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It's also funny what he says here, without mentioning how Nate manages to adjust for the sort of biases he's talking about:
How do you figure that? If I only count states Obama won by more than 4 points, he still wins the EC.
East Texas is very much like West Louisiana. The twang is even similar, and just as Cajuns invaded southwest Louisiana (the Lake Charles area), that invasion encroaches into southeast Texas, such as Orange, Beaumont, Port Arthur. And in the north part of both states, well, just remember that Joe Bob Briggs was just as at home in the Shreveport-Bossier City movie drive-ins as he was in the Dallas-Fort Worth ones.
Barack Obama
60,193,076
Mitt Romney
57,468,587
Dean Chambers was calling out Rasmussen.
Ideologically, TN, KY and WV are all Appalachian, and thus align with the Deep South on the issues. But they are not Deep South states, any more so than GA, AL or MS are Appalachia. It's a geographic distinction, and a real cultural distinction within the larger South itself.
Deep South is where King Cotton ruled. You can't grow cotton in the mountains. The cultural capitols of the Deep South are Charleston, SC; Savannah, GA; and Pearl, MS. Appalachia has no cultural capitols, to speak of. The difference between TN, KY, WV (and northern AL and sections of AR) is the difference between old southern gentility - plantation owners; gentlemen farmers - and rednecks and hillbillies. The former is descended from English aristocracy. The latter is descended from Scot-Irish immigrants, beginning with indentured servants and prisoner colony members sent out of debtor's prison to settle GA.
Only two of these were blessed with inclusion at RCP.
All of these were included at RCP.
Agreed. The closer you are to Old Man River, the closer you are to King Cotton, the closer you are to the Heart of the South. The further west you go into cattle and cowboy territory, the more Texas becomes Texas.
Texas is really friggin' big. It is really something like five distinct states.
Dick Morris had it last week as 325-213, which could turn out to be very close - except for the fact that he had Romney winning by that margin.
Romney projected Romney wins in OH, PA, FL, WI, MN, plus VA and NC.
Perhaps to demonstrate his objectivity, though, he did toss Obama a bone with NV.
Is there any other state with such a strong split? North Florida and South Florida are pretty much night and day in terms of...everything.
Interesting to note that one of the preliminary 'better' pollsters was YouGuv - an internet pollster.
I think it can work... FWIW, one of my family members sent me a link to one of those outfits that "pays you to take polls" - it was virtually all product/marketing type surveys - but I did it for about a month... figured, what's the harm... so, for about a month, I spent about 20 minutes over lunch clicking through surveys on commercials, advertising campaigns, and such and then got a check (which cleared!) for $50 a month later (basically, you get 'points' for completed surveys and can then redeem at a certain threshold). What's it cost to do a legitimate phone sampling?
I could see internet-based polling legitimately working at some point... maybe not yet - but I think it's coming.
As I said before, if you add 2 points to the Dem line for his polls you've got a pretty good polling system. His errors weren't random but largely a creation of the skew he setup. He was pretty reliable and with adjustments you could see how the election was going to go based on his polls.
I'm fending off a couple of whiners at work today who point out "all that red" compared to the blue.
I know they do it for states, but I'd like to see a size representation of counties based on votes, so that (for example) Fulton County in Georgia (360,000 votes) is 40 times the size of Morgan County in Georgia (9,000 votes). If you just look at the map, the counties are (roughly) the same geographical size.
You should also try to find someone who purples it up on the county level. All of those red states are deeply purple for the most part.
I'd say she's got the skills, but not the desire. She probably won't be going into politics. She probably does get first pick on what the couple does after Inauguration Day 2017.
Way past time to give cows the vote, dammit.
Haven't seen a county map - but here's one from 2008 that uses brighter colors by county for population centers...
EDIT: Note that the state map above is at this site -- and they say they'll be posting county based maps once all the county data is available.
Double EDIT: Danny and I can share a coke... same site...
You can see 2008 county ones here.
