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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   5201. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4297119)
Rasmussen has absolutely no comment today on his own polling misfires. His website engages in classic Dean Smith stallball and doesn't even mention his final numbers. It's a filibuster worthy of the great Strom Thurmond.

It's also funny what he says here, without mentioning how Nate manages to adjust for the sort of biases he's talking about:

This race was very likely the last presidential election of the telephone polling era. While the industry did an excellent job of projecting last night’s election, entirely new techniques will need to be developed before 2016. The central issue is that phone polling worked for decades because that was how people communicated. In the 21st century, that is no longer true.


   5202. GregD Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4297120)
I think eyeballing NYC was 1.1 million margin for Obama though not all counted.
   5203. spike Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4297121)
The election was much closer than it appears in your rear-view mirror.

How do you figure that? If I only count states Obama won by more than 4 points, he still wins the EC.
   5204. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4297122)
What's the current tally when it comes to popular votes?
   5205. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4297123)
I guess. But I still consider anything that was part of the CSA to be part of the South (Texans invariably start to sputter and argue at this point). Deep South, sure I guess.


East Texas is very much like West Louisiana. The twang is even similar, and just as Cajuns invaded southwest Louisiana (the Lake Charles area), that invasion encroaches into southeast Texas, such as Orange, Beaumont, Port Arthur. And in the north part of both states, well, just remember that Joe Bob Briggs was just as at home in the Shreveport-Bossier City movie drive-ins as he was in the Dallas-Fort Worth ones.
   5206. spike Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4297124)
WaPo has

Barack Obama
60,193,076
Mitt Romney
57,468,587
   5207. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4297125)
Rasmussen has absolutely no comment today on his own polling misfires. His website engages in classic Dean Smith stallball and doesn't even mention his final numbers. It's a filibuster worthy of the great Strom Thurmond.


Dean Chambers was calling out Rasmussen.
   5208. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4297126)
The LA Times has a gif of how each county voted. A lot of red where people don't live, and a lot of blue where the cities and population centers are.
   5209. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4297127)
Obama's up about 3m in the Popular Vote at the moment, with i think 125m votes in. So probably 10m more votes to count.
   5210. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:59 PM (#4297128)
You gotta feel for Rasmussen on some level. His whole business probably went bankrupt. But uh, no subsidies for him.
   5211. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:59 PM (#4297129)
In terms of ideology, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia are fast approaching Deep South status, while North Carolina seems headed more in the direction of Virginia.


Ideologically, TN, KY and WV are all Appalachian, and thus align with the Deep South on the issues. But they are not Deep South states, any more so than GA, AL or MS are Appalachia. It's a geographic distinction, and a real cultural distinction within the larger South itself.

Deep South is where King Cotton ruled. You can't grow cotton in the mountains. The cultural capitols of the Deep South are Charleston, SC; Savannah, GA; and Pearl, MS. Appalachia has no cultural capitols, to speak of. The difference between TN, KY, WV (and northern AL and sections of AR) is the difference between old southern gentility - plantation owners; gentlemen farmers - and rednecks and hillbillies. The former is descended from English aristocracy. The latter is descended from Scot-Irish immigrants, beginning with indentured servants and prisoner colony members sent out of debtor's prison to settle GA.
   5212. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4297136)
Yeah, no way the First Lady ever runs for a political office. She doesn't have the skills, traits, nor desire to do it. You could tell Hillary was going to run from basically the get go and you could tell Barbara and Nancy were of the grand matriarch/dragon ladies of yesteryear that rule via their husbands. Michelle is kind of like Laura Bush light.
   5213. Danny Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4297137)
1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER

Only two of these were blessed with inclusion at RCP.
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

All of these were included at RCP.
   5214. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4297138)
East Texas is very much like West Louisiana.


Agreed. The closer you are to Old Man River, the closer you are to King Cotton, the closer you are to the Heart of the South. The further west you go into cattle and cowboy territory, the more Texas becomes Texas.

Texas is really friggin' big. It is really something like five distinct states.
   5215. Howie Menckel Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4297139)

Dick Morris had it last week as 325-213, which could turn out to be very close - except for the fact that he had Romney winning by that margin.

Romney projected Romney wins in OH, PA, FL, WI, MN, plus VA and NC.
Perhaps to demonstrate his objectivity, though, he did toss Obama a bone with NV.

   5216. Mike A Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4297140)
Being from North Florida, I would consider it Deep South.

Is there any other state with such a strong split? North Florida and South Florida are pretty much night and day in terms of...everything.
   5217. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4297141)

This race was very likely the last presidential election of the telephone polling era. While the industry did an excellent job of projecting last night’s election, entirely new techniques will need to be developed before 2016. The central issue is that phone polling worked for decades because that was how people communicated. In the 21st century, that is no longer true.


Interesting to note that one of the preliminary 'better' pollsters was YouGuv - an internet pollster.

