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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   4901. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4296749)
kiko

you guys focus on the tea party is interesting.


I don't actually think it'll happen (I'm also not really a "you guys"; I voted for Gary Johnson for President and a Republican for the House (who got 17% of the vote)). I'm saying, if I'm surprised, it's because the Republican leadership didn't get the guy they want. But I expect the Republican leadership to get the guy they want; and I think that'll be somebody being talked about now (Rubio, Bush, Ryan, maybe Christie).
   4902. spike Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4296750)
Republican support among white men is increasing fast

They are at over 60 percent now - and that's with the other team running out a black guy. The last time it got this high, it produced the Bush landslide against Dukakis (if I remember Greenfields remark last night correctly), but barely carries NC now. They will have to make significant changes going forward.
   4903. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4296751)
Yes, there is something about this, but the man did get 56 million plus votes. Speaks to the power of our mental insistence on reducing things to a elementary dualism--in this case, that winner takes all. Somehow, the guy who only gets 56 million plus votes becomes a nothing loser.

True, but you could put Nancy Grace on the ballot for either party and she starts with with 50 million votes.
   4904. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4296752)
For the people wondering what the Fox News coverage was like (thread discussed it at length), here's a short synopsis by Slate.

I had a Dem politico tell me that Schweitzer was his pick for '16 before Obama won in '08 - he hasn't changed his mind.
   4905. BrianBrianson Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4296753)
corporate tax rates (go away)


You can win a lot of the "Reality has a liberal bias" crowd over if you combine low corporate tax rates with high personal tax rates for the wealthy. But essentially none of the idealists, I think (but it might allow one to collect substantial corporate donations?)
   4906. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4296754)
Social Security should be expanded. First, do away with auxiliary benefits. Likewise, expand Medicare. That should have been how we went with universal health care, if we're not going to go with a single payer. How to pay for this? This is the second part: remove that cap on FICA/SE taxable earnings and increase the cut that goes toward Medicare.
   4907. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4296755)
An interesting result last night...

After failing multiple times, it appears that Puerto Rico for the first time passed a referendum supporting statehood. The initiative has always failed previously - I believe this is the first time it passed.

The ballot question was a two parter -- "change the relationship" with the US as Q1, with 3 choices as Q2 (statehood, sovereign free association, and outright independence). It looks like 'change' is winning by about 6-8 points, with statehood running away as the Q2 choice (independence only 4%).

Incidentally, both Obama and Romney were on record saying that they'd support the 'will of Puerto Rico' regardless of the outcome.

Statehood requires congressional approval... but this might be an interesting topic to follow in the next year or so.
   4908. spike Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4296756)
you guys focus on the tea party is interesting.

They have owned the nomination process for the GOP by and large for the last two cycles. How are they not the focus? They are the primary driver of candidate positions right now. The Democrats would be in the minority in the Senate but for this.
   4909. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:24 AM (#4296757)
i doubt my views on social security (needs to be significantly curtailed like yesterday), fracking, corporate tax rates (go away) just to name a few will win me much of a following.

Focus on the gin. Stay on message.
   4910. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4296758)
Statehood requires congressional approval... but this might be an interesting topic to follow in the next year or so.

The right, quite understandably, will never let this pass.
   4911. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4296759)
If the 2016 general election is Clinton v. Bush then I'm moving to Canada or Mexico or Timbuktu wherever the #### they're not reliving every political trauma to happen in the US between 1992 and 2008.
   4912. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4296760)
My not very bold prediction: None of these people will even be in the conversation. The nominees, both Republican and Democratic, will be people almost no on is talking about right now.


For the Dems, I bet Schweitzer runs. He's getting term limited out of his governor's chair, and he seems like he has what it takes to do well on the national stage.

Deval Patrick would make a certain amount of sense, too, since he's said that he won't re-up for governor again in 2014.
   4913. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:29 AM (#4296762)
Wall Street appears not to be happy this morning.
   4914. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4296764)
if she has not already done so i forecast gov palin pointing to the stock market today as 'business rejecting the president's second term' or something similar

it's disappointing that this person continues to have the forum she does. i still cannot fathom what sen mccain was thinking.

just a horrendous choice
   4915. tshipman Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4296765)
I think this is probably true of the Democrats - they like young people who kind of come out of nowhere (Carter, Clinton, Obama). Republicans, though, very much like the orderly-succession, pay-your-dues model of nominating guys (Dole, McCain, Romney). I'd be at least a bit surprised if the Republicans nominate somebody who hasn't been named in this thread.


One interesting thing for me this election is figuring out who is "next in line" for the R's.

Is it Paul Ryan? Is it Christie? Traditionally, it's been the runner up in the nomination process, but no one seems to be treating Santorum like he's next in line. This is a weird cycle for Republicans.
   4916. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4296767)
Wall Street appears not to be happy this morning.

Buy the rumor, sell the news.
   4917. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4296768)
For the people wondering what the Fox News coverage was like (thread discussed it at length), here's a short synopsis by Slate.

Here was my bleary-eyed FB post after midnight:
I've been watching Fox News a bit tonight. They sure are cheerleaders, except for Juan Williams and the blonde woman panelist (whose name I don't know), who seem to be pretty objective.

