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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   7101. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:26 AM (#4300394)
everybody knows how to type now. Everybody.


Except me. Still hunting and pecking after all these years.
   7102. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:27 AM (#4300395)
Writing quantity, at all levels of quantity. More terrible writing and more excellent writing.

I think the problem is that the terrible writing in more accessible.

For example, take the comment section of any big media website. In the old days, if some of those guys could sum up the organization to write an incoherent letter to an editor or something, it would simply find its way into the wastebasket.
   7103. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4300396)
Unless there's a pertinent national security issue, I don't believe the FBI should be reporting the ongoing results of an investigation to the president.


There was:

FBI agents were pursuing what they thought was a potential cybercrime, or a breach of classified information.

...

Top officials signed off on the interviews, which occurred in late September and October, just before the U.S. presidential election. During Ms. Broadwell's first interview in September, she admitted to the affair and turned over her computer, the officials said.

On her computer, investigators found classified documents, the U.S. officials said, a discovery that raised new concerns.

At Mr. Petraeus's interview in the week before the election, he also admitted the affair and said he hadn't provided the classified documents to Ms. Broadwell. Agents conducted a second interview with Ms. Broadwell on Nov. 2. She also said Mr. Petraeus wasn't the source of the documents.


   7104. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:31 AM (#4300397)
I read this three times and it makes no sense, and at best is non-responsive. They weren't investigating him for "marital infidelity" - do you have even the faintest notion of the facts thus far? - and you don't provide any reason for why they wouldn't inform the president of the investigation in any event.
Maybe you'll make it on the fourth try. See, if national security is not at stake, it's an investigation. Not a trial after charges have been filed. Nothing is at stake beyond Petraeus' reputation IF the investigation is only about cheating.

Your question wasn't about the facts, it was about "why" they wouldn't tell Obama. I offered an explanation.

edit: on reading 7103, that was news to me. In the case that there was any doubt about Petraeus' integrity wrt national security then, yes, Obama should have been told.

There remains the inevitability that Obama gets told things by, say, his Chief of Staff in a private meeting so that he can deny knowing x or y. I assume we all know that every President, even Jimmy Carter, works this way. I wouldn't assume that 'The President was unaware of the investigation' means 'The President was unaware of the investigation'.
   7105. billyshears Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4300400)
I love it when liberals act shocked, shocked to learn that the cost of affirmative action is that peoples' accomplishments may be unfairly denigrated. As if opponents of AA didn't cite this as a specific problem with the policies, only to be handwaved away by liberals.


It's a bit disingenuous when it's the same opponents of AA who are making that criticism of AA and also denigrating the accomplishments of minorities.
   7106. tshipman Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4300401)
Why wouldn't you?


To prevent corruption? So that way POTUS doesn't say, don't investigate Dir. of CIA. It would be bad for us in an election year.
   7107. Swoboda is freedom Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4300402)
everybody knows how to type now. Everybody.


Yskjfhsk lksdhfsyur ksldfl. LAKJFHK?
   7108. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:41 AM (#4300403)
I love it when liberals act shocked, shocked to learn that the cost of affirmative action is that peoples' accomplishments may be unfairly denigrated. As if opponents of AA didn't cite this as a specific problem with the policies, only to be handwaved away by liberals.
If by 'unfairly denigrated' you mean that AA sometimes causes more qualified white people to be passed over for positions that go to less qualified minorities, then of course that happens.

Anyone denying it is just being silly. Was that what you meant, though?
   7109. Lassus Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:11 AM (#4300406)
   7110. Srul Itza At Home Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:15 AM (#4300408)
"Gentlemen, shake hands with the man to the left of you. Now shake hands with the man to the right of you. You have just shaken hands with a valedictorian."


The one I remember is: Look to the person at your left. Look to the person at your right. In 4 yours, 1 of you won't be here." And that was not inaccurate.

   7111. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:15 AM (#4300409)
I love it when liberals act shocked, shocked to learn that the cost of affirmative action is that peoples' accomplishments may be unfairly denigrated by people like me


FTFY.
   7112. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:17 AM (#4300411)
This indicates to me that Nate is a starry-eyed fool who will eventually be broken on the rocks of reality.


Maybe so, but he's OUR starry-eyed fool, and we need to help him hold out for as long as possible.

Nixon's dead?


If you go back a couple of pages, I believe you'll find that I already posted the song about that.

I only half qualify, since I've rooted for Carolina since I was 12.


Did your roommate know, and if so, why didn't he smother you in your sleep?
   7113. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:22 AM (#4300412)
I love it when liberals act shocked, shocked to learn that the cost of affirmative action is that peoples' accomplishments may be unfairly denigrated by people like me


FTFY.


This is idiotic. Go back and look at the thread a couple of months ago, for example, where I was defending Obama against the charges that he was on law review - let alone editor - or a lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School because of affirmative action.

Really, go scratch.
   7114. Srul Itza At Home Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:25 AM (#4300414)
They weren't investigating him for "marital infidelity"


Actually, they were investigating Broadbent, and stumbled on her affair with him.
   7115. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:30 AM (#4300415)
re: Petraeus, does anyone have the go-to article on what happened, and when, and who knew what, and when they knew it?
   7116. GregD Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:41 AM (#4300418)
Bill James said he thought of Mickey Mantle as Southern and I think that feels right to me. Johnny Bench on the other hand, I would never think of as a Southerner even though he spent his career just over the river. Not just because he's Cherokee--they're Southerners too! But nothing about him seems Southern to me. Your mileage may vary. I don't know how to class Oklahoma. Politically it was not a part of the Solid South in pres elections and seems to go with Kansas to the Reps as often as it goes with Arkansas and Texas to the Dems.

   7117. GregD Posted: November 12, 2012 at 02:03 AM (#4300424)
re: Petraeus, does anyone have the go-to article on what happened, and when, and who knew what, and when they knew it?
This Wall Street Journal article is good
   7118. phredbird Posted: November 12, 2012 at 02:08 AM (#4300425)
mickey mantle was not a southerner. he was a country boy from oklahoma. oklahoma is not the south. period.
   7119. OCF Posted: November 12, 2012 at 02:11 AM (#4300427)
Politically it was not a part of the Solid South in pres elections

When I was growing up, Oklahoma's local politics was total yellow-dog Democrat. The governor's race was decided by the Democratic primary, and the Congressman and Senators were Democrats. (OK, voting for president was different.) My own county, on the northern border, would vote locally Republican, but it was unusual. Also, Oklahoma had de jure school segregation until Brown and de facto school segregation for some time after that. And somehow that required Oklahoma History class they made me take in junior high school never got around to mentioning the horrific Tulsa race riot of the post-WWI years. As I said in 7100, much of the character of the state assumed from the white in-migration at the end of the 19th century was fairly Southern, even though I never would have claimed that. And the local politics has completed the southern realignment and is now totally Republican.

