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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   7701. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4301673)
No, seriously. Flip.
   7702. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4301674)
Does this response seem a little, odd?

Not remotely, no - seems very Klosterman.
   7703. DA Baracus Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4301679)
   7704. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4301683)
Given all the really interesting, worthwhile things Obama could be attacked over, why do Ray (RDP) and Joe pick the things they pick?

That seems pretty workable. If you don't use each others' real names, where's the weakness? And how long are deleted emails kept on a host server, anyway [nervously]?

Dude, if they're mining your email server, you've already been caught.
It's amazing, how much I don't know. Is it that you're accessing the surreptitious email account from your own computer?

Some of the bafflement over how an atheist can possibly be a moral person is genuine. I've probably had a half-dozen conversations with very religious friends over the last decade who asked me a ton of well-intentioned questions about how I can tell right from wrong, if that's not derived from God.
   7705. BDC Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4301684)
I am still waiting for anything to rock my world re: Petraeus's leaking of anything harmful. If he tells his gf "I'll be in Boca next weekend" and that happens to be an Eyes Only factoid, I'm still ho-hum. But I promise to change my mind if he let her see the Big Board, or something.

Meanwhile, the subject of atheists and office interests me. Republican Presidents in particular have gotten a pretty free pass on this topic, at least in my lifetime. It was said of Eisenhower before he ran for President that he needed two things if he wanted to win: a political party and a religion. (He chose one of each.) Nixon and Reagan, in particular, were not very active in their religions, whatever they were. Nixon always said he was a Quaker, but I don't believe he was ever seen at Meeting or could have told you much about the Friends. Reagan was noted for rarely going to church, but talking in a rosily unspecific way about the Almighty.

This is without getting into the many old-timey Presidents who had very little religion or even personal belief. Being extremely casual about religion was a very acceptable line for a politician BITD, despite the belief current among today's right that the further back you go the more people thought about Jesus 24/7.
   7706. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4301691)
It's amazing, how much I don't know. Is it that you're accessing the surreptitious email account from your own computer?


If someone has the ambition and drive to find the email server in question, they probably have the wherewithal to trace IP addresses for access to that account. But on a more general level, if someone is convinced enough that you're doing something worth investigating that deeply, odds are you've already given away the game that you're doing something on the down low. And if you've given them enough cause to kick off the hunt, odds are you've done something in a publicly verifiable way at some point in the process.

Run around all you want. A man is guilty of only the things he is caught doing, after all. But if you're banging the secretary, and someone comes at you with a "dude, we have some reports that you're banging the secretary," just cop the deal and save everyone the time and energy.
   7707. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4301696)
Reagan, in particular, were not very active in their religions


Especially ironic given how fawned over he is among Evangelicals today.
   7708. JL Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4301700)
I am still waiting for anything to rock my world re: Petraeus's leaking of anything harmful. If he tells his gf "I'll be in Boca next weekend" and that happens to be an Eyes Only factoid, I'm still ho-hum. But I promise to change my mind if he let her see the Big Board, or something.

It seems to me that this is a bright line sort of thing. Yes, because Petraeus confessed immediately, he was likely not going to be blackmailed and yes, he did not hand over any really important classified information. But we probably want those to be hard no's for a guy in that position. Because maybe the next guy (or gal) is deathly afraid of an affair being revealed, or starts ramping up the types of classified information that is shared.
   7709. DA Baracus Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4301708)
This is serious stuff! I demand a full Congressional investigation!

They also have direct links to Florida's highest political circles, The Daily Telegraph has learned. Miss Khawam once dated Charlie Crist, the state's former governor, a Republican source said, while Pam Bondi, its Attorney General and a close ally of Mitt Romney, attended a function at Mrs Kelley's home.


Mrs Kelley, a mother-of-three and unpaid "social liaison" for the US military in Tampa, is said to have spared no expense at such parties to honour top brass stationed at nearby US Central Command. She was pictured at one event at her $1.2 million mansion in 2010 with Gen Petraeus, who arrived in a 28-man police motorcycle escort.

Guests at Mrs Kelley's parties were treated to lavish buffets, drank champagne and puffed on cigars while being entertained by string quartets, according to insider accounts.

Yet she and her husband Scott, a surgeon, were soon being sued for $1.9 million by Central Bank after allegedly failing to keep up with mortgage payments on a house they bought after starting their own property company. A similar $1.8 million property lawsuit from Regions Bank followed soon after.

Later in the year, Regions Bank filed another claim against the Kelleys for $453,000, before Bank of America sued Mrs Kelley for $25,000 in allegedly unpaid credit card charges. All four cases remain open. The banks' lawyers declined to comment. Mrs Kelley's attorney did not return a request for comment.


