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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
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d) the old coot can't remember what he's responding to so he has to copy it into the posts themselves.
So the Wallace lesson would be that you can gain votes from a side you've demonized but you need to apologize and lay out a new policy and then hope your opponent is even less desirable.
Another side of the Wallace story is that he lost the 1958 Democratic gubernatorial primary when John Patterson (of Phenix City fame) allied himself with the KKK while Wallace was supported by the N-Double A.
After getting trounced, Wallace went into his backyard, grabbed a hold of a turnip, and vowed with God as his witness that he was never going to be "out-segged" again. And he wasn't.
And I'm sure you don't understand the industry one whit.
Wait, what? They are the rainbow party because they have folks of many genders, races, and sexual preferences in positions of power. People feel more comfortable with voting for the party that has all those people in power, thinking that people like them are more likely to share their concerns.
I never said anything about "better people" and you really need to go back and read what I said. I used colorful language on purpose, but it wasn't THAT hard dude.
Inara.
according to others i feed folks to the hogs. i neither confirm nor deny
devil
nah, i know shrill harpies. your writing in no way resembles that of my wife's sisters.........................
This only works if you completely ignore history. As I've mentioned here countless times, the Reagan immigration amnesty in 1986 did little or nothing to win Latino votes over to the GOP.
As of a year or two ago, only ~55 percent of Latinos in the U.S. age 23 or older had a high school diploma. If anyone believes Latinos will vote for the small-government GOP out of loyalty because of immigration rather than for big-goverment Dems based on pocketbook issues, they're either crazy or they're Dem saboteurs posing as political analysts.
Joe, I know following a thread can be tough in conversations like this, but my point, which you immediately parsed in a Democrat/Republican binary, was in response to SBB's claim that there's nothing we can do to address systemic/institutional racism. It's actually the opposite-- because it lives in institutions, and people create and maintain those institutions, there are things we can do to fix them. But immediately, you go back to the "your guy" vs. "my guy" thinking. I voted against Bloomberg when I had the chance, in large part because he maintained or intensified Giuliani's absurd and racist policing policies.
As to your "suppressed" video: You already stated your conclusion. Every piece of data you find is just further evidence used in support of that conclusion. Which is precisely how the research on media bias predicts you'll act. So I dismiss your faith-based 'reasoning' on the subject as just that.
I don't think this is really true. There is still energy to be input into the system. A dumber person might be not very efficient at data collection and management, but it's not impossible. How is this different from saying, in 1880 - that the vast majority of people are incapable of learning to read so will be shut out of the reading-based economy. Human brains -- even below average ones -- are incredibly good at some kinds of data processing.
But energy is the key. Enough % of solar energy extracted is they means to the post scarcity society. We have to solve this anyway, because of the immortality situation just over the horizon there. You think I'm wrong? They can already, in a dish, reprogram differentiated cells into stem cells. I think people born in 2040 (in the 1st world, anyway) will never age, or age incredibly slowly. So, have to ship them off planet or whatever.
This is one thing I really like about the Global Warming "debate". It's really a LONG term problem. For instance - Fraking. Great, another cheap carbon source. The AGW projections usually don't even bother to go past "peak oil". There is a HUGE amount of Carbon still in the ground that can be burned... and then we are not talking about 1-2 degrees. What about 15 degrees C? average world wide? (in 300 years, but still...)
Humanity is going to really have to start dealing with LONG term problems. Sooner than they think!
I think you're skipping ahead to the post-scarcity part. Everything breaks down at that point, because we have no meaningful frame of reference for what such a world would look like.
I'm focusing on the near future. It's 2025 and effective unemployment is ~40% and holding steady, with very few job opportunities for unskilled or semiskilled workers. There's no money for that 40% to travel and see the world; they're poor, living in government subsidized housing, eating government subsidized food, and living on the dole. We've already seen what that looks like, both in the US and overseas; it looks a lot like my 5979. That said, we should still shoot Lassus into outer space.
It's going to take more than one vote at this point. Maybe 20 votes per year for the next 50 years. But it's possible. Blacks used to be the most reliable Republican voters there were.
This is the second hand smoke discussion. The nanny state side thinks bars should be smoke free so workers are not exposed to it. The Libe4rtarians think if everyone knows the risk who cares, get government out of it.
I side with the nanny state(go figure). And I don't watch porn (Sorry but it is just too damn terrible/boring for me, at least every time I was forced to watch, thankfully I don't know "that guy" any more, you know the one that loves Howard Stern and thinks hanging out watching porn is an awesome way to spend a Saturday evening).
