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True, but the question is whether the Republicans can get any of that vote at all. Where else are they going to go to find a majority?
Look at the GOP percentage of the black vote before and after the 60's. Look at Romney's percentage of the Latino vote compared to Bush's. Add 2+2 and try real hard to come up with the right answer.
It's going to be a long and slow process for the GOP to undo its damage among minorities, but long journeys begin by taking that first step and not equivocating. It can be done, but not if it's done purely out of cynical political calculation.
Enjoy.
African Americans *have voted* Dem historically (post 1960s.)
There is little evidence that the GOP will take stances on issues important to African Americans that will change that any time soon.
There is a distinction between these two things and saying African Americans "all vote the same" because they're all the same race/ethnicity.
Note, I am not assigning animus to you in this conversation.
What you are missing is that without any prayer of this group ever voting Republican, the GOP will have an increasingly hard time maintaining it's current position, let alone expanding it. AA turnout was up to 15% of the electorate this time.
I was going to do that last night, but I was just too damn tired.
And I don't want to do it now, because I don't need that in my browser history at work.
If you find anything especially delicious, post a collection of them here later so I can find them when I get home.
Here's your market driver.
Hopefully, two elections in a row where Ohio goes to the Democrats will stop the lefty wingnuts from posting how the Ohio machines were bought/rigged/reprogrammed.
That is funny.
No but I am thinking about having a blog where I will discuss economics and how Scar Jo, Angelina and Johnny Depp prepared for their new movie roles.
So, they're a network aggregator then?
Is the order:
1) Sharia law
2) FEMA camps
3) Forced Collectivization
Or does it all just happen at once?
No. We won despite the defalcation.
There are plenty of people hoping to take Brown's place. I get the impression, for instance, that Gavin Newsom ran for Lt. Gov. to have a few-responsibilities position from which he could become a virtually full-time candidate for governor.
Have to collect everyone's guns first, of course. Otherwise, though, you nailed it, that's the order.
Note to self: find out more about this.
Is this on YouTube? I'm not sure I want to go look or not ...
and how would have a Romney victory had changed this outlook from Europe? If he would have won last night would the market have gone down as much as it has today?
/Republican science graduate
I doubt somebody like Gavin, or Tony V. Jackass down here in L.A. will have the political capital to make a serious run for governor. It's going to have to be a fairly fresh for the Dems if/when Brown finally goes into that sunset.
That's mighty gracious of them.
They spent a lot of time whining about the negativity and expense of the Obama ad campaign. Lots of time. They pulled in some Jimmy Carter pollster!! and he said that he didn't like Obama's campaign at all, which pleased the hostess. His follow-up comment about Romney's being no better was instantly ignored. :) Out of curiosity, I would have thought that Romney out-spent Obama by a fair amount, but maybe that's because I'm in PA. I will not miss the jogging mommy whose husband couldn't hold a job. :)
The Rove thing looked pathetic. Maybe what HW said upstream was true, but it still came off as pathetic; it seemed as though Rove knew this was the end of his reign as Supreme Mastermind.
I thought that was obvious.
Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist (I think), said on NBC last night that the GOP got "the piss beaten out of us." Probably didn't lift that from a talking point.
Hopefully, two elections in a row where Ohio goes to the Democrats will stop the lefty wingnuts from posting how the Ohio machines were bought/rigged/reprogrammed.
Yep.
FEMA camps come first. Gotta get 'em in the camps before we Shariaize 'em up.
1) Use secret weather weapon array in Alaska to generate "super storm" prior to election. (check)
2) Use "super storm" event fallout to win second term. (check)
3) Use "super storm" event fallout to create FEMA camps (pending)
4) Socialism.
5) Sharia.
Yet another potential great Primate handle.
I watched FOX News from beginning to end, just to watch Roger Ailes' stooges mope as the inevitable approached. Karl Rove was priceless.
1) Sharia law
2) FEMA camps
3) Forced Collectivization
FEMA camps come first. Gotta get 'em in the camps before we Shariaize 'em up.
1) Use secret weather weapon array in Alaska to generate "super storm" prior to election. (check)
2) Use "super storm" event fallout to win second term. (check)
3) Use "super storm" event fallout to create FEMA camps (pending)
4) Socialism.
5) Sharia.