Miss Khawam filed for bankruptcy in April this year, filings show. She owed more than $3 million spanning taxes, property debts, legal fees and personal loans to associates – including $800,000 from Mrs Kelley and her husband, who have taken her in at their Tampa mansion.

Separately she is being sued in Maryland for $100,000 in legal fees and in Florida by her former boss Barry Cohen, a prominent Tampa lawyer, who claims in his lawsuit that she "fraudulently omitted Rolex watches, sable mink furs and a diamond ring" from her bankruptcy filing, which she denies.

Mr Cohen's action came in response to a lawsuit against him from Miss Khawam, who accused him of breach of contract and failing to take action to a complaint of sexual harassment. Mr Cohen denies the allegations.


Real Housewives of Tampa.
   7710. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4301713)
Mrs Kelley, a mother-of-three and unpaid "social liaison" for the US military in Tampa, is said to have spared no expense at such parties to honour top brass stationed at nearby US Central Command. She was pictured at one event at her $1.2 million mansion in 2010 with Gen Petraeus, who arrived in a 28-man police motorcycle escort.

Guests at Mrs Kelley's parties were treated to lavish buffets, drank champagne and puffed on cigars while being entertained by string quartets, according to insider accounts.


Remember when David Petraeus was the unassailable genius of impeccable moral certitude who was going to save us in Iraq and Afghanistan? I'm sure Caligula won some battles somewhere too, right?
   7711. McCoy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4301717)
1.2 million dollar homes are a dime a dozen down in Florida. Your local school's janitor probably has one. As for the parties, what got described is nowhere near what I consider "lavish".
   7712. zonk Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4301718)
Remember when David Petraeus was the unassailable genius of impeccable moral certitude who was going to save us in Iraq and Afghanistan? I'm sure Caligula won some battles somewhere too, right?


He expanded the empire in Libya and if my classical history recollections hold, Rome also made its first forays into England under Caligula...
   7713. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:08 PM (#4301721)
Remember when David Petraeus was the unassailable genius of impeccable moral certitude who was going to save us in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Sheeeeit - by late 2007, he was being measured for the role of James Matoon Scott in the Republican remake of 7 Days In May with a surprise new ending.
   7714. Howie Menckel Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4301724)
and Jersey FINALLY enters the scene. only South Jersey so far, but it's a start. If a Jersey Housewife or Shore cast member gets into the mix, all bets are off.

http://articles.philly.com/2012-11-12/news/35069798_1_natalie-khawam-marcelle-khawam-paula-broadwell

love that Kelley has a twin, too. waiting to hear which of these characters gets amnesia first, or fakes their own death....

   7715. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:18 PM (#4301728)
My favorite bit of trivia from today's articles is the photo of the two twins, Kelley's husband and both Petraeuses on their lawn watching Gasparilla. My first reaction was "of ####### course it had to be at Gasparilla."
   7716. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:19 PM (#4301730)
I'll start with this:

Do people here believe that the timing of the shoe dropping here -- Obama supposedly found out the day after the election, and let's assume arguendo that that was true -- was pure coincidence?

I just want to understand the level of delusion people are operating under.

And if you answer or ask your own questions in reply, please answer my question as well.
   7717. dr. scott Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4301731)
1.2 million dollar homes are a dime a dozen down in Florida. Your local school's janitor probably has one. As for the parties, what got described is nowhere near what I consider "lavish".


1.2 million dollar homes are a dime a dozen in San Francisco, they are still quite large and a bit rare in most of Florida... I agree that there is nothing lavish about the party though. Its a typical wealthy high class party. Drinks, food, nice home, live entertainment... see them all the time on TV and movies to show that the other half lives better, not Caligulesque.
   7718. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4301732)
1.2 million dollar homes are a dime a dozen in San Francisco, they are still quite large and a bit rare in most of Florida...


Not if they're on the water.
   7719. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:22 PM (#4301733)
Do people here believe that the timing of the shoe dropping here -- Obama supposedly found out the day after the election, and let's assume arguendo that that was true -- was pure coincidence?
Of course not. Obama can rig an election; this was nothing by comparison.
   7720. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:23 PM (#4301734)
I just want to understand the level of delusion people are operating under.


We're operating under the delusion that you're looking for a conspiracy to latch onto, because you want one to exist very badly.
   7721. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:23 PM (#4301735)
Do people here believe that the timing of the shoe dropping here -- Obama supposedly found out the day after the election -- was pure coincidence?


