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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   7601. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4301465)
Huckabee and Stewart's discussion of gay marriage last night touches on several of the points raised here - no spoilers, but worth a watch on the web.
   7602. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4301466)
In William Manchester's great biography of Churchill,The Last Lion, Vol.I, Visions of Glory, there's a wonderful set piece at the beginning that beautifully sets out the thorough-going promiscuity of the English upper class. They'd all meet at someone's huge castle, and when they retired for the night they would pair up with someone not their spouse, and in the morning a factotum would sound a gong so that everyone would return to their respective rooms to present a public face at breakfast..

Sounds like the filming schedule arrangements for "Yankeeography", circa 1973.
   7603. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4301468)
I made an petition on whitehouse.gov for an even more important issue.
   7604. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4301469)
In William Manchester's great biography of Churchill,The Last Lion, Vol.I, Visions of Glory, there's a wonderful set piece at the beginning that beautifully sets out the thorough-going promiscuity of the English upper class. They'd all meet at someone's huge castle, and when they retired for the night they would pair up with someone not their spouse, and in the morning a factotum would sound a gong so that everyone would return to their respective rooms to present a public face at breakfast..


The original key parties!
   7605. BDC Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4301470)
I haven't been listening to the news much this past week. If Texas has already seceded, somebody let me know, my passport has lapsed.
   7606. bunyon Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:22 PM (#4301471)
To be fair if you're someone like Horatio Nelson you are above it all, though perhaps in a different way than you mean. Win enough battles and you can sleep with whoever's wife you want. Our society sure has gone downhill since then.

Right. Had Petraeus WON Afghanistan, I would get behind an unlimited supply of government supplied hookers for him.

Silly git didn't win, so keep it in your pants.
   7607. hokieneer Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4301475)
I haven't been listening to the news much this past week. If Texas has already seceded, somebody let me know, my passport has lapsed.


On whitehouse.gov, there are ~72,000 signatures on the drone strike succession petition. WH policy is to issues formal replies at 25K. The anticipation is too much to handle.
   7608. Morty Causa Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4301477)
Obama ought to reply in terms emulating those of Andrew Jackson.
   7609. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4301480)
White House website deluged with secession petitions from 20 states


So LA has something just shy of 20K signatures, TX is second with 15K or so. Be generous and say the other states average 10K per petition. 18*10K = 180K + 20K + 15K... Hell, say we have 250K petitioners at the end of festivities.

250K / 312M citizens*

Are we really surprised that .08% of the population are neoconfederate idiots?

*20 million illegal immigrants have been left out of this by design
   7610. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4301484)
Correcton: .08% are motivated neoconfederates with internet connectivity. Naturally, this constituency is underrepresented on the internet, what with the literacy requirement and all...
   7611. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4301486)
Naturally, this constituency is underrepresented on the internet, what with the literacy requirement and all...

Ever read the comments section to an article on a big media site? There is no literacy requirement on the internet.
   7612. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4301487)
   7613. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4301489)
WH policy is to issues formal replies at 25K. The anticipation is too much to handle.


It only will reply if the topic of the petition is within the purview of the President's executive authority, so I doubt anything will be forthcoming.
   7614. Langer Monk Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4301491)
Correcton: .08% are motivated neoconfederates with internet connectivity. Naturally, this constituency is underrepresented on the internet, what with the literacy requirement and all...


Some are sarcastic bastards willing to be rid of some states, I'm guessing.
   7615. BDC Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4301492)
This is all hilarious, of course, but it's another example of something I both do and don't understand. 72,000 people are distraught because the new President will be the guy who has been President for the last four years. This has been part of the ultra-Teaparty paranoia all along, of course: once re-elected, the real Obama will reveal himself, take away our guns, surrender to France, and the like. The accompanying warrant is that Obama has been the worst President since … well, since FDR, in their minds, I suppose … and therefore it was unthinkable that Romney could lose the election. But now the worst has happened, and the only recourse is to saw ourselves away from the mainland and float out to sea. This all makes sense if you are a complete lunatic.
   7616. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4301493)
My petition's up to 4 signature! We're on our way.
   7617. BDC Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4301496)
Perry opposes secession this time

That's a relief. I mean, I already speak Texan, but if we'd really bolted, I was fixing to have to learn the lyrics to George Strait's River of Love and the rules of NASCAR.
   7618. Moe Greene Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4301498)
I don't think I'm above it all, it's just that gluttony and sloth are my more typical sins of choice.

