|
|
|
|
Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
|
Support BBTF
Thanks to Francis for his generous support.
Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
Newsblog: Barry Bonds: Detroit Tigers' Miguel Cabrera 'the best' ... but not better than me (55 - 10:10pm, May 21)Last: LassusNewsblog: [OTP-May] Politico: Congressional baseball game, May 1, 1926 (3820 - 10:09pm, May 21)Last:  Bitter Mouse is a genre addictNewsblog: OMNICHATTER for MAY 21, 2013 (53 - 10:06pm, May 21)Last: Good cripple hitterNewsblog: OT: NBA Monthly Thread - May 2013 (1017 - 10:03pm, May 21)Last:  SpiveyNewsblog: Posnanski: Jeff Francoeur and ANT (49 - 9:52pm, May 21)Last: Charlie ONewsblog: Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 5-21-2013 (21 - 9:47pm, May 21)Last: Der_KNewsblog: OT: The Soccer Thread, May 2013 (1047 - 9:38pm, May 21)Last:  J. SosaNewsblog: JM Catellier: Is Pedro Martinez a First Ballot Hall of Famer? (119 - 9:28pm, May 21)Last:  Never Give an Inge (Dave)Newsblog: White Sox Ace Chris Sale Eats and Eats and Eats Without Gaining Any Weight (70 - 9:22pm, May 21)Last: bigboy1234Newsblog: Yanks, Manchester City awarded MLS expansion team (19 - 9:18pm, May 21)Last: CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the ApolloNewsblog: SB Nation: Five lost scouting reports (10 - 8:50pm, May 21)Last: RMc and His Roster of RubbishNewsblog: USA Today: “Diamondbacks’ Pat Corbin continues dominance vs. Rockies” (1 - 7:42pm, May 21)Last: ShoeGritNewsblog: WaPo | Ryan Mattheus breaks throwing hand punching a locker, adds to bullpen disarray (15 - 7:39pm, May 21)Last: John DiFool2Newsblog: Rare Feat Not Done Since Pete Rose (6 - 7:29pm, May 21)Last: esseffNewsblog: Living up to expectorations: The Alex Sanabia spitball clip (6 - 5:42pm, May 21)Last: Perry
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Karl Rove should get a prescription from Charles Krauthammer.
Slow clap
It's funny to me what people on both sides have taken from this. Democrats feel it is overwhelming support for their ideas and an overwhelming rejection of Republican/conservative ideas. Republicans feel that Obama "suppressed the vote" and thus are in denial about how many people really do support Obama's policies.
Look: The country is basically split down the middle right now, for all practical purposes. Sometimes the balance tips to Democrats, sometimes it tips to Republicans. Denying this seems silly.
EDITed to state what I wanted more clearly.
So... was this not reasonable? Should he not have done that?
Well, obviously it depends on whether or not he knew that it was frowned upon.
For those that have not read the source article it is ... something. It doesn't at all reflect the GOP or really anyone or anything, except some dude and his internet friends that I feel kind of bad for (for whom I feel bad? Anyway).
But it is interesting reading.
EDIT: And I like how it is some terrible fate to be unfriended by this dude. Breaking news they probably have you on ignore by this point.
*Murder, yes. Ordering the assasination of a 16 year old American is conspiricy to murder. You can't even hide behind 'war crimes' with that. He's got a kill list and he told people to kill 16 year old Abdulrahman al-Awlaki. That is not collateral damage or a war-time casualty. That's murder of a 16 year old whose only crime was to be the son of a man killed two weeks before he was.
Don't know if will be the "best" thing, but it would be a very good thing. The Republicans can't just sit back status quo. And we know they won't, at least in WI. :)
This is a classic Kehoskie red herring, by the way. Robert Byrd has nothing whatsoever to do with the current Democratic Party of today - he's DEAD. His alignment with the Klan from FIFTY YEARS AGO is even less relevant. Joe is attempting to equate a dead Dem Senator from 50 years ago with the GOP as it behaves today. It's classic false equivalency and classic Joe spin.
Also, have you personally spent all day working on a cure for cancer? If not, shame on you. I would have but I have been busy working on world peace, and am typing this while engaged in a sit-in protesting war and violence.
Dale, can I have a link or links to the murder story? I suspect we could argue successfully that virtually every president has been a murderer or committed atrocities.
