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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   5001. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4296860)
Good Lord, it's been 33 years since "I'm Governor Jerry Brown ... I want to be President" were lyrics in "California Uber Alles"
   5002. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4296861)

? What I'm saying is that, e.g., black people as a group will tend to vote heavily Democrat. Am I incorrect?


True, but the question is whether the Republicans can get any of that vote at all. Where else are they going to go to find a majority?
   5003. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4296863)
Andy, I don't see that the GOP product has changed very much in this respect over the years - not that I agree with your premise but whatever the GOP is now it has been already. And it didn't stop Bush from winning in 2000 or 2004, when people like you were still around calling the GOP bigots and racists.

Look at the GOP percentage of the black vote before and after the 60's. Look at Romney's percentage of the Latino vote compared to Bush's. Add 2+2 and try real hard to come up with the right answer.

It's going to be a long and slow process for the GOP to undo its damage among minorities, but long journeys begin by taking that first step and not equivocating. It can be done, but not if it's done purely out of cynical political calculation.
   5004. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4296864)
And now I'm going to treat myself to a Grand Tour of all the right wing websites. Golden opportunities like this happen but once every four years.


Enjoy.
   5005. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:41 PM (#4296865)
I thought the FOX personalities handled the defeat quite well. Aside from Rove throwing up the stop sign over Ohio and persisting in this even after Ohio had become irrelevant, there was basically just a lot of whining about how it wasn't a mandate (Krauthammer) and people still didn't like Obamacare (Lowry) and what the GOP should do going forward. Nobody was saying that Obama stole the election or won via voter fraud or anything.
   5006. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4296866)
? What I'm saying is that, e.g., black people as a group will tend to vote heavily Democrat. Am I incorrect?


African Americans *have voted* Dem historically (post 1960s.)

There is little evidence that the GOP will take stances on issues important to African Americans that will change that any time soon.

There is a distinction between these two things and saying African Americans "all vote the same" because they're all the same race/ethnicity.

Note, I am not assigning animus to you in this conversation.
   5007. spike Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4296867)
How many of the people who were bringing the roof down had any prayer of voting Republican? That's what you're missing.

What you are missing is that without any prayer of this group ever voting Republican, the GOP will have an increasingly hard time maintaining it's current position, let alone expanding it. AA turnout was up to 15% of the electorate this time.
   5008. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4296868)
And now I'm going to treat myself to a Grand Tour of all the right wing websites. Golden opportunities like this happen but once every four years.


I was going to do that last night, but I was just too damn tired.
And I don't want to do it now, because I don't need that in my browser history at work.

If you find anything especially delicious, post a collection of them here later so I can find them when I get home.
   5009. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4296869)
World markets lost momentum and turned lower Wednesday, following the re-election of U.S. President Barack Obama and pessimistic comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi.

"Unemployment is deplorably high," the central bank president said. "Overall economic activity is weak and it is expected to remain weak in the near term. And the growth of money and credit are subdued."

The European Commission also issued a report that forecast economic activity in the European Union to contract by 0.3% this year, "followed by subdued growth in 2013." Activity in the 17-nation eurozone will contract by 0.4% this year, with projected growth of 0.1% next year.

...

The European Commission said it expected the German economy to slow further in the second half of 2012 due to weaker export markets and investment activity, a view echoed by ECB President Mario Draghi.

"Germany has so far been largely insulated from some of the difficulties elsewhere in the euro area. But the latest data suggest that these developments are now starting to affect the German economy," Draghi said in a speech Wednesday in Frankfurt.

German GDP growth would slow to 0.8% in 2012, down from 3% last year. It would only manage 0.8% growth again next year, according to the Commission's forecasts.

German industrial production shrank 1.8% in September after declining 0.4% the month before, the economy ministry said Wednesday.


Here's your market driver.
   5010. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4296870)
Nobody was saying that Obama stole the election or won via voter fraud or anything.


Hopefully, two elections in a row where Ohio goes to the Democrats will stop the lefty wingnuts from posting how the Ohio machines were bought/rigged/reprogrammed.
   5011. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4296871)
5000:

That is funny.
   5012. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4296872)
Newsletter? Subscribe me!