Maybe, maybe not, don't know enough yet, it may be that he knew before hand, or maybe not.

I just want to understand the level of delusion people are operating under.

no you are not, you are the deluded one and desparately tryng to convince yourslef taht, no it's everyone else who is deluded- and it's a pity, since you were one of the few anti-Dems who didn't imbibe the pre-election OMG the polls are skewed koolaid...
   7722. McCoy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4301737)
He expanded the empire in Libya and if my classical history recollections hold, Rome also made its first forays into England under Caligula...

Caligula was born before Caesar?
   7723. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4301738)
We're operating under the delusion that you're looking for a conspiracy to latch onto, because you want one to exist very badly.


that's not a "delusion," that's a logical inference.
   7724. Steve Treder Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4301739)
I just want to understand the level of delusion people are operating under.

I can't decide if this works best read in "Kevin Costner laboring with Southern accent" voice, or "Rush firing up the dittoheads" voice.
   7725. Poulanc Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:26 PM (#4301742)
Do people here believe that the timing of the shoe dropping here -- Obama supposedly found out the day after the election, and let's assume arguendo that that was true -- was pure coincidence?


I'll go with pure coincidence, because I can't imagine why anyone would lie about it. Seriously - I can't come up with a good conspiracy theory as to why they would lie about when Obama found out.
   7726. BDC Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:26 PM (#4301743)
Do people here believe that the timing of the shoe dropping here -- Obama supposedly found out the day after the election -- was pure coincidence?

I would sooner believe that the Great Turkey will put cans of cranberry sauce in my stocking next Wednesday night.
   7727. Mefisto Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:26 PM (#4301744)
if my classical history recollections hold, Rome also made its first forays into England under Caligula...


Caesar was there long before. Off memory also, but I'm pretty sure it was Claudius who was next.

Edit: Coke to McCoy.
   7728. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:28 PM (#4301747)
1.2 million dollar homes are a dime a dozen in San Francisco, they are still quite large and a bit rare in most of Florida...



Not if they're on the water.


There aren't too many $1.2 mil "mansions" on the water in Florida. A waterfront mansion, if the word means anything, probably starts at $4 mil.
   7729. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:30 PM (#4301749)
Well lets see -

Did the President find out about the FBI Investigation of Gen. Petraeus the day after the election?

Evidence for: public statements of all parties involved.
Evidence against: wharrrgarbl

Tough call.

   7730. formerly dp Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4301750)
Do people here believe that the timing of the shoe dropping here -- Obama supposedly found out the day after the election, and let's assume arguendo that that was true -- was pure coincidence?

Well, the vice president's son killed someone in a hit-and-run, and they tried to keep that quiet during the election, so I guess anything's possible...
   7731. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4301751)
I would sooner believe that the Great Turkey will put cans of cranberry sauce in my stocking next Wednesday night.


He will if you've been a bad boy this year.
   7732. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4301753)
I'll go with pure coincidence, because I can't imagine why anyone would lie about it. Seriously - I can't come up with a good conspiracy theory as to why they would lie about when Obama found out.


I'm not asking whether someone lied about when he was told. Please re-read my question, which assumes arguendo that he truthfully found out the day after the election.

I'm asking whether a decision was made to keep him in the dark about it until after the election.

If the year was 2011, would Obama still have been told on November 7th?
   7733. dr. scott Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4301754)
RDP, it does seem a bit odd, but mainly because it came out at all. this is the stuff that is usually covered up...

If, however, we assume that the FBI did follow this line becasue of what is currently being reported, it does not surprise me that noone wanted the president to know, till after the election, especially if the first thing he has to do is accept a resignation. that would really change the news cycle. It may or may not effect the election, but it would likely cause people to be nervous about thier future employment.

Also, they want to be really, really sure... as if they were wrong... this type of thing is a real career shortener. Either way not letting him know ahead of time can be a very smart CYA type of thing.

   7734. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4301756)
I don't even get why this is a scandal. If two gay guys can get married in New York, tie tin cans to the bumper of their car and drive across the George Washington Bridge, and suddenly not be married anymore, there's no WAY David Petraeus was a married man in Afghanistan.
   7735. JuanGone..except1game Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:39 PM (#4301761)
Well, the vice president's son killed someone in a hit-and-run, and they tried to keep that quiet during the election, so I guess anything's possible...


Don't forget that his potential running mate and new best buddy tried to blow up half of the top military brass. I'm sure there are links to Fast and Furious somewhere here.
   7736. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4301763)
I don't even get why this is a scandal. If two gay guys can get married in New York, tie tin cans to the bumper of their car and drive across the George Washington Bridge, and suddenly not be married anymore, there's no WAY David Petraeus was a married man in Afghanistan.


