Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 8 of 114 pages ‹ First  < 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 >  Last ›
   701. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 02, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4291171)
@695--thanks, FM. The possibilities are incredibly intriguing.

All true. I'll add a 1-a: Carroll O'Connor played the character perfectly, pushing his rough edges but never making the "bad Archie" too repellent. Getting him right was a writing challenge and an acting challenge, and could have failed in any number of ways that it didn't.
I did a little reading after the q was first posted here, and it seems Lear though O'Connor a complete pain in the ass, often because of how difficult it was for O'Connor to get into character. They both thought it was worth it, though, for the way O'Connor nailed the role.

I doubt the South and North don't fight over something between 1860 and 1945.
Well, if we imagine the North actively choosing not to fight in the early 60s, it probably would have involved a treaty of some kind. A North reluctant to fight in 1860-61 is different enough from the North that was that I can imagine a costly war being avoided indefinitely. I've even wondered if the conflict was so personality driven that if Abe Lincoln gets run over by a horse in 1847, does the Civil War look remotely like the one we saw? Does it even get started?
   702. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 02, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4291174)
NYC Marathon called off.
   703. Steve Treder Posted: November 02, 2012 at 05:44 PM (#4291179)
at’s not what those disaffected whites who the Democrats lost took from it ... To them, he spoke truth—his comeuppances was completely pro forma and eminently dismissible. And they did just that. They let that water flow right over them No one I know was quoting or citing the Meathead’s retorts. They were savoring Archie’s putdowns. He became the legend--not the Meathead or his daughter or his wife.

No doubt they "let that water flow right over them," as they mulishly resisted the current of social progress and anchored themselves in eddies of stagnant obstinacy, to await Rush's approval. What a prize for Republicans.
   704. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 02, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4291185)
The NYC Marathon has been cancelled.

So much for the value of that Bloomberg endorsement. The value of his brand may take quite a hit over his being so slow to realize how bad the optics were on this.
   705. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 02, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4291186)
Funny Biden gaffe — or Freudian slip?

'There's Never Been A Day In The Last Four Years I've Been Proud To Be His Vice President'

Meanwhile:

- Romney is +1 (49-48) in today's ABC/WaPo national poll;

- 75 times more people (!!) have gone on food stamps under Obama than have found a job.
   706. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: November 02, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4291187)
THAT'S IT, I'M DISCONNECTING MY PHONE UNTIL TUESDAY!! I was getting 2-3 calls a week, then 2-3 a day. I just got 3 in the last hour: 2 for Romney and 1 for Obama. Are these people ####### idiots? My 2 Romney calls were about 15 minutes apart. Does harassment make anyone want to vote for your candidate? I can't imagine how this is some sort of positive. And besides, I already voted. Not that they could know that, but my first point stands. I'd say about 95% of my phone calls the last 2 weeks have been either robocalls, pollsters, or people asking for money.
   707. Danny Posted: November 02, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4291189)
The census is a poll and in this case they are off on the registration part.

Quinnipiac is also a poll. Just like the census, their count of "registered voters" is determined by what people tell them when asked whether they're registered or not. They found that 96% of the people who say they are registered to vote are likely to vote. How do we check to see if that's reasonable? We have to guess what percent of people who say they are registered to vote actually vote. That's what the census data tells us--90% of people who said they were registered to vote actually voted.
   708. Morty Causa Posted: November 02, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4291190)
So... hate crime legislation (which I oppose) will elevate blacks to the status whites had under Jim Crow? Affirmative action is no different than Whites Only? I'm not seeing it.


Preferential treatment along class lines in one way is no different in principle than preferential treatment along class lines in another way. Please don't miss the point. Because it forms the intellectual bulwark for that obstinancy.

The point is those alienated white people (and there are a ton of them) feel that they, and their ascendants, were criticized and condemned for doing what you then insisted as your right to do. You preached to them, and then you did what you condemned them for doing. (What do you call that again?) You can talk about different levels of effect, but that's only a difference in degree, not in kind. And, moreover, they feel you will, if given the chance do worse--only their numbers and power prevent this. Thus, there willingness to adhere to whoever will see they retain that power and those numbers.

It was not necessary that they be given this freebie with watercress all around it. And the Old Left hardly raised an objection. This ended up with those disaffected and angry whites in their minds having cause to justify their bigotry (in a more pallid sense) and to hold an eternal grudge exercise extreme wariness. You really were no better than they were. You can't be trusted. You reneged on your enunciated principle.
   709. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 02, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4291191)
That's what the census data tells us--90% of people who said they were registered to vote actually voted.

But only 72 percent of actual registered voters actually voted, which means either 20 percentage points of the respondents lied or they were disproportionately from one party (or some combination of the two).
   710. zonk Posted: November 02, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4291194)
Bloombergs brand already took a hit when he won reelection by a fair bit less than expected. Unlike Chicago, where different Dem factions are the be-all end-all, and there's really no legitimate way a RepublIcan can exploit schisms, NYC is different.

Bloomberg's endorsement was never really gonna help obama - he's a "Republican" only because that was his only way to get elected. Powell is a bit more meaningful, but not by all that much
   711. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4291196)
Well, if we imagine the North actively choosing not to fight in the early 60s, it probably would have involved a treaty of some kind. A North reluctant to fight in 1860-61 is different enough from the North that was that I can imagine a costly war being avoided indefinitely. I've even wondered if the conflict was so personality driven that if Abe Lincoln gets run over by a horse in 1847, does the Civil War look remotely like the one we saw? Does it even get started?

I don't see how the two of them don't go to war several times as they both expand their nations.
   712. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4291198)
Food stamp President!!!!
   713. Morty Causa Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4291199)
No doubt they "let that water flow right over them," as they mulishly resisted the current of social progress and anchored themselves in eddies of stagnant obstinacy, to await Rush's approval. What a prize for Republicans.


Like I said at the beginning, that's a lot of people to discount. Last I heard even racists, sexists, and no-accounts in general get to vote. And the Democratic Party made a mighty powerful enemy, and made it along a wholesale class category--one which it seems to be at a loss to come terms with. I don't have any answers. But a lot of white people are pissed. It's that simple. And things like Jena and Gates, to name just two very recent examples, don't soothe that savage breast. To them, it's just an indication of the way it really is.