Karl Rove kept insisting that he had some secret key to how Ohio would turn around.

Poor Sarah Palin was almost in tears when talking to Greta van Susterneneneren about how the Constitution should guide Obama to compromise with the House.
   4918. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4296770)
Republican support among white men is increasing fast

They are at over 60 percent now - and that's with the other team running out a black guy. The last time it got this high, it produced the Bush landslide against Dukakis (if I remember Greenfields remark last night correctly), but barely carries NC now. They will have to make significant changes going forward.


Look, I'm not going to claim the GOP is racist riddled at all... but I do think there's a difference between the GOP's struggles with minorities and Democratic struggles with 'white men'.

To wit - I'm a straight, white male that has been continuously employed in a private sector, non-union job for nearly 20 years now. Yes, I'm partisan and ideological - but I just really don't see what the Democratic party has ever done or positions its taken that should 'offend' me. I can't think of a Democratic politician or officeholder of any real note that has said anything that should offend me as a SWM.

If I were AA, Latino, etc - I just don't think that same equation holds. Obviously, there are Latino and AA Republicans - but I think (in fact, I know, based on knowing a few of them and discussing it) they'll privately admit that yes, there's a lot of garbage you have to grit your teeth and ignore to vote your philosophy.

Most people simple don't get into politics enough to bother wading through that.

That's the GOP's problem - I don't see any obstacles to Democrats picking up further chunks of the white male vote... at least not structurally. I do think there are obstacles for the GOP on the flipside.
   4919. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4296771)
The economy made a small difference with winning over Hispanic voters, but the gap in the race is simple. It's the racism, stupid.


This can't be repeated enough. The next phase of denialism within the GOP seems to be lining up behind "the Latinos will vote Republican once they realize you want to eat their babies; you can't buy them off forever." This will be couched in terms like "Nats Homer's" bit about "second and third generation immigrants." It is incumbent for the party in denial to establish that the Latino vote will not behave, historically, like the African American vote and be sticky to "whatever party is representing the counterweight to the old Confederacy." They need Latinos to be more like Irish and Italian immigration waves, breaking and assimilating within a couple of generations. This might happen, if one of the major parties doesn't spend a massive amount of energy alienating them via poorly concealed racial animus. Unfortunately for the GOP's plan, the GOP seems pretty much destined to do exactly that, and if the do, the Latino vote will be as sticky to the Dems as the African American vote is today.
   4920. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4296772)
Running for president is really hard. The credible new candidates on the Dem side are building their machines and calling markers and such and will be for the next few years if they are serious. There is too much of the iceberg below the waterline for me to know who will show up. Schweitzer is on the list as are Cuomo, Warren, Klobuchar and I am sure many more.

Regarding the old guard it is all gut instinct that tells me no on HRC (And I have a very low confidencein my gut). I think Biden is a near mortal lock to run unless health issues stop him. I think he has been a fine VP, but who cares it is VP.

On the GOP side I think folks that think it is a name right now are right. When was the last time a GOP presidential nominee went to an unknown from four years prior? My guess is it will be some white dude with a bunch of money in the bank, but that is profiling on my part (and fits all parties for most of the history of the US).

Minor edits.
   4921. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:39 AM (#4296774)
The nominees, both Republican and Democratic, will be people almost no on is talking about right now.


Amy Klobuchar
Deval Patrick
Andrew Cuomo
Charlie Crist
Tester/Schweitzer/Other Random non-coastal Westerner.

Paul Ryan
Chris Christie
Marco Rubio
Nathan Deal
Kay Bailey Hutchinson.
   4922. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:39 AM (#4296775)
One interesting thing for me this election is figuring out who is "next in line" for the R's.

Is it Paul Ryan? Is it Christie? Traditionally, it's been the runner up in the nomination process, but no one seems to be treating Santorum like he's next in line. This is a weird cycle for Republicans.


My early money would be on Rubio... Personally, I think I see him in the same way that a lot of highly partisan Republicans see Obama... but, I suppose, maybe that's a good thing for the GOP.
   4923. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4296776)
I do think there are obstacles for the GOP on the flipside.

Right.

I know a lot of Republicans. Grew up with them, love many of them. While they genuinely don't get WHY they're offending minorities and the ones I know are NOT racists or bigots, the party and the message it puts out clearly is offending and alienating minorities. I'm not really arguing they need to dramatically change their principles. But they do need some change and they need to figure out how to articulate their principles without insulting and offending. That can be difficult, but it is, in essence, politics.

It seems to me that the Rs are overrun with impolitic leaders. The message is far more harsh than most of the people supporting the party actually believe.*




* Yes, there are racists and bigots in the party. But the vast majority of folks who voted Republican yesterday aren't.
   4924. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:42 AM (#4296778)
Hillary will be 69 y.o. in 2016. Only Reagan has been elected at that age.
James Buchanan was 65; Zachary Taylor and Bush I were both 64.


Women age slower and get stupid slower, medicine and health is much improved. I have a hard time thinking of this as an issue, YMMV.
   4925. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4296779)
That's the GOP's problem - I don't see any obstacles to Democrats picking up further chunks of the white male vote... at least not structurally. I do think there are obstacles for the GOP on the flipside.