That's great and all when you're young, but the negative effects on stewardship, diplomacy, and martial really suck when you become king.

(Too much CK2.)
   7619. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:52 PM (#4301502)
More fun...

GOP Invites Rep. West To Run In Georgia

Florida GOP Rep. Allen West, who is stubbornly refusing to concede to his Democratic challenger, has something to look forward to if he gives up: an invitation to run for office in Georgia.

“I would be glad to have [West] come back to Georgia and at some point run here,” Georgia GOP chairwoman Sue Everhart told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution...

Everhart called West, who was born and raised in Atlanta, “one of the finest congressmen this country’s ever had.”


   7620. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4301505)
WH policy is to issues formal replies at 25K. The anticipation is too much to handle.


From the never ending font of entertainment that is Free Republic:

All it requires is for at least one state to cross the symbolic gesture of secession for Obama to react.

thats the goal, we want him to react, we should expect him to declare some form of retribution, restriction of movement, curfews and even the importation of UN troops to secure that particular states offices.


Secession is the ONLY legitimate way to begin an end to our association with the F’ing idiots who crave a socialist “benign” dictatorship. Our problem isnt the M’er F’ers in the elected offices. We could organize a mission to coordinate the assassination every single leftist POS in every single elected position and it would benefit us nothing. They would be replaced by the same or worse from the PEOPLE who have undergone years (decades) of indoctrination.

Our problem... THE problem... is the weak minded fools that allowed themselves to be sucked in to the death cult of forced collectivism.

and its only going to get worse as marxist teachers at government schools continue to pray on the weak minded among us, turning them against us and themselves.

The ballot box, as a means to right this ship is finished. In fact, this ship is finished... But its just a ship. a means of transporting a cargo. We can build another ship to safeguard the precious cargo that is now in danger of being sunk. Freedom and liberty do not have to be lost to the bottom of the ocean, we only need to have the desire, will and courage to leave the old and construct a new means of transporting them to future generations.


That last one had "NOT voting for the GOP's socialist - Romney" as their signature.

Although America carried President Obama confidently into a second term last Tuesday, I am confident that there was significant fraud.
Who won is anybody’s guess.


“0bama would never let this happen without a fight. The military would be divided which would lead to a bloody conflict. The real danger would come from an opportunistic foreign power that would either invade America or would strike a deal with 0bama to support him with troops if he agreed to be a figurehead dictator while they made all the decisions. Whether that would be Russia, China or Iran, is the question.”

This is the scenario Obama was installed to create in the U.S. Nothing shocking or unexpected is happening. All this was set in motion the day Obama took over the presidency.


There is no more time to straighten out the GOP or form a third conservative party. We are too far in debt, too far out of control on monetary supply, and the crisis is now, not four years or twelve years. Now is the time of collapse.
I pray that the Great Plains states and the deep South secede. It will smooth the fall and limit the chaos, and maybe save lives.


I love the supposition that a party to the right of the GOP would somehow be viable.

This would be a gift for Obama. He can play Abraham Lincoln, his favorite President, and can suspend Habeas Corpus just like he did, and abuse it like a bloodthirsty banana dictator, unlike Abe, who didn’t go quite that far. He can also push through sweeping constitutional changes, as was done after Abe’s death, but this will not be merely abolishing slavery and granting full citizenship rights to freedmen. After crushing the secessionists, he can admit Cuba as the 52nd State in the Union, and Venezuela as the 53rd, and nationalize all manufacturing and agriculture.



   7621. zenbitz Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4301506)
I was going to sign your petition, Dan, but I was too lazy to make an account.
   7622. DA Baracus Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4301510)
On whitehouse.gov, there are ~72,000 signatures on the drone strike succession petition. WH policy is to issues formal replies at 25K. The anticipation is too much to handle.


A local columnist suggested that the White House give those petitioners free tickets to Lincoln. I like that idea. Plus if they took them they'd be free loaders!
   7623. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4301511)
[7616] Nice work, Dan. You have my vote.
   7624. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4301512)
CK2!

I don't have a joke, but I love CK2.
   7625. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4301515)
Hmmmm, I wonder who's going to be next on the Tea Party's hit list?

Bobby Jindal: We can’t be ‘dumbed-down’ party

In an interview with Politico, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal criticized the Republican party as too anti-intellectual and too beholden to the wealthy.