The problem stems from years of treating them as just ignorant Redneck types who need to somehow be circumvented. If that's the way game is going to be played, then they'll play it that way. They'll fight it on terms of winning--not on terms of what's right. They'll end-run you. They'll put their kind on courts. They'll elect those who bend the knee to them no matter what. That's the game, isn't it? You forfeited fighting on the grounds of principle; that leaves only power left. And whites, Euros, are still by far the largest class in this country.
   714. zonk Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4291200)
I agree with McCoy - 2 east coast continental north American nations mean that the USA and CSA end up fighting a ton of Prussian-Franco type conflicts for 50-75 years to determine borders.
   715. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4291201)
The point is those alienated white people (and there are a ton of them) feel that they, and their ascendants, were criticized and condemned for doing what you then insisted as your right to do. You preached to them, and then you did what you condemned them for doing. (What do you call that again?) You can talk about different levels of effect, but that's only a difference in degree, not in kind. And, moreover, they feel you will, if given the chance do worse--only their numbers and power prevent this. Thus, there willingness to adhere to whoever will see they retain that power and those numbers.



It looks like I am going to read "Nixonland" again as that sounds like the main point of the book.
   716. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:07 PM (#4291202)
So much for the value of that Bloomberg endorsement. The value of his brand may take quite a hit over his being so slow to realize how bad the optics were on this.

No, no — Bloomberg was leading from behind.
   717. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:12 PM (#4291204)
Northern abolitionist aren't going to go away simply because the nation splits in half nor are slaves going to stop running away to the North.
   718. Morty Causa Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:14 PM (#4291206)
It looks like I am going to read "Nixonland" again as that sounds like the main point of the book.


And Richard E. Nixon was Archie Bunker's president.
   719. Steve Treder Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:15 PM (#4291207)
It looks like I am going to read "Nixonland" again as that sounds like the main point of the book.

It's one of several main points, and a completely brilliant book.
   720. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:16 PM (#4291208)
Bloombergs brand already took a hit when he won reelection by a fair bit less than expected.

I didn't mean in NYC - Obama should win there with no trouble. But we're now likely to have several news cycles of Bloomberg scrambling to avert further disaster on Staten Island (and elsewhere), while people picture him as the clueless Mayor who thought it was OK for hotels to kick out the sheltering locals to honor marathoners' reservations and divert resources such as generators and bottled water to the marathon. That might be all that a lot of folks in Iowa and Colorado (and elsewhere) know about Bloomberg, plus that he just endorsed Obama. If they follow Bloomberg closely, they might also know he wants to take away their guns. Not a huge deal, but those touting the value of Bloomberg's endorsement (was that just yesterday?) may have inflated the benefit of that nod.
   721. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:16 PM (#4291209)
I agree with McCoy - 2 east coast continental north American nations mean that the USA and CSA end up fighting a ton of Prussian-Franco type conflicts for 50-75 years to determine borders.


Yeah, I'm sure that there is endless squabbling over Alsace-Kentucky and so on, but the problem is that this ultimately leads to an all-out fight that the North wins. End of CSA. The whole proposition requires that the CSA *not* get involved in these sorts of fights, at least not until it's been independent long enough to become an actual nation of long enough standing that the North is willing to beat up on it without trying to annex all of it. How long is that? 50 years? I don't know. Maybe Kaiser Wilhelm's telegram to the USA's southern neighbor starts a North American war after all. It ends with the USA giving the CSA a beat down, while Germany wins WWI and establishes something like a more oppressive European Union by 1920. Then WW2 never happens, and (strangely) the effects of an independent Confederacy are more lasting in Eurasia than in America.
   722. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:18 PM (#4291211)
Like I said at the beginning, that's a lot of people to discount. Last I heard even racists, sexists, and no-accounts in general get to vote. And the Democratic Party made a mighty powerful enemy, and made it along a wholesale class category--one which it seems to be at a loss to come terms with. I don't have any answers. But a lot of white people are pissed. It's that simple. And things like Jena and Gates, to name just two very recent examples, don't soothe that savage breast. To them, it's just an indication of the way it really is.

The problem stems from years of treating them as just ignorant Redneck types who need to somehow be circumvented. If that's the way game is going to be played, then they'll play it that way. They'll fight it on terms of winning--not on terms of what's right. They'll end-run you. They'll put their kind on courts. They'll elect those who bend the knee to them no matter what. That's the game, isn't it? You forfeited fighting on the grounds of principle; that leaves only power left. And whites, Euros, are still by far the largest class in this country.


Are you explaining their position or endorsing it?
   723. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4291214)
The only way the CSA doesn't get into these kind of fights is if the CSA stays in a stasis for 50 years. If the CSA pulls a communist China and closes its borders and doesn't partake in world events the USA might just leave it alone for 50 years or more but I don't see why the CSA would do that. To the North they would have the industrializing USA aggressively expanding West and to the South they would have a weak Mexico and a dying Spain in there way. I don't see why the CSA would be content to just their original states nor look to expand their economies.
   724. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4291215)
I'm just curious not counting the Cold War, how many years of its life that US has been in some state of conflict?
I think the answer - including the Cold War - is "all of them."
   725. Steve Treder Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:23 PM (#4291216)
The problem stems from years of treating them as just ignorant Redneck types who need to somehow be circumvented. If that's the way game is going to be played, then they'll play it that way. They'll fight it on terms of winning--not on terms of what's right. They'll end-run you. They'll put their kind on courts. They'll elect those who bend the knee to them no matter what. That's the game, isn't it? You forfeited fighting on the grounds of principle; that leaves only power left. And whites, Euros, are still by far the largest class in this country.

Well, obviously they've played it that way, and leveraged quite a bit of electoral and legislative success out of it since the 1970s.

But just as obviously, it's a "game" without a good exit strategy. "Whites, Euros" are a vastly larger, broader, and more diverse ethnic and cultural category than the Archie Bunker fans upon whom you're focusing. The Archie Bunker fans are concentrated in a demographic that is steadily and relentlessly losing proportional representation. The GOP's co-optation of them was one of the great political maneuvers in US history, but it is driving the party full-speed into a blind alley, ever-increasing the zealous devotion of this base while simultaneously repelling nearly all others even as the others grow in proportional representation.
   726. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4291220)
The only way the CSA doesn't get into these kind of fights is if the CSA stays in a stasis for 50 years. If the CSA pulls a communist China and closes its borders and doesn't partake in world events the USA might just leave it alone for 50 years or more but I don't see why the CSA would do that. To the North they would have the industrializing USA aggressively expanding West and to the South they would have a weak Mexico and a dying Spain in there way. I don't see why the CSA would be content to just their original states nor look to expand their economies.


