect of another +1,000,000 coming to him as the other half of California's ballots are counted.
   4760. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:15 AM (#4296572)
while the up 0.3% doesn't include California. Apples to Oranges.


That 0.3 is now 1.4 (49.9 to 48.5), with many of the left-leaning areas of California yet to be counted.
   4761. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:15 AM (#4296573)
Heller seems to have won in NV, Heitkamp looks like a recount, and Tester looks decent for his lead.

So, +1.5 for Dems in the Senate.
   4762. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:16 AM (#4296574)
Nevada Senate being called for Dean Heller (R).
   4763. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:16 AM (#4296575)
Percentage of the Hispanic vote:
Bush 40%
McCain 31%
Romney 21% (provisional)


Hello, future!
   4764. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:18 AM (#4296576)
Those professors in Colorado are looking pretty smart right now, eh?
   4765. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:20 AM (#4296577)
And Obama has just hit 50% (rounded to a tenth of a percent) in the national popular vote -- and not just in the two-man computation -- which to me is significant.
   4766. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:20 AM (#4296578)
mourdock losing is one seat that used to be solid red now beautiful blue
   4767. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:20 AM (#4296579)
Another 0.7% counted in Minnesota, as Bachmann lead drops slightly, to 1,480.

Eternal copyright's best friend Mary Bono up in California by 250 votes, with a third of the ballots counted.
   4768. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:22 AM (#4296580)
but yeah. a probable dem majority in the senate for the next few elections (tough holds in 2014, great chances in 2016)

This is very optimistic. Susan Collins is the only GOP senator who looks remotely vulnerable in 2014, while the Dems will have at least four or five senators trying to defend seats in GOP strongholds.

***
Yeah, their in great shape. Couldn't beat a black man coming off a four year recession and a major foreign policy #### up. Great shape indeed. They are getting crushed in cities (which are only going to become more prevalent), crushed with minorities (becoming less minor every day), crushed with the youth vote (they'll turn some of them, but it's an uphill battle), and losing women (more and more a stronger force in this society). They need to rethink everything. Maybe adopt a social policy or two that isn't based on the Old Testament.

I didn't say "great shape," I said "better shape." In 2008, the GOP lost the White House, became a smaller minority in the House, and watched the Dems achieve a near-filibuster-proof Senate (which became a filibuster-proof Senate a few months later). Today's GOP faces challenges, but it's in much better shape than it was in 2008.
   4769. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:25 AM (#4296581)
2014 will be hard for the Dems in the Senate, but if they need to win 4 or 5 seats, that's hard to do. And frankly, your oracular powers look dingy at the moment.
   4770. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:27 AM (#4296582)
I mean, I appreciate you're talking your book, Joe, and you're spinning as hard as you can, but seriously. We can just look back through literally hundreds of posts where you were wrong within the past month.

Meanwhile, Silver was 50 for 50. But I understand why you don't trust him. He makes you look like the snake oil salesman you are.
   4771. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:29 AM (#4296583)
Gonf, Mary Bono is terrible for the internet and IP. Copyright and IP could kill biotech, media, and software if we are not careful. I hate those - literally - Mickey Mouse laws, he's dead, it's fair use.
   4772. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:38 AM (#4296584)
2014 will be hard for the Dems in the Senate, but if they need to win 4 or 5 seats, that's hard to do. And frankly, your oracular powers look dingy at the moment.
I mean, I appreciate you're talking your book, Joe, and you're spinning as hard as you can, but seriously. We can just look back through literally hundreds of posts where you were wrong within the past month.

Yes, as opposed to the brilliant political analysis you've bestowed on us here. LOL.

I was certainly wrong about Romney winning. I'm not wrong to say the Senate Dems face a much tougher task in 2014 than Senate Republicans, unless there's a sea change in the politics of states like Alaska, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Montana between now and 2014.

Meanwhile, Silver was 50 for 50. But I understand why you don't trust him.

Hooray. RCP was 49 for 50.

He makes you look like the snake oil salesman you are.

Ha ha. Another internet tough guy.

I underestimated Dem turnout in 2012 by ~2 points in three or four states. I'm practically Bernie Madoff.
   4773. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:39 AM (#4296585)
Heitkamp up 3k with 100% in according to NYTimes. If MT holds, Dems will have 55 senators next congress.
   4774. OCF Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:40 AM (#4296586)
In my congressional race (new district, open seat): Lowenthal (D) is ahead of DeLong (R) about 53-47 with 75% of the vote counted. But nearly all of the Orange County part of the district is already counted, so most of the remaining votes are in the LA county (meaning, primarily, Long Beach) part of the district. That's the part of the district that is better for Lowenthal - so it's looking likely that it will be a D district. I'll be glad not to be represented by that knucklehead Rorabacher any more, and I'll be glad that the campaigns and their PACs will stop calling me and sending me stuff. (The slimiest mailers came from some kind of outside organization on behalf of DeLong.)
   4775. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:42 AM (#4296587)
Interesting--Chris Hayes is claiming that the Tea Party cost the GOP five Senate seats. Good news if it causes the Republicans to calm the #### down, but is he right? Hayes also claims we're seeing a notably different electorate showing up every four years, for the presidential election years, than we are for the midterms. Someone upthread mentioned carrying Obama's ground game into the Democratic party's future. I'd love to see him call on his GOTV people for the 2014 midterms.