I can't really answer this question without delving into conceptual speak on what is murder, natural verus man's law, and what is the role of someone in the office of president (as well as the nature of war, the moral difference between ordering high altitude bombings and drone strikes, and so on).
Short answer - I reject the basic premise of the question, but even if I accepted it I sincerely doubt it.
EDIT: Fixed horrifying typos.
BTW I don't believe for a second that Dondero represents anything more than the fringe of a fringe. But my wife got her degree in anthropology, and whenever I read rants like that I immediately start imagining I've discovered some long lost island where the people worship a decaying bronze statue of Henry Ford. There are some people in life who exist primarily to amuse the rest of us**, and this Dondero character is definitely one of them.
**at least as long as he remains at a safe distance
I agree on the second part. But the notion that Obama suppressed votes is simply batshit crazy.
I'm more outraged by the fact that no one's discussing Maicer Izturis' 3 year, $9 million deal with the Blue Jays. Priorities people!
It certainly doesn't seem very Christian, not that the term really means anything anymore.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/24/robert-gibbs-anwar-al-awlaki_n_2012438.html
The more I learn about Human genetics, the more this keeps me up at night. People - all people -- have inherent genetic deficiencies. A couple thousand, according to current estimates. "Races" and "Ethnicities" - while not a particular robust genetic group do share many chunks of inherited DNA (haplotypes) - and these specific haplotypes ARE (and will continue to be) associated with specific genetic deficiencies (as well as advantages!).
For example, I was at a seminar yesterday where a specific "defect" in a gene/gene region was strongly prevalent in Mexicans and Mexican Americans and highly associated with increased risk of Type II Diabetes. This little chunk of DNA is apparently Neaderthal in origin (Mexicans/Amerindians BTW have no more or less "Neanderthal DNA" than anyone else, they just got stuck with a "bad" chunk).
So, big deal - we have know for years that Diabetes varies based on ethnic groups. No one other than health insurance companies (I think illegally) discriminate based on it.
But that's a specific, very common disease. Not something like jumping ability. Or some kind of intellectual capability (not to get into IQ testing again... but obviously components of intelligence and reasoning, spatial relationships -- all types of intellect -- have a biological basis and it's essentially guaranteed that there are genetic components to this.
That is going to cause some trouble in the next 20 years. But perhaps it provides it's own solution. In that, to biologists, there really aren't any "races". There are just haplotypes and alleles and phenotypes. And skin color (and to a lesser extent, facial structure) just HAPPENS to be the way we sort other humans visually. But it's really quite a meanlingless distinction (unless you are talking about UV resistance and vitamin D dependence).
Yes.
Yes.
This is what we have been discussing, or it is a spin on the demographic/identity argument we are having. Can it be a quick change? I am not convinced it can be, and in the short run those changes might hurt the GOP and its ability to compete in the next election.
As much as the democrats won by this election (we got more House votes than the GOP did, but not as effectively spread so didn't win the House), we had a black guy at the head of the ticket and the economy is pretty bad (but looking better). If we can win under those circumstances and trends are in our favor I think some optimism is in order for the future.
"Perhaps?" I think the jury is back on that one.
This is why liberals often tune out Kevin Drum his David Brooks from the left routine. There's little value in stating what everyone already agrees too.
1. Everyone agrees we need to address long-term deficit reduction.
2. Everyone agrees we need entitlement reform.
1a. Some folks believe, rightly in my opinion, that the danger presented by debt/deficits is massively overstated, and point to the fact that bonds are still beloved investment opportunities. The free market doesn't seem terribly concerned that the US is going to "go Greek" anytime soon.
1b. As such, we believe that addressing the recession and unemployment should take precedent over straight debt concerns.
2a. Entitlement reform should not be confused with the Ryan/Randian desire to eliminate the safety net altogether.
HW, this also surprised me, though after 2008 I suppose we should have seen it coming. The 2012 Republican primary was like an old Democratic primary.
Geez, this sort of stuff, I've just never gotten... I mean - this is one area where I suppose neither left nor right has a monopoly - I have a conservative uncle who won't even acknowledge me at family gatherings, which is weird, because we've only had one political discussion and I (don't think at least) it got all that heated. I've been informed that this is intentional because of my politics.
