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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   6401. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4298935)
And if you disagree, fine. Ask yourself how you'll feel in 2015 if the Rs take over the Senate.


It is a good question, but I am still in favor of reform. Filibuster is just a bit too undemocratic, or put another way there are plenty of veto points to prevent action built into the system - in the modern configuration of parties and partisanship I don't think the filibuster is a good idea any more (if it ever was).

Shorter answer: Elections should have consequences and historically high levels of use of the filibuster shouldn't be one of them.

Aside: Hey I don't want kill lists in the hands of any president, but I am in a minority on that one.
   6402. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4298936)
That's an ... odd ... construction.

"Darker" is a bizarre word there. Very bizarre.


Agreed.
   6403. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4298937)
Catcher's interference.


Agreed.
   6404. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4298938)
Sam's just a "yes" man.
   6405. Ron J2 Posted: November 09, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4298939)
Interesting post on the aggregators. Turns out that while Nate did better than anybody else (generally not by a huge margin) what actually worked best was to aggregate them.

Link

The post also contains both the overall standard error of each and the standard error weighted by electoral votes. (Everybody did better on the weighted metric because several of the large states were pretty easy)
   6406. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4298940)
Shorter answer: Elections should have consequences and historically high levels of use of the filibuster shouldn't be one of them.

I don't disagree and I don't like what the filibuster has become. But it has its place. There needs to be a fairly high cost to carrying one out, though. It should be hard and dramatic. It shouldn't be leaking that you're going to do it.

So, I'm all for reform.

   6407. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4298944)
I don't disagree and I don't like what the filibuster has become. But it has its place. There needs to be a fairly high cost to carrying one out, though. It should be hard and dramatic. It shouldn't be leaking that you're going to do it.

So, I'm all for reform.


Me too. There's got to be some kind of a sensible middle ground between no filibuster at all and what we have now. I hope it can be negotiated.
   6408. McCoy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4298945)
The problem is that you were listening to the wrong music. R&B was in its hey-day with Michael Jackson, Prince, Earth, Wind & Fire and Whitney Houston. Plus, House music and techno were coming out of Detroit where I grew up. I was a kid then, but that was a golden age of music.

I hated all of that.
   6409. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4298946)
I hated all of that.

I didn't hate it, but it sure as hell wasn't R&B's heyday.
   6410. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4298947)
And if you disagree, fine. Ask yourself how you'll feel in 2015 if the Rs take over the Senate.
If a party has the presidency and a functioning majority of both houses, they should get to use it. If a party only has 2 of those 3, then there'll be limitations to them, which is also fair enough. (In 2015, Obama would presumably veto a bill that the R Senate could pass 52-48 but not get over filibuster.)

If the Senate is close to evenly divided, getting a handful of the other side should be a pass, not getting 20% of the other side.

Ending the filibuster (and holds!) would also allow the President to do what the President is supposed to be able to do, appoint officials and judges. Voting against judges is perfectly fair, but holding them up because they can only get 59 votes is silly. If the Senate is held by the opposite party, then the White House will have to deal with that as Clinton and Hatch did in the 90s. But letting individual senators hold up appointments is dumb, and letting 40 senators block them, is not reasonable.

In terms of the kill list question, I dislike having it in Obama's hands and would dislike just as much having it in Romney's. The problem is the one the Adams/Jefferson transition suggested; people out of power critique government, but new executives are not likely to feel as constrained once they're sworn in. I don't know how to get out of that cycle. In the 19th century it happened when Congress asserted its authority over the President, which has its own challenges. But I don't see that happening soon.
   6411. Rants Mulliniks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:07 PM (#4298950)
Tamales are where it is at


...coming back after lunch....

Mock me if you will, but I'm going total pioneer this fall. I grew some Oaxacan Green Dent corn this year and am going to try my hand at making my own masa for tamales and tortillas. I've never nixtamalized corn before, but if peasants can do it, I can.
   6412. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4298951)
"Darker" is a bizarre word there. Very bizarre.