Well, not 5 this cycle alone -- but in the last two cycles (which, incidentally, would mean a GOP Senate today). O'Donnell and Angle cost them DE and NV in 2010 - seats they would have certainly won. Akin and Mourdock cost them IN and MO this cycle. I'd have to think of the 5th.

Yeah, their in great shape. Couldn't beat a black man coming off a four year recession and a major foreign policy #### up. Great shape indeed. They are getting crushed in cities (which are only going to become more prevalent), crushed with minorities (becoming less minor every day), crushed with the youth vote (they'll turn some of them, but it's an uphill battle), and losing women (more and more a stronger force in this society). They need to rethink everything. Maybe adopt a social policy or two that isn't based on the Old Testament.


I didn't say "great shape," I said "better shape." In 2008, the GOP lost the White House, became a smaller minority in the House, and watched the Dems achieve a near-filibuster-proof Senate (which became a filibuster-proof Senate a few months later). Today's GOP faces challenges, but it's in much better shape than it was in 2008.


The demographics, though - are NOT getting friendlier.

Latino vote crept up another two points as a component of the electorate, while the GOP has seen its numbers among Latinos shrink from ~40% in Bush in 2004, to ~32% for McCain, to a cratering ~20% for Romney.

AA numbers continue to rise - they actually came out in bigger numbers in some states than in 2008.

I suppose the GOP is in 'better shape' in that Sarah Palin is viewed (with fear, by some in the GOP) as the 'future' of the party... but those Demographics are not getting any friendlier any time soon.

Mike Huckabee said it tonight, Marco Rubio may try to say it, Jeb Bush may try to say it... but I see ZERO inclination by the GOP base to let the GOP do anything about it.

Add to that - the youth vote actually seems to be stabilizing as a component.

The GOP has some significant issues - immigration, gay rights, probably some women's issues (and not just abortion... regardless of whether one sees LLA as just a stupid tort law, it hurts the GOP with women) - where they literally have no choice but to moderate their position.

The 2016 will have even more Latinos -- and even fewer older white voters, yet again... just as it has consistently for nearly a generation.

   4776. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:42 AM (#4296588)
To all the folks crowing about the death of the current Republican Party:

Not to put too fine a point on it, but you're dead ####### wrong. This is the current national pop vote:

57,198,856 - 55,434,408

When a party is in disarray, it looks more like this:

54,455,472 - 37,577,352

Gay rights don't move votes, except for the gays (who aren't voting red if Ryan campaigned shirtless) and the Bible thumpers (who will vote Republican over those Godless Animals no matter what the GOP does with the gays). Abortion isn't a winning or losing issue b/c the country is split down the middle.

All that's needed is a couple of points nationally and 4-5 points in the key states. Stop spewing the anti-immigrant ugliness and they're there.
   4777. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:43 AM (#4296589)

I didn't say "great shape," I said "better shape." In 2008, the GOP lost the White House, became a smaller minority in the House, and watched the Dems achieve a near-filibuster-proof Senate (which became a filibuster-proof Senate a few months later). Today's GOP faces challenges, but it's in much better shape than it was in 2008.


Sure they got crushed in 2008 but that was inevitable with the Bush stench culminating in a collapsed economy. There was no way they were getting out of that one alive. They should have been able to make some hey this year as the opposition party in a down economy. The fact that they weren't able to make any progress should clue them in to how toxic their message is to much of America.
   4778. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:43 AM (#4296590)
If you can read, you malaflicted muppet, I said Dems would have a hard election in the senate in 2014, and an excellent map in 2016. But I don't want to make a bet on Republicans winning 5 seats 2 years from now. Because frankly, Joe, your prognostications are ####, and you're an easy mark.
   4779. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:44 AM (#4296591)
BTW -

The sample question -- should we use party ID or less transient classifiers like age, sex, and race -- ought to at least be settled.

   4780. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:44 AM (#4296592)
BREAKING NEWS: When a party kicks butt in an election cycle, their position becomes tougher to improve upon six years later. (Even though the Dems just did.)

That's why this was such a terrible, terrible night for the Democrats-- because it only sets them up for a bigger fall in 2018.
   4781. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:44 AM (#4296593)
Hey, 'zop! ELIZABETH WARREN!