On the other hand, I have a liberal friend who is extremely estranged from her parents... although, in her defense - she's a lesbian and her parents have made it clear that her partner of 7 years is not welcome at their home nor do they wish to see her if/when they visit, which, since they live together, means her parents don't visit. But - you don't have to look far to find similar instances where the issue doesn't have the same manner of personal engagement.
* Too much in this case being at all. Sure I'll chip in to hire a hooker for him, but I draw the line there.
Awesome. Just awesome.
But it's OK to hammer Romney for something he's never done, ever?
***
PPP wasn't able to accurately gauge the electorate. PPP generally overestimated Dem turnout by a point or two in about half the swing states, and it underestimated Dem turnout by a point or two in the others. Averaged together, they were accurate, but not so on the individual level. Rasmussen's numbers are getting bashed, but he was consistently GOP+2 almost everywhere, so you could at least use his numbers as a baseline
It bugs me that I do NOT do this. I mean, at least not DIRECTLY.
Families are funny beasts.
1. The assumption that 2012 was going to look like the *mid-term* of 2010 rather than the *general* of 2008 is so flawed that it begs the question of basic competence from the Romney people.
2. You could have seen this coming and doubled down on GOTV efforts if you hadn't ignored completely the polling that said "the 2012 electorate is looking a LOT like 2008, man." But you chose to deny the results reality was handing you and make up excuses as to why your preferred reality was *really true.*
3. The fact that you can't imagine what might have driven African American turnout in 2012 is dumbfounding. If you want a sure-fire way of increasing turnout, even over and above the turnout for the historic election of the first AA president, spend the next four years doing everything in your power to deligitamize that president and his election. Dumbasses.
Someone hammering him for being President?
And I presume her obvious reply is "Oh, you're so sexy! Sleep with me! Sleep with me now! Take me!" as she rips open her shirt.
He must get So. Many. Girls.
I also think HW's is correct in identifying absolutism as a bigger issue for the right than a lack of diversity - but they're both things they need to address. Quickly.
Liberals giving away free stuff. Never ends.
Andrew Jackson says hello.
...which Nate Silver did by adjusting the results from Rasmussen, and you ROASTED him for it.
Harsher sentencing for crack cocaine was the result of Democratic legislation in the weeks after Len Bias died, while "stop and frisk" is the policy of a liberal mayor who endorsed Obama.
If your two best examples of institutional racism are Dem policies or policies of Dems in "independent" clothing, then maybe (1) there isn't as much racism in the U.S. as alleged, and (2) fingers shouldn't be so easily pointed at the GOP.
Just a thought.
Of course the US will by and large be fine, no matter what happens. Bangladesh one the other hand ...
So I am not sure how adapting to climate change is going to work out for some of the rest of the world. And selfishly I think the US is better off if the rest of the world is not dealing with climate change refugees and other such nonsense. That said in many respects it is too late to avoid everything, but it is not too late to get started.
Huh? I have no idea what Nate did with Rasmussen's numbers, and neither do you. To the extent I "ROASTED" Nate, it was for claiming false precision in areas and in predictions that could not be precise.
If anyone truly believes Obama's one-point wins in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida could be predicted to four-decimal-point precision some 90 days in advance, they're nuts. For all we know, those slim victories were the result of Hurricane Sandy, which wasn't predicted by Nate's model at all.
Was this before or after Massa Buckley let him into the Big House?
I agree with all of this.
i don't think anyone thinks it's a good idea if a country is decimated by some form of environmental disaster. it's a global economy. the impact will be felt.
if i was a true opportunist i would be investing in companies that are developing means to help countries mitigate or manage the impact of climate change.
I've been saying it for a little while, but I voted Obama because he is a net positive influence on the country. He probably believes that expanded drone strikes are necessary. And for all we know, he's right. It seems like an ugly choice: to not kill likely members of Al Quaeda may mean to embolden them. But it's still awful, and a black mark on him for not finding a better way than killing an American citizen who had committed no crimes.
Dog whistle!
Odd that so many New York liberals are still driving cars that run on gas; one would have thought this problem was self-correcting due to the fact that liberals all claim to want to drive electric or gerbil-powered cars.
But one heat-of-the-moment internet crack about an umpire's kids and cancer and I'm disqualified forever! Life is so unfair.
