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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   6301. Rants Mulliniks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4298782)
People want a ward boss they can complain to, not a theory that doesn't have ears...


Expand/elaborate, please?
   6302. tshipman Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4298783)
Not to be argumentative (because I agree with much of what you said), but even if they prefer larger government are you sure that those that immigrate are the same as the whole population? There could be self selection going either way which would make drawing a conclusion on the whole irrelevant when looking at the groups that immigrate.

I have no idea, but I am a bit leery of assuming the two groups are the same regarding belief in government.


I'm talking about US latinos.

This has been confirmed in poll after poll.

Here's Pew from April.
/
Even third generation Latinos favor "Bigger Government providing more Services" by 58/36.

Gallup in July found the same thing.

Government doing too much vs. Government should do more: 35/56.

In general, Republicans are going to have to moderate their rhetoric as well as moderate their policies, and not just on immigration. Republicans lost in 2012 because of their views on immigration--more Latinos votes against Romney than McCain, and in amazing numbers in places like CO. But they're going to lose the next election because Reagan-era policies are no longer a 50% coalition. In addition, Republicans now need to win 52% or more.

   6303. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:38 AM (#4298784)
I am not sure how you outlaw lobbying. People have a right to state their opinion. The right to petition Congress is not in the Constitution (and was suspended in the 19th century by Southerners and doughfaces who didn't want to even consider antislavery petitions, leading to J Q Adams' greatest hour) but it is central to the way people see government. So if we have a right to say aloud what we think and a right to petition government, what could you outlaw? Face to face meetings with congressmen? But what would that mean? Everyone has an interest in something. Would it be better to have congressmen who can never speak to their constituents?

You can limit money, which is important and which I support, but 1) money like water finds new routes, and 2) even if you eliminate money, congressmen will turn to lobbyists because no congressman has a staff capable of keeping up with every issue, so lobbyists more than money provide information, and often bill-writing expertise. Closing off financing of elections gives you more chance to separate politicians from lobbyists but it's not going to be flawless.

I think it makes more sense to think that the problems you mention, some of which I agree with, are caused not by a flaw in the system called lobbyists but by powerful bases of interests that will be heard one way or another. At some level the problems are not problems of lack of democracy but problems of democracy. People find ways to get heard. I'm curious though about how other countries deal with this. My sense is that the British are not exactly a model, that they are in some ways even more governed by corporate special interests than we are.
   6304. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:38 AM (#4298785)
SBB did agree with me, as did Ray. It was, in fact, noted as one of the strangest alignments of posters in BTF political circle jerk history.


If those two agree with you, what are the odds that what you had to say was hideously wrongheaded? Probably somewhere north of infinity, I'd venture to say.
   6305. tshipman Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4298787)
I'm telling you, though -- it's not unique...

If you had polled those old waves of immigrants - the Irish, the Italians, the Polish, etc -- I bet you'd have found the same... they weren't fleeing "big government" -- they were fleeing too corrupt and didn't work for them "big government". We romanticize the ones from those waves that became tycoons and innovators, but for every one of those luminaries, there were 99 who were satisfied to live in a place with more opportunity and a bit less skim from the leaders. Expecting a bit of 'protection' and 'help' on occasion isn't being dependent on "big government", it's just accepting that sometimes you get sick, sometimes the tenement burns down, sometimes things go wrong -- and there's no more new worlds to go and start fresh.


Even third generation Latinos self-identify as liberal at greater rates than the general population. The rhetoric doesn't help, but Latinos are most likely going to be a Dem voting block for some time.
   6306. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4298788)

Most latinos do really genuinely prefer larger government


But this is so abstract it's meaningless. Nobody goes to the polls looking to increase government spending as a % of GDP. People want concrete things: more jobs, an easier path to citizenship, better infrastructure, improved educational opportunities, etc.

I'm sure Latinos would would love to see more spending in certain areas. But the same is true of Republicans. Romney ran on a promise to dramatically increase military spending. "Larger government" seems to be code for "more spending on things I don't like" and "limited government" code for "less spending on things I don't like and more spending on things I do like."

Moreover, federal outlays as a % of GDP decreased under Carter and Clinton and increased under Reagan, Bush I, and Bush II. They spiked in 2008 and 2009 due to lower GDP. Over the last 2 years, they have declined. So the whole premise is whacked.
   6307. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4298791)
I'm talking about US latinos.


Sorry I thought you were referencing the whole Latin America stuff and not US specific. Ignore me, I was multi-tasking.

EDIT: Except the post below :), and my future posts which will be GREAT!
   6308. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4298793)
So regarding US Hispanics ... (assuming the Hispanics do like Government and it does mean something - not hopelessly generic)

Is the arrow of causality:

(A) I like government and so vote Democratic

-or-

(B) I like the Democratic party (for reasons discussed above) which is "big government" and so I support what it supports.

Can it be some of both? I am just not sure why it has to be just (A).
   6309. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4298794)
I've never said things were better in the good old days, although that's definitely true with music (1980s) and some other things.


although that's definitely true with music (1980s)!!!!!!!!!!

Oh Jesus Christ of all the flat out WRONG things you have said, this takes the cake, the only way you could top this is if you admitted you like Nancy Grace
   6310. zonk Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4298795)
People want a ward boss they can complain to, not a theory that doesn't have ears...



Expand/elaborate, please?


It's an urban-centric view, but that's where the 'people' (and the votes) are concentrated...

Check the column I posted from Royko on Rostenkowski... that's how the old machines we've dispatched with worked. Those old machines didn't rely on statutory authority or regulatory oversight to keep the local bank from ripping off the guy who owned the barbershop - they'd simply squeeze the interests that caused the constituents to complain. The old machines didn't get the sick domestic worker to a hospital because there was an exchange or a medicare -- they called in a favor -- and the neighborhood would nod (and vote) approvingly because they knew the lady who got the help, but couldn't afford it themselves.

Again - I'm not longing for the days of powerful machines who pretty much did what they wanted - but those machines grew and thrived because they provided those services to fill in the gaps and cracks... they didn't fill them all and they did it in a shady way, but people got taken care of when they needed to be taken care of more often than not.

