Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
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And?
Would there be any restriction that the government could place on a religious marriage? Age? Species?
None. I can call myself anything I want.
The restriction on civil marital cohabitation contracts (or whatever you want to call it) is easy. We have plenty of established law on who can enter into a contract to fall back on for convenience.
Don't you mean Gay City?
Well, I'm pretty much equally dismissive and stand-offish about people defining themselves as "Liberals" or "Occupy Wall Street" too.
My wife and I were joined in a completely secular ceremony, with a non-religious official, where everyone was more concerned with eating and partying afterwards than with the actual ceremony.
To me what we have is a civil union. Just because the church down the street would consider it a valid marriage because of our gender, doesn't bump our union into first class status.
How is this second class*?
* This is in the hypothetical world where all couples are recognized as civil unions by the state, and the word marriage is not used.
Assuming your talking strictly about religious ceremony, with no contractual rights and obligations, no. The problem occurs when you get into consent. Some weird ass chucrch could marry a 40 year old and a 5 year old, but if that marriage is consummated before the 5 year old reaches the age of consent, then you have problems.
Just checking.
Age?
None.
That one concerns me, do you still have statutory rape on the books that includes married partners?
Yes. You can call yourself married by ceremony, but an underage sexual partner still does not have the contractual ability to enter into a sexual relationship.
I can call myself Emperor of Szymborskiville all I want, but that doesn't give me the power to summon Time-Warner customer service for their beheadings.
Because you are free to say that you are "married" and no one blinks an eye because they know what you mean. If you were to use the proper term and say that you were "civilly unified", no one would know what the hell you re talking about.
Now, you have 2 women who were civilly joined in the identical fashion you were. They are not free to say they are married, because their state doesn't allow for gay marriage. Yes, that's mostly symbolism, but symbols are powerful. The fact that you are free to call yourself married makes your life a bit easier.
Well there's a bit of comfort. Having to rewire your synapses to do the last part was quite stressful.
They're not? Who gave the Word Police so much authority? Was it in the Patriot Act? If I call myself dashing and handsome, am I going to jail?
The correct term is "The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints".
Fixed.
Fist-bump.
Dismiss all you like (of course), but effective action generally happens through those collectives.
EDIT: Coke to formerly dp, because you deserve it for just being you :)
Stop being pedantic. You know what I mean. They are not free to say they are married and and have it not lead to awkward pauses at the best, and outright belligerent arguments at the worst. That might not matter to you. but it obviously matters to millions of others.
Last I saw, it was "LGBT" much more commonly than "GLBT."
bunch of patriarchal bigots in here!
:)
No, I mean Gayville, dammit.
I got the same result.
Seems like you'd have a decent case for an insanity plea.
Fist-bumping is so gay.
But that's an attitude that the law itself won't change. Time will fix it, and is fixing it, but gay couples now are free to say they are married, and gay marriage opponents are free to argue belligerently that they're not, regardless what state they happen to be in at the moment.
Now I vigorously support gay marriage, and hope the process is expedited where gay couples have full and equal access to all the benefits of marriage, including legal ownership of the word. But even when they that happens, the law can't legislate away conversational issues like the one you describe above.
But I'm too insecure in my sexuality for a bro-hug. What's left?
Lynchings all around!
? Why can't they say they're married, even if it's a civil union? "We got married in Florida." "Yay, congrats to you."
Passing around Jill Kelley for sloppy thirds or fourths, apparently.
That's a terrible argument. Do you really think people who are against gay marriage, especially the ones who hold that belief on the basis of outright bigotry, dislike gay marriage simply on the basis of its legal description? Or that people who are for gay marriage aren't going to like gay marriage because of the legal definition of a marriage contract? That's preposterous. The strongest case for gay marriage involves equal protection under the law. Protecting people from awkward pauses and belligerent arguments is among the very weakest. The government has no more business making a bigot respect gay marriage than it has preventing gay marriage.
Please. Few straight people even know which states allow SSM and which states do not. Few straight people care about this issue, beyond saying that they don't support SSM (if they don't). And those who don't support SSM are likely so afraid of being labeled a homophobe that they won't bother putting up any resistance to a same-sex couple in a domestic partnership who calls themselves married. (Yeah, sorry if people are not guaranteed freedom from awkward pauses.)
