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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   6501. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4299131)
Was it even R&B?

Prince and the King of Pop, sure, close enough. Heck, I include Sister Rosetta Tharpe as R&B so the King of Pop, yeah, he had his moments. But Whitney Houston?
   6502. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4299132)
Apologies if this has already been posted, but I thought it was interesting. It's a geographical breakdown of racist post-election Tweets.
   6503. spike Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4299133)
And Warren appointed Peraeus' wife to a position in her office when she was a politcal appointee back in 2011.

Some talk that the affair was not with a Warren aide, but a conflation of the above.
   6504. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4299134)
Rank the Nixons in order of personal preference:

Richard
Mojo
Cynthia
Norm
Otis
Donnell
Russ


The fact that you left Trot out of this list makes it invalid.

Especially on a baseball site. For shame!
   6505. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4299135)
The Republicans have not won a presidential election without a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket since Herbert Hoover (and whoever his VP was, I assume he wasn't named Bush or Nixon).


Charles Curtis, whose mother was 3/4 Indian. From a certain point of view Curtis was our first and only minority VP. Certainly the only VP to speak Kaw.
   6506. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4299136)
the weird part on the Limbaugh thing is that if one has to generalize I actually think of Cubans as rather dark--there are lots more Afro-Cubans than Afro-Mexicans or Afro-Chileans or Afro-Argentinians, for obvious reasons. I mean, there are really a key spots for New World slavery--Brazil, the US, the Caribbean. Before 1800, the Caribbean was mostly Haiti and Jamaica and Barbados for slaves. After 1800 Cuba was the focal point of the Caribbean.
   6507. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4299137)
The fact that you left Trot out of this list makes it invalid.

Especially on a baseball site. For shame!


Somewhere, a tear slowly traces its way down the lonely cheek of Willard Nixon.
   6508. rr Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4299138)
The fact that you left Trot out


Point taken. I did have Trot on the last one. His absence does in fact invalidate the exercise.
   6509. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4299140)
Prince and the King of Pop, sure, close enough. Heck, I include Sister Rosetta Tharpe as R&B so the King of Pop, yeah, he had his moments. But Whitney Houston?


There is no way that you don't include Whitney Houston as R&B. I'm not saying that she's not pop-oriented but so is Aerosmith.
   6510. BurlyBuehrle Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4299141)
I realize this is many pages old by now, but I'm just catching up after election night and a few days of work...

From 5767:

ok, let me make a few distinctions

when i think of anti-science i think of the folks who are actively pushing efforts to eliminate science being taught in schools, actively pushing the government to not support/employ science, and other obvious attempts to thwart science having a presence in the public forum

i do not equate someone believing in god creating man as being anti-science.


There really couldn't be anything more anti-science than believing god* created man. Science is about letting the evidence dictate the conclusion, not the other way around. The theory of evolution is one of (if not the) the most thoroughly tested, examined, and confirmed theories in all of modern science. From a confidence perspective, it stands on roughly equal footing as gravity and the heliocentric model of the solar system. In short, it not only fits all the available evidence, but has extraordinary explanatory and predictive power, as well.

By contrast, a belief that god created man is completely unsupported by any evidence. Given the incentive to do so, the search for such evidence has been exhaustive; none has been found yet.

Subscribing to creationism is more than practically anti-science in that it rejects actual science, it is in principle anti-science, as well. The core of science is to question and to try and discover - to endeavor to expand humanity's knowledge. Creationism just assumes the answer and then gives up. It does nothing to explain anything. It does nothing to expand humanity's knowledge. It does nothing to address the obvious follow-up question of "who/what created the Creator?"

So, yeah, creationism is about as anti-science as you can get.

*I like the moniker "Super Jewish Fairy Man" ascribed to him/her/it upthread better, but we can stick with god here.
   6511. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4299143)
the weird part on the Limbaugh thing is that if one has to generalize I actually think of Cubans as rather dark--there are lots more Afro-Cubans than Afro-Mexicans or Afro-Chileans or Afro-Argentinians, for obvious reasons. I mean, there are really a key spots for New World slavery--Brazil, the US, the Caribbean. Before 1800, the Caribbean was mostly Haiti and Jamaica and Barbados for slaves. After 1800 Cuba was the focal point of the Caribbean.

There is a great deal of racial diversity among the Cuban population, though whether or not it's greater than that of other Caribbean countries, or greater than that of Mexico or Venezuela or you name it, is a good question. There are Cubans white enough to have played in the major leagues before 1947, and there are Cubans as black as night, and there are a gazillion variations thereof.
   6512. Poulanc Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4299144)
There really couldn't be anything more anti-science than believing god* created man.