We've by and large eradicated that system - all well and good - but people don't want a theory that might, in a generation or so, bring down costs enough to allow their bright kid to go to college... they want their kid to go to college...

Big government has always been - it just used to be under the table and a lot more shady... It's a good thing that it's not codified and above the table, but most people still want it.

   6311. Rants Mulliniks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4298796)
but 20+ years ago, most kids could put themselves through school working summer jobs and part time through the year. You can't do that anymore.

40 years ago, my tuition, room, board and books at Penn State cost me about 1000 hours of labor at minimum wage.

Now it's probably 3000 hours of minimum wage.


At UNB, my alma mater, tuition and fees for most programs this year is $6757, and $7757 for engineering. Only 20 years ago, all programs, fees included (and there were far fewer fees) were $2410, less than a third the cost. Minimum wage has doubled in that time, but no other wages/salaries have come close to doubling. Gas has increased by about 130%. Add to that the substantially tougher market for recent grads, and you've got trouble.

   6312. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4298797)
Music was at its height when I was in High School and College. It sucked before and since. And get off of my (record, Tape, CD, MP3) collection!
   6313. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4298798)
The Cold War turned out to be awesome sauce for liberals. High taxes to pay for science, universities, school expansion, infrastructure. Pushed by Republican politicians! Now we get Democratic presidents in what still seems to me like an era of retreat, health care (big exception alert) excepted.

I hate to think this way, but the best thing long-term for the country's political system would be if the county stopped being so afraid of Al Qaeda and started becoming more afraid of China and India.
   6314. Mefisto Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4298802)
The right to petition Congress is not in the Constitution (and was suspended in the 19th century by Southerners and doughfaces who didn't want to even consider antislavery petitions, leading to J Q Adams' greatest hour) but it is central to the way people see government.


The right to petition is in the First Amendment: "Congress shall make no law ... abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

You're right about the gag rule, though, and JQA's role in eliminating it.
   6315. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4298803)
R's have to change on more than immigration if they want to win the presidency. I am pretty confident they will. Republicans like winning elections.


Yes they do, but many Conservatives prefer being ideologically pure- and willing to stay out in the electoral wilderness for extended periods of time- and Conservatives are pretty influential in the GOP right now
   6316. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4298804)
In this pages long discussion about what Latinos want, are any of you actually Latino?
   6317. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4298805)
The right to petition is in the First Amendment: "Congress shall make no law ... abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."
Whoops! Forgot that in the gag rule stuff.
   6318. Rants Mulliniks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4298806)
I am not sure how you outlaw lobbying.


I should have said professional lobbyists.

Zonk, thanks (6310). That reminds me of Human Resources in government, which only provide a facade of "policy" to obfuscate the favours and nepotism that have always dominated hiring practices. Same result as before, except now we have a whole dept. of employees to make it appear that hiring is done fairly. When my dad started with the provincial Dept. of Transportation in the mid 1970's the HR branch was two people, and by the time he retired six years ago it was 26 people, despite it being a much smaller department overall. During this time no major programs were introduced (e.g. unemployment and life ins., Medicare, all levels of taxes, union dues, etc. were all there from the beginning), and payroll had advanced from the labourious process of manually writing and distributing cheques to electronic deposits.
   6319. Morty Causa Posted: November 09, 2012 at 11:59 AM (#4298807)
It isn't lobbying per se. It's the overweening lobbying flaunting power and influence--and that's dues to money.
   6320. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4298808)
In this pages long discussion about what Latinos want, are any of you actually Latino?


I have largely outsourced my opinions on Latinos to my best friend (Latino, born in US but spent some of youth in Mexico, has a huge family all over the US). Well I have my own opinions, but one what they think I definitely defer to him, though of course non-Latinos get opinions too and also of course Latinos are not some monolithic block (unlike baseball fans).
   6321. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4298809)
In this pages long discussion about what Latinos want, are any of you actually Latino?

In what way would this matter? I'm white and I'm not the final word on what white people want, nor does being white necessarily give me credibility in saying what white people want.(*) Indeed, there very well may be non-white people who are more equipped to say than I to say what white people want -- in fact, that's almost assuredly the case.

(*) And there are plenty of white people out there who don't have the slightest clue what white people want. The topic is susceptible to, and properly approached by, study and data. It has little to nothing to do with personal anecdote or opinion.
   6322. Rants Mulliniks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4298810)
There is a ton of good music out there, probably moreso than ever before. Just not on the radio.
   6323. tshipman Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4298812)
In this pages long discussion about what Latinos want, are any of you actually Latino?


No, but I am a US voter. I hate this sort of passive-aggressive ######## attempt to shut down conversation.

But this is so abstract it's meaningless. Nobody goes to the polls looking to increase government spending as a % of GDP. People want concrete things: more jobs, an easier path to citizenship, better infrastructure, improved educational opportunities, etc.

I'm sure Latinos would would love to see more spending in certain areas. But the same is true of Republicans. Romney ran on a promise to dramatically increase military spending. "Larger government" seems to be code for "more spending on things I don't like" and "limited government" code for "less spending on things I don't like and more spending on things I do like."


The Republican party has had a consistent brand of claiming to want to shrink government for the last 30 years. Paul Ryan explicitly campaigned on lowering spending to 18% of GDP (the difference between 22 and 18% of GDP apparently making the difference between freedom and hellish socialism).

What's more, Latinos agree with Democrats on spending on things like healthcare over things like tanks.
   6324. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4298813)
In this pages long discussion about what Latinos want, are any of you actually Latino?


That's what bothers me the most about Joe's stance. This is the same type of absolutist stance that Republicans in particular have about African-Americans despite having little insight in what we consider. I know a lot of African-Americans who believe that taxes are too high, that welfare policies need to be dismantled, that we should have school choice and that even we should have a tougher immigration policy. But the one thing that comes up the most, is how disrepectful Republicans are to the President and African-Americans as a whole in their rhetoric that seems at least partly race based. I don't know if Latino's feel the same way about immigration/Sotomayer/etc. but I have no doubt that Republicans don't have clue how harmful that there rhetoric is into persuading minorities to vote against them.
   6325. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4298818)

The Republican party has had a consistent brand of claiming to want to shrink government for the last 30 years. Paul Ryan explicitly campaigned on lowering spending to 18% of GDP (the difference between 22 and 18% of GDP apparently making the difference between freedom and hellish socialism).