QFT. zonk in 2016.
   4926. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4296780)
Talking to my mom this morning, she brought up Kirsten Gillibrand. She's hearing that Gillibrand is aggressively networking building a structure for some kind of national run if not in 2016 then in 2020. It's a name out of leftfield, but she's very capable and I wouldn't underestimate her.
   4927. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4296781)
regarding rove:

the governor was not interested in conceding even though he understood the math. karl rove had hitched his wagon to the governor and helped convince folks with dollars and influence that the governor's campaign approach would work. when the governor wasn't ready to concede karl had to step in and provide cover that would somehow justify the delay to what many said was inevitable.

that was it. two guys joined at the hip and one doing what he could while mrs. romney worked the governor to help him get where he needed to be

   4928. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4296782)
Women age slower and get stupid slower, medicine and health is much improved. I have a hard time thinking of this as an issue, YMMV.

I think it is an issue. People slow down - it's completely natural. Look at the toll the presidency exerts on younger folks. I think she may well be fine at 69 but I wouldn't bank on her being fine at 72, or certainly at 77. (She might be - not trying to knock old folks, but I'd prefer someone younger).
   4929. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4296783)
My first thought for the R's in '16 was a Ryan/KBH ticket - but that's a ways off.

I'd like to know who (if anyone) Obama wants to see elevated to front-runner status on his side - that makes a difference.

***

HW on Rove: Hmmm. Okay, I can buy that.
   4930. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4296784)
it's disappointing that this person continues to have the forum she does. i still cannot fathom what sen mccain was thinking.


I was in a hotel in Jersey Monday night. When the Saints went up 21-3 I started flipping the channels and landed on HBO, about a quarter of the way into "Game Change." You should watch it. It's entertaining and informative (even if I suspect Steve Schmidt isn't nearly as likable as the character he writes for himself.) It ends with the McCain-Palin campaign getting hotter and hotter, stirring up the crackpots in the base in an attempt to bail out a losing effort, then closes with the fight between Schmidt and Palin about her desire to give a VP concession speech.

The final scene is an ominous panning of the soon-to-become-Tea Party crowd in Arizona chanting "Sarah, Sarah, Sarah" after McCain concedes. The message is clearly "and now this is the face of the party."

I was struck by that, in that I recalled quite clearly the assumption that coming out of 2008 Sarah Palin was an unstoppable force who was so clearly the front-runner for the GOP nomination in 2012 that other options should just get in line to be her veep already.

Today she's a failed reality TV star coasting in checks from the fetid swamps of Fox News commentariat gigs.

Keep this in mind as you guys project the candidates for 2016.
   4931. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4296785)
* Yes, there are racists and bigots in the party. But the vast majority of folks who voted Republican yesterday aren't.


And agin QFT. I really don't think a majority, a plurality, or even all that many of voters for Romney are racist. I do think a few percent voted for the R instead of the D based on bias.

I think the primary voters on the GOP side have a bit more influence, but not a plurality there either.
   4932. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4296786)
* Yes, there are racists and bigots in the party. But the vast majority of folks who voted Republican yesterday aren't.


I recall a recent poll claiming that half of registered Republicans surveyed doubted that Obama was born in America.
   4933. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4296787)
4927, Harvey, I still think it was fine to wait to concede. OH was close, neither VA nor FL had yet been called. Yeah, you're probably going to lose but there is no hurry. The idea that he should have conceded earlier is completely driven by people on the east coast wanting to go to bed. I don't have any problem with someone who has worked that hard for so long to wait a bit to give it up.

I missed Rove's initial statement about having secret knowledge - plainly ridiculous - but the OH call was too early, even if it did prove accurate. We as a nation will survive a concession after midnight.
   4934. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4296788)
I have to imagine Karl Rove is fending off a lot of pissed off calls from billionaires today...

I mean - forget Romney - Crossroads raised and dumped an absolute ton of money into Senate races and what did it get them? It looks like about $300 million essentially got them the NE-SEN seat (that they win in a walk anyway) and a hold in AZ-SEN, and probably another hold in NV-SEN.

I still have issues with CU - and I'll echo some folks from a few pages back that I have moderately changed views on CU as it relates to the free speech issue - but I think that might be the best news of this entire cycle... unless you want to say that SuperPACs formed a bulwark from this being a GOP wipeout in the House/Senate (and I don't buy that) -- the money effect seemed to be especially muted this cycle.
   4935. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4296789)
completely driven by people on the east coast wanting to go to bed.

True. I am exhausted this morning.
   4936. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4296790)
The smartest move the GOP could make in the next six months is to completely cave on immigration, get it out of the national debate ASAP.
   4937. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4296791)

The right, quite understandably, will never let this pass.


Voting down Puerto Rican statehood would not be a good way to start mending bridges with the Latino community. Then again, they may be that stupid.
   4938. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4296792)
when the governor wasn't ready to concede karl had to step in and provide cover that would somehow justify the delay to what many said was inevitable.


I heard Romney asked all of his staffers to leave the room, and then started screaming in German.
   4939. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4296793)
So the last big issue of politics 2012 is the "Fiscal Cliff". I have no idea if there will be (A) a grand bargain, (B) a short term fix, or (C) the whole thing happens and then negotiations begin again in 2013.