He said that “offensive, bizarre” comments have damaged the party’s brand. “We’ve also had enough of this dumbed-down conservatism,” he added. “We need to stop being simplistic, we need to trust the intelligence of the American people and we need to stop insulting the intelligence of the voters.”


QFT
   7626. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4301518)
That's a relief. I mean, I already speak Texan, but if we'd really bolted, I was fixing to have to learn the lyrics to George Strait's River of Love and the rules of NASCAR.


Go fast. Turn left. How hard is that?
   7627. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4301520)
GOP Invites Rep. West To Run In Georgia

I wish he would - he could have a choice of getting his ass kicked in one of the gerrymandered Democratic districts or primary-ing one of the equally reprehensible Republicans we already have.
   7628. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4301521)
and its only going to get worse as marxist teachers at government schools continue to pray on the weak minded among us, turning them against us and themselves.




But, but, shouldn't that turn the weak minded back on the path of righteousness?
   7629. DA Baracus Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:04 PM (#4301523)
Remember Bobby Jindal's 15 minutes of fame? Those were the days.
   7630. BurlyBuehrle Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:05 PM (#4301524)
I do know why anyone cares – because this is still a Puritanical country where we'd all like to believe that sex should be reserved for hetero married couples, once a year without undue noise or movement, underneath the Christmas tree after the children have been knocked unconscious by eggnog.

But that said, my rhetorical question remains, who cares? Two adults wanted to send mash notes over e-mail without their spouse(s) and/or other crush(es) finding out. I am shocked, shocked to find that eroticism is going on in this country :)


The liberal in me hates to rain on anyone's "do whatever you want whenever you want with whomever you want" parade...and I *definitely* agree that we're a Puritanical country with a very unhealthy relationship/obsession with sex...

If the question is why should we indict our public officials for extra-marital affairs, then I guess I agree with the thought of "who cares."

But, in something more than the abstract, wedding vows mean something, just as "vows" generally mean something. If you promise to someone that you won't do X (i.e., won't sleep with anyone else) for as long as you remain married, isn't the other person entitled to rely on that promise? Does it not say something about your character that you couldn't or wouldn't be bothered to keep that promise? Hey, I think everyone should f**k whomever they want however they want, etc.

But if you're married, I think that means, at a minimum, telling your spouse "I want to f**k other people" first. If they acquiesce, great. If not, well, get a divorce, and then proceed to do whatever you want. But I don't think glossing over the marriage contract should be done quite so easily.
   7631. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4301528)
“I would be glad to have [West] come back to Georgia and at some point run here,” Georgia GOP chairwoman Sue Everhart told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution...

Everhart called West, who was born and raised in Atlanta, “one of the finest congressmen this country’s ever had.”


I imagine Sue Everhart in her little dungeon dreaming of how Allen West could finally unseat John Lewis in GA-05. I mean, Allen West is black, you know.
   7632. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4301529)
Remember Bobby Jindal's 15 minutes of fame? Those were the days


Yeah, Yglesias has a piece on the larger Politco Jindal article sarcastically entitled Bobby Jindal's plan to reposition the GOP on economics without changing any of their economic policies.
   7633. JL Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4301530)
This is all hilarious, of course, but it's another example of something I both do and don't understand. 72,000 people are distraught because the new President will be the guy who has been President for the last four years. This has been part of the ultra-Teaparty paranoia all along, of course: once re-elected, the real Obama will reveal himself, take away our guns, surrender to France, and the like. The accompanying warrant is that Obama has been the worst President since … well, since FDR, in their minds, I suppose … and therefore it was unthinkable that Romney could lose the election. But now the worst has happened, and the only recourse is to saw ourselves away from the mainland and float out to sea. This all makes sense if you are a complete lunatic.

Let's take this a couple of steps farther:

1. If you really believe all of that, do you think a little thing like a petition will stop Obama?

2. If you really believe all of that, do you want to identify yourself to the government be signing your name to a petition?
   7634. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:09 PM (#4301533)
The quotes from #7620 are just so crazy that I have to believe that most of them are DKos/ThinkProgress trolls just stirring up crazy stuff to point and laugh at later.

I refuse to believe that anyone honestly thinks
we should expect [Obama] to declare some form of retribution, restriction of movement, curfews and even the importation of UN troops to secure that particular states offices.

because of a ####### petition...