Mantle was from the extreme northeast corner of the state, from the mining district whose biggest cities are Joplin, MO, and Pittsburg, KS. That's barely even in Oklahoma. Bench was from the middle of the state, near OKC.
   7120. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 12, 2012 at 02:55 AM (#4300432)
Thanks, Greg.

A salient section:

U.S. spy agencies are required to inform leaders of the intelligence committees of "significant intelligence activities," and the affair represented the potential for a security compromise, a congressional aide said.

However, U.S. officials briefed on the matter said the probe was closely held among officials at the FBI and Justice under a long-standing policy not to divulge information on continuing criminal investigations.

The disclosure policy was reinforced in a 2007 memorandum by Michael Mukasey, who was then attorney general under President George W. Bush. The memorandum, issued in the wake of the scandal over the firings of U.S. attorneys, sought to remind department employees that contacts with the White House and Congress about pending criminal matters were off limits.


I suppose that's what the fighting will be around.
   7121. GregD Posted: November 12, 2012 at 02:57 AM (#4300433)
The politics must be fascinating, OCF, since I always thought politically they were southerners and knew about segregation there. But they vote Republican a lot more than Southern states did back then. By 52 they were Republican in every election but one, the 64 landslide, while it took the rest of the South much much longer to turn in presidential elections. Ike twice, Nixon every time. Solidly New Deal Dem from 32 to 48, before that R in 28 (though that could be the anti-Catholic factor), Dem in 24, R in 20, after being Dem its first three times. I don't know what state quite looks like that. By contrast Texas goes R once in 28 against Al Smith, then twice for Ike, then once for Nixon in 72, then back to Carter in 76, then turns R reliably in 80. Arkansas did not vote R from 1872 to 1972, turned R from 80-88, came back for Clinton, then flipped. Missouri's different, and Kansas and Nebraska are obviously much more steadily R. Oklahoma just is off on its deal in pres elections for much of the century.
   7122. GregD Posted: November 12, 2012 at 03:11 AM (#4300434)
Jack, the Times piece this morningis also interesting. It presents the FBI as thinking hard about when and what to do. I won't say that inherently reassures me, since people can think hard and come to foolish choices. It also suggests the outing was due to an FBI agent who was a friend of the other other woman and--if I'm reading it right--mistakenly believed the case had been dropped and took it to Republicans in Congress to keep it from dying. Who knows?
   7123. BrianBrianson Posted: November 12, 2012 at 05:56 AM (#4300440)
The largest change I have seen in undergraduate writing over the past two decades involves how plagiarism affects their writing. The worst case I have seen was at an elite liberal-arts college where one student pasted in material from Wikipedia that included an image, URLs, and formatting. Most students are not as clumsy, but the internet has changed the way I structure research and writing assignments. As for syntax, spelling, and structural issues, it is as it was.


The slow but steady stream of people being caught for decades old plagarism makes me suspect that this kind of plagarism was always rapent; the world is full of Karl-Theodor zu Guttenbergs and Victor Pontas; the difference is that computers and the internet has made it far, far more obvious when people are doing it. Twenty years ago, copying out a book was easier than pissing in the shower (though not half as fun), and the chances of a teacher/professor catching you were close to zero - they weren't going to look through dozens of books hoping to find it. These days, place a couple sentences in Google, and you have your answer. If anything, I'd bet plagarism is actually going down - just not as fast as our ability to capture it is going up.
   7124. Gonfalon B. Posted: November 12, 2012 at 06:50 AM (#4300441)
Re: #7059-7063-7064-7065--
Florida might be in the south but it isn't in The South.

Yeah, Oklahoma isn't really "the South" either.

Concur. This is just saying "Romney did even worse if you remove the states where he did well!" It's the exit polling equivalent of arbitrary end points.


So take Florida and Oklahoma out, and Romney improves by ~385,000 votes in that comparison, making up about 1/20th of the margin. The point isn't "take away Romney's good states and wow does he suck," it's that the GOP has a logistical and strategic problem with the proportions of its support (especially since Florida and Virginia are already purple and Texas is trending that way).
   7125. Johnny Temporary Posted: November 12, 2012 at 07:23 AM (#4300444)
I don't know if young lawyers are any better or worse at writing now than they used to be. But what strikes me is that there seems to be little or no relationship between how well they write and what grades they got or what school they went to
   7126. thok Posted: November 12, 2012 at 08:07 AM (#4300446)
Math can be drilled.


Arithmetic can be drilled. Once you start getting anywhere past that there's a creative element to determine how to organize problems plus a requirement to clearly state your methods of solving the problem. To be fair, I've graded enough math papers to know most students haven't fully developed those skills.

Also, a bit of unsolicited advice to those who have children taking calculus in their junior year; if they want to take more math in the senior year, encourage them to take things like discrete math/combinatorics or probability or statistics over differential equations/multivariable calculus. Especially undergraduate multivariable calculus, which is an absolute mess of a course designed to badly teach a few tools necessary for engineering courses; if you children want to go that route, they'll have time to do it in college. (If they are taking Calculus AB, then taking Calculus BC is fine. Also, the key word is encourage; your child probably has a better feel for their mathematical interests than you do.)
   7127. formerly dp Posted: November 12, 2012 at 08:44 AM (#4300449)
OK, going back to last night. And I'm glad you appreciated the quip to GregD.
I appreciate the nod to Deleuze there, and I promise you that I will keep an eye out for when Nate jumps the shark from modeling uncertain modulations of perceptibility to claiming to be presenting the thing-in-itself.

I wasn't making that complex a point: Nate made the tool. Media types made the tool do more than it was intended to do, because they want the tool to make a prediction. This happens constantly with technology in general. With polling numbers, Nate knows that pundits always read more into numbers than they have any business doing. He said as much on Stewart. Then, he gave them another number.

I'd like to think that if I randomly saved a baby who had fallen down a well and was called to sit on the talk show circuit for it, I'd also use that pulpit to criticize the pundits for the ways they make data say things it's incapable of saying. If I ever crash land an airplane in the Hudson River, I'm using my 15 minutes to go all Jon Stewart against Tucker Carlson on Crossfire, dammit. I don't hold against Nate the fact that he used the pulpit for a good purpose, even if it wasn't the point of his being in the pulpit, per se.