I prefer (C), then (B) and then (A), but Dems seem to really like grand bargains so (A) might be where the smart money goes.
   4940. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4296794)
I think the primary voters on the GOP side have a bit more influence, but not a plurality there either.

Right. I think a good politician should be able to craft a message that appeals to the base without scaring people in the middle. Yes, it will be hard. But that is what politicians are supposed to do - appeal to diverse elements, bring folks together. Any bum can get up and stir up emotions and lose.
   4941. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4296795)
that was it. two guys joined at the hip and one doing what he could while mrs. romney worked the governor to help him get where he needed to be


Caught the early flight from Boston, eh?
   4942. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4296796)
Not sure why you think Ohio was called too early, bunyon.

Larry M - Don't think capitulation is an option. Bend, yes.

Keep this in mind as you guys project the candidates for 2016.

QFT.
   4943. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4296797)
joba

i have seen that youtube. when favre signed witht he vikings that version went to all packer fans. it's tremendous
   4944. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4296798)
No one really cares about the "collective idea of america". They care about winning elections. The point is that a winning Republican coalition is out there with very small tweaks to the Republican platform.

It's pretty simple: The GOP should stop making coded appeals to bigots, and stop pretending that they aren't. This isn't 1972, and the changing demographics are going to just keep grinding them down if they keep pandering to the worst elements in the country.

EDIT: coke to Matt in 4838, and many others after that.
   4945. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4296800)
I would love to see statehood for DC* and Puerto Rico, but don't think either will happen until around 2022 or so (post 2020 redistricting - since 2020 is a presidential election it will be much more favorable to Dems than the 2010 redistricting was, above and beyond demographic changes).

* My understanding is you have to keep a DC, probably just the Monuments area, White House and Capitol, for Constitutional reasons, but could carve out the rest as a state. But I am not a lawyer so no idea if this is true.
   4946. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4296802)
Not sure why you think Ohio was called too early, bunyon.


Yeah, Florida was obvious before Ohio.
   4947. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4296803)
New Hampshire goes all in on "the end of men."

Senate: Kelly Ayotte, Jean Shaheen
House: Ann Kuster, Carol Shea-Porter
Gov - Maggie Hassan
   4948. BrianBrianson Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4296804)
Yes, there are racists and bigots in the party. But the vast majority of folks who voted Republican yesterday aren't.


The binary racist/not racist use here obscures far more truth than it reveals. Most of the people who voted Republican yesterday would should a significant racial if they took the test here: https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/demo/ for instance. Most of the people who voted Democratic would too; the difference is that most of Democrats make half-assed attempts to acknowledge that's a bad thing, and they should work on it. Not so much for the Republicans.
   4949. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4296805)

"the blonde woman panelist [on Fox] (whose name I don't know), who seem to be pretty objective."

That would be Kirsten Powers, who is a Democrat. And she is pretty objective; refreshing to see anyone from either party who will veer from the talking points faxed out each morning.
   4950. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4296806)
Talking to my mom this morning, she brought up Kirsten Gillibrand. She's hearing that Gillibrand is aggressively networking building a structure for some kind of national run if not in 2016 then in 2020. It's a name out of leftfield, but she's very capable and I wouldn't underestimate her.

518 upstate represent!
   4951. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4296807)
"change the relationship" with the US


Isn't this code for "We should start seeing other people"?
   4952. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4296808)
Put me in the camp that is OK with when the states were called, when Romney conceded, and the concession speech. And I still want to know who that other blond was on fox last night (not Megyn, the other one, she was sane and wearing green I think).

EDIT: Thanks Howie. That is her. Fetching, smart and a Democrat for the trifecta.
   4953. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:59 AM (#4296809)
Puerto Rican statehood would be very expensive and cause a decent number of complications. It would also likely alienate the #### out of the R base.
They _can't_ support it anytime soon.
   4954. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:59 AM (#4296810)
Dammit now I've got Cult of Personality stuck in my head again.

You say this like it's a bad thing. It had been a while since I've listened to that song and you reminded me of it.
   4955. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 11:59 AM (#4296812)
i have seen that youtube. when favre signed witht he vikings that version went to all packer fans. it's tremendous


No but I've seen many other variants. I really, really dislike football. The main things I know about Favre is that he played for the Packers and he's from a city in Mississippi that is the approximate location of the last bare-knuckle heavyweight title fight in boxing history.
   4956. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4296813)
that was it. two guys joined at the hip


Correct vicinity, but "at the hip" isn't exactly where Rove & Romney were joined, I'm pretty sure.

Detectives believe orifices were involved.
   4957. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4296814)
Women age slower and get stupid slower, medicine and health is much improved.


While this is true in the aggregate, it is not true in the specific. You can't assume Hillary Clinton will be whip smart into her 80s just because she's a woman. Find out how her mother and aunts fared and get back to me.
   4958. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4296815)
Since I was pretty much glued to PBS from start to finish and left the room when Margaret Warner was interviewing various Republican hacks, I hadn't noticed the makeup of the crowd at Romney HQ last night. But from what Dana Milbank describes, it could easily serve as a metaphor for the entire Romney campaign:

At Romney headquarters, the defeat of the 1 percent

BOSTON

It was a victory party fit for the 1 percent.