I guess the way the CSA survives is if it gains its independence by a McClellan victory in the 1864 election, or in some other way survives but does not win the Civil War. The Southern powers-that-be look back on the war and understand that war is now an industrialized business and only going to get more so, and the North is a vastly stronger industrial power. They then make the avoidance of war with the USA the fundamental goal of their foreign policy. They try to expand, but are cautious about it.

Yeah, this doesn't really happen, and the CSA is winkled out by 1900. But this is the best I can do.
   727. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:28 PM (#4291221)
t's one of several main points, and a completely brilliant book.


Not one of George Will's favorite books apparently: Nixonland review
   728. Steve Treder Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:30 PM (#4291222)
No more robust endorsement than a George Will pan.
   729. Morty Causa Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:46 PM (#4291228)
Are you explaining their position or endorsing it?

I'm explaining it and I understand and sympathize. It's easy to view contemptuously those whose anguish and angst (bred by fear) you don't hear on a regular basis.

I voted for Obama in '08 and will vote for him again. In fact, I like him, too. I haven't voted for a Republican since I voted (to my eternal shame and chagrin) for Nixon in '72. I loathe and despise the Republican Party. The Republican Party makes me feel like I walking barefoot over writhing snakes. How anyone with an educational level of over the sixth-grade could be a Republican is beyond me.

But I can't respect the Democratic Party, and I think it is in a wuss degraded mode. It's jaded New Deal/Great Society in domestic affairs and closet appeasers/attritionists in foreign affairs. Perhaps most of all, I admire Obama for trying to get beyond all that. He's done that mostly in a principled manner, exhibiting some real character. That he's view as he is by so many is depressing, and it says something about how horrible our system has become when decency and intelligence and (yes) good-heartedness doesn't matter, can, in fact, be twisted to mean something else. It's all about the game. The model for our politics is tribal. It's no more than the LSU-Alabama football rivalry, the Superbowl, the reality show du jour. It's pathetic. That your side might win doesn't change that awful, self-destructive paradigm.
   730. zonk Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:52 PM (#4291232)
Thing is - McClellan didn't run on peace ticket. His supporters did, but he pretty much ran as a "better than Lincoln" kerryesque campaign. Sherman made that moot. The CSA was really doomed once Lee's foray into PA went bust, if not from the start.
   731. Steve Treder Posted: November 02, 2012 at 06:56 PM (#4291233)
The model for our politics is tribal.

Certainly true. But I wonder how particularly unique this is to the current-day USA. We are, everyone, the descendants of warring tribes (and in many places in the world, we're still active members of warring tribes), and while this civilization thingie has been a profound success in countless ways, we're still the same animals underneath.

Agonizing over the human condition doesn't seem an especially fruitful exercise. I prefer to acknowledge it for what it is, and try to nudge the stubborn boulder of progress forward by a fraction. YMMV.
   732. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:01 PM (#4291237)
Thing is - McClellan didn't run on peace ticket. His supporters did, but he pretty much ran as a "better than Lincoln" kerryesque campaign. Sherman made that moot. The CSA was really doomed once Lee's foray into PA went bust, if not from the start.


Oh, I agree. I think it was doomed from the start. The North didn't have an especially good war and won anyway, and it takes a lot of couterfactuals to change that. There's no one thing you could easily change and have a surviving CSA. But if you want to create the alternate history you have to just arbitrarily choose something.
   733. Morty Causa Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:06 PM (#4291239)
The Archie Bunker fans are concentrated in a demographic that is steadily and relentlessly losing proportional representation. The GOP's co-optation of them was one of the great political maneuvers in US history, but it is driving the party full-speed into a blind alley, ever-increasing the zealous devotion of this base while simultaneously repelling nearly all others even as the others grow in proportional representation.


There's that problem, but allegiances creating coalitions are always in a state of flux. And as was pointend out up thread, the country is getting more conservative, and more, not less, are feeling dispossessed disenfranchised, and what hasn't been mentioned is that they feel less cowed with every passing election in experssing it in those terms. You can't shamed them on the basis of race anymore--that right was forfeited. It doesn't bother them that you think or call them racists/sexists. More and more are joining them. They see the gain to be had. The trajectory right now is in their favor.

Obama got some of those blue collar types, but he treated them much too lightly (maybe he didn't know what to do with them, sort of like the dog and the VW Beetle), and has squandered what he gained provisionally with a stimulus policy in favor of big business and the rich. That was a missed opportunity big-time. Still, the Democratic Party does too little to draw them in. The attitude is lump it or leave it, and they've been leaving. And they will continue doing so, in greater and greater numbers.
   734. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:06 PM (#4291240)
But if you want to create the alternate history you have to just arbitrarily choose something.
What if Kal-El landed in the antebellum South?
   735. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4291242)
The North didn't have an especially good war and won anyway

I don't know about that. The administrations handling of foreign powers was very good. The blockade was hugely successful. The war in the west was extremely one sided towards the North. The wars in the middle area, such as Kentucky/Tennessee went the North's way. About the only place they initially struggled was in Virginia but they never really had an out and out disaster in VA and eventually VA became a huge win for the North as well.

Basically the CSA spent all of their resources holding the line in front of Richmond that they gave up the rest of their territory to the North. Meanwhile the North was so vast and so powerful that they could hammer away at VA with a large and powerful army while still devoting vast amount of resources to taking the rest of the rebel states as well.
   736. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4291243)
What if Kal-El landed in the antebellum South?


David Brin was once asked to contribute a story to a volume called Hitler Victorious. He looked at it and decided there was no reasonable way for Hitler to win, so he wrote a story in which the Norse gods showed up right when the Allies were on the verge of winning. The story is about some Canadians (IIRC) on a secret mission in a submarine with Loki, who is helping them. It ends with one of them creating Captain America to defeat Thor and company.

So yeah, Kal-El works.
   737. Steve Treder Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:16 PM (#4291244)
More and more are joining them. They see the gain to be had. The trajectory right now is in their favor. ... they've been leaving. And they will continue doing so, in greater and greater numbers.

On what basis do you conclude this? Voter registration stats? General electoral trends (including more election cycles of recent years than just Nov. 2010)?

I don't believe the demographic landscape supports your breathlessly dramatic narrative. (Though it is fun to imagine it being read by Walter Winchell.)
   738. Jay Z Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:17 PM (#4291245)
Well, if we imagine the North actively choosing not to fight in the early 60s, it probably would have involved a treaty of some kind. A North reluctant to fight in 1860-61 is different enough from the North that was that I can imagine a costly war being avoided indefinitely. I've even wondered if the conflict was so personality driven that if Abe Lincoln gets run over by a horse in 1847, does the Civil War look remotely like the one we saw? Does it even get started?