I don't hold it against him. I gave him credit for articulating the critique several times on this board. I appreciate that he made it. You're acting as if Nate intended no connection between the critique and his tool-- as if the former was just a non-sequitur, as in your examples (each of which would make for some damn fine TV).
I also disagree that he gave them "more data in order to do just that." It's like blaming Oppenheimer for Nagasaki.

But he did-- Nate's numbers specifically became fodder for more lazy horserace journalism, another excuse to talk about polls rather than issues. It happened here, and it happened in the MSM.

You claimed to be describing the world as it is--

Nitpick of limited usefulness: I claim to describe the world as it presents, not as it is.

Well, whatever the case: you're feeding forward lazy assumptions about the relationship between media audiences and media producers. It may look like producers are giving audiences what they want. But they're not.

that news media are giving audiences crap because that's what the audiences want. From that perspective, it doesn't matter what anyone within that structure does, because they'll always be dragged down by the stupid wants of those stupid audiences. What this has to do with Nate: I get the sense that Nate sees himself engaged in a bigger and more important project than he was with the baseball stuff. The stakes are certainly higher. So he seems to want to push the level of discourse up a notch, not just invent better tools. But that might be too much projecting on my part-- I don't read his work as regularly as a lot of people here do. I'll repeat that Silver's popularity isn't just as a result of his ability to produce good data-- being a good writer/communicator, and knowing how to build a brand around his data have helped a good deal. I know Nate used to do forensics stuff, so he's obviously trained in argumentation, and that comes out in his writing.

I think you are correct in that 1) the audiences get crap because they want crap and 2) the producers provide crap because that's what sells, and 3) Nate wants to be above it and 4) thinks he can help fix it with smarter data.

I wasn't making point #1 or #2-- those were yours, and I disagreed. I don't think audiences want 'crap': I think they're presented with a range of halfway-acceptable options and choose the least bad from among them. Then, when confronted with the abominable state of their profession, media producers blame the audiences for wanting crap, so as to defer responsibility from themselves. Hannity and Matthews compete to see who can out insufferable-douchenozzle each other on a nightly basis? Not Hannity's fault, or Mathews'-- they're just giving the idiot audience what the idiot audience wants. Your explanation doesn't identify the problem, it excuses it.

This isn't to say they want C-SPAN or PBS, either. But there are many points in between. The current model, for media production in general, is "fling #### against wall, when #### sticks, clone it until audiences vomit from having the same #### shoved down their throats." That's only 'giving audiences what they want' if you reduce audience wants to a parody of the concept.
This indicates to me that Nate is a starry-eyed fool who will eventually be broken on the rocks of reality.

That may well be; I think that will involve a slow assimilation into the punditry he condemns. This may involve some sort of ritual induction where O'Rielly forces him to recant he previous criticism while eating a goat heart, with Hannity pissing on Colmes, and Maddow going cat-o-nine-tails on Matthews in the background.
   7128. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 12, 2012 at 08:50 AM (#4300451)
This is what occurred to me, too. Anyone who wrote after the invention of copiers and before word processors remembers splicing in scissored replacements for mistyped words and awkward sentences on fragments of paper using magic tape and white out, then stopping at the copying store on the way to class to make a smooth copy of the finished paper. "#### it" isn't only tempting, but by page twelve becomes the default position.

Another not-so-great feature of that era was that for really long papers the default position was to take your finished product to a typing service (usually staffed by grad student wives and moonlighting secretaries) at 35 cents a page. If you didn't do this, what got handed into the prof would be half filled with whiteout and orange remnants of one of those coarse typewriter erasers that took half the page with it when it erased something.

------------------------------------------

everybody knows how to type now. Everybody.

Everybody knew how to type back then, too, since it was taught as part of the 9th grade curriculum. The difference today is that it's a thousand times easier to edit your prose and correct your mistakes. See above. If it took as long to do this in 2012 as it did it 1962, either this forum wouldn't exist or it would appear to be populated by nothing but 14 year olds.

------------------------------------------

I only half qualify, since I've rooted for Carolina since I was 12.

Did your roommate know, and if so, why didn't he smother you in your sleep?


My roommates thought that basketball was a capitalist plot and paid my rooting interest no mind.
   7129. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 12, 2012 at 09:23 AM (#4300455)
Regarding the FBI investigation it seems OK to not tell the President during the early stages of the investigation. There are thousands of things (inclduing many investigations) the President could get told and since there is only so much time not everything gets through.

At what point should he have found out is a better question. Whatever the answer I have no expectation of ever finding out (well near term anyway). I fully expect the GOP to go full bore "Treason" on it (no matter what) and the Democrats to close ranks and the whole thing to become completely political.
   7130. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 09:39 AM (#4300460)
To whomever finds David Petraeus' affair an affront to decency or a dereliction of duty, I'd suggest you google "Kay Summersby."
   7131. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4300461)
And Missouri was not part of the Confederacy.


Missouri was admitted to the Confederacy on November 28, 1861.

Kentucky was not part of the Confederacy but is clearly very Southern in its identity.


Kentucky was admitted to the Confederacy on December 10, 1861.



Indian Territory had tribes that held slaves and many tribes allied themselves with the rebs.


Correct, and Confederate forces occupied US depots in Indian Territory from the beginning of the war and negotiated alliances with the tribes living there. Representatives of the Five Civilized Tribes were seated in the Confederate Congress. All indications that they considered what was later known as Oklahoma to be part of Confederate territory.
   7132. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 12, 2012 at 10:03 AM (#4300470)
SdeB, Missouri and Kentucky had partisan representatives in the CSA legistlature but officially belonged to the Union.
   7133. bunyon Posted: November 12, 2012 at 10:05 AM (#4300471)
Bill James said he thought of Mickey Mantle as Southern and I think that feels right to me. Johnny Bench on the other hand, I would never think of as a Southerner even though he spent his career just over the river. Not just because he's Cherokee--they're Southerners too! But nothing about him seems Southern to me. Your mileage may vary. I don't know how to class Oklahoma.

Mom's family is from eastern OK. My grandmother and her relatives are indistinguishable from the folks in NC I've met around the same age. Going to eastern OK from western OK "felt" like going to the south. I don't think I'd put OK in the south, but once you get over to the hills, the only distinction is the age of the state and its history as Indian Territory. Western OK, on the other hand, feels like the southwest - Texas panhandle. I-35, down the middle of the state is a pretty fair dividing line. Geography changes a fair amount and politics, culture and life-style changes as well.

Johnny Bench grew up 20 miles from my hometown, about an hour west southwest of OKC. In no way would I call him a southerner. A guy growing up in the 40s in eastern OK would be a southerner in all but name.