What about the belief that God created man through the evolutionary process?
   6513. just plain joe Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4299145)
Mojo Nixon has retired from music and has supported Kinky Freidman's run for Governor in the past, so maybe he could help the ticket.


I don't know how much help he would be, apparently Mojo Nixon is a "bugger eating moron". At least if you go by the promos for his show on Sirius.
   6514. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4299146)
You can't take exist definitively, but Pew says that GWB actually got better support from Mormons than Romney (80%-78%)...


Dubya certainly got more love from Jon Huntsman and Harry Reid than did Mittens.
   6515. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4299147)
I was a fan, but I think their approach came off as a little schizoid at the time.


From what I've seen of Kevin Kinney outside of Drivin' and Cryin', that's perfectly reasonable.
   6516. bunyon Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4299150)
Re Jeb Bush:

I don't see it. I am always suspicious of these guys who are the favorites for way too long. Something usually is missing, usually the fire is not really there. So they never run, or the campaign is too halfhearted. I think the idea that the seas will part for the Bush name and he won't have to take any tough stands is naive. There need to be more authentic changes to their base. Plus if Barbara was the driving force behind a lot of this anyway, she will be in her 90s if she's still with us.


I have no idea if Jeb wants to be president and the waters part for no one. I'm just saying that the only guy I see in the Republican party that can plausibly make inroads with the Latinos AND be a plausible candidate to both the middle and the "base" is Jeb.

The Rs don't like to nominate new people. But if there is someone roaming around the Republican party with some experience and a Mexican wife and who has, for a long time, spoken reasonably on issues involving Latinos, I don't know of him/her. If there is, they should run.
   6517. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4299152)
the weird part on the Limbaugh thing is that if one has to generalize I actually think of Cubans as rather dark

I always assumed that the Cubans who fled were the rich Cubans, most of whom were rich because their Spanish ancestors were granted payment/favors for service to the Crown. These would be the paler demographic.

Then again, I may be full of sh!t.
   6518. BurlyBuehrle Posted: November 09, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4299153)
What about the belief that God created man through the evolutionary process?


Is there any evidence that this is what happened? The conclusion is dictated by the evidence, not by what the desired conclusion happens to be.

I'm less inclined to get wrankled over this statement in a vacuum, or on an internet message board, because, hey, believe whatever you want. I would, however, oppose that statement being taught in a school classroom.

EDIT: That there are so many evolutionary "dead-ends" (the Neanderthals say hi) would suggest that the evolutionary process was not guided by any intelligent entity with any purpose...but, again, YMMV, I guess.
   6519. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4299155)
I'm just saying that the only guy I see in the Republican party that can plausibly make inroads with the Latinos AND be a plausible candidate to both the middle and the "base" is Jeb ... if there is someone roaming around the Republican party with some experience and a Mexican wife and who has, for a long time, spoken reasonably on issues involving Latinos, I don't know of him/her.

Which is what makes Krauthammer's touting of the GOP's "deep bench" ready to facilitate their swift and sure "fixing of the Hispanic problem" so, well, amusing.
   6520. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4299156)
What about the belief that God created man through the evolutionary process?

As agnostic as I am, I can see a god putting together the Periodic Table, DNA, RNA, gravity and the other forces, shaking his cosmic test tube and pouring it out to see what happens.

I suppose that a god could also zap mutations to make dramatic evolutionary changes, letting things like skin color and body hair adapt itself.
   6521. Hexx Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4299158)
If you dont got mojo nixon, then your store could use some fixin


GregD, Thank you. That brought back so many memories. Just watched the video and it was like 25 years ago in my head
   6522. Poulanc Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4299161)
I would, however, oppose that statement being taught in a school classroom.


As would I. I just propose it as a middle ground between there is no God and the devil placed dinosaur bones on Earth to test our faith.
   6523. Morty Causa Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4299162)
Which evolutionary process? At what point did he make his presence felt? How do you know either of these?
   6524. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4299163)
What about the belief that God created man through the evolutionary process?


Yeah, I really buy into the idea that there are two orders of knowing, one that we might call knowledge (which would include science and empirical experience and so on) and one that we should call faith. The former can disprove certain variants of the latter but can't disprove all of it. People interested strongly in science should push a science-based agenda (EDIT: for schools and so forth) and leave it at that. I mean, if I cared more about such things I'd call myself an atheist, but I see no contradiction between a belief in God on the one hand and a belief in the big bang, evolution, etc on the other. Obviously the latter contradicts a literal interpretation of Genesis (for instance), but an omniscient, ominipresent, all-powerful entity could absolutely create our reality and also allow that reality to be created through physical processes determined by natural laws. That we don't understand how this might work only proves that we aren't omniscient and omnipresent.