According to the timeline linked above, the good general didn't start tapping the biographer until after he resigned his commission and started working at CIA (circa Nov 2011.)

Ray, please read the same timeline and explain to me where the "missing time" is where the POTUS was being protected from... Whatever it is he was being protected from.
   7737. Steve Treder Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:45 PM (#4301771)
a decision was made

Because all conspiracies work best in the passive voice.
   7738. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:49 PM (#4301775)
and if my classical history recollections hold, Rome also made its first forays into England under Caligula


That can't be right. Julius Caesar went into England. And then came home because of all the weirdoes painted blue. I remember translating the passage where one of his men jumped off the boat and immediately sank to the bottom because of all his armor.
   7739. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4301778)
But if you're banging the secretary, and someone comes at you with a "dude, we have some reports that you're banging the secretary," just cop the deal and save everyone the time and energy.
That's what law enforcement folks keep telling me, but lawyers keep telling me that if it weren't for premature confessions (and rats), just about no one would go to jail.

I'll start with this:

Do people here believe that the timing of the shoe dropping here -- Obama supposedly found out the day after the election, and let's assume arguendo that that was true -- was pure coincidence?
You're wasting your time, but it's entirely plausible Obama was told the day after. In a well-run, politically savvy Presidency, if I'm Obama's chief of staff, and assuming I know everything about the story, I'll know a number of things, including

a) this is a politically very sensitive matter
b) it's irrelevant to real national security
c) the president is best shielded from political fallout by not knowing about the story until after the election
d) protecting him politically is part of my job, therefore I specifically don't tell Obama until the day after the election

The alternative would be to tell the president the story in a private meeting in, say, mid-October, ask him how he wanted it handled, then handle it that way. That he was told stays our dirty little secret.

Serious question in return, and not that it makes it right, and so on, but:

Do you think there's ever been a presidency that operated differently?
   7740. Ron J2 Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:51 PM (#4301779)
Whatever it is he was being protected from.


See this is the thing I don't get. Exactly how is it harmful to Obama that Petraeus has to resigns?

Oh I know the right wingers would have assumed that it was some kind of cover for Benghazi, but let's face it they already know the truth and nobody else cares.
   7741. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:52 PM (#4301780)
Do people here believe that the timing of the shoe dropping here -- Obama supposedly found out the day after the election, and let's assume arguendo that that was true -- was pure coincidence?


Yes.

Is it not safe to assume that they finished the interviews on November 2nd (a Friday), collected all the information they had (Saturday/Sunday), prepared the report for the White House (Monday) and then decided interrupting him on election day might not be the best timing? Was waiting one more day really that terrible, given that they might have to tell Romney as well (in the alternate reality) the next day?

Now, if you think that they did keep the information from Obama until after the election, what is the reason?
Was it to keep it from getting out? Well, Obama's most sworn enemies (Republicans) had known since "late summer", and didn't make a peep about it (even "off the record" to a reporter). If they didn't give a #### about the information, why would it be so important to "bury it" until after the election?

Seriously, answer me that. Where is the scandal that harms Obama in this story? Why would they keep it from him until it after the election (if you assume they were done investigating, which doesn't seem to be the case according to the timeline)?


   7742. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:53 PM (#4301781)
That can't be right. Julius Caesar went into England. And then came home because of all the weirdoes painted blue. I remember translating the passage where one of his men jumped off the boat and immediately sank to the bottom because of all his armor.


Caesar raided Britain twice, but never attempted and colonization. The first invasion with the purpose of establishing Roman control took place in 43 AD under Vespasian, during the reign of Claudius, successor to Caligula.
   7743. dr. scott Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:58 PM (#4301785)
See this is the thing I don't get. Exactly how is it harmful to Obama that Petraeus has to resigns?


It may not have been harmful (in terms of reelection), but if he had to resign before the election it would have created a lot of uncertainty, and a ton of headaches. If Obama knows a month before the election and they wait till after the election to have him resign it just looks bad... nothing really terrible or traumatic, but it would be food for a lot of attacks that would likely drive the news more unpredictably than it currently is going.
   7744. Lassus Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:00 PM (#4301788)
I just want to understand the level of delusion people are operating under.

I still think I have a good novel in me somewhere.
   7745. dr. scott Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4301789)
Is it not safe to assume that they finished the interviews on November 2nd (a Friday), collected all the information they had (Saturday/Sunday), prepared the report for the White House (Monday) and then decided interrupting him on election day might not be the best timing? Was waiting one more day really that terrible, given that they might have to tell Romney as well (in the alternate reality) the next day?