I believe Mr. Obama agreed to forego all this last night in exchange for two NCAA D-I men's basketball seasons per year.
the dow futures were (i think) -10 this morning when i had to step out around 7:15 est. obama had already been announced as the new president. some data came out which (i believe) showed europe slowing. when i got back about 9 am, dow futures were down about 160. THAT is what triggered the selloff, not obama.
also, AAPL has been a broken stock for a few weeks after a near parabolic run for a large cap stock and is a huge component of the nasdaq.
i hope that this brings out other people working like nate silver does. how many of the people who trashed nate silver before the election are going to apologize? over under on: pundits? random anon commentators? and nate silver would have been generally right even without O getting FL, for example; the % there weren't significant different. but i'm preaching to the choir here on how close VA, FL, OH would be.
can't believe what i saw this morning about karl rove questioning the data people in fox's headquarters - really? if all the votes coming are in a D area, and it's tied, all the D voters aren't going to say "hey, let's change!". and since he's had tons of experience dealing with this, i can't imagine he doesn't know that.
i haven't heard speeches, but i really hope the Ds aren't claiming "mandate". it wasn't, it was smart planning by obama's team and screwups by certain R's. that's not "we love your ideas" but rather, you're not as awful as the other guys. then again, bush II was claiming mandate on much smaller grounds.
I watched the returns over broadcast telly. Mostly on NBC until OH was called, then over to Fox (not FoxNews on cable) when the meltdown started.
Shep Smith was a national treasure last night.
Well sure, and if the snake-handling wing of the Republican party ever got around to reading the bible they'd realize Jesus didn't say anything about abortion and queers and adjust their theological politics accordingly. But, you know, reality is what it is.
Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist (I think), said on NBC last night that the GOP got "the piss beaten out of us." Probably didn't lift that from a talking point.
It's a real damn shame that these things are so rare that we feel compelled to point them out.
Enjoy.
Naturally I'm starting with National Review online, and here the most interesting thing so far is a Jonah Goldberg column on Nate Silver. But even more interesting is the nearly unanimous pushback he got from Silver's defenders, most of whom seem to be fellow conservatives. You can read it here.
of course they should. they were voted less awful.
besides, the virtue of the EC is in making presidential elections look less close, no matter how the losing side might feel.
I might have done that myself, save for my absolute hatred of commercials.
But now back to the right wing jungle.....
Voting restrictions.
No. People reacted to the fact that you stonewalled to the point where nothing could get done. You can't cry that the ball is being taken away from you if you did nothing with it for years. I'm vary wary of the new Democratic supermajority, but a big part on why CA is in the hole it is in is because of the current climate that has been around for a good decade.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-congress-legislature-20121107,0,1277580,full.story
I see people like Andy are trying to explain the election by calling the GOP bigots and such. I think that analysis is expected, but it's far too complex and misses the mark. (And don't latinos typically vote Democrat? What chance does the GOP really have trying to win an election by turning latinos into GOP voters? It would be like trying to turn gays or blacks into GOP voters. Or, on the flip side, like Democrats trying to turn Evangelicals into Democrat voters.)
Republicans aren't going to win the Latino vote, but the Latino vote isn't monolithic and Republicans can do better with that demographic (and have in the past). I saw something this morning saying Obama had won 75% of the Latino vote this time around. On CNN last night they said it was 69% in the last election, and 59% in 2004.
Oh, one other thing. When Ohio was first called, Romney was leading by 150K in the popular vote. The discussion immediately launched into a discussion of it being a historic election, Romney winning the popular vote, etc.
See, this is why you need to actually attend. We spend a good hour talking about slavery retributions, redistribution of white women, and changing the national anthem to "Gettin' Jiggy With It."
For me, it's this.
in truth, that was one of the more offensive bits of cheerleading i heard from them last night - because they knew better and knew the data would soon come in.
The most unusual moment of the night for me was finding out FOX had called Wisconsin first, and that they were showing Romney ahead of Obama (63%-35%) with only 3% of the vote.
They must have had some TERRIBLE (for Romney) exit polling information to make that call that quick.
The FoxNews chat section went ballistic when they saw that.
"But Romney's ahead in Wisconsin!"
"It's only 3% of the vote!"
"What the hell is going on?!"
CNN didn't call Wisconsin for another 20 minutes.
Collect or toll-free?