No but I am thinking about having a blog where I will discuss economics and how Scar Jo, Angelina and Johnny Depp prepared for their new movie roles.
   5013. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4296873)
And BTW if anyone stuck with PBS last night, he or she could have avoided all the BS spinning on the commercial networks, and gotten rather clear headed ongoing analysis from the entire PBS crew.

So, they're a network aggregator then?
   5014. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4296874)
So, I missed a meeting of Obamathrallz.

Is the order:
1) Sharia law
2) FEMA camps
3) Forced Collectivization

Or does it all just happen at once?
   5015. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4296875)
Hopefully, two elections in a row where Ohio goes to the Democrats will stop the lefty wingnuts from posting how the Ohio machines were bought/rigged/reprogrammed.


No. We won despite the defalcation.
   5016. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4296877)
[5008] Here's lovely selection from freerepublic taken before Romney conceded.


807 posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 10:21:53 PM by TheStickman

Yes. My family has survived English socialism and Polish communism. But who wants to simply survive?

God is allowing our country to suffer, and He will bring a greater good from it.


850 posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 10:29:00 PM by St_Thomas_Aquinas

I have to admit, I’m stunned by some of the results I’m seeing tonight. I take nothing as etched in stone yet, but I really am surprised at how strongly Obama has been running at this point.

2008 made sense. The GOP brand was badly damaged, and McCain was the worst Republican candidate since Bob Dole in 1996. 2012 seemed a different horse all together. Even pro-Obama polls showed him vulnerable on all the issues, and IMHO, Romney has run a very strong campaign. Just doesn’t make sense to me.

We’ll see, though. FL, VA, and OH haven’t been called yet (at least as I finish this post). Might be a few surprises yet.


852 posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 10:29:09 PM by DemforBush

The most frustrating thing is that God has given us a fantastic candidate in Romney. He is the man for the times, and the freaking scum half of this country is more interested in free frikin condoms!


864 posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 10:30:59 PM by Phillyred

Sodom and Gomorrah

US Churches filled with Non Christians, people spitting on Christ

Next step wide spread gay marriage

Weep for this country


884 posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 10:34:00 PM by Friendofgeorge

Potheads winning Florida for Obama.


916 posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 10:39:18 PM by Berlin_Freeper

The hand writing is on the wall. If Obama can get this many votes then what does that tell us?
It is over - America, as we once knew it, is gone.

Yup, Next thing on the agenda to do is to find a “Galt’s Gulch”….

I am thinking the Moon, then we can trow rocks at the Socialists on Earth, throw them at 25,000MPH!!!!!

young modern women have no clue as to what they uave lost. I see trem having babies and going to work before they are weeks old, pumping at work and feeling all noble while a third world coumtry woman is at home with their babies. They dont know what Mothering is, they think it is pumping, posting pics on facebook and getting kid into daycare.

Sad thing.
   5017. OCF Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4296878)
When he was running for governor in 2010, Jerry Brown did say that he was too old to have national ambitions any more. And on this point, I'm inclined to believe him. The possible dynamic setting up for the next two years: it's possible that the Democrats have won a 2/3 supermajority in one or both houses of the state legislature. If that happens, the legislature becomes free to act, the Republicans become ignored nonentities, and the key negotiations and confrontations will be between legislative leaders and Brown - with Brown as the de facto conservative.

There are plenty of people hoping to take Brown's place. I get the impression, for instance, that Gavin Newsom ran for Lt. Gov. to have a few-responsibilities position from which he could become a virtually full-time candidate for governor.
   5018. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4296879)

Is the order:
1) Sharia law
2) FEMA camps
3) Forced Collectivization

Or does it all just happen at once?


Have to collect everyone's guns first, of course. Otherwise, though, you nailed it, that's the order.
   5019. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4296880)
A one-time Harlem Globetrotter provided some razzle-dazzle in Arkansas. Fred Smith, of the Green Party, was elected to the Legislature when a judge said no votes would be counted for his opponent because of a felony conviction.