This issue is over. The opponents of SSM have lost. All that's left to do is for the proponents of SSM to claim the remaining victories, which will take another decade or so, because it takes time to phase this in - it can't be done overnight. So the continual whining from intolerant people about bigotry and lack of tolerance is utterly silly and at this point is done more as an attention grab than anything else. "Look at me! I'm much better than you! You are a bigot!"
All of his pie-in-the-sky utopianism aside, Dan is undoubtedly correct with these sentences.
yeah but all unions would be equally protected under the law and receive all the benefits that the state protects for that contract/union. You can change people's attitudes over a word and the words attached religious connotation by legislation.
Partial cokes to SOSH, Ray, & Dan
What, are you telling me you don't track down proper documentation when you meet people that tell you they're married? You should see the documentation I require when people say they're engaged. And this one time a dude told me he was Catholic, I'd have his blood alcohol taken every Sunday after church to make sure that he has the necessary Christ-blood to be denoted as such.
Right after the DEA. But the DEA goes first.
Cheap bastard, making us share a two-liter bottle rather than shell out for the individual cans. By the time it gets to me, that Coke's going to be less bubbly than Murray Chass.
We had the same conversation at work this morning. Between 4 of us, we realized we haven't collectively sent as many emails in our lives as what Kelley received from one sender.
Welcome to the glorious life of a litigation associate.
Apparently Broadwell and the general thought they had that covered -
From Politico - "Former CIA director David Petraeus and his biographer, Paula Broadwell, discussed their extramarital dalliances using an email technique favored by Al Qaeda, according to a report.
Rather than sending emails back and forth to each other, Petraeus and Broadwell shared an email account where both would write messages and leave them in the “draft” folder, according to The Associated Press. The other person would then log in to the account, read the draft email, delete it and then compose a response, also to be left as a draft note"
I think I got about that much nasty email when I suggested the Giants use Melky Cabrera in the World Series.
That's nice and all, but that isn't what you have, so it's moot.
Who said anything about a 2-liter bottle. It's a can of Tab. Times are tough
I actually had a opposite-sex civil union for several years, granted in NY. I had one job (small pharma company in SSF) where opposite-sex (and same sex) civil unions allowed you health benefit "rights". My next job, at Stanford only allowed this for same-sex civil unions, but by then we had actually gotten Married (after 15 years).
We go married because civil unions were highly non equivalent LEGALLY. Not only in the office place benefits issue, but also we felt we would not likely get the same hospital visitation rights and especially (since we were pregnant at the time) a little worried about child custody if one of us died. (In-laws could theoretically make a custody move).
But Dan is right, philosophically. That and $2.45 gets you a coffee at the airport.
Well, there's reason to demand his resignation right there. That's pretty piss-poor crytopgraphy from a dude that's supposed to be heading the frigging CIA. Makes me wonder if someone can hack into Langley as guest/password.
Coke is defined as Coke. Tab is just a civil cola.
when does the ATF go?
Clearly, affirmative action is allowing unqualified folks to reach positions of authority in the government (or become sucessful biographers?.
I mean... IF THEY HEARD ABOUT the technique someone else was using maybe it wasn't that secure... since you know IT GOT FIGURED OUT.
The director of the CIA doesn't know how to encrypt data?
I appreciate the compliment as I know how much you need in addition to $2.45 to buy anything at an airport.
Actually thinking that her husband had hundreds of thousands and votes in 4 separate states is probably even worse than hitting him with a car.
Well, it's a little too much trouble to prioritize so lets go alphabetical:
1) ATF
2) DEA
3) DHS
4) FBI
5) TSA
Not going to go full Cold Pros. and call for the disbanding of the the FDA and USDA. Doesn't seem suitable to be handled by state, local, or private authorities. Despite it's proven lack of competence (see above), I suppose that foreign intelligence, i.e., CIA is still a federal task.
Eh, Mayor Bloomberg won't let any one person horde too much of the two-liter anyway, so don't worry about it.
Actually this is my concrete example of how overpriced Starbucks is. It's $2 everywhere except the airport where it's $2.45. Every other foodstuff is marked up 100%, not 22%.