I think it can work... FWIW, one of my family members sent me a link to one of those outfits that "pays you to take polls" - it was virtually all product/marketing type surveys - but I did it for about a month... figured, what's the harm... so, for about a month, I spent about 20 minutes over lunch clicking through surveys on commercials, advertising campaigns, and such and then got a check (which cleared!) for $50 a month later (basically, you get 'points' for completed surveys and can then redeem at a certain threshold). What's it cost to do a legitimate phone sampling?

I could see internet-based polling legitimately working at some point... maybe not yet - but I think it's coming.
   5218. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4297142)
You gotta feel for Rasmussen on some level. His whole business probably went bankrupt. But uh, no subsidies for him.

As I said before, if you add 2 points to the Dem line for his polls you've got a pretty good polling system. His errors weren't random but largely a creation of the skew he setup. He was pretty reliable and with adjustments you could see how the election was going to go based on his polls.
   5219. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4297144)
The LA Times has a gif of how each county voted. A lot of red where people don't live, and a lot of blue where the cities and population centers are.


I'm fending off a couple of whiners at work today who point out "all that red" compared to the blue.

I know they do it for states, but I'd like to see a size representation of counties based on votes, so that (for example) Fulton County in Georgia (360,000 votes) is 40 times the size of Morgan County in Georgia (9,000 votes). If you just look at the map, the counties are (roughly) the same geographical size.
   5220. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4297145)
I know they do it for states, but I'd like to see a size representation of counties based on votes, so that (for example) Fulton County in Georgia (360,000 votes) is 40 times the size of Morgan County in Georgia (9,000 votes). If you just look at the map, the counties are (roughly) the same geographical size.


You should also try to find someone who purples it up on the county level. All of those red states are deeply purple for the most part.
   5221. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:11 PM (#4297148)
She doesn't have the skills, traits, nor desire to do it.


I'd say she's got the skills, but not the desire. She probably won't be going into politics. She probably does get first pick on what the couple does after Inauguration Day 2017.
   5222. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4297150)
I'm fending off a couple of whiners at work today who point out "all that red" compared to the blue.


Way past time to give cows the vote, dammit.
   5223. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4297151)
Here's a national map - by state - that resizes states by population...

Haven't seen a county map - but here's one from 2008 that uses brighter colors by county for population centers...

EDIT: Note that the state map above is at this site -- and they say they'll be posting county based maps once all the county data is available.

Double EDIT: Danny and I can share a coke... same site...
   5224. Danny Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4297153)
I know they do it for states, but I'd like to see a size representation of counties based on votes, so that (for example) Fulton County in Georgia (360,000 votes) is 40 times the size of Morgan County in Georgia (9,000 votes). If you just look at the map, the counties are (roughly) the same geographical size.

You can see 2008 county ones here.
   5225. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4297154)

I know they do it for states, but I'd like to see a size representation of counties based on votes, so that (for example) Fulton County in Georgia (360,000 votes) is 40 times the size of Morgan County in Georgia (9,000 votes). If you just look at the map, the counties are (roughly) the same geographical size.


CNN broke out a graphic for Ohio doing just this after Rove got the media all atwitter with his whining about the premature call of Ohio to Obama. It basically showed that of the states that still had votes coming in were large populated counties and blue while the red counties were really small.
   5226. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4297156)
Dick Morris had it last week as 325-213, which could turn out to be very close - except for the fact that he had Romney winning by that margin.

All those people should have their feet held to the fire. They should be called to explained themselves. What possessed them? Other than to generate ratings, what purpose do they think they served?

I like followup stories. I always wondered what happened to Baby Jessica or that kid who got the Malaysian caning. I like making connections, and I think the media should have a sense of history. Pronouncements and happenings should be revisited with a view to seeing if there have been long-term effects and changes.
   5227. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4297157)
Highlights from the predictions spreadsheet that was sent around yesterday:

Romney-Obama

Colorado U: 330-208
Dick Morris: 325-213
Georgey Will: 325-217
Glenn Beck: 325-217
Michael Barone: 315-223
Karl Rove: 279-259 [Rove appeared more concerned than the others]
C Roberts: 244-294
M Dowd: 235-303
Wang: 235-303
Silver: 231-307

   5228. Shredder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4297162)
Karl Rove has obviously landed on his feet with his Fox News analysis gig
Landed on his feet? Karl Rove is probably the big winner of this election cycle. How much of that sweet Koch/Adelson cash did he pocket from his SuperPac scam, and all without turning a single election. Getting paid a few million bucks to generate no results? Sounds like a pretty sweet gig to me. Tell ya what, give me a couple million bucks to do absolutely nothing and I will absolutely let everyone consider me a laughing stock as I laugh all the way to the bank. He may consider himself a lot of things; advisor, consultant, elections expert, etc. But first and foremost, the guy is a grifter. And he's VERY good at that.
   5229. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4297163)
In terms of ideology, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia are fast approaching Deep South status, while North Carolina seems headed more in the direction of Virginia.

Ideologically, TN, KY and WV are all Appalachian, and thus align with the Deep South on the issues. But they are not Deep South states, any more so than GA, AL or MS are Appalachia. It's a geographic distinction, and a real cultural distinction within the larger South itself.