Note to self: find out more about this.
   5020. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4296881)
Aside from Rove throwing up


Is this on YouTube? I'm not sure I want to go look or not ...
   5021. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4296883)
World markets lost momentum and turned lower Wednesday, following the re-election of U.S. President Barack Obama and pessimistic comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi.

"Unemployment is deplorably high," the central bank president said. "Overall economic activity is weak and it is expected to remain weak in the near term. And the growth of money and credit are subdued."

The European Commission also issued a report that forecast economic activity in the European Union to contract by 0.3% this year, "followed by subdued growth in 2013." Activity in the 17-nation eurozone will contract by 0.4% this year, with projected growth of 0.1% next year.

...

The European Commission said it expected the German economy to slow further in the second half of 2012 due to weaker export markets and investment activity, a view echoed by ECB President Mario Draghi.

"Germany has so far been largely insulated from some of the difficulties elsewhere in the euro area. But the latest data suggest that these developments are now starting to affect the German economy," Draghi said in a speech Wednesday in Frankfurt.

German GDP growth would slow to 0.8% in 2012, down from 3% last year. It would only manage 0.8% growth again next year, according to the Commission's forecasts.

German industrial production shrank 1.8% in September after declining 0.4% the month before, the economy ministry said Wednesday.



and how would have a Romney victory had changed this outlook from Europe? If he would have won last night would the market have gone down as much as it has today?
   5022. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4296884)
I rarely do this, Andy - but I was looking for the network ridiculousness last night. I flipped from Fox, to MSNBC, to CNN, to CSPAN, to Democracy Now, to... - it was a good time.
   5023. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4296885)
Karl Rove and Dick Morris, the Un-dynamic duo.
   5024. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4296886)
I'm really pissed at myself that I didn't sell most of my stocks yesterday - I read Nate Silver, I should have known.
   5025. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4296887)
I am thinking the Moon, then we can trow rocks at the Socialists on Earth, throw them at 25,000MPH!!!!!


/Republican science graduate
   5026. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4296889)

There are plenty of people hoping to take Brown's place. I get the impression, for instance, that Gavin Newsom ran for Lt. Gov. to have a few-responsibilities position from which he could become a virtually full-time candidate for governor.


I doubt somebody like Gavin, or Tony V. Jackass down here in L.A. will have the political capital to make a serious run for governor. It's going to have to be a fairly fresh for the Dems if/when Brown finally goes into that sunset.
   5027. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4296890)
I am thinking the dems should strongly consider running another brown person in 2016.
   5028. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4296891)
I thought the FOX personalities handled the defeat quite well. ... Nobody was saying that Obama stole the election or won via voter fraud or anything.

That's mighty gracious of them.

They spent a lot of time whining about the negativity and expense of the Obama ad campaign. Lots of time. They pulled in some Jimmy Carter pollster!! and he said that he didn't like Obama's campaign at all, which pleased the hostess. His follow-up comment about Romney's being no better was instantly ignored. :) Out of curiosity, I would have thought that Romney out-spent Obama by a fair amount, but maybe that's because I'm in PA. I will not miss the jogging mommy whose husband couldn't hold a job. :)

The Rove thing looked pathetic. Maybe what HW said upstream was true, but it still came off as pathetic; it seemed as though Rove knew this was the end of his reign as Supreme Mastermind.

   5029. Steve Treder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4296892)
I get the impression, for instance, that Gavin Newsom ran for Lt. Gov. to have a few-responsibilities position from which he could become a virtually full-time candidate for governor.

I thought that was obvious.
   5030. Moloka'i Three-Finger Brown (Declino DeShields) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4296893)
That would be Kirsten Powers, who is a Democrat. And she is pretty objective; refreshing to see anyone from either party who will veer from the talking points faxed out each morning.


Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist (I think), said on NBC last night that the GOP got "the piss beaten out of us." Probably didn't lift that from a talking point.
   5031. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4296894)

Hopefully, two elections in a row where Ohio goes to the Democrats will stop the lefty wingnuts from posting how the Ohio machines were bought/rigged/reprogrammed.