Followed by "aping" in the next sentence. Presumably Obama was too profligate with spending to be considered niggardly.
   6413. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4298952)
Chuck Todd tweets:
The setup for POTUS fiscal cliff remarks. Keeping press so far away, can't even shout questions
I told Todd he can thank the Daily Caller's Neil Munro for the distance to the POTUS.
   6414. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4298962)
Ending the filibuster (and holds!)

We may as well drop the filibuster argument as we're unlikely to resolve anything. But, yeah, holds are stupid.
   6415. rr Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4298964)
Jeb is the guy to get this done


I don't think the Bush brand would play well with swing voters at this point. Might be better in 2016, but in addition, Jeb, whatever his merits, is not a "fresh face." I also think that running a third guy from the same family for POTUS might strike people as being too dynastic. The Kennedys of course wanted to do this; we will never know how it would have turned out.

Hillary would have some of the same problems, and other ones, but I think the Clinton brand is stronger in the center.
   6416. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4298965)
D&C is pretty much a staple of the southern rock set in my world.


the ONLY thing that ever got airtime up here was To Build a Fire.

I think they never really broke further than their sophomore album and "Honeysuckle Blue" as the single


Since you mentioned Scarred but Smarter I presume you are overlooking Whisper Tames the Lion, which song and album are imho far catchier than Mystery Road, as was Fly Me Courageous- but UI can see someone not seeing Fly Me as "really" a Dryvin N Cryin Album...
   6417. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4298966)
We may as well drop the filibuster argument as we're unlikely to resolve anything.


Are you trying to break this thread? If that was the reason to drop arguments the whole internet would dry up (excepting porn of course).
   6418. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4298969)
Jeb, whatever his merits, is not a "fresh face.

These are Republicans you're talking about. There will be no fresh faces.
   6419. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4298970)
Well the stock market is up today so all is well, right???
   6420. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4298972)
but UI can see someone not seeing Fly Me as "really" a Dryvin N Cryin Album...


Weird, it's the only one of theirs I ever owned, I just sort of assumed that was the way they sounded on all the albums I didn't have any interest in afterwards. Fly Me Courageous, wasn't bad, just nothing special it seemed.
   6421. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4298975)
If that was the reason to drop arguments the whole internet would dry up (excepting porn of course).

Pretty sure porn has a resolution.
   6422. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:23 PM (#4298978)
Pretty sure porn has a resolution.

If it doesn't, you're doing it wrong.
   6423. rr Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:23 PM (#4298980)
There will be no fresh faces.


Heh. That has been their MO; I think they may change it after going O-for-Bama (easy college football joke in there).

I certainly agree that the GOP can make inroads into groups of voters we call "Latinos" if they are smart about it, but I definitely don't think it will be as easy as Rubio + immigration.
   6424. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:24 PM (#4298983)
Followed by "aping" in the next sentence. Presumably Obama was too profligate with spending to be considered niggardly.

Wow, you're right. If that doesn't go viral, I give up trying to understand these things.

There's really no construction of "darker" that makes sense other than a racialist one. The arts of public persuasion aren't dark, they're lofty (*), and there's no subset of public rhetoric for which "darker" even comes close to a serious description. (Not that Krauthammer gives us any reason to believe he was talking about a subset.)

(*) The great public rhetoricians have been publicly celebrated for millenia, in nearly every society.

   6425. DA Baracus Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4298986)
Heh. That has been their MO; I think they may change it after going O-for-Bama (easy college football joke in there).


The GOP is South Carolina football? That might work on a number of levels.
   6426. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4298987)
There's really no construction of "darker" that makes sense other than a racialist one.


I actually thought of the race angle when I first quoted the bit last page, but decided against going down that road. Trying to think the best of other people I guess.
   6427. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4298989)
There's really no construction of "darker" that makes sense other than a racialist one. The arts of public persuasion aren't dark, they're lofty (*), and there's no subset of public rhetoric for which "darker" even comes close to a serious description. (Not that Krauthammer gives us any reason to believe he was talking about a subset.)
Right the dark arts of politics are using gossip and tricks against opponents. No one calls persuasion a dark art.
   6428. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4298992)
Probably not Karl Rove's best week ever.