It'd be interesting to see that vote broken down by age group.
What are you talking about? Blacks and Latinos were voting overwhelmingly for Dems long before Obama came along. Reagan, Bush 41, and Bush 43 promoted Colin Powell into ever more prominent roles. Bush 41 nominated Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court. Bush 43 had a black secretary of state for all 8 years of his presidency, a Latino attorney general, a Latino commerce secretary, and Asian-American secretaries of labor and transportation, along with countless women in positions of authority. The GOP currently has more Latino U.S. senators and governors than the Dems (which has 1 and 0, respectively).
This idea that the Dems have a monopoly on diversity is nonsense. It serves only to advance this bizarre idea that minorities are either Dems or "not real blacks/Latinos/etc.," as gets hurled at everyone from Clarence Thomas to Thomas Sowell to Stacey Dash. ("Tolerance," indeed.)
The scene right before the intermission in GWTW, IIRC. But correct me if I've misremembered, since it's been a while since I've seen it.
I agree, TGF -- but I tend to side with Sam...
Let's set aside for a moment the idea and natural susceptibility to wanting 'more' - i.e., I might say that give me a decent enough clean and safe domicile, the means to power/heat/cool it as necessary, and sustenance enough not to go hungry - and I'll happily spend the rest of my life in thought, learning, and play, even though the reality is that then, I'd probably want a country home, a ski villa, and maybe a lakehouse... plus a bottle of Hendricks every week, the finest cut of beef for dinner, etc... but set that aside.
I do think that I could keep myself occupied with enough intellectual pursuits and (benign) leisure activities. I don't actually travel for leisure all that much, but there are definitely enough places on earth that I'd like to see to keep me traveling for more than a few years. I read a fair bit, but free up 10 more hours a day - and I'm certain I'd never run out of material enough to use up a couple of them. I enjoy movies, television, and even plays/etc -- but haven't seen or watched nearly as much as I'd like. I'd love to learn a number of foreign languages -- always wanted to become fluent enough in Russian to read Tolstoy or Dostoyevsky in the original. Since I've recently become a fair bit more physically active -- a weekly baseball game would suit me fine.
Of course, we always worry -- but -- what about the other guy....
Have you seen the orgasm implant? Edit: One more.
The real issues isn't android women replacing real women, but android men, as in AI.
Finally, something we can agree on.
All I know is, when we were kids we were told that if we didn't stop grabbing our turnips, we'd go blind.
I suppose we'll have to put them on trains to Siberia then.
Should I ever become Richard Branson rich, I'm totally going to shoot Lassus into space.
With or without a rocket?
Why not just replace the dumb person with a machine if you're actually trying to accomplish something. Otherwise I'm not sure what you're arguing for here; is it a sort of futuristic WPA where people who can't find work would be entitled to a full suite of benefits/funding so long as they showed up someplace every day and pretended to work/didn't cause trouble?
It's true. We do often undersell the GOP's rainbow coalition of racists and demagogues. I mean, Sean Hannity is totally not like Glenn Beck at all!
The structure of the two parties. Dems have throughout their party, from top to bottom a representation of America (not as good as it could be, but still). The GOP has white men top to bottom, with some ladies and a sprinkling of others. You can keep pretending the two are the same but they are not.
The rocket is necessary. The physics don't work otherwise. Now, I did not stipulate that he would be on the interior of said rocket, or of said rocket had a "return to Earth" mechanism.
That's true, two completely different strains of white pseudo-Christianity right there.
Random questions:
Do Jews vote Democratic because they want free stuff or because they hate Jesus?
With Tim Russert gone, does Hannity now have the largest head in television?
Was the near-total whiteness of the crowd in Boston two nights ago simply camera angles?
Fine, but I didn't see you go to any great lengths (or any lengths) to disclose that the crack-cocaine sentencing laws were a Dem creation. That issue has been used as an anti-GOP talking point for decades despite being patently false.
We know the video exists. We know CBS didn't release it for almost two months. We know the video proves Obama was less than honest in the second presidential debate. You've offered no explanations for the video not being released, yet you expect us to believe your declarations that there's no such thing as media bias. It appears your belief is much more religious than mine.
Illuminati. Secret cabals. NAFTA superhighway. Totes diff.