Absolutely correct. The cluelessness of the California GOP is deeper than the Marianas Trench.
Perhaps becoming truly powerless for a legislative cycle or two will finally be the lesson the party needs. Perhaps.
Well, now we're proper ######.
Unfortunately, it's like beating a pillowcase stuffed with lard: It's dirty work, and there's nothing inside it that might either sustain injury or take note of what you're doing.
Also, both are greasy and smell bad.
That kind of thing happens every election - I was confused that people were up in arms or surprised about this.
Heck, I saw an election called last night with no votes in (forget which one).
Heck, I saw an election called last night with no votes in (forget which one).
They did that for over half the states. Most states as soon as the polls closed got called one way or the other.
As an aside, for a kid from the middle of crappy classic rock nowhere, the first time I heard that song I thought I saw god, seriously.
The picture implies that Silver is moving into basketball, possibly recruiting analysis.
Every single county I have ever lived in went blue this year. 8 for 8.
Nah, Gov. Brown still has a veto, and he is a proper nag about the budget. We'll be fine.
Keep in mind, I'm going to pull this list out in 2016.
A bit over the top, as Sullivan often is. But I sure hope he's right.
I need a job commenting about politics like I need a perforated bowel.
A Federal Office of Elections tasked with actually running things is never, ever going to happen, for about eleventy billion reasons. But if there were such a thing, I'd happily nominate Bowen (the Cal. Sec. of State) to run it.
Is the zips stuff "insider"?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/11/07/paul-ryan-immensely-proud/?hpid=z4
Aw, come on! Baseball-forecasters-turned-political-prognosticators are the new market inefficiency!
Both would be highly entertaining from afar.
There is a difference with calling California (where the polling was obviously pro-Obama) and Wisconsin (where the polling was much tighter).
Dekalb County (metro Atlanta) elected a sheriff who is currently indicted (and almost certainly going to be convicted of) murder. Because the other guy couldn't get onto the ballot in time to be listed and had to run a write-in campaign. Lost like 80/20.
Way to go, GA ballot access idiots!
Honestly, the only reason a state like GA or CA should even run an election is for state and local officials.
Not especially. Rock County is a lot of farms and Janesville, a city which has been trying to come back from a GM plant closure a few years ago.
I don't think Ryan has ever run for statewide office, btw.
Listening to him cry after the race was called was one of the highlights of the evening.
That's another thing. Federal elections should be run only for federal offices, and Congress should set the rules. Our system is just one big half-ass mess, beyond pathetic.
I guess we'll get a GOP senate in 2014 now...
He hasn't. It's now clear that while Romney's choice of Ryan probably didn't hurt the ticket, it sure didn't gain it anything tangible either. Though, as has been discussed, it isn't obvious that Romney had better choices.
he got 16,000 votes (winner has about 395,000 right now).
one other person had no information available on the state website, no website of his own, and didn't respond to the 5 questions sheet a paper sent him. (the other five active candidates included years practicing, law firms, judicial positions, endorsements, etc.) he was on the R line, and has 179,000 votes.
Romney wasn't a terrible candidate but he wasn't great, either. The economy line is certainly true but based on 2004 and 2012, I'd say the old axiom that an incumbant in bad times can't win is gone.
But the Rs really underestimate Obama. Not that I think Obama is a great president, I don't, but he clearly puts together great campaigns. Has he ever lost a race? He has organization from top to bottom and connects well with wide swaths of the population. The fact that the folks he doesn't connect with seem to hate him blinds them to the fact that he is a great candidate.
Why does everybody keep haarping on this?
We had a Soil and Water candidate who has never, in three campaigns for the seat, run any sort of campaign. In one race, the article describing the candidates simply said that his phone didn't accept outside phone calls and he had not answered several letters.
His name is Monk.
He got 15,000 votes (out of about 80,000) last night.
Cook?
My county went for Obama by 126.
Yes.
(from wiki)
In 2000, he lost a Democratic primary race for Illinois's 1st congressional district in the United States House of Representatives to four-term incumbent Bobby Rush by a margin of two to one
At this point Dems may WANT him to be back
Well played sir.
Dean Chambers: "Nate Silver was right, and I was wrong." Normally I would say "what else is he going to say" but I watched Karl Rove last night so my expectations have been lowered.
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