There were plenty of people and pols that were reluctant to fight. They'd spent almost 20 years trying to avoid that fight. Great Compromiser and all that.

If there was no war the pressure would have been international, embargoes and all that. Great Britain and others would have not continued to trade with a slave state.
   739. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:17 PM (#4291246)
There's no one thing you could easily change and have a surviving CSA.


A Lee victory at Gettysburg brings in England and France to force the North into a negotiated peace.
   740. Mefisto Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:24 PM (#4291249)
A Lee victory at Gettysburg brings in England and France to force the North into a negotiated peace.


The time for that had past. There was a real danger of that in 1862, but not after the EP. That made intervention on behalf of the South politically impossible.
   741. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:25 PM (#4291250)
Yep. Antietam was the South's best shot.
   742. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:26 PM (#4291251)
The time for that had past. There was a real danger of that in 1862, but not after the EP. That made intervention on behalf of the South politically impossible.

Yep. Antietam was the South's best shot.


OK, Antietem then.

edit: But was also politically impossible was an indefinite cotton embargo to the old world textile mills. A Lee victory at Gettysburg signals a possible war without end, and the accompanying cotton starvation without end, and that would have been just as disastrous to their governments.
   743. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:40 PM (#4291255)
A Lee victory at Gettysburg brings in England and France to force the North into a negotiated peace.


I don't think so. France wasn't going anywhere by itself - Napoleon III was quite blunt about that. The British weren't going to get involved once the Emancipation Proclamation was issued - indeed a large part of the reason for the Proclamation was to assure the British that the Union was truly committed to the elimination of slavery. It would have taken much more than Gettsyburg - especially in light of the Union victories in the West - to convince France and Great Britain that the Confederacy was viable.

-- MWE

EDIT: Or what Mefisto said.
   744. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:46 PM (#4291259)
France wasn't going anywhere by itself - Napoleon III was quite blunt about that.


Than what was he doing in Mexico?
   745. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:46 PM (#4291260)
A Lee victory at Gettysburg signals a possible war without end, and the accompanying cotton starvation without end, and that would have been just as disastrous to their governments.


Except that by 1863 the British had been developing alternate cotton sources in India and Egypt, which more or less cut the heart out of the Confederacy's economy.

-- MWE
   746. Perro(s) Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:47 PM (#4291262)
Agonizing over the human condition doesn't seem an especially fruitful exercise. I prefer to acknowledge it for what it is, and try to nudge the stubborn boulder of progress forward by a fraction. YMMV.


The Greeks had it mythically covered.
   747. Mefisto Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:52 PM (#4291263)
Mike has it right in 745. Gettysburg would have been a terrible problem for the North had it gone the other way (depending on how bad it got), but the Confederacy was unsustainable once Grant took Vicksburg. The Union won the war in the West: New Orleans in 1862; Vicksburg; Chattanooga. As McCoy said in 735, VA was never more than a holding action.
   748. Steve Treder Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:53 PM (#4291264)
The Greeks had it mythically covered.

Brother Sisyphus.
   749. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 02, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4291265)
Than what was he doing in Mexico?


France wasn't there by themselves originally (Great Britain and Spain supported the invasion initially but withdrew when they realized what the French were doing). The British and Spanish were upset because Mexico had stopped making interest payments on foreign investments. Both countries sent fleets in support of the French invasion but pulled out once it became apparent that France was going for the kill.

In part because of their involvement in Mexico, the French could not afford to get the Union ticked off at them - which most assuredly would have happened if they had recognized the Confederacy at the same time.

-- MWE
   750. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 02, 2012 at 08:04 PM (#4291268)
Gettysburg would have been a terrible problem for the North had it gone the other way (depending on how bad it got), but the Confederacy was unsustainable once Grant took Vicksburg. The Union won the war in the West: New Orleans in 1862; Vicksburg; Chattanooga.


A Lee victory at Gettysburg would have changed the course of the war in the North, certainly, especially given how badly things were going in West Virginia at the time. The Union might (probably would) have had to divert part of its strength from Tennessee east, which probably would have made the Tullahoma campaign and Chattanooga impossible in 1863.

-- MWE
   751. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 02, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4291270)
THAT'S IT, I'M DISCONNECTING MY PHONE UNTIL TUESDAY!! I was getting 2-3 calls a week, then 2-3 a day. I just got 3 in the last hour

I'm in Virginia - perceived as a swing state - and it's been non-stop election-related calls for quite some time. Robocalls with messages, invitations to political events, polls, and surveys by campaigns and those that probably want to sell my data to campaigns or political fundraisers. Now that I'm enjoying my well-deserved retirement, I'm home during the day a lot, and those calls are a major annoyance. I don't need anyone's help to make up my mind, and I think most people feel like that regardless of whether others would classify them as high information voters. For this and other reasons, the conventional wisdom extolling the value of the ground game may overstate its importance. Perhaps some candidate should try running on a "Vote For Me And I Won't Bother You Again" slogan.
   752. Mefisto Posted: November 02, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4291271)
My best guess is that a defeat at Gettysburg would have accelerated Grant's appointment in the East, and that he would still have left Sherman in charge in the West. It wouldn't have played out exactly the same way, of course, but Sherman wouldn't have been caught at Chickamauga and still would have continued to take the war to the deep South.

All speculation, of course.
   753. Morty Causa Posted: November 02, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4291273)

Certainly true. But I wonder how particularly unique this is to the current-day USA. We are, everyone, the descendants of warring tribes (and in many places in the world, we're still active members of warring tribes), and while this civilization thingie has been a profound success in countless ways, we're still the same animals underneath.

Agonizing over the human condition doesn't seem an especially fruitful exercise. I prefer to acknowledge it for what it is, and try to nudge the stubborn boulder of progress forward by a fraction. YMMV.


My mileage does vary. Recognizing the tribal is only step one. Step two is understanding consenting to a process that gets you beyond that. If you’re not willing to do that, endless contention is the order of the day.

Every facet and aspect of American politics is an Us v. Them construct. We no longer can find our way through our system to find a way to reconciliation. Reconciliation, in fact, by a larger and larger segment of the participants, is no longer valued, much less prized.