2025 is really, really soon in terms of technological change. Check out Minority Report-- where they hired 'futurologists' to create a realistic vision of what the world would like like in 2054. Their assertion was that social and economic change, at the macro level, happens on a way less compressed timeline than we imagine/want it to.
The simplest way to read this is Republicans can do better with Latinos--not win maybe but do better--when they advocate more pro-immigrant policies. When they don't, they don't get any support.
And 40% would make a big difference! Obviously the dynamics (and size) of the Latino vote are changing, and no one knows exactly how things would play now, but if the Reagan method produced the Reagan result in 2012 (or the G W Bush method produced a G W Bush result among Latinos), we'd be talking about Barack Obama's upcoming golf vacation.
How about Asians? More free stuff mongers I guess.
Senior citizens (recipients of huge amounts of government largess) however are totally not takers at all. They vote GOP because they love America and want Government to keep away from their Medicare. Sigh.
The whole "people vote for Dems to get free stuff" is going to get old really fast, but such is life.
How about the history of Byzantium/Constantinople/Instanbul?
Boston's not exactly noted for its diversity in the first place, but wealthier people tend to vote for Republicans while poorer people tend to vote for Democrats. This has been my point all along.
Mongers. Mongols. Asian hordes! We should build a wall.
Yeah, "on the fringes". That's the ticket!
It's easy to say that as a middle class guy who's currently employed and has discretionary income to enjoy things like vacations, nice meals out, premium liquors, etc. An unemployed Zonk living in crappy public housing, making ends meet on food stamps and welfare, with no money to travel or enjoy most luxuries might feel differently. I used to think the same as you, and I decided to try not working for a while; I was bored after 4 months and quickly went back to working. And I was living in a lovely condo and not wanting for money; would only have been worse if I'd been poor.
African Americans. Latinos. Asians. Jews. It's almost as if years and years of defining yourself as the party of rabid nativists who really just don't like all of those unseemly types taking over the country from "real Americans" has consequences.
So you invented a straw man to fight! And you beat him up! Wow, you're so good at this.
I haven't offered an explanation for a lot of things. This is not proof of media bias. You haven't offered any evidence that it is media bias, other than "it fits my preconceived narrative that the media's in the tank for Obama, so all other possibilities are simply foreclosed."
Word. But competing against human Jude Law is getting easier by the day. Repo Men? Who says yes to that?
According to Back to the Future we're three years away from flying cars. And of course we're exactly 100 years away from priests banning music.
Finally read about it a few months ago. While America might come off SLIGHTLY better than UK, Germany and others, not a fine example of American Exceptionalism.
The overthrough of Mossadegh is quite interesting. You have Ottamanish Iran, Cold War, Islamicists, depravity, a real melange. Patriot of Persia: Muhammad Mossadegh and a Tragic Anglo-American Coup.:
I'm with Bitter Mouse on not accepting the basic premise (as I've said many times I am very uncomfortable with the drones program. To be more specific, I'd really like some form of judicial oversight)
That said, "Townburner" Washington and recreational duelist Andrew Jackson some to mind as having actions on their resume before being elected that are at least as serious as the way you see Obama's.
Fact-checking Joe is a full-time job, but for the record, there are currently 7 Hispanic U.S. Senators, 4 of whom are Democrats.
There are 49 Hispanic U.S. Congressmen, 35 of whom are Democrats, 1 affiliated with both parties, and 13 of whom are Republicans. Of course Joe doesn't mention that.
But yes, there is one Hispanic governor**, and yes, she is a Republican. Big whoops.
**There may be more, but I'm going by the names. I don't see any overall list of Hispanic governors.
You haven't met Don Nelson and his collection of white centers for the Warriors during his coaching career.
Reagan's immigration amnesty was in 1986, two years after his last election. He did well with Latinos because the economy was booming, not because of an immigration amnesty that happened two years after his '84 reelection.
Prop 187, meanwhile, got almost 60 percent of the vote. With city after city in California going bankrupt, it appears Pete Wilson was right to sound the alarm when he did.
No, the simplest way to read this is that the GOP does better with Latinos in strong economic times. The immigration stuff is a distraction. When your party passes the biggest immigration amnesty in the country's history, an amnesty that overwhelmingly benefited Latinos, and yet your share of the Latino vote trends down, it appears immigration isn't much of an electoral panacea.
Probably no way to get around a visionary strongman/regime that certainly has a lot in common with history's dictatorial regimes...