The brand is not reality, and voters know that.


What's more, Latinos agree with Democrats on spending on things like healthcare over things like tanks.


Sure, but that's a different claim, one far more useful to discuss.
   6326. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4298819)
We get things like PPACA because the 'Mary' from above can't go to the friend of a friend who knows the boss with the favors anymore - we call that corruption... but Mary still needs that operation, Mary either doesn't have an employer that provides insurance, or, doesn't make enough to afford it on her own...

And when the Ryans of the world start talking about vocherizing Medicare**, and providing "supplementary" premium supports that aren't even indexed to real rises in the cost of medicine, you have to wonder what their answer is for the many millions of Marys, other than "that's a shame".

**Forget whether or not that was actually part of the final Republican platform. It's been a wet dream of right wing politicians for years, and they'd enact such a "reform" in a blink if they had the votes to do it.

---------------------------------------------

I've never said things were better in the good old days, although that's definitely true with music (1980s) and some other things.

It should go without saying that 90% of the best American music was made between about 1940 and 1970. Now on this issue there can be no debate. Choosing any other period is like putting cucumbers on a pizza.
   6327. phredbird Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4298821)
In this pages long discussion about what Latinos want, are any of you actually Latino?


no, but i downed a whole bottle of reposado tequila with my buddy jimmy last saturday and everything became clearer!
   6328. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4298824)
40 years ago, my tuition, room, board and books at Penn State cost me about 1000 hours of labor at minimum wage.

Now it's probably 3000 hours of minimum wage.


you are about right


1976/77 4 year school average Total tuition, room, and board = $2,577 (1935 public, 3977 private)
2006/07 4 year school average Total tuition, room, and board = $15,434 (1844 public, 28,896 private)
1976 1000 hours minimum wage = 2,300
2006 3000 hours minimum wage = 15,450

That's a 30 year spread, but that's the school costs data I found.
   6329. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4298825)
I have largely outsourced my opinions on Latinos to my best friend (Latino, born in US but spent some of youth in Mexico, has a huge family all over the US). Well I have my own opinions, but one what they think I definitely defer to him, though of course non-Latinos get opinions too and also of course Latinos are not some monolithic block (unlike baseball fans).


I once saw Martin Prado in the mall, and I was thinking seriously about tacos for lunch today.
   6330. McCoy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4298826)
Big Government = Red Herring = Strawman. Shall we continue on while pretending this isn't true?
   6331. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4298827)
There is a ton of good music out there, probably moreso than ever before. Just not on the radio.


This.
   6332. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4298828)
In this pages long discussion about what Latinos want, are any of you actually Latino?

The more generic point should be that debates are better informed when there's a diversity of life experiences being brought into the conversation, and the life experiences of minorities in the U.S. (or any country) are not always the same as the life experiences of the dominant ethnic group, regardless of income or class status. Obama's crack about Chicago cab drivers** was a pointed reminder of that truism.

**When he was once queried about his "blackness", he simply replied, "Well, I lived in Chicago for a long time, and I can tell you, cab drivers know I'm black."
   6333. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4298829)
Then there's stuff like this:

A visibly upset Zoraida Fonalledas, Chairwomen of the Committee on Permanent Organization, was greeted by chants of "USA, USA, USA" when RNC Chairman Reince Priebus introduced her to the convention crowd.

The chants kept coming until Priebus stepped back up to the podium and told the delegates to let Fonalledas take care of her business.

Just a little bit awkward.


Now the RNC came out the next day and said that the chants were from Ron Paul supporters protesting something entirely different, but somehow I'm thinking that the optics of the way the whole thing appeared at first blush resonated a whole lot more than any subsequent attempts at explanation ...
   6334. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4298830)
Music was at its height when I was in High School and College. It sucked before and since. And get off of my (record, Tape, CD, MP3) collection!


Music was in the toilet when I was in High School and College (and most of my immediate generation agrees) It was better both before and immediatetly after
   6335. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4298832)
A visibly upset Zoraida Fonalledas, Chairwomen of the Committee on Permanent Organization, was greeted by chants of "USA, USA, USA" when RNC Chairman Reince Priebus introduced her to the convention crowd.


Completely forgot about that incident. I mean, you have to be an ostritch to think that Latinos might not be receptive to your message when the "important" base of your party treats them like this.
   6336. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4298837)
No, but I am a US voter. I hate this sort of passive-aggressive ######## attempt to shut down conversation.


While there is an irony that a discussion of what the white guy Republican party needs to do to get Latinos back is being had by white guys, I didn't, nor will I, say that white people can't talk about minority issues. We absolutely can. I'm just more interested in hearing what Latinos think than what people think they think.
   6337. McCoy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:32 PM (#4298839)
Music of the 80's was mostly crap, when I got to high school I liked grunge but now I can't listen to it. Music post-grunge was mostly crap and bubble gum crap. I have to say that music now is great. Tons of great stuff in many different genres and a lot of mixing of genres going on. Last 5 or so years has probably been the best musical period of my life so far.
   6338. hokieneer Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4298842)
Big Government = Red Herring = Strawman. Shall we continue on while pretending this isn't true?


Yes it is, at least if we're talking about the GOP. It's not like they don't want to run 18-20%+ spending of GDP, they just want to run it on their own special interests. Dems want to spend it on their special interests.
   6339. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4298844)
Music of the 80's was mostly crap, when I got to high school I liked grunge but now I can't listen to it. Music post-grunge was mostly crap and bubble gum crap. I have to say that music now is great. Tons of great stuff in many different genres and a lot of mixing of genres going on. Last 5 or so years has probably been the best musical period of my life so far.


There was great music in the 80's. Few people listened to it, opting instead for mass produced pop radio. (If everyone who claims to have been "into R.E.M. in the 80's" had actually been into R.E.M. during the 80's it wouldn't have taken until the 90's for R.E.M. to break, etc.)

There was great music in the 90's. Few people listened to it, opting instead for mass produced pop radio.