Politically, OK is about as red as you can get today. I believe they're the only state that did not have a single county that went for Obama and, if my facebook page is any judge, secession is not a verboten topic (not saying they WILL secede - just that, if you could do a spur of the moment vote, the morning after the election, it would do very well.). The South wishes they were as Republican as Oklahoma.
   7134. Howie Menckel Posted: November 12, 2012 at 10:07 AM (#4300472)

"The one I remember is: Look to the person at your left. Look to the person at your right. In 4 yours, 1 of you won't be here." "

Version I received was:
"Look to the person at your left. Look to the person at your right. One of you will FAIL this course."

This was Calculus, my first semester in college - and I was a Communications major!

To that would-be engineer who failed because I staggered to a C: blame the dopey guidance counselor who had me sign up for Calculus....
   7135. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4300483)
Yskjfhsk lksdhfsyur ksldfl. LAKJFHK?


Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!
   7136. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 10:41 AM (#4300489)

To whom it may concern regarding the United States federal elections of 2014, 2016 and beyond:

Allow me to introduce myself to you, the existing (or aspiring!) strategist for the Republican Party. My name is Eric Arnold Garland and I am a White Man. Boy, am I ever – you need sunglasses just to look at my photo!

If I read the news correctly, I fit a profile that is of extreme importance to the GOP, as I embody the archetype that fits your narrative of Real Americans. Just how much should my profile interest you? Are you sitting down?

My family lineage goes back to the MAYFLOWER, BOAT ONE!!! (Garland family of New England-> John Adams -> Howard Alden -> Plymouth colony ->KINGS OF MUTHAF***IN’ ENGLAND)
I am a heterosexual, married to the super Caucasian mother of my two beautiful children who are, inexplicably, EVEN WHITER THAN I AM.
I am college educated (Master’s degree!) and affluent.
I am a job creator and small businessman.
We pay a lot of taxes! Every year!
I grew up in a rural area and despise laziness!
Having started my own business, I have complained at length about the insanity of federal, state and local bureaucracy – and its deleterious impact on the innovative small businessman.
I currently live in the suburbs in a historically Red state.

HOLY WHITE PEOPLE, BATMAN!!! Wow, you’re thinking – this is not some Mexirican in the Sun Belt we need to attract via harsh anti-Castro policies or appeals to “valores de familia” - this is the BREAD AND BUTTER OF THE GRAND OLD PARTY, a Mayflower-descended small business owner, burdened by taxation, looking out for his beautiful White family in the suburbs of a city (St Louis) surrounded by racial tension and urban blight!

How can I put this gently? My wife and I are not sensitive to your messaging, nor did we vote for the candidates you proposed for us this past Tuesday.


Letter to a future Republican strategist regarding white people ...
   7137. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 12, 2012 at 10:41 AM (#4300490)
Yskjfhsk lksdhfsyur ksldfl. LAKJFHK?



Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!

What a crock. We've known for at least 15 years that it's NOT crackers to slip a rozzer the dropsy in snide. Jesus, are you trying to start World War III?
   7138. GregD Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4300499)
SdeB, Missouri and Kentucky had partisan representatives in the CSA legistlature but officially belonged to the Union.
Yes. The Missou case is interesting because you had a runaway government, but the basic fact remained that no government could keep hold of Missouri and secede. The secessionist governor "ruled" from Arkansas and Texas. Kentucky is even weaker; Kentucky's legislature rejected secession. Calling them parts of the Confederacy is like calling Texas an independent nation because some guy on the Internet said so. It was a realistic hope that never came to be, and the claim of admission was a fantasy. More Kentuckians and Missourians fought for the United States than for the Confederacy.
   7139. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4300500)

As of Saturday November 10, 2012, 15 States have petitioned the Obama Administration for withdrawal from the United States of America in order to create its own government.

States following this action include: Louisiana, Texas, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Mississippi, Kentucky, North Carolina, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, New Jersey, Colorado, Oregon and New York. These States have requested that the Obama Administration grant a peaceful withdrawal from the United States.

These citizen generated petitions were filed just days after the 2012 presidential election.

Louisiana was the first State to file a petition a day after the election by a Michael E. from Slidell, Louisiana. Texas was the next State to follow by a Micah H. from Arlington, Texas.

The government allows one month from the day the petition is submitted to obtain 25,000 signatures in order for the Obama administration to consider the request.


Link.
   7140. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4300505)
Regarding the FBI investigation it seems OK to not tell the President during the early stages of the investigation. There are thousands of things (inclduing many investigations) the President could get told and since there is only so much time not everything gets through.


Perhaps Obama could have canceled his appearance on Bill Simmons's podcast to receive the news about an investigation involving the CIA director instead of talking college hoops.
   7141. Tripon Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4300509)
CoB, the people who signed those petitions across every state don't even equal up to 25,000.
   7142. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:42 AM (#4300511)
Perhaps Obama could have


been the first president in foreever to not do political/PR events? Be the first robotic President to work 24x7?

Does everything go to the President? That way you can never be wrong about what should cross his desk.

   7143. The Good Face Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:42 AM (#4300512)
I love it when liberals act shocked, shocked to learn that the cost of affirmative action is that peoples' accomplishments may be unfairly denigrated. As if opponents of AA didn't cite this as a specific problem with the policies, only to be handwaved away by liberals.


It's easy. Affirmative Action is an essential tool necessary to help the victims of racism. Also, it's racist to ever suggest that Affirmative Action helped anybody.
   7144. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4300515)
been the first president in foreever to not do political/PR events?


? You said there was only so much time, etc etc. That was not true. There was plenty of time.
   7145. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4300516)
Also, it's racist to ever suggest that Affirmative Action helped anybody.


No, but it is questionable to suggest anyone ever possibly helped by AA is automatically unqualified and job X should have gone to someone who could never have been helped (like a white male, just for example).
   7146. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4300518)
Perhaps Obama could have canceled his appearance on Bill Simmons's podcast to receive the news about an investigation involving the CIA director instead of talking college hoops


Ray, you're really close to jumping the shark on this. Think through the question for a moment.

Obama: Does not know about the FBI investigation.

FBI: Is not notifying Obama about the investigation.

Ray: Obama should have cancelled his PR thing on Bill Simmons' show to demand information about an investigation he hadn't been told about!

You know this is irrational.
   7147. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4300519)
regarding the earlier discussion on fracking. just sharing. not claiming any position previously stated is right or wrong. this is information. just thought it was interesting.

LONDON (CNNMoney) -- The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world's biggest oil producer before 2020, and will be energy independent 10 years later, according to a new forecast by the International Energy Agency.