   7635. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:09 PM (#4301534)
how Allen West could finally unseat John Lewis in GA-05.

My district - boy howdy would I enjoy watching him try.
   7636. DA Baracus Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:09 PM (#4301535)
John Lewis vs Allen West. Please make this happen.
   7637. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4301537)
we should expect [Obama] to declare some form of retribution, restriction of movement, curfews and even the importation of UN troops to secure that particular states offices.


You clearly don't know these people. I know these people. This is how these people really think.
   7638. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4301538)
My district - boy howdy would I enjoy watching him try.


We're totally district buddies!
   7639. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:12 PM (#4301539)
The quotes from #7620 are just so crazy that I have to believe that most of them are DKos/ThinkProgress trolls just stirring up crazy stuff to point and laugh at later.

You'd think so, but it's harder than you think to sign up to troll Freeperland. They are quite skilled at detecting real crazy from fake, and have no truck with the latter. The overwhelming majority is real.
   7640. zonk Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:12 PM (#4301540)
Criticisms are like snowflakes, no two are ever exactly alike...

That's even worse! In a long-term relationship, you have all sorts of case law to get you out of trouble.


Apparently, I've only dated activist judges because they seem to have no respect for precedent...
   7641. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4301541)
I was going to sign your petition, Dan, but I was too lazy to make an account.


An account. At White House dot gov?! God, you might as well implant the tracking/mind control chip yourself, Obamacare fools.
   7642. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4301542)
The quotes from #7620 are just so crazy that I have to believe that most of them are DKos/ThinkProgress trolls just stirring up crazy stuff to point and laugh at later.


I doubt these are the majority opinions of people there - but they are fringy enough that they bring in a few from WAY out in left field, I think. Or, you could be right. I've thought about doing that once or twice, but why bother when you have (supposedly) the real thing? Instead, I once registered and tried to convince people that Obama was not a madman who was coming to take their guns (this was in 2008, after the last election). Once I started to argue with folks about his real objectives, my account was closed, just like that. No dissent allowed at Free Republic.
   7643. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4301543)
Ever read the comments section to an article on a big media site? There is no literacy requirement on the internet.


Point conceded.
   7644. Randy Jones Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:19 PM (#4301545)
Correcton: .08% are motivated neoconfederates with internet connectivity. Naturally, this constituency is underrepresented on the internet, what with the literacy requirement and all...


Some are sarcastic bastards willing to be rid of some states, I'm guessing.


Possibly, but I am not sure Grandpa Simpson knows how to use the internet.
   7645. Morty Causa Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4301552)
He can type. He can use the internet.
   7646. BDC Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4301553)
If the question is why should we indict our public officials for extra-marital affairs, then I guess I agree with the thought of "who cares."

It's very much that, Buehrle. It's just that we define fitness for public service in this country by a bizarre set of irrelevant moral standards. I'm a strong supporter of people who want to remain monogamous, too.
   7647. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4301558)
It's very much that, Buehrle. It's just that we define fitness for public service in this country by a bizarre set of irrelevant moral standards.


Did anyone even indict Petreaus? It seems like he 1) was banging a couple of extras on the side, 2) got caught up in a woman-scorned scenario that revealed leaked classified documents, which 3) led to a wider FBI investigation, which 4) was going to hit the media and become a scandal-story*, so he 5) resigned of his own volition.

You can argue that the scandal-story shouldn't be a scandal story, but dude, that's a bit much to ask. Sex scandals are as old as pair-bonding evolution and social hierarchies.
   7648. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4301560)
   7649. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4301564)
I'm with Sam on this one - there was classified information that went directly from the Director of The CIA to a civilian. That's a far far cry from a puritanical witch hunt about sex.
   7650. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4301566)
revealed leaked classified documents


A story I read suggested that the classified documents were his travel schedule (which is classified) that she knew because he told her.

Not exactly earth shattering stuff if true (not to be read as condoning any of the things that happened).

Still I admit this story just keeps getting better with the recent addition of the other other woman's twin sister and the child custody hearing and the various bankruptcies. It is a never ending spiral. I still want more about initial FBI agent/crazy guy with no shirt.
   7651. zenbitz Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:44 PM (#4301568)
marxist teachers at government schools continue to pray on the weak minded among us


GOLD, JERRRY! SOLID GOLD!
   7652. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4301569)
Not exactly earth shattering stuff if true (not to be read as condoning any of the things that happened).