Pshaww.... The media, the genera public, and elected officials of both parties long ago determined the Most Holy and Sainted David Patraeus shall not be questioned or criticized.
He could have been with 13 yos Danny Thomas style in the Lincoln bedroom and we'd still get nothing but "Such a tragic end to such an honorable man... yada yada..."
It really makes the original Mission Impossible movie seem less plausible.
"OK, Ving Rhames and Jean Reno, here's the plan. We need to get that NOC List held secure at Langley. The door it is hidden behind has a chair and table in front of it. There's also a lock that only can be released by standing on your tippy-toes. Inside the room, we will be detected if we do not acquire the disk between 4 AM and 2 AM, when the janitorial staff is not windexing the mainframe. Also, unless it is Jeans Friday, make sure you're wearing a tie and no denim. The NOC computer can only be accessed if it is plugged into an electrical outlet and turned on. Break!"
Massachusetts begs to differ!
Oh wait, no it doesn't...
The Daily Beast's essentially just Entertainment Tonight for people who are too fancy and sophisticated to watch Entertainment Tonight.
Honestly, neither Broadwell nor Kelley is all that attractive, except as held up against Holly Petraeus. I mean, they're ok looking, but as far as risking your career/marriage/reputation over them - no. At least Tiger Woods, for the most part, knew to risk everything over women who were actually pretty.
But yes, it turns out that the CIA and FBI are filled with and surrounded by people with the maturity level of college students, and it turns out - shockingly - that married people often have affairs. Anyone who is in a marriage and thinks their spouse has been faithful probably has a 1 in 2 or at least 1 in 3 chance of being wrong.
I do know why anyone cares – because this is still a Puritanical country where we'd all like to believe that sex should be reserved for hetero married couples, once a year without undue noise or movement, underneath the Christmas tree after the children have been knocked unconscious by eggnog.
But that said, my rhetorical question remains, who cares? Two adults wanted to send mash notes over e-mail without their spouse(s) and/or other crush(es) finding out. I am shocked, shocked to find that eroticism is going on in this country :)
Holly Solomon, 28, was arrested after running over husband Daniel Solomon following a wild chase that left him pinned underneath the vehicle.
Daniel Solomon, 36, was in critical condition at a local hospital, but is expected to survive, Gilbert police spokesman Sergeant Jesse Sanger said.
Police said Daniel Solomon told them his wife became angry over his "lack of voter participation" in last Tuesday's presidential election and believed her family would face hardship as a result of Obama winning another term.
Witnesses reported the argument broke out on Saturday morning in a parking lot and escalated. Mrs Solomon then chased her husband around the lot with the car, yelling at him as he tried to hide behind a light pole, police said. He was struck after attempting to flee to a nearby street.
Yes, but at least they're fully married.
I can't believe you missed the chance to tie this into a Jill Kelley joke.
If we kill the ATF, DEA, DHS and TSA, and reuse to increase funding or staffing for the FBI from current levels, the FBI would probably be a functional, efficient, task oriented organization with a reasonable charter.
Someone needs to watch the watchmen, and the FBI ought to be good at telling the Georgia State Patrol or whatever "no, you may not do that just because you don't like 'darkies in your neighborhoods.'"
I've never personally seen the allure. I have a hard enough time getting *one* woman to generally leave me alone. I certainly don't need *two* women criticizing me for drinking a bottle of sherry and then napping in the hammock all afternoon while they're at work or the fact that my wardrobe is mostly the same shirt and pants in different colors.
Okay, let me step back over into Gayville, or Gay City, or whatever, and point out that Tiger Woods is a very attractive, superstar, multi-millionaire athlete, and David Petraeus is the guy who got picked on for picking ROTC as his elective in junior high. I mean, seriously, no need to bring in Holly here. Look at David Petraeus, the man. Remove the "great man of history" fellatio and he's really quite unattractive. I suspect his prospects, even with power and the uniform, are not quite as wide open as Tiger's.
Well separate from Petraeus affair is still the fact that the Director of the CIA doesn't know how to encrypt data and hide an affair.
That's a great start, what are we going to do after lunch?
Somebody on Twitter (Julian Sanchez maybe) suggested many of their emails were actually individual entries on Google chat. That's still a lot of texting, but it could explain what they were discussing besides detailed revisions of PPACA.