The problem is the system is ######. People hate to hear this because they have made of the Constitution a text of holy writ, we have imbued our system and our process with this sense of ineffable awe and majesty. Everything about us is all so exceptional. Yet, this system and process was conceived in a matrix that didn't prize coming to terms. Things move like they do now and now we need a system that is efficient and effective. The one we have isn't it.

For a long time, we had custom and tradition when it came to getting things done. This has broken down. What takes its place?
   754. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: November 02, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4291283)
The NYC Marathon has been cancelled.


My gf was planning on running the marathon. She is beyond pissed about this coming out tonight, of all nights. Her parents are flying in from Chicago tomorrow morning. She'd secured charitable donations for her run (raising far more money than she could ever donate herself.)

...very seriously, in good faith: what damage does running the marathon pose to Staten Island?
   755. GregD Posted: November 02, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4291284)
Morty,
I agree with you that treating the Constitution is writ is silly and self-destructive. Not sure the system has broken down relative to the past. It's a frustrating moment, but most political moments are frustrating. Politics doesn't build consensus; it isolates differences. Most periods of US history have been fraught and conflictual and have frustrated people on all sides. After the Civil War ended slavery, people spent 30 years screaming about tariffs and coinage ratios, things no one understood at all. In the 20s everybody screamed about prohibition. There's always something.

The other thing I believe is that politics rarely keeps us from simple solutions since they are rarely such simple solutions available. There are often two different contradictory solutions, each simple on its own terms, and politics is where people fight out over which to try.

Close and ill-tempered elections are part of the norm.

Now if we get close to default...
   756. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 02, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4291289)
I don't see how the two of them don't go to war several times as they both expand their nations.
Quite possibly, but not necessarily with each other. Other posters have pointed out that there was plenty of opportunity to expand--the North into Western Canada, the South into Mexico. It might have been much more prudent to not ignite a war between the states over a few square miles of border farmland. As for pure land area, the West wasn't going to be even moderately settled for half a century, and I'm assuming any rapprochement in 1860-61 would have included a tolerable division of the West. I can see skirmishes here and there between private landowners, but unless one of the North or South thought they had a potent military advantage, there were overwhelming reasons to avoid a war between the two.

The GOP's co-optation of them was one of the great political maneuvers in US history, but it is driving the party full-speed into a blind alley, ever-increasing the zealous devotion of this base while simultaneously repelling nearly all others even as the others grow in proportional representation.
While I'd like this to be true, I'm pretty sure it isn't. This, THIS Republican party, that ran out a dozen dwarfs in the 2011-12 primary process, that disavows science, that nominated a man who, even by the incredibly low standards of politicians, seems incapable of even rudimentary honesty, is within a few thousand votes of winning the Presidency, has a useful majority in the House, and isn't all that far from taking the Senate.

This is a party that clearly, demonstrably, relentlessly put its interests above that of the country, and is nonetheless inches from power. As perverted and corrupt as the Supreme Court has been, a Romney Presidency that puts a couple more Scalia's on the court could, in a few years, make Citizens United look like a centrist way station re campaign cash on the way to the wholesale delivering of the political process to a few hundred of the wealthiest citizens.

I just can't agree that the GOP has reached a blind alley. They were a handful of state court decisions from effectively stealing the presidency by way of vote suppression. There's a vicious, soulless streak in the American character that delights in brutality. This GOP has effectively tapped into that streak. Expect an incredibly protracted resistance to the slow, slow loss of power. If this GOP had adopted a more Bushian approach to immigration I suspect we'd be looking right now at an easy Romney win.


The problem stems from years of treating them as just ignorant Redneck types who need to somehow be circumvented. If that's the way game is going to be played, then they'll play it that way. They'll fight it on terms of winning--not on terms of what's right.
The idea that the Jim Crow south was happy to play by Marquis of Queensbury rules until those vile Northerners sucker punched them is, well, remarkable.

You really were no better than they were. You can't be trusted. You reneged on your enunciated principle.
We'll have to stop there, then. I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

edit: and yet, 729 is remarkably astute.
   757. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: November 02, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4291293)
...very seriously, in good faith: what damage does running the marathon pose to Staten Island?


The generators involved could instead be used to restore power to 400 homes. The police have other things to be doing right now than monitoring a race.

Also, the marathon shuts down the Verrazano and Queensboro Bridges, in addition to 4th Avenue (although I guess that's technically "damage to Brooklyn", which isn't exactly what you asked). At a time when other arteries are still unusable due to the hurricane, main thoroughfares should be kept open.
   758. Mefisto Posted: November 02, 2012 at 08:59 PM (#4291296)
Anyone who thinks that today's Republican Party will somehow moderate needs to remember the lessons of the Democratic Party in the South. From its foundation under Jefferson until its transmogrification into the Republican Party of today, that party has stayed remarkably the same on the fundamental issues: race and oligarchy. It never changed when it lost national power; it tried war first and then retreated into the states, where it maintained its principles (such as they are) for 100 years. It won't change in the future.
   759. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:01 PM (#4291297)

Huge crowd in Ohio tonight in support of oligarchy (or something).
   760. Morty Causa Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:01 PM (#4291298)
The problem stems from years of treating them as just ignorant Redneck types who need to somehow be circumvented. If that's the way game is going to be played, then they'll play it that way. They'll fight it on terms of winning--not on terms of what's right.

The idea that the Jim Crow south was happy to play by Marquis of Queensbury rules until those vile Northerners sucker punched them is, well, remarkable.

What's not remarkable is that when someone speaks about people (persons, individuals) in the South, you speak of the "Jim Crow south". Muppet morality.

You really were no better than they were. You can't be trusted. You reneged on your enunciated principle.

We'll have to stop there, then. I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

I don't think you ever did, and I don't think you ever tried--but that is a smart career move. Stick with it.
   761. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4291301)
@761--no snark, Morty. Sometimes you make sense, as in 729. Other times you don't. And all the flailing doesn't make for appealing or interesting conversation. Sorry.

...very seriously, in good faith: what damage does running the marathon pose to Staten Island?
Since I don't know, I'm just asking, doesn't the marathon require a lot of streets to be closed? I can see how that would limit already limited routes of supplies to, among other places, Staten Island. Wouldn't the thousand(s) of police required to keep the event safe be better placed in, say, Staten Island?

And what Monty wrote in 757.
   762. Morty Causa Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:09 PM (#4291304)
From its foundation under Jefferson until its transmogrification into the Republican Party of today, that party has stayed remarkably the same on the fundamental issues: race and oligarchy. It never changed when it lost national power; it tried war first and then retreated into the states, where it maintained its principles (such as they are) for 100 years. It won't change in the future.