I know they do it for states, but I'd like to see a size representation of counties based on votes, so that (for example) Fulton County in Georgia (360,000 votes) is 40 times the size of Morgan County in Georgia (9,000 votes). If you just look at the map, the counties are (roughly) the same geographical size.
CNN broke out a graphic for Ohio doing just this after Rove got the media all atwitter with his whining about the premature call of Ohio to Obama. It basically showed that of the states that still had votes coming in were large populated counties and blue while the red counties were really small.
All those people should have their feet held to the fire. They should be called to explained themselves. What possessed them? Other than to generate ratings, what purpose do they think they served?
I like followup stories. I always wondered what happened to Baby Jessica or that kid who got the Malaysian caning. I like making connections, and I think the media should have a sense of history. Pronouncements and happenings should be revisited with a view to seeing if there have been long-term effects and changes.
Romney-Obama
Colorado U: 330-208
Dick Morris: 325-213
Georgey Will: 325-217
Glenn Beck: 325-217
Michael Barone: 315-223
Karl Rove: 279-259 [Rove appeared more concerned than the others]
C Roberts: 244-294
M Dowd: 235-303
Wang: 235-303
Silver: 231-307
Ideologically, TN, KY and WV are all Appalachian, and thus align with the Deep South on the issues. But they are not Deep South states, any more so than GA, AL or MS are Appalachia. It's a geographic distinction, and a real cultural distinction within the larger South itself.
True, and that's why I said "In terms of ideology". I'm not confusing Appalachia with the Delta or the Piney Woods in other respects.
----------------------------------------
Being from North Florida, I would consider it Deep South.
To that you might also add the Black Belt of eastern North Carolina, which until the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel was built, was as isolated as the Eastern Shore of Maryland used to be before their Bay Bridge arrived in 1952.
----------------------------------------
WaPo has
Barack Obama
60,193,076
Mitt Romney
57,468,587
That's 51.2% for Obama. Nate's final PV number was 50.8%. Stupid Republican bias!
If we didn't bother doing it after the Iraq debacle why would anyone bother doing it now?
Yeah, he might consider changing his last name to Pavano.
Michael Fay, the Malaysian cane(ie?), has had a series of substance abuse problems.
Was that the kid who fell down the well? I heard on the radio a few years ago that she'd just gotten married, I assume their new house has city water.
####### freeloader.
Also he disliked Nixon. There was a famous news conference in August 1960:
Yes.
Do people not see that this is simply a pendulum?
No, Rove provided a valuable service. He raised Adelson's self esteem by making Adelson think he was going to make a difference in the election.
Yeah, but how long can that keep up?
I mean - sure - he probably pocketed enough just this cycle alone that he'll never need gainful employment again... setting aside that his recent employment was only 'gainful' in the bank account sense.
But - if you're a rich conservative with money to burn, are you going to write Rove another check in 2014? I mean, it just seems to me that if you're interested in giving millions to a political cause, I'd think you'd be at least smart enough to know that a better ROI would be had by simply having a helicopter dump sawbucks with little notes tied them saying "Republicans are awesome!" over various parts of the country.
Do either of you know what "incontinent" means?
LIsa, don't spoil our fun.
Romney-Obama
Colorado U: 330-208
Dick Morris: 325-213
Georgey Will: 325-217
Glenn Beck: 325-217
Michael Barone: 315-223
Karl Rove: 279-259 [Rove appeared more concerned than the others]
C Roberts: 244-294
M Dowd: 235-303
Wang: 235-303
Silver: 231-307
Which means that barring a Florida recount, every one of them underestimated Obama's final total of 332.
They updated Silver's prediction based on the most likely result from his model when the election started.
203-332
That puts him tied with Daily Kos and some guy I found called Articleman as the only matches to the (current) final tally.
Edit: Oh, and Josh Putnam.