There was great music in the 00's. Few people listened to it, opting instead for mass produced pop radio.

There is great music today. More people listen to it than previous eras, because of the intartubes and such, but for the most part, people still listen to crap on mass produced pop radio.
   6340. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4298845)
Music of the 80's was mostly crap, when I got to high school I liked grunge but now I can't listen to it. Music post-grunge was mostly crap and bubble gum crap. I have to say that music now is great. Tons of great stuff in many different genres and a lot of mixing of genres going on. Last 5 or so years has probably been the best musical period of my life so far.


The problem is that you were listening to the wrong music. R&B was in its hey-day with Michael Jackson, Prince, Earth, Wind & Fire and Whitney Houston. Plus, House music and techno were coming out of Detroit where I grew up. I was a kid then, but that was a golden age of music.
   6341. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4298846)
Music of the 80's was mostly crap, when I got to high school I liked grunge but now I can't listen to it. Music post-grunge was mostly crap and bubble gum crap. I have to say that music now is great. Tons of great stuff in many different genres and a lot of mixing of genres going on. Last 5 or so years has probably been the best musical period of my life so far.
Yes yes yes. I have almost no interest now, except for nostalgia, in the music of my high school (85-89) or college (89-93) years though this could reflect some poor choices at the time, but think the music of the last 10 years has had some amazing stuff.

Beyond aesthetics, it's just demographics. There are so many 15-25 year olds now compared to that baby bust era. The good side for us was the it was notably easier to do things like get into competitive colleges (staggering to me how schools I considered absolute safeties would now be quite competitive) but the good side for these kids is the world is understandably much more structured around their tastes, and more of them are doing cool things.
   6342. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:41 PM (#4298847)
40 years ago, my tuition, room, board and books at Penn State cost me about 1000 hours of labor at minimum wage.

Now it's probably 3000 hours of minimum wage.


Duke tuition and room, 1962-63 school year: $16,091 in 2012 dollars ($2100 then)**
Duke tuition, room, board and fees, 2012-13 school year: $56,056

1962 minimum wage: $7.66 ($1.00 then) - 2100 hours at minimum wage required
2012 minimum wage: $7.25 - 7732 hours at minimum wage required

And yes, scholarships, blah blah blah, as if they didn't have scholarships back then.

**West campus (men) only; East campus (women) included board, but I don't know the total figure. Fees back then consisted of a $50 (~$350) yearly athletic fee, period. That covered admission to all sporting events, with guaranteed front row Cameron seats to the swift of foot if you showed up five minutes early for the 6:00 freshman game. No weeks camping out in Bubasville were necessary.
   6343. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4298848)
In this pages long discussion about what Latinos want, are any of you actually Latino?


1: I'm not
2: I work with some, so I polled them- they want their power back on (so do I), and they complained about the MTA (hey, so do I)
3: The impression I get, is that they vote Dem, even the ones who demographically should//could be Republicans (ie., upper middle class, religious/socially conservative) vote Dem- because they think the GOP is racist.

Another thing no one but Rany J talks about- American Muslims (mainstream Muslims, not Nation of Islam types) used to vote R, now they vote overwhelmingly D- not not because they think Obama is one of them- they are voting R because they think the GOP is biased against them.

I see 2 Dem voting non-christian white demographics groups left that the GOP has a near future shot at picking up support from- Jews and Asians (and I think it's likely their share of the Jewish vote is going to increase)... aside from that the GOP has to increase its share of the white vote- which it has been doing- but how long can it continue to do that? They will certainly never get over 75%- too many white simply abhor what the GOP is selling for that to happen- unless the Dem party becomes openly anti-Whitey*- in which case we can forget talk about election because we'd be moving into racial civil war territory.

*Yes I know that some delusional types think that's what the Dem party is NOW, but what delusional people think really doesn't matter- unless there are enough of them to win an election or three.
   6344. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4298849)
40 years ago, my tuition, room, board and books at Penn State cost me about 1000 hours of labor at minimum wage.

Now it's probably 3000 hours of minimum wage.


And your anal virginity.
   6345. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4298852)
I was thinking seriously about tacos for lunch today


Tamales are where it is at, but if you are going to have tacos at least have legit tacos. And Chorizo and eggs rules for breakfast. The key to finding good Mexican food is to look for the dump in the strip mall that is filled with Mexicans and eat there. Of course that is pretty close to the way to find any kind of great ethnic food.
   6346. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4298853)
The problem is that you were listening to the wrong music. R&B was in its hey-day with Michael Jackson, Prince, Earth, Wind & Fire and Whitney Houston. Plus, House music and techno were coming out of Detroit where I grew up. I was a kid then, but that was a golden age of music.

The problem is that you were born 20 years too late. (smile) Check out Lorraine Ellison, Linda Jones, Bobby Blue Bland, the early Motown or Stax, the young Otis Redding, or any one of hundreds of singers and groups whose names are now sometimes remembered and sometimes not.

Or maybe you were born 40 years too late, and never got to drop in on 52nd Street in its heyday, with Bird, Miles, and all the rest. I only wish I could have been there for that myself.
   6347. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4298854)
I see 2 Dem voting non-christian white demographics groups left that the GOP has a near future shot at picking up support from- Jews and Asians (and I think it's likely their share of the Jewish vote is going to increase)


Jews have been just about to vote for the GOP forever now. Any minute. No really this time. It might happen, but I'll believe it when I see it.
   6348. zonk Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:49 PM (#4298855)

Tamales are where it is at, but if you are going to have tacos at least have legit tacos. And Chorizo and eggs rules for breakfast. The key to finding good Mexican food is to look for the dump in the strip mall that is filled with Mexicans and eat there. Of course that is pretty close to the way to find any kind of great ethnic food.


Once again, Nate Silver to the rescue...

People - Chicagoans, at least - that Nate also presented a Burrito Bracket 5 years ago...
   6349. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4298856)
There is great music today. More people listen to it than previous eras, because of the intartubes and such, but for the most part, people still listen to crap on mass produced pop radio.