Agreed, but I think its at least plausible that the timeline was devised for that reason. Delays (if they occured) in these types of investigations happen all the time for mundane reasons though, so that is possible as well.
   7746. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4301790)
Do people here believe that the timing of the shoe dropping here -- Obama supposedly found out the day after the election, and let's assume arguendo that that was true -- was pure coincidence?
Ray's not saying there's a conspiracy here. He's just saying that every other possible explanation is wrong.
   7747. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4301792)
b) it's irrelevant to real national security


"Real" national security?

And the ultimate _conclusion_ may be that this didn't harm national security, but the issue is whether a _threshold_ has been met to inform the president.
   7748. formerly dp Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4301794)
Don't forget that his potential running mate and new best buddy tried to blow up half of the top military brass. I'm sure there are links to Fast and Furious somewhere here.

Oh I won't. As long as you don't forget that the potential running mate/aspiring terrorist is also ####### his CIA handler.
   7749. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4301795)
Seriously, answer me that. Where is the scandal that harms Obama in this story? Why would they keep it from him until it after the election (if you assume they were done investigating, which doesn't seem to be the case according to the timeline)?


but but but there are people who REALLY want there to be a scandal that is so bad that it forces Obama to resign or would even lead a Demo Senate to vote to remove him...
   7750. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:08 PM (#4301797)
See this is the thing I don't get. Exactly how is it harmful to Obama that Petraeus has to resigns?


Stirs the pot; throws a wildcard into the comfortable lead they were sitting on going into the election.

Now, Ron, since I answered your question:

Do you think the timing of this dropping just after the election was a pure coincidence? Having regard for your good faith in these discussions, I expect an answer from you that is actually responsive, not a dodge like the others did.

Oh I know the right wingers would have assumed that it was some kind of cover for Benghazi, but let's face it they already know the truth and nobody else cares.


Not my bag at all. I haven't said a word about Benghazi, and I don't think the timing of this had anything to do with Benghazi, or anything to do with whether Petraeus testifies on that and in what capacity. I haven't hit Obama over Benghazi at all. My issue has been the timing of the Petraeus thing as relates to the election.

I expect the others to link me to buying into a conspiracy floated by the right wing about Benghazi, but I didn't expect it from you.
   7751. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4301801)
I expect an answer from you that is actually responsive, not a dodge like the others did.


I dodged a bit I admit- I have seen zero evidence that it was anything but a coincidence- but i think it is plausible that there may have been a politically motivated delay

but others did not- some openly said that yes they thought to was a coincidence+ others said it was entirely plausible that someone decided to not tell Obama until after the ellection.

Oh I know the right wingers would have assumed that it was some kind of cover for Benghazi, but let's face it they already know the truth and nobody else cares.

Not my bag at all. I haven't said a word about Benghazi, and I don't think the timing of this had anything to do with Benghazi,


You may not be in that camp, but I'm sure that you are aware that there are folks on the right convinced that Benghazi is or has the potential to be a presidency destroying scandal- so to them this whole Petraeous thing HAS to be connected to Benghazi
   7752. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4301802)
It may not have been harmful (in terms of reelection), but if he had to resign before the election it would have created a lot of uncertainty, and a ton of headaches.


Yes. All I've said is that pre-election it creates a lot of uncertainty. I don't think there is a Big Scandal here; I just think they may have kept it quiet for election purposes. I don't think that's impeachable or treason or anything, just dirty politics. Because as soon as this comes out, Petraeus has to resign, and it throws a monkey wrench into the smooth sailing they were doing leading up to the election.

Why this is met with an OH MY GOD VAST RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY LOON LOON LOON reaction is left as an exercise for the reader.
   7753. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:19 PM (#4301803)
I dodged a bit I admit- I have seen zero evidence that it was anything but a coincidence- but i think it is plausible that there may have been a politically motivated delay


Then - gasp! - you aren't disagreeing with me.

but others did not- some openly said that yes they thought to was a coincidence+ others said it was entirely plausible that someone decided to not tell Obama until after the ellection.


Then, here again, those "others" are not disagreeing with me. "It's plausible" is all I'm saying.
   7754. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:20 PM (#4301804)
#7742 is correct. Caesar was one of the blueprints for using invasion of foreign territory and collection of spoils of war for political gain in the Senate. His books about his experiences invading Britain became his LinkedIn page of the ancient world.
   7755. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:21 PM (#4301806)
That's what law enforcement folks keep telling me, but lawyers keep telling me that if it weren't for premature confessions (and rats), just about no one would go to jail.