I'd say there is a reasonable need for absolute OpSec regarding the Director of CIA's travel, wouldn't you?
   7653. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4301572)
I'd say there is a reasonable need for absolute OpSec regarding the Director of CIA's travel, wouldn't you?


Yep. So he didn't give her the nuclear codes. That's a win, I guess. But on the other hand, the Director of CIA sent his bang-buddy classified docs so as to facilitate the humpback tango. That's pretty good reason to fire his ass if he didn't step down voluntarily, actually.

Still I admit this story just keeps getting better with the recent addition of the other other woman's twin sister and the child custody hearing and the various bankruptcies. It is a never ending spiral.


A friend in another forum (career military guy) has repeatedly points out the fact that two primary targeting keys for blackmail of agents and personnel are 1) marital infidelity and 2) large ratios of debt, to the point that they actually screen for those things when you're applying for security credentials.
   7654. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4301573)
The quotes from #7620 are just so crazy that I have to believe that most of them are DKos/ThinkProgress trolls just stirring up crazy stuff to point and laugh at later.

I refuse to believe that anyone honestly thinks


we should expect [Obama] to declare some form of retribution, restriction of movement, curfews and even the importation of UN troops to secure that particular states offices.


because of a ####### petition...

Anyone who's ever heard of "Operation Water Moccasin"**, and the reaction to it throughout the South, will never underestimate the creulity of a large segment of our population.

**AKA the plot to have UN troops occupy the South and force us all into World Government....


Apparently, Operation Water Moccasin was the designation for a war game
that was to take place under the sponsorship of the U.S. Army's Special
Warfare School at Fort Bragg. This kind of thing is, by the way, very
common. Anyway, apparently some foreign officers from allied countries (
including some Third World nations) were undergoing training at the Special
Warfare School (also quite common), and they were going to take part in the
war game. The Pentagon issued a routine press release to this effect.

A Southern congressman came upon the press release in his routine
government mail, and raised some objection--I can't remember to what. But
he started talking about it to his constituents (maybe even did a mailing
back to the folks in his home district), and that's when the fecal matter
began to hit the fan. This account spread widely and changed rapidly.
BEfore you know it, people are hearing that the United Nations is staging
Operation Water Moccasin as part of the plan to merge the U.S. into a world
government. This mentality seems pretty close to what we hear today coming
from various "militias": the New World Order is coming to take away our
guns and set up a one-world government!

Let me stress that this rumor found fertile ground mostly in rural areas.
People living in places like Atlanta and Birmingham probably never heard it
. But it was spread through rural areas by newspapers (one such paper even
had an "official" map of the zones of occupation planned for the U.S. It
seems that the South was scheduled for occupation mostly by African troops,
and you can imagine what kinds of buttons THAT pushed), small radio
stations (the kind that usually have one nut preaching over the air for 12
hours a day) and, or course, word of mouth. Apparently, there was quite
the panic.
   7655. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4301574)
Like I said, not condoning, but just pointing out that "classified" means many things and in the last few decades the military has run around classifying everything. He should have known better and not leaked it - he needs to follow the rules after all - but some folks (not many here though) are acting like leaking classified documents (any classified document) is half a step away from handing the keys of the White House to Canada.

to the point that they actually screen for those things when you're applying for security credentials


They would be idiots not to.
   7656. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4301575)
   7657. Nasty Nate Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4301580)
Atheists: way worse than Blacks, Jews, and even Homos: http://www.npr.org/blogs/13.7/2012/11/13/164963163/would-you-vote-for-an-atheist-tell-the-truth


Are people so naive that they really think all of these elected politicians believe in God?
   7658. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4301581)
Atheists: way worse than Blacks, Jews, and even Homos


Yeah it is like that in pretty much every survey. Atheists scored worse than Muslims post 9/11 (If I remember correctly).