The recent resurgence in oil and gas production, and efforts to make the transport sector more efficient, are radically reshaping the nation's energy market, reported Paris-based IEA in its World Energy Outlook.

North America would become a net exporter of oil around 2030, the global organization said Monday.

"The United States, which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes all but self sufficient in net terms -- a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries," the IEA stated.

The U.S. is experiencing an oil boom, in large part thanks to high world prices and new technologies, including hydraulic fracking, that have made the extraction of oil and gas from shale rock commercially viable.

From 2008 to 2011, U.S. crude oil production jumped 14%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Natural gas production is up by about 10% over the same period.

   7148. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4300521)
There was plenty of time.


You are being silly. I said there was not time for everything. Yes there was time for this one event, if only someone had used their cyrstal ball correctly.

The President is human and needs down time. The President is a politician and does political things. It is a big country. Everything will not cross the Presidents desk. This does not shock 98% of the thinking populace.

EDIT: And what Sam said.
   7149. Tripon Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4300524)
Why is it important for the President to know who ###### who? Because that's what we're arguing here in regards to Petrasus.
   7150. GregD Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4300525)
On Missou/Kentucky and the Confederacy, Missou's governor in a sense is not a story of foolishness but of a fossil. He was legally elected and tried with others to get the state to secede but then was chased from the state by a St Louis-based militia. So he represented a government he could not control in a state where he could not live. It's like Kerensky in the City College cafeteria.

But Kentucky is straight farce. The elected body never seceded; the governor never declared secession. The Confederates declared a rump government of pretenders that had to meet in Bowling Green and then "met" in Tennessee, never having finished a constitution. When the Confeds take Frankfort, they stage an inaugural but they hold the city so briefly that the "government" of Kentucky flees before the inaugural ball is finished. It is purest comedy.
   7151. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4300526)
Also, it's racist to ever suggest that Affirmative Action helped anybody.


No, but it is questionable to suggest anyone ever possibly helped by AA is automatically unqualified and job X should have gone to someone who could never have been helped (like a white male, just for example).

Depending on what sort of standards you want to use, "unqualified" people have been getting admitted to schools and getting hired for jobs in this country ever since it began. The overwhelming majority of beneficiaries of this have been white males. Does any critic of Affirmative Action seriously want to dispute this? Does anyone want to argue that Sonia Sotomayor was less qualified for Princeton than G.W. Bush was for Yale?
   7152. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4300527)
My point is: If it didn't cross Obama's desk - and let's stipulate to that since at the moment that is apparently the story - why didn't it? "There wasn't enough time" is not a valid reason. This was an investigation involving the head of the CIA and the fact that his mistress had classified documents. That was not worthy of Obama's attention?

It seems that either his operatives shielded him from it deliberately or he wasn't running this ship in a sensible fashion.
   7153. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4300529)
Why is it important for the President to know who ###### who? Because that's what we're arguing here in regards to Petrasus.


No, it isn't. Again, some weeks ago they learned that Broadwell had classified documents on her computer.
   7154. The Good Face Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4300530)
No, but it is questionable to suggest anyone ever possibly helped by AA is automatically unqualified and job X should have gone to someone who could never have been helped (like a white male, just for example).


'zop didn't say that Sotomayor was automatically unqualified; he said she was an AA hire. Almost immediately, somebody posted to say that was racist. If you think AA is necessary to fight racism, how can it be racist to point out that it's working as intended?
   7155. Tripon Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4300531)
Then Ray, it depends on how sensitive the documents are. There's different levels of classifications for classified documents. I doubt she had the codes for the nukes, or something of that nature. We don't even know what's being classified, so just saying classified information and then claiming that Obama must know seems like a disconnect to me.
   7156. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:02 PM (#4300532)

Yes. The Missou case is interesting because you had a runaway government, but the basic fact remained that no government could keep hold of Missouri and secede. The secessionist governor "ruled" from Arkansas and Texas. Kentucky is even weaker; Kentucky's legislature rejected secession. Calling them parts of the Confederacy is like calling Texas an independent nation because some guy on the Internet said so. It was a realistic hope that never came to be, and the claim of admission was a fantasy. More Kentuckians and Missourians fought for the United States than for the Confederacy.


All I ever said is that they were officially recognized as parts of the CSA by the Confederate government, and that remains as true now as when I said it yesterday. ;-) I think people are responding to something that was never written.
   7157. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4300535)
My point is: If it didn't cross Obama's desk - and let's stipulate to that since at the moment that is apparently the story - why didn't it? "There wasn't enough time" is not a valid reason. This was an investigation involving the head of the CIA and the fact that his mistress had classified documents. That was not worthy of Obama's attention?


I am not prepared to stipulate that it was, no. I know you have already decided it had to be a POTUS level briefing, but apparently the FBI didn't agree with you.

It seems that either his operatives shielded him from it deliberately or he wasn't running this ship in a sensible fashion.


This is just you being an Obama hating partisan. Nothing more, nothing less. You're damning the man, sans even the most trivial of evidence, of either incompetence or malfaescence, based on nothing more than the vague gut feeling you have that the FBI should have done something they didn't do. This is just silly.
   7158. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4300537)
Tripon: The CIA director's mistress ends up with classified documents on her computer, and we're now going to split hairs over what level of classification they were? My point is that surely by that point a serious issue has been raised. Did she obtain these documents from the general? What other documents has she had access to? Etc.

Perhaps it turns out that everything is ay-ok - Petraeus had nothing to do with giving her documents - but that is a conclusion that comes as a result of the investigation, not beforehand. Beforehand it raises a serious issue.

   7159. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4300541)
I am not prepared to stipulate that it was, no. I know you have already decided it had to be a POTUS level briefing, but apparently the FBI didn't agree with you.


Well, Feinstein said yesterday that she and her committee should have been informed. Do you disagree?
   7160. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4300545)
This is just you being an Obama hating partisan. Nothing more, nothing less. You're damning the man, sans even the most trivial of evidence, of either incompetence or malfaescence, based on nothing more than the vague gut feeling you have that the FBI should have done something they didn't do. This is just silly.


So apparently now "Mr. President, Sir, we are investigating a breach of security involving the CIA director's mistress" are words that shouldn't be expected to be uttered to the president.

You're going with that? Really?
   7161. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:12 PM (#4300548)
'zop didn't say that Sotomayor was automatically unqualified; he said she was an AA hire. Almost immediately, somebody posted to say that was racist. If you think it's necessary to fight racism, how can it be racist to point out that it's working as intended?