As much as I generally tend to agree --
I have come around to the idea that folks in sensitive intelligence postings probably ought to get an exception to this rule...
Ass on the side is an end unto itself, Dexter.
To hide his ass on the side, obviously.
How quickly we forget Paula Jones and Monica Lewinsky!
Yeah, but he's kind of the head. Don't want him spearheading the CIA's new campaign to encrypt data by hiding flash drives in fake electrical sockets purchased from a novelty catalog.
Variety! Criticisms are like snowflakes, no two are ever exactly alike...
That's even worse! In a long-term relationship, you have all sorts of case law to get you out of trouble.
If we find that he's been revealing Jason Bourne's whereabouts to his squeeze, I'll agree. If it's just OMG YOU ARE TEH HOT, then I'll be less strung out :)
If every spy movie I've ever seen is any indication, the guy who can't keep it in his pants is either feeding information to the lover, or being blackmailed into it because of the affair. And I like to think Get Smart provides an accurate portrayal of the world of espionage.
For other ways in which extra-marital affairs and foreign policy don't mix...while trying to secure an anti-Spanish alliance with the French in the 1620s the Duke of Buckingham was banging (or perhaps even worse, unsuccessfully attempting to bang) the French Queen. I think affairs are just one of those things that are win-win if you're a civilian, but tend to cause more problems than they're worth if you are in the intelligence community.
Yeah, everyone loves a catfight, but Daly concludes with a point that contains more truth than 99% of the crap than we've seen to date:
Doesn't tend to work out that way.
Which included the classic defense of Promfumo, which was "Well, at least this was heterosexual!"
Bingo. That, by itself, should disqualify one from any high or sensitive office on the grounds of terminal stupidity.
There are laws against fraud and misrepresentation.
Well, there's reason to demand his resignation right there. That's pretty piss-poor crytopgraphy from a dude that's supposed to be heading the frigging CIA. Makes me wonder if someone can hack into Langley as guest/password.
bselig/bselig
How quickly we forget Paula Jones and Monica Lewinsky!
Entire forests and Twinkies factories were sacrificed to give those two their final distinctive looks. At least Broadwell isn't a size 10.
And don't forget Linda "Gus" Tripp, maybe the most frightening female ever to emerge outside of Germany in the entire 20th century.
Why did people write letters before--people like the frigging Duke of Wellington. Never underestimate the rationalization power of the little head over the big head. And let us all quit pretending we would be above it all.
I don't think I'm above it all, it's just that gluttony and sloth are my more typical sins of choice.
Why did people write letters before
Because you had badass big quill pens and fancy wax seals and awesome calligraphy signatures. My signature looks like it was written by a chimpanzee with Parkinson's.
How else would one expect them to conduct said affair? Carrier pigeon?
Somebody tell Dan that I think this is funny, and he's much better when he's being funny like this.
To be fair if you're someone like Horatio Nelson you are above it all, though perhaps in a different way than you mean. Win enough battles and you can sleep with whoever's wife you want. Our society sure has gone downhill since then.
Admit it, that would be totally epic.
A girl I know once carried on a correspondence with a guy that involved sending sandwiches through the mail. Her mom put a stop to it when one of them took almost a month to arrive.
Hey! I'm off ignore!
Yes. It would be epic. But probably a little weird. Sex with bird #### has got to be weird, right? We should add that to the LGBTFurries group, probably.
No, silly.
I like you when there's no election going on - took you off last week.
Also, it is worth remembering that it is 30,000 pages, as opposed to messages. If Kelley and Allen are hitting reply to each message, then they can quickly build to 5-10 pages per message or more. That adds up quickly if they keep every iteration of the email chain. It is still a huge amount of emails, but over a 2-3 year period (I understand it is since 2010), it becomes a bit more reasonable.
Never mind - I see that reports are now that there are 20-30k documents.
That link leads to a petition to....
Strip the Citizenship from Everyone who Signed a Petition to Secede and Exile Them
Man, my pool playing buddy may be in trouble, since he just sent me this e-mail a few hours ago:
and then followed up with another e-mail that contained only this link:
White House website deluged with secession petitions from 20 states
The poor guy had been thinking of moving to Florida, but now he's at a loss.
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