True, and that's why I said "In terms of ideology". I'm not confusing Appalachia with the Delta or the Piney Woods in other respects.

----------------------------------------

Being from North Florida, I would consider it Deep South.

To that you might also add the Black Belt of eastern North Carolina, which until the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel was built, was as isolated as the Eastern Shore of Maryland used to be before their Bay Bridge arrived in 1952.

----------------------------------------

WaPo has

Barack Obama
60,193,076
Mitt Romney
57,468,587


That's 51.2% for Obama. Nate's final PV number was 50.8%. Stupid Republican bias!
   5230. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4297166)
All those people should have their feet held to the fire.


If we didn't bother doing it after the Iraq debacle why would anyone bother doing it now?
   5231. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4297167)
Landed on his feet? Karl Rove is probably the big winner of this election cycle. How much of that sweet Koch/Adelson cash did he pocket from his SuperPac scam, and all without turning a single election. Getting paid a few million bucks to generate no results? Sounds like a pretty sweet gig to me. Tell ya what, give me a couple million bucks to do absolutely nothing and I will absolutely let everyone consider me a laughing stock as I laugh all the way to the bank.

Yeah, he might consider changing his last name to Pavano.
   5232. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4297168)
Baby Jessica grew up and got married... and seems to lead a pretty normal life in Midland... though, interestingly - the two first responders: one committed suicide, the other convicted of sexually exploiting a minor.

Michael Fay, the Malaysian cane(ie?), has had a series of substance abuse problems.
   5233. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4297169)
I like followup stories. I always wondered what happened to Baby Jessica


Was that the kid who fell down the well? I heard on the radio a few years ago that she'd just gotten married, I assume their new house has city water.
   5234. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4297170)
Karl Rove is probably the big winner of this election cycle. How much of that sweet Koch/Adelson cash did he pocket from his SuperPac scam, and all without turning a single election.


####### freeloader.
   5235. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4297174)

Eisenhower: exhausted and unwell


Also he disliked Nixon. There was a famous news conference in August 1960:

Q. Mr. Mohr: We understand that the power of decision is entirely yours, Mr. President. I just wondered if you could give us an example of a major idea of his that you had adopted in that role, as the decider and final--

THE PRESIDENT. If you give me a week, I might think of one. I don't remember.
   5236. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4297176)
If we didn't bother doing it after the Iraq debacle why would anyone bother doing it now?


Yes.
   5237. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4297177)
It's amusing reading the gloating on the left here, amidst the fantasy that the election result confirmed everything they thought about the Republican Party and how people view it.

Do people not see that this is simply a pendulum?
   5238. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4297179)
Karl Rove is probably the big winner of this election cycle. How much of that sweet Koch/Adelson cash did he pocket from his SuperPac scam, and all without turning a single election.

####### freeloader.


No, Rove provided a valuable service. He raised Adelson's self esteem by making Adelson think he was going to make a difference in the election.
   5239. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4297180)
Landed on his feet? Karl Rove is probably the big winner of this election cycle. How much of that sweet Koch/Adelson cash did he pocket from his SuperPac scam, and all without turning a single election. Getting paid a few million bucks to generate no results? Sounds like a pretty sweet gig to me. Tell ya what, give me a couple million bucks to do absolutely nothing and I will absolutely let everyone consider me a laughing stock as I laugh all the way to the bank. He may consider himself a lot of things; advisor, consultant, elections expert, etc. But first and foremost, the guy is a grifter. And he's VERY good at that.


Yeah, but how long can that keep up?

I mean - sure - he probably pocketed enough just this cycle alone that he'll never need gainful employment again... setting aside that his recent employment was only 'gainful' in the bank account sense.

But - if you're a rich conservative with money to burn, are you going to write Rove another check in 2014? I mean, it just seems to me that if you're interested in giving millions to a political cause, I'd think you'd be at least smart enough to know that a better ROI would be had by simply having a helicopter dump sawbucks with little notes tied them saying "Republicans are awesome!" over various parts of the country.
   5240. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4297181)
Do people not see that this is simply a pendulum?


Do either of you know what "incontinent" means?

LIsa, don't spoil our fun.
   5241. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4297182)
Highlights from the predictions spreadsheet that was sent around yesterday:

Romney-Obama

Colorado U: 330-208
Dick Morris: 325-213
Georgey Will: 325-217
Glenn Beck: 325-217
Michael Barone: 315-223
Karl Rove: 279-259 [Rove appeared more concerned than the others]
C Roberts: 244-294
M Dowd: 235-303
Wang: 235-303
Silver: 231-307


Which means that barring a Florida recount, every one of them underestimated Obama's final total of 332.
   5242. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4297184)
Highlights from the predictions spreadsheet that was sent around yesterday:

Romney-Obama

Colorado U: 330-208
Dick Morris: 325-213
Georgey Will: 325-217
Glenn Beck: 325-217
Michael Barone: 315-223
Karl Rove: 279-259 [Rove appeared more concerned than the others]
C Roberts: 244-294
M Dowd: 235-303
Wang: 235-303
Silver: 231-307


They updated Silver's prediction based on the most likely result from his model when the election started.