Yep.
   5032. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4296895)
Is the order:
1) Sharia law
2) FEMA camps
3) Forced Collectivization


FEMA camps come first. Gotta get 'em in the camps before we Shariaize 'em up.

1) Use secret weather weapon array in Alaska to generate "super storm" prior to election. (check)
2) Use "super storm" event fallout to win second term. (check)
3) Use "super storm" event fallout to create FEMA camps (pending)
4) Socialism.
5) Sharia.
   5033. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4296896)
the jogging mommy whose husband couldn't hold a job.


Yet another potential great Primate handle.
   5034. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4296897)
So who has the list of the winners and losers last night as far as predictions went? Is Joe holding it?
   5035. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4296898)
And BTW if anyone stuck with PBS last night, he or she could have avoided all the BS spinning on the commercial networks, and gotten rather clear headed ongoing analysis from the entire PBS crew.


I watched FOX News from beginning to end, just to watch Roger Ailes' stooges mope as the inevitable approached. Karl Rove was priceless.
   5036. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4296899)
Is the order:
1) Sharia law
2) FEMA camps
3) Forced Collectivization



FEMA camps come first. Gotta get 'em in the camps before we Shariaize 'em up.

1) Use secret weather weapon array in Alaska to generate "super storm" prior to election. (check)
2) Use "super storm" event fallout to win second term. (check)
3) Use "super storm" event fallout to create FEMA camps (pending)
4) Socialism.
5) Sharia.


I believe Mr. Obama agreed to forego all this last night in exchange for two NCAA D-I men's basketball seasons per year.
   5037. bob gee Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4296900)
few things:

the dow futures were (i think) -10 this morning when i had to step out around 7:15 est. obama had already been announced as the new president. some data came out which (i believe) showed europe slowing. when i got back about 9 am, dow futures were down about 160. THAT is what triggered the selloff, not obama.

also, AAPL has been a broken stock for a few weeks after a near parabolic run for a large cap stock and is a huge component of the nasdaq.

i hope that this brings out other people working like nate silver does. how many of the people who trashed nate silver before the election are going to apologize? over under on: pundits? random anon commentators? and nate silver would have been generally right even without O getting FL, for example; the % there weren't significant different. but i'm preaching to the choir here on how close VA, FL, OH would be.

can't believe what i saw this morning about karl rove questioning the data people in fox's headquarters - really? if all the votes coming are in a D area, and it's tied, all the D voters aren't going to say "hey, let's change!". and since he's had tons of experience dealing with this, i can't imagine he doesn't know that.

i haven't heard speeches, but i really hope the Ds aren't claiming "mandate". it wasn't, it was smart planning by obama's team and screwups by certain R's. that's not "we love your ideas" but rather, you're not as awful as the other guys. then again, bush II was claiming mandate on much smaller grounds.



   5038. formerly dp Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4296901)
nevermind
   5039. hokieneer Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4296902)
I thought Clinton started building the FEMA camps?
   5040. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4296903)
Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist (I think), said on NBC last night that the GOP got "the piss beaten out of us." Probably didn't lift that from a talking point.


I watched the returns over broadcast telly. Mostly on NBC until OH was called, then over to Fox (not FoxNews on cable) when the meltdown started.

Shep Smith was a national treasure last night.
   5041. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4296904)
In fairness, this approach works moderately well for Republicans when it comes to dealing with women - not perfectly, but if they got ~45% of the Latino and Black vote, they'd be winning left, right, and center (well, right and center anyhow).


Well sure, and if the snake-handling wing of the Republican party ever got around to reading the bible they'd realize Jesus didn't say anything about abortion and queers and adjust their theological politics accordingly. But, you know, reality is what it is.
   5042. OCF Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4296905)
Obama's margin of victory in my county is about 950,000. How may red states would that swamp all by itself?
   5043. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4296906)
That would be Kirsten Powers, who is a Democrat. And she is pretty objective; refreshing to see anyone from either party who will veer from the talking points faxed out each morning.


Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist (I think), said on NBC last night that the GOP got "the piss beaten out of us." Probably didn't lift that from a talking point.


It's a real damn shame that these things are so rare that we feel compelled to point them out.
   5044. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4296907)
And now I'm going to treat myself to a Grand Tour of all the right wing websites. Golden opportunities like this happen but once every four years.

Enjoy.


Naturally I'm starting with National Review online, and here the most interesting thing so far is a Jonah Goldberg column on Nate Silver. But even more interesting is the nearly unanimous pushback he got from Silver's defenders, most of whom seem to be fellow conservatives. You can read it here.
   5045. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:58 PM (#4296908)
i haven't heard speeches, but i really hope the Ds aren't claiming "mandate".

of course they should. they were voted less awful.
besides, the virtue of the EC is in making presidential elections look less close, no matter how the losing side might feel.
   5046. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4296909)
I rarely do this, Andy - but I was looking for the network ridiculousness last night. I flipped from Fox, to MSNBC, to CNN, to CSPAN, to Democracy Now, to... - it was a good time.

I might have done that myself, save for my absolute hatred of commercials.

But now back to the right wing jungle.....
   5047. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4296910)
True, but the question is whether the Republicans can get any of that vote at all. Where else are they going to go to find a majority?


Voting restrictions.
   5048. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4296912)
On the issue of CA possibly electing a supermajority in their state Assembly:

Republicans warned that Californians could be eliminating some of the leverage GOP lawmakers have used to oppose tax increases or extract spending reductions and other concessions in exchange for needed votes to raise taxes. "The power would be given to the very same people who have fought for higher sales taxes, income taxes, gas taxes, soda taxes, diaper taxes, and finding new ways to let convicted criminals out of jail early,'' said Senate Republican leader Bob Huff of Diamond Bar.


No. People reacted to the fact that you stonewalled to the point where nothing could get done. You can't cry that the ball is being taken away from you if you did nothing with it for years. I'm vary wary of the new Democratic supermajority, but a big part on why CA is in the hole it is in is because of the current climate that has been around for a good decade.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-congress-legislature-20121107,0,1277580,full.story
   5049. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4296913)

I see people like Andy are trying to explain the election by calling the GOP bigots and such. I think that analysis is expected, but it's far too complex and misses the mark. (And don't latinos typically vote Democrat? What chance does the GOP really have trying to win an election by turning latinos into GOP voters? It would be like trying to turn gays or blacks into GOP voters. Or, on the flip side, like Democrats trying to turn Evangelicals into Democrat voters.)

Republicans aren't going to win the Latino vote, but the Latino vote isn't monolithic and Republicans can do better with that demographic (and have in the past). I saw something this morning saying Obama had won 75% of the Latino vote this time around. On CNN last night they said it was 69% in the last election, and 59% in 2004.
   5050. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4296916)
I thought the FOX personalities handled the defeat quite well. ... Nobody was saying that Obama stole the election or won via voter fraud or anything.

Oh, one other thing. When Ohio was first called, Romney was leading by 150K in the popular vote. The discussion immediately launched into a discussion of it being a historic election, Romney winning the popular vote, etc.
   5051. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4296917)
So, I missed a meeting of Obamathrallz.

Is the order:
1) Sharia law
2) FEMA camps
3) Forced Collectivization

Or does it all just happen at once?


See, this is why you need to actually attend. We spend a good hour talking about slavery retributions, redistribution of white women, and changing the national anthem to "Gettin' Jiggy With It."
   5052. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4296918)
Dammit now I've got Cult of Personality stuck in my head again.


For me, it's this.
   5053. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4296920)
you have to understand, edmundo - fox-n doesn't recognize that california exists outside of orange county, san diego...

in truth, that was one of the more offensive bits of cheerleading i heard from them last night - because they knew better and knew the data would soon come in.
   5054. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4296922)
Oh, one other thing. When Ohio was first called, Romney was leading by 150K in the popular vote. The discussion immediately launched into a discussion of it being a historic election, Romney winning the popular vote, etc.