One way to equalize the sentences for powdered and rock cocaine in federal cases would be for President Obama to use his power to pardon and commute sentences.
But his record on pardons and commutations has been abysmal. The only President worse, in history, was GWB.
There's really no excuse - it's something he could do today, if he chose to.
Some Dems thought he'd get better after he was re-elected, but I wouldn't bet on it. It just doesn't seem that important to him.
This is fascinating stuff (to me anyway), and I've tried to steer a few conversations here in that direction, but most people don't seem very interested.
I think we're entering the early stages of this scenario right now; cheap labor from immigration and globalization is helping to stave off automation in some areas, but machines are getting cheaper and better all the time. Keep in mind that from the perspective of most corporations, employees suck; they slack off, get hurt, hurt others, sexually harass one other, miss work because of their kids and generally act like dumbasses. The only reasons not to automate whenever possible are costs and capabilities.
There are fewer and fewer unskilled and semi-skilled jobs out there, and those that remain are increasingly filled with cheap immigrant labor. Google has already successfully demonstrated that cars can be programmed to drive themselves autonomously; within 10 years, I expect that technology to be taking jobs away from truck drivers and cabbies.
The jobs that remain will require specialized skills, superior reading comprehension/reasoning/communication abilities, or some combination of both. A good chunk of the population is not smart enough to handle those jobs, and the traditional jobs those people would ordinarily take will be mostly gone.
I don't know that there is a good answer to any of this, at least not until/unless we get really lucky and achieve a post-scarcity society. The easiest solution is probably to do more or less what we've been doing. Provide cheap government housing in undesireable locations, offer food assistance/welfare sufficient to keep them fed/drunk, and have everybody who can afford it move far away from "those people". Maybe try to direct the recipients energies into something non-harmful, where their desire to accumulate status and meaning could be sublimated; perhaps a sort of universal MMOG for people with absolutely nothing better to do. Essentially paying 40% of the population to play futuristic WOW/Farmville and stay out of trouble.
Of course I do. He explained it all the time with regards to various polls.
He stated that Rasmussen "leaned" Republican, and therefore he weighted how he took those numbers from Rasmussen.
It's one of those things that made Silver's aggregation different from RCP (plus using more polls).
Or use public transit. Which, if I'm not mistaken a lot of them do...when it isn't flooded.
gee, what kind of guy do you think i am?
of course i also think water will become quite the market as things become more arid in various regions.
One side sez that we can't raise taxes on the wealthy (i.e., self-titled "job creators") because that will kill jobs. I get the investment/jobs cycle more or less. But we've had 7-8 years of tax cuts on the wealthy (and everyone else, sure) and did those cuts "create jobs"? Or did it enable folks to go on more exotic golf trips and buy bigger Mercedes? Or did it get invested and we would have 10-12% or worse "official" unemployment otherwise?
The whole "Job Creator" thing is another discussion. If Lowe's drove Builder's Square out of business, did they really create any jobs? (Again, I get that efficieny is good).
If the Buggy Whip manufacturer switched to Automobile cranks (both start modes of transportation, right?) and produce three times as many per worker but only need twice the number of cranks, that's creative destruction and that is good. Is that person a "Job Destroyer"?
And one last question, why can't we be rebuilding infrastructure as an economic stimulus? It creates temporary jobs on the one hand (Dems) and it's investment on the other hand (Reps). It seems too simple. Which is why it makes sense to me.
Never underestimate the efficacy of having them die.
It's worked for me.
Saves tons on birthday & Christmas purchases, too.
the robot market is coming. and that google car could be quite the innovation
i doubt i will be around to see the next great step. as an engineer by education and as one who loves to tinker i am missing out
sure i got to see a lot of interesting stuff. but cars that drive themselves? self-directed machines that handle complex tasks?
that's the science fiction i read growing up.
i am surprised nobody has thrown the secessionists at me. that's a niche group in the party as well.
The problem is, that 40 percent is growing a lot faster than the producer class, and they get to vote. Didn't you see the "47 percent" video? Ha ha.
I think this undersells things a bit. Yes, most likely Bangledesh and other poor, low lying countries will have it *worse*, but that doesn't mean the US will be "fine" per se. The US could, for example, see a series of major storms destroy lives and infrastructure in areas of the country that are not prepared to deal with it, like New York and New Jersey. Just as an example.