It's not racist to note that she was an AA hire, if in fact she was**.

But it's kind of a giveaway when "AA" is pointed out continually about minority (or female) AA hires, without simultaneously acknowledging the historic fact that AA has benefited far more white males than all of the minorities and women put together. It's also telling that virtually none of the people kvetching about "AA" today (or their ideological ancestors) ever lifted a finger to dismantle the original (and far deadlier) version of AA when it ruled virtually every institution in the country.

**And given her summa cum laude graduation, it's hard to imagine that AA should have been necessary to admit her to Princeton.
   7162. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4300551)
   7163. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4300554)
Well, Feinstein said yesterday that she and her committee should have been informed. Do you disagree?


Feinstein sits on the Senate committee with oversight on intelligence. I'm sure she thinks she should have been notified.

So apparently now "Mr. President, Sir, we are investigating a breach of security involving the CIA director's mistress" are words that shouldn't be expected to be uttered to the president.


Not necessarily, no. Of course, I have no reason to think they shouldn't be uttered, nor do I think they necessarily should have been uttered (sooner than they actually were.)

Your position is that they weren't uttered soon enough to your liking. I'm going to be kind and stipulate that.

Now you move from that position to the conclusion that the failure to notify the POTUS quickly enough (stipulated for argument's sake) indicates either 1) incompetence by the POTUS or 2) coverup on his behalf for political gain.

I propose a third option: the FBI moved very slowly because it was David ####### Peatreus and no on in the FBI command wanted to be the guy that jumped the gun on that landmine too soon.

I suggest that my option has the benefit of being boring, tedious and bureaucratic, like the FBI in general, although I do admit that it loses the "OBAMA'S A MONSTER" angle you seem to be searching for so desperately.
   7164. Mefisto Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4300557)
From the WSJ today:

"U.S. officials briefed on the matter said the probe was closely held among officials at the FBI and Justice under a long-standing policy not to divulge information on continuing criminal investigations.

The disclosure policy was reinforced in a 2007 memorandum by Michael Mukasey, who was then attorney general under President George W. Bush. The memorandum, issued in the wake of the scandal over the firings of U.S. attorneys, sought to remind department employees that contacts with the White House and Congress about pending criminal matters were off limits."

However, Eric Cantor knew:

"Despite efforts at FBI and the Justice Department to keep the investigation closely held, word of it leaked to a small number of lawmakers. Rep. David Reichert (R., Wash.) received a tip from an FBI employee that there was a national-security issue related to Mr. Petraeus, according to an aide. He forwarded the information to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R., Va.), who alerted the FBI in October."

So I guess we should be asking why Cantor didn't "do anything".

   7165. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4300558)
The one I remember is: Look to the person at your left. Look to the person at your right. In 4 yours, 1 of you won't be here." And that was not inaccurate.


in Law School, our (now deceased) Dean said: Look around, some of you will be sleeping with each other, perhaps this weekend, some of you may get married...and later divorced.'
   7166. The Good Face Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4300559)
But it's kind of a giveaway when "AA" is pointed out continually about minority (or female) AA hires, without simultaneously acknowledging the historic fact that AA has benefited far more white males than all of the minorities and women put together. It's also telling that virtually none of the people kvetching about "AA" today (or their ideological ancestors) ever lifted a finger to dismantle the original (and far deadlier) version of AA when it ruled virtually every institution in the country.


Females and minorities are the people AA is supposed to benefit, who the heck else would be pointed out?

The sort of "AA" you're railing about, while not codified, is still in existence today. We haven't done anything to get rid of it, nor can we, since wealthy, connected people of all races have always and will always look out for their own; modern AA doesn't affect those folks one bit. All we've done is mandate winners and losers via policy in a zero sum game and then tell the losers that they're racist when they point out the game is rigged against them.

   7167. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:41 PM (#4300563)
#7165

Oh, sure. That's something that a liberal-leaning Obama-loving rag like the Wall Street Journal WOULD report.
Even if it was true, then Obama's best buddy Eric Cantor would definitely have covered up for him.

/s
   7168. Lassus Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4300565)
All we've done is mandate winners and losers via policy in a zero sum game and then tell the losers that they're racist when they point out the game is rigged against them.

To be fair, in this thread they are more being called stupid for considering themselves a.) rigged against and b.) the losers.
   7169. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4300566)
then tell the losers that they're racist when they point out the game is rigged against them.


Against who is the game rigged?


The conservative view of AA:
So long as AA exists, all AA folks that fail at all, only failed because of AA (Because they did not belong there in the first place). If they succeed, they succeeded only because of AA. All non-AA folks succeed only because of their superiority and fail only because of AA.

If AA were to go away then we could go back to the past when the success and failure of white men was due to pure merit! Non-white men, sure they get merit too, we promise and this time we really mean it. Trust us.
   7170. Morty Causa Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4300567)
Depending on what sort of standards you want to use, "unqualified" people have been getting admitted to schools and getting hired for jobs in this country ever since it began.


But not every standard implicates a constitutional precept.
   7171. Lassus Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4300568)
I have to wonder how many people who consider themselves losing a rigged zero-sum game have ever played in a golf league with handicaps.

I guess more accurately, they consider themselves - and everyone else - scratch golfers. Until they start getting the tar kicked out of them every week.
   7172. Morty Causa Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4300571)
To whomever finds David Petraeus' affair an affront to decency or a dereliction of duty, I'd suggest you google "Kay Summersby."


Summersby is not believed by most scholars. But the gossip lives and is perpetuated--it reminds me of the Cary Grant was gay idea. It's fed and nourished by the wishful thinking of a very small set of interested types not into rigorous thinking.
   7173. The Good Face Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4300574)
All we've done is mandate winners and losers via policy in a zero sum game and then tell the losers that they're racist when they point out the game is rigged against them.

To be fair, in this thread they are more being called stupid for considering themselves a.) rigged against and b.) the losers.


Lassus, some working class white guy who can't get a job as a firefighter even though his test scores are much, much better than those of minority applicants who do wind up getting the jobs is participating in a rigged game and is a loser of that game. You not caring about his problem doesn't make that fact wrong or that guy stupid.

The conservative view of AA:
So long as AA exists, all AA folks that fail at all, only failed because of AA (Because they did not belong there in the first place). If they succeed, they succeeded only because of AA. All non-AA folks succeed only because of their superiority and fail only because of AA.

If AA were to go away then we could go back to the past when the success and failure of white men was due to pure merit! Non-white men, sure they get merit too, we promise and this time we really mean it. Trust us.


So we're back to AA being absolutely necessarily while simultaneously it's apparently incredibly racist to believe that AA works. You guys can't have it both ways here.