Following his failed plan to spend super PAC money to beat President Obama and flip the Senate, the Republican strategist accused president Obama of voter suppression. During a Fox News appearance on Thursday, Rove insisted that President Obama won reelection because he “succeeded in suppressing the vote” by airing negative ads that “turned off” voters. But even Fox News host Megyn Kelly was not buying it, interrupting Rove to say, “But he won, Karl, he won!"
   6429. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:29 PM (#4298993)
And then "aping" within twenty words.

Maybe I'm way off, but that's jaw-dropping.
   6430. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4299002)
Maybe I'm way off, but that's jaw-dropping.


I'm going to say you're not off. In fact, I'm going to say that if it were me or Andy or one of the other folks who regularly "hear the dog whistle" and argue it here, it would perhaps be off. But the fact that it jumps at *you*...
   6431. McCoy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4299006)
Think your vote doesn't matter?

Robert McDonald has learned the hard way that every vote really does count.

The candidate for Kentucky's Walton City Council finds himself tied with rival Olivia Ballou for the sixth seat at 669 votes each. Most likely, the race will be decided by a coin toss. But it could have been decided by McDonald's wife, Katie, who didn't make it out to vote.

   6432. rr Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4299008)
Obviously, I don't know what is in Krauthammer's head (right now, I see him as getting the same brain X-ray results as Ralph Kramden) but the "darker" thing just struck me as a coincidental, if mildly ill-advised, word choice. I thought he was just doing the George Will thing or AnyPundiThing: the other side is wrong and dumber than Tommy Lasorda's dogs, so when they win, it is because they cheated somehow and the public is gullible and lazy. If Krauthammer actually stuck aping and darker in there as some sort of racialism, then he is even more ignorant about these issues than I thought. If the argument is that it was a Freudian slip revealing racialist animus...well, I don't like the guy, but I would give him the BOTD there.
   6433. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4299009)
Pretty sure porn has a resolution.

If it doesn't, you're doing it wrong.


It depends on the resolution. Its not so great in HD.
   6434. DA Baracus Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:44 PM (#4299011)
Most likely, the race will be decided by a coin toss.


Oh, Kentucky. This does not surprise me.

But it could have been decided by McDonald's wife, Katie, who didn't make it out to vote.


This is good writing. Had she voted he might be down a vote.

   6435. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:44 PM (#4299012)
Obviously, I don't know what is in Krauthammer's head (right now, I see him as getting the same brain X-ray results as Ralph Kramden) but the "darker" thing just struck me as a coincidental, if mildly ill-advised, word choice. I thought he was just doing the George Will thing or AnyPundiThing: the other side is wrong and dumber than Tommy Lasorda's dogs, when they win, it is because they cheated somehow and the public is gullible and lazy.

Agreed, I didn't take it that way. I interpreted that he was inferring "black magic" kind of wizardry, not a racial thing.

If Krauthammer actually stuck aping and darker in there as some sort of racialism, he is even dumber about these issues than I thought. If the argument is that it was a Freudian slip revealing racialist animus...well, I don't like the guy, but I would give him the BOTD there.

Me too. His shallowness and refusal to even begin to question his own assumptions is enough to render him foolish. I don't perceive a dog whistle here on top of that.
   6436. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4299013)
Obviously, I don't know what is in Krauthammer's head (right now, I see him as getting the same brain X-ray results as Ralph Kramden) but the "darker" thing just struck me as a coincidental, if mildly ill-advised, word choice. I thought he was just doing the George Will thing or AnyPundiThing: the other side is wrong and dumber than Tommy Lasorda's dogs, when they win, it is because they cheated somehow and the public is gullible and lazy. If Krauthammer actually stuck aping and darker in there as some sort of racialism, he is even dumber about these issues than I thought. If the argument is that it was a Freudian slip revealing racialist animus...well, I don't like the guy, but I would give him the BOTD there.


It's hard to imagine a buddy of John Podhertz would have underlying racial issues, right?
   6437. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4299014)
I think at the very least what was in his head is that the President isn't just a man, the President is a black man.(*) There's nothing ####### "dark" about the "arts of public persuasion."