I'm less inclined to get wrankled over this statement in a vacuum, or on an internet message board, because, hey, believe whatever you want. I would, however, oppose that statement being taught in a school classroom.


This is the thing. If there are two orders of knowing, there are also two realms in which those ways of knowing should be promulgated. Public schools etc clearly should be teaching what can be known (or at least strongly suspected based on empirical evidence and the scientific process) rather than what can be believed. Pro-science people should vigorously patrol this border, but should resist the temptation to step beyond it.

   6525. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4299164)
if the CBS story about Romney's people unskewing the polls and deciding to go to Pennsylvania because they were so far ahead in Ohio is true, then someone should excommunicate the whole lot from the party. Like Josh Marshall, I can't believe it is literally true though.


I think it's very likely to be true, and it reminds me of nothing so much as, “That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” the Bush aide told the journalist. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality – judiciously, as you will – we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors … and you, all of you, will be left to study what we do.”

And clean up our messes. And beat us in elections. That's the problems with 'creating your own reality'.

Chickens, meet roost.

I'm sure Latinos would would love to see more spending in certain areas. But the same is true of Republicans. Romney ran on a promise to dramatically increase military spending. "Larger government" seems to be code for "more spending on things I don't like" and "limited government" code for "less spending on things I don't like and more spending on things I do like."
Agreed. I think it's clear to everyone except the completely disingenuous.

Moreover, federal outlays as a % of GDP decreased under Carter and Clinton and increased under Reagan, Bush I, and Bush II. They spiked in 2008 and 2009 due to lower GDP. Over the last 2 years, they have declined. So the whole premise is whacked.
Yes. This needs to be hammered home relentlessly in every election. When Republicans even hint that they're the fiscally responsible party, they should be laughed out of the room. Of course, according to Joe, once Latinos realize that the GOP is the de facto party of big gummint, they'll flock to it in big, brown droves.
   6526. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4299165)
I always assumed that the Cubans who fled were the rich Cubans, most of whom were rich because their Spanish ancestors were granted payment/favors for service to the Crown. These would be the paler demographic.

In Cuba, as in Mexico and many other countries with similar Spanish colonial histories, the upper economic class is very predominantly light- and lighter-skinned because of their mostly directly Spanish lineage. (Think Fidel Castro.) Cubans working the cane fields and the docks in Cuba were far more likely descendant of African slaves. Thus a high proportion of the Cubans who came to populate south Florida after Castro were light- and lighter-skinned, disproportionate to the broader Cuban population.

Something interesting I noticed when watching Cuban baseball is that, as of 2010 anyway, nearly all of the ballplayers are very dark-skinned, and a high proportion of fans in the stands are light-skinned.
   6527. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4299166)
If you dont got mojo nixon, then your store could use some fixin


It's not a stretch to say that I tend to reduce anyone who self-identifies as a "Tea Party Patriot" to the narrator from "Stuart."
   6528. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4299168)
I always assumed that the Cubans who fled were the rich Cubans, most of whom were rich because their Spanish ancestors were granted payment/favors for service to the Crown. These would be the paler demographic.

That was the first waves, but since then it's been pretty much anyone who can afford a boat. And the Mariel boatlift of 1980, which brought about 125,000 Cubans into Florida, wasn't exactly made up of a bunch of Ricky Ricardos and casino magnates.
   6529. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4299169)
In Cuba, as in Mexico and many other countries with similar Spanish colonial histories, the upper economic class is very predominantly light- and lighter-skinned because of their mostly directly Spanish lineage. (Think Fidel Castro.) Cubans working the cane fields and the docks in Cuba were far more likely descendant of African slaves. Thus a high proportion of the Cubans who came to populate south Florida after Castro were light- and lighter-skinned, disproportionate to the broader Cuban population.


And they were all pretty, for a black girl.
   6530. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4299170)
GregD, Thank you. That brought back so many memories. Just watched the video and it was like 25 years ago in my head
The Milkmen show at Warsaw ballroom in Brooklyn in 2009 (?) was one of the great shows of my life. I had tapes when I was a teenager but wasn't the right age and spot to see them at their peak. And then they stopped! Usually bands like to go up and down, fast and slow, vary things, but they came out at 110 mph and ripped through their best songs one after the other, flailing the whole time. They ran out of gas, physically, by the end of like a 2-hour show, but it was crazy.