   7174. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4300575)
So we're back to AA being absolutely necessarily while simultaneously it's apparently incredibly racist to believe that AA works. You guys can't have it both ways here.


That's the big point to note, yes.
   7175. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4300577)
The sort of "AA" you're railing about, while not codified, is still in existence today. We haven't done anything to get rid of it, nor can we, since wealthy, connected people of all races have always and will always look out for their own;

From a human nature POV, that's indisputable. From an historical POV, that particular part of human nature in action has overwhelmingly favored white males.

modern AA doesn't affect those folks one bit. All we've done is mandate winners and losers via policy in a zero sum game

As if the original AA was anything other than that.

and then tell the losers that they're racist when they point out the game is rigged against them.

I'm not calling everyone who protests AA a racist, even though the political pedigree of some of the loudest protesters might well point to that conclusion.** I'm just pointing out that AA wasn't created in a vacuum.

**AFAIC people (and organizations) who took a stand against the original (and far more deadly) version of AA have a lot more standing to talk about the current version of AA than those who ignored the original problem, or kept harping about "states' rights" or "freedom of association" whenever the issue was raised. And people whose "solution" to the problem consists of just admitting the students with the highest SAT scores have nothing serious to contribute to the conversation.

   7176. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4300579)
Lassus, some working class white guy who can't get a job as a firefighter even though his test scores are much, much better than those of minority applicants who do wind up getting the jobs is participating in a rigged game and is a loser of that game.

The court that threw out that case found that there was no correlation between those test scores and a firefighter's ability to fight fires. It's much like college admissions, in the sense that above a certain point, a test score says little about one's ability to succeed.
   7177. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4300580)
So I guess we should be asking why Cantor didn't "do anything".


I'm sure Eric Cantor was probably just protecting the President from any bad political press during the election.
   7178. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4300584)
Despite efforts at FBI and the Justice Department to keep the investigation closely held, word of it leaked to a small number of lawmakers. Rep. David Reichert (R., Wash.) received a tip from an FBI employee that there was a national-security issue related to Mr. Petraeus, according to an aide. He forwarded the information to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R., Va.), who alerted the FBI in October."


So I guess we should be asking why Cantor didn't "do anything".

Maybe because he's not as stupid as some of the people around here. For one thing, the idea that a rogue employee within the FBI was passing information to a prominent opposition politician might not exactly put that politician in the best of lights if he were to have made that information public during an election campaign.
   7179. Tripon Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4300585)
Brian Stelter of The New York Times reports that MSNBC is finally starting to catch up to Fox News in the rating game, mainly by becoming the left-wing answer to Fox's conservative cheerleaders. Stelter says MSNBC, which normally trails Fox News in overall ratings, managed to best their cable rival in the key 25-54 year-old demographic on three straight nights after last week's election. MSNBC still trails behind Fox and CNN in the number of overall viewers, but has closed the gap considerably in the recent years, by accepting their role as "the Anti-Fox News." The re-election of Barack Obama will only help MSNBC keep the ball rolling, as hosts like Rachel Maddow and Chris Matthews have become unapologetic supporters of "Obama's America" and stand to benefit from four more years of his liberal politics.


   7180. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:13 PM (#4300587)
Lassus, some working class white guy who can't get a job as a firefighter even though his test scores are much, much better than those of minority applicants who do wind up getting the jobs is participating in a rigged game and is a loser of that game.


Actually, the guy whose test scores are worse because he had the misfortune of going to terrible schools in a district with no money, even though he himself is on a personal level just as smart and capable as the guy with higher scores, is the one playing the rigged game. AA is an attempt to mitigate that inherent inequity.
   7181. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4300589)
Actually, the guy whose test scores are worse because he had the misfortune of going to terrible schools in a district with no money,


It's not a money issue despite what Robinred says, as has been told to liberals repeatedly.
   7182. Poulanc Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:17 PM (#4300590)
It's not a money issue despite what Robinred says, as has been told to liberals repeatedly.


Then why are private schools so expensive?
   7183. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4300592)
Random theory #1: The Creation of a True Third Party In Modern American Politics

As the shock waves of Obama's re-election reverberate through the conservo-sphere, the Tea Party (i.e. the southern base, i.e. the Reagan Democrats, i.e. the Dixiecrats) will respond by demanding even more ideological purity. GOP insiders and the DC party establishment will pull the alternate way, reading the demographics of 2012 as a sign the party should align to the center instead. This will create a break in the fundamental structure of the GOP as we have known it since Nixon. The Dixiecrats will look to spin off as "true conservative party."

Rather than going through the hard work of establishing themselves as an actual political party, the "Tea Party" will opt to take over an existing third party; the Libertarians. (This will piss off a lot of NEC type libertarians, but it will work very well with the guns & God libertarians of the south and west.) The new Libertarian Party, driven by the neoconfederates of the Dixiecrat rump, will jettison any vestige of Gary Johnson or Ron Paul's foreign policy and go all in on neoconservative FP fused to fundamentalist beliefs of Greater Israel, etc.

The GOP will move back to the center, siphoning off all of the old Rockefeller Republicans that had aligned around the DLC consensus under Clinton and Obama. They will adopt the policy of traditional liberal interventionism (as opposed to aggressive neoconservative FP policies) and fiscal austerity/restraint.

The Dems will move slightly left to adopt more of the Green Party platform (though not all of it). They may even adopt more of the Johnson/Paul FP goals.
   7184. Tripon Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4300593)
NEW YORK (AP) — The puppeteer who performs as Elmo on "Sesame Street" is taking a leave of absence from the popular kids' show in the wake of allegations that he had a relationship with a 16-year-old boy.


Gives a whole new meaning to Tickle Me Elmo!
   7185. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:21 PM (#4300594)
Then why are private schools so expensive?


Signalling and sorting. Signals status and sorts out the underclasses so they won't confuse themselves with their betters.
   7186. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4300597)
The re-election of Barack Obama will only help MSNBC keep the ball rolling, as hosts like Rachel Maddow and Chris Matthews have become unapologetic supporters of "Obama's America" and stand to benefit from four more years of his liberal politics.


Lumping Maddow in with Matthews or any of the big names at Fox is just stupid. Maddow is a liberal; she is also a fantastically thorough journalist. She's as far above Matthews in MSNBC as Shep Smith is above Hannity on Fox.
   7187. Lassus Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:24 PM (#4300599)
while simultaneously it's apparently incredibly racist to believe that AA works. You guys can't have it both ways here.