Yet, it gets away with it. In the view of many, it's as if we're obligated to always go back to the Constitution as it was first proposed (to the extent we can know that) and the government as it first functioned--as if nothing has happened (including a Civil War) to change any of that through the course of over 200 years. That is so stupid and so dishonest it boggles the imagination. Yet, they are taken seriously. No one questions the legitimacy of rehashing current problems and crisises in terms of 1787 or pre-Civil War state right statuses.
   763. bookbook Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:09 PM (#4291305)
Most of me thinks that we've passed the time of race-based affirmative action. Yet, then I read a study where they send out identical job applications, only with different names. The "white sounding" name gets called in for an interview 50% more often than a "black sounding" name. On identical resumes. From HR departments that I'm certain don't think they're acting out of prejudice at all.

Affirmative action is still not enough to level the playing field in our society. It doesn't even get to equal opportunity for equally qualified workers.
   764. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4291309)
edit: But was also politically impossible was an indefinite cotton embargo to the old world textile mills. A Lee victory at Gettysburg signals a possible war without end, and the accompanying cotton starvation without end, and that would have been just as disastrous to their governments.


Replace cotton with oil. Replace the American Civil War with the Middle East. Replace England/France with USA/England.
   765. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4291313)
This is a party that clearly, demonstrably, relentlessly put its interests above that of the country, and is nonetheless inches from power.


It's still inches from power because it relentlessly puts its interests - i.e. the interests of its base - above country. Because it's base - white men - are still the plurality of voters in the United States. And if you ask them, they're not putting party before country, they're defending the only party that still represents the "real America." They believe their party and the country are identical, and people who oppose their party are traitors.
   766. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:26 PM (#4291315)
spankz--@727, thanks for the link to Wills' review of Nixonland. It's a strange delight to read that Will thinks that polarization has largely disappeared from American politics (as of 2008), and the bulk of his evidence is that some high-ranking positions are no longer held by whites.

Obama's president. We MUST be post-racial!
   767. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4291318)
Quite possibly, but not necessarily with each other.

Most definitely with each other.

After 1860 you've got the railroads heading out to California for the gold, you've got transportation across Panama, you've got the Silver Rush in California, the Comstock Lode just before 1860, and in Colorado. You've got oil in Penn and Ohio and then Texas.

The South was resource poor for the Industrial Age and expansion by the North would effectively kill them so they couldn't allow while expansion by the South would inflame the North.

As for Britain getting in the way, they didn't want a war and had no real intention of going to war to put an end to the Civil War. Economically it was bad business as well as militarily. England was heavily invested in America and a war against the North would be ruinous to their economy and their government. Their people didn't want a war nor did their businessmen or bankers. If they ever did ask for an end it would be a giant bluff in which they would think the North couldn't say no because they couldn't risk going to war with England. Neither Gettysburg nor Antietam was going to cause that. The North would have to have worse defeats that that. DC would have to fall and that wasn't really going to happen.
   768. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4291319)
Silver has Obama winning 304 EVs, a 84% shot of winning the EC, and particularly surprising to me, a 2.1% lead in the popular vote, 50.5 to 48.4.

Affirmative action is still not enough to level the playing field in our society. It doesn't even get to equal opportunity for equally qualified workers.
Sounds about right. What's the next step?

I would have favored reparations rather than affirmative action, but I don't think they should have been mixed.

   769. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:36 PM (#4291320)
Like I said before I think by the time Tuesday gets here Obama will have a 3 point lead and I think he has an outside shot of winning by 5.
   770. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:37 PM (#4291321)
RCP is back to +.1 for Obama as the ABC News/Wash Post gives Romney a +1.
   771. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:39 PM (#4291322)
To be honest, bickering about polls is more than a little boring, especially when we're going to find out in 4 or 5 days who was right and who was wrong.

But after that introductory self-serving BS, here's an interesting piece by Nick Gourevitch that should keep Joe out of trouble for a while.....

Is Romney's Lead With Independents a Mirage?

   772. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:41 PM (#4291323)
By the way the ABC/WP poll has likely voters at at 95 to 97%.

32-29 Democrat. Sadly they don't ask the independents to say which way they lean.
   773. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:45 PM (#4291325)
Some early voting info from Politico:

In Colorado, Republicans have cast 38 percent of the early vote to 35 percent for Democrats and 27 percent for unaffiliated voters. Four years ago, the numbers were reversed: Democrats cast 38 percent, Republicans 36 percent and independents 26 percent.

In Iowa, 43 percent of the early vote this year has been cast by Democrats, 32 percent by Republicans and 24 percent by no party or other. In 2008, the numbers were 47 (D) 29 (R) 24 (NP).

While Nevada doesn’t provide comparative statewide early vote data between 2008 and 2012, a similar pattern emerges in the two counties where the bulk of the state vote will be cast – the Democratic percentage of early votes is down slightly and there’s an uptick in the GOP percentage.

In both Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno), Democrats continue to outpace Republicans, but by a diminished margin over 2008.

Back then, Democrats held a 52 percent to 31 percent early vote advantage in Clark County. This year, the margin is 48-33. In Washoe, it was 47-35 in 2008 and it’s 41-40 this year.
   774. Howie Menckel Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:49 PM (#4291328)
The problem with the marathon was that the high doses of water and snacks needed by the participants:

- are needed in lesser quantities if they just take the weekend off

- are just the sort of thing that tens of thousands (understatement of the week) of local people do not have and need badly.

also true of generators, police manpower, volunteers, etc.

running the race almost would feel like if a celebrity dressed up on Wednesday night in Manhattan for Halloween as Marie Antoinette:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/let_them_eat_cake_SmDVCnm12OorMhfN2ag5kO

that said, it stinks that it was canceled so late that the visitors have already arrived yet don't get to race. That's on Bloomberg.


   775. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4291330)
Pretty stupid and short sighted of people to arrive to NYC for the marathon. Is running 26 miles really worth more then everything else that was going on?
   776. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:52 PM (#4291333)
But after that introductory self-serving BS, here's an interesting piece by Nick Gourevitch that should keep Joe out of trouble for a while.....

Is Romney's Lead With Independents a Mirage?

Interesting article, but the headline is out of whack with the info. presented. Romney's advantage with independents might be the highest in the most pro-Dem polls, but Romney still leads independents handily even in the polls with the lowest Dem/GOP splits.