203-332

That puts him tied with Daily Kos and some guy I found called Articleman as the only matches to the (current) final tally.

Edit: Oh, and Josh Putnam.

   5243. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4297187)
Being from North Florida, I would consider it Deep South.


Florida north of Orlando - the panhandle and Ocala/Kissimee areas; Jacksonville and Gainseville - still maintain "Old Florida" vibes and are thus part of the Deep South. FL is really three different states. NoFlo, Mousetown, and Miamiland. I'd actually combine NoFlo with SoGA. Basically, Tennessee bleeds across the TN/GA border along with the Appalachians, probably down to Rome and maybe Cartersville/Dahlonegha. Metro Atlanta picks up around D'gha and Cumming and extends down to Griffin (just north of Macon.)

Macon to Orlando is one culture really. The only difference between Tifton, GA and Ocala, FL is SEC loyalties.
   5244. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4297188)
Is there any other state with such a strong split? North Florida and South Florida are pretty much night and day in terms of...everything.

PA is two large cities with Appalachia in between, and on top of that, Pittsburgh is very different than Philly.
   5245. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4297189)
Nate's 313 EV that he has listed on his site is based on the probability of his simulations. It was a number that was never going to happen. It is basically a number based on the probability of Florida going to OBama as well as other non 90% and higher states going his way as well. If you were to do a straight whoever is leading the state wins the EV or whoever has the highest probability to win the states gets the EV then Silver nails the prediction since he called every single state correctly.
   5246. Danny Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4297190)
   5247. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4297191)
Missouri is also two blue edges with a lot of red in between.
   5248. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4297192)
It's amusing reading the gloating on the left here, amidst the fantasy that the election result confirmed everything they thought about the Republican Party and how people view it.

Do people not see that this is simply a pendulum?


You've only got a half point there, because for the pendulum to swing towards the GOP side is wholly based on the timing of the economy.

The basic social divisions (demographic and cultural) have pretty much swung in favor of the Dems and aren't likely to reverse themselves, while the view that the Republicans are better for the economy is wholly a product of the past four years, and evaporates when the economy improves under a Democrat. All the complaints about "big government" beyond the permanent GOP Noise Machine are 100% correlated to the prevailing economic indices. And what's the Republican backup plan?
   5249. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4297193)
They updated Silver's prediction based on the most likely result from his model when the election started.

203-332


You really can't just take the most common overall scenario. If I bet $1 on the roll of a die and get $5.94 if I win, and nothing if I lose, my projection should be a loss of a penny, not zero.

Going state-by-state and just picking to see if the winners match doesn't quite work. The model's not projecting all 50 states to be 100% or 0%, after all.

Probably best not to compare a model like this in the same rankings as guys who are simply making binary decisions. Nate's model is picking something much harder than the pundits doing that - it's like having one guy predict if I can run a mile closer to 5 minutes or 15 minutes and giving him full credit for saying no and more credit than the guy who projected me to do it in 11 minutes.

   5250. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4297195)

Do people not see that this is simply a pendulum?


Republicans will eventually reinvent themselves and start winning, but it may take a while. Democrats have won the popular vote five out of the last six elections.
   5251. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4297196)
Nate's 313 EV that he has listed on his site is based on the probability of his simulations. It was a number that was never going to happen. It is basically a number based on the probability of Florida going to OBama as well as other non 90% and higher states going his way as well. If you were to do a straight whoever is leading the state wins the EV or whoever has the highest probability to win the states gets the EV then Silver nails the prediction since he called every single state correctly.

True. The small visual disconnect comes from the fact that his "303" estimate on his website doesn't seem to incorporate the blue shading of Florida on his map. If you adjust for that, his projections are as you say, 50 for 50, and the EV total also falls perfectly into line. I wonder what Gerson and Kehoskie are saying about that.
   5252. Ron J2 Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4297198)
Well, here, the networks didn't consider that maybe their assessment of which states were swing states was wrong.


I'm prepared to bet the networks have good stats guys and that those stats guys came to the same basic conclusion Nate did. Unless there was something systemically wrong in the state level polling there were few true battleground states.

But they have an enormous incentive to pretend that things are in fact a lot closer than they are. And the stats guys face the same problems Nate did in explaining the confidence levels.
   5253. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4297199)
Missouri is also two blue edges with a lot of red in between

Doesn't the red say Missourah and the blue say Missouri?
   5254. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4297201)
Boehner: "We are willing to accept some additional revenues via tax reform."

BOOM.
   5255. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4297202)
Is there any other state with such a strong split? North Florida and South Florida are pretty much night and day in terms of...everything.