That, to me, is almost the core definition of a racist.

Those were appalling sentences. I'd fire the ####### guy.

(*) Or, worse, that even though he has achieved the office of the presidency -- twice -- he is still defined primarily by his blackness.
   6438. DA Baracus Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4299018)
Paul Broun, the Congressman and doctor who said "All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and Big Bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of hell" got 80% of his home county's votes. The other 20% went to write in Charles Darwin.
   6439. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4299021)
Let's just be clear -- this isn't Steve Lyons or Don Imus, this is a practiced and accomplished wordsmith. He doesn't use words "accidentially."
   6440. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4299024)
I'm going to say you're not off. In fact, I'm going to say that if it were me or Andy or one of the other folks who regularly "hear the dog whistle" and argue it here, it would perhaps be off. But the fact that it jumps at *you*...


Obviously, I don't know what is in Krauthammer's head (right now, I see him as getting the same brain X-ray results as Ralph Kramden) but the "darker" thing just struck me as a coincidental, if mildly ill-advised, word choice. I thought he was just doing the George Will thing or AnyPundiThing: the other side is wrong and dumber than Tommy Lasorda's dogs, so when they win, it is because they cheated somehow and the public is gullible and lazy. If Krauthammer actually stuck aping and darker in there as some sort of racialism, he is even more ignorant about these issues than I thought. If the argument is that it was a Freudian slip revealing racialist animus...well, I don't like the guy, but I would give him the BOTD there.

Glad to see that someone else didn't hear any dog whistling. Krauthammer may be both clueless and reactionary and prone to seeing the dark side of everything liberal, but he's never engaged in Birtherism or anything remotely resembling it. There are plenty of ways to dog whistle, but this wasn't one of them.
   6441. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4299025)
It depends on the resolution. Its not so great in HD.


So we were better off with those grainy movies from the 50s?
   6442. zonk Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4299026)
Paul Broun, the Congressman and doctor who said "All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and Big Bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of hell" got 80% of his home county's votes. The other 20% went to write in Charles Darwin.


If I'm not mistaken, isn't Broun an MD?

EDIT: ahh yess... this is why we don't skip words in sentences we read!
   6443. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4299027)
Let's just be clear -- this isn't Steve Lyons or Don Imus, this is a practiced and accomplished wordsmith. He doesn't use words "accidentially."

You may be right. All I'm saying is that I didn't take it that way when I read it, I just thought it was ridiculous on its own.
   6444. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4299028)
I think at the very least what was in his head is that the President isn't just a man, the President is a black man.(*) There's nothing ####### "dark" about the "arts of public persuasion."

Amazing. Within two sentences you're awarding yourself a PhD in Mind Reading and ignoring the legacy of Karl Rove and Lee Atwater**, neither of whom made a habit of waking up on the sunny side of their caves.

**Not to mention Herr Godwin's propaganda minister.
   6445. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 09, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4299030)
Let's just be clear -- this isn't Steve Lyons or Don Imus, this is a practiced and accomplished wordsmith. He doesn't use words "accidentially."

And here I've always thought I was supposed to be the master of the scare quote.

Of course I should allow for the possibility that everything you've written about this mini-topic is nothing but a big put-on. If so, color me embarrassed, and I apologize.
   6446. zonk Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4299034)
Let's just be clear -- this isn't Steve Lyons or Don Imus, this is a practiced and accomplished wordsmith. He doesn't use words "accidentially."

You may be right. All I'm saying is that I didn't take it that way when I read it, I just thought it was ridiculous on its own.


Ditto...

But that's probably because when I hear or read Krauthammer, all I hear is mwah-mwah-mwah-mwah -- it's Charlie Brown teacher stuff... the words don't matter, it's all new ways to just say the same old thing over and over again.

I find him as repetitive and boring as say, EJ Dionne.
   6447. Rants Mulliniks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4299043)
It depends on the resolution. Its not so great in HD.