Moreso, it's a bit hubristic to assume we can project the outcomes and effects of climate change. The assumption that all of the stable climate belts will just move up a bit, so GA and TX look more like Mexico, and Canada gets more arable farmland to replace what dries up down south, is just wishcasting into the void. It's quite possible that the effect of climate change is that stable climate belts cease to exist and farmers become far less able to predict what will happen in a growing season, which would significantly disrupt food production across the world.
Again, that hurts the poorer world *more* but the US still needs food.
But it made me smile.
For the record, the conversation you guys are embarking upon is straight up Marxist theory of post-capitalism. But don't let that run you away. This is a conversation that needs to be had, and you're right: the answer is that the Puritanical moralism that associates human value with "work all day" is going to have to shift significantly in our looming robotic future.
This was the 'agreement' I reached with my conservative friend via e-mail before we dove into an entitlement reform discussion:
We hereby agree that the following guidelines shall be strictly adhered to in the forthcoming debate on entitlements:
Party (ME) agrees that while expanding Medicare into a national single payer program may be an ultimate desire, it is not on the table for discussion. Party (HIM) agrees that while opposing the very existence of the Medicare on ideological grounds might be bedrock, its elimination is likewise not on the table for discussion. Each party may at his discretion, propose limited or test programs that are related to these higher goals, but the other party reserves the right to ignore/not address them out of hand at said party's discretion.
Further, Party (HIM) agrees that entitlement discussion will be clearly limited and confined to the reality of the budget (i.e.,. recognition of the difference between the discretionary budget that drives the deficit and the entitlements budget that does not), and will refrain from hyperbolic comparisons to Greece, acknowledging the realities of the origin of the "debt ceiling", acknowledging the realities of the SS/M trust fund actually funding borrowing, and will as such, confine the discussion solely to entitlement costs and funding without conflating the two for larger ideological purposes. Party (ME) agrees overall spending may be allowed, but only when germane to the realities of the overall balance sheet, further agrees not to resort to any Keynesian "In the long run, we're all dead" discussion enders, and finally, acknowledges that demographic realities will inevitably lead to a system that drains to zero/real-time funding without some manner of adjustment. Party (ME) will also refrain from any emotionally charged appeals to 'grandma'.
Finally, both parties agree that any real numbers will be presented both in raw dollars and appropriate proportional representations for the good of the debate. Where any use solely of percentages or solely of raw dollars are used, both parties agree that such usage will be limited, understood as simple lack of corresponding measure as available or easy to calculate, and not used for shock value.
...it's a good agreement that's led to a real good exchange, I think... but it's damn near impossible to get any broad national or political agreed upon framework in place.
Has the presidency ever been bestowed on anyone guilty of a fatal neck-stabbing?
that and minnesota and north dakiota will likely become america's breadbasket. they are pretty nice folks
Me too.
And here we answer why the discussion doesn't go very far.
Again, that hurts the poorer world *more* but the US still needs food.
In that case, we can afford to be inefficient and have the Farmville crowd play for keeps as farm hands. Some years, nothing to harvest, in other years, lots.
Nonsense. Your theory is that Latinos wouldn't vote for Romney not because of anything Romney said or did, but because the party has some racist wingnuts on the fringes. And I simply pointed out that the overwhelming majority of blacks seemingly had no problem voting for Dems during the 30 years that a former Klansman was prominent among the Dem leadership.
You (and a lot of others here) seem to see the entire GOP/Latino issue as one of racism, when, in fact, it's one of government and political philosophy. The GOP wants less government and makes no secret of that desire, while Latinos want more government and make no secret of that desire. The two positions are incompatible, which is borne out in the voting trends.
The knock-on effects of robot cars is pretty big. For example, roadside dining is pointless when you can sit with the family in the driverless car and eat on the way to the beach.
Heinlein's "The Roads Must Roll" is an idea whose time has come.
(Of course, many of Heinlein's other ideas would make Rand Paul sound like a Bolsevik.)
Perhaps my underselling the dangers of climate change for the US spring from raw self interest. Hmmmm. Seriously though I purposefully undersold CC as a US problem because I think the US can handle it. We have the money, will, and money to do so and the technology will come. I am much less sure of the rest of the world and that gives me a sad.