Florida north of Orlando - the panhandle and Ocala/Kissimee areas; Jacksonville and Gainseville - still maintain "Old Florida" vibes and are thus part of the Deep South. FL is really three different states. NoFlo, Mousetown, and Miamiland. I'd actually combine NoFlo with SoGA. Basically, Tennessee bleeds across the TN/GA border along with the Appalachians, probably down to Rome and maybe Cartersville/Dahlonegha. Metro Atlanta picks up around D'gha and Cumming and extends down to Griffin (just north of Macon.)
Macon to Orlando is one culture really. The only difference between Tifton, GA and Ocala, FL is SEC loyalties.
PA is two large cities with Appalachia in between, and on top of that, Pittsburgh is very different than Philly.
Do people not see that this is simply a pendulum?
You've only got a half point there, because for the pendulum to swing towards the GOP side is wholly based on the timing of the economy.
The basic social divisions (demographic and cultural) have pretty much swung in favor of the Dems and aren't likely to reverse themselves, while the view that the Republicans are better for the economy is wholly a product of the past four years, and evaporates when the economy improves under a Democrat. All the complaints about "big government" beyond the permanent GOP Noise Machine are 100% correlated to the prevailing economic indices. And what's the Republican backup plan?
203-332
You really can't just take the most common overall scenario. If I bet $1 on the roll of a die and get $5.94 if I win, and nothing if I lose, my projection should be a loss of a penny, not zero.
Going state-by-state and just picking to see if the winners match doesn't quite work. The model's not projecting all 50 states to be 100% or 0%, after all.
Probably best not to compare a model like this in the same rankings as guys who are simply making binary decisions. Nate's model is picking something much harder than the pundits doing that - it's like having one guy predict if I can run a mile closer to 5 minutes or 15 minutes and giving him full credit for saying no and more credit than the guy who projected me to do it in 11 minutes.
Republicans will eventually reinvent themselves and start winning, but it may take a while. Democrats have won the popular vote five out of the last six elections.
True. The small visual disconnect comes from the fact that his "303" estimate on his website doesn't seem to incorporate the blue shading of Florida on his map. If you adjust for that, his projections are as you say, 50 for 50, and the EV total also falls perfectly into line. I wonder what Gerson and Kehoskie are saying about that.
I'm prepared to bet the networks have good stats guys and that those stats guys came to the same basic conclusion Nate did. Unless there was something systemically wrong in the state level polling there were few true battleground states.
But they have an enormous incentive to pretend that things are in fact a lot closer than they are. And the stats guys face the same problems Nate did in explaining the confidence levels.
Doesn't the red say Missourah and the blue say Missouri?
BOOM.
I would think so. Many states are yin and yang. In my state, Lousiana, there's a big difference between North and South Lousiana. Big, big difference. And a somewhat less difference between New Orleans-New Orleans-area LA and what is known as Acadiana--the rest of French-influenced Lousiana.
This is a big deal. Gay marriage passed yesterday in what, 3 out of 4 state elections? And recreational pot was legalized in two other states.
I heard Howard Dean and Michael Steele interviewed today on Talk of the Nation, and both agreed that the 2012 election will be remembered as the point at which the Culture War was lost by the conservatives and the GOP that has ridden that horse for so long. This has enormous implications for the Republican Party. Failing to grasp that, and believing instead that this is just another routine election, la-dee-da, is to fail to detect a 2x4 smack to the forehead.
People, as a group, have an extremely poor understanding of probability and statistics.
But I was told Obama doesn't have a mandate!
I first read that quote in an early edition of the Post that evening, while waiting for a trolley outside of Griffith Stadium after a Senators' night game, and I immediately burst out laughing. The effect of that Eisenhower quote on Nixon's much-touted "experience" claim was absolutely devastating. Eisenhower later claimed that he had just been being sarcastic, but the backtracking never really took on any traction.
I missed everywhere... with the House and Senate pretty much settled, this was mine:
Unless I get some credit for self-doubt on Florida, I missed by one state on the Pres side... but it looks like I was pretty well short on the pop vote side, too - seems like Obama may well end up around 2/2.5%.
I actually did OK on the Senate side - missed Tester, but nailed Heitkamp.