On a related note, never go to Montreal for you first strip club experience. Nothing else will ever compare. In the two clubs I was in, every single girl was gorgeous, healthy-looking, in amazing shape and between the ages of 19 and 25. If they weren't smiling, it was because they were mysterious, not pissed off or unhappy.
   6448. Bob Meta-Meusel Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:12 PM (#4299044)
These are Republicans you're talking about. There will be no fresh faces.


I actually did a little math on this, and the average age of the Republican nominees over the last 10 presidential elections (going back to Carter v. Ford in '76) was 66, compared to 53 for the Democrats. G. W. Bush is the only one on the Republican side who was under 60 (both elections, and next was Ford at 63), while Kerry was the only one on the Democrat side who was over 60 (and the next oldest were Mondale and Carter in '80 who were both 56). 2004 was also the only time that the Democrat was the older of the two candidates.

Another thing I found interesting with this election is that if Obama completes his second term, this will be the first time since Jefferson/Madison/Monroe that three consecutive presidents will have served two consecutive full terms each. Pointless trivia, but it amuses me.


   6449. The Good Face Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:18 PM (#4299049)
On a related note, never go to Montreal for you first strip club experience. Nothing else will ever compare. In the two clubs I was in, every single girl was gorgeous, healthy-looking, in amazing shape and between the ages of 19 and 25. If they weren't smiling, it was because they were mysterious, not pissed off or unhappy.


QFT.

Vegas, Atlanta and Houston got nothing on Montreal when it comes to strip clubs.
   6450. Nasty Nate Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:19 PM (#4299050)
To tie the politics and music together, I saw Kevin Kinney of D&C come out and join Gov't Mule for their encore (which included 'Straight To Hell') on the night of the Bush/Gore election.
   6451. rr Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4299053)
about this mini-topic is nothing but a big put-on

This occurred to me as well, given that it is SBB--particularly the line about actually firing Krauthammer.
   6452. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4299054)
this will be the first time since Jefferson/Madison/Monroe that three consecutive presidents will have served two consecutive full terms each

Isn't this the first time since then that 3 consecutive presidents have been elected to 2 terms in a row? (and it's been 4 out of 5) Of course having our 1840 through 1960 streak of "presidents elected in a year divided by 20 dying in office" didn't help matters.
   6453. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4299055)
Vegas, Atlanta and Houston got nothing on Montreal when it comes to strip clubs.

Heh, this reminds me of a time in Montreal where I was out with 2 co-workers and our Montreal strip-club worthy waitress assumed I was the alpha of the table and played up to me all dinner long. Once she saw the woman at our table pull out the corporate card, the waitress never looked at me again.
   6454. Bob Meta-Meusel Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4299058)
It is. My brain just got stuck on not wanting to say it was the first time since then that three consecutive presidents were re-elected because of FDR/Truman/Ike, and somehow I didn't come up with the actual simplest way to do it.
   6455. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:29 PM (#4299060)
I'm surprised that at this point anyone takes anything that Krauthammer seriously. At this point he has pretty much turned into Capt. Pike from the first Star Trek pilot.
   6456. Lassus Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4299061)
QFT. Vegas, Atlanta and Houston got nothing on Montreal when it comes to strip clubs

The first thing, every single time, the absolute first thing I hear about before any other item regarding Montreal as a destination for travel is the strip clubs.
   6457. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4299062)
It won't be so easy for Charles Krauthammer to walk back his spineless choice of words. The man doesn't have a leg to stand on.
   6458. zonk Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:34 PM (#4299063)
QFT. Vegas, Atlanta and Houston got nothing on Montreal when it comes to strip clubs

The first thing, every single time, the absolute first thing I hear about before any other item regarding Montreal as a destination for travel is the strip clubs.


Pity Montreal isn't next door to Colorado... and both aren't next door to Chicago... or I'd have my weekend planned.
   6459. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4299068)
I'm surprised that at this point anyone takes anything that Krauthammer seriously. At this point he has pretty much turned into Capt. Pike from the first Star Trek pilot.

I knew he looked familiar!