Okay, if this is a matter of law enforcement, never, under any circumstance should you cop to it. Tell them all to #### right off. But if you're wife comes to you and is like "honey, what's this draft email I found in this account that was open on your work laptop?" Sharp edge, clean cut, cauterize the wound. Don't be a ##### about it.
   7756. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:22 PM (#4301808)
Having regard for your good faith in these discussions, I expect an answer from you that is actually responsive, not a dodge like the others did.


Just to be clear, Ray. I'm not dodging your question. I'm mocking you for thinking it's an important question.
   7757. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:23 PM (#4301811)
People, Julius Caesar went to BRITAIN...not England. There were no English (Angles, Saxons, Jutes) there until the sixth century, and no English nation until King Alfred.
   7758. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:27 PM (#4301817)
Just to be clear, Ray. I'm not dodging your question. I'm mocking you for thinking it's an important question.


Then regardless of how "important" or non-serious the question is, what's your answer?
   7759. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:27 PM (#4301820)
People, Julius Caesar went to BRITAIN...not England. There were no English (Angles, Saxons, Jutes) there until the sixth century, and no English nation until King Alfred.


Well, aren't you the smartypants? The last 2 posters mentioning the subject specifically said Britain, not England.

edit: oh, and, "King of the who?"
   7760. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:30 PM (#4301823)
Why should the notion that a politically motivated delay could plausibly have happened vault it ahead in believeability over the numerous other things that could plausibly happened - and for which their is actual testimony?
   7761. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:34 PM (#4301829)
Do you think the timing of this dropping just after the election was a pure coincidence? Having regard for your good faith in these discussions, I expect an answer from you that is actually responsive, not a dodge like the others did.
Man.

The thanks I get for humoring a paranoid (on issues that might favor the right).

I expect the others to link me to buying into a conspiracy floated by the right wing about Benghazi, but I didn't expect it from you.
You forgot to capitalize The Others.
   7762. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:35 PM (#4301830)
This thread can get to 12K posts by 11/30, according to Nate Silver.
   7763. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:39 PM (#4301837)
Why should the notion that a politically motivated delay could plausibly have happened vault it ahead in believeability over the numerous other things that could plausibly happened - and for which their is actual testimony?


Because that makes Ray's fee-fees feel better.

(I've just referred to Robot-Boy's fee-fees. We are through the looking glass, people!)
   7764. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:43 PM (#4301841)
Just saw pictures of Jill Kelley. She really looks like a woman who really likes sex. 'Full of juice', as we say. As for Petraeus, I just saw a photo of him with a woman who looked like his mother--turned out to be his wife. What's a middle-aged man to do?

Speaking of trials in absentia, does anyone know of a decent article on the subject for a layperson not ignorant of the law, but not extremely well-versed in it, either?

   7765. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:48 PM (#4301848)
Just saw pictures of Jill Kelley. She really looks like a woman who really likes sex. 'Full of juice', as we say.


I can not disagree with this assessment. The fact that she has an identical twin pretty much places them squarely in the "if not successful social climbers due to sexual abilities, probably porn stars" bracket.
   7766. Langer Monk Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:51 PM (#4301853)
More about FBI regs here:

The sources said agents followed department guidelines that generally bar sharing information about developing criminal investigations. The FBI is also aware of its history under former director J. Edgar Hoover of playing politics and digging into the lives of public figures. As one official said, the rules are designed to protect people (both private and elected officials) when negative information about them arises in the course of a criminal investigation that is not a crime.
   7767. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 13, 2012 at 08:07 PM (#4301872)
Alfred was King of Wessex and the first English king to rule anything like a unified English nation. East Anglia, Mercia, Kent, Northumbria, and all the rest of the tiny Anglo-Saxon kingdoms had a lot of incentive to unite due to the Danish invasions, and Alfred had the strength and charisma to more or less pullit off. He was the first King to take the title King of the English and wrote treatises sbout the need to read and write in English instead of Latin.
   7768. Poulanc Posted: November 13, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4301884)
I'm asking whether a decision was made to keep him in the dark about it until after the election.


Alright. I'll try again.

Yes. Pure coincidence.

Now my question(s) for you :

I want to investigate and figure out who deserves blame, including Obama. If he didn't know about this until after the election, he set up a system of willful blindness. If he did know about it, that raises another problem.


Why do you feel there is someone to 'blame'? Why do you think Obama set up the system, and what is the other 'problem' if he did know about it?
   7769. smileyy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4301908)
7764/7765 It must be awful living in fear of your life ending if you ever lose snugness or suction.
   7770. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 13, 2012 at 08:55 PM (#4301934)
lawyers keep telling me that if it weren't for premature confessions (and rats), just about no one would go to jail.