Over in Chicago, the Obama campaign had invited 10,000 to fill the floor of the McCormick Place convention center. But here in Boston, Mitt Romney favored a more genteel soiree for an exclusive crowd.

Romney’s election-night event was in a ballroom at the Boston Exhibition and Convention Center that could accommodate a few hundred. Most men wore jacket and tie; women donned dresses and heels. Secret Service agents blocked reporters from mixing with the Romney supporters as they sipped cocktails and nibbled canapes.

Outside the ballroom, waiters in black tie tended bar, and Jumbotrons showed the election results on Fox News. Downstairs, Romney’s big donors assembled in private rooms for finer fare; guards admitted only those whose credentials said “National Finance Committee.”....
   4959. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4296816)
* My understanding is you have to keep a DC, probably just the Monuments area, White House and Capitol, for Constitutional reasons, but could carve out the rest as a state. But I am not a lawyer so no idea if this is true.

Is there some reason instead of "statehood", VA and MD couldn't just annex large chunks of DC. Do we really need another state for that?


I suppose I don't think OH was literally called too early - it was pretty clear where it would end up. I'm just saying, if I'm the candidate, I don't feel obligated to concede just as soon as there is some idea of a decision. Otherwise, he should have conceded with the last group of polls that came in. I was mostly responding to the idea that Romney should have conceded "earlier". It was pretty damned early for an election as close as this one and I don't blame a campaign for moving deliberately. It isn't as if he waited until today or threatened lawsuits or something.


I admit to knowing next to nothing about Puerto Rico. Is there a reason it should be a state?
   4960. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4296817)
No statehood for Puerto Rico. This country doesn't need another food stamp state and one with borders that can't be police against illegal immigration. Unless we give up one of those states in return (say Mississippi). P.S.: I am not a crank.
   4961. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4296818)
I was mostly responding to the idea that Romney should have conceded "earlier".

I'm with you there, sure. It's his campaign, after all - not ours, not the media's...
   4962. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4296819)
* Yes, there are racists and bigots in the party. But the vast majority of folks who voted Republican yesterday aren't.


I recall a recent poll claiming that half of registered Republicans surveyed doubted that Obama was born in America.


That doesn't necessarily mean they're all racists & bigots. They could simply be idiots.
   4963. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:07 PM (#4296820)

Is there some reason instead of "statehood", VA and MD couldn't just annex large chunks of DC. Do we really need another state for that?
\

They could, but they don't want to.
   4964. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4296821)
New Hampshire goes all in on "the end of men."

Senate: Kelly Ayotte, Jean Shaheen
House: Ann Kuster, Carol Shea-Porter
Gov - Maggie Hassan


Yep, I mentioned last night that someone on Facebook said this is the first time that has happened in any state. I don't know if that's true or not.

(Worth noting that they're not all Democrats. Ayotte is Republican and from what I understand holds all the standard party views, including the ones that seem anti-woman.)
   4965. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4296822)
That doesn't necessarily mean they're all racists & bigots. They could simply be idiots.

I'm pretty firm in my belief that well over half the voters in both parties are idiots. So, I agree.
   4966. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:09 PM (#4296823)
I didn't end up voting but would have voted for Gary Johnson (the Libertarian candidate).

I see people like Andy are trying to explain the election by calling the GOP bigots and such. I think that analysis is expected, but it's far too complex and misses the mark. (And don't latinos typically vote Democrat? What chance does the GOP really have trying to win an election by turning latinos into GOP voters? It would be like trying to turn gays or blacks into GOP voters. Or, on the flip side, like Democrats trying to turn Evangelicals into Democrat voters.)

Basically, my read of the results - FWIW - is that it's somewhat hard to unseat a sitting president, and enough people felt that while the economy is still bad, it was bad when Obama inherited it, so they didn't blame him for it.

Fox News had been hammering away at the Libya/Benghazi thing, trying to make hay with it. The problem is that, no matter what the merits of the argument against Obama with respect to that (and I honestly haven't followed it enough to know), nobody was listening except Fox News viewers and Rush Limbaugh fans and the like, who were already poised to vote for Romney.

Obviously passing Obamacare didn't hurt Obama enough to lose the election.
   4967. AROM Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:13 PM (#4296825)
It's pretty simple: The GOP should stop making coded appeals to bigots, and stop pretending that they aren't.


I don't think it's possible for the GOP to open their mouths without people who hate the GOP deciphering coded bigotry in their statement.
   4968. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:13 PM (#4296826)
No statehood for Puerto Rico. This country doesn't need another food stamp state and one with borders that can't be police against illegal immigration. Unless we give up one of those states in return (say Mississippi). P.S.: I am not a crank.


This made me laugh. Thanks.

DC residents want to be a separate state and not folded into Maryland or Virginia as far as I know, and that is good enough for me (OK I admti to my partisan bias also would love to see it, because it would be a mortal lock Democratic state).