The first words out of a long time coworker when she found out I was an Atheist "But you're so nice." (Little did she know).
   7659. Howie Menckel Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:11 PM (#4301582)
I'll "snatch" a Coke for someone if they have already posted this unfortunate error:

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/denver-abc-station-misnames-paula-broadwells-petraeus-book-all-up-in-my-snatch/

surrendering seltzer with lime to 7648, although that one didn't have the word "snatch" in it (twice)

   7660. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4301583)
From Politico - "Former CIA director David Petraeus and his biographer, Paula Broadwell, discussed their extramarital dalliances using an email technique favored by Al Qaeda, according to a report.
Rather than sending emails back and forth to each other, Petraeus and Broadwell shared an email account where both would write messages and leave them in the “draft” folder, according to The Associated Press. The other person would then log in to the account, read the draft email, delete it and then compose a response, also to be left as a draft note"


Well, there's reason to demand his resignation right there. That's pretty piss-poor crytopgraphy from a dude that's supposed to be heading the frigging CIA. Makes me wonder if someone can hack into Langley as guest/password.
That seems pretty workable. If you don't use each others' real names, where's the weakness? And how long are deleted emails kept on a host server, anyway [nervously]?
   7661. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4301584)
andy, when was that (owm)?
EDIT: NM, I have google.
   7662. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4301586)
I'll "snatch" a Coke for someone if they have already posted this unfortunate error:

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/denver-abc-station-misnames-paula-broadwells-petraeus-book-all-up-in-my-snatch/


See [7648]
I'll take a seltzer with lime, please (unless there's a fountain coke machine nearby).
   7663. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4301587)
   7664. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4301590)
That seems pretty workable. If you don't use each others' real names, where's the weakness? And how long are deleted emails kept on a host server, anyway [nervously]?


Dude, if they're mining your email server, you've already been caught.
   7665. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4301595)
Like I said, not condoning, but just pointing out that "classified" means many things and in the last few decades the military has run around classifying everything. He should have known better and not leaked it - he needs to follow the rules after all - but some folks (not many here though) are acting like leaking classified documents (any classified document) is half a step away from handing the keys of the White House to Canada.


I act like the director of the CIA potentially leaking classified documents to his mistress is something that should go directly to the President, without passing Go, without collecting two hundred dollars. Who cares whether the documents related to his travel schedule (even assuming that unproven fact arguendo)? It is a serious breach that raises questions of what else she might have access to, and the breach in itself would render the CIA director unfit for his job.

WTF.

(She was also going around saying things at speeches that nobody else had ever heard before, such as the Libya facility housing prisoners, which was a potential reason for the attack. At a minimum her public comments should be investigated. Again, WTF.)
   7666. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4301596)
andy, when was that (owm)?


Looks to be 1963. Late Kennedy term.
   7667. Poulanc Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4301598)
I act like the director of the CIA potentially leaking classified documents to his mistress is something that should go directly to the President, without passing Go, without collecting two hundred dollars.



You really want to blame Obama for this, don't you?
   7668. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4301601)
   7669. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4301602)
You really want to blame Obama for this, don't you?


You really want to not blame Obama for this no matter what. Don't you.

I want to investigate and figure out who deserves blame, including Obama. If he didn't know about this until after the election, he set up a system of willful blindness. If he did know about it, that raises another problem. Sticking your head in the sand like an ostrich because you like Obama's policies is fine for you, but not to be taken seriously by others.
   7670. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4301603)
Well, an "non-theist" was elected to Congress just last week.

Wow, there are more Hindu congresspeople than atheists.
   7671. Poulanc Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4301604)
If he did know about it, that raises another problem.


What problem is that?


EDIT : And hasn't it been reported that this investigation already followed the proper channels?
   7672. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4301605)
Well, an "non-theist" was elected to Congress just last week.


Possibly. It's hard to tell what she is:

While Sinema’s campaign was initially unavailable for comment after Tuesday’s election, spokesman Justin Unga said Friday that Sinema does not consider herself a nonbeliever, adding that she prefers a “secular approach.”

“Kyrsten believes the terms non-theist, atheist or nonbeliever are not befitting of her life’s work or personal character,” Unga said in email. “She does not identify as any of the above.”
   7673. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4301606)
If he didn't know about this until after the election, he set up a system of willful blindness.


Obama set up the FBI?
   7674. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4301607)
If he didn't know about this until after the election, he set up a system of willful blindness.


Explain this one to me.
Are you suggesting he told the FBI not to tell him anything about any investigation until after the election?
   7675. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4301608)
A friend in another forum (career military guy) has repeatedly points out the fact that two primary targeting keys for blackmail of agents and personnel are 1) marital infidelity and 2) large ratios of debt, to the point that they actually screen for those things when you're applying for security credentials


I agree w these assertions. In a previous life (prosecutor role, and judicial law clerk), it was also mandated that if you were ever in the presence of drug use, you were to leave the location at once. Concerns over blackmail are not exaggerated. Big concern in law enforcement, justice and military.
   7676. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4301609)
You really want to blame Obama for this, don't you?