Scott Rasmussen: "I'm the Eric Gregg of Pollsters."
-----------------------------------------------
My sister (well one of the three) is in fact a evangelical GOP hardliner (Loves Palin for example). She unfriended me once (I suspect I know why, but she never said, and then refriended me later. She never ever talks politics with me, and I avoid it with her. We mostly get along, which is really wierd because she has had on and off fueds with the rest of the family over the years.
As I've mentioned previously, my business partner is a rabid Obama-baiter. Outside of that he's perfectly sane and rational. He sends me chain e-mails all the time (though not as many as my pool playing buddy), but since the election I haven't heard a peep out of him, or the other guy either.
They're threatening to replace the actors with condomless robots.
They're threatening to replace the actors with condomless robots.
You've seen the acting in those things, who will know the difference?
My concern is that it's not just "Puritanism" though. People with nothing to occupy their time create social pathologies. The ones who want status but have no outlet to do so through traditional means will turn to crime. Alcoholism and drug abuse become rampant. Depression and other mental illnesses become more common. There's a lot of evidence that it's not healthy for people to just do nothing.
The theory I liked was the structural issues around the parties and race. Even if the policies were exactly the same would you rather vote for one that is virtually all white male (OK there are a few females and a sprinkling of other) or one that is chock full of the rainbow of flavors that humanity comes in?
And of course the policies and rhetoric are not the same. Not coincidentally the pale male party has some harsh rhetoric and some kind of nasty planks in their platform. The rainbow party has said many more nice things, has HR approved lingo in its party platform, and has actually tried recently to pass (not as hard as it should have I admit) additional legislation.
Pretending it comes down to the fringes on either side is missing the forest for that one tree over there. No not that one, the one behind it.
EDIT: I am pretty sure it was zonk's theory (or at least post) that said it best. I am too lazy to go look though.
the wife is the one who uses the charged language just to get under my skin. for the last month leading up to the election she referred to teh gop as the 'nazi party'. i let her have her fun.
I'm from Miami and its true you know - I've never seen a Cuban taking a siesta on the side of the road with his sombrero pulled down over his nose.
Since I'm old and senile, maybe you can remind me of the Democratic primary where Robert Byrd, Strom Thurmond and James O. Eastland were the three front runners, and the winner out-segged the competition on his way to the nomination.
Once again: Robert Byrd's leadership position in the Democratic Party came long after he'd repudiated his past racial views. And even after he'd risen in his party's ranks, he never would have been considered by anyone as a contender for the presidency. His position in the Senate was entirely based on seniority, reinforced by the then-one party status of West Virginia.
By contrast, Romney achieved his party's nomination in great part by endorsing the Arizona immigration law and not saying a word against Sheriff Arpaio when he had every opportunity to do so in that primary debate. Trying to equate these two situations of Byrd and Romney has got to make one wonder about your ability to sort information.
Byrd was in the KKK in the 1940s. More significantly in 1964 he filibustered the Civil Rights Act. And voted against Thurgood Marshall. Them's marks that don't go away.
But he changed. Who knows his heart? But he voted differently--the NAACP gave him a 100% rating in 2004--and he spoke differently calling the Klan and the Civil Rights Act filibuster the worst mistakes of his life.
Even so the Democrats were not exactly holding him up as their example of their open-mindedness and he never got anywhere in his try for national office.
So the lesson for Republicans would be that if a rabidly anti-immigration elected official, apologized and got a 100% rating from a pro-immigration group, you're probably safe giving that guy a ceremonial role in the party.
The other interesting lesson is George Wallace who, for all his racist diatribes, had a good record on keeping social service programs open to blacks (segregated of course), then apologized, outlined his new policies, won a primary with scant black support, and then got black support in a general election.
So the Wallace lesson would be that you can gain votes from a side you've demonized but you need to apologize and lay out a new policy and then hope your opponent is even less desirable.
But both of those are too stringent. Republicans just need to run someone who is unapologetically pro-immigration, both in terms of its impact upon the country and in terms of favoring reasonable policies to deal with people who came here by some other means. Tone matters but policy matters, too. If they do that, I don't think the past 50 years will haunt them. I don't see an emphatically pro-immigration platform getting through the convention but stranger things have happened.