I would think so. Many states are yin and yang. In my state, Lousiana, there's a big difference between North and South Lousiana. Big, big difference. And a somewhat less difference between New Orleans-New Orleans-area LA and what is known as Acadiana--the rest of French-influenced Lousiana.
   5256. Steve Treder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4297204)
The basic social divisions (demographic and cultural) have pretty much swung in favor of the Dems and aren't likely to reverse themselves

This is a big deal. Gay marriage passed yesterday in what, 3 out of 4 state elections? And recreational pot was legalized in two other states.

I heard Howard Dean and Michael Steele interviewed today on Talk of the Nation, and both agreed that the 2012 election will be remembered as the point at which the Culture War was lost by the conservatives and the GOP that has ridden that horse for so long. This has enormous implications for the Republican Party. Failing to grasp that, and believing instead that this is just another routine election, la-dee-da, is to fail to detect a 2x4 smack to the forehead.
   5257. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4297205)
But they have an enormous incentive to pretend that things are in fact a lot closer than they are. And the stats guys face the same problems Nate did in explaining the confidence levels.

People, as a group, have an extremely poor understanding of probability and statistics.
   5258. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4297207)
Boehner: "We are willing to accept some additional revenues via tax reform."


But I was told Obama doesn't have a mandate!
   5259. spike Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4297208)
   5260. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4297210)
Also [Eisenhower] disliked Nixon. There was a famous news conference in August 1960:

Q. Mr. Mohr: We understand that the power of decision is entirely yours, Mr. President. I just wondered if you could give us an example of a major idea of his that you had adopted in that role, as the decider and final--

THE PRESIDENT. If you give me a week, I might think of one. I don't remember.


I first read that quote in an early edition of the Post that evening, while waiting for a trolley outside of Griffith Stadium after a Senators' night game, and I immediately burst out laughing. The effect of that Eisenhower quote on Nixon's much-touted "experience" claim was absolutely devastating. Eisenhower later claimed that he had just been being sarcastic, but the backtracking never really took on any traction.
   5261. Steve Treder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4297211)
I doubt I ever would have voted for him, but Eisenhower really was awesome.
   5262. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4297212)
Markos Orange Satan has his analysis of predictions up...

I missed everywhere... with the House and Senate pretty much settled, this was mine:

Obama 303 EVs (bleeding IN, NC, NE-2, and FL from his 2008) Romney 235. I feel pretty sure I'm going to be wrong about Florida, though. The popular vote will be Obama 50, Romney 49.

The Dems will pick up 5 House seats -- but we'll see about 25 House seats change hands. GOP cleans up in NC, offset by Dem delegation increases in IL... NY and PA are significant Dem House disappointments, but the Dems offset with pickups in FL and CA. Chandler (KY-6) and Hochul (NY-27) survive -- Matheson (UT-4), Bass (NH-2) and Kissell (NC-8) do not....

The Dems hold the Senate, going +1 - depending on how you count King - when it's all said and done... Flake over Carmona in AZ (open R hold), Rehberg unseats Tester (R pickup), Heller over Berkely (R hold), Fischer over Kerrey (open D, R pickup), Warren over Brown (D pickup), Donnelly over Mourdock (D pickup), Kaine over Allen (open D hold), King over Dill/Summers (open R, I pickup - will caucus D), Murphy over McMahon (Open D hold), Baldwin over Thompson (open D hold), Nelson over Mack (D hold), Heitkamp slips past Berg (open D hold). Sherrod Brown (OH), Debbie Stabenow (MI), etc win easily.

The GOP has a much better night on the gubernatorial side -- +2, with pickups in MT and NC.


Unless I get some credit for self-doubt on Florida, I missed by one state on the Pres side... but it looks like I was pretty well short on the pop vote side, too - seems like Obama may well end up around 2/2.5%.

I actually did OK on the Senate side - missed Tester, but nailed Heitkamp.

Turns out my House calls weren't actually as bad as they looked... last number I saw was D+8, but there are about a half dozen races not yet settled. I didn't post my whole sheet -- but race-by-race, I missed pretty badly. I got Bass, Kissell, a couple IL seats, a couple FL seats... but blew the other NH seat, missed two IL house pickups, only got one CA switcher right, missed Chandler, missed Matheson, missed AZ-1, I had Tierny losing in MA, and a decent number of other seats... I thought NC would be a Democratic slaughterhouse - and it was - while Illinois would be a good Dem thunderdome (and it was, but actually a lot better than I thought). In short - it's like one of those NCAA brackets where you do OK -- except you pick the wrong 12 seed, completely blow it on sweet 16 surprise teams, while the teams you have going to the final 4 lose shockers early...

I also missed MT-GOV.

   5263. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4297213)
Gay marriage passed yesterday in what, 3 out of 4 state elections?


4 for 4. Three states legalized it, one overturned a ban.
   5264. SoSH U at work Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4297214)
Indiana is three states: South of U.S. 40 is Kentucky, north of U.S. 40 is Midwestern rural, except for the counties on the lake, which are traditional Rust Belt.

   5265. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4297215)
Basic question for Dick Morris. Why the heck would people in Wisconsin or any other swing state care about Governor Christie taking a photo op with President Obama?

   5266. Danny Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4297216)
Boehner: "We are willing to accept some additional revenues via tax reform."