Far fewer people would go to jail without trial, anyway. Which would be fine with me.
   7771. spike Posted: November 13, 2012 at 08:56 PM (#4301935)
Oh look, it got weirder.
   7772. Mefisto Posted: November 13, 2012 at 08:57 PM (#4301939)
In addition to the FBI regs, I posted a few pages back a quote from the WSJ showing that Bush's AG (Mukasey) ordered the FBI and CIA not to tell the President of pending investigations.
   7773. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:01 PM (#4301943)
Just saw pictures of Jill Kelley. She really looks like a woman who really likes sex. 'Full of juice', as we say.

That little "I'm getting my picture took!" head-tilt gets me every time.
   7774. SteveF Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4301944)
Between the secret service and the CIA, I am beginning to see the merits of having an elite military force comprised solely of eunuchs, GRR Martin style.
   7775. Morty Causa Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:04 PM (#4301945)
   7776. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4301948)
7764/7765 It must be awful living in fear of your life ending if you ever lose snugness or suction.


There are exercises a woman can do for that problem.
   7777. Morty Causa Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4301971)
Between the secret service and the CIA, I am beginning to see the merits of having an elite military force comprised solely of eunuchs, GRR Martin style.


That's who the world needs to be run by--eunuchs and Monty Pythonish Hell's Grannies.
   7778. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4301990)
7764/7765 It must be awful living in fear of your life ending if you ever lose snugness or suction.

There are exercises a woman can do for that problem.
Remove her dentures?

Anyone else surprised that Those Exercises aren't handed down like holy writs from mother to daughter? It would be like dad failing to tell you there was an exercise that made your penis larger.

In addition to the FBI regs, I posted a few pages back a quote from the WSJ showing that Bush's AG (Mukasey) ordered the FBI and CIA not to tell the President of pending investigations.
So Bush was in on it. What's your point?
   7779. Howie Menckel Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:52 PM (#4301995)

thread is useless without

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/petraeus-wife-holly-furious-affair-article-1.1200586

in the first one, Mrs Petreus looks like a tourist who just stumbled upon some "cool kids" and talked her way into the picture.

In the second one, she looks like a proud mama [but that's actually Mr. Kelley] trying to stay positive even with his choice in spouses [that's Mrs. Kelley], being a God-fearing woman and all..

   7780. Langer Monk Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:02 PM (#4301998)
So Bush was in on it. What's your point?


Just a matter of time before the Reverse Vampires show their involvement...
   7781. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM (#4302006)
a decision was made

Because all conspiracies work best in the passive voice.


Eric Holder knew. Is that specific enough for you? Holder apparently didn't inform Obama.
   7782. rr Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4302007)
Jon Stewart reflects on his Jan 25 interview with Broadwell:

“In case anyone out there thought I may have actual journalist’s instincts, I give you a quick snippet of my interview,” Stewart said, gearing up to point out every innuendo that appeared in the interview. “I had her right there talking about how thick a coat of awesomesauce Patraeus is bathed in — the thing never crossed my [expletive] mind!”

“I am the worst journalist in the world,” he concluded.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/tv-column/post/jon-stewart-looks-back-on-his-interview-with-paula-broadwell-video/2012/11/13/8902a718-2d9e-11e2-89d4-040c9330702a_blog.html

   7783. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:17 PM (#4302009)
“I had her right there talking about how thick a coat of awesomesauce Patraeus is bathed in — the thing never crossed my [expletive] mind!”


I would have loved to have seen the look on her face if he jokingly said something like "Sounds like you got a bit of a crush on the guy!".
   7784. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:24 PM (#4302018)
In the second one, she looks like a proud mama [but that's actually Mr. Kelley] trying to stay positive even with his choice in spouses [that's Mrs. Kelley], being a God-fearing woman and all..


Look. I know I'm not suppose to speak for transgenders, or gays, or lesbians, or whatever oppressed minority it is we're defending these days, but by god, I feel I can speak for heterosexual white men, goddammit. And you know what. Ain't a white, heterosexual man alive that goes home with *that* wife when *that* woman is rubbing your inner thigh suggestively. None. Anyone says different is ####### lying.
   7785. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4302026)
.
   7786. Lassus Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:38 PM (#4302030)
The fact that she has an identical twin pretty much places them squarely in the "if not successful social climbers due to sexual abilities, probably porn stars" bracket.

I can't imagine why women don't hang out here.