Of course in reality there's been great music in every era since at least the 1920's, and the only question is how easy or hard it is to access some of the more obscure stuff today.
   6350. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4298857)
Tamales are where it is at, but if you are going to have tacos at least have legit tacos. And Chorizo and eggs rules for breakfast. The key to finding good Mexican food is to look for the dump in the strip mall that is filled with Mexicans and eat there. Of course that is pretty close to the way to find any kind of great ethnic food.


Finding good Mexican food is ridiculously easy where Sam lives.
   6351. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4298858)
Jews have been just about to vote for the GOP forever now. Any minute. No really this time. It might happen, but I'll believe it when I see it.

You're not the only one. Thank God that 70% - 80% of all Jews are still takers and self-haters.
   6352. zonk Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4298859)
I see 2 Dem voting non-christian white demographics groups left that the GOP has a near future shot at picking up support from- Jews and Asians (and I think it's likely their share of the Jewish vote is going to increase)



Jews have been just about to vote for the GOP forever now. Any minute. No really this time. It might happen, but I'll believe it when I see it.


Not to go all David Gregory "Bibi is king of the Jews!" --

But there's an interesting article Haaretz concerning Netanyahu's miscalculations... it's paywalled and, of course, Haaretz is hardly a Bibi booster - but it lays pretty bare how badly he miscalculated by all but doing the unthinkable and out-and-out endorsing a US Presidential challenger.
   6353. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4298860)
Of course in reality there's been great music in every era since at least the 1920's, and the only question is how easy or hard it is to access some of the more obscure stuff today.


We should ask Harvey about the '20s.
   6354. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4298861)
It will be a good test of Obama's foreign policy chops to see how he handles Israel and Bibi (most of which we will never see).
   6355. Greg K Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4298864)
There is a ton of good music out there, probably moreso than ever before. Just not on the radio.

This is my attitude towards music/movies/TV shows. The sheer volume of stuff now makes it a better time than any time previous. We also benefit from the fact that the obscure stuff is far easier to access now, and the stuff you don't like is far easier to ignore.

That being said I think the only new music I've listened to in the past five years has been the new recordings of the artists I already listened to. I remain firmly convinced that there's lots and lots of great music being made right now...I just don't listen to any of it.
   6356. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4298865)
I hate to think this way, but the best thing long-term for the country's political system would be if the county stopped being so afraid of Al Qaeda and started becoming more afraid of China and India.

Yes. I know some cold warriors who basically say, "We had to let the Democrats do all that Big Society stuff so that we could fight the Cold War and save you from the commies. And now that the Cold War is over, that other stuff should go away, too." Poor bastards never realized they were fundamentally changing the nation so that a conservative/libertarian like me has never lived in a nation without a Civil Rights Act or EPA or...you get the idea.


As to China and India, I heard a story on NPR this morning along the lines of: 50 years from now, they will be the two biggest economies in the world and where all the focus is. I don't disagree that that is the trend but can two nations rise to such power next door to each other without coming to blows? We all agreed that a USA and CSA would fight a lot of wars with each other; doesn't the same logic hold with China and India? Maybe we can stay afloat selling them weapons.
   6357. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4298866)
The Jewish vote is interesting. The long-awaited turn to the Republicans seems very unlikely, but there is one demographic shift--the increasing number of Orthodox recentish immigrants--that does seem to be Republican at least in local races in NY. I have a hard time seeing the secular Jewish vote changing too much, but could imagine the overall numbers shifting as more and more of these people vote.
   6358. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4298867)
China and India are interesting because they are both so huge and so very different from each other in how they are going about modernizing. Since I am in IT I have several good friends who are from India (and some who still live there) and their perspective is fascinating.

One of the biggest things both share seems to be endemic governmental corruption. Which I thinks put a big barrier in both their ongoing future success. Not impossible, but it makes it harder. Of course they both have far enough to go that there is plenty of growth left in both.
   6359. Mefisto Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4298868)
I see 2 Dem voting non-christian white demographics groups left that the GOP has a near future shot at picking up support from- Jews and Asians (and I think it's likely their share of the Jewish vote is going to increase)


Asians voted for Obama 3-1. Unless the Rs truly repudiate the racism (Asians, blacks, Latinos, Muslims, decent whites) and Christian fundamentalism (Jews, gays), I can't see them making many inroads.

Short term, that repudiation will be costly because their base will stay at home. Long term it's essential.

   6360. zonk Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4298869)
It will be a good test of Obama's foreign policy chops to see how he handles Israel and Bibi (most of which we will never see).


If Kadima could ever learn to coalition build on the left the way Likud has on the right, he could faux-endorse the challenger!
   6361. Greg K Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4298870)
Clearly Paradox needs to make a 21st century game so we can get a better idea of how this is all going to play out.
   6362. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4298871)
(If everyone who claims to have been "into R.E.M. in the 80's" had actually been into R.E.M. during the 80's it wouldn't have taken until the 90's for R.E.M. to break, etc.)


So you are a southerner- is it really true that the slurred lyrics on stuff like Radio Free Europe were because Stipe was drunk whenever he recorded their early songs? Even stuff that seems clear, like Drive 8, really weren't...

And why didn't Drivin and Cryin ever catch on? I mean Straight to Hell is the greatest country song of all time (Note I'm not a country fan and Drivin and Cryin were not a country band, so what I just said may upset actual country fans, too bad)
   6363. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4298872)
The problem is that you were born 20 years too late. (smile) Check out Lorraine Ellison, Linda Jones, Bobby Blue Bland, the early Motown or Stax, the young Otis Redding, or any one of hundreds of singers and groups whose names are now sometimes remembered and sometimes not.


I have to admit I know a good deal about Motown (being from there) but a few of those I've never heard before. Otis Redding is a national treasure, I'll readily admit.

I see 2 Dem voting non-christian white demographics groups left that the GOP has a near future shot at picking up support from- Jews and Asians


In all of the talk about AA's and Latinos, I'd love to hear a reasonable explanation for why Asians voted so overwhelmingly. Asian/AA populations as a whole aren't especially supportive of each other. I don't think anyone would classify Asians as Paul Ryan's taker class. Yet, Obama swamped Romney with them. I obviously have my thoughts on why, but I'd love to hear Joe justify that demo's votes in this election.
   6364. Mefisto Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4298874)
We all agreed that a USA and CSA would fight a lot of wars with each other; doesn't the same logic hold with China and India?