But I was told Obama doesn't have a mandate!

By "closing loopholes," which is the same position both he and Romney have had.
   5267. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4297217)

Bob Lefsetz on Nate Silver


11. Gay

Mr. Silver is. It’s rarely trumpeted. We now live in a post-gay era. As Chris Rock says, everybody’s got a relative who swings the other way. If you’re a hater, get over it. Just like Ms. replaced Miss, the tide has turned, gays have a seat at the table. Not that there isn’t work to be done educating the naysayers.


As far as I know I have no relative that is gay. I have uncomfirmed reports that one of my cousins is bi but I don't think anyone really knows if she has even had sex yet so nobody really knows.
   5268. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4297218)
I wonder if we'll ever hear from the UofColorado-Boulder professors again. Republicans liked to point at that model over and over again as proof of Romney's inevitability. The part that galled me the most was this:

When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.

People then said things like "It predicted all the elections since 1980!"
   5269. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4297220)
California is pretty much coastal/inland, with the costal people only going to the inland for two things. Passing though to get to Las Vegas, and Coachella.
   5270. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:50 PM (#4297222)
In my EC prediction I was also 50 for 50, but I blew my nose on the paper napkin I wrote it down on and now I can't remember what I did with it after that. Stupid premature Alzheimer's!
   5271. SoSH U at work Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4297223)

4 for 4. Three states legalized it, one overturned a ban.


Minnesota didn't overturn anything. The state merely rejected amending the state constitution, though gay marriage is still not allowed there.

For now.

   5272. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4297224)
I caved and didn't believe Obama could win Florida, so I went with 303.

TRUST IN SILVER!
   5273. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4297225)
11. Gay

Mr. Silver is. It’s rarely trumpeted. We now live in a post-gay era. As Chris Rock says, everybody’s got a relative who swings the other way. If you’re a hater, get over it. Just like Ms. replaced Miss, the tide has turned, gays have a seat at the table. Not that there isn’t work to be done educating the naysayers.



As far as I know I have no relative that is gay. I have uncomfirmed reports that one of my cousins is bi but I don't think anyone really knows if she has even had sex yet so nobody really knows.


Not that I care... or should I say, not that there's anything wrong with that... but is this true? Just curious, but I had never heard this.
   5274. Steve Treder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4297226)
4 for 4. Three states legalized it, one overturned a ban.

It is a very big deal. The complete failure of the GOP to account for the fact that the under-30s are nowhere close to being on board the anti-gay ship is already biting them in the a$$, and it will only continue to increasingly do so unless they make a fundamental change in their basic platform. The same is true in their alienation of Latinos, who voted 75 freaking percent for Obama.

What is the stat? Every month, 50,000 Latinos turn 18 in the US, something like that?

If the conservatives and the GOP think this was just a routine election, and the pendulum will just naturally swing back their way without radical adjustment, they're simply wrong.
   5275. Tripon Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4297227)
I wonder if we'll ever hear from the UofColorado-Boulder professors again. Republicans liked to point at that model over and over again as proof of Romney's inevitability


I just shook my head that they were basing it on the assumption that voters will vote Republicans because because of the Economy. Not their 'handling' of the economy, not what specific laws or regulations or stimulus they did in reponse, but just the 'economy'.

Coorilation is not causation.
   5276. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4297228)
I didn't think he would get Florida, might not still, and it looks like I might be half a point too high on the point spread.
   5277. Lassus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4297230)
Is there any other state with such a strong split? North Florida and South Florida are pretty much night and day in terms of...everything.

I used to talk to people out west who thought I was lying when I said I grew up in New York surrounded by farmland.
   5278. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4297231)
Coorilation is not causation.

Is that some new gimmick created by Coors?

don't drink that!

Why not?

The coorilation of the can hasn't kicked in yet.

Thanks, bro.
   5279. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4297233)
Coorilation is not causation.

It's that famous Rocky Mountain spring water!
   5280. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4297234)
I wonder if we'll ever hear from the UofColorado-Boulder professors again.


For me, their epic fail was the funniest. Dick Morris and Dean Chambers are simple hacks, using simple subjective measures to predict a race. Somehow someway they'll find a job. These guys are political science professors who created their own test and then failed it. That's much more embarrassing.

But hey, now we know what they were smoking.
   5281. Sweet Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4297235)
WaPo has

Barack Obama
60,193,076
Mitt Romney
57,468,587

That's 51.2% for Obama. Nate's final PV number was 50.8%. Stupid Republican bias!


Except that Nate's PVs take into account votes for someone other than Romney or Obama. He projected those votes as 0.9% of the total votes cast. I haven't seen actual figures, but assuming that 0.9% percentage is correct, it results in percentages of 50.72% Obama and 48.38% Romney. So . . . uh, that's really close to Nate's PVs.

EDIT: I'm using the latest NYT voting figures of 60,346,507 Obama and 57,558,929 Romney.
   5282. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4297236)
Heh...