Also, incidentally, the first anti-Obama show that I went to, as he started out by saying he heard all these guys saying how happy they were about the election but he was hear to say that punk rock was about not believing the bullshit so #### Obama. The crowd went silent. It was a cool moment. I myself am pro-political, not anti-politics, but admit I am tired of getting sincere talks from indie rockers (shut up already, Patterson Hood!), and at one level, I don't believe in anti-politics but I do believe the meaning of punk rock is keeping alive that cynical dissocation of anti-politics. But it was dead silence. No one knew what to do. Then they went back to music.
   6531. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4299171)
burly

i hear you but i know plenty of folks in science who have no problem reconciling their religious faith and their faith in science.

and this includes myself. and while not a holder of a b.s. in a scientific discipline i have my b.s. in engineering and my masters in statistics.

i find it disturbing that some folks in this thread are absolutists in that if one has a belief system that conflicts with science then that individual is 'anti-science'

i struggle all the time with my faith and balancing that with what i believe to be true in the physical world.

i confess when i read your post above and i read joba's posts i hear the voice of my ex-son in law, professor of medicine. out of respect to my daughter and her choice i stood down repeatedly from all his baits and taunts regarding religious faith as he endlessly worked to frame my wife and i as country bumpkins intellectually bereft of accepting the 'truth'.





   6532. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4299172)
Also, incidentally, the first anti-Obama show that I went to, as he started out by saying he heard all these guys saying how happy they were about the election but he was hear to say that punk rock was about not believing the ######## so #### Obama. The crowd went silent. It was a cool moment. I myself am pro-political, not anti-politics, but admit I am tired of getting sincere talks from indie rockers (shut up already, Patterson Hood!), and at one level, I don't believe in anti-politics but I do believe the meaning of punk rock is keeping alive that cynical dissocation of anti-politics. But it was dead silence. No one knew what to do. Then they went back to music.


####### twee little earnest bastards. I will kill them all.
   6533. The Good Face Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4299176)
If you dont got mojo nixon, then your store could use some fixin


It's not a stretch to say that I tend to reduce anyone who self-identifies as a "Tea Party Patriot" to the narrator from "Stuart."


Someone needs to keep us informed about what the queers are doing to the soil.
   6534. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4299177)
as a reminder, the tea party got its legs from the gop leadership going off the rails in terms of spending. president bush spending on prescription drugs and the ag bill from his first term were two of the most egregious examples of things that were not even being requested nor necessary. it was just largesse.

the perception of teh gop leadership now is that instead of actually having an epiphany they instead are using teh talk of fiscal restraint to thward the president's initiatives.

i will not argue that there is some validity to that perspective in the second paragraph above
   6535. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4299179)
It's not a stretch to say that I tend to reduce anyone who self-identifies as a "Tea Party Patriot" to the narrator from "Stuart."
That may be the greatest song of all time. Do You Know What the Queers are Doing to Our Soil! The "our" really does give it the Blut und Boden feel.

And I hear a lot of "Peter Bazooka" in some of Dr Dog's paranoid songs, especially That Old Black Hole. Go Philly!

I am going to see Titus Andronicus in a few weeks and always hope they cover Life is ####
   6536. BurlyBuehrle Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4299180)
i find it disturbing that some folks in this thread are absolutists in that if one has a belief system that conflicts with science then that individual is 'anti-science'

i struggle all the time with my faith and balancing that with what i believe to be true in the physical world.


If my "belief system" conflicts with science, in what way is said belief system not "anti-science?" Certain things are gradations; other things are binary. We either were created, or we weren't. There is no evidence that we were. Science is a discipline that relies exclusively on testable, verifiable, observable evidence to define reality. To assert that reality is something that is at odds with all of the testable, verifiable, observable evidence is anti-science. Unless and until new evidence emerges, the scientific conclusion is not that we were created. To assert any other conclusion is, by definition, anti-science, in that it conflicts with what science tells us.

i stood down repeatedly from all his baits and taunts regarding religious faith as he endlessly worked to frame my wife and i as country bumpkins intellectually bereft of accepting the 'truth'.


You don't have to stand down from me. Anyone coming on this thread and posting with the expectation that others will 100% agree with them and stand down hasn't been paying attention. And I don't think anyone is "intellectually bereft." I do think that those that believe in creationism should accept that it is not "science."
   6537. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4299181)
i will not argue that there is some validity to that perspective in the second paragraph above

If by "some validity" you mean "stone truth so glaringly obvious it can be seen from space," then I agree.
   6538. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4299182)
The thing about not believing the bullshit is that whoever says that wants to replace the bullshit with their own bullshit.
   6539. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4299184)
burly

i did not claim that creationism is science

i stated taht i do not believe that someone who believes in god or who believes man created god is anti-science.

i hate this word parsing as it something too many here enjoy doing, playing little word games to 'ah ha, you are dumb because of blah, blah, blah'

but in this instance i find it worth clarifying

i accept that the earth has been around millions of years

i believe in god.

if that cuases folks to regard me as anti-science they are the foolish and intolerant ones, not me
   6540. GregD Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4299186)
The thing about not believing the ######## is that whoever says that wants to replace the ######## with their own ########.
I have no beef with that. I like punk rock for the way it takes me to states I used to inhabit, not so I can get directive on how to live my life. Rage against order is not a way to organize one's life but it is an interesting part of life's experiences, and a powerful part of how a lot of people--especially younger guys?--see the world. Artists touch on all of life, and that part, too. But yes it isn't a prescription.