There's a major difference. Separating the US and a hypothetical CSA would have been a major river which both sides needed. Separating China and India is the world's biggest mountain range, which is damn near impassable for large numbers of troops.

I personally doubt either country will be dominant in just 50 years. Too many problems. The US is still poised to be on top (though less so relatively) if we can just get our #### together. That means we need to avoid the lunatic economic policies of the Rs and libertarians.
   6365. Lassus Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4298875)
As to China and India, I heard a story on NPR this morning along the lines of: 50 years from now, they will be the two biggest economies in the world and where all the focus is. I don't disagree that that is the trend but can two nations rise to such power next door to each other without coming to blows? We all agreed that a USA and CSA would fight a lot of wars with each other; doesn't the same logic hold with China and India? Maybe we can stay afloat selling them weapons.

Is being the third biggest economy in the world such a horriblicious event? Somebody has to be third.

You have to wonder if India and China won't see that everyone's better off if they coooperate to make bazillions of dollars rather than fight for a decimation that would simply destroy the planet in nuclear hellfire at that point.
   6366. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4298876)
I obviously have my thoughts on why, but I'd love to hear Joe justify that demo's votes in this election.


NTR Joe, but I am guessing it is because they entered the country from the Left Coast. We need more immigrants from the Right Coast!

It's a joke kids. Off to lunch.
   6367. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4298878)
Charles Krauthammer is always good for a chuckle:

They lose and immediately the chorus begins. Republicans must change or die. A rump party of white America, it must adapt to evolving demographics or forever be the minority.

The only part of this that is even partially true regards Hispanics.


Mmm-hmm.

They should be a natural Republican constituency: striving immigrant community, religious, Catholic, family-oriented and socially conservative (on abortion, for example). The principal reason they go Democratic is the issue of illegal immigrants.


Mmm-hmm.

For the party ... the problem ... requires but a single policy change: Border fence plus amnesty. Yes, amnesty. Use the word. Shock and awe — full legal normalization (just short of citizenship) in return for full border enforcement...

Imagine Marco Rubio advancing such a policy on the road to 2016. It would transform the landscape. He’d win the Hispanic vote. Yes, win it.


Of course he would. Mexican-Americans will get right behind Marco Rubio.

The other part of the current lament is that the Republican Party consistently trails among blacks, young people and (unmarried) women. (Republicans are plus-7 among married women.) But this is not for reasons of culture, identity or even affinity. It is because these constituencies tend to be more politically liberal — and Republicans are the conservative party.


Why exactly is it that these constituencies tend to be more politically liberal? Oh, they just do. Okay.

Republicans lost the election not because they advanced a bad argument but because they advanced a good argument not well enough. Romney ran a solid campaign, but he is by nature a Northeastern moderate. He sincerely adopted the new conservatism but still spoke it as a second language.

More Ford ’76 than Reagan ’80, Romney is a transitional figure, both generationally and ideologically. Behind him, the party has an extraordinarily strong bench.


This ought to be good ...

In Congress — Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Kelly Ayotte, (the incoming) Ted Cruz and others. And the governors — Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker, Nikki Haley, plus former governor Jeb Bush and the soon-retiring Mitch Daniels. (Chris Christie is currently in rehab.)

They were all either a little too young or just not personally prepared to run in 2012. No longer. There may not be a Reagan among them,


Ya think?

but this generation of rising leaders is philosophically rooted and politically fluent in the new constitutional conservatism.

Ignore the trimmers. There’s no need for radical change. The other party thinks it owns the demographic future — counter that in one stroke by fixing the Latino problem.


One stroke, suckas.

Romney is a good man who made the best argument he could, and nearly won. He would have made a superb chief executive, but he (like the Clinton machine) could not match Barack Obama in the darker arts of public persuasion.

The answer to Romney’s failure is not retreat, not aping the Democrats’ patchwork pandering. It is to make the case for restrained, rationalized and reformed government in stark contradistinction to Obama’s increasingly unsustainable big-spending, big-government paternalism.


See, when you use words like "contradistinction," you're to be taken SERIOUSLY.

   6368. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4298879)
Our GDP per capita will be way ahead of theirs, so I don't see aggregate GDP as the only measure. I mean life is pretty good in places like Switzerland, and Singapore and other countries with very high GDP per capita but not especially high GDP (because of smaller populations.) We are 6-10 on many measures of GDP per capita. I'd be more worried if we fell a bunch there than if we dropped from #1 to #3 in aggregate GDP. We aren't a big enough population to hold that spot forever.
   6369. Greg K Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4298883)
Is being the third biggest economy in the world such a horriblicious event? Somebody has to be third.

That's always my initial reaction to the discussion of China or India taking over #1. Obviously a lot depends on what kind of China becomes dominant. But speaking as someone from a country that isn't even in the discussion, it's not so terrible not being #1.

And from earlier.
Being a fan of big government is part and parcel of having a sense of country. We are really only patriotic when it comes to foreign wars, and it shows in the lack of institutional cohesion.

Not saying you're wrong, but that is not at all the image most of the rest of the world receives about America - patriotism can sometimes seem like its defining characteristic. It's interesting how different the perspective can be from inside/outside.
   6370. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4298886)
could not match Barack Obama in the darker arts of public persuasion


This is my favorite. Aren't the "dark arts of public persuasion" pretty much just politics of getting elected?
   6371. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4298888)
Charles Krauthammer is always good for a chuckle:


He was hilarious on Tuesday night declaring that Obama didn't have a mandate because of the popular vote before the west coast was counted.
   6372. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4298890)
Is being the third biggest economy in the world such a horriblicious event? Somebody has to be third.


That's always my initial reaction to the discussion of China or India taking over #1. Obviously a lot depends on what kind of China becomes dominant. But speaking as someone from a country that isn't even in the discussion, it's not so terrible not being #1.


Sorry, I didn't mean to imply not being #1 would be bad (though I'd like it to be because others got better, not us worse).

My only point was: can the world's two largest economies share a long (albeit very tall) border, hold dissimilar cultures and not clash?