I'm about a 1000 miles away, but if there's a Denver area BBTF softball game in the offing next spring, let's make sure it gets front-paged... because i'm going.
   5283. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4297237)
Minnesota didn't overturn anything. The state merely rejected amending the state constitution, though gay marriage is still not allowed there.

For now.


Ah, I misread that then. I'd still call it four out four though in favor of gay marriage.
   5284. Craig in MN Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4297239)

4 for 4. Three states legalized it, one overturned a ban.



Minnesota didn't overturn anything. The state merely rejected amending the state constitution, though gay marriage is still not allowed there.

For now.


Minnesota overturned the Constitutional definition of one man owe woman. The first state to turn down a Constitutional ban by vote. And in the process, arguably due to big turnout by young folks on the Amendment issue, won surprising margins in both houses of the Minnesota legislature when they weren't really expected to win either. It's the first time since 1990 that the Dems control all of the the Minnesota government. There's going to be a strong push to just pass Gay Marriage through the legislature this year, not just because it's the right thing to do, or because they can, but as a thank you for everyone who fought the amendment and brought the Dems to power.





   5285. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 07, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4297240)
People then said things like "It predicted all the elections since 1980!"
That was the most offended I saw Silver (in tweets) during this cycle. He pointed out, accurately, they haven't predicted ####.
   5286. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4297241)
I doubt I ever would have voted for him, but Eisenhower really was awesome.


That he was. This was noted starting in WWII, but, then the liberals (Old Liberals) tried to make hims seem irrelevant. However, his reputation has undergone a resurgency in the last couple of decades. As a number of people (not just Ambrose) have noted, he had the rare combination of being a great man and a good man.

But he knew the game was hardball. He may have been the most Machiavellian (in the best of that term) politician of the 20th century after FDR. His own son, John, in an interview said he was a perfect blend of compassion and cold-bloodedness--then he paused and corrected himself: make that 75% cold-bloodedness.
   5287. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4297242)
I like followup stories. I always wondered what happened to Baby Jessica or that kid who got the Malaysian caning. I like making connections, and I think the media should have a sense of history. Pronouncements and happenings should be revisited with a view to seeing if there have been long-term effects and changes.


My 'great' idea for such a story is to find out where the guy who threw an iceball at Giants Stadium (and had his gleeful picture plasted everywhere) ended up.

Also, Drudge is angry!!
   5288. DA Baracus Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4297243)
One of the CU professors speaks:

“The model was wrong,” Bickers conceded. “Sure, that’s a mea culpa I suppose. I’ve argued everywhere from the beginning that polls and prediction models don’t vote. This gives you the historical conditions, provides a kind of baseline for information in interpreting what might happen. In that sense, I still think it’s a useful tool. It didn’t get the correct outcome but it does give you the historical context.”
   5289. esseff Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4297244)
Sign of the times factoid: In the new Democratic House delegation, non-Hispanic white males will be a minority for the first time.
   5290. Steve Treder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4297245)
Minnesota overturned the Constitutional definition of one man owe woman. The first state to turn down a Constitutional ban by vote. And in the process, arguably due to big turnout by young folks on the Amendment issue, won surprising margins in both houses of the Minnesota legislature when they weren't really expected to win either. It's the first time since 1990 that the Dems control all of the the Minnesota government. There's going to be a strong push to just pass Gay Marriage through the legislature this year, not just because it's the right thing to do, or because they can, but as a thank you for everyone who fought the amendment and brought the Dems to power.

Think about this. This is describing a dynamic in which the Pro-Gay Lobby not only won its own ballot issue in a fairly large state, but had a meaningful coattail effect across the ballot, and can now expect the legislature to pass Gay Marriage.

That would be laughably inconceivable, what, 15 years ago? 10 years ago? 5 years ago?

The PRO-GAY LOBBY. Talking about wagging the dog.

This is a new era.
   5291. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4297247)
Do people not see that this is simply a pendulum?


I certainly see it as a pendulum.

1860 - 1930 >>> GOP
DEM <<< 1930 - 1970
1970 - 2008 >>> GOP
DEM <<< 2008 - now

Even Ross Douthat is smart enough to recognize realignment when he sees it.
   5292. Morty Causa Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4297248)
As for the Nixon assessment, Eisenhower was probably not serious, and he may have meant as off the record. At any rate, the mistake was really Nixon's and that mistake was called in Ike too late to make enough of a difference.
   5293. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4297250)

I'm about a 1000 miles away, but if there's a Denver area BBTF softball game in the offing next spring, let's make sure it gets front-paged... because i'm going.