Ain't a white, heterosexual man alive that goes home with *that* wife when *that* woman is rubbing your inner thigh suggestively. None. Anyone says different is ####### lying.

No, really.
   7787. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:39 PM (#4302031)
Gotta hand it to Sean Hannity. His wife is hotter than the mistresses these clown generals ended up with.

   7788. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:41 PM (#4302034)
I can't imagine why women don't hang out here.


They don't like sports and have no sense of humor?

Newsflash, Lassus: women are interested in athletes, not athletics. And certainly they are not interested in joining geeks on a website who call themselves "primates" and yell past each other.
   7789. rr Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4302036)
Broadwell is a high achiever, as one would expect:

Broadwell graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point in 1995. She majored in political geography.[10] She earned a master's degree in international security from the University of Denver's Josef Korbel School of International Studies in 2006.[11][12] She earned a Master of Public Administration from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University in 2008.[13][14] Broadwell is a Research Associate in the Kennedy School's Center for Public Leadership Fellows.[15] In 2008, she entered the Ph.D. program at Department of War Studies at King's College London.[16]


She has also been all over the world with the military, and is a physical fitness wiz, who kickboxes etc.
   7790. DevilInABlueCap Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:47 PM (#4302041)
Newsflash, Lassus: women are interested in athletes, not athletics. And certainly they are not interested in joining geeks on a website who call themselves "primates" and yell past each other.


???
   7791. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:49 PM (#4302043)
I can't imagine why women don't hang out here.


Is this the part where you pull that concerned pony-tail guy bullshit and hope she's into sensitive types more than the bad boy cartoons? Because man, I just love that part of the program. Later we can talk about evolution and the end of desire or something.

Equality is taking the same punch in the face I deliver to Ray Ray and laughing about it after.
   7792. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:51 PM (#4302046)
She majored in political geography.


The ####?

She has also been all over the world with the military, and is a physical fitness wiz, who kickboxes etc.


All the guys talking down to her attractiveness are looking at the badly composed snapshots and the oily complexion from action photos and ignoring the fact that her body is solid state physics below the fold.
   7793. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4302049)
Broadwell is a high achiever, as one would expect:


No, she isn't, and why in the world would one "expect" this? As far as I can tell from Amazon, she's written exactly one book - and I use the term "written" loosely since her Petraeus book was ghost written.

I've heard of public figures such as athletes using ghost writers; I've never heard of actual authors doing so. Indeed, it makes no sense.

Nor has she been impressive or exuded intellectualism in her interviews about this book.

Nor did she act professionally, obviously, in covering her subject.


Broadwell graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point in 1995. She majored in political geography.[10] She earned a master's degree in international security from the University of Denver's Josef Korbel School of International Studies in 2006.[11][12] She earned a Master of Public Administration from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University in 2008.[13][14] Broadwell is a Research Associate in the Kennedy School's Center for Public Leadership Fellows.[15] In 2008, she entered the Ph.D. program at Department of War Studies at King's College London.[16]


A bunch of useless, basket-weaving degrees.
   7794. Shredder Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4302054)
A bunch of useless, basket-weaving degrees.
As opposed to, say, a law degree? I have one of those, and they're pretty much less than useless.
   7795. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:05 PM (#4302056)
As opposed to, say, a law degree? I have one of those, and they're pretty much less than useless.


Broadwell could ride her current status to a lifetime of ease, consultantcy gigs and speaking fees and never work another day in her life. Isn't that like, libertarian Yahtzee!?
   7796. Lassus Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:07 PM (#4302060)
Is this the part where you pull that concerned pony-tail guy ######## and hope she's into sensitive types more than the bad boy cartoons? Because man, I just love that part of the program. Later we can talk about evolution and the end of desire or something.

This is both ridiculous and boring. I expect better from you than "disliking an extreme puts you solidly at the opposite extreme."
   7797. formerly dp Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:07 PM (#4302061)
A bunch of useless, basket-weaving degrees.

Either this is a joke, or you're really that stupid. Hoping for the former, betting on the latter.
   7798. Howie Menckel Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4302062)

another Broadwell accolade, in NY tabloid fashion

"They nailed it! Paula Broadwell voted ‘most likely to be remembered’ in high school"

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/paula-broadwell-voted-remembered-high-school-article-1.1200771




   7799. Lassus Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4302063)
A bunch of useless, basket-weaving degrees.

What sort of degrees do you find more awesome, worthwhile, and difficult? CPA? MBA? Be still my heart.
   7800. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:10 PM (#4302067)
This is both ridiculous and boring.


Ridiculous is par for the course, but boring is a real insult.
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