Puerto Rico I also favor because I believe in self determination and if they want to be a state and are already citizens (they are) then they should be a state. I have no idea where they would fall in the spectrum. Likely Dem I guess based on racial profiling, but very possibly not because of the multifaceted cultural issues. I like diversity and the big old melting pot and so am in favor of new voices in the US. IOf course if they wated to remain as is or become an independant country I am OK with that also.
   4969. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4296827)
Derp.
   4970. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4296828)
I recall a recent poll claiming that half of registered Republicans surveyed doubted that Obama was born in America.

That doesn't necessarily mean they're all racists & bigots. They could simply be idiots.


I cheerfully concede the point. Somehow I sometimes manage to forget that we're talking about the Party of Creationists here.
   4971. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:17 PM (#4296829)
I see people like Andy are trying to explain the election by calling the GOP bigots and such. I think that analysis is expected, but it's far too complex and misses the mark. (And don't latinos typically vote Democrat? What chance does the GOP really have trying to win an election by turning latinos into GOP voters? It would be like trying to turn gays or blacks into GOP voters. Or, on the flip side, like Democrats trying to turn Evangelicals into Democrat voters.)


Ray, you do realize that throwing all Latinos (and "blacks" and "gays") into a big pile and assuming they all must think, act and vote alike is, well, you know, sort of kind of a racist position to take, right?
   4972. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4296830)
PR would be a Dem lock.
They have no interest in being a dependent country. Simplifying: status quo or statehood (so, more $, but some loss of identity/autonomy) are the only two options that are popular.
   4973. AROM Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4296831)
Is there some reason instead of "statehood", VA and MD couldn't just annex large chunks of DC. Do we really need another state for that?

They could, but they don't want to.


DC was created out of land given by Virginia and Maryland. Congress gave back Virginia's in 1846 (what we now call Alexandria). So if there's any state annexation to be done, DC becomes part of Maryland.
   4974. hokieneer Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4296832)
The smartest move the GOP could make in the next six months is to completely cave on immigration, get it out of the national debate ASAP.


Is the national GOP immigration stance the pro-legal immigration, against illegal immigration? Is it all about "they took our jobs"? Of course I'm sure a lot of people will read that as racism or being xenophobic, but is their stance primarily an economic issue?
   4975. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4296833)
Basically, my read of the results - FWIW - is that it's somewhat hard to unseat a sitting president, and enough people felt that while the economy is still bad, it was bad when Obama inherited it, so they didn't blame him for it.

Fox News had been hammering away at the Libya/Benghazi thing, trying to make hay with it. The problem is that, no matter what the merits of the argument against Obama with respect to that (and I honestly haven't followed it enough to know), nobody was listening except Fox News viewers and Rush Limbaugh fans and the like, who were already poised to vote for Romney.


It is a new era of commity, I agree with Ray.

I don't think racism is the reason Obama won, but I do think the GOP has a long term race issue they will need to deal with. It might just go away, but I doubt it.
   4976. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:20 PM (#4296834)
If we're voting for old guys on the Democratic side, I want Jerry Brown to run. Sure, he'll be old as dirt by 2016, but that man just doesn't give a #### about paying homage to any side and will make it highly entertaining.
   4977. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4296835)
   4978. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4296836)
Puerto Rico I also favor because I believe in self determination and if they want to be a state and are already citizens (they are) then they should be a state. I have no idea where they would fall in the spectrum. Likely Dem I guess based on racial profiling, but very possibly not because of the multifaceted cultural issues. I like diversity and the big old melting pot and so am in favor of new voices in the US. IOf course if they wated to remain as is or become an independant country I am OK with that also.

All very reasonable. My thought was that they are just so different - culturally. However, I'd guess maybe not anymore so than Hawaii was. I'm just not old enough to remember it.

I do think that bringing them in will require some sort of compromise with the Rs. I don't know what it would take, but they'd have to be paid off to allow PR in. DC wouldn't really be much of a stretch as their EVs already count.
   4979. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4296837)
I want Jerry Brown to run


Governor Moonbeam! I was shocked when I found out it was him running last time and not a relative of his with the same name. The guy is like the Cher of politics.
   4980. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4296838)

Is there some reason instead of "statehood", VA and MD couldn't just annex large chunks of DC. Do we really need another state for that?

I think that would make Virginia a solidly blue state, which is probably worse for Republicans (and therefore less likely to happen) than adding DC as a new state.
   4981. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4296839)
That was a fun election night, because I expected Obama to win, didn't have anything invested in Romney winning, and found a new way to keep up with what was going on (rather than simply watching the networks, who were doing things like putting Bill O'Reilly on at 8pm to talk about BS political issues as the viewers were trying to figure out who in the hell was winning and whether any blood had been drawn yet. Bill O'Reilly cannot help tell anyone who is winning.).

So my technique was to basically sit there with my laptop with the networks in the background, and going back and forth with my Nate Silver chart, a more standard CNN chart showing what the more traditional outfits had pegged as the swing states, and the results as they were streaming in. Also keeping up with this BBTF thread, which I actually found an invaluable tool to figure out what notable things were happening in real time and a reasoned quick analysis from people. And I wasn't seeing ANYTHING breaking for Romney.

Nate was nailing every state. So while a more standard map like CNN had claimed to identify swing states, Nate's prediction chart simply didn't have some of these states as swing states, and when he did have a shade there, it was something like 75% for Obama or whatever. So there really weren't very many true swing states, certainly not as many as the networks thought.