The most unusual moment of the night for me was finding out FOX had called Wisconsin first, and that they were showing Romney ahead of Obama (63%-35%) with only 3% of the vote.

They must have had some TERRIBLE (for Romney) exit polling information to make that call that quick.

The FoxNews chat section went ballistic when they saw that.
"But Romney's ahead in Wisconsin!"
"It's only 3% of the vote!"
"What the hell is going on?!"

CNN didn't call Wisconsin for another 20 minutes.
   5055. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4296923)
CNN didn't call Wisconsin for another 20 minutes.


Collect or toll-free?
   5056. Steve Treder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:17 PM (#4296924)
You can't cry that the ball is being taken away from you if you did nothing with it for years. I'm vary wary of the new Democratic supermajority, but a big part on why CA is in the hole it is in is because of the current climate that has been around for a good decade.

Absolutely correct. The cluelessness of the California GOP is deeper than the Marianas Trench.

Perhaps becoming truly powerless for a legislative cycle or two will finally be the lesson the party needs. Perhaps.
   5057. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:17 PM (#4296926)
On the issue of CA possibly electing a supermajority in their state Assembly:


Well, now we're proper ######.
   5058. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4296929)
Naturally I'm starting with National Review online, and here the most interesting thing so far is a Jonah Goldberg column on Nate Silver. But even more interesting is the nearly unanimous pushback he got from Silver's defenders, most of whom seem to be fellow conservatives. You can read it here.
Wow, did Goldberg set himself up for a well-deserved beating.
   5059. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:22 PM (#4296930)
CNN called Wisconsin early as well. When CNN called it it was something like 75-25 Romney.
   5060. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:22 PM (#4296931)
Wow, did Goldberg set himself up for a well-deserved beating.


Unfortunately, it's like beating a pillowcase stuffed with lard: It's dirty work, and there's nothing inside it that might either sustain injury or take note of what you're doing.

Also, both are greasy and smell bad.
   5061. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4296932)
wisconsin is not a hard state to call as it divvies up pretty clearly.

   5062. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4296934)
The most unusual moment of the night for me was finding out FOX had called Wisconsin first, and that they were showing Romney ahead of Obama (63%-35%) with only 3% of the vote.

That kind of thing happens every election - I was confused that people were up in arms or surprised about this.
Heck, I saw an election called last night with no votes in (forget which one).
   5063. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4296935)
That kind of thing happens every election - I was confused that people were up in arms or surprised about this.
Heck, I saw an election called last night with no votes in (forget which one).


They did that for over half the states. Most states as soon as the polls closed got called one way or the other.
   5064. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4296936)
Dammit now I've got Cult of Personality stuck in my head again.

As an aside, for a kid from the middle of crappy classic rock nowhere, the first time I heard that song I thought I saw god, seriously.
   5065. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4296938)
Wow, did Goldberg set himself up for a well-deserved beating.


The picture implies that Silver is moving into basketball, possibly recruiting analysis.
   5066. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:37 PM (#4296940)
Good to see Racine/Kenosha turn blue at the end. I was a little worried that it would go red this time around.

Every single county I have ever lived in went blue this year. 8 for 8.
   5067. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:37 PM (#4296941)
As an aside, for a kid from the middle of crappy classic rock nowhere, the first time I heard that song I thought I saw god, seriously.
When I saw Living Colour on SNL, I instantly developed a crush on Corey Glover.
   5068. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:42 PM (#4296944)
I was just thinking that, given that the initial ESPN ZiPS flurry starts today, it's quite useful that Nate did so well with his political projections, because I'm sure I'd hear about it in the comments if he didn't. I'm sure I'll get lots of achingly awful comments, but at least they won't have that angle to ##### about.
   5069. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:42 PM (#4296945)
Clinto built the FEMA camps, they haven't been filled... Yet
   5070. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4296946)
Gary Johnson will be calling, Dan!
   5071. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4296947)

Well, now we're proper ######.


Nah, Gov. Brown still has a veto, and he is a proper nag about the budget. We'll be fine.
   5072. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4296949)
Okay, now that Obama has been re-elected and we can move beyond "extreme stuff we say to try and convince someone to not vote for him," what do strongly anti-Obama Primates think Obama is going to do/try to do in the next four years that you really don't like, and think that most voters won't like.