Our problem is that 1)we've proven time and again that as a species, we are terribly, terribly awful at recognizing when that appropriate epoch is upon us, 2)we'd need the benevolent sort, and those are even rarer if not non-existent, who'd 'release us' when post-scarcity became a reality, 3)what do you about the people that aren't ready/don't want to participate for whatever reason.
As rough as that sounds, the alternatives might well be worse -- some sort of horrific selection process, some sort of age-related "old world people" vs "new world people" cut-off...
...or maybe, if we DO shoot Lassus into space, he'll just return at the appropriate time ala Buck Rogers!
Your line of thinking reflects the exact problem. You think in terms of individuals. You keep saying, "but we have one of those!" like minorities are collectibles. Structurally, does the Republican Party discuss the issues of these communities and explain why Republican policies will help? It's like someone saying that Thurgood Marshall was able to get a law degree, so black people in the 40's and 50's were just whining. Democrats never talk about "who" they have. It's not necessary. Are there too few at top positions? Yes. But Democrats have a much deeper bench. Without any big names at all (remove Jindal, Haley, Rubio, Martinez), where are the brown faces? When there are rallies, why are there so few minorities? The Democratic congressional delegation now has non-Hispanic white men as a minority of their caucus.
Yet another example of a coach falling in love with players who remind him of his playing days.
Actually - what we probably will see is a lot more use for philosophy majors... we're going to need an awful lot of ethicists of various types.
Well, we all know who killed Him, don't we?
Hey, you're the one claiming the GOP has major problems with racism and nativism without offering any evidence, while offering examples of racism that originated with, or were expanded by, Democrats.
So I guess we have dueling opinions about media bias. I've at least offered some evidence for mine.
Boston stats from the 2010 census:
White persons, percent, 2010 (a) 53.9%
Black persons, percent, 2010 (a) 24.4%
American Indian and Alaska Native persons, percent, 2010 (a) 0.4%
Asian persons, percent, 2010 (a) 8.9%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, percent, 2010 (a) 0.0%
Persons reporting two or more races, percent, 2010 3.9%
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2010 (b) 17.5%
White persons not Hispanic, percent, 2010 47.0%
You might want to take another look at that list, Andy. You seem to be counting several dead people.
Yet another example of a coach falling in love with players who remind him of his playing days.
Yeah, that hillbilly center the Celtics had back in the 60's used to whoop on Big Wilt at every opportunity.
Even South Boston, the epicenter of the 1974 busing riots, is now only 75% white.
When I lived across the river in Cambridge I was surrounded by Brazilians and was around the corner from an odd Haitian half-block.
Clearly, Joe skipped several of my posts... because the power of the Democratic party isn't numbers at the 'top' -- it's numbers on the bench, in the minor leagues, etc.
It's not the national media optics -- it's the fact that Dems can deploy ward captains, party leaders, state reps, etc almost at will to recruit, etc.
Like I said several pages ago -- it's something the Democrats have structurally focused on creating... It's less valuable having Luis Gutiérrez available to give a speech or make a TV appearance than it is valuable to have a whole roster of future Luis Gutiérrez' available to knock on doors, serve as party delegates, or otherwise be available with the shoe leather, the handshake, and the "Hi, I work for..."
Maybe the GOP has more of this than I suspect, but I don't think it's really up for debate that the Democrats simply do a better job of having a system that 1) goes out of its way to recruit them, 2) effectively advances them - that doesn't mean putting them in front of cameras, it means "Hey - you should run for state rep/etc", and 3) then likewise goes out of its way to do what always happens in politics... i.e., grooming the promising newcomer for higher office.
Sure, both parties have their 'dynasties' -- but next FL Senate cycle, will the GOP be running Connie Mack XIV, or, do they have another Marco Rubio?
Best case would probably be the development of godlike AI that maintains an inexplicable fondness for humans similar to the fondness many humans have for cats. Something along the lines of the Culture novels from Iain Banks. If we're ridiculously, win-the-lottery lucky, that's what we'll end up with.
Return?!??
For the Record, there are currently 7 Hispanic Senators, 4 of whom are Democrats.
There are 49 U.S. Representatives, 35 of whom are Democrats, 1 of whom was nominated by both parties, and 13 of whom are Republicans. Of course Joe doesn't mention that.
You might want to take another look at that list, Andy. You seem to be counting several dead people.
My bad. The current breakdown is 1 Democratic and 1 Republican Senator, and 17 Democratic and 7 Republican Representatives. Not sure why you didn't mention that last breakdown.