I'm all for it, and I can house a bunch of you freeloaders from out of state too.
   5294. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4297251)
Dialing back to Steve on the last page-
Yeah, that's what's so puzzling about the never-ending push to the hard right by the GOP over the past couple of decades. It isn't just that by doing this they alienate crucial portions of the broader electorate, it's that they don't have to keep sucking up to the base the way they do. Where in the world are they afraid the social conservatives and Christian fundamentalists are going to go?
Actually, I think the power analysis of Republican office-holders is right on. They aren't irrationally worried about losing the votes of the base in a general election - they are quite logically worried about losing the votes of the base in a primary election. Look at Dick Lugar - he's been a consistent partisan vote for years, but he lost a primary just because he moderated his rhetoric. Then there are the establishment Republicans who lost primaries in NV and CO and elsewhere. And to say nothing of actually moderate Republicans like Mike Castle in DE or Arlen Specter in PA. The base has been clear - do what we say, talk like we want you to talk, or you're going to be primaried. That's how a party base can access power, and they've been impressive and effective.

The problem, of course, is that there's a level of base pressure that's productive, and a point at which it becomes counter-productive. I think it's reached clearly that point on the right. It'll be interesting to see whether the elite realization of the problem translates to different behavior in the base.
   5295. SoSH U at work Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4297252)

Ah, I misread that then. I'd still call it four out four though in favor of gay marriage.


Absolutely. And as Craig notes, it's probably the first step toward a successful effort to legalize it in the state.

Every single day brings more pro-gay marriage voters into the electorate and kills off more opponents. This is just the start, regardless what nonsense Nats Homer was spewing last night.

   5296. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4297254)
“The model was wrong,” Bickers conceded. “Sure, that’s a mea culpa I suppose. I’ve argued everywhere from the beginning that polls and prediction models don’t vote. This gives you the historical conditions, provides a kind of baseline for information in interpreting what might happen. In that sense, I still think it’s a useful tool. It didn’t get the correct outcome but it does give you the historical context.”


What a maroon!

   5297. Steve Treder Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4297255)
This was noted starting in WWII

I'm currently reading McCullough's biography of Truman, and McCullough presents an anecdote in which President Truman, meeting Eisenhower for the first time in Potsdam in 1945, bluntly offers to support Eisenhower if he should choose to run for President (as a Democrat, of course) in 1948. Eisenhower, of course, flatly says that running for President is the last thing he would ever do.

I hadn't heard that before.
   5298. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4297257)
Andy — You’ve never let up. You refused to quit. And you just did the unthinkable—you not only saved the Senate from a Republican takeover, you increased the Democratic majority!

From the bottom of my heart—thank you.


Many said we had no chance to keep the Senate, let alone gain seats. But you refused to let Karl Rove bury Democratic Senate candidates with money. And we did not only what many said was unthinkable— we did what most said was impossible.

We defied the odds and gained two Democratic Senate seats (take a look at the results below):

You elected a record number of women candidates. You elected our first openly gay Senator. You elected our first Asian American female Senator. You defeated Todd “legitimate rape” Akin and Richard “God intended pregnancy from rape” Mourdock.

If Karl Rove thought that millions of progressives couldn’t stand up to a handful of billionaires—you proved him so wrong. I am so proud. You did it.

Words can’t express how grateful I am. Thank you.

Sincerely,
Patty


I only note this generic "Thank you" note from Patty Murray of the DSCC because it reminds me of the Democrats' amazing ground game this year, as exemplified by the fact that a micro-contributor like myself (I gave less than $300 in maybe half a dozen stages) kept getting between 5 and 15 e-mails a day, right up until about 3:00 PM yesterday. That obviously doesn't carry forward automatically, but their data base is a hell of a counterweight to the Adelsons and the other billionaire and multi-millionaire leeches who form the financial base of today's GOP. Those constant solicitations could be annoying as hell, but without them I probably wouldn't have given them any money to speak of, and I strongly suspect there were millions of others just like me.
   5299. zonk Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4297260)

I certainly see it as a pendulum.

1860 - 1930 >>> GOP
DEM <<< 1930 - 1970
1970 - 2008 >>> GOP
DEM <<< 2008 - now

Even Ross Douthat is smart enough to recognize realignment when he sees it.


I think I agree... in fact, just for fun, I was listening to Dennis Miller talk to Ann Coulter for more of that dope, dope schadenfreude drug when I ran out for lunch today - they were both bemoaning the 'end of America', that the 'takers now outnumber the makers' and there's no going back, it's over, yada yada...

While I don't agree with the substance, of course, I do think that we've reached the end of the Reagan era "government is the problem". Most of those Reaganauts are now greying and the kids clearly have a different view of government.

I'm not saying that they embrace 'big government', I'm not saying people have become 'dependent' on government, I'm just saying that I see a fundamental shift where I think there IS a (growing) plurality, at least, of Americans who see government as less a "necessary evil" and increasingly, something they expect to perform certain functions and perform them moderately, at least, well.

I think the arguments are now/soon to be around the margins... the wisdom of things like Medicare or Social Security - 'entitlements' - are now set in stone. The arguments around the margins of how to pay for these things, what they should cover, etc.
   5300. Misirlou has S.C.M.O.D.S Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4297261)
Is there any other state with such a strong split? North Florida and South Florida are pretty much night and day in terms of...everything.


In addition to those mentioned, Washington is divided by the Cascades in more ways than one. And Illinois is Chicago and rednecks. Growing up in Chicago, we used to say "The South begins at Kankakee."
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