Keep in mind, I'm going to pull this list out in 2016.
   5073. Steve Treder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4296952)
I missed Andrew Sullivan's live blog last night:

What was defeated tonight was not just Romney, a hollow cynic, but a whole mountain of mendacity and delusion. That sound you hear is the cognitive dissonance ringing in the ears of ideologues and cynics. Any true conservative longs for that sound, the sound of reality arriving to pierce through fantasy and fanaticism.


A bit over the top, as Sullivan often is. But I sure hope he's right.
   5074. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4296954)
Gary Johnson will be calling, Dan!

I need a job commenting about politics like I need a perforated bowel.
   5075. OCF Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4296955)
By the way, the California Secretary of State has a very nicely done website with election results. (I won't bother giving a link - it's easy enough to Google.) Among the things in there are some color-coded maps showing the winners by county of the various statewide races: President, Senate, and the various ballot initiatives. Go look at those maps. They're a very visual reminder of what California political geography really looks like. The big split is not north/south; it's coastal/inland.

A Federal Office of Elections tasked with actually running things is never, ever going to happen, for about eleventy billion reasons. But if there were such a thing, I'd happily nominate Bowen (the Cal. Sec. of State) to run it.
   5076. zenbitz Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4296956)
Dan -
Is the zips stuff "insider"?
   5077. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4296958)
Obama won 60% of Ryan's home county. I don't know the specifics of the demographics; is that surprising?


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/11/07/paul-ryan-immensely-proud/?hpid=z4
   5078. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4296960)
I need a job commenting about politics like I need a perforated bowel.


Aw, come on! Baseball-forecasters-turned-political-prognosticators are the new market inefficiency!
   5079. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4296961)
I need a job commenting about politics like I need a perforated bowel.


Both would be highly entertaining from afar.
   5080. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4296962)
Heck, I saw an election called last night with no votes in (forget which one).


There is a difference with calling California (where the polling was obviously pro-Obama) and Wisconsin (where the polling was much tighter).
   5081. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4296963)
A one-time Harlem Globetrotter provided some razzle-dazzle in Arkansas. Fred Smith, of the Green Party, was elected to the Legislature when a judge said no votes would be counted for his opponent because of a felony conviction


Dekalb County (metro Atlanta) elected a sheriff who is currently indicted (and almost certainly going to be convicted of) murder. Because the other guy couldn't get onto the ballot in time to be listed and had to run a write-in campaign. Lost like 80/20.

Way to go, GA ballot access idiots!
   5082. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4296965)
Heck, I saw an election called last night with no votes in (forget which one).


Honestly, the only reason a state like GA or CA should even run an election is for state and local officials.
   5083. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4296966)
Obama won 60% of Ryan's home county. I don't know the specifics of the demographics; is that surprising?


Not especially. Rock County is a lot of farms and Janesville, a city which has been trying to come back from a GM plant closure a few years ago.

I don't think Ryan has ever run for statewide office, btw.
   5084. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:02 PM (#4296968)
What is so surprising with calling an election with no votes? I can call New York for 2016 right now.
   5085. spike Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4296969)
Wow, did Goldberg set himself up for a well-deserved beating.

Listening to him cry after the race was called was one of the highlights of the evening.
   5086. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4296970)
Honestly, the only reason a state like GA or CA should even run an election is for state and local officials.

That's another thing. Federal elections should be run only for federal offices, and Congress should set the rules. Our system is just one big half-ass mess, beyond pathetic.
   5087. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4296971)
Yeah, but calling Wis. after so soon should be suprising. This is the state the Republican VP candiate is from. That he couldn't hold his own state, or his own district apparently has to be suprising. If only at a glance.
   5088. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:06 PM (#4296972)
Has anyone checked on Snapper?
   5089. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4296974)
Republicans take heart! Dick Morris (Mr. always wrong) says you are doomed:

“The percentage of single women, minorities and voters under 30 is so large at this point that unless the Republican Party fundamentally changes its appeal to those voters, it can never win an election,” Morris said.
He continued: “If this candidate in this economy against this opponent can’t win an election with this electorate — nobody ever can.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83490.html#ixzz2BYr8A4vl


I guess we'll get a GOP senate in 2014 now...
   5090. Steve Treder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4296975)
I don't think Ryan has ever run for statewide office, btw.