I assume Krauthammer (I can just hear Colonel Klink saying that name) is wheelchair bound based on [6457]?
   6460. Don Malcolm Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4299069)
Pointless trivia, but it amuses me.

Love it, too, Bob. Thanks for posting.

A good bit of what follows has been well-covered in the past few pages (you guys have been really carrying the ball lately, making massive amounts of yardage by opening up the holes in the argu--hey, WTF, what's with the football analogy??), but I thought it was still worth posting the numbers...

Year, %
1980, 35
1982, 25
1984, 31
1986, 25
1988, 24
1990, 28
1992, 28
1994, 39
1996, 27
1998, 37
2000, 35
2002, 38
2004, 44
2006, 26
2008, 31
2010, 33
2012, 27

This is the poll data for the percent of votes for Republicans by Hispanics. Note, please, that the big downturn in the percentages in recent times occurs in 2006, which in no way was a point in time when the country was perceived to be in "hard times." The larger long-term pattern in the data suggests that Hispanic flirtation with the Republicans occurred in the 1994-2004 period, with percentages then reverting to their earlier levels from the 80s.

It sure looks as though it was something other than the pocketbook (or the desire for "big government") that contributed to the massive downturn in Republican support from Hispanics that occurred in between 2004-06. The argument that has been so tirelessly repeated here is at best an oversimplification.

As for Krauthammer, he's definitely pushing the line. 75% sour grapes, 25% latent racism. But Sam nailed it awhile back--the morph of the Republicans over the past half-centurey is one of the most harrowing events in American history...the party that freed the slaves (and yes, I know all about the contemporary political undercurrents and that Lincoln was a plaster saint only from the waist down and all that, so don't start on me, please...) is the one that systematically abandons and marginalizes minorities, and then tries to dupe 'em via the classic old "poison the minds of the lower orders" tactics with bent subway tokens like Thomas, Rubio, etc. I think they will continue to try to do this, at least for two-three more election cycles, in the hope that what happened here was an "aberration." Surely they realize by the fact that Latinos in AZ are on the same program as elsewhere in the SW (41% R vote in '08 dropped to 25% this time) that a continuation of the trend will soon put that state in play...adding that to NV, NM, and CO would really make it hard to get back to the White House (thus tossing away 31 EVs that used to be solidly in their pocket).
   6461. JustDan Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4299071)
Another thing I found interesting with this election is that if Obama completes his second term, this will be the first time since Jefferson/Madison/Monroe that three consecutive presidents will have served two consecutive full terms each. Pointless trivia, but it amuses me.


The Republicans have not won a presidential election without a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket since Herbert Hoover (and whoever his VP was, I assume he wasn't named Bush or Nixon).
   6462. McCoy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4299072)
His name was Bixon Nush and he was a helluva squash player.
   6463. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4299074)
I've several pages late at this point, but I read the NY Mag interview of Eric Dondero and I'd like to let him know that he has to change his musical tastes a bit. He said "Neal Peart of Rush called himself an Ayn Randist couple times. I love Rush.", but Peart hasn't really been Randian in, oh, at least 25 years. Maybe he can still listen to the first few CDs, I don't know how his head works.
   6464. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4299076)
The Republicans have not won a presidential election without a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket since Herbert Hoover

the GOP ticket, 2016
   6465. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:50 PM (#4299077)
that Lincoln was a plaster saint only from the waist down

That seems harsh. Lincoln was a complex man, as well as a man of his times and a man who had to deal as complex set of parameters as any president. No, he wasn't a saint but he continually learned and moved in the right direction.

Don, you have some high standards. :)
   6466. The Good Face Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:52 PM (#4299079)
QFT. Vegas, Atlanta and Houston got nothing on Montreal when it comes to strip clubs

The first thing, every single time, the absolute first thing I hear about before any other item regarding Montreal as a destination for travel is the strip clubs.


Well, it's Montreal. What else is there to talk about? Poutine? Fond memories of Les Expos?
   6467. DA Baracus Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:52 PM (#4299081)
the GOP ticket, 2016


If you have both then they will cancel each other out. However you might have a chance if Nish Buxon runs.
   6468. zonk Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4299083)
Wow...