You really want to not blame Obama for this no matter what. Don't you.

I want to investigate and figure out who deserves blame, including Obama. If he didn't know about this until after the election, he set up a system of willful blindness. If he did know about it, that raises another problem. Sticking your head in the sand like an ostrich because you like Obama's policies is fine for you, but not to be taken seriously by others.


So the answer is yes then?

Sticking your neck into looney tune conspiracy conspiracy land may be fine for you, but not to be taken seriously by others.


   7677. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4301611)
If he didn't know about this until after the election, he set up a system of willful blindness.


You're off the res on this one, Ray.
   7678. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4301614)
You really want to not blame Obama for this no matter what. Don't you.

Eric Cantor knew since early October and SAT ON IT THE WHOLE TIME!!!!! THEY GOT TO HIM TOO!
   7679. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4301615)
I act like the director of the CIA potentially leaking classified documents to his mistress is something that should go directly to the President, without passing Go, without collecting two hundred dollars.


You really want to blame Obama for this, don't you?

It's funny how he's yet to show any curiosity about the motivation of that FBI agent with the "worldview" who passed on info to a Republican congressman. No possible stench there. Or why Eric Canter or Mueller didn't notify Obama directly if it was so damn critical to national security.

It may have been upthread or it may have just been in this morning's paper, but there was a beautiful anecdote about how during the Cold War era, a Soviet official tried to blackmail a high French government official by showing him photos of the official in bed with his mistress.

Instead of caving into the blackmail, the French official just said "I'll take one of this one and one of that one, and maybe one of that one, too." The Soviet official threw up his hands and gave up, probably wishing he could get transferred to America where that sort of move seems to work a lot more reliably.

EDIT: coke to spike and to everyone else who's raised the same question about Canter, including myself upthread. Of course Ray probably thinks that that FBI guy is some sort of a citizen hero who deserves the Linda Tripp medal for bravery.
   7680. Steve Treder Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4301617)
Eric Cantor knew since early October and SAT ON IT THE WHOLE TIME!!!!! THEY GOT TO HIM TOO!

We're through the looking glass now, people.
   7681. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4301619)
If he didn't know about this until after the election, he set up a system of willful blindness.


Explain this one to me.
Are you suggesting he told the FBI not to tell him anything about any investigation until after the election?


Obviously Reverend Wright and the Black Panthers must have had something to do with this. Let's bring in Kenneth Starr so we can get to the bottom of it!
   7682. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4301621)
Explain this one to me.
Are you suggesting he told the FBI not to tell him anything about any investigation until after the election?


You don't understand

IT IS ALL OBAMA'S FAULT
HE'S OMNIPOTENT DONTCHA KNOW
all you have to do is dig down deep and find the evidence

because you know stuff like this never ever happened on the watch of any other president ever in the history of the US.

It works like this

Bhenghazi: totally Obama's fault (except maybe in 2016 it will be retroactively H. Clinton's fault)
Beirut: totally not Reagan's fault
9/11: totally not Bush's fault

See how that works, it makes everything clear doesn't it?


Reagan- running away from Beirut means, well nothing
Reagan- picking a fight with Libya and downing 2 planes = projecting strength
Clinton- launching a missile strike on Sudan = projecting weakness
Obama- launching drone strike after drone strike, a surge in Afghanistan and a successful hit on Bin Laden = projecting weakness

why on earth does any one any where ever take this nonsense seriously?
rightwing babbling on this is like their babbling on the alleged pro-Obama bias in polling- they're not reflecting reality they're reflecting what's been bouncing off the walls of the echo chamber

There is currently ZERO evidence that Obama has anything to do with the current Petreous situation (other than naming him as head of the CIA in the first place) - there is some evidence (not much) that this was blown out of proportion by an FBI agent due to said agent's anti-Obama bias...





   7683. JL Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4301622)
I want to investigate and figure out who deserves blame, including Obama. If he didn't know about this until after the election, he set up a system of willful blindness. If he did know about it, that raises another problem. Sticking your head in the sand like an ostrich because you like Obama's policies is fine for you, but not to be taken seriously by others.