She's a nice lady. And a Senator.

I don't think anyone hear thinks this victory is either crushing or a clear sign Republicans won't compete in the future. Hell, given 2nd term results for most presidents Dems are likely to lose seats in the midterm. But seriously. It's going to take more than tossing the nativism to win. And I'm not sure the Republican party is even capable of doing that.
   4782. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:46 AM (#4296594)
The fact that they weren't able to make any progress should clue them in to how toxic their message is to much of America.


It is toxic, but that's fine. You lose 95% of the blacks and 95% of the gays, that's OK as long as you bring in 60% of the white men and 30% of the hispanics. 45% of the country can hate Republican guts with the fire of Armenians hating the Kurds, but all that matters is bringing in 5% to augment the base. Incremental changes.
   4783. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:47 AM (#4296595)
She's a nice lady. And a Senator.


She's scum of the Earth, someone who lied on their "resume" to try to get ahead. And Strom Thurmond was a senator too, which says everything that needs to be said about that.
   4784. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:47 AM (#4296596)

All that's needed is a couple of points nationally and 4-5 points in the key states. Stop spewing the anti-immigrant ugliness and they're there.


But can they do that?

Beyond Rubio - exactly who in power in the GOP will get on board with a muscular immigration reform bill that, yes, is going to include some manner of amnesty/paths to citizenship?

Jeb Bush holds no office. Mike Huckabee holds no office. I suppose Rick Perry does, but he's done as a national force (if he ever was one).

I don't see DeMint, Boehner, McConnell, Ryan, or any of the party leaders getting behind any softening...

   4785. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:48 AM (#4296597)
Jack @4740: Akin, Mourdock, Christine O'Donnel, Joe Miller in Alaska (though that's still Republican), and that "chickens for check ups" nutter who lost Harry Reid.
Yes. Nailed it.

If Romney could have avoided the social platform albatross that the party hung around his neck and actually been able to make the election a referendum on the economy then he would have won.
True, but I think it might be more of a zero-sum game than you're suggesting. It would have taken very little movement for Romney to have lost the evangelicals' enthusiasm, for example. I don't think he had any room at all to move on gay rights, and anything less than a strong, unwavering prolife position would have been unthinkable. My guess is he would have lost more by moving to the center on social issues than he would have gained, but I could be missing something. Where do you think he had some wiggle room?


...and a major foreign policy #### up
What did I miss?


Joe has a book he's flogging?
   4786. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:49 AM (#4296598)
Yes, because someone who's worked their whole life trying to help the disenfranchised and who didn't actually say #### about their heritage when getting hired is the same as someone who raped an underage black girl and then supported segregation forever. Your morals are ######.
   4787. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:51 AM (#4296599)
Joe has a book he's flogging?

Book as in stance that he can't deviate from. He's boring, but he's consistent.

I'm off to bed. BTW 'zop, I've got native heritage good enough for the dawes act, and your racist ass can ####### suck it.
   4788. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:51 AM (#4296600)


It is toxic, but that's fine. You lose 95% of the blacks and 95% of the gays, that's OK as long as you bring in 60% of the white men and 30% of the hispanics. 45% of the country can hate Republican guts with the fire of Armenians hating the Kurds, but all that matters is bringing in 5% to augment the base. Incremental changes.


not gonna cut it when the share of the total electorate for AA/Latino keeps rising, while the share of white men keeps sliding.

It's the one consistent trend that has held true for a good 20+ years now.

Some Republicans - Lindsay Graham put it perfectly "we're running out of old white men" - get it, but they're still getting branded as apostates... I mean... anyone want to give me even money odds on Lindsay Graham surviving another primary?

30% of the Latino vote might - but probably not - have been enough to make this longer night... but it won't be in 2016.

Karl Rove is one of the more overrated operatives on the planet - but that is one thing he got right.
   4789. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:52 AM (#4296601)
It's going to take more than tossing the nativism to win.


Why? I mean, not to get all Nate Silver about it, but the stats don't show some mandate against Republican issues. The only area where there's material erosion is among the Hispanics. Fix that and we're celebrating President Romney.

The curious aspect of post-mortems here is that the sources of Dem strength are in many ways, just slightly different versions of what the Teapers stand for. Strip away the ugly racism (yes, other than that), and the Teapers core issue is railing against the concentration of power and wealth in an upper / establishment class. Obama's ability to frame himself as the man of the middle class against Romney, man for the rich, was a total winner - the best possible narrative for the election. Paid off down ballot, too. You'd think the Republicans would get the message and cut the tax cut #### out.