Turns out my House calls weren't actually as bad as they looked... last number I saw was D+8, but there are about a half dozen races not yet settled. I didn't post my whole sheet -- but race-by-race, I missed pretty badly. I got Bass, Kissell, a couple IL seats, a couple FL seats... but blew the other NH seat, missed two IL house pickups, only got one CA switcher right, missed Chandler, missed Matheson, missed AZ-1, I had Tierny losing in MA, and a decent number of other seats... I thought NC would be a Democratic slaughterhouse - and it was - while Illinois would be a good Dem thunderdome (and it was, but actually a lot better than I thought). In short - it's like one of those NCAA brackets where you do OK -- except you pick the wrong 12 seed, completely blow it on sweet 16 surprise teams, while the teams you have going to the final 4 lose shockers early...
I also missed MT-GOV.
4 for 4. Three states legalized it, one overturned a ban.
By "closing loopholes," which is the same position both he and Romney have had.
Bob Lefsetz on Nate Silver
As far as I know I have no relative that is gay. I have uncomfirmed reports that one of my cousins is bi but I don't think anyone really knows if she has even had sex yet so nobody really knows.
When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.
People then said things like "It predicted all the elections since 1980!"
Minnesota didn't overturn anything. The state merely rejected amending the state constitution, though gay marriage is still not allowed there.
For now.
TRUST IN SILVER!
Not that I care... or should I say, not that there's anything wrong with that... but is this true? Just curious, but I had never heard this.
It is a very big deal. The complete failure of the GOP to account for the fact that the under-30s are nowhere close to being on board the anti-gay ship is already biting them in the a$$, and it will only continue to increasingly do so unless they make a fundamental change in their basic platform. The same is true in their alienation of Latinos, who voted 75 freaking percent for Obama.
What is the stat? Every month, 50,000 Latinos turn 18 in the US, something like that?
If the conservatives and the GOP think this was just a routine election, and the pendulum will just naturally swing back their way without radical adjustment, they're simply wrong.
I just shook my head that they were basing it on the assumption that voters will vote Republicans because because of the Economy. Not their 'handling' of the economy, not what specific laws or regulations or stimulus they did in reponse, but just the 'economy'.
Coorilation is not causation.
I used to talk to people out west who thought I was lying when I said I grew up in New York surrounded by farmland.
Is that some new gimmick created by Coors?
don't drink that!
Why not?
The coorilation of the can hasn't kicked in yet.
Thanks, bro.
It's that famous Rocky Mountain spring water!
For me, their epic fail was the funniest. Dick Morris and Dean Chambers are simple hacks, using simple subjective measures to predict a race. Somehow someway they'll find a job. These guys are political science professors who created their own test and then failed it. That's much more embarrassing.
But hey, now we know what they were smoking.
Barack Obama
60,193,076
Mitt Romney
57,468,587
That's 51.2% for Obama. Nate's final PV number was 50.8%. Stupid Republican bias!
Except that Nate's PVs take into account votes for someone other than Romney or Obama. He projected those votes as 0.9% of the total votes cast. I haven't seen actual figures, but assuming that 0.9% percentage is correct, it results in percentages of 50.72% Obama and 48.38% Romney. So . . . uh, that's really close to Nate's PVs.
EDIT: I'm using the latest NYT voting figures of 60,346,507 Obama and 57,558,929 Romney.
I'm about a 1000 miles away, but if there's a Denver area BBTF softball game in the offing next spring, let's make sure it gets front-paged... because i'm going.
Ah, I misread that then. I'd still call it four out four though in favor of gay marriage.
Minnesota overturned the Constitutional definition of one man owe woman. The first state to turn down a Constitutional ban by vote. And in the process, arguably due to big turnout by young folks on the Amendment issue, won surprising margins in both houses of the Minnesota legislature when they weren't really expected to win either. It's the first time since 1990 that the Dems control all of the the Minnesota government. There's going to be a strong push to just pass Gay Marriage through the legislature this year, not just because it's the right thing to do, or because they can, but as a thank you for everyone who fought the amendment and brought the Dems to power.