I'm assuming this is an interpretation of what someone said instead of what someone actually said, so, hard to really have any counter to something that you made up.


It's not a money issue despite what Robinred says, as has been told to liberals repeatedly.

Remind me what the issue actually was as opposed to money?
   7188. OCF Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4300600)
Also, a bit of unsolicited advice to those who have children taking calculus in their junior year; if they want to take more math in the senior year, encourage them to take things like discrete math/combinatorics or probability or statistics over differential equations/multivariable calculus. Especially undergraduate multivariable calculus, which is an absolute mess of a course designed to badly teach a few tools necessary for engineering courses; if you children want to go that route, they'll have time to do it in college. (If they are taking Calculus AB, then taking Calculus BC is fine. Also, the key word is encourage; your child probably has a better feel for their mathematical interests than you do.)

A variation on this advice: take a look at the world of mathematical competitions. At the high school level, competitions tend to have a "no calculus" rule, so there's plenty of counting and combinatorics and number theory and probability. (And geometry.) And a whole change in mindset from "This exercise will test your comprehension of the exact section we just covered" to "Here's a problem - you identify what kind of problem it is and what tools you want to bring to bear." Those who have done anything at all in those competitions do seem to be far better equipped to think about mathematical and quantitative problems than many of those who haven't.

There are some downsides. The competitions are, well, competitive. And the "big guns" got their start back in middle school - 11th grade is a late start. And the competitions emphasize speed, which isn't all that important in the "real world". And the competitive world tends to be male-dominated, and has an ethnic mix that doesn't look like the average of America. But if your child has a strong enough ego to deal with all of that, there's a lot to learn. And a lot of on-line resources that weren't there a decade ago.

Old competition questions can be found, and there's no doubt that those questions are harder and more sophisticated now than they were 20 or 30 years ago. Most of that comes from the fact that training and on-line resources are now available, so the question-writers have to keep upping the ante.
   7189. Gonfalon B. Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4300601)
Re: #7179--
Fox News viewership was probably unusually depressed on November 7-9, as was their audience. In any event, for an advocacy "news" channel, you want to be on the side that's losing; Fox News' ratings went up when Obama was first elected. Maddow and Matthews are personally happier with the way things turned out, but the MSNBC sales department had reason to root for President Romney.

In other media fun, Slate points out that you can go to Mitt Romney's Facebook page, note the number of "likes" under his name, wait a few seconds and then refresh the page. The number will have gone down. Romney's Facebook friends are dumping him in real time.
   7190. Mefisto Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4300602)
Summersby is not believed by most scholars
.

That's a serious overstatement. While some dispute it, it's probably the majority view that there was a sexual relationship (nobody doubts many other aspects of it). Jean Edward Smith has a good discussion of the issue in his recent Ike biography.
   7191. formerly dp Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:28 PM (#4300603)
Lumping Maddow in with Matthews or any of the big names at Fox is just stupid. Maddow is a liberal; she is also a fantastically thorough journalist. She's as far above Matthews in MSNBC as Shep Smith is above Hannity on Fox.

Agree. Matthews plays the 'who can shout the loudest' game, like Hannity. Maddow's fairly well-regarded as a journalist, and does as good a job as she can (given the format) getting serious stories to air on her show.*

*I don't have MSNBC anymore and haven't watched her regularly in a while, so don't know if her quality has sagged at all.
   7192. Tripon Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:28 PM (#4300604)

In other media fun, Slate points out that you can go to Mitt Romney's Facebook page, note the number of "likes" under his name, wait a few seconds and then refresh the page. The number will have gone down. Romney's Facebook friends are dumping him in real time.


Or they're bots being found by facebook and being deleted. Paying for facebook likes with money, its a thing.
   7193. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:28 PM (#4300605)
MSNBC, which normally trails Fox News in overall ratings, managed to best their cable rival in the key 25-54 year-old demographic on three straight nights after last week's election.

Isn't Fox the old people's network?
   7194. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4300607)
7183:

This is totally plausible, but it wouldn't last very long. Our election system (single member district plurality voting and first past the poll) all but ensure we have a two party system until we get ourselves some instant runoff at minimum.

What I wonder sometimes is why, even though we're bound to two parties, there aren't more regional crackups. Why hasn't the South hasn't become a straight contest between the Tea Party and the GOP, or why isn't Oregon a contest of Dems vs Greens (though I know Greens are prominent out there)? The national two parties are stronger than I would have guessed just looking at the contours of the U.S. demographically.
   7195. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4300609)
Fox News viewership was probably unusually depressed on November 7-9, as was their audience.


Every hippie liberal I know was watching FOX on November 7-9.
   7196. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4300610)
So we're back to AA being absolutely necessarily while simultaneously it's apparently incredibly racist to believe that AA works. You guys can't have it both ways here.


So were exactly did I call anyone who believed AA "worked"* racist?

* Worked is in scare quotes because a big part of the disconnect is what AA worked means. In the conservative point of view (what can be gathered from talking points) it working means those who take advantage of AA are promoted above what they deserve, while deserving white male candidates are left behind. Of course this is not at all what Liberals mean by worked. I can't speak for those that may be calling you racist, but I suspect it might start at your definition of worked.
   7197. Tripon Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4300612)
Why hasn't the South hasn't become a straight contest between the Tea Party and the GOP, or why isn't Oregon a contest of Dems vs Greens (though I know Greens are prominent out there)? The national two parties are stronger than I would have guessed just looking at the contours of the U.S. demographically.


Most states still use a straight primary system, and not a jungle primary system where they send the top two regardless of party affiliation. So all the fights just happen in the primary, and the two big parties can still promise money and influence for the general election and when you're in congress. There's no reason for a 3rd party to exist when the two main parties have traditionally been flexible enough to welcome multiple wings.
   7198. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4300613)
It's not a money issue despite what Robinred says, as has been told to liberals repeatedly.


If you're wrong, as you are here, it doesn't matter how many times you tell us.
   7199. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4300614)
In other media fun, Slate points out that you can go to Mitt Romney's Facebook page, note the number of "likes" under his name, wait a few seconds and then refresh the page. The number will have gone down. Romney's Facebook friends are dumping him in real time.
How accurate is this? I went to Romney's page, and in about a minute, he lost about 12 likes. I went to Obama's page, and he gained six likes in about 30 seconds. It seems like a lot.
   7200. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4300616)
This is totally plausible, but it wouldn't last very long. Our election system (single member district plurality voting and first past the poll) all but ensure we have a two party system until we get ourselves some instant runoff at minimum.


If the Libertarianocrats focused on House and Senate seats in the South and Midwest they could build a significant third party presence in the Congress.
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