I don't think it's ever been done.
   6373. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4298891)
We all agreed that a USA and CSA would fight a lot of wars with each other; doesn't the same logic hold with China and India? Maybe we can stay afloat selling them weapons.


The Russians have beaten us to this. China's aircraft carrier, Russian-made. India's newest aircraft carrier, Russian-made. As are the jets that will be flying off of those carriers.
   6374. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4298892)
House Speaker John Boehner convened a press conference Friday to say he would prefer extending all Bush-era tax cuts until 2013, including cuts for the wealthy.


Shocking!
   6375. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:21 PM (#4298893)
The Russians have beaten us to this.


I am pretty sure US still leads in military exports.
   6376. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4298894)
Also, I think Kraut is on to something. I think if the Rs run the right guy AND change their policies, they can do well in the Latino vote. But it will take top to bottom alteration. The message to Latinos (and minorities) must change a lot. And the policies must change some.

Given those two things, I'd think Jeb is the go-to guy. For obvious reasons. Yes, he's a Bush. But, you know, Bushes are batting .750 in general elections.
   6377. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4298898)
But, you know, Bushes are batting .750 in general elections.


.667. They reached on an error in their 3rd PA.

(I'm kidding.)
   6378. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4298900)
Any thoughts on whether this could finally be the moment to take down the Senate filibuster? Hard to picture but if there were ever a moment this would be it.
   6379. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4298901)
Bushes are batting .750 in general elections.


Bush v Clinton!

Clintons' are 100% in General elections!

Seriously though I really hope it is not Bush v Clinton in 2016. That would just be depressing (even though I like Team Blue's chances).

EDIT: And I am jealous of 6380 and 6381.
   6380. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4298902)
But, you know, Bushes are batting .750 in general elections.

But according to some, the BABIP is only .500. </ducking>
   6381. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:28 PM (#4298903)

.667. They reached on an error in their 3rd PA.

(I'm kidding.)


Awesome. I was thinking of how to work that in, and expecting a correction to .500.

Should have gone with intentional walk, though - ROE counts as an AB.
   6382. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4298905)
Any thoughts on whether this could finally be the moment to take down the Senate filibuster?


It has a really good chance of being modified. Don't know if it will be eliminated.

From now until inauguration cold be pretty interesting actually, which is unusual (though I suppose last time it was interesting too, in a terrifying way).
   6383. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4298906)
[6377] .667? Ah-hem, better review your baseball rulebook.

EDIT: I guess I owe you a cold drink.
   6384. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4298909)
Seriously though I really hope it is not Bush v Clinton in 2016. That would just be depressing (even though I like Team Blue's chances).

I really wouldn't mind. Jeb is not his brother. I think he is maybe the one guy in the Republican party that can bring in enough folks from the middle - not to mention Latinos - in without alienating the base. His intellect is probably overrated (from standing next to his brother so often) but he isn't a dumb guy and from what I can tell is thoughtful. I think he'd be a fine president. And Hillary, if she's still got the energy, would be a good president, too.

I can't honestly think of anyone else in the R party who is both likely to run, might win, and I would like. Ditto the Democrats. I'd be fine with these two.
   6385. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4298910)
To stand apart from the leftists here, I really don't want the filibuster to go away. I'd like to see them make people actually filibuster but I like having a mechanism to keep a simple majority from running away with itself.

And if you disagree, fine. Ask yourself how you'll feel in 2015 if the Rs take over the Senate.
   6386. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:38 PM (#4298912)
The Jewish vote is interesting. The long-awaited turn to the Republicans seems very unlikely, but there is one demographic shift--the increasing number of Orthodox recentish immigrants--that does seem to be Republican at least in local races in NY. I have a hard time seeing the secular Jewish vote changing too much, but could imagine the overall numbers shifting as more and more of these people vote.

All we need is a crew of liberal Breitbarts to rent some Tea Party costumes at the Halloween store and start passing out cheeseburgers at the polling places. And then as a backup, we change Election Day to sundown Friday to sundown Saturday.

----------------------------------------------------

Ignore the trimmers. There’s no need for radical change. The other party thinks it owns the demographic future — counter that in one stroke by fixing the Latino problem.


One stroke, suckas.

In 1951 Collier's Magazine published a special issue on World War III (cover), where the U.S.-led U.N. troops smashed the Soviets into smithereens after an atom bomb was dropped on Washington. It ended with a women's fashion show in Moscow in 1960. Prominent figures from all over the spectrum contributed to it, as a "warning" to the Commies to stop messing with us. A total camp classic, though unfortunately most of the rest of the world saw it as a sign of total U.S. hysteria.

I. F. Stone reviewed it with one succinct headline:

Easy, One Hand: Collier's Wipes Out Russia.

   6387. robinred Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4298913)
Also, I think Kraut is on to something.


He's oversimplifying, due to his bias and his ignorance. First, IME, and there is data to back this as well, most of the group we call "Latinos" prefer to think of and talk about themselves based on country/ies of origin and as HW and others have noted, they are not an amorphous, monolithic block, and have the same class/age/gender/education/religion division that whites and other groups have. Krauthammer's assumption that Rubio will kick ass with all "Latino" voters in his scenario is just partisan fanboyism. Second, Rubio is Cuban, which is only one relatively small part of the people Kraut is calling "Latino." I will assume that CK mentioned this and Treder didn't quote it, to give CK the BOTD.

That said, the Democrats talking about the GOP being done, going down, etc are far overstating that case for the same reasons as well. The GOP isn't going anywhere, and it will be a major factor in future elections and governance. Obama is back in charge in a nation with huge problems, some of his victory was simply due to his organization, back story, and personality, and it is tough to win three straight in any case. But this idea of the "quick Latino fix--good to go" is just another example of how pundits miss the boat by oversimplifying to cater to parts of their readership, and/or because they are ignorant themselves.
   6388. Danny Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4298915)
Back to Nate Silver. Sam Wang says he called the North Dakota Senate race by relying on the polling data, and Silver missed it because he adjusted the polling data for other factors.