And so the take-away lesson from the people who had it wrong was "Oh, the polls were wrong." When really Nate's model more accurately evaluated the polls. So their premise was wrong, leading to a wrong assessment of what had happened. It reminded me of things in baseball like in 2009 after ARod went crazy in the playoffs; people didn't consider that maybe their premise that he choked in the postseason was wrong; instead, they thought he had finally overcome his choking. Well, here, the networks didn't consider that maybe their assessment of which states were swing states was wrong.
   4982. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4296840)
Is the national GOP immigration stance the pro-legal immigration, against illegal immigration? Is it all about "they took our jobs"? Of course I'm sure a lot of people will read that as racism or being xenophobic, but is their stance primarily an economic issue?

They just need to get the issue off the table. If they do it early, then they have time to recover with the base but if they run the same immigration discussion in 2016 that they ran this year, they'll lose a ton of accessible votes.
   4983. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4296841)
DC wouldn't really be much of a stretch as their EVs already count.


But in the Senate and House they would get representation. Plus Congress would have less power to randomly meddle with DC then and congress generically loves that stuff. The Dems get bribed with more comrades (Commie allusion on purpose), but the GOP has no reason to go along with it.
   4984. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4296842)
I think Ray's post (4966) is more right than wrong - most of my quibbles are at the margins.
Biggest issue is with the notion that the right couldn't have, at minimum, arrested its aggressive decline in popularity with Latinos (which, no, are very much not a homogenous group - but thinking like Sam's 4971 can be extended to suggest that no level of aggregation is appropriate, which is simply not useful).
   4985. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4296844)
I see people like Andy are trying to explain the election by calling the GOP bigots and such. I think that analysis is expected, but it's far too complex and misses the mark. (And don't latinos typically vote Democrat? What chance does the GOP really have trying to win an election by turning latinos into GOP voters? It would be like trying to turn gays or blacks into GOP voters. Or, on the flip side, like Democrats trying to turn Evangelicals into Democrat voters.)

I agree that race and ethnicity are complex issues, but there's nothing particularly complex about the rhetoric of "self-deportation" and "Nobody's ever had to ask me for my birth certificate." There was nothing very complex about the fixations over Rev. Wright, "Kenya", or "not really an American", all of which have been in the air for long stretches of time over the past four years. And if the Republican base really rejected that kind of crap, do you think that their candidates would have been offering it?

And do you think that blacks and Latinos don't notice it? Here's one sliver of evidence from a WaPost article this morning:

Mayor Michael V. Coleman of Columbus, Ohio — one of the first big-city mayors to support Obama’s daring 2008 campaign,...echoing the sentiments of many blacks, said he was stung by the racially tinged attacks against the president during the campaign. On the eve of the election, Coleman presided over a voter rally at the King Arts Complex in Columbus. “Someone there said, ‘I am tired of them disrespecting my president!’ The roof almost came down.”


The instinctive reaction of many whites when they read that is to start arguing back and picking nits, but then they start scratching their heads and say that they can't figure out why more minorities won't listen to what they have to say about the economy. It might be better for everyone concerned---particularly for the Republicans---if some of these white people would just STFU and start listening to what's being noticed about them, and come to terms with America's changing demographics.
   4986. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4296845)
Nate Silver's book #2 on Amazon, jumped 800% since yesterday.
   4987. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4296846)
Ray, you do realize that throwing all Latinos (and "blacks" and "gays") into a big pile and assuming they all must think, act and vote alike is, well, you know, sort of kind of a racist position to take, right?


? What I'm saying is that, e.g., black people as a group will tend to vote heavily Democrat. Am I incorrect?
   4988. formerly dp Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4296847)
I don't think it's possible for the GOP to open their mouths without people who hate the GOP deciphering coded bigotry in their statement.


It's the same conversation over and over: if a Republican says something offensive to a Latino voter, the Republican response is to explain how the problem isn't with what they said, but how it was unfairly interpreted-- so obviously the problem lies with the person doing the interpretation, rather than with the person who uttered the initial statement. And this works if you're addressing white people who think that nonwhites should just get over race already, but it doesn't work when you're trying to convince the offended people to cast a vote for you. Interpretation (or deciphering, as you put it) is a fundamentally subjective activity-- denying someone their interpretation is denying them their subjectivity.
   4989. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4296848)
Wall St are a bunch of reactionary a-holes anyway. They should be happy that most of them still have a job after 2008.
   4990. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:32 PM (#4296849)
Governor Moonbeam! I was shocked when I found out it was him running last time and not a relative of his with the same name. The guy is like the Cher of politics.


Not sure, but I might've voted for him in the Democratic primary in Arkansas back in '92. (I know my gf at the time ran into his daughter campaigning for him.) Even then, he seemed like a figure from the semi-distant past.
   4991. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4296850)
Wall St are a bunch of reactionary a-holes anyway. They should be happy that most of them still have a job after 2008.


Newsletter? Subscribe me!
   4992. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4296851)
Ray, your take on Silver in #4981 was pretty much spot on, but as long as ratings can be driven by controversy, I doubt if pundits are ever going to be out of work.