Pet urban liberal issues like gay rights and womens rights are irrelevant on the national stage, except insofar as they motivate the base on both sides.
   4790. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:54 AM (#4296603)
Yes, because someone who's worked their whole life trying to help the disenfranchised and who didn't actually say #### about their heritage when getting hired


Elizabeth Warren worked her whole life trying to help one person and one person only: Elizabeth Warren. And if you don't think Warren's asserted native heritage didn't play a role in her advancement in academia, then you've never spent time in academia. No one admits that trailing spouses get boosts because they're trailing spouses, either, and yet, somehow they get hired all the damn time.
   4791. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:56 AM (#4296604)
45% of the country can hate Republican guts with the fire of Armenians hating the Kurds, but all that matters is bringing in 5% to augment the base.

That base gets smaller every day. Punting so many groups isn't a winning strategy long term.
   4792. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:56 AM (#4296605)
I think the Dems might actually make it to +12 or so in the House... I'm going to bed and too tired to recheck, but looks like they're pulling some upsets out west - including a couple of relative shockers in CA.

What's more, it looks like they actually might keep the MT Gov's mansion and Jay Inslee looks to be cruising in WA.

This is looking up and down like a much, much better night than expected...
   4793. RollingWave Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:58 AM (#4296606)
The comments in Unskewed Polls are rather amusing..
   4794. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:00 AM (#4296607)
Yes, as opposed to the brilliant political analysis you've bestowed on us here. LOL.
Says the guy who explained in detail how Romney would get 300+ electoral votes.

Hooray. RCP was 49 for 50.
How'd Unskewed Polls do?
   4795. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:02 AM (#4296608)
That base gets smaller every day. Punting so many groups isn't a winning strategy long term.


Cuts both ways. Republican support among white men is increasing fast (though not as fast as it's dropping among hispanics) and its stable among white women. Dems are largely punting white men, and their support among whites as a whole is weakening, not growing. Even as whites become a plurality, not a majority, you still can't afford to be losing them by too much and hope to make it up with the blacks and hispanics.
   4796. BrianBrianson Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:03 AM (#4296609)
Strip away the ugly racism (yes, other than that),


Strip away that, and the clothes have no emporer.
   4797. Jim Wisinski Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:03 AM (#4296610)
True, but I think it might be more of a zero-sum game than you're suggesting. It would have taken very little movement for Romney to have lost the evangelicals' enthusiasm, for example. I don't think he had any room at all to move on gay rights, and anything less than a strong, unwavering prolife position would have been unthinkable. My guess is he would have lost more by moving to the center on social issues than he would have gained, but I could be missing something. Where do you think he had some wiggle room?


I think there's wiggle room because even with moderating the platform's social position to the center the Democratic Party is still going to be far, far worse in the eyes of evangelicals on the issues they care about. Maybe enthusiasm drops a bit but I think they would still have been highly motivated and very anti-Obama. It's not a matter of Romney using that wiggle room though (and to an extent I think he did), that party platform is going to be laid at his feet whether he's actively advocating it or not (you can say the same about the Ryan budget plan so highly praised by the right but not greatly supported by Romney in the general election campaign, he has to answer for it anyway). It's the party as a whole that has to moderate those policies or else even the most moderate candidate will suffer from them.
   4798. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:08 AM (#4296611)
If you can read, you malaflicted muppet, I said Dems would have a hard election in the senate in 2014, and an excellent map in 2016. But I don't want to make a bet on Republicans winning 5 seats 2 years from now. Because frankly, Joe, your prognostications are ####, and you're an easy mark.

Settle down, tough guy. Nobody likes a sore winner.
   4799. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:10 AM (#4296612)
Settle down, tough guy. Nobody likes a sore winner.


Joe, being a sore winner would be to complain that your concession is concilliatory enough. They're just saying you're an idiot. That's entirely different.
   4800. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:12 AM (#4296613)
Sure they got crushed in 2008 but that was inevitable with the Bush stench culminating in a collapsed economy.
Even so, they didn't lose by all that much. After eight years of horror, I would have thought losing 57-43 would have been fortunate.

Obama's ability to frame himself as the man of the middle class against Romney, man for the rich, was a total winner - the best possible narrative for the election. Paid off down ballot, too. You'd think the Republicans would get the message and cut the tax cut #### out.
The problem is, the party's biggest financial backers are adamant about tax cuts; as is Grover Norquist, who'll take his ball and go home if he doesn't get what he wants. The party is wedded to the insanity of tax cuts despite this deficit in the same way that fear of minorities fuels a xenophobic immigration policy. There's no way to surgically remove that kind of position without excising half the Tea Party along with it.

Is it fair to say Romney's not just done, but done and gone? I don't think he has any political capital to speak of. He's tolerated, not loved, in the power centers of the GOP; he has no GOTV organziation to bequeath, as that was all the state Repubs work... he doesn't even have a forum to speak from, the way McCain did. He inspires no one, and I think it's going to be clear in the next months exactly how empty a suit he is. I can't imagine his endorsement meaning anything to anyone.
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