   6541. BurlyBuehrle Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4299187)
i stated taht i do not believe that someone who believes in god or who believes man created god is anti-science.


I absolutely believe man created god, and I know I'm not anti-science. =)

Your point is taken. A belief in god and acceptance of scientific principles are not mutually exclusive; I know and accept that.
   6542. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4299189)
steve

on a personal level whatever is motivating them i am glad that there is a real fight before the purse strings are opened

not approving judges and other things that impair the ability of government to function, that is just spite
   6543. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4299190)
And I don't think anyone is "intellectually bereft."


You haven't been on the internet/plante Earth very long...
   6544. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4299191)
From what I've seen of Kevin Kinney outside of Drivin' and Cryin', that's perfectly reasonable.


You may not know this, but Kevn Kinney was in a Milwaukee punk band, The Prosecutors, back in the late 70s. I think he's originally from here.
   6545. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4299192)
burly

ok.

i regularly reference the far side cartoon where god is pulling an 'earth' out of the oven and thinking to himself the thing is only half-baked as being the most accurate depiction of the deity's attitude toward this world.

   6546. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4299193)
where is gary larson these days? i miss those one caption funnies
   6547. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4299194)
Yes, I would fire Krauthammer. Racists have no place on my "staff." If you can't see beyond the race of someone who has achieved the US presidency, you can't see beyond the race of anyone. And if you define people that essentially by their race, you're a racist by the core definition of the term.

I'd change my mind if there was some usage of "darker" in that context that I wasn't aware of. I've googled it and found a book on Amazon UK calling modern public relations a "dark art." That isn't enough.

As with all literary analysis, we can see and infer things about the writer from the things they write. I see a racist in those sentences, which were the literary equivalent, all things considered, of showering Obama with bananas.
   6548. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4299195)
i struggle all the time with my faith and balancing that with what i believe to be true in the physical world.


If you eliminate your belief in anything, you free yourself to have faith in everything. When nothing is forbidden, all is permitted.
   6549. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4299196)
where is gary larson these days?

Seriously? He retired from cartooning in 1995.
   6550. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4299197)
You may not know this, but Kevn Kinney was in a Milwaukee punk band, The Prosecutors, back in the late 70s. I think he's originally from here.


Yeah, D&C originally formed out there. It migrated to Atlanta when Kinney moved here.
   6551. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4299198)
not approving judges and other things that impair the ability of government to function, that is just spite


or a warm up

Scalia and Kennedy are 76, they seem healthy, but they are 76
If Obama gets to pick a replacement for one of them- the stonewalling will be epic.

The Federalists are one slot away from essentially overturning the bulk of the New Deal Court's jurisprudence (oddly enough, despite being election fodder for decades there's no real drive to overturn the bulk of the Warren Court's criminal and civil rights jurisprudence - except affirmative action on the margins and maybe Roe/Wade)- the loss of a conservative could set that process back quite aways- the loss of 2 would set the Federalist back a generation.

   6552. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4299199)
if that cuases folks to regard me as anti-science they are the foolish and intolerant ones, not me


Don't sweat it much, Harv. Pretty much ever major scientist of note, across history, has believed in god in some form or other.
   6553. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4299200)
steve

i know he retired. i was asking if anyone knew what he was doing in lieu of the cartoon stuff.
   6554. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4299203)
I was a fan, but I think their approach came off as a little schizoid at the time.


Country and Punk and {lite]Metal

What could go wrong? You don't think those genres go together?
   6555. BurlyBuehrle Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:48 PM (#4299208)
i regularly reference the far side cartoon where god is pulling an 'earth' out of the oven and thinking to himself the thing is only half-baked as being the most accurate depiction of the deity's attitude toward this world.


Now this I can get on board with, without reservation.
   6556. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4299210)
What could go wrong? You don't think those genres go together?


With enough charisma and energy, any genre mash-up can work. Hell, there's a Russian polka-punk outfit that's huge these days that I can't think of the name of...
   6557. McCoy Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4299213)
Purple Polka-Naut Ruskini?
   6558. spike Posted: November 09, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4299215)
Russian polka-punk outfit

Norwegian, not Russian, but kick ass polka punk. Kaizers Orchestra - Bak et Hallelulia
   6559. zenbitz Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:02 PM (#4299218)
Polkacide is an old 80s Punk-Polka band.
Gogol Bordello is a balkan gypsy punkish band.