In other news, Karl Rove says that Dems are down ~220,000 in early and absentee voting in Ohio compared to 2008, while the GOP is up over 30,000. This 250,000-vote swing almost entirely covers Obama's margin of victory in Ohio in 2008 (and McCain won Election Day voting in Ohio).
   777. Lassus Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:55 PM (#4291335)
Bloomberg's quote about cancelling the marathon is the petulant passive/aggressive dick statement of the year.
   778. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:57 PM (#4291342)
Pretty stupid and short sighted of people to arrive to NYC for the marathon. Is running 26 miles really worth more then everything else that was going on?

I tend to think marathon runners are nuts, but they train for these things for months or years. Getting to NYC on Friday, for a Sunday race, doesn't seem stupid at all.
   779. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:58 PM (#4291343)
It's still inches from power because it relentlessly puts its interests - i.e. the interests of its base - above country. Because it's base - white men - are still the plurality of voters in the United States. And if you ask them, they're not putting party before country, they're defending the only party that still represents the "real America." They believe their party and the country are identical, and people who oppose their party are traitors.
It took me a long time to understand that pov was not avuncular theatricality, but was genuinely, fiercely held. I used to argue with those guys and you could never get them to admit facts of any kind that remotely contradicted articles of faith. Not to say that people generally apply reason with any kind of real acuity, but it was remarkable.

@777--yup. Weird. Bloomberg's politically savvy, much of the time. This whole business with the marathon seems extremely tone deaf, as though he got it in his head that a stiff upper lip was the way to go, and only relented in the face of a dozen advisors hollering otherwise.
   780. Tilden Katz Posted: November 02, 2012 at 09:59 PM (#4291345)
In other news, Karl Rove says that Dems are down ~220,000 in early and absentee voting in Ohio compared to 2008, while the GOP is up over 30,000. This 250,000-vote swing almost entirely covers Obama's margin of victory in Ohio in 2008 (and McCain won Election Day voting in Ohio).


Why should the words of Karl Rove be given any credence this late in an election season? If you listen to campaign officials this close to an election you'd expect Tuesday's result to be a 55-55 tie.
   781. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:01 PM (#4291346)
Pretty stupid and short sighted of people to arrive to NYC for the marathon. Is running 26 miles really worth more then everything else that was going on?


Seriously. I have called my clients in central Jersey three times this week simply to ask "are you sure you want me flying in next week?" And I immediately cancelled the planned weekend in NYC when it was clear Sandy was going ashore in the area.
   782. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:04 PM (#4291347)
Weird. Bloomberg's politically savvy, much of the time. This whole business with the marathon seems extremely tone deaf, as though he got it in his head that a stiff upper lip was the way to go, and only relented in the face of a dozen advisors hollering otherwise.


Seems the Mayor decided that the marathon was the way to show the world that NYC was too tough to be anything remotely like the victim of natural disaster a lesser city (*ahem*NOLA*ahem*) might have been, and was not welcoming to contrary points of view. Just a guess from a thousand miles away.
   783. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:05 PM (#4291348)
Why should the words of Karl Rove be given any credence this late in an election season? If you listen to campaign officials this close to an election you'd expect Tuesday's result to be a 55-55 tie.

Well, the numbers Rove claimed are easily verifiable with the Ohio elections people. Early voting numbers are released on a daily basis.
   784. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4291350)
In Florida 3.5 million voters voted early with the voter being identified by party 43-40 Democrat.
Iowa has 584,000 early voters with it being 42-32 Democrat.
North Carolina has 2.3 million early votes with it being 48-32 Democrat
   785. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:13 PM (#4291353)
Not surprised to see yankee clapper and joe getting increasingly spittle flecked as Romney's polling collapses. Joe is now touting a single tracking poll with a 1 point Romney lead despite the fact that every other horse race poll shows aobama up or a tie. Meanwhile, Obama continues to lead in almost evey swing state poll. Why on earth is Paul Ryan going to Minnesota? Why no events jn Florida? Romney cannot lose Florida and have any plausible victory path, yet polls there show a near tossup. About all I can think is that Ryan is so toxic they want to stash him somewhere meaningless.
   786. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:14 PM (#4291355)
Ask yourself this honest question...more likely scenario, R wins PA or MN or Obama wins Fl?
   787. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4291357)
In Ohio almost all of the early and absentee ballots are in. Dems have a 63,000 person lead over Rep. 12 counties have not issue any information on their voter breakdown and another 30 counties or so haven't updated their data in a week or more. In some cases it has been a month.

Compared to the data in 2008 the Dems have come up about 50,000 short of what they did while the Reps have improved by about 70,00 or so. But it is important to note that Ohio has open primaries so in the end it really is anybody's guess as to what the early voting numbers are saying absent polling data on those people.

The polling data that we do have on Ohio early voting is that it is going Obama's by a huge margin which suggests that a lot of the so called republican voters in the primary weren't really Republicans.
   788. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:17 PM (#4291358)
In Florida 3.5 million voters voted early with the voter being identified by party 43-40 Democrat.

In 2008, early and absentee in Florida = 4,377,774, with Dems enjoying a 45.6 to 37.3 percent advantage. (GOP +5.3 in 2012.)

Iowa has 584,000 early voters with it being 42-32 Democrat.

In 2008, early voting = 481,179, with Dems enjoying a 47-29 advantage. (GOP +8 in 2012.)

North Carolina has 2.3 million early votes with it being 48-32 Democrat

In 2008, early voting = 2,623,838, with Dems enjoying a 51-30 advantage. (GOP +5 in 2012.)

source
   789. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:19 PM (#4291360)
I don't think Paul Ryan is toxic and I haven't seen anything that would lead me to believe the voters think that as well. Paul Ryan is pretty much a non-entity at this point which is what the standard VP selection is in an election. Nobody besides Sarah Palin goes Palin in an election.

I think Paul is in Minnesota instead of Florida because Paul Ryan has no juice in Florida while in Minnesota he has some juice there while also bringing attnetion to the Republinca over in Wisconsin. I think quite simply it is about bang for your buck at this point.
   790. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:23 PM (#4291365)
Seems the Mayor decided that the marathon was the way to show the world that NYC was too tough to be anything remotely like the victim of natural disaster a lesser city (*ahem*NOLA*ahem*) might have been, and was not welcoming to contrary points of view. Just a guess from a thousand miles away.


Yeah, he seemed to think there was a parallel to this and post-9/11 baseball. But baseball came back ten days later. Oh, and it was mostly confined to the baseball stadiums.
   791. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:25 PM (#4291370)
Joe is now touting a single tracking poll with a 1 point Romney lead despite the fact that every other horse race poll shows aobama up or a tie.