But it looks to me like Silver missed it because he didn't use the latest polls in his polling average. Heitkamp was ahead in four of the last five public polls in North Dakota (two by Mellman and two by Pharos), but Silver doesn't list any of those polls in his ND-Sen polls on the fivethirtyeight page. Silver used the Mellman polls in Ohio, so it's not like he systematically excludes them. It may not have been enough to overcome the North Dakota adjustments Silver used (his adjusted polling average was Berg +2.9 and his projected vote share was Berg +5.6), but it would have made it a helluva lot closer.
   6389. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:42 PM (#4298917)
Second, Rubio is Cuban, which is only one relatively small part of the people Kraut is calling "Latino." I will assume that CK mentioned this and Treder didn't quote it, to give CK the BOTD.

He didn't. He makes no mention of this rather pertinent, though inconvenient, fact.

But this idea of the "quick Latino fix--good to go" is just another example of how pundits miss the boat by oversimplifying to cater to parts of their readership, and/or because they are ignorant themselves.

Yep.
   6390. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4298918)
Jews have been just about to vote for the GOP forever now. Any minute. No really this time. It might happen, but I'll believe it when I see it.


It will happen right before the Rapture, when Republican Jesus comes and kills all the Jews for not accepting his salvation. What a glorious day it will be!
   6391. robinred Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4298921)
He didn't.


Fair enough. I didn't want to click on it. That simply reinforces the point, as you suggest.
   6392. Mefisto Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4298922)
In the long run, the filibuster hurts the Dems. The reason is that it's hard for them to get a majority because the Senate is gerrymandered. When they do get a majority, they can't use it because of the filibuster. When they're in the minority, they can't use the filibuster because they don't operate as a Parliamentary party like the Republicans do. In addition, the Rs are willing to ignore the filibuster in ways the Dems haven't (yet) been willing to do (the 2003 tax cuts being the most egregious example).
   6393. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4298923)
In 1951 Collier's Magazine published a special issue on World War III (cover),

Wow.
   6394. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4298924)
And if you disagree, fine. Ask yourself how you'll feel in 2015 if the Rs take over the Senate.

Completely agree.
Probably my favorite clip of the entire election season was the guy going around the DNC asking Dems if they'd support a President Romney with a kill list.
Watching them pretend not to know what he was talking about was the very definition of funny/sad.
   6395. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4298925)

He's oversimplifying, due to his bias and his ignorance. First, IME, and there is data to back this as well, most of the group we call "Latinos" prefer to think of and talk about themselves based on country/ies of origin and as HW and others have noted, they are not an amorphous, monolithic block, and have the same class/age/gender/education/religion division that whites and other groups have. Krauthammer's assumption that Rubio will kick ass with all "Latino" voters in his scenario is just partisan fanboyism. Second, Rubio is Cuban, which is only one relatively small part of the people Kraut is calling "Latino." I will assume that CK mentioned this and Treder didn't quote it, to give CK the BOTD.

That said, the Democrats talking about the GOP being done, going down, etc are far overstating that case for the same reasons as well. The GOP isn't going anywhere, and it will be a major factor in future elections and governance. Obama is back in charge in a nation with huge problems, some of his victory was simply due to his organization, back story, and personality, and it is tough to win three straight in any case. But this idea of the "quick Latino fix--good to go" is just another example of how pundits miss the boat by oversimplifying to cater to parts of their readership, and/or because they are ignorant themselves.


Two things about this: 1) the Rs don't have to WIN the Latino vote. They need to get less pasted. 2) That's why I said policies, themselves must change and that Jeb is the guy to get this done, not Rubio. A Cuban-American calling for a hard-wall on the US/Mexican border is not what I'd call good salesmanship.


EDIT: W did well enough with the Latino vote and had a very out-of-step with his party POV on the immigration issue. Note to Rs: let the Bushes win that debate.
   6396. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4298926)
So you are a southerner- is it really true that the slurred lyrics on stuff like Radio Free Europe were because Stipe was drunk whenever he recorded their early songs? Even stuff that seems clear, like Drive 8, really weren't...


I suspect Stipe was drinking during the recording sessions - they were a rock band, they were always drinking. But I don't think he was just too sloshed to enunciate. Part of that effect is that Stipe has always been extremely self-conscious and averse to attention. If he were to grow up today, he'd probably be diagnosed with some sort of social disfunction of some sort or another; social anxiety disorder or something like that. It's an odd thing for a front man to have, but Stipe has always been extremely introverted like that. Part of the vocal sound of the early R.E.M. catalog is due to this; Stipe just mumbles the lyrics, because he mumbles pretty much everything. The other part is a intentional affect; the mumbles is part of what R.E.M. is attempting to accomplish artistically. Stipe *wants* to be a smeared blur of a personality, in direct opposition to the idea of a "rock band's lead singer" that was prevalent at the time.

And why didn't Drivin and Cryin ever catch on? I mean Straight to Hell is the greatest country song of all time (Note I'm not a country fan and Drivin and Cryin were not a country band, so what I just said may upset actual country fans, too bad)


It's weird to hear "why didn't D&C ever catch on?" You still can't get deep into a bar-band* set in the south without eventually hitting a cover of "Honeysuckle Blue." If they are looking to cache some old school cred, they'll throw "Scarred But Smarter" in there as well. D&C is pretty much a staple of the southern rock set in my world. I think they never really broke further than their sophomore album and "Honeysuckle Blue" as the single because they were essentially a cow-punk band a few years ahead of their time, and HB was the absolute height of their ability to write a catchy pop tune. Their followup albums were far more aligned to the nascent alt-country scene, mirroring a little harder edge Uncle Tupelo and/or Wilco than anything else. It also helped that Kevin Kinney sort of went freak-show weird for a while there after his brush with fame.
   6397. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4298927)
but he (like the Clinton machine) could not match Barack Obama in the darker arts of public persuasion.

That's an ... odd ... construction.

"Darker" is a bizarre word there. Very bizarre.
   6398. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:51 PM (#4298928)
Should have gone with intentional walk, though - ROE counts as an AB.


D'oh. Stupid me. Intentional walk is too generous. .500 BA, .750 OPB due to HBP?
   6399. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:52 PM (#4298932)
D'oh. Stupid me. Intentional walk is too generous. .500 BA, .750 OPB due to HBP?

Catcher's interference.
   6400. Mefisto Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:55 PM (#4298934)
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