Yeah, there's plenty of diversity in Boston, there is also still some de facto segregation of neighborhoods (a legacy of the 1960s and 70s). It's definitely changing, but it's still there to some extent. My neighborhood (Egleston Square, on the Jamaica Plain/Roxbury line) is a good example of the mixing that is finally happening.
Camilo Pascual, Aurelio Rodriguez ...
Oh.
"Currently."
Never mind.
*sigh*
Plain silliness. He never argued that we're all automatically obliged to accept someone's interpretation, only that she's entitled to that interpretation, which is then up for debate; no one is obliged to accept as given the meanings you wish to assign, or argue only within the frame you wish to create.
i don't see the connection to prop 187
Can't believe I forgot Banks... of course, I always intentionally ignore him because he's gotten many of ideas from playing Civilization, an idea I always had but never followed up on... the bastard.
Nonsense. I was simply responding to Bitter Mouse's claim that minorities vote for Dems because Dems have
a "rainbow of flavors" while the GOP is all "pale males."
The Dems have a deeper bench with Latinos? Really?
The Dems currently have one Latino, a guy who's generally recognized as one of the sleaziest members
of the U.S. Senate (Bob Mendendez). The Republicans have Marco Rubio, who's among the most popular
Republicans in the country, and the racist Tea Party in the racist state of Texas spent millions to defeat
white guy David Dewhurst in the GOP primary in favor of Ted Cruz, who won on Tuesday and will join Rubio
in the Senate in January.
When it comes to Latino governors, the Dems have ... none. Zero. The Republicans have Susana Martinez
and Brian Sandoval.
As for "brown faces" in the crowds, I've explained this a dozen times. Latinos overwhelmingly favor bigger
government, so it's not a surprise that they aren't flocking to the party that wants to cut the size of government.
This is a simple matter of political ideology, not a matter of institutional anti-Latino (or anti-black) racism.
Yeah, the Romans. And now they worship a king in a pointy hat what sits on this throne in Rome.
New York Magazine interviewed him (well, through email).
Hold on hippie, I though the libruls were the wealthy elitists.
Where are all these examples of white Dems voting for Latinos? Your party has one Latino U.S. senator and
zero governors, while the majority (if not vast majority) of your black and Latino House members are from
majority-minority districts.
The Dems have done a great job in forging a political coalition with blacks and Latinos, but this idea that
white Dems can't wait to vote for blacks and Latinos is assuming a lot of facts not in evidence.
I liked the reference, YR!
You got that right. Remember this? That was the funkiest guy in the whole city.
Nope, I fixed it. Baracusmentum!
*golf clap*
That's why we all voted against whatshisface--Barney Omaba or something--in the 2008 primaries.
A great performance ruined in a crappy movie. That romantic subplot was worse than worthless.
Anyone going to see "Lincoln"?
Agreed. When I rewatch it now I just skip to all of his scenes. And yes, I plan to go see Lincoln - again, just to watch Mr. Lewis do his thing.
He seems to be wavering in that interview at various points as he answers the questions. Perhaps he is not as mentally deranged as he appears.
I'd love to know how, sitting from his perch in Libertaria, Obama is a plague to him but Romney is just fine. From where he is sitting they should both be unacceptable.
That seals it. Time to pick out new drapes.
***
Barney Omaba didn't even win enough delegates during the primary to secure the nomination. That's another of those pesky facts revisionist Dems like to leave out of the narrative.
What on earth are you babbling about here?
LOL. How soon they forget.
Quoting from the decision: “Pfizer had the information needed to disclose the useful compound and chose not to release it. Even though Pfizer knew that the effective compound was sildenafil at the time it filed the application, it limited its description,” Justice Louis LeBel wrote in the decision.
There has been a “certain complacence” amongst patent lawyers that if the disclosure information was sufficient to satisfy the patent office, then that patent was unassailable -- a not quite quote from a lawyer not involved in the case.
Oh right, forgot about that. I retract the credit.
It proves the libruls were so reluctant to vote for a negro that the split the vote with a lesbian. I think.
I used to find it odd that many Libertarians hated the Dems but thought the GOP was just fine and dandy... I mean I can see one concluding that the Reps were the lesser of two evils- but I've run into may a self-proclaimed libertarian who not only hates the Dems but is an enthusiastic GOPer...
My thoughts on them is either (i)they are not really libertarians, they think its cool to say they are but they are really "bog standard conservatives; or (ii) seriously deluded about what the GOP is and stands for.
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