And Mojo Nixon/Skid Roper are pure 80s music, so definitionally, 80s music was superior to all forms.
   6560. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4299220)
Was thinking of someone else, but The Red Elvises work. Dammit, this pisses me off to no end.
   6561. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4299221)
Gogol Bordello!
   6562. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:12 PM (#4299222)

Haley Barbour, the former RNC chairman and former governor of Mississippi, said that Republicans shouldn’t take Tuesday night’s election results as a sign that they are too conservative.

“What Republicans do wrong, the media says, is they’re conservatives,” Barbour told Ben Smith of BuzzFeed. “It was a very, very close election. Obama won by two points. Fewer people voted than last time.”

He continued that Republicans “do have to do some things to fix this,” but added that it also came down to who was running. “We had some sh*tty candidates,” he said. “We pissed away two seats.”


Well, you got part of that right, Haley ...
   6563. Poulanc Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:15 PM (#4299223)
I'd change my mind if there was some usage of "darker" in that context that I wasn't aware of.


Honestly, my first thought went immediately to Harry Potter. Defense against the Dark Arts class and all that.
   6564. DA Baracus Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:15 PM (#4299224)
Republicans fighting with each other while Democrats are united. The tables have turned.
   6565. Lassus Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:18 PM (#4299225)
Gogol Bordello!

I'm sorry, but they are the most annoying-hipstery band ever. I would love to say it's not their fault, but it probably is.
   6566. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:18 PM (#4299227)
RW fever swamps aflame with Petraeus/Benghazi speculation.

Give it up, people.
   6567. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4299229)
I'm sorry, but they are the most annoying-hipstery band ever


I won't argue this point. But they are very successful and they're a gypsy punk-folk band. The point was that any genre mashup could work if you really sell it.
   6568. Bob Meta-Meusel Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4299230)
Apologies if this has already been posted, but I thought it was interesting. It's a geographical breakdown of racist post-election Tweets.


Is it supposed to be in any way surprising that the most racist post-election tweets come out of the south?
   6569. DA Baracus Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:28 PM (#4299231)
Apologies if this has already been posted, but I thought it was interesting. It's a geographical breakdown of racist post-election Tweets.


####, I fell asleep at the wheel on that one. I blame my Mexican housemate for distracting me by talking about how apathetic he's become about politics while he ate directly out of a pot towards the end of the night on Tuesday. And he still hasn't gotten that beat up car out of the driveway.
   6570. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4299233)
Agreed. I think it's clear to everyone except the completely disingenuous.

So I guess you've joined the "poll truther" club, then. Poll after poll after poll shows Latinos overwhelmingly want bigger government with more services, yet you're ignoring these results and claiming the same is true of everyone. After the heat I took for being off by 2 points in the presidential election, it's kind of odd to see people hand-waving polls that show 25-point gaps between various demographics (and the 55-point gap within the Latino demographic).

***
That was the first waves, but since then it's been pretty much anyone who can afford a boat. And the Mariel boatlift of 1980, which brought about 125,000 Cubans into Florida, wasn't exactly made up of a bunch of Ricky Ricardos and casino magnates.

Mariel and then the more recent visa lottery both changed the demographics of Cuban-Americans, but it's mostly been lighter-skinned Cubans who've come to the U.S. The smugglers don't bring Cubans to the U.S. out of the goodness of their hearts. For decades, lighter-skinned Cubans would pay to smuggle their lighter-skinned relatives over, and then the cycle would continue again and again.

***
Yes, I would fire Krauthammer. Racists have no place on my "staff." If you can't see beyond the race of someone who has achieved the US presidency, you can't see beyond the race of anyone. And if you define people that essentially by their race, you're a racist by the core definition of the term.

I'd change my mind if there was some usage of "darker" in that context that I wasn't aware of. I've googled it and found a book on Amazon UK calling modern public relations a "dark art." That isn't enough.

You've never heard of the "dark arts" of politics? Google yields thousands of results. You should tell the racists at, among others, Vanity Fair and ABC to knock off their use of such repugnant language.
   6571. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4299234)
Meet Paula Broadwell, the Petraeus biographer who got waaaaaay too close to her subject.

BONUS: Title of her book was "All In." Of course he was, Paula, of course he was.
   6572. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4299235)
Meet Paula Broadwell, the Petraeus biographer who got waaaaaay too close to her subject.

She's attractive, but somewhere, James Bond is chuckling.
   6573. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:42 PM (#4299236)
It won't be so easy for Charles Krauthammer to walk back his spineless choice of words. The man doesn't have a leg to stand on.

We're making fun of paraplegics now? Even by BBTF standards, that's kind of brutal.