That he was. This was noted starting in WWII, but, then the liberals (Old Liberals) tried to make hims seem irrelevant. However, his reputation has undergone a resurgency in the last couple of decades. As a number of people (not just Ambrose) have noted, he had the rare combination of being a great man and a good man.
But he knew the game was hardball. He may have been the most Machiavellian (in the best of that term) politician of the 20th century after FDR. His own son, John, in an interview said he was a perfect blend of compassion and cold-bloodedness--then he paused and corrected himself: make that 75% cold-bloodedness.
My 'great' idea for such a story is to find out where the guy who threw an iceball at Giants Stadium (and had his gleeful picture plasted everywhere) ended up.
Also, Drudge is angry!!
Think about this. This is describing a dynamic in which the Pro-Gay Lobby not only won its own ballot issue in a fairly large state, but had a meaningful coattail effect across the ballot, and can now expect the legislature to pass Gay Marriage.
That would be laughably inconceivable, what, 15 years ago? 10 years ago? 5 years ago?
The PRO-GAY LOBBY. Talking about wagging the dog.
This is a new era.
I certainly see it as a pendulum.
1860 - 1930 >>> GOP
DEM <<< 1930 - 1970
1970 - 2008 >>> GOP
DEM <<< 2008 - now
Even Ross Douthat is smart enough to recognize realignment when he sees it.
I'm all for it, and I can house a bunch of you freeloaders from out of state too.
The problem, of course, is that there's a level of base pressure that's productive, and a point at which it becomes counter-productive. I think it's reached clearly that point on the right. It'll be interesting to see whether the elite realization of the problem translates to different behavior in the base.
Absolutely. And as Craig notes, it's probably the first step toward a successful effort to legalize it in the state.
Every single day brings more pro-gay marriage voters into the electorate and kills off more opponents. This is just the start, regardless what nonsense Nats Homer was spewing last night.
What a maroon!
I'm currently reading McCullough's biography of Truman, and McCullough presents an anecdote in which President Truman, meeting Eisenhower for the first time in Potsdam in 1945, bluntly offers to support Eisenhower if he should choose to run for President (as a Democrat, of course) in 1948. Eisenhower, of course, flatly says that running for President is the last thing he would ever do.
I hadn't heard that before.
I only note this generic "Thank you" note from Patty Murray of the DSCC because it reminds me of the Democrats' amazing ground game this year, as exemplified by the fact that a micro-contributor like myself (I gave less than $300 in maybe half a dozen stages) kept getting between 5 and 15 e-mails a day, right up until about 3:00 PM yesterday. That obviously doesn't carry forward automatically, but their data base is a hell of a counterweight to the Adelsons and the other billionaire and multi-millionaire leeches who form the financial base of today's GOP. Those constant solicitations could be annoying as hell, but without them I probably wouldn't have given them any money to speak of, and I strongly suspect there were millions of others just like me.
I think I agree... in fact, just for fun, I was listening to Dennis Miller talk to Ann Coulter for more of that dope, dope schadenfreude drug when I ran out for lunch today - they were both bemoaning the 'end of America', that the 'takers now outnumber the makers' and there's no going back, it's over, yada yada...
While I don't agree with the substance, of course, I do think that we've reached the end of the Reagan era "government is the problem". Most of those Reaganauts are now greying and the kids clearly have a different view of government.
I'm not saying that they embrace 'big government', I'm not saying people have become 'dependent' on government, I'm just saying that I see a fundamental shift where I think there IS a (growing) plurality, at least, of Americans who see government as less a "necessary evil" and increasingly, something they expect to perform certain functions and perform them moderately, at least, well.
I think the arguments are now/soon to be around the margins... the wisdom of things like Medicare or Social Security - 'entitlements' - are now set in stone. The arguments around the margins of how to pay for these things, what they should cover, etc.
In addition to those mentioned, Washington is divided by the Cascades in more ways than one. And Illinois is Chicago and rednecks. Growing up in Chicago, we used to say "The South begins at Kankakee."
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