Or maybe they waited to get it to him because they were extra super cautious because it was the head of the C. I. f'ing A. and they did not want to be on the hook for laying out the bombshell before they hadd all their i's dotted and t's crossed. That is at least possible, right?
   7684. zonk Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4301623)


You really want to not blame Obama for this no matter what. Don't you.

I want to investigate and figure out who deserves blame, including Obama. If he didn't know about this until after the election, he set up a system of willful blindness. If he did know about it, that raises another problem. Sticking your head in the sand like an ostrich because you like Obama's policies is fine for you, but not to be taken seriously by others.


Am I misreading this, or are you essentially saying that his guilt/culpability is already a 'known fact' -- now we're just figuring out what the exact charge should be?

That seems a little... well... cokes to multiples above.
   7685. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4301630)
A Salafist in Egypt is calling for the destruction of the Sphinx...

I remember reading a novel a long time ago about a jihadist takeover in Egypt- one of the 1st things the government did was demolish the Sphinx/Pyramids other ancient sites...

   7686. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4301633)
they did not want to be on the hook for laying out the bombshell before they hadd all their i's dotted and t's crossed. That is at least possible, right?


Not in right-wing-conspiracy-land. In that world, you simply sling all the mud you can find, from any source, from any angle, for any reason, and claim "cover-up!" if no one can make head nor tails of the #### you're trying to say.

Dotting i's and crossing t's just slows you down. There is no time for "fact checking".
   7687. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4301635)
A Salafist in Egypt is calling for the destruction of the Sphinx...


It's worse than that -- the government in Saudi Arabia is planning to demolish some of Islam's oldest mosques.
   7688. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4301637)
What I find most odd about Ray's stance here is that someone who positions himself as a libertarian and a proponent of market based decision making and an vocal critic of the inefficiency of top-down centralized bureaucracies is somehow positing a situation where the king must know everything at once.
   7689. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4301639)
What's a second term w/o 'hearings.'
   7690. JL Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4301642)
Not in right-wing-conspiracy-land. In that world, you simply sling all the mud you can find, from any source, from any angle, for any reason, and claim "cover-up!" if no one can make head nor tails of the #### you're trying to say.

Dotting i's and crossing t's just slows you down. There is no time for "fact checking".


Having worked in at a government agency for a time, I will even stipulate that it is not thoroughness but rather CYA actions. I have no special insight into the FBI, but I can't imagine that wrongly going after the Director of the CIA is good for the career. So in this scenario, I have no doubt that the agents were well and truly careful about getting as much evidence as they could and ensuring they considered everything as this moved up the chain.
   7691. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4301646)
Can someone have bigoted beliefs and not be a bigot? Sure, I guess.

But why should we care?
Because the actual bigots are going to keep on opposing it and aren't worth engaging, whereas the ones who don't support SSM due to a lack of critical thought might listen and change their minds.

Edit--probably late.
   7692. GregD Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4301647)
Atlantic says Allen and Kelley only exchanged a couple of hundred emails over three years with vaguely affectionate content but no smoking gun.

What fun is that?

Also says Allen received an email disparaging Kelley and forwarded to her possibly the start of the whole incident
   7693. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4301650)
Atheists: way worse than Blacks, Jews, and even Homos:

Well, at least we're just as trustful as rapists.
   7694. Langer Monk Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4301651)
NBC News has a timeline. I guess they're now in on it too.
   7695. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4301657)
They only put it up to divert attention from the Benghazi story.
   7696. Howie Menckel Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4301660)

below is the response by the NY Times guy who ran the weird letter in July that began: "My wife is having an affair with a government executive. His role is to manage a project whose progress is seen worldwide as a demonstration of American leadership. (This might seem hyperbolic, but it is not an exaggeration.)"

Does this response seem a little, odd?

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8624514/chuck-klosterman-david-petraeus-scandal-living-cia-conspiracy-theory

   7697. Bitter Mouse Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4301661)
They only put it up to divert attention from the Benghazi story.


I am sure you meant Benghazi Scandal, though I hear some prefer Benghazi Crisis.
   7698. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4301663)
   7699. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4301665)
I retain my unhip attachment to Chuck Klosterman and his entire catalog, dammit. He's like my Rush or Pink Floyd collection. I won't give him up.
   7700. BDC Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4301670)
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