***
Year, %
1980, 35
1982, 25
1984, 31
1986, 25
1988, 24
1990, 28
1992, 28
1994, 39
1996, 27
1998, 37
2000, 35
2002, 38
2004, 44
2006, 26
2008, 31
2010, 33
2012, 27

This is the poll data for the percent of votes for Republicans by Hispanics. Note, please, that the big downturn in the percentages in recent times occurs in 2006, which in no way was a point in time when the country was perceived to be in "hard times." The larger long-term pattern in the data suggests that Hispanic flirtation with the Republicans occurred in the 1994-2004 period, with percentages then reverting to their earlier levels from the 80s.

It sure looks as though it was something other than the pocketbook (or the desire for "big government") that contributed to the massive downturn in Republican support from Hispanics that occurred in between 2004-06.

It does?

2004 was an outlier data point in a sea of 20s and 30s for the GOP over the preceding 30 years, and it was explained almost entirely by home-state Latinos voting for their former governor, George W. Bush. Romney's "horrible" performance with Latinos on Tuesday essentially matched or bettered the GOP share of the Latino vote in half of the presidential elections since 1980.
   6574. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:43 PM (#4299237)
Meet Paula Broadwell, the Petraeus biographer who got waaaaaay too close to her subject.


I am disappoint.
   6575. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:49 PM (#4299238)
Then there's stuff like this:

A visibly upset Zoraida Fonalledas, Chairwomen of the Committee on Permanent Organization, was greeted by chants of "USA, USA, USA" when RNC Chairman Reince Priebus introduced her to the convention crowd.

The chants kept coming until Priebus stepped back up to the podium and told the delegates to let Fonalledas take care of her business.

Just a little bit awkward.

Now the RNC came out the next day and said that the chants were from Ron Paul supporters protesting something entirely different, but somehow I'm thinking that the optics of the way the whole thing appeared at first blush resonated a whole lot more than any subsequent attempts at explanation ...

I know you love to post weird quotes about Republicans, but the incident above had nothing to do with the ethnicity of the speaker and everything to do with a floor fight with Ron Paul supporters. This whole thing was debunked within minutes at the RNC, and it's a huge stretch to claim it affected the Latino vote.

Given that Marco Rubio, Susana Martinez, and Ted Cruz all got prime speaking slots and very enthusiastic receptions, the above claim is even more odd.

***
A Cuban-American calling for a hard-wall on the US/Mexican border is not what I'd call good salesmanship.

This is the problem with the immigration issue. Without a hard fence across the entirety of the U.S./Mexico border, all amnesty would do is create an incentive for millions more illegal immigrants to arrive and wait for the next amnesty. People in Latin America (and elsewhere) aren't going to say, "Oh, well. We missed our chance." The same incentives for them to come will exist in 2013 as existed in 2005 and 1992 and 1984.

EDIT: W did well enough with the Latino vote and had a very out-of-step with his party POV on the immigration issue. Note to Rs: let the Bushes win that debate.

Bush 43 really only did well with Latinos from his home state. I suppose there could be a repeat of this with a guy like Jeb Bush — who, incidentally, was my preference for 2012 — but Jeb, Rubio, and Ted Cruz are probably the only three GOP politicians who have a realistic chance of catching that lightning in a bottle again in 2016.
   6576. spike Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:49 PM (#4299239)
I am disappoint.

Seen a pic of Mrs. Petraeus?

RW fever swamps aflame with Petraeus/Benghazi speculation.

Clearly, the only way to keep him quiet was to organize his public dismissal for adultery.

//she looks pretty good on The Daily Show actually....

Link
   6577. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4299240)
While conducting research over the past three years, Broadwell was afforded extensive access by General Petraeus


You don't say.
   6578. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:52 PM (#4299241)
Seen a pic of Mrs. Petraeus?


My disappointment is that this is totally not GoldenEye.
   6579. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:55 PM (#4299242)
So Joe, if you believe there's nothing the GOP can do to attract Hispanics without abandoning the GOP's core principle of small government- where do you think the GOP should look to pick up more votes?
   6580. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:00 PM (#4299245)
So Joe, if you believe there's nothing the GOP can do to attract Hispanics without abandoning the GOP's core principle of small government- where do you think the GOP should look to pick up more votes?

With the white working class, which is less and less sure their kids will be better off than they are, and which apparently stayed home in huge numbers on Tuesday.

That's not to say the GOP shouldn't work to attract blacks, Latinos, and Asians by appealing rather than pandering, but that's a long-term, uphill battle at this point, especially in mediocre or down economic times.
   6581. spike Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:01 PM (#4299246)
To be fair, many of the Joe's fellow travellers don't believe in this kind of "evolution" either.
   6582. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4299247)
With the white working class


"The GOP is just not white enough" is, admittedly, a somewhat distinct critique.
   6583. BDC Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4299248)
Allowing that there could be any number of reasons why Petraeus was dismissed (including losing a foot on his fastball), may I ask some rhetorical questions? Who the #### cares who he's sleeping with and whether or not he's married to her (or him)? Why is that relevant to his holding public office?