And BTW if anyone stuck with PBS last night, he or she could have avoided all the BS spinning on the commercial networks, and gotten rather clear headed ongoing analysis from the entire PBS crew. They waited for three networks to call a state before assigning it to a candidate's column, but that slight delay didn't really matter in the long run.
   4993. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4296852)

I was in a hotel in Jersey Monday night. When the Saints went up 21-3 I started flipping the channels and landed on HBO, about a quarter of the way into "Game Change." You should watch it. It's entertaining and informative (even if I suspect Steve Schmidt isn't nearly as likable as the character he writes for himself.) It ends with the McCain-Palin campaign getting hotter and hotter, stirring up the crackpots in the base in an attempt to bail out a losing effort, then closes with the fight between Schmidt and Palin about her desire to give a VP concession speech.

The final scene is an ominous panning of the soon-to-become-Tea Party crowd in Arizona chanting "Sarah, Sarah, Sarah" after McCain concedes. The message is clearly "and now this is the face of the party."

I was struck by that, in that I recalled quite clearly the assumption that coming out of 2008 Sarah Palin was an unstoppable force who was so clearly the front-runner for the GOP nomination in 2012 that other options should just get in line to be her veep already.

Today she's a failed reality TV star coasting in checks from the fetid swamps of Fox News commentariat gigs.

Keep this in mind as you guys project the candidates for 2016.


I don't know about that. Palin is pretty rare in the polititican that just did not care anything about government. Didn't care about reforming, didn't care about making it as limited/useless as possible. She just wanted one thing, and that was to make Sarah Palin a brand. But I feel that just about everyone else in politics is in it to make some sort of difference.

Let me put it this way, who gives up a Governor's seat TWO YEARS IN HER FIRST TERM JUST BECAUSE SHE DIDN'T WANT TO DO IT ANYMORE. That's just a gross misculation on whomever tried to put her there in the frist place. That's simply a person who doesn't belong in Political office.
   4994. BrianBrianson Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4296853)
It's the same conversation over and over: if a Republican says something offensive to a Latino voter, the Republican response is to explain how the problem isn't with what they said, but how it was unfairly interpreted-- so obviously the problem lies with the person doing the interpretation, rather than with the person who uttered the initial statement. And this works if you're addressing white people who think that nonwhites should just get over race already, but it doesn't work when you're trying to convince the offended people to cast a vote for you.


In fairness, this approach works moderately well for Republicans when it comes to dealing with women - not perfectly, but if they got ~45% of the Latino and Black vote, they'd be winning left, right, and center (well, right and center anyhow).
   4995. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4296854)
I kind of agree with both Ray and Andy on the race question. Put another way identity politics matter and race is very much a component of that. Demographics matter and demographics helped fuel the Obama victory. I think Obama gained some at the margins due to GOP disrespect and lost some at the margin with folks not wanting to vote for the black guy.

I think it all netted out to near zero and incumbancy and a great ground game ended up winning it for team blue. What happens to that ground game really matters though, and can/will Obama shift from building Brand Obama to building Brand Democrat (I suspect no, sadly).
   4996. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4296855)
I agree that race and ethnicity are complex issues, but there's nothing particularly complex about the rhetoric of "self-deportation" and "Nobody's ever had to ask me for my birth certificate." There was nothing very complex about the fixations over Rev. Wright, "Kenya", or "not really an American", all of which have been in the air for long stretches of time over the past four years. And if the Republican base really rejected that kind of crap, do you think that their candidates would have been offering it?


Andy, I don't see that the GOP product has changed very much in this respect over the years - not that I agree with your premise but whatever the GOP is now it has been already. And it didn't stop Bush from winning in 2000 or 2004, when people like you were still around calling the GOP bigots and racists.

So I do think the issue is irrelevant to explaining the results of last night, yes. Because:

“Someone there said, ‘I am tired of them disrespecting my president!’ The roof almost came down.”


How many of the people who were bringing the roof down had any prayer of voting Republican? That's what you're missing.
   4997. zack Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4296856)
Is there some reason instead of "statehood", VA and MD couldn't just annex large chunks of DC. Do we really need another state for that?


Mostly that Maryland state politics are a complete mess*, and if you didn't notice DC went over 91% for Obama last night. Neither VA nor the DC residents want to be mixed in with non-Northern Virgina. I don't know that statehood is required per se, but it's an abomination that there is no legislative representation for 600,000+ Americans, especially when said legislature has so much control over the DC government. The only reason they don't have representation is because of that 91%, the Republicans won't allow it since it's 5 guaranteed democratic congressmen. I know nothing about Puerto Rican politics but I imagine that there are similar issues there.

*Almost as bad as District politics.
   4998. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4296857)
And now I'm going to treat myself to a Grand Tour of all the right wing websites. Golden opportunities like this happen but once every four years.
   4999. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4296858)
And BTW if anyone stuck with PBS last night, he or she could have avoided all the BS spinning on the commercial networks, and gotten rather clear headed ongoing analysis from the entire PBS crew.


That would've required watching (or for that matter having) TV, & while I hate myself every now & then, I didn't want to subject myself to that particular punishment. Watching an episode from the first season of Haven via Netflix made for a far better experience.
   5000. formerly dp Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4296859)
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