Patraeus resigns as CIA Director - not wholly unexpected that he would be leaving - but apparently, he's resigning because of an affair.
   6469. McCoy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4299084)
I think Otis Nixon would have been a better vote getter. It looks like the GOP has made yet another mistake.
   6470. DA Baracus Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4299085)
Patraeus resigns as CIA Director - not wholly unexpected that he would be leaving - but apparently, he's resigning because of an affair.


The right wing is going to have a field day with that.
   6471. McCoy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4299086)
If your CIA director can't keep an affair secret no one can.
   6472. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 03:59 PM (#4299088)
Mojo Nixon has retired from music and has supported Kinky Freidman's run for Governor in the past, so maybe he could help the ticket.
   6473. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4299090)
the party that freed the slaves (and yes, I know all about the contemporary political undercurrents and that Lincoln was a plaster saint only from the waist down and all that, so don't start on me, please...) is the one that systematically abandons and marginalizes minorities


Herbert Hoover (and whoever his VP was, I assume he wasn't named Bush or Nixon).
Charles Curtis was, no ####, a (roughly) 1/2 American Indian who grew up on a Kaw reservation! Hard to imagine that flying through the convention this year! Talk about dependency; he grew up literally in a dependent nation! He grew up speaking Kansa and French (which would make for a worse negative TV spot now!) The past is weird.
   6474. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4299092)
As for Krauthammer, he's definitely pushing the line. 75% sour grapes, 25% latent racism.

I'd call it a mix of embarrassment about his nearly Literary Digest-sized misprediction, his hatred of Obama's distinctly non-neocon foreign policy, and his contempt for pretty much everything about 21st century liberalism in general. The first and the third parts go into the sour grapes category, but the second part represents the true core of his belief system. You have to remember that in the 70's and 80's he was a major contributor to Marty Peretz's New Republic, a Scoop Jackson Cold War Democrat who went over to Reagan almost entirely because of foreign policy issues. On domestic issues he's a more recent convert to the rest of the GOP baggage, but at heart he's a man who just hates anything that remotely smacks of formal racial favoritism, while at the same time being oblivious to the sort of structural racism that still lingers in much of our society. Utterly typical Republican in that respect.

And then there's the whole wheelchair bit. Without trying to get into psychobabble, it's hard to believe that this hasn't had some effect in reinforcing his belief system. As a minor side note, he used to buy books from me on a fairly regular basis, but never once did he come into the shop, with its narrow and somewhat cluttered aisles**, instead always letting his wife pick them out and pick them up for him. She's a hell of a good woman, BTW, and it's no cliche to say that he'd almost certainly be lost without her.

**Though other such customers did come in and got around without any particular trouble.
   6475. rr Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4299094)
I put this in another thread, but I will repeat it here.

Rank the Nixons in order of personal preference:

Richard
Mojo
Cynthia
Norm
Otis
Donnell
Russ
   6476. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4299096)
Well, we know which ones you'd put on the top and on the bottom.
   6477. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4299098)
If you dont got mojo nixon, then your store could use some fixin
   6478. Lassus Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4299099)
Mojo Nixon has retired from music and has supported Kinky Freidman's run for Governor in the past, so maybe he could help the ticket.

My college yearbook photo is a picture of me after I had jumped onstage with Mojo Nixon, performing in a bar in the San Jacintos.
   6479. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4299100)
George HW
George W
Jeb
Two-in-the
   6480. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:11 PM (#4299103)
Lassus, you just moved up several notches on my favorite poster list!
   6481. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4299105)
Wow. MSNBC saying Petraeus' other woman is/was an aide to Sen.-elect Warren.
   6482. McCoy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4299106)
Kate
Barbara
Laura
   6483. spike Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4299109)
Wow. MSNBC saying Petraeus' other woman is/was an aide to Sen.-elect Warren.