I know, I know.
   6584. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4299249)
Why is that relevant to his holding public office?
Possible security breach. AP is reporting the investigation started after she tried to hack his email.
   6585. BDC Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:04 PM (#4299251)
a hard fence across the entirety of the U.S./Mexico border

With respect, Joe, that project is about as tied to reality as Newt Gingrich's plan for the statehood of the Moon.
   6586. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:04 PM (#4299252)
With the white working class, which is less and less sure their kids will be better off than they are, and which apparently stayed home in huge numbers on Tuesday.


I honestly have no idea why members of the white "working class" should vote GOP, but then again I'm not sure anymore of why they should be voting Dem either.
   6587. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:06 PM (#4299253)
"The GOP is just not white enough" is, admittedly, a somewhat distinct critique.

Black unemployment approaches or exceeds 40 percent in many cities, while only 55 percent of Latinos age 23 or older have a high school diploma. If the question is how the GOP attracts blacks and Latinos without abandoning its core principles, as Johnny asked in #6579, the short-term answer is: It doesn't.
   6588. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:06 PM (#4299254)
You've never heard of the "dark arts" of politics?

That's not what he wrote. He wrote the "darker arts of public persuasion," i.e., rhetoric, which he further identified as the reason Obama beat a superior chief executive.

Krauthammer revealed his true self. The only question is whether it's always been there, or whether the fever swamps of politics in the 21st century engulfed him.



   6589. spike Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:07 PM (#4299255)
a hard fence across the entirety of the U.S./Mexico border

Gosh, wouldn't that hinder the reverse migration going on now?
   6590. BDC Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:08 PM (#4299256)
AP is reporting the investigations started after she tried to hack his email

Well, if the CIA Director let anyone into his ultra-secret CIA e-mail, he should be fired. OTOH I assume there are hundreds of people around the world whose job description is "try to hack the CIA director's work e-mail." If she logged into the Gmail account he keeps for pictures of his cats or something, SFW :)
   6591. spike Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:08 PM (#4299257)
I'm not sure anymore of why they should be voting Dem either.

Food stamps and Obamaphones, duh.
   6592. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:08 PM (#4299258)
Black unemployment approaches or exceeds 40 percent in many cities, while only 55 percent of Latinos age 23 or older have a high school diploma.


You're about three posts out from a segue into Stormfront, chief.
   6593. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:10 PM (#4299259)
Black unemployment approaches or exceeds 40 percent in many cities, while only 55 percent of Latinos age 23 or older have a high school diploma. If the question is how the GOP attracts blacks and Latinos without abandoning its core principles, as Johnny asked in #6579, the short-term answer is: It doesn't.

The GOP's "core principles" include acceptance of 40% black unemployment and a 50% high school graduation rate among young Latinos?
   6594. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:11 PM (#4299260)
Allowing that there could be any number of reasons why Petraeus was dismissed (including losing a foot on his fastball), may I ask some rhetorical questions? Who the #### cares who he's sleeping with and whether or not he's married to her (or him)? Why is that relevant to his holding public office?

Among other reasons, the director of the CIA shouldn't be exposing himself to potential blackmail.

With respect, Joe, that project is about as tied to reality as Newt Gingrich's plan for the statehood of the Moon.

Well, then amnesty is a fool's errand, especially if the idea behind amnesty is to solve the problem "once and for all." The issue certainly won't be solved "once and for all" if the U.S./Mexico border is left open to additional illegal immigration, and history is allowed to repeat itself for the third or fourth time.
   6595. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:11 PM (#4299261)
Food stamps and Obamaphones, duh.
Some wiseass on FB had, yesterday, "Posted from my Obamaphone."
   6596. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:12 PM (#4299263)
My warmonger brother, who owns a copy of "All In," just gushed to me about Broadwell's hawtness.
   6597. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:13 PM (#4299264)
In the Petraeus case, it should be noted that the under the UCMJ it is illegal to have an extramarital affair. The armed services do not live by our rules, gentlemen.
   6598. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:14 PM (#4299266)
Is Petraeus still a commissioned officer? I thought he resigned when he took the CIA job.
   6599. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:16 PM (#4299267)
He may have resigned the commission, but those rules run deep in the men that live them.
   6600. Steve Treder Posted: November 09, 2012 at 07:16 PM (#4299268)
I thought he resigned when he took the CIA job.

Yes, he retired from the Army on Aug. 31, 2011.
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