I'd love to know how many people who don't watch the films voted to put a condom law on them.
There are always more things to do. While I share the concern with issues of economic opportunity and inequality, freeing up labor in one area simply makes other, labor-intensive jobs more economically feasible.
There are a variety of possible scenarios. In one, your educated, super-skilled robot designer uses the money earned by his skills to hire a maid, butler, chauffeur, three gardeners, and cook. Not because he really needs them (the car could drive itself), but they serve as status symbols, much like upper-class life in 19th-century Europe.
Or, if that's too dystopian for you, the same people can offer services as yoga instructors, can sell hand-carved bird feeders, act as wedding planners, interior designers, personal trainers, etc. etc. for the same person.
This is silly. The policies of the Dems and GOP obviously aren't exactly the same, and your apparent presumption that one side would still have a "rainbow of flavors" because they're better people rather than for policy reasons is both incredibly incorrect and incredibly arrogant.
Being in favor of the CRA but against affirmative action is the truly colorblind position. Refusing to pander to illegal immigrants is not the same thing as "hating brown people" or evidence of institutional racism within the GOP.
Latinos, and especially Latino immigrants, are precisely the people for whom big government is most attractive. That's the challenge faced by the GOP, not the alleged presence of millions of anti-Latino racists in the party's midst.
Earth to Joe: Racism is less socially acceptable in America in 2012 than it was in 1977, and a *lot* less socially acceptable than it was in 1950.
One generation's pathology is the next generation's fun-time hobby! I think your crime, alcoholism and druggies is a worst case dystopian scenario. It's possible that people will decide to travel, see the world, meet new peoples and cultures (robot boats taking the newly freed working classes around the world on month long holidays) which in turn will build understanding and trust between nations and cultures, reducing global violence and war. Art and literature becomes a common man's game. We shoot Lassus into outer space. Everyone wins.
This is a mirror of Euro porn's condom laws. It's not about aesthetics. It's about STDs.
I think it'd be awesome if they just spliced in old condomless footage for the closeups and "finale."
Buried out in the cornfield, one presumes.
The joke is that Obama beat Romney by two points among Cuban-Americans.
do i remember that right?
My dad's side of the family, who live a few hours away have opposing views on both politics and religion, though I don't recall ever hearing any political debates. I get the impression my dad made his views clear when he moved out his hometown. Religion is important to a few of my aunts and they discuss it quite often, though not when my dad's around.
Now, to speak for myself: I didn't find myself the least condescended to. In fact, I'm far more used to hearing that I'm a shrill harpy that doesn't understand what I'm talking about and needs to realize that white men know way more about minorities, structural racism and the history of race relations than I do (apparently, I am too emotional to know what I say, whereas white people are always calm and cool). Finding that people take me seriously is a comfort. I assure you, the moment I feel that I'm being talked down to, I will gladly say as much. That said, the worry over paternalism (Andy's or otherwise) was, in fact, condescending. Ray's comments about how the Democratic Party is full of the real racists was way more paternalistic than anything else. It stripped any semblance of intelligence or agency away from minorities, and implied that they are either too dumb or too naive to understand why they even vote for Democrats.
I suspect that Andy highlights my comments because a) I'm a relatively rare voice, b) I echo or reinforce much of what he says about race relations, but I have "street cred" in a way that he doesn't, c) he quotes things he likes a lot anyway.
Back to the much more interesting discussion about climate change and the political realities around it.
I'm sure the actors and actresses understand what the risks are. Thus, no need for a law.
Some other 'gainful employment' ideas in this future...
Blade Runner and Speilbergian A.I. aside - I have a hard time believing that androids would ever substitute for the old-fashioned role in the hay, even for mechanical, loveless sex... couple that with increased feminine sexual empowerment, maybe we'll have see an explosion in the world's oldest profession.
Figure that medical science will be able to regenerate limbs and organs, we'll probably always have need for some form of human trials - at least, until we can do computerized simulations to such minute and granular details that even this becomes unnecessary. What's more - we may never be able to replicate the mental, and even medical processes that don't affect brain chemistry might always still require some manner of psychological monitoring...
Matrixian human batteries!
It's hard to find answers that aren't dystopian...
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main