I guess you might say....(removes sunglasses)
the surge didn't work after all.
YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

   6484. McCoy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4299110)
And Warren appointed Peraeus' wife to a position in her office when she was a politcal appointee back in 2011.
   6485. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4299111)
And my wife thinks there were cat fights in the doctor's offices she's worked in!
   6486. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4299112)
It sure looks as though it was something other than the pocketbook (or the desire for "big government") that contributed to the massive downturn in Republican support from Hispanics that occurred in between 2004-06. The argument that has been so tirelessly repeated here is at best an oversimplification.

what happened between 2004-06 is obvious- Bush put forward an immigration reform plan and the nativists went nuts -

so in a sense JoeK is right- discussing immigration reform doesn't help the Rs- at best it's neutral at worst the Nativists start blogging and calling talk radio... and in a sense he's also obviously wrong- Dubya was pushing the needle to the right WRT the Hispanic vote - and that progress went poof thanks to the overly vocalized "Arpaio" faction
   6487. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4299113)
1. Dr. Hugo T. Quacken
2. Push, Push, in the
3. Burning
4. Irving For
   6488. Morty Causa Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4299114)
I hated all of that.

I didn't hate it, but it sure as hell wasn't R&B's heyday.

Was it even R&B?
   6489. esseff Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4299115)
And Warren appointed Peraeus' wife to a position in her office when she was a politcal appointee back in 2011.


OK, I'm going to need charts and graphs to sort this out.
   6490. zonk Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4299116)
Andrew Jackson's revolt of the petticoats?
   6491. esseff Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4299117)
Donie
Homer
Randy
Guy
   6492. Ron J2 Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4299118)
What else is there to talk about?


Montreal used to be one of the great cities in the world for food. It's no longer in the first tier of places to eat, but it's still none too shabby on the eating front.
   6493. zonk Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4299121)
Interesting --

You can't take exist definitively, but Pew says that GWB actually got better support from Mormons than Romney (80%-78%)...
   6494. McCoy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4299122)
Flat
   6495. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4299124)
What else is there to talk about?


Habs riots?
   6496. Jay Z Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4299126)
Re Jeb Bush:

I don't see it. I am always suspicious of these guys who are the favorites for way too long. Something usually is missing, usually the fire is not really there. So they never run, or the campaign is too halfhearted. I think the idea that the seas will part for the Bush name and he won't have to take any tough stands is naive. There need to be more authentic changes to their base. Plus if Barbara was the driving force behind a lot of this anyway, she will be in her 90s if she's still with us.

Re Drivin N Cryin:

I was a fan, but I think their approach came off as a little schizoid at the time.
   6497. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4299127)
Was it even R&B?

Good question.
   6498. Langer Monk Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4299128)
Donie
Homer
Randy
Guy


Sophia.
   6499. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4299129)
As always, bringing such a refreshing uplift to the tone and standards of the day's debate:

CALLER: There's three things basically, for a Hispanic. In the United States, we have different Hispanics; the Cuban, the Mexican, the people that come from South America.

LIMBAUGH: Yeah. You know, I had a sneaking suspicion you were going to go there, and I have a sneaking suspicion that the Cubans are not all that popular, are they?

CALLER: [laughter]

LIMBAUGH: They're not, are they? And why aren't the Cubans popular in the overall Hispanic group?

CALLER: Because, unfortunately for the Hispanic population, they're all different and they all have their different local customs and they're very protective of it.

LIMBAUGH: But isn't it -- Sylvia, isn't there a -- I'll whisper this so nobody else hears, isn't there a racial component to this? The Cubans -- not, you know, I mean --

CALLER: A lot of times, and I'll be very frank and honest with you, knowing all of the markets I know, they're very -- a society that's -- they're very close to their Cuban roots. And I know some of the older-population Cubanos eventually want to go back to Cuba. And they don't want to let it go.

LIMBAUGH: But the Republicans get a large part of the Cuban vote, particularly South Florida, already. And it's oriented -- I can't win here, I just can't win. It's oriented -- the reason that the Cubans are not that popular, of the Hispanic divisions you've talked about -- it's a race thing.

CALLER: Yes, it is.

LIMBAUGH: It's a race thing. They're just not quite dark -- as dark, and they're oriented toward work.


   6500. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4299130)
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