You might want to stop by RCP.
   792. Tilden Katz Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:31 PM (#4291373)
You might want to stop by RCP.


RCP has Obama up by 0.1. Every other tracking poll taken during the last 5 days has Obama up or a tie.
   793. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4291374)
In 2008, early and absentee in Florida = 4,377,774, with Dems enjoying a 45.6 to 37.3 percent advantage. (GOP +5.3 in 2012.)

Iowa has 584,000 early voters with it being 42-32 Democrat.

In 2008, early voting = 481,179, with Dems enjoying a 47-29 advantage. (GOP +8 in 2012.)

North Carolina has 2.3 million early votes with it being 48-32 Democrat

In 2008, early voting = 2,623,838, with Dems enjoying a 51-30 advantage. (GOP +5 in 2012.)


How are the Dem/Rep splits being calculated? If it's based on whether somebody voted in the Democratic or Republican primary, then I don't think 2012 - where the Dem candidate for President ran unopposed, while the Republicans had a hard-fought 2-4 person race through most of the primary season - can be meaningfully compared to 2008 - when the Dems had a classic 50/50 two-person battle while the Republicans had a 2-4 person race through most of the primary season. How many of those "Republicans" are liberals who took a Republican ballot this past spring because there were no interesting races on the Democratic side (obviously the latter caveat would be state-specific; I'm sure some states had interesting Democratic primary battles for other races - Senate, Governor, et al.)?
   794. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:37 PM (#4291378)
Well...perhaps the Minnesota stop is useful in driving a certain narrative abiut Romney confidence. But there is zero chance of the state going for Romney.
   795. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:40 PM (#4291383)
RCP has Obama up by 0.1. Every other tracking poll taken during the last 5 days has Obama up or a tie.

In the 10 polls in the RCP average, Obama leads in four, Romney leads in three, and three are tied. "Weekly Journalist" made it sound like Obama was +3.0 and I went nuts over a single Romney +1 poll.

***
How are the Dem/Rep splits being calculated? If it's based on whether somebody voted in the Democratic or Republican primary, then I don't think 2012 - where the Dem candidate for President ran unopposed, while the Republicans had a hard-fought 2-4 person race through most of the primary season - can be meaningfully compared to 2008 - when the Dems had a classic 50/50 two-person battle while the Republicans had a 2-4 person race through most of the primary season. How many of those "Republicans" are liberals who took a Republican ballot this past spring because there were no interesting races on the Democratic side (obviously the latter caveat would be state-specific; I'm sure some states had interesting Democratic primary battles for other races - Senate, Governor, et al.)?

None of those three states have an open primary, so these questions seem moot.
   796. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4291386)
In Iowa they don't have a primary and to take part in the caucus you must be a registered memeber of the party.
Florida is a closed primary
North Carolina is a semi-closed primary where unaffiliated voters can take part in the primaries.

   797. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:45 PM (#4291387)
None of those three states have an open primary, so these questions seem moot.


Actually, that makes the question even more relevant. How hard is it to change the party identification attached to your voter registration? According to CNN exit polls, for example, 25% of voters in the Iowa caucus self-identified as either Democrats or Independents and 17% self-identified as "Moderate or Liberal" (as opposed to "Somewhat Conservative" or "Very Conservative").
   798. McCoy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:47 PM (#4291388)
As for early voting I'm not really worried. The Republicans have made a concerted effort to utilize early voting. Early voting is going to be the new norm in elections from here on out. That is unless state governments screw with them. Frankly if I was a Republican I would be really worried if my party hadn't improved on their early voting numbers.

So now we have to wait and see what that does to the day of numbers and obviously to the overall numbers. Every vote you cast now is one less vote that gets cast on Tuesday. The real questions are how many of your people can you get to vote and how many new people can you get to vote.
   799. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:49 PM (#4291391)
I have resolutely ignored the polling, so the first time I've looked at anything is the link to RCP that Joe just provided.

It shows three "Obama +1," two "Romney +1," a "Romney +5," an "Obama +5," and three ties. Based on absolutely no analysis, I'm going to declare Gallup (Romney +5) and National Journal (Obama +5) obvious outliers that should be ignored.

Also, since all the other polls essentially balance out, I rule that they're all a waste of time. Clearly the person who will win is the person who I want to win.
   800. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:49 PM (#4291392)
How are the Dem/Rep splits being calculated?

The article linked in #773 seems to indicate that party registration data is available on absentee ballot voters in the states mentioned therein.
Page 8 of 114 pages ‹ First  < 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 >  Last ›

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
1k5v3L
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP April 2014: BurstNET Sued for Not Making Equipment Lease Payments
(1606 - 11:46am, Apr 18)
Last: Rickey! In a van on 95 south...

NewsblogRB: Carlos Beltran: more of a center fielder than Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb or Duke Snider. So what?
(10 - 11:45am, Apr 18)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogDoug Glanville: I Was Racially Profiled in My Own Driveway
(251 - 11:44am, Apr 18)
Last: Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 4-18-2014
(13 - 11:43am, Apr 18)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogDesign Room: Top 10 Logos in MLB History.
(52 - 11:41am, Apr 18)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogMitchell: Now Playing First Base for the Yankees
(24 - 11:39am, Apr 18)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogNY Daily News: Secret Service Threatened To Shoot Mr. Met
(3 - 11:37am, Apr 18)
Last: JE (Jason Epstein)

NewsblogOMNICHATTER FOR APRIL 18, 2014
(3 - 11:35am, Apr 18)
Last: Joey B. is being stalked by a (Gonfa) loon

NewsblogGleeman: Mets minor league team is hosting “Seinfeld night”
(146 - 11:27am, Apr 18)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread March, 2014
(889 - 11:13am, Apr 18)
Last: DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta."

NewsblogOT: The NHL is finally back thread, part 2
(140 - 10:53am, Apr 18)
Last: Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits

NewsblogOrioles launch D.C. invasion with billboard near Nationals Park
(25 - 10:51am, Apr 18)
Last: Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October

NewsblogNightengale: Pujols nears 500 home runs...and no one seems to care
(81 - 10:42am, Apr 18)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogMinuteman News Center: Giandurco: This means WAR
(69 - 10:37am, Apr 18)
Last: Karl from NY

NewsblogDaniel Bryan's 'YES!' chant has spread to the Pirates' dugout
(76 - 10:26am, Apr 18)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 1.0969 seconds
52 querie(s) executed