He hasn't. It's now clear that while Romney's choice of Ryan probably didn't hurt the ticket, it sure didn't gain it anything tangible either. Though, as has been discussed, it isn't obvious that Romney had better choices.
   5091. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4296976)
I meant an election that was expected to be close. Regardless... Wisconsin was never in doubt (IMO).
   5092. bob gee Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:10 PM (#4296977)
ny state had a guy who ran for judge just to get off the ballot in another county. he was only listed on one line (WF), and there were 6 other people running for 3 positions.

he got 16,000 votes (winner has about 395,000 right now).

one other person had no information available on the state website, no website of his own, and didn't respond to the 5 questions sheet a paper sent him. (the other five active candidates included years practicing, law firms, judicial positions, endorsements, etc.) he was on the R line, and has 179,000 votes.


   5093. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4296978)
“If this candidate (meh) in this economy (true) against this opponent (come on*) can’t win an election with this electorate — nobody ever can.


Romney wasn't a terrible candidate but he wasn't great, either. The economy line is certainly true but based on 2004 and 2012, I'd say the old axiom that an incumbant in bad times can't win is gone.

But the Rs really underestimate Obama. Not that I think Obama is a great president, I don't, but he clearly puts together great campaigns. Has he ever lost a race? He has organization from top to bottom and connects well with wide swaths of the population. The fact that the folks he doesn't connect with seem to hate him blinds them to the fact that he is a great candidate.
   5094. Chicago Joe Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4296979)
FEMA camps come first.


Why does everybody keep haarping on this?
   5095. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:12 PM (#4296980)
Speaking of staking the heart, I enjoyed this bit of hyperbole from one Democrat regarding Karl Rove


Does this mean Karl Rove is gone for good?

Not at all. It is worth remembering Rove has been written off before. In 2007, he was forced out of the White House in disgrace, having narrowly escaped indictment, the target of two of the biggest scandals in the Bush-Cheney era, having barely escaped indictment. The next year, his patron, George W. Bush, left the presidency with a 22 percent approval rating, the lowest in the history of the United States. The Rove brand was tainted irrevocably. Or so it seemed.

All of which means, when it comes to Karl Rove, the Democrats had best play by Chicago rules. “That means when he is dead, you put a stake through his heart,” explained one Democratic operative. “Then you put a bullet through his head. You pour gasoline on him and set him on fire. Then you kill him again. Because he’ll be back.”
   5096. bunyon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4296981)
one other person had no information available on the state website, no website of his own, and didn't respond to the 5 questions sheet a paper sent him. (the other five active candidates included years practicing, law firms, judicial positions, endorsements, etc.) he was on the R line, and has 179,000 votes.

We had a Soil and Water candidate who has never, in three campaigns for the seat, run any sort of campaign. In one race, the article describing the candidates simply said that his phone didn't accept outside phone calls and he had not answered several letters.

His name is Monk.

He got 15,000 votes (out of about 80,000) last night.
   5097. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4296982)
Obama's margin of victory in my county is about 950,000. How may red states would that swamp all by itself?


Cook?

My county went for Obama by 126.
   5098. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4296983)
Has he ever lost a race?


Yes.

(from wiki)
In 2000, he lost a Democratic primary race for Illinois's 1st congressional district in the United States House of Representatives to four-term incumbent Bobby Rush by a margin of two to one
   5099. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4296984)
Then you kill him again. Because he’ll be back.


At this point Dems may WANT him to be back
   5100. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4296985)
Why does everybody keep haarping on this?


Well played sir.

Dean Chambers: "Nate Silver was right, and I was wrong." Normally I would say "what else is he going to say" but I watched Karl Rove